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kw
24 Dec 17 12:36
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Date Joined: 09 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 344 | Blogger: kw's blog
Well it's a boring xmas eve and touring the net I found out that Adrien Massey has revived his site to allow race profiling for free. I tried messing with this a few years ago with mixed results. I note several firms are following this as systems for sale and am wondering whether to take another look. Suggestions???
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Report kw December 25, 2017 11:48 AM GMT
Well spent a bit of time on AM site and came up with the following for Boxing Day from Fontwell and Market Rasen. Have only looked at Handicap races at Fontwell and Market Rasen. Can't find anything for Hcp Hurdles at Fontwell but the 2.00 looks between Bredon and Bajardo though Little Jim is not out of it. At MR 12.05 Friendship Bay 1.10 Far Loch or Thank you very much 2.15 Saint John Henry or Petite Power 2.50 Arctic Milan or Sergio 3.25 Vivas or Mr Snoozy. I don't know how they will go but if anyone can sort them further then please post. Good luck and a happy and profitable Boxing Day to all.
Report DFCIRONMAN December 25, 2017 1:45 PM GMT
kw.......2.00 Fontwell.....no idea how you arrive at the 3 horses you mention???

Can't be based on "profiling"........I suggest you check out TIMEFORM for that race re PREVIOUS WINNERS for that race. Just go on BF to 2.00 Fontwell , then click on "Form & Results" , then check out 2.00 race.

Suggest your 3 are unlikely to win, based on going likely tomorrow.

GL .........and thanks for mentioning AM site there again!
Report DFCIRONMAN December 25, 2017 9:19 PM GMT
As GOING now described as -


SOFT (Heavy in places) (GoingStick 6.1) (Rail movements: Races 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 & 7 +96yds and +144yds to Race 6) (Light rain)


then may well change from SOFT to HEAVY.

If this does happen.....makes the race more difficult to weigh up. One of your 3 might now have a chance to win....but race now looks too hard for me to "guess" the winner.

    ALBATROS DE GUYE may well have a fair chance if HEAVY, and the odds appear too high if HEAVY.

Your Bajardo may well fight out finish.

BROWN BEAR if SOFT going....

GL with race.
Report kw December 27, 2017 11:57 AM GMT
Well not sure what to make of yesterday. Would have finished up having 11 bets with 2 winners at 7/2  and 12/1 at SP and a return of 17.5. Profit 6.5 a 59% ROI. Have looked today and offer up the following for consideration.
2.05 Wetherby -- Cyrus Darius and possibly Pain au Chocolate if it's 10/1 or less
3.05 Kempton -- Sir Ivan and Hollybush Henry
3.40 Kempton -- Kayf Grace, Eddie Maurice and Montys Award
Report kw December 27, 2017 4:29 PM GMT
OK so a loss today Stakes 7 Return 3.75 Loss 3.25. Running totals Stakes 18 Returns 21.25 Profit 3.25 ROI 18.05.
Will try again tomorrow
Report kw December 28, 2017 10:15 AM GMT
Concentrating on Catterick. Most of the selections come with a price caveat which should reduce number of selections.
I will use all singles returns at SP as I feel this is best. Others could look at Fcasts etc

1.05 --- Betancourt ( Max 10/1 )

1.35 --- Calypso Delegator and Copt Hill ( Both Max 14/1 )

2.40 --- Golden Investment, Cottersrock, Captain Mowbray, Hattons Hill, Attention Please ( All mx 10/1 )

3.15 --- Durbanville, Triopas, Secret Passenger ( all max 14/1 )

Good luck everyone whatever you back.
Report kw December 28, 2017 3:30 PM GMT
OK so Stakes 9 and return of 8 means a loss of 1. Running totals Stakes 27 Returns 29.25 and profit of 2.25. Will try again tomorrow
Report kw December 30, 2017 10:02 AM GMT
Jumping resumes so we go again. As always returne etc are based on ISP as this is the toughest criteria to fulfill. It will undoubtedly be possible to better the returns by using BSP or BOG.
Newbury

1.15 --- Remiluc
1.50 --- Sir Anthony Browne, Huntsman Son, Brave Eagle
2.25 --- Wuff

Haydock

1.35 --- Thomas Patrick
2.10 --- Emperors Choice
2.45 --- Federici, Church Hall

Taunton

1.25 --- Silent Steps, Sidney de Baune
2.00 --- Bandsman
2.35 --- Burrenbridge Hotel, Glimpse of Gold

