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24 Dec 17 11:36
Date Joined: 09 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 426 | Blogger: kw's blog
Well it's a boring xmas eve and touring the net I found out that Adrien Massey has revived his site to allow race profiling for free. I tried messing with this a few years ago with mixed results. I note several firms are following this as systems for sale and am wondering whether to take another look. Suggestions???
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Report kw January 24, 2018 11:30 AM GMT
A mixed bag today which will hopefully show a profit.


1.55 -- Pinch of Ginger, So Satisfied, Smugglers Stash, Spirit Of Hale, Major Ridge
2.30 -- Sakhees City
3.00 -- Cracking Find
4.05 -- Bering Upson, Aza Run, Notebook, Hey Bob

So 11 selections across 4 races which hopefully someone can reduce still further.

Good Luck All
Report kw January 24, 2018 4:23 PM GMT
Well a couple of Non Runners and two 11/2 winners shows a profit of 4 points at ISP and 5.56 at BS P
Latest Totals

Stakes 254 Profit / Loss ( - 19.00 ) @ ISP

Back tomorrow
Report kw January 25, 2018 10:36 AM GMT
Well a very quiet day today with only one qualifier

Kelso 1.15 -- Landecker

Hopefully a winner. Good luck
Report kw January 25, 2018 2:39 PM GMT
4 Points profit at ISP and 4.91 at BSP. Running Totals
Stakes 255 Profit / Loss ( - 15.00 )
Report kw January 26, 2018 10:49 AM GMT
From famine to feast with the number of selections today. I will leave you lot to sort the wheat from the chaff but I will be recording them all as bets at ISP


2.40 -- Pougne Bobbi, Cusheen Bridge
3.50 -- Larry, First Assignment, Natter Jack Croak, Potters Hedger


12.55 -- Doktor Glaz, Thomas Blossom, Glimpse Of Gold, Dalkadam
3.05 --  Bako De La Saulaie, Shanroe In Milan, Amber Gambler, Baileys Concerto
3.40 -- Fit For Fifty
4.10 -- One of Us

So a total of 16 selections with a few Fc / Tricasts thrown in.
Report kw January 26, 2018 4:23 PM GMT
A small profit today of 1.2 points at ISP and 2.17 at BSP
Current running totals
Stakes 271 Profit / Loss ( - 13.80 ).  All at ISP which is the toughest challenge.
Report kw January 27, 2018 11:02 AM GMT
Well today is very strange. I expected plenty of qualifiers but those that do qualify are clumped in the same races. Perhaps you can sort them further on form, gut feeling or whatever. I list them all as singles at SP


1.50 -- Frodon, Shantou Flyer, Kingd Odyssey, Casse Tete, Coo Star Sivola, Drumlee Sunset
4.10 -- Clondaw Castle


3.50 -- Big Martre, Double W's, Duke Of Navan, Movie Legend


2.20 -- Big Meadow, Ceann Sibheal, Sam Noir
4.00 -- Special Wells

Hopefully a profit amongst them but some big prices in there as well. We shall see. Good luck to everyone.
Report kw January 27, 2018 4:30 PM GMT
Well a winning day can't be bad. Profit 3.50 @ ISP and 6.80 @ BSP
Running Totals now

Stakes 286 Pofit / Loss ( - 10.30 ). All at ISP. In profit at BSP

Not going too badly. A really good week. With regard to the question " does race profiling work " I guess I am beginning to be persuaded especially if I can sort some of the selections a bit further.
Any comments????????
Report raspberrybottom January 27, 2018 6:42 PM GMT
Well done, kw. good results and good thread. Happy
Report kw January 27, 2018 11:15 PM GMT
Gonna be out early tomorrow ( Sunday ) and not back till mid meeting so here are the selections for Sunday


1.10 -- The New Pharoah
1.40 -- Beau Bay, Prairie Town
3.10 -- Viens Chercher, Tornado In Milan, Discoverie, Cash Again
4.10 -- Princess Mononoke

So 8 selections. Good Luck
Report kw January 28, 2018 4:27 PM GMT
What great results today. Winners at 4/1, 14/1 and 15/8 shows an ISP profit on the day of 14.88 and a BSP profit of 21.47

Running Totals now
Stakes 294 Profit / Loss + 4.58 at ISP which is really quite good. BSP profit much more than that.

Nearly 300 selections and a profit means I really need to try to fathom this further. Any suggestions gratefully recieved

Back tomorrow
Report kw January 29, 2018 10:36 AM GMT
Morning all. Quite a few selections today. Hopefully the good run continues. Feeling a little more confidant in the process as I would have expected to be perhaps 30 points or more down at this stage. When I worked in the industry they reckoned to get between 15 and 20% out of staked bets gross. Anyway the exercise continues with:


3.25 -- No Buts, Tambura, Clondaw Bisto, Sandhurst Lad
3.55 -- Frank n Fair, Clondaw Rigger
4.25 -- Blue April, Flight To Nowhere


2.40 -- Snapdragon Fire
3.10 -- Becauseshesaidso, Nansaroy
3.40 -- Houblon Des Obeaux, Good to Know, Another Venture, Regal Flow

15 selections in all. Good luck everyone
Report kw January 29, 2018 4:36 PM GMT
Had to happen I guess following a brilliant run. Only one small price winner and a loss at ISP of 12.12 points. Running totals at ISP now:

Stakes 309 Profit / Loss ( - 7.54 ) at ISP. Still profitable at BSP.

