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GUSCHER
21 Jun 13 21:40
Joined:
Date Joined: 02 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 139 | Blogger: GUSCHER's blog
Hi,
I am in my 10th month of consecutive profit at the moment! I have been using betfair and various bots for a few years now, & am a real lay bet addict! I have never been in profit for 10 consecutive months before now.  I would like to reiterate and confirm what many of you have been saying in your posts and that is greed! it will be your downfall! I have employed many systems, purchased and my own which have all failed well before now and it's all to do with greed.
I now laybet with recovery BUT & it's a crucial BUT! I have a stake to bank ratio of many thousand to one and a profit stop of 0.3% of bank/day. With recovery even these levels may be far too high (one day last month my recovery went to hundreds  times stake! but still recovered..just!)  The point I'm making is that 0.3 % most days is an incredible return. Most people talk about 2,3,4 or even 5% profit/day, that is far too  risky & unsustainable unless you really know your courses & horses, which I do not. So where on earth could I possibly put my money to get 0.3% compound nearly every day? & although I am only making single digit  quids every day it soon mounts up and it's tax free! At the end of each month I work out how many hours overtime I would have to work in order to take home the same amount and it works out at a fair few! So what better way of earning a few extra quid! So come on  please don't waste all your hard earned cash trying to make loads of dosh overnight, treat your exchange account as a savings or investment tool, keep your bank/stake ratio as low as you can and employ a very gentle recovery mode & just see how steady your bank grows but even with this you have to expect a bit of a bumpy ride along the way.

   One little question I have for those with more experience than me is, how long does a good system have to stay in profit before it can truly be called a successful system?! 

I have been through a 10 cycle recovery twice before totalling over £1000 & had I lost cycle 10 it could have cost me another £1000 which is a huge amount to lose to recover a 75p bet!! So that £1000 liability along with the previous loss could have lost me over 50% of bank! then what would you do? carry on and lose 100% bank!! I don't know I will have to wait and see the next time! but I have never employed a strategy before that has given me  10 months continuous profit & I have tried many in the last 6 or 7 years! Your recovery  must fit well inside your avg S.R  which is 85% for me at the moment. Of course the greed thing is all so important!  use the 10000/1 stake with a daily bail out of 0.3% which may not sound a lot but 10%/month compound is not to be frowned on! This really isn't a system for the faint hearted but it just goes to show why most laying systems with recovery are doomed to fail when unrealistic returns of 2,3,4 %/day are quoted!!  please keep all your expectations real!
Gus
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Report sheppy123 June 21, 2013 10:06 PM BST
Hi Gus, good post!

I think it's OK to win a small amount at a time as long as one losing bet doesn't cancel it all out.

You could back 1.01's all day long and win every one for weeks/months. But then Serena gets beat and you're goosed!!!

To me, unless you're an expert, laying @ big odds is an accident waiting to happen!

Phew! I wish I could be up for one month, nevermind ten so I guess you must be doing something right!

All the best...
Report JLivermore June 22, 2013 9:32 AM BST
You lost a grand trying to recover a 75p bet that day?What kind of savings account does that?
Report freddiewilliams June 22, 2013 9:40 AM BST
another martingaler
Report GUSCHER June 22, 2013 9:41 AM BST
Very good point J but on the other hand I wouldn't have had the grand profit in the first place without this strategy!
Report sheppy123 June 22, 2013 9:56 AM BST
I think there's a big difference between being profitable for several months, and several years.

I've learnt a lot by going through horse racing systems. You can be up for several months, and then get completely wiped out which cancels out all that hard work.

It sounds like you've been lucky so far?

I wish you all the best and mean really well! I just don't want you to get stung!
Report GUSCHER June 22, 2013 10:02 AM BST
Thanks Shep, I'm kind of expecting it while holding back on increasing bets/bank ratio so that I can ride through the odd 11/12 recovery cycles.
Report sheppy123 June 22, 2013 11:27 AM BST
You're welcome Gus! I am completely obsessed with the idea of trying to find an edge. I've spent many hours creating databases of previous results and stats etc. I'm not desperate for money, it just feels good to win!!!