Good luck today everyone. If you can sort these further then so much the better.
Report kw December 30, 2017 10:27 PM GMT
Stakes today 14 with returns of 11.50 and a loss of 2.50. Running totals Stake 41 Returns - 0.25 at ISP prices. Not disastrous as BSP still showing a few points profit . Will try again tomorrow.
Report kw December 31, 2017 10:18 AM GMT
Today's selections with a few caveats

Uttoxeter

12.20 --- The favourite if Comber Mill or C'est du Cahtea else no bet
1.25 -- The Horsechestnut , Kilcasen
1.55 -- Cave Top if favourite else no bet
2.25 -- No Dice
3,00 -- River Dun if favourite else no bet

Warwick

1.00 --- Shanty Town, Paddy the Oscar
2.05 --- Culture De Sivolo, Flashjack, Definately Vinnie
2.35 --- Dontminddboys, Very Live, Arquebusier

As always at ISP but you can probably beat that in other ways. Comments most welcome
Report DFCIRONMAN December 31, 2017 5:36 PM GMT
Don't understand why a selection HAS TO BE A FAVOURITE kw???

If you have narrowed(filtered) it down to a possible winner.....then you will miss out on winners like COMBER HILL that was at good odds and also had factors in favour ffor that race.The fav in that race did have a chance to win that race, as a number of factors in the horse's favour.....but 1 dodgy jump near end possibly stopped it winning, though COMBER HILL did win fairly well at finish.

I know that certain races are often won by the fav........but the "market" is not infallible, otherwise all favs would winDevilGrin

If you believe a FAVOURITE has a strong chance to win, based on profiling a race, then why not consider your main selection with FAV in a RFC......or your 2 main selections with FAV in combination SFC etc etc.....

GL in New Year.
Report DFCIRONMAN December 31, 2017 5:44 PM GMT
2.05 race...result

Jack Sherwood silk    5. FLASHJACK (IRE) 4/1 jf
2nd    Conor Ring silk    7. DEFINATELY VINNIE 7/1
3rd    Lizzie Kelly silk    1. CULTURE DE SIVOLA (FR) 9/2
All 8 ran.

As those were your 3 selections...then  6 bet combination bet worked there....

You had one of the JT favs in your 3...therefor you don't include the other one...etc etc
Report kw January 1, 2018 10:38 AM GMT
Hi. Felt a bit unlucky with Comber Hill as was Fav when I put it up but that's life. Tricasts was interesting though. Well finished up with a loss  of 4.63 at ISP. Running totals Stakes 53 Loss ( 4.88 ).
Bye the way I do not exclude or include Favs it's just that in that type of race Favs have a good record  at Uttoxeter. Anyway on to the selections today.

Exeter
1.15 --- Billy Hicks
2.25 --- Resolution Bay
3.35 --- Dance Floor King, Major Hindrance, Cap Horner

Catterick

1.00 --- Today Please, Inniscastle Lad, Life Knowledge, Hartside
2.45 --- Ramonex
3.20 --- Panis  Angelicus, Emma Beag

Cheltenham

2.00 --- Viconte Du Noyer, Ballyhill
2.35 --- Buckle Street

Fakenham

1.55 Fixed Rate
2.30 More than Luck

Musselborough

3.25 Smiling Jessica, Robins Legend

Good luck everyone
Report DFCIRONMAN January 1, 2018 11:56 AM GMT
Each race should be appraised on the horses in the race...trainers...GOING etc etc .......Just because a race may have been won by FAVS in the past is IMO irrelevant.

Approximately 1 in 3 races are won by a FAV......but 2 out of 3 are not etc etc etc.

COMBER HILL had stronger factors in its favour for that race than the eventual FAV.....and it was by far a better VALUE bet at odds of 7 SP .

The FAV might have won in that race, as it had been doing CHASE type races, and with the GOING being HEAVY ............at the distance of race and CLASS of race....it could have won...or come close to winning.

EXCLUDING COMBER HILL because it was not FAV is an dubious way to EXCLUDE a horse for selection! There are so many FACTORS that can give a horse a chance to win............the fact it might end up FAV at the off is just 1 FACTOR ....but it is well down the list of other more important factors that are relevant to the race.

You say you are not EXCLUDING or INCLUDING a horse because it is a FAV.......but that really is missing the point, as you EXCLUDED the first named horse, COMBER HILL, just because it was not FAV at the off!