Back tomorrow
Report kw January 30, 2018 10:10 AM GMT
Hopefully results will be better today. Can't find much to recommend chases at Newcastle and having had another look at results  at Plumpton, hurdles races are marginal and I should perhaps have been more cautious yesterday. Anyway it's a learning exercise so lesson learned for the future. Today's selections are:


2.05 -- Northandsouth
2.40 -- Very Live, Kings Cross
3.45 -- Ruby Rambler, Weyburn, Finnegans Garden
4.15 -- Stolberg, Project Mars, Landscape

3.05 -- Skipthescales, Tailor Tom
4.05 -- Lord County,  Heartasia

So 13 selections in all. Good Luck
Report kw January 30, 2018 4:33 PM GMT
A profit of 5.58 at ISP and 8.45 at BSP for today so the current running totals are

Stakes 312 Profit / Loss ( - 1.96 ) at ISP with good profits at BSP.

Interestingly Northandsouth was available at 10/1 + earlier in the day. Perhaps it is worth looking at Bedt Odds Guaranteed prices to see if there is an advantage over even BSP. Anybody any comments
Report kw January 30, 2018 4:34 PM GMT
Sorry total stakes are 322 not 312. Fat Fingers
Report kw January 31, 2018 7:57 AM GMT
Today's selections


3.10 -- Shanroe Street
3.45 -- Road To Gold


1.45 -- Head To The Stars, Du Soleil
3.25 -- Lord Bryan, Bestwork
3.55 -- Dark Invader, Chandos Belle

So 8 selections today. Good Luck
Report kw January 31, 2018 9:50 PM GMT
Awfull day today. Current totals

Stakes 330 Profit / Loss ( - 9.96 )

Back tomorrow with hopefully better results
Report kw February 1, 2018 11:06 AM GMT
Hopefully can get back on track after yesterday's poor attempt though there is nothing exciting about today's selections.


4.00 -- Heurtevant


1.50 -- Persian Delight,
3.00 -- Captain Cattistock
3.35 -- Vic De Touzaine, Le Boizelo

So just the 5 selections. Good luck
Report kw February 1, 2018 5:06 PM GMT
A loss of 3.27 @ ISP so not a good day. Thought we were gonna have a good winner at Towcester but caught by the rag of the field. Frustrating.

Running totals now

Stakes 335
Profit / Loss ( - 13.23 )

Back tomorrow
Report kw February 2, 2018 10:17 AM GMT
A few selections today in races where there is an odds on Fav included. Not all the short ones win so although it is tempting to leave some selections out the right course is to still back them all and if the Fav wins then take the loss on the chin.


2.55 -- Kansas City Chief, Planet Nine, Dark Sunset
3.30 -- Same Circus
4.05 -- Iskabeg Lane, Tommy The Rascal
4.35 -- Derrynane, Perseid, Flying Verse


2.45 -- Modeligo
3.20 -- Qiiz Master
3.55 -- All Kings

That's 12 selections in all. Good Luck
Report kw February 2, 2018 4:49 PM GMT
Another loss of 2.62. This week has seen a steady drip feed of losses and once again I must doubt the ability to make a profit though at BSP the figures are still positive. Also I would advise that 2 of the selections this morning ultimately drifted in the market to such an extent that they became non selections. I still include them in my figures though. I guess this will happen sometimes as I am trying to put things up early so I can't be accused of after timing. Any way current standings are

Stakes 347 Profit / Loss ( - 15.85 ) at ISP

Back tomorrow.
Report kw February 3, 2018 9:02 AM GMT
Morning all. Unfortunately I have to go out early so I have had to make a few assumptions on today's selections about likely SP's, number of runners etc.


1.15 -- Big Jim
3.35 -- Sametegal
4.10 -- Kapcorse


1.35 -- Knockgratton, Mercian Prince


2.05 -- Sir Chauvelin
2.45 -- Marracudja, Solar Impulse
3.45 -- Kalaniti

So 9 selections in all.  Those are definite qualifiers. There could be another 1 or 2 if there are changes but I will be back to mono tor those and will post again if there are any additions. Good luck for the day whatever you back.
Report kw February 3, 2018 4:01 PM GMT
Adding Hold Back The River to the 4.10 Sandown. Sorry it's late
Report kw February 3, 2018 4:24 PM GMT
Hit the bar again with the late selection. Finished up with a loss of 2.62 so running totals are now

Stakes 357 Profit / Loss ( - 18.47 )
Report kw February 4, 2018 10:29 AM GMT
Well we go again today with lots of handicaps on the cards.


3.10 -- Jump For Dough
3.45 -- Ready Token, Gorsky Island, By The Boardwalk


1.40 -- Groundunderrepair, Quinto, It's Obvious, Camron De Chaillac
2.15 -- Ruby ****, Born To Size
2.50 -- Friday Night Light
3.25 -- Prince Malone, Vice Et Vertu, Royalraise
4.00 -- Minellatillmorning
4.30 -- Flanagans Field

So 16 selections. There is a slight possibilities of a change or two but I will be on to update if that happens. By the way I do back all these selections
At BSP to keep it real. Good Luck All.
Report kw February 4, 2018 7:26 PM GMT
Poor again today with only the one winner. Sets me back to where I was a couple of weeks ago at ISP.

