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siwaadupa
03 May 16 16:05
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Feb 12
| Topic/replies: 710 | Blogger: siwaadupa's blog
So the time has come for me.
2008 I was saying" B is the best thing in wolrd, I will always have something to do(work)
Middle 2008 - X matching - I hate it, it privileges fastest stream person who is happy to pay high charges or its betfair themselves
Late 2008 - 20% PC - I could have lived with that - still had plenty to do
I believe 2011, PC2 - shock, completely changed my mind - I started to become worry of the future.
Then sportsbook appeared - significantly less customers, particularly on sports like basket, volleyball.
Tennis bots + basket bots+ football bots are taking significant part of my previous activity - destroying me in some way.
I dont want to moan that its not possible etc. - In my case its not worth it- when you add all figures, hours spent in front of PC you will figure out that elsewhere I will have more for less. I want to add that Im not a mug:
80,337
Exchange points
=
52%
Commission Discount
So Im preety active. It wont be anymore from tomorrow.
Im not quiting, but as a full timer its over for me.
Its another boring exit for 12 pound per hour elsewhere.
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Report Ghetto Joe May 3, 2016 4:24 PM BST
Yep I think PC2 has driven loads away, margins getting smaller and penalised at least 42% of your winnings. All those early players who promoted and extolled the virtues of the exchange now paying 9 times more than any newcomers who do exactly the same thing just because they've been long standing customers who probably won  around £17K for each of those 15 years the exchange has been up.
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH May 3, 2016 10:18 PM BST

May 3, 2016 -- 10:24AM, Ghetto Joe wrote:


Yep I think PC2 has driven loads away, margins getting smaller and penalised at least 42% of your winnings. All those early players who promoted and extolled the virtues of the exchange now paying 9 times more than any newcomers who do exactly the same thing just because they've been long standing customers who probably won

Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH May 3, 2016 10:19 PM BST
blocked comment Grin
Report pmbets May 4, 2016 10:29 AM BST
Betfair share price in freefall today.
Report Westender May 4, 2016 11:07 AM BST
I stated 2 years ago that 99% of people on here no longer earn the MIMINUM WAGE PER HOUR SPENT ON BETFAIR and would be better spending their time and money on activites that bring enjoyment to their lives.

Another innovation will appear but until it comes, the 2 bookmakers are turning the Exchanges into floating dead ducks.
Report TheFear May 4, 2016 12:04 PM BST
If you love sport and gambling what activity are you going to find that replaces Betfair? My hope for the future is that PC goes up for the real bad customers and goes down for the good, but winning customers, who are a positive for Betfair. Why they haven't figured out that some winning customers aren't the devil incarnate im not sure.
Report Ghetto Joe May 4, 2016 12:41 PM BST
Never understood the mentality of people wanting more charges, we're all using the same exchange, if some are gaining unfair advantages you should close those loopholes down not increase charges to cash in on them too.
Report Templeton Peck May 4, 2016 8:56 PM BST
I'll be taking an extended break from 11th July for the same reasons as the op.  It's not that I can't make a decent living here - I've somehow managed to have my most profitable first four months of the year yet - but all the attacks from PC2 to XMXM to Sportsbook to withdrawing from countries w/o a fight have taken their toll.  It's just too hard scrabbling around to find markets with decent liquidity that haven't been botted to minimal margins.  I know there will be plenty of markets die when I leave but I think Betfair are content with the exchange just being for the biggest markets and events.
Report wolf3011 May 4, 2016 11:02 PM BST
Out of curiosity OP, are you trading time decay markets to make money in football? I've always assumed that the odds on an event increase/ decrease with automated software in proportion to the realistic odds of it occurring so struggle to comprehend how anyone can find an edge in markets but clearly some of you do. I'm on the lower premium charge mainly through high stake gambles in my early days here but like most of you know, this pattern is unsustainable long term
Report CLYDEBANK29 May 5, 2016 11:04 PM BST
There comes a point when you've been gambling full time for so long that you feel disconnected from the work place.  I'm too close to winning a million to quit now.  Maybe when/if I do I'll quit.  If it was a marathon I'd be on the final mile, but my legs have been treading water in the last 5 miles and my body has wanted to quit.  If I hadn't been saddled with 40% overweight I'd be in the bar with my feet up.
Report wolf3011 May 6, 2016 12:11 AM BST
I doubt there is anyone who makes money just gambling long term on this entire site
Report CLYDEBANK29 May 6, 2016 8:14 AM BST
wolf, if there weren't people making money on here, there wouldn't be an exchange product.  There is, so there still are.  The likes of Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham have made tens of millions gambling, plenty of which will have been on here.
Report YOMOMMA May 6, 2016 10:14 AM BST
There are 2 who sometimes use the football forum who win big money. Think they are called mega88 and betfairbuddy. mega88 tipped up Liverpool to qualify against Dortmund when Dortmund were 1.01!

