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TheFear
06 Oct 17 20:17
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Date Joined: 09 May 14
| Topic/replies: 8,455 | Blogger: TheFear's blog
THEY are about to takeover. Will any ex-Betfair staff be setting up businesses tennis stylee?

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/oct/06/bookmaker-launch-mobile-app-betting-live-horse-races
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Report aye robot October 9, 2017 7:02 PM BST
Betfair is also in discussion to buy this data from the provider. Here's hoping.
Report aye robot October 9, 2017 7:03 PM BST
Betfair is in discussion to buy this data in too. Here's hoping.
Report TheFear October 10, 2017 4:09 PM BST
You think you could work off this info, aye robot? It wouldn't surprise me if BF did a Sportsbook deal only.
Report aye robot October 10, 2017 11:30 PM BST
I'd certainly love to have a go. It's a really interesting and difficult problem and I enjoy working that stuff out. If someone can really nail a model they'll make a killing.

Apparently the provider is only covering about 100 meetings a year though so the opportunity is a bit limited for the time being.

I assume bookies won't make the actual data stream available, they'll just use it as the basis for an in-running pricing model. If they do put the data out there there will be a way to bring it in - I'll have an army of Indian programmers on that the moment it launches.

From what I'm told Betfair are considering it for the exchange although apparently it's pretty expensive.
Report TheFear October 11, 2017 1:48 PM BST
Appreciate the reply thanks.
Report wondersobright October 11, 2017 2:49 PM BST
be interesting to see how this works in practice as GPS cant tell you about horses pulling, making mistakes at obstacles etc
Report aye robot October 11, 2017 3:39 PM BST
There will be limits to what the data can tell you - but at the moment I have to operate with no information at all about what the horses are doing - all I can do is make inferences from the market activity. Adding in a layer of information about the physical situation in the race could add enormously to my understanding of the market.

The problem of pricing the race based on the position/speed etc of the runners is monstrously complex. It'll be insanely difficult to price on that basis alone at a sufficient level of accuracy without really big margins. The bookies can just impose a big over-round and absorb the error that way but exchange players have to work on a much tighter spread so I think the big prizes will go to whoever can stitch together a sound exchange activity based model with a rough GPS based one. Honestly - I'm itching to get at that.
Report breadnbutter October 13, 2017 8:17 PM BST
GPS was not designed for this sort of application and really is insignificant in this sort of use ,tech has moved and the real advance is the ability to process multi inputs via an android type platform and transmit real time via a LAN ,in this use it's the relative position of each horse to each other rather than to fixed coordinates ,another system could overlay them onto a  course map .Hawkeye does not use gps it uses it's own cameras and has real time ability beyond the comprehension of the human eye/brain .An enclosed positioning system could be used and very accurate coordinates chartered onto a 3d map without gps .But I don't think people are understanding what all the inputs and all the trial data will produce ,it will end in running ,it's over ,bookmakers will be offering 100 about a 100000 shot and 5/4 about a 3/1 ,the raw data will also retire everyone who has spent a lifetime race watching  ,tbh the refusal of UK racing to embrace tech years ago ,sectionals ect has produced a situ where there is not a new generation of punters waiting to embrace new data and tech , anyone who thinks they could take on this tech is deluded ,it will be like turning up at the 0k corral with a pair of boxing gloves . The raw data will effect the SP market and the ante post 3yo markets , be a good tool for the breeders but for most it will be used against them to make the game something far removed from what it is now .Racing is still in the 18th century ,furlongs ,miles and stones and pounds ,sectionals and even horse weight have been denied to punters and now they are going straight to space age tech Laugh
Report PeteTheBloke October 14, 2017 10:54 AM BST
@breadnbutter Anyone betting i/r with a bookie deserves to be parted from his money. Only exchanges make any attempt
at levelling the playing field.
Report siwaadupa October 15, 2017 7:47 AM BST
They going to automate horse racing even more now. Longer time delay in order to manage bets would be required to protect the punters, but we all know its not going to happen.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 15, 2017 8:41 PM BST
Don't talk rubbish. The last thing any regular in-running player wants is an increased bet delay as that would totally kill the the game. In fact, the 1 second bet delay we currently have should be totally removed so that we can be entirely sure it is a totally level playing field and that the Betfair bot is not taking advantage.
Report siwaadupa October 16, 2017 6:24 PM BST
"Don't talk rubbish. The last thing any regular in-running player wants is an increased bet delay as that would totally kill the the game. In fact, the 1 second bet delay we currently have should be totally removed so that we can be entirely sure it is a totally level playing field and that the Betfair bot is not taking advantage."

Yeah, absolutely love it when my money are being hoovered by courtsiders either on Tennis, Nba, Football or Horse racing. Whats the point keeping bet in play if you cant manage it? I had literally milion(honestly) of pound as a turnover on Tennis which gone to almost nil. Why?
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 16, 2017 8:29 PM BST
Increase the bet delay and there won't be any backers left to hoover up your lays. The market would die overnight. I would like to see track and fast pic players have a 5 second delay imposed on their accounts to stop them hoovering and encourage new players to get involved without the fear of being hoovered, but an increased delay for everyone would totally kill the in-running market.
Report TheFear October 18, 2017 8:23 PM BST
How could you possibly know who had fast pics? That would be extremely arbitrary. Some accounts have fast pics today and not tomorrow.

I wonder how the GPS would deal with hard pullers? Also will all the cheeting trainers out there like everyone to know that they ran at average 35mph for 6 runs and then at 40mph when gambled?
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 19, 2017 4:57 PM BST
It would obviously be arbitrary in the same way bookmakers restrict accounts, but don't worry yourself as I very much doubt it will happen.
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