Current position

Stakes 373 Profit / Loss ( - 29.47 ) at ISP

Must admit to feeling less confidant about the outcome of this investigation.
Back tomorrow
Report kw February 5, 2018 9:57 AM GMT
Not to many selections today. They do include what look like a couple of no hopers. I really feel as though I can leave some of these out but I've never really been a form student. More like a maths man. Anybody out there who can narrow these down further?


3.20 -- Sky Full Of Stars


2.30 -- Myroundorurs, Frontline
4.05 -- Corlay, Supakalanistic, Lex Talionis
4.35 -- Miss Fleming, Tara Well, Bonnie Black Rose

9 selections. Hoping for a change of luck. Good Luck All
Report kw February 5, 2018 5:06 PM GMT
So only 1 winner at 13/2 gives us a 1.5 loss at ISP. BSP was 9.18 so a small profit
Current position

Stakes 382 Profit / Loss 30.97 @ ISP
Report kw February 6, 2018 10:52 AM GMT
Hopefully I am due a turn in fortunes.


1.40 -- Fiddlers Flight
2.10 -- Sleep In First, Black Kettle
3.15 -- Cash Again
4.20 -- Turtle Cask, Broadway Belle

Market Rasen

2.20 -- Flemerina, Appletree Lane
3.25 -- Craggaknock, Future Society

10 selections in all. Good Luck All.
Report kw February 6, 2018 4:25 PM GMT
Stuffed again. Pity Sedgefield was off. Anyway current standings

Stakes 386 Profit / Loss ( - 34.97 )

Will keep this going till end of February and then make a decision as that would seem to have been a real trial
Report kw February 8, 2018 10:47 AM GMT
Back into action after yesterday's abandonments with what appear to be runners with chances. We'll see.

4.40 -- Hartside, Teescomponents Max
2.50 -- Red Indian, Wilde Blue Yonder
3.20 -- Bally Gilbert
4.00 -- Bonds Conquest
4.35 -- Gonnabegood

7 selections in all. Good Luck
Report kw February 8, 2018 9:14 PM GMT
A couple of winners and a non runner gives a profit of 2.50
Current figures

Stakes 392 Profit / Loss ( - 32.47 )

Unfortunately missed a couple of winners due to late market changes but I guess that's the way the cookie crumbles unless you want to sit in front of the computer all day. Back tomorrow
Report kw February 9, 2018 11:39 AM GMT
Strange day today with several selections in the same race. I  will leave you to narrow them down but I will include all in my figures


2.10 -- Catching On, Astigos
3.50 -- Walsingham Grange, Giorvina


1.20 -- The Brothers, No Hiding Place
3.00 -- Smart Boy, Broken Quest, Fly Du Charmil, Cornish Warrior
3.30 -- all except numbers 5 and 6

So 15 selections. Good Luck
Report DFCIRONMAN February 9, 2018 12:54 PM GMT
kw.....Don't really see point in 3.00 race having the top 4 in market.

As no idea how you are arriving at selections, then hard to give any "advice" on what you are doing....other than YOU must try to cut down number of selections per race.

If the 4 in 3.00 race was a TRICAST or TRIFECTA combination bet.....then that would be a "reason" to have 4.

As a lot of RAIN expected in South East, then going might be HEAVY by off time. This makes it hard to make a choice NOW......perhaps market is based on HEAVY going???

Would not be surprised if none of 4 wins......IF going HEAVY......FAVOURITE may well win by the off time.....

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN February 9, 2018 1:04 PM GMT
Trainer for SEARCHING has 3 runners perhaps SEARCHING might be in with a chance today, as lightly raced...and going and distance MIGHT ssuit if near HEAVY going today by off time.

Report kw February 9, 2018 4:09 PM GMT
Thanks for the comments ironman. I am listing all the qualifiers under the original premise whilst in the background I am trying to find a way to reduce the number of selections. 3.00 race actually showed a profit. 3.30 race with 5 selections was the one that really needed sorting.

Anyway today gives a small loss of 0.50 @ ISP and a 1.47 profit @ BSP

Current totals

Stakes 407 Profit / Loss ( - 32.97 )
Report kw February 9, 2018 4:15 PM GMT
Re 3.00 race one of the profitable criteria is a price of 2/1 to 10/1 so if I had been playing live rather than early then strictly speaking Fly Du Charmil would not have been a selection.
Report DFCIRONMAN February 10, 2018 9:45 AM GMT
Thanks for reply kw.

Even more confused you say 1 of your criteria for selection is the price has to be 2-1 SP to 10-1 SP......" so if I had been playing live rather than early then strictly speaking Fly Du Charmil would not have been a selection".

As the above horse was 7-1 SP, did that not make it a "qualifying" selection?