Before anyone says they are lying, betfairbuddy regularly posts screen shots of his pinnacle account bets.
Report wolf3011 May 6, 2016 2:01 PM BST

May 6, 2016 -- 2:14AM, CLYDEBANK29 wrote:


wolf, if there weren't people making money on here, there wouldn't be an exchange product.

Report wolf3011 May 6, 2016 2:02 PM BST
Most profit by trading, problem with gambling is you can be up by thousands one year and down the next so the only way to say if its been profitable is when you retire for good
Report wolf3011 May 6, 2016 2:03 PM BST

May 6, 2016 -- 4:14AM, YOMOMMA wrote:


There are 2 who sometimes use the football forum who win big money. Think they are called mega88 and betfairbuddy. mega88 tipped up Liverpool to qualify against Dortmund when Dortmund were 1.01! Before anyone says they are lying, betfairbuddy regularly posts screen shots of his pinnacle account bets.


This mega character was backing Bayern to beat Atletico, then laying Atletico then saying he was going all in on Bayern at 1.05 as " recovery".

Report CLYDEBANK29 May 6, 2016 4:27 PM BST
The people who make the most money generally straight bet rather than trade, and generally don't do it on here.  I certainly don't restrict myself to gambling solely on here.  Most people do a combination of both and always have.  I tend to bet and trade more conservatively on here and bet elsewhere because the weekly sequential nature of the premium charge penalises variance in profit and loss.
Report wolf3011 May 6, 2016 4:57 PM BST

May 6, 2016 -- 10:27AM, CLYDEBANK29 wrote:


The people who make the most money generally straight bet rather than trade, and generally don't do it on here.