Sorry for going on about this point, however VALUE is more important than a horse being a FAV.........and you are doing really well on listing horses that do have a chance to win, or coming 2nd ( and 3rd.....but generally TRICAST bets are far harder to achieve than a SFC/EXACTA.......perhaps a PLACE bet or LAY IR  or HEDGING bet........depends on your STRATEGY.)

Anyway, GL today and with your profiling.
Report DFCIRONMAN January 1, 2018 3:41 PM GMT
Very good start to year kw...wdGrin
Report kw January 1, 2018 3:53 PM GMT
Well that's better. Today's Stakes 18. Returns 28.75 and a Profit of 10.75.
Running Totals Stakes 71 with a Profit  of 6.12. Does race profiling work. I suppose the answer may be possibly.

Will try again tomorrow.
Report kw January 1, 2018 4:03 PM GMT
Bye the way. Thanks for the advice re price. Will try to remove this from calculations.
Report kw January 2, 2018 10:01 AM GMT
Only the one meeting at Ayr today but a few selections that will hopefully continue in a positive vein.

1.00 --- Nice and Easy, Scip the Scales, Rivabodiva, Lastinmemories
2.10 --- Un Noble
2.40 --- Onlyorsenfoolsies, Elusive Theatre
3.10 --- Las Tunas, Roxyfet, Sky full of Stars
Report kw January 2, 2018 3:25 PM GMT
A very small profit at ISP. Stakes today 10 Profit .25.Running Totals Stakes 81 Profit 6.37
Profit BSP was 1 today so if backing it would seem to be best to go that way. Haven't checked back results at BSP but the profit is probably 3 or 4 points better than SP

Back tomorrow
Report kw January 3, 2018 10:08 AM GMT
Musselborough handicap hurdles are not easy and at the moment I am ignoring them Today's selections are

Ludlow

2.20 --- Tree of Liberty, Little Chunk, Nightfly
2.50 --- Braventara
3.20 --- Hedgeinator, It's a Steal

Musselborough

1.30 --- Boys on tour

Be lucky everyone
Report kw January 3, 2018 3:51 PM GMT
A small profit today. Stakes 7 Return 7.87 Profit .87 @ ISP. Would have been Profit of 2.39 @ BSP.
Running Totals -- Stakes 88 Profit 7.24 @ ISP

Also a couple of forecasts which may be interesting.

With regard to Musselborough Hcp Hdls I had another look at them and would have shown a profit of 5.25 @ ISP so may include selections from here in future.

Bach tomorrow
Report DFCIRONMAN January 3, 2018 4:44 PM GMT
You have had more than 2 SFCS/EXACTAS......if you did 6 bet COMBINATION including FAV with first 2 of your selections kw......Definitely worth checking back re your selections ans results.

Good to see a horse racing strategy thread on hereCool
Report raspberrybottom January 3, 2018 6:24 PM GMT
This is developing into a very nice, interesting thread.

Hope you keep going, kw and good luck.

PS - DFC always offers interesting opinions and advice, and that normally

helps a thread along!Happy
Report kw January 4, 2018 10:19 AM GMT
Thanks for the comments. A pretty quiet day today with only a couple of selections.

Bangor

1.15 ---The Kings Writ
3.20 --- American Life
Report kw January 4, 2018 5:14 PM GMT
A couple of losers so the running Totals are now Stakes 90 Profit 5.24. Only 1 jumps meeting tomorrow as well. Hopefully there will be something at Wetherby.
Report kw January 5, 2018 10:06 AM GMT
Unfortunately jump racing abandoned today so will be back on tomorrow hopefully. Though I might take a look at the all weather. Doubtful of anything there but you never know.
Report ZEALOT January 5, 2018 10:42 PM GMT
try n beat bsp . do it regular . you win
Report kw January 6, 2018 10:31 AM GMT
Well racing returns though there's not much that throws up qualifiers.

Wincanton

1.05 --- D'Arcy Sound, Jaune Et Bleu, Multigifted
3.15 --- Bill and Barn
3.45 --- Monbeg Theatre

Chepstow

1.00 --- Scotchtown, Another Venture, Socksy

So just the 8 selections. As an aside there were a couple that I put up to keep on the right side but will not be backing. May be useful on running. They just failed to make it as selections and I am not allowing ' wiggle ' room to keep the main selections clean.

Wincanton 1.40 - Gowell, 3.45 - Tajbalandabad, Ballyheague Bay

Good luck everyone
Report kw January 6, 2018 3:58 PM GMT
No good today with a loss of 5.37. The running totals are now Stakes 98 Profit - .13
Still up with BSP but disappointing. Hopefully with improve tomorrow.
Report kw January 7, 2018 10:19 AM GMT
Another uninspiring day today. It's been a poor week but we continue to prove the premise one way or another. All of the calculations I am using have produced a profit every year over the last 5 years at every track although losing runs can obviously be expected.
Today's options are.