I suspect you will say that there were "other factors" that did not make it a "qualifying selection".......This would be fair enough.....BUT makes it very hard to give ANY "advice" / "ideas" on what you are doing!
Report kw February 10, 2018 10:45 AM GMT
Ironman. Sorry about that. Misread the SP of Fly somehow so would have been selection. With regard to "how" all I am using is the various sorts available on Arian Massey site reviewing all the runners and then using the filters. For example say there have been 150 runners with a weight between 10:8 and 11: 3 with only 5 winners with a return of 40% ROI then I will remove them from calculations. I gradually whittle down the field and what is left are the possibles. It is at this point that I need a further look. Anyway hope that explains a bit. Today's are


1.20 -- Lerichi Belle ( if Fav or JF )
2.30 -- Greyed A, Mr Love, Pine Warbler, Ceann Sibheal -- Max 25/1
3.05 -- Spectator ( if Fav or JF )
4.45 -- Jaunty Thor


1.50 -- Talkischeap, Theeaglehaslanded ( only if 1st 5 in betting as described by Adrian )
4.10 -- Duke Des Champs, Reigning Supreme ( 1st 4 in betting )


4.50 -- Vado Forte, The Dubai Way, Not Never ( 1st 5 in betting )

I have added the actual criteria that may effect the selections for info. I have backed them all anyway but maybe some will become non selections at the off but I am trying to find something where I can place bets and then get on with life. I will include all selections in my results. Have been thinking of taking my selections and then looking at some sort of trainer form stats or weight when compared to last win or something.
Report kw February 10, 2018 11:00 AM GMT
On trying to narrow things further I just had a quick look at Lerichi Belle. The trainer has had 6 Favs run at the track since 2012 with 3 winners. This can be improved on all winners were 2/1 to 11/4 and again as 3 of 4 were winners last time out. Is it relevant. I don't know.
Report DFCIRONMAN February 10, 2018 11:26 AM GMT
Btn    Horse Name        TFR        Tfig    Jockey    Age    Wgt    ISP    BSP    Hi/Lo
Pedigree    Trainer    (Equip)    (OR)    (Place)
1    Ryan Winks silk        7. MODULUS    <    premium content    >    premium content    Ryan Winks (7)    8    10-11    9/2     BSP
Peter Winks    (v)    (90)
2    Andrew Glassonbury silk    12    4. AIRPUR DESBOIS (FR)    <    premium content    >    premium content    Andrew Glassonbury    7    11-3    8/1     BSP
Oliver Greenall    (s+t)    (96)
3    Thomas Dowson silk    1¾    9. MAN IN BLACK (FR)    <    premium content    >    premium content    Thomas Dowson (5)    8    10-5    8/1     BSP
Philip Kirby    (s)    (84)
4    Jamie Bargary silk    19    3. SWORD OF THE LORD    <    premium content    >    premium content    Jamie Bargary (3)    7    11-11    9/2     BSP


As going is described as HEAVY, and from TIMEFORM the previous race WINNER and other 3 home can be obtained by clicking on FORM & RESULTS on the 1.20 pm race.......then perhaps that might be more relevant information to consider.

It is a NOVICE H/C HURDLE race, so the market probably gets the winner in top 3 in market.

PREVIOUS RACE WINNERS is a useful source of information on races......

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN February 10, 2018 12:02 PM GMT
There are at least 40 FACTORS in weighing up ( RATING and SELECTING) a race.

This is just my opinion, so if you are "profiling" just based on say under 10 FACTORS.....IMO you need to bring in more FACTORS to end up with the horse or horses that may well finish in top 3/4 of a race. 

GOING clearly is the FACTOR that VARIES in UK , therefor you have to be aware of changes in GOING that can effect outcomes.

It is good that you are using ODDS and other filters to try to narrow down selections.

GL with the process.
Report kw February 10, 2018 2:31 PM GMT
Re 1.20. The quick look this morning indicated that 3 out of 6 of his previous Fav runners were winners lot. So is there an argument that this should have been a non selection as it did not win. Then 1.50 provided a conundrum. Winner selected was 5th best while other selection was 6th. Fine except that just before the off the positions in the betting were the other way round. When should the bet be placed?? Still a good start.
Report kw February 10, 2018 5:10 PM GMT
A better day today with 3 winners and a profit of 11 points @ ISP and 16.29 points @ BSP

Also a couple would have been non qualifiers but I have not omitted them from my figures. Current position

Stakes 420 Profit / Loss ( - 21.97 ) @ ISP
Report DFCIRONMAN February 10, 2018 5:35 PM GMT
The Eaglehaslanded

D 1 tip

Sam Twiston-Davies
Paul Nicholls

1 tip

Wayne Hutchinson
Alan King

Sorry for above mess!!!!!

Where closely matched in have to use other FACTORS to separate them so you end up backing the "right" one according to all the FACTORS.

The GOING would be one way to do was teeming RAIN at Newbury and must have been nearer HEAVY going and not SOFT!

Really all the FACTORS should be used to separate them...........

WD today.....
Report raspberrybottom February 10, 2018 10:40 PM GMT
Well done today kw.

And enjoying the thread.Happy
Report kw February 11, 2018 10:32 AM GMT
Well not a lot going on today. Only a few qualifiers.


