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green army
11 Feb 18 11:06
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Date Joined: 15 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 667 | Blogger: green army's blog
Been taking 2.48 for Tuesdays game. We've just beaten Blackburn & Shrewsbury away, top of the current form league, one defeat (wigan) in 12 games. Wombles lost last 3 , 1point above relegation. Don't understand our price, normally would expect 2.0 to 2.1, any comments
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Report Tez82 February 11, 2018 11:21 AM GMT
Seems decent odds to me. You guys played us off the park yesterday. We never turned up. Was one of our worst games of the season, we just never got going. Credit to Argyle tho they played well and never gave us chance. Play like that against the Dons and you should win with ease, you guys are flying right now, full of confidence, an outside bet for promotion at decent odds too.

On the other hand Wimbledon are fighting a relegation battle themselves so will be up for it themselves. Could be a decent game.

Good Luck for the rest of the season.
Report green army February 11, 2018 11:40 AM GMT
thanks, we were rock bottom after 10 games, 7 different keepers and 6 red cards didn't help, now everyone fit and available and an emphasis on attack rather than defending, things have really turned round, I'm trading the game hoping for 2.2 max
Report Tez82 February 11, 2018 11:55 AM GMT
Yeah you were really struggling at the start of the season and have done really well to turn things around and get to where you are now. I didnt realise you've had 7 different keepers Crazy Could be a decent trade that, the odds should come in closer to KO. Good Luck.
Report FOYLESWAR February 11, 2018 12:03 PM GMT
they are in a rich vein of form, put up a lay of the shrews yesterday so happy with that and agree decent price on the pilgrims tuesday fingers crossed !
Report green army February 11, 2018 6:37 PM GMT
2.48 taken now 2.3 happy with that but should go shorter
Report Rob_The_Bantam February 11, 2018 9:30 PM GMT
Just to add, AFC spanked us 4-0 for their last points but I wouldn't attach to too much credit to it, as we were absolutely wretched and would have lost to anyone.  No bet here, but good luck.
Report Geesyerdosh February 12, 2018 8:41 PM GMT
Surprised the price hasn't fallen further. 27 points from 36 better than anyone else in the league, Wimbledon's last away match lost to bottom of the league Bury. Strange.
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 9:28 AM GMT
Bizarre market, drifting back out now.

I have noticed a few markets lately where the books seem to push out the favs and shorten the outsiders (especially ones near the bottom of the league) considerably. Are they just trying to manipulate a market as people just follow the "blue" on oddschecker? I just cannot see how fortunes are being punted on Wimbledon with their form and how they have actually been playing their last few matches, I maybe wrong but something just doesn't seem right. I would be very surprised if they do not go off shorter near kick off unless some miraculous team news comes out (that someone may already know).
Report green army February 13, 2018 9:37 AM GMT
you said it all Magic_Daps, its madness, im taking 2.5 again, the only sort of evidence I can see this is based on is our poor record against the Wombles, but we've got a completely different team now playing with pace and confidence, I cant see how those stats are relevant
Report REDUNDANT PUNTER February 13, 2018 9:42 AM GMT
Good luck on a cautionary note these stats and records built up over time are for a reason even if it doesn't seem reasonable on current form

Lots of examples around that explain the unexplainable but hope u win
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 9:46 AM GMT
RP - completely disagree regarding head to head stats. What has a game from a few years ago have to do with anything?
Report green army February 13, 2018 9:51 AM GMT
we actually won at Wimbledon in October and last time we played them at home not one of tonights 11 started
Report green army February 13, 2018 10:14 AM GMT
regarding team news we're all fit , no changes and I don't think the wombles have signed Neymar
Report green army February 13, 2018 10:19 AM GMT
Actually just heard that the Wimbles did in fact make an offer for Neymar but their bid of £15k plus a signed copy of the Wombles debut album "Wombling Free" was rejected by PSV
Report REDUNDANT PUNTER February 13, 2018 11:18 AM GMT
How do u think these records get established some teams just don't win at certain opponents or do very rarely

It's just one of those things no matter what the playing staff and yrs records do get broken

Take man city record at anfield horrendous yet they went there this season with arguably the best side in Europe unbeaten all season

But still couldn't win
Report REDUNDANT PUNTER February 13, 2018 11:19 AM GMT
Maybe being underground for so long they lost direction ended up in Holland and not france
Report Geesyerdosh February 13, 2018 2:45 PM GMT
Lucky to get out with a small loss. Logic seems to have left the building.

Is it far east syndicates? Shot data analysts? Not a clue what's going on.

Whoever and why seems utterly baffling.
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 2:50 PM GMT
Out to 2.6 now, absolutely crazy. There is hardly any money matched between 2.52 and 2.6 as if someone is laying whatever they can get matched. I would be struggling to back Wimbledon at the current price away at Rochdale or Bury!
Report green army February 13, 2018 3:07 PM GMT
hate to look at the ref, hes from North Devon but is thought to support Exeter City, surely this sort of thing doesn't happen in league 1 football !!!
Report green army February 13, 2018 3:13 PM GMT
well something is going on, max £13k matched on other league 1 games, £55k here, I'm gonna be watching the refs performance very closely tonite !
Report redbag February 13, 2018 4:00 PM GMT
Plymouth my nap of the night...the drift is alarming though and as green army states the amount matched on the match outweighs every match in league 1 fivefold!
defo looks dodgy
Report REDUNDANT PUNTER February 13, 2018 4:43 PM GMT
Wasn't this simmilar to a Plymouth game few weeks ago which I think green army highlighted
Report green army February 13, 2018 5:52 PM GMT
yes home to bury 3-0, tho this is a much bigger lay than that when you look at the sums involved and expected odds on current form, anyway I took another £1k at 2.6 and its now 2.44 so i'll live with it
Report Lucky Sod February 13, 2018 6:11 PM GMT
even sporting life have included them in the accumulator so price seems high:Plymouth to beat AFC Wimbledon (Sky Bet League One)