I've come to the conclusion that there isn't a simple method, it's got to be unique in some way???
Report cyprusal June 22, 2013 11:59 AM BST
gus,the fact that you were risking a grand to recover 75p within 10 months of starting your system is showing you its doomed to failure,lets say on average,your going to be in the same position 3 times in the next 2 years you will have to be pretty good at dodging bullets not to be on the wrong side at least once,also,you have to start at such small stakes that I cant see that your system will be making enough money to make all the sweating worthwhile although like you ive spent countless hours trying simmiler systems and the amount of money won doesn't really come into it,i came to the conclusion many years ago that level stakes punting is the only way to go and if your any good your bank will grow a lot quicker than you think,good luck anyway.
Report GUSCHER June 22, 2013 12:09 PM BST
Thanks Cyprusal,
                   all comments and advice appreciated!
Gus
Report I.quit.my.country June 23, 2013 5:50 AM BST
wise words from cyprus. I stopped reading when I read the word 'recovery'.
Report GUSCHER June 23, 2013 7:58 PM BST
Thanks for all your comments guy's, I take it that very few of you believe you can laybet with recovery and make any long term profit, I am happy to bow to your superior knowledge! but as I know very little about racing I am trying to use statistics and recovery to make a few extra quid long term. As I said at the start of this thread It has paid off so far. If no one thinks it has got any long term potential then I can change it if someone could help me come up with an alternative based on my stat's so far:

Starting bank Aug 12 £2400
profit upto today     £1881
total lay bets        6589
bets won              5674
bets lost              915
total odds of losses   6447

So looking at this if I were laying just at level stakes I would have won 5674 points but lost 6447 points so would have lost 773 points overall. So if we turn that round assuming the avg. back odds are roughly the same as the avg lay odds I.e 7.04 if I were backing my choices at level stakes I would have lost 5674 points but gained 915 @ 7.04 = 6441 points 6441-5674 = 767 points profit. So for my setup all you level stakers would suggest I back at level stakes rather than lay? Have I got this right or all wrong bearing in mind my maths aint too good!!!!?? any help/advice always very much appreciated!!

Regards,
Gus
Report I.quit.my.country June 24, 2013 10:40 AM BST
so you've turned a losing strategy into a winner using chase bets. How long will you last?
Report sheppy123 June 24, 2013 11:12 AM BST
Hi Gus!

To me, the word "recovery" scares the crap out of me! It's got disaster written all over it! Things could get very psychological!

There are some golden rules of gambling and one of them is "don't chase your losses".

I've read so many times from pro's that what your aiming for is to not care too much whether you win a bet or lose it cos you know that your system works.

Now, here's the punchline...

I am useless at winning money! I'm a loser! So for this reason, I'm doing a lot of studying, trying out different systems on paper etc. I'm fed up with losing money!!!

You are doing far better than I've ever done, BUT either you know more than you're letting on, or you've just been lucky so far???

Good luck anyway!
Report ZEALOT June 24, 2013 4:56 PM BST
Look for anything between 3-10% profit on turnover , after 300 ish bets .

so after 300 bets risking a ton on each one ---- 1800 would be a nice profit = 6%
Report kenilworth June 24, 2013 4:57 PM BST
Some people would consider 3% a bit ambitious.
Report GUSCHER June 24, 2013 4:59 PM BST
Hi Shep,
         Thanks for your reply I may well have been lucky not to hit 12,13 or 14 recovery cycles which may have well wiped me out but it hasn't happened yet, The emotional side is removed as I use a bot, I couldn't bear to watch £100's fall through my palms!! So I have to use a bot or it would scare the crap out of me too!! Also I think the rules in my original post are very important i.e fitting the recovery bets within my 84.2% S.R If your interested, all I can say is I'm happy to keep you informed and will tell you when it all goes tits up! But am also happy to abandon this in return for some other strategy which is based on stats and sound logic as I promise you I can't use my horse racing knowledge as I have absolutely zero of that!!
Regards
Gus
Report GUSCHER June 24, 2013 5:01 PM BST
I stick with my original and am happy with 0.3% of bank per day
Gus
Report kenilworth June 24, 2013 5:06 PM BST
Gus, how much are you prepared to lose on a bad day, chasing 3%?
Report JLivermore June 24, 2013 5:18 PM BST
The best way to make money out of this strategy would be to run a book on how many days before you blow up.
Report GUSCHER June 24, 2013 5:18 PM BST
Hi K,
     well stupidly I set the bot up to stop at a loss of all my profit since the August start date of £1881 at moment or +0.3% for the day and I must admit has come close but the way I see it it's only profit I never had, but I was lucky not to get hit badly at the start when it was all my own cash!!
Report GUSCHER June 24, 2013 5:20 PM BST
good bet J, maybe I could offset that happening with a side bet to recover my losses!!
Report JLivermore June 24, 2013 5:21 PM BST
now you're talking!
Report kenilworth June 24, 2013 8:03 PM BST
Gus, you say, 'it's only profit I never had', that is incorrect,
as soon as you have the money it's yours, nobody else's. I used to
hear that a lot, 'I'm playing with the bookie's money etc, etc).
It's not, it's YOUR money.
Report GUSCHER June 24, 2013 8:18 PM BST
Yes you are right Ken of course, the point I was really making was that without risking that kind of money I wouldn't of won!! But that's betting!  if that makes sense!
Report kenilworth June 24, 2013 8:25 PM BST
It does make sense, and I get your point.
Report GUSCHER June 25, 2013 8:00 PM BST
End of 10th consecutive month in profit, just starting my 11th! see what happens this month, can I make it a whole year?! Will let you know in 2 months time if anyone's actually interested!!
Report sheppy123 June 25, 2013 10:38 PM BST
Good on you Gus! I hope you can carry on! Please keep us updated on your progress.