5.00 -- Bertalus


3.35 -- Dadsintrouble, Present Times

These are selected using the original criteria and are what I have backed. However with so few runners I have made an attempt to look deeper and with a strong head on would only perhaps back Present Times. Trained by Evan Williams who has a 10 wins from 34 runner strike rate. The winners are usually in the 1st 4 in the betting and who has a return on investment of 176%. We shall see. Good Luck to all. Any suggestions gratefully recieved.
Report kw February 11, 2018 6:02 PM GMT
No good today although I suppose I could have saved 2 points

Current standings

Stakes 423 Profit /  Loss ( - 24.97 )

Back tomorrow
Report kw February 12, 2018 10:50 AM GMT
Morning all. A mixed selection today with hopefully some profit.


2.35 -- The Dawn Man
3.35 -- Monfass, Bonne Question, Gran Maestro
5.05 -- Earthmoves


3.20 -- Graasten, Ding Ding
3.50 -- Two Hoots, Sir Hubert
4.20 -- Sartorial Elegance, Sandhurst Lad, Achille
4.50 -- Third Act, Kalarinks

So 14 selections in all. Hopefully you can sort them further
Report kw February 12, 2018 5:00 PM GMT
A couple of winners so no real damage done and in fact a small profit at BSP. There were at least a couple that could have probably safely been left out. Current standing

Stakes 437 Profit / Loss ( - 26.97 )
Report kw February 14, 2018 10:23 AM GMT
Morning all. A bit of a messy day today with a few that I can't see winning which I am gonna chance omitting. I will not include in figures but will display in brackets for info purposes.


2.00 -- ( Nelly La Rue )
3.30  -- Petapenko, Our Lucas, Sleep in First -- omit if it is 5th best or JT 5th best
4.30 -- Royal Mandate


2.10 -- Goodnight Charlie, Cafe Au Lait
2.40 -- Ceann Sibheal, ( Over My Head )
4.10 -- Lickpenny Larry, ( Canyouhearmenow ) not if 4th or JF Fav

So 8 selections though a couple may turn out to br no bets. Sorry it's messy but that's the way it is. I have backed all at BSP and will trade out if they are non selections. I hope none of the big priced ones oblige but I just can't see them winning. I'm not normally put off by price. Good Luck
Report kw February 14, 2018 5:07 PM GMT
Came close in a couple of races but at the end of the day nil returns
Current position
Stakes 445 Profit /  Loss ( - 34.97 )
Hopefully racing will beat the weather tomorrow .
Report kw February 15, 2018 10:01 AM GMT
Today's selections


1.40 -- Skipping On
2.15 -- Heavenly Promise
3.55 -- Two Smokin Barrels


4.20 -- Shocking Times, Kingston ( prices between 2/1 and 14/1 )


3.35 -- Planet Nine, Outnumbered ( NOT Fav -- prices 3/1  to 14/1 )

Good Luck All
Report kw February 16, 2018 10:46 AM GMT
A change of luck needed after yesterday. Today's selections


1.20 -- Gassin Golf, Chieftains Choice, Vicenzo Mio ( not Fav Max 14/1 )
1.50 -- Tara Bridge, Un Beau Roman ( Max 14/1 )
4.05 -- Aubusson, Step Back, Tanit River ( Max 14/1 )


1.40 -- Beyah
3.20 -- Pronceton Royale, Cody Wyoming, Cusheen Bridge, Flaming Charmer ( 2/1 to 25/1 )

Running totals after yesterday
Stakes 449 Profit / Loss ( - 38.97 )
Report kw February 16, 2018 4:26 PM GMT
Well that was annoying with Tanit River returning an SP of 16/1. Outside the max of 14/1 advised. This highlights the problem of advising on prices. I placed bets this morning at BSP as the price was within the criteria. I will not include in the figures as I had posted a maximum price but I will deduct from the 1.20 race as a selection was over the limit there. Hope everyone thinks that's fair.

Current standings then

Stakes 460 Returns today 7.88 Profit / Loss ( - 42.09 )

A bit of a pity but that's the way the cookie crumbles. Hope some of you backed the Tricasts though.
Report DFCIRONMAN February 16, 2018 4:36 PM GMT

NO.....too busy doing stats on other races!

When you have say 3 selections.....then COMBINATION SFC bet type is useful ( 6 bets)

Also taking the 3 plus the FAV ( if not in the 3....) and COMBINATION TRIFECTA ( 24 bets) worth considering.....

GL kw.
Report kw February 17, 2018 10:28 AM GMT
A few selections for today which will hopefully provide a profit one way or the other.


2.25 -- Another Venture, Minella Daddy
4.10 -- Malapie, Mon Palois, Pop Rockstar, Laugharne


3.50 -- Black Ivory, Tommy Rapper, Theo's Charm


1.40 -- Timeforben, Goodgirltereda, The Flame, Stolberg, Jully Les Buxy
3.20 -- Dance Floor King, Gardiners Hill, General Girling
3.55 -- Fortunate George

18 selections in all. Good luck everyone
Report kw February 17, 2018 5:28 PM GMT
A couple of winners and a decent fc cannot hide the disappointment. Had 2 or 3 others trade at odds on in running which I would have hoped would have held on.
Current position
Stakes 478 Profit / Loss ( - 49.09 )
Report kw February 18, 2018 10:09 AM GMT
A mixed bag with today's selections with some that appear very speculative but we shall see.