Plumpton

2.05 --- Project Mars, Heluvagood
3.10 --- Ramore Will, Sir Hubert

Good luck to all.
Report kw January 7, 2018 5:42 PM GMT
Poor day again. Running totals Stakes -- 102 Profit -- ( - 4.13 )
Try again tomorrow
Report kw January 8, 2018 9:58 AM GMT
The weather takes its toll again leaving just Fontwell my local track. I can't find any way to make a decent profit from Hcp hurdles races here ( suggestions please ) but Hcp chases can provide a good return though only 2.15 provides any qualifiers.

2.15 -- Grayed A or Finish the Story should win this.
I shall only be backing Finish The Story and will only include this selection in Totals as short priced Favs in chases will not provide a profit so there is little point in playing them. Some will say that I should use the Fav as a saver and that may well be so but to keep the file clean it is not a selection.

Could do with a thaw. Good Luck everyone
Report DFCIRONMAN January 8, 2018 11:01 AM GMT
With GOING in between for 2.15 race( SOFT HEAVY IN PLACES), then this makes it difficult race to weigh up, especially for distance and few runners.

If it was HEAVY the fav appears likely to win....but is not  definite HEAVY going.

If near SOFT going, then I suspect the 9 year old horses might be the value bets in race....IF going was SOFT!

AS going is not clear.....probably would not put too much on race.

FAV carrying top weight to be 1st with 2 and 3 being 2nd in 2 SFCS/EXACTAS might be worth wee dabble.

As doubt on going...perhaps the fav may not place....so COMBINATION EXACTA bet with 2,3 and 5 is worth a wee dabble cover bet????


GL with race.
Report kw January 9, 2018 11:00 AM GMT
Well called re the Fav ironman.
Currently running Stakes -- 103. Loss ( - 5.13 )

More interesting today with selections as follows

Taunton

12.35 -- Overawed, Chilli Romance, Boutan
2.10 -- Relentless Dreamer, Sandy Beach, Timeforwest
2.45 -- Fidux, Here's Herbie

Doncaster

3.10 -- General Mahler, Doktor Glaz

Hopefully a few winners to get me back on track

Good luck
Report kw January 10, 2018 11:12 AM GMT
Ok. So things are not going well but to be fair I have to continue for a few weeks more before killing this off. Running Totals now Stakes --- 116.  Profit/ loss ( 16.13 )

Today's selections

Ludlow

1.55 --- Wandrin Star, Megabucks

3.35 --- Marvelous Monty, Fille Des Champs

Hopefully a winner or two to get back on track.
Report kw January 11, 2018 10:47 AM GMT
A couple hit the bar yesterday but as they say no cigar.
Running Totals --- Stakes. 120  Profit/ loss -- ( - 20.13 ). Anyway I go on

Leicester

12.45 -- Diamond Rock
2.50 -- Fields of Glory, Chasma
3.25 -- Du Soleil

Catterick

2.35 -- I Just Know, Golden Investment
3.10 -- Minstrel Royal, Astaroland
3.45 -- Calypso Delegator

Good luck all.
Report kw January 12, 2018 10:59 AM GMT
Feeling quite underwhelmed by results as I was expecting better. At least a winner yesterday.
Running totals-- Stakes 129. Profit / Loss ( - 24.13 ). Does race profiling work. Not on this showing. Anyway I continue to totally prove the argument.

Huntingdon

1.30! -- Shining Romeo, Just so Cool, Le Capricieux

Sedgefield

2.10 -- Castletown, Bentons Lad
3.10 -- Hedgeinator

Good luck
Report kw January 12, 2018 4:16 PM GMT
Nearly a really good day. A profit at SP of  6.25
Running Totals -- Stakes 135 Profit/ Loss ( - 17.88 )

Back tomorrow
Report raspberrybottom January 12, 2018 5:36 PM GMT
Well done, kw.

Keep it up! Happy
Report kw January 13, 2018 11:57 AM GMT
Quite a few options today so we shall see.