Report wolf3011 May 6, 2016 4:59 PM BST
Posts aren't showing with a quote so my question was do you lay bet match odds and trade if you don't like what you're seeing? I'm on the premium charge myself which hits or did hit 24% some weeks with "implied commission" etc etc
Report CLYDEBANK29 May 6, 2016 7:52 PM BST
I bet or trade when it's something I think I know a lot about and I think the price is wrong or when it's something I know a reasonable amount about and the market implies it is a good price.  Whether I bet or trade depends on perceived value, liquidity, where I think the market might move, where the market does move, mood at the time and impact on premium charges.  Sometimes, but not often, I trade blind.  I never bet blind although I might end up with a blind bet where I haven't traded out a blind trade in time.
Report CLYDEBANK29 May 6, 2016 8:04 PM BST
I don't try and compete with big betting syndicates.  I avoid obvious derivative based markets because I'm not automated.  I specialise in markets that I enjoy and either aren't or can't be automated because the mathematics aren't at all quantifiable.  As a general rule I'll trade team sports and bet on non team sports.  If I bet in running, I'll avoid markets where a time delay is a significant advantage (which isn't many)
Report CLYDEBANK29 May 6, 2016 8:07 PM BST
* significant disadvantage obviously
Report wolf3011 May 6, 2016 9:10 PM BST
Cheers for the response which looks a logical philosophy of approaching life on the exchange using a rational thought process. I've never understood people betting or should I say trading on something like the under 2.5 goals saying" I will back unders and if no goal after 10 minutes lay it"... surely as you infer such automated markets are responding to actual proportional chances of an event occurring with software so if the odds are accurate where is the edge as there can't be one. Regarding markets that aren't automated so have no edge for the exchange in mathematical probability, I can't think of many markets in football which aren't using software to change odds with time decay etc so I'm assuming you trade other sports for this?
Report fixed May 7, 2016 2:12 AM BST
every bet is a trade and every trade is a bet, so you better stop this now as a lot of eyes are burning already
Report wolf3011 May 7, 2016 2:47 AM BST
Every bet isn't a trade clearly is it?
Report CLYDEBANK29 May 7, 2016 10:06 AM BST
Every trade might be a bet and every bet might be a trade  (but that's about individual perception) and the general perception is there is a distinction.  Therefore may I advise a bottle of Optrex and a 20 minute yoga session
Report wolf3011 May 7, 2016 11:44 AM BST
No need for that comment at all.. the number of smart arses on here when over 95% are chasing losses beggars belief. Maybe you should use the eyedrops yourself if you have a "banker" this afternoon in a sport of random chance
Report CLYDEBANK29 May 7, 2016 11:46 AM BST
that wasn't aimed at you wolf and it was a jokePlain
Report fixed May 7, 2016 5:40 PM BST
perceptions might be different, but that doesn't change the facts. 'bet' vs 'trade' talk same flawed nonsense as is 'growth' vs 'value' debate by some so called professional stock analysts
Report Ghetto Joe May 7, 2016 6:34 PM BST
If you're paying PC charges it rarely makes sense to have open bets on here anymore.
Report wolf3011 May 7, 2016 8:50 PM BST
Lord knows how anyone finds an edge but if there is one, I'm certain it doesn't come from a football perspective in analysing something which has so many variables. I can only assume most of the tiny percentage do so using superior technical prowess with bots rather than any indepth knowledge of the game.. look at west ham vs Swansea today , no one short of mystic meg could possibly envisage that and these kind of results happen every week in every league.
Report wolf3011 May 9, 2016 11:10 AM BST

May 6, 2016 -- 8:12PM, fixed wrote:


every bet is a trade and every trade is a bet, so you better stop this now as a lot of eyes are burning already


and your email of complaint burning by the look of it.. no edge you may have would last for ever anyway. I'm already on it Excited

Report fixed May 9, 2016 4:35 PM BST
lots of people being on it IS the edge...and it is everlasting
Report wolf3011 May 9, 2016 5:18 PM BST
Got those bots going as we speak then fixed ?
Report siwaadupa September 17, 2017 3:41 AM BST
I thought, that I would give you an little update(why the forum is so quiet?). Im on 28k per year right now(not a hard job, less stress). Life changed(stabilised). I wouldnt come back right now to Betfair. Still thinkig of doing this, but for corporation, but would need to start from the bottom(poor money- 22k per year)which discourages me. I dot know how many of full time traders left- on low expenses is still possible. Looks like my full time career has ended for good(I dont believe that new Ceo can change something). I regret that traders cant work together to create platform that allows to WIN again. Goverment also doing nothing except just taking money from licences and income taxes. All good for you guys!
Report PeteTheBloke October 4, 2017 7:31 PM BST
Hardly anyone understands - governments, regulators or even BF themselves. I haven't had a chat/email conversation with
anyone in BF who understands a single thing about exchange betting, or betting in general, for a few years now.

I've spoken to advertising authorities about bookies' ads and they don't have a clue. I've spoken to data protection
authorities about my data being stolen from a bookie - and proved it - and they don't care.

The whole thing is too complicated for the average idiot to understand. Look at Amber Rudd with encryption.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/10/03/amber_rudd_still_does_not_understand_encryption/
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