Ffos Las

3.05 -- Nansaroy
3.35 -- Cold Shoulder
4.40 -- Filatore, Lord Fendale

Market Rasen

2.45 -- Isle Of Ewe, Dahills Hill, Pretty Reckless
3.15 -- Nayati

Good luck
Report kw February 19, 2018 10:53 AM GMT
Poor day yesterday. Going to continue for this week as I am not available the following week. As an exercise I think it has been useful. I think with a bit of common sense and betting at BSP one could probably make some kind of profit. As it stands Stakes 486 Profit / Loss ( - 57.09 )
Anyway today's selections contain some big prices so it will be interesting to see how they perform.


2.30 -- Chasseur De Tete, Beau Saucy, Take A Break, Captain Black
3.00 -- Mahlerdramatic
3.35 -- Blottos
4.05 -- Pokora Du Lye, Call Me
4.40 -- Shanroe Santos, Point The Way

10 selections in all.
Report kw February 20, 2018 10:08 AM GMT
After yesterday's weak efforts we stand at Stakes 496 Profit /  Loss ( - 60.89 ) @ ISP. Today there are quite a few possibilities with 2 races at Taunton proving problematic with regard to the number of selections. Perhaps you can sort them better.


2.00 -- Northandsouth, Instingtive
2.30 -- Hepburn
3.35 -- Dresden
4.40 -- Lunar Flow


3.10 -- Numbers 2,3,7,8 and 9
3.45 -- Unison
4.15 -- Numbers 1,2,3,5 and 8
4.50 -- Bisoubisou, Western Sunrise

Here's hoping for a change in fortune but given the number of selections I have made and the fact that BSP would perform better I feel that there is the basis of a profitable strategy close to hand. Perhaps a closer examination of those selections current form or trainer stats. Anyway in anyone has any clues please get in touch.
Report qqking. February 20, 2018 1:30 PM GMT
You could try using the selections as the basis for a permed placepot?
Report kw February 20, 2018 5:03 PM GMT
Well 4 points profit at ISP and 10.44 at BSP makes it a profitable day. Came very close to a great day with a couple of big priced placed selections.
Current position is Stakes 514 Profit / Loss ( - 56.89 ) @ ISP
Back tomorrow
Report kw February 21, 2018 10:02 AM GMT
Early post today as I am out.


2.50 -- Early Retirement


3.00 -- Voodoo Doll
3.30 -- Popelys Gull, Kapjazz, Horatio Hornblower
4.40 -- Ashoka, Lakefield, Master Of Finance
5.10 -- Monbeg Theatre, Milord, Allez Jaques

So 11 selections with a few that I am sure can be left out. I think that is the key. If I can find a reliable way to remove 40 or so of the selections then I would have something that is reasonably profitable at BSP. That's the next step. If anybody has any easy suggestions then please get in touch.
Report kw February 22, 2018 10:59 AM GMT
Coming towards the end of the sampling now and after yesterday's poor showing we stand at Stakes 525 Profit / Loss 67.89 @ ISP. Well today is gonna be interesting as there are a lot of runners that may not be qualifiers on price. For my own betting I have tried to guess but results on here will be correctly recorded.


1.50 -- 1, 3, 6, 9, 10, or 12 ( Max 25/1 )
2.55 -- 3, 4, 5, 8, or 9 ( Max 23/1 )
3.30 -- 1, 3, 4, 5, or 7 ( Max 25/1 )
4.40 -- 5, 6, or 7 ( 2/1 to 25/1 )


1.40 -- 3 or 6 ( 7/4 to 10/1 )
2.10 -- Captain Sharpe
3.55 -- 2 or 7 ( 6/4 to 10/1 )
5.05 -- 3, 4, 5, or 7 ( Max 25/1 )

Sorry about the ifs, ands and buts but at these 2 tracks it seems to apply more than elsewhere so cannot be ignored. Good Luck all
Report DFCIRONMAN February 22, 2018 12:46 PM GMT
Voodoo Doll yesterday.....20-1 SP 2nd.

2 JT FAVS in 1st and 3rd place.......

EXACTA 101.10....SFC 74.39 returns.

I indicated earlier on thread that if you reduce your "possible" horses down to 2 ONLY, then do COMBINATION EXACTA using FAV (provided not in your 2 "possibles")....then 6 bets......In VOODOO DOLL race had 2 JT 12 bets.

Pretty sure if you checked all your races from thread and had adopted the above "strategy" ONLY , that you would probably be well in profit on thread.

Up to you to narrow down selections to just 2 though..........

GL with future bets.
Report kw February 23, 2018 10:09 AM GMT
Thanks for the advice ironman. As I said the trial comes to an end this weekend and I will then be able to really have a look at past results etc and to try and improve the process. I am reasonably pleased as I am certain that with a bit more work profits are possible. I've been looking at Cheltenham but it looks like  you will have to have many selections in each race. I may come on and give it a go. Anyway that's all for the future. Today's selections are


2.00 -- Zanstra, RobertsStar
4.15 -- Oce Cool Champs, Walt, Bobo Mac
4.50 -- Yanmare