I'm not a big fan of your methods BUT really, what ever method people use is still gambling. There's no certainties!

What seems lucky is the fact you've made money, so if your system goes pear-shaped which does seem inevitable, you won't have lost everything.

Good luck!
Report GUSCHER June 25, 2013 10:42 PM BST
Thanks for that Shep! Good luck to you and everyone!
Report Darlo Bantam June 25, 2013 10:49 PM BST

Jun 24, 2013 -- 8:18PM, GUSCHER wrote:


Yes you are right Ken of course, the point I was really making was that without risking that kind of money I wouldn't of won!! But that's betting!

Report Darlo Bantam June 25, 2013 10:50 PM BST
GUSCHER • June 24, 2013 8:18 PM BST
Yes you are right Ken of course, the point I was really making was that without risking that kind of money I wouldn't of won!! But that's betting!  if that makes sense!


That is correct, as long as you recognise that profits cannot be judged in isolation and must be judged over a long-term strategy. But do you draw a new line when you're in profit and start again?
Report Ell June 26, 2013 12:27 AM BST
You're fortunate to be winning as your lays were showing a level loss.

Back your selections to 0.5% - 1.0% of your bank.
If nothing else you won't lose the lot in one day.

You know it makes sense.
Report GUSCHER June 26, 2013 7:07 AM BST
HI Ell, thanks for your post but I would have gone bust ages ago using that level of stake to bank ratio with recovery , as I said in my original post I use a ratio 10000/1 or 0.01% with the bot set to stop at a profit of 0.3% only a few quid a day I know but it mounts up and seems to works for me, at the moment!
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR June 26, 2013 9:42 AM BST
I think it may be time to be brutally honest with yourself Gusher.
Ask yourself this.
Do you really think that your methodology is materially different from what millions of others have done or tried before.
Chasing is chasing no matter how you dress it up.
Reducing the stop loss level, or reducing the % of your bank per bet etc etc are extremely obvious things to do, and have been done by so many before you and have been proven conclusively not to work long term.
Now you may have a very long winning run, but eventually a combination of results will occur that will destroy everything you have made before it. I'm afraid that's a given mathematically.
The BEST you can hope for is that you don't lose more than you have won, and history shows that more often than not people chase to a level that ruins them.
So be very careful, but don't ever quit your day job on the basis of past results of a " chasing" system.
Report Ell June 26, 2013 11:04 AM BST
if I were backing my choices at level stakes I would have lost 5674 points but gained 915 @ 7.04 = 6441 points 6441-5674 = 767 points profit. So for my setup all you level stakers would suggest I back at level stakes rather than lay? Yes
Report JLivermore June 26, 2013 11:53 AM BST
"So for my setup all you level stakers would suggest I back at level stakes rather than lay? Yes"