Warwick

12.40 -- All Is Good, Equus Millar, Shroughmore Lass
1.15 -- Azzuri, Big Jim, Vivaccio
2.25 --- The Organist
3.35 -- Sir Mangan

Kempton

1.30 -- Bishops Court, Mercian Prince, The Tailgater, Rothman
2.40 -- River Frost
3.15 -- Fountains, The Young Master, on Tour, Ballykan
3.45 -- Charming Zen

Wetherby

2.15 -- Just Cameron
2.50 -- Zaidiyn, Craggaknock
3.25 -- Special Wells

So 22 selections today. A big risk but we shall see
Report kw January 13, 2018 5:22 PM GMT
Well that was truly disastrous.
Stakes 157 Loss 32.63

Will take a real turnaround to convince me that this can work.
Report kw January 13, 2018 10:35 PM GMT
Have to go out tomorrow but there are no selections at Kelso
Report DFCIRONMAN January 14, 2018 9:29 AM GMT
Just feel that you need to reduce number of selections on some races.

For example.....3.15 Kempton yesterday.

       You have 4 horses mentioned in an 6 runner race!

Perhaps if you use the SP odds to help you reduce your selections this might be a big plus for you?

FOUNTAINS WINDFALL ...1ST AT 10-11 FAV - The market is indicating this has the strongest chance to win this race.

The SP odds for other 3 horses mentioned were :-

THE YOUNG MASTER 8-1 SP
ON TOUR......... 9-1 SP
BALLYKAN.........5-1 SP

Clearly BALLYKAN being the lowest odds one of the 3 was possibly a good selection for say backing to win....or being 2nd to fav.

Not checked all your other races above, but pretty sure using SP ODDS as a guide to filtering down number horses mentioned in some races would be a reasonable way to go forward .

You could have had a number of SFCS since you started thread..........so don't get too discourage, as you often are attracted to horses that finish in top 2 places....

GL with selections.
Report kw January 15, 2018 11:20 AM GMT
Thanks for advice. Last week was poor but I've made up my mind to continue to try to prove the argument one way or the other. Some signs have been encouraging but as Ironman said earlier excluding on price can be dangerous. All the research says over every year since 2012 an ROI of around 200% is possible. At the moment that seems some way off but perhaps this week will bring an improvement.

Ayr

1.45 -- Raised on Grazeon, Presenting Rose, Berkshire Downs, Miss Tiggy, Northern Girl ( was not sure whether to include because of number of selections but decided that as they all qualify then they should. If one wins at 10's then it's justified )
2.15 -- Aengus, Transient Bat, Trongate
2.50 -- Strong Economy, Hills Of Dubai, Buffalo Ballet
3.25 -- Sky Full Of Stars, McGintys Dream

Plumpton

2.00 -- Brother Bennett, Norphin
2.30 -- Clondaw Bisto, Sandhurst Lad, Miss ****
3.05 -- Frank N Fair
4.10 -- Astrum, Austin Friars

For info I live in the South of England and it has been raining heavily For the last 3/4 hours. And has just stopped. Plumpton therefore is likely to be particularly heavy and testing..
Report kw January 16, 2018 10:54 AM GMT
Well another poor day. This is becoming monotonous. Had a couple of long priced selections yesterday that traded well odds on in running but didn't get home. Frustrating.
Current state of play Stakes 170 Profit / Loss ( - 41.43 )
No Ayr today so Hereford it is

2.00 -- The Kings writ, Is love alive, Heavenly Promise, Clondaw Rigg
2.30 -- Steel Express, Colt Lightning
3.05 -- Away For Slates, Gassin Golf
3.40 -- Everyday Everyhour, Ckalco Des Loges

Good luck everyone
Report kw January 16, 2018 5:43 PM GMT
That's a bit better with a couple of decent winners. Running Totals now

Stakes 180 Profit / Loss ( - 34.93 )

Back tomorrow
Report kw January 17, 2018 11:17 AM GMT
After an improved performance yesterday I hope that the success can continue today

Market Rasen

1.00 -- its Obvious, Roberts Star, itsnonoforbusiness
3.10 -- Kincora Fort
3.45 -- Moorstown

Newbury

1.20 -- Doitforthevillage, Ambre Des Marais, Lex Talionis, Duhallow Lad
3.00 -- Two Smokin Barrels, Indy Five, Horatio Hornblower

So 12 selections. Good luck all.
Report raspberrybottom January 17, 2018 5:57 PM GMT
Well done! Happy
Report kw January 17, 2018 8:48 PM GMT
Now that's more like it. A non runner and two good winners. Even better at BSP. Anyway position now stands at
Stakes --- 191
Profit/Loss --- ( - 20.93 ) Prices all at ISP

Probably perhaps even back in profit at BSP

Back tomorrow
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