3.00 -- Socksy
4.40 -- Capard King, Twojayslad

Good luck all
Report kw February 24, 2018 10:39 AM GMT
Well annoyed about yesterday as did not have time to post a late qualifier as Dawson City was backed in. Thought in the morning it had no chance of coming in from 25/1 to under 10/1 which was the criteria. Anyway leaving that out  position is now Stakes 548  Profit / Loss 81.06 at ISP. Also has  a couple of decent forecasts as suggested by ironman. Last day of the trial today and adding in the couple of misses as explained and betting at BSP the results would show a small profit so in answer to the question does profiling work the answer is ' possibly '. There is no doubt in my mind that as a basis for beginning the selection process it can greatly reduce the field size to allow closer inspection.
Today's selection


1.15 -- Monbeg Legend, Take To Heart, The Mighty Don
4.10 -- Idliketheotion, Kayf Blanco, Favorito Bucks, Rothman


3.05 -- Pointed And Sharp
3.40 -- Connetable, This Is It, Carnspindle
4.15 -- Savello, Rock On Rocky
4.50 -- Jaunty Thor, Beallandendall,Auenwirbe


3.55 -- Joke Dancer

Good Luck
Report kw February 24, 2018 5:37 PM GMT
Well that was a great last day for the test with 4 good winners and a profit of 18.5 @ ISP and 23.23 @ BSP leaving the position as

Stakes -- 574 ISP Profit / Loss ( - 62.56 )

At BSP we are showing a small profit particularly if  the " Lost " winners are included.

So " does race profiling work " . Well I think with a few tweaks and a closer look at selections that you could probably get a nice return on investment.
My thanks to all who commented / took part and after my break I hope to return with an updated version
Good Luck all.
Report raspberrybottom February 26, 2018 6:20 PM GMT
This was a really interesting thread, kw. Well done!

Hope you come back with your "updated" one. Happy
Report kw March 13, 2018 11:02 AM GMT
Hi All. Still working on the improved version of selection but thought in the meantime I would have a go at the Cheltenham hcps. Easy not. The survey is small as only based back to 2012 but have shown profits every year. The 2.50 today provides no evidence that I can see but the 5.30 throws up 4 possibles
Testify, Report To Base, Western Miller and Jameson

The latter 2 appear on betting to have no chance but we shall see. Anyway good luck for the best meeting in racing
Report DFCIRONMAN March 13, 2018 12:09 PM GMT
Hi kw.....It is the "best" in race meetings.....BUT the hardest with bettingDevilGrin

As you have selected the 5.30 race, then this particularly hard race to take on.



As this is the first time in 6 years( probably more) that the race has been run on such GOING!

6 year olds have won 3 times in last 5 years.........however, on such going probably a 6 yo may not win.

Last 2 years a 7 yo won in 2017 on GOOD and a 9 yo won on GOOD in 2016. The going may well be difficult for a 9 yo to win ( only 1 in race)

There is one  5 yo in race...a MULLINS horse ( French breeding) perhaps might run well .

Plenty 7 and 8 yods in race, and more likely the winner comes from one of them!

Of your 4 selections you have two  7 yods at big odds ( one of them currently outsider in race !). TESTIFY has strong race pattern and is a 7 yo at the lowest of the 2 you have selected. The market might be a good guide to which one runs the best race of the two.

I just have had a stab in the dark......and gone for number 13 on the 13th day.......Ibis Du Rheu As it is currently 13th down the market odds.......that made it a selection in naps competition!DevilGrin

AS also has P NICHOLLS as trainer...and Sam T-D as is a 7 yo that is French Bred and is very lightly raced ( had a damage to leg ), then it appears to be worth a punt in this race.

GL with bets.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 13, 2018 12:32 PM GMT
Of course if you have ignore my "guess"!Tongue Out
Report DFCIRONMAN March 13, 2018 4:50 PM GMT
Looks like a drying wind has HEAVY now SOFT......and that changes the likely winner down to a 6 yo probably!DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
Report DFCIRONMAN March 13, 2018 5:38 PM GMT
YUP....6 yo....

Ibis Du Rheu - finished 5th......HEAVY going was needed!
Report DFCIRONMAN March 13, 2018 5:40 PM GMT
Down to 4.3 IR from BFSP 36......DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
Report kw March 14, 2018 10:48 AM GMT
Not unexpected results yesterday but strangely the non hcps performed well with 3 winners so today I put up everything at Cheltenham in the hope that it may help.

1.30 -- Black Op, Next Destination
2.50 -- Max Dynamite, Voix Du Reve
3.30 -- Douvan
4.50 -- Mitchouka, Turning Gold, Padleyourowncanoue, Grand Sancy, Veneer Of Charm
5.30 -- Max price of 25/1 -- possibles 1,3,5,7,10,18

Good luck all

Sometimes I wish I traded as quite often there are profits to be taken but I am not prepared to sit at the computer all afternoon.ithink Jameson yesterday would have traded quite short during running.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2018 12:29 PM GMT
With 23 RUNNERS in 5.30 race....I suggest a max of 33-1 SP to control selections, especially with GOING being unusual for Cheltenham.

GL kw
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2018 12:58 PM GMT
JAMESON did run a very good race ( a 6 yo ).......No idea what odds it was IR ( if you were a member of TIMEFORM then I think they show how low it was IR in WIN market).

It was just behind IBIS DO RHEU guess that HIT the last fence hard and stopped its momentum, giving JAMESON a chance to catch it in the run in.....but IBIS recovered well enough to draw away again from it in run in.