I think you'll need to disclose a little more about how you select your lays to determine the answer here.
Report GUSCHER June 26, 2013 3:56 PM BST
Hi f.a.f  I accept what you say and have expected to get I wiped out at anytime, like i normally do!! I wouldn't give up my day job based on chasing laybets, it's just a bit of fun, well now i'm playing with profit it is!! But is it not possible to make a continuous small profit using lays if you have a huge enough bank  to cover all losses?
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR June 26, 2013 4:24 PM BST
No.
At some time or other you will be required to make a wager that is just too large for the exchange to take.
Report GUSCHER June 26, 2013 7:57 PM BST
That'll be too big for me F.A.F !!  Once my £2000 odd has been taken on the 12/13th recovery cycle I shall bow to the concensus and use my existing funds to back using my same selections but with an odds criteria adjustment to suit backing at level stakes! Never give up eh!! Cheers all for the input!
Gus
Report sheppy123 June 26, 2013 8:42 PM BST
It's all part of the learning experience. It's a shame that it takes a disaster before we take action. Phew! The story of my life!!!

I'm hoping that one day, I'll hit on something and it'll make up for all the money I've lost.

I'm sure that'll happen to you too!
Report ZEALOT June 26, 2013 10:16 PM BST
edge + compounding is the answer .

start with 1k .... make 3% per week ... compound ... 21k after 2 years .
Report GUSCHER June 26, 2013 10:58 PM BST
So with all your guy's knowledge and laying experience, How long does it Normally take for a lay system with recovery take to wipe out a bank is it days, months or could it take years I know it's a difficult thing to estimate but loads of you must have tried similar systems with similar bank/stake ratios, could I ask how long it took you to fail??
Report GUSCHER June 26, 2013 11:00 PM BST
Zealots would that be backing or laying and with level stakes I take it
Report GUSCHER June 26, 2013 11:00 PM BST
Zealots would that be backing or laying and with level stakes I take it
Report GUSCHER June 26, 2013 11:01 PM BST
Zealots would that be backing or laying and with level stakes I take it
Report ZEALOT June 26, 2013 11:11 PM BST
start with 1,000

end of 1st week - 3% on bank - new bank = 1,030

end of 2nd week - 3% on 1,030 = 1,060.9

etc etc etc ---- at the end of 104 week  BALANCE = 21,000 +
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR June 26, 2013 11:25 PM BST
Gusher
It basically depends on the volume of wagers you are making.
But you could go your whole lifetime without being wiped out, but equally you could be wiped out the first day.
But what's the point of the question.
It sounds to me that you don't really believe the maths.
If it is possible for you to get wiped out now or later, what is the point of wasting time and effort in persevering with the system?
Report GUSCHER June 27, 2013 6:50 AM BST
Because I might spend the odd grand profit and then die before I get wiped out then that can be concluded as a success!!
Report JLivermore June 27, 2013 8:06 AM BST
Spend it now and we'll call all this a success then
Report GUSCHER June 27, 2013 10:27 AM BST
Are but we can't just do that as most of us are of the same ilk, we are gamblers and just will not stop!!
Report GUSCHER June 27, 2013 10:27 AM BST
Are but we can't just do that as most of us are of the same ilk, we are gamblers and just will not stop!!
Report GUSCHER June 27, 2013 3:12 PM BST
O.K guy's you kind of convinced me & scared me into taking some action, so I have done some more in depth calculations based on the lay prices I have been getting. So here is what I am going to do. I'm going to split my bank into two and continue using my lay with recovery system. Then looking at my past 11 months results I think I may be able to use my same selections but back them at level stakes!! I should be able to make similar profit without risking my whole bank, I guess at least if you are backing and laying the same selections you can only lose the one bank at a time!! Thanks for all your input. Will let you know how I get on over the next few months!
Report sweetchildofmine June 27, 2013 3:14 PM BST
thats the power of the forum at its best, how it should always be and if its only helped you a little then its all been worth it..good luck
Report GUSCHER June 27, 2013 3:20 PM BST
Thanks for that s.c.o.m Good luck to you too!
Report ZEALOT June 27, 2013 3:24 PM BST
GUSCHER

Any "recovery" system is DOOMED ------- end of
Report kenilworth June 27, 2013 3:25 PM BST
sweetchildofmine Joined: 26 Aug 07
Replies: 15329 27 Jun 13 15:14   


thats the power of the forum at its best, how it should always be and if its only helped you a little then its all been worth it..good luck

...and 'sweety' never posted! maybe that's what he is referring to when he said  'it's all been worth it'.
Report kenilworth June 27, 2013 3:26 PM BST
err, what advice did 'sweety' offer?
Report GUSCHER June 27, 2013 3:42 PM BST
Well thanks to you all. All advice and help is much appreciated by everyone I'm sure. If you can sift through some of the junk in this forum a lot of the help is great.
Report sheppy123 June 27, 2013 3:49 PM BST
Haha, we're all try to help you and you've probably made the most profit!

