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unitedbiscuits
16 Feb 19 19:22
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Date Joined: 27 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 11,030 | Blogger: unitedbiscuits's blog
I cleaned up at 9/1 twenty-years ago.
It's time to score again.
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Report n88uk February 17, 2019 4:43 PM GMT
True odds on this are 22/1 for anyone looking to back this, so beware as I'm sure bookies sharking on this.
Report unitedbiscuits February 17, 2019 5:17 PM GMT
Current odds did seem short, once I'd had a second look.
Sorry not to get back sooner but thought there was no interest.
Report trilby22 February 17, 2019 5:20 PM GMT
Laugh
Report trilby22 February 17, 2019 11:09 PM GMT
testicling ...
Report n88uk February 18, 2019 1:22 AM GMT
They will offer garbage odds on an offer like this as they know people will back it without really thinking because momentum is with them in last few weeks. Reality is the 22/1 is dependent on the 10/3 for CL for starters and personally I think that's pretty skinny.
Report tobermory February 18, 2019 1:35 AM GMT
Is 22/1 true odds though just because it is the 4 event acca price?

A lot of people would see it as a related contingency bet. So you assume that if they can win the CL they should be shorter  than they are for each of the other 3.

A horse that is 3/1 to win the 2000 Guineas and 10/1 to win The Derby would not be 43/1 to win both, as bookies would see at as 5/2 chance for The Derby if it had won the guineas, so 13/1 the double.

Man City are obviously more of a known quantity than a 3 year old horse but the same principle applies to some extent.
Report eaglewardy February 18, 2019 6:41 AM GMT
Won't be winning all 4 if they get drawn against the mighty Palace in the FA Cup
Report unitedbiscuits February 18, 2019 7:30 AM GMT
Yes, that’s true too tobermorey. On some level, everything is related and the “bandwagon” effect is a real thing.
I was really impressed with the manager’s insistence of putting his star players through the Newport test, and think the experience will help across the hard yards. But I had not given thought to the individual odds and, on second blush, they don’t look generous.
My recollection now of ‘99 is that tote were a standout 14/1but I got 12/1, which may have been above the odds for a treble at individual prices. And there is no doubt that Man United’s results in games like the FA Cup semi-finals helped their belief and momentum across all fronts.
Report asparagus February 18, 2019 8:21 AM GMT
The related contingency is very very marginal on something like this. Whilst you might not want to quite multiply up the chances in the 4 competitions you really can't reduce it by much at this stage of the season and 9/1 would be a woeful price. Whilst you can gain momentum from winning you can also get tired for having so many games. A price like 16/1 -18/1 is probably more realistic. 9/1 at the end of the day is around a combination of 5/2 for the champions league, 1/2 for the league, 8/13 for the cup and 1/6 for the Caribou and much as City are an excellent side you wouldn't want to be taking those prices or anywhere close.
Report unitedbiscuits February 18, 2019 8:49 AM GMT
Yeah, I do agree, on reflection. To start with, the League Cup final is set up for Chelsea to try and nick it, they surely won't allow an open game after last time.
Report jed.davison February 18, 2019 9:32 AM GMT
It doesn't matter how Chelsea set up, they will get hammered. Your problem is the CL, think they're nailed on to win the other three personally.
Report unitedbiscuits February 18, 2019 10:00 AM GMT
May I demur, jed? Chelsea's 6-0 defeat has bought their players to the realisation that they are not as good as the opposition, and realism gives them a chance. They will set their stall up; I remember them winning a European Cup that way. A final is a one-shot event(literally in Chelsea's case).
Report jed.davison February 18, 2019 10:32 AM GMT
You may of course demur, but you should remember that the European Cup they won was won by an entirely different team, with an entirely different manager. You should also beware of imagining that Chelsea's players either know or care that they are not as good as the opposition, or that that realisation will help them in any way against a team so demonstrably superior.
Report cricketnut2 February 18, 2019 11:26 AM GMT

Feb 18, 2019 -- 4:00AM, unitedbiscuits wrote:


May I demur, jed? Chelsea's 6-0 defeat has bought their players to the realisation that they are not as good as the opposition, and realism gives them a chance. They will set their stall up; I remember them winning a European Cup that way. A final is a one-shot event(literally in Chelsea's case).


In my opinion Chelsea are not even trying much currently. All they want is to get rid of the manager and that will happen after the Cup Final, if they lose this evening and on Sunday. They didn't try, in their away league game at Arsenal and put very little effort in against Man City. They try at home, because they sort of have to and they'll try big time on Sunday, because its a Cup Final, but Sarri, will be gone before the end of the season.

Report unitedbiscuits February 18, 2019 12:13 PM GMT
Now I'm really undecided.
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