You don't have to sit in front of TV all day kw.......You can set LAYS using KEEP choice for IR bets.

JAMESON would have been big odds in PLACE market when at 40 SP in WIN market.....and there were 5 PLACES on BF available where you could have made a good profit off a low odds KEEP bet, especially when IBIS hit that last fence HARD!( Chases can be good race types to set LAYS IR etc ).

4 6 yo in that race....and if you backed 2 lowest odds ones ...the winner would be achieved.

SAM T-D was on IBIS.....and TOM BELLAMY on JAMESON for Nigel T-D.....I did consider JAMESON as a possible horse with a good chance, but was put off a bit by initial GOING description being HEAVY ( subsequently changed to SOFT HIP before off) and the fact that Sam T-D on my IBIS guess ( a 7 yo) was not riding for father.

GL today.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2018 4:57 PM GMT
4.50 VENEER OF CHARM....50 AT BF SP....wd
Report DFCIRONMAN March 14, 2018 5:01 PM GMT
33-1 at SP.............
Report kw March 14, 2018 9:01 PM GMT
A cracking winner which should ensure a profitable Cheltenham. Back tomorrow.
Report kw March 15, 2018 9:23 AM GMT
Hi guys. As anyone following this I normally only look at handicaps but for Cheltenham I am posting in other races. It's a pity that there is not more too and fro of ideas. There used to be back in the day. Perhaps there are other forums that are better now. Anyway after yesterday's massive winner I hope these may be of some help.

1.30 --- Kemboy is the only one at the moment as there are quite specific price requirements but if Shattered Love or Benatar prove to be NOT priced between 5/1 and 14/1 they will be selections and obviously if Kemboy falls in that category it becomes a non bet.

2.10 -- The Mighty Don

2.50 -- Max 25/1 -- Balko Des Flos, Cloudy Dream, Douvan or Un De Sceaux look to have this covered

3.30 -- Looks between Bacardys, Sam Spinner or The New One. Maximum odds 14/1 so The New One  may not qualify.

4.10 -- very tough but with likely prices we can cover a few. Last Goodbye, The Storyteller, Old Grangewood, Kings Odyssey, Ballybolley and Viconte Du Noyer are my 6 against the field.

Good luck all and always remember it's about ROI. There is no point in backing 100 even money shots and having 49 winners. That a complete waste of effort. However if you can reduce the number of bets to 95 without losing any winners then you will become a very rich man. In essence that's all I try to do.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 15, 2018 10:55 AM GMT
You are not saying what method you use to arrive at selections......naturally you want to keep this a "secret". Quite rightly.

Probably this is why you are not getting much "feedback".........

Raspberry - has posted that he / she is not blowing raspberries at youDevilGrin....he is enjoying the thread. Probably quite a few reading the thread and enjoying long as you are benefiting from systematically doing the thread, then that is all that matters.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 15, 2018 10:58 AM GMT
According to new forum.......over 4000 VIEWS of your thread........they are watching your thread.Wink
Report DFCIRONMAN March 15, 2018 3:32 PM GMT
Can't believe just how much HYPE re SAM SPINNER!!!!!!

PENHILL interesting
Report DFCIRONMAN March 15, 2018 4:09 PM GMT
GUITAR PETE interesting in 4.10
Report DFCIRONMAN March 15, 2018 4:10 PM GMT
Report DFCIRONMAN March 15, 2018 4:16 PM GMT
FAV wins...wd kw
Report kw March 15, 2018 5:22 PM GMT
Another decent day. 3 good winners. All in all a very profitable Cheltenham so far. Hope some of you were on Back for the last day tomorrow
Report kw March 16, 2018 10:34 AM GMT
Morning all. Lots of possibles today unfortunately. Hopefully a profit despite the numbers of selections.

1.30 -- Apples Shakira, Farclas, Mr Adjudicator. I also include Sayo at a big price

2.10 -- 3, 5, 7, 8, 13, 19, or 22

2.50 -- 1, 4, 10, 11, 18 or 19

3.30 -- 7, 8, 9, 14, or 18

4.10 -- 3, 23, 19, 9 or 17

4.50 -- Sire Du Berlais or Flawless Escape

5.30 -- no selections

So lots of selections but hopefully a few big priced winners to compensate. We shall see.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 16, 2018 1:20 PM GMT
1.30 Farclass/Gumball/Saldier/ and SFC APPLES SHARIRA TO BEAT ONE ON THE E TO LEFT!
Report DFCIRONMAN March 16, 2018 1:37 PM GMT
WD ON 1.30 kw
Report kw March 16, 2018 1:38 PM GMT
Well that was pretty impressive. 1st 4 home.
Report DFCIRONMAN March 16, 2018 1:39 PM GMT
2.10 ...

Report DFCIRONMAN March 16, 2018 1:42 PM GMT
Your 1.30 4 selections would have achieved a TRICAST

Report DFCIRONMAN March 16, 2018 2:16 PM GMT
GL  with other races kw.
Report kw March 16, 2018 3:03 PM GMT
2.50 Boom 33/1
Report kw March 16, 2018 3:07 PM GMT
46.92 @bsp to go with11.5 earlier so a minimum profit on the day of 29 points. What a cracking Cheltenham
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