I like people that are open to criticism so well done Gus!
Report c0rbchenk0 July 8, 2013 8:43 AM BST
"Then looking at my past 11 months results I think I may be able to use my same selections but back them at level stakes!! I should be able to make similar profit without risking my whole bank"

hmmm I would say if you looked at your data and worked out you can make a profit from backing the same horses you select for your lay system, you have no system, you might as well just save yourself time and go "random" .. It is your loss recovery that has made you money, nothing to do with your selection system.

I personally think you are better to neither back or lay your selections, and find a way to actually pick the horses that will win money  if you back them but lose if you lay them, or win if you lay them and lose money if you back them.

But here is a clue , If you are brilliant at backing horses and get them at the wrong prices, you will still lose money.

Then again what is value when a race that is run 3 times with the exact same horses will offer considerably different odds depending on the result of the previous race, so what is really the true value .
Report GUSCHER July 8, 2013 3:11 PM BST
Thanks Orb, but I have neither the time nor skill to follow your suggestion, only wish I had! just trying to make a few quid using the bots the best way i can! after all it's only a bit of fun! for me anyway! but thanks for your post and advice.
Gus
Report GUSCHER July 8, 2013 3:11 PM BST
Thanks Orb, but I have neither the time nor skill to follow your suggestion, only wish I had! just trying to make a few quid using the bots the best way i can! after all it's only a bit of fun! for me anyway! but thanks for your post and advice.
Gus
Report racingguru July 8, 2013 3:31 PM BST
I just don't get some people you think that tinkering around with laying/staking systems is the holy grail. To win money long term you simply have to back at a bigger price than the real chance or lay at a shorter price than the real chance (commission factored in). Obviously is a lot harder to develop those skills but no amount of to55ing around with bots/staking strategies is gonna get away from that simple fact.

Anyway good luck as I know this is gonna fall on deaf ears.
Report sweetchildofmine July 8, 2013 3:45 PM BST
Anyway good luck as I know this is gonna fall on deaf ears.




it would be a shame if it did rguru, as you make a perfectly good point
Report GUSCHER July 8, 2013 5:27 PM BST
Good point indeed but hey it's just a bit of fun from a hobby & if you can make a few quid along the way it's a bonus. If not then as long as it's money you can well afford to lose, then no harm done!!
Report GUSCHER July 8, 2013 6:08 PM BST
So just as a question of interest: if you backed and layed a 1,2,3,or 4th favourite on every u.k/ire race at level stakes for 10 years would you lose both your banks, break even or profit on one side and lose the other? or is that too unpredictable to know? I know the comm would eat into a lot of the profit.
Report sweetchildofmine July 8, 2013 6:44 PM BST
thats it in a nutshell ..the difference either way could well be marginal, but the commission would be a killer
Report racingguru July 9, 2013 2:54 AM BST
Guscher - apologies - nothing wrong in having a bit of fun and being able to write off a small sum that won't hurt you. That is the majority situation for most.

I just get tired of million threads trying to "crack" it or finding the holy grail of systems as they don't exist. Most sports and especially horse racing is very beatable but again there's no easy way other than to learn your craft to a level way ahead of the bookies/odds compilers.

Good luck in your betting.
Report GUSCHER July 9, 2013 7:03 AM BST
I'm sure you are right RG, there is no such thing as easy money
Report Obama2012 July 19, 2013 1:49 PM BST
I think their such a thing as easy money gusher, the real pros on this must be using a well worked formula, an make steady profits, their simply isn't enough hours in the day to research 20+ plus bets per day every day an then find them at odds which you think represents value.
Report 3setpoints July 22, 2013 1:41 AM BST
so maybe they back say any horse of a certain age who has won 2 races but didn't win their last race for example?
Report GUSCHER August 24, 2013 11:11 PM BST
Just a small update on my original post at the beginning of this thread, although it wont interest most of the pro's on here as I DO use a gentle recovery mode which I accept from you all that is doomed to fail! but hey I'm still having fun! and as I have just completed my 12th month of profit I thought I would update my thread with my results for the year 25.8.12-24.8.13

total profit £2353.86
total win bets 7234 from 8450 races= 85.6% S/R
total losing days = 54 out of 361 days
total losing months =0 

I have removed my original investment from my account, as advised by some of you, so am playing with profit only, so not too bothered what happens next, If I'm still in profit after the next quarter I will let you know!!
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR August 25, 2013 9:10 AM BST
Just out of curiosity, but what was the largest bet you made in that period ?
Report GUSCHER August 25, 2013 9:18 AM BST
Hi F.A.F
         A nerve racking £152!! Which paid off but I use a bot so I missed the actual recovery races!! I don't think I could have watched them anyway, I'd have been sick!!
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR August 27, 2013 1:12 AM BST
Imo just goes to show the pointlessness of any such system.
To make it even reasonably worthwhile, say to make circa 500 pounds per week, you would have had a max bet of circa 1600 pounds.
Could you have in fact even got set at that amount in the race in question ?.
Also that is all in a good case scenario of the system not yet really testing you out with a serious run of losses.
Not much point to the whole exercise is there ?
Report GUSCHER August 27, 2013 7:14 AM BST
"pointless" Yes as is 99% of gambling and gamblers but we still do it! must be for the fun as it is fun while it last. So long as your aware of the situation and don't become addicted no harm done. I am doing it for fun and don't need to make £500 per week and am quite happy to keep the stakes the same while just letting the stake to bank ratio increase every month so makes it a little safer every month!
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR August 27, 2013 1:24 PM BST
Well at least it is refreshing to read that somebody is not trying to find the holy grail of gambling.
If you really are gambling purely for the fun of it and not to try to prove the sceptics wrong about  the potential viability of chasing " gradually", then I agree that there is absolutely no harm in what you are doing.
It's just that your minor success thus far might be encouraging in a wrong way to those many out there who are desperate to fund a lifestyle through gambling.
But we're all grown ups I suppose, and people are influenced in the wrong way by your reported results then so be it.
Enjoy.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR August 27, 2013 1:25 PM BST
"-----and if people are influenced---".
Report GUSCHER August 27, 2013 3:53 PM BST
A very good pint F. I certainly wouldn't want someone else to try and copy my example, and in now way would give up my day job based on a lay & recovery strategy! I just find it interesting and fun to see exactly how long It can last and see if I can get enough profit to make it worth while withdrawing before the collapse! Cheers for your comments and to any other novices, follow oily's tips not mine!!
Report GUSCHER August 28, 2013 7:17 AM BST
F.A.F. Do you happen to know if anyone actually makes any long term profit from laying horses or do all the pro's use backing systems only with/without martingale?
Report disco dennis July 3, 2014 1:01 PM BST
ARE YOU STILL IN PROFIT GUSCHER????
Report Super Hans July 3, 2014 10:17 PM BST
Very easy to say it's only profit I can lose.

That is until you lose it. Then the problems start.

Gl if you're still going.But cash your chips now and look for something else.

The bullet will hit eventually.
Report Super Hans July 3, 2014 10:19 PM BST
Just noticed the post dates.Sad

Would suggest the bullet has already found its target.
Report learner July 15, 2014 11:38 AM BST
we hear a lot about commission surely the way round this is to back and lay on the same market
Report GUSCHER August 15, 2014 5:13 PM BST
I haven't been on here for some time and I'm afraid to say that all you wise guy's were spot on, in that about December last year I had a really bad run and lost all my bank bar £500!!  So you were right as I knew in my heart of hearts increasing stakes for recovery purposes is not the answer!!   So not to be defeated I tried a different approach! Please feel free to shoot me down in flames once again but what about this:

     I only have one laybet a day. If it loses I have made my target profit for the day. If it wins I have lost that day but I spread that loss over the next 3 or 4 days days. I increase my odds range by 50% so that I only get a few bets on per day/or stop at one third or quarter of recovery, but with the increased odds range I should hit fewer winners & with a little luck! this will only happen a few times a month. Although I have had a bad run and it has taken me 21 days (7x3!) to recover (May). But I have made a continual monthly profit so far since January. So I'm not increasing the stake for my recovery bets but just increasing the frequency of bets per day for recovery. I know people don't agree with recovery but I don't see it as recovery as I'm not increasing the stakes. I know it's a bit boring to have only one bet a day and it wouldn't suit everyone's taste, but profit is profit! Has been going well since January with profit running at +£3000 from £30 lay bet with a 90.6 S.R.

   Thanks for reading & good luck, any comments, advice good or bad is very welcome!
Gus
Report GUSCHER August 17, 2014 5:06 PM BST
Be warned! Although I don't view it as recovery! I did have a bad day yesterday(sat) where I lost 4 selections so it will take me several days or more to recover this. Weekends always seem a bit of a volatile couple of days. Maybe I should reduce the stake at weekends!
Report GUSCHER September 16, 2014 7:34 AM BST
All recovered now, so a small profit for August and no losses for first half of September.
Report mandarin September 16, 2014 10:27 AM BST
Majority of punters are boom & bust merchants, traders the same (thats no criticism just a fact), winning periods blighty by losing periods. That can extend over years, 2 good years followed by 1 bad, wiping out profits. It all equates to the same after a few years - no profit.

You've got to be totally honest with yourself if you're serious. Measure yourself over a period of 3 years, 5 years, & beyond. That's the true measure of whether you've cracked it or not.
Report Lex September 16, 2014 12:27 PM BST
Lets start from basics

You cant chase your losses. eg divide the loss by the odds and add it on to the stake etc etc.
You need value when you bet. Value is when the price you bet at is better than the statistical chance of the event happening.
If you have value then you bet at level stakes and only raise your stake when the bank has cleared its losses.


At the very least you need to know the statistical losing/winning run. You double that figure and divide your bank by that figure to get the safe level of staking.

I like laying favs. Every fav. This is because I like the frequency of bets and the buzz and that my losing runs are short.

I know that 35% of favs win and the average industry starting price for all UK and Ireland favs is 2.75.
I know there has never been 10 consecutive winning favs in uk or ireland racing.
I know it is rare as rocking horse poo to have more than 55% winning favs in a day.
I also know that if I beat the ISP by only 1% and stake 1% of my £500 bank I will over a typical year have over £250k
I genuinely pee myself when i think of 2.5% of my bank and beating ISP by 15% ( which is not hard) eg 2.75 = 2.5

I know I can acheive this in running, or where the fav price is not really a fav eg 4.0 I can do it by laying more than one.
I know that I dont have to get back the whole lost stake, just the part that was unnecessarily over staked. (thats not chasing but bank management over the betting cycle)

I know my missus says that if Im that feckin clever why aint I minted. Well Im not poor, but its because I love a gamble and lose money on those stupid bored bets...

That would make a very short book on 'betting to win' but its all you need to know.
Report TameTheTiger September 16, 2014 10:30 PM BST
I know I can acheive this in running, or where the fav price is not really a fav eg 4.0 I can do it by laying more than one.

How do you do this ? what if the other one you lay wins ?
15% under SP doesnt get matched more than 70% of the time
Report TameTheTiger September 16, 2014 10:31 PM BST
sorry that should read 15% under SP only gets matched 70% of the time
Report TameTheTiger September 17, 2014 2:04 PM BST
2.00 sandown macdillon 5/2 fav nothing matched below 3.6
Report TameTheTiger September 17, 2014 2:12 PM BST
210 beverley designate 6/4 fav matched at 2.22 in running and lost.
Report TameTheTiger September 17, 2014 2:25 PM BST
220 yar bartel 11/8 fav won.
Report TameTheTiger September 17, 2014 2:32 PM BST
230 san dartmouth 9/4 fav won
Report TameTheTiger September 17, 2014 2:42 PM BST
240 bev ajaadat 9/4 fav won
Report TameTheTiger September 17, 2014 2:53 PM BST
250 yar fever few 9/4 fav matched at a a low of 1.4 in running and lost
Report TameTheTiger September 17, 2014 5:59 PM BST
similar events for the rest of the day. Some matched below sp and lose,some go on to win,and some remain unmatched. 8 points down so far
Report Lex September 18, 2014 1:58 PM BST
and yesterday? its cyclic....
Report ZEALOT January 20, 2015 6:14 PM GMT
Any movement ?
Report aaa September 26, 2016 4:55 AM BST
'Recovery' system....mmmm

If people think their 'recovery systems' are infallible, why don't they abandon the system that needs recovering, and just use the recovery system instead?
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