Plymouth can make it four wins in a row by beating struggling AFC Wimbledon.
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 6:46 PM GMT
Same line up as Saturday
Report green army February 13, 2018 6:48 PM GMT
yep, play like we have in the last 15 games and its the best 2.5 of the season
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 6:49 PM GMT
And the drift starts again even with the same side....
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 6:49 PM GMT
2.7 now
Report green army February 13, 2018 6:50 PM GMT
feck me were touching 2.8 this is weird
Report jules002 February 13, 2018 6:53 PM GMT
might just lay the dons somethings not right have they got to the goalkeeper was he inside pay backs and all that
Report green army February 13, 2018 6:59 PM GMT
goalies on loan from Norwich and has been brilliant
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 7:00 PM GMT
This is either the best 7/4 shot all year or the worst. Usually one I would stay away from but I just cannot get any angle of a few players wanting to throw this game, chance of still making the playoffs and not an end of season "nothing to play for" game.
Report equine flew February 13, 2018 7:01 PM GMT
Rarely get involved on football but just backed plymouth at 10/11 draw no bet
Report equine flew February 13, 2018 7:01 PM GMT
What can go wrong
Report green army February 13, 2018 7:04 PM GMT
no way the Argyle players would be in on anything, ok so theres £100k in the kitty that would filter down to less than a weeks wages, potential playoffs and Championship would be life changing. The ref well who knows
Report houseofpain February 13, 2018 7:07 PM GMT
I've had some of that equine 1.93 draw no bet, seems a great bet famous last words.
Report Lucky Sod February 13, 2018 7:09 PM GMT
wimbledon getting closer to plymouths price 2.74v2.88
Report The Dragon February 13, 2018 7:22 PM GMT
doubled with Bristol Rovers for a 5/1 excellent double
Report REDUNDANT PUNTER February 13, 2018 7:24 PM GMT
I think Plymouth will get the early goal
Report houseofpain February 13, 2018 7:30 PM GMT
plymouth/pompey wigan 11-1 treble.
Report REDUNDANT PUNTER February 13, 2018 7:35 PM GMT
I've gone Plymouth Charlton Swindon 15s
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 7:52 PM GMT
Plymouth hit the post in 4th minute Sad
Report equine flew February 13, 2018 8:00 PM GMT
Disallowed goal in 13th minute
Report prepared83 February 13, 2018 8:00 PM GMT
they just have a goal disallowed??
Report mecca February 13, 2018 8:03 PM GMT
1-0
Report leazes67 February 13, 2018 8:03 PM GMT
1-0
Report green army February 13, 2018 8:04 PM GMT
god carey, keep it going
Report leazes67 February 13, 2018 8:24 PM GMT
1-1
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 8:26 PM GMT
2-1
Report leazes67 February 13, 2018 8:29 PM GMT
2-1
Report Des Pond February 13, 2018 8:33 PM GMT
Blimey! Crazy game.
Report leazes67 February 13, 2018 8:34 PM GMT
3-1
Report BARNEY15C February 13, 2018 8:35 PM GMT
thought it was a missed penalty?
Report green army February 13, 2018 8:36 PM GMT
should be ok now
Report leazes67 February 13, 2018 8:36 PM GMT
£20 on Argyle on the strength of this thread.@ 2.62.
Cheers whoever put it up.
Report stu February 13, 2018 8:36 PM GMT
Nice selection good stuff Cool
Report leazes67 February 13, 2018 8:37 PM GMT
Green Army.well done.
Report REDUNDANT PUNTER February 13, 2018 8:44 PM GMT
Laying Plymouth at 1.12 in vase this turns into a conspiracy thread lol
Report green army February 13, 2018 8:46 PM GMT
and to whoever had £50k on the wombles - hahahaha
Report green army February 13, 2018 8:48 PM GMT
btw the refs behaving himself
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 8:52 PM GMT
All in all a very bizarre market and I still cannot work out what really has happened. I have layed at 1.46 and 1.11 just because I had too much on in the first place. Hope they can just get the 3 points now.
Report equine flew February 13, 2018 9:01 PM GMT
I played safe with the DNB but now wish I had gambled.  However, not greedy, lumpy bet.  Thanks OP
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 9:03 PM GMT
Easy in hindsight wishing you had more on, be comfortable with what you can afford to lose.
Report leazes67 February 13, 2018 9:05 PM GMT
3-2
Report leazes67 February 13, 2018 9:06 PM GMT
3-3 ffs
Report leazes67 February 13, 2018 9:07 PM GMT
disallowed???
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 9:08 PM GMT
Disallowed
Report leazes67 February 13, 2018 9:13 PM GMT
4-2
Report green army February 13, 2018 9:14 PM GMT
jeez me poor ticker
Report equine flew February 13, 2018 9:16 PM GMT
Missed pen Wombles.... good grief
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 9:17 PM GMT
Fecking suspensions are putting me in an early grave
Report green army February 13, 2018 9:18 PM GMT
apparently not a pen in a million years
Report The Dragon February 13, 2018 9:29 PM GMT
double looking good!!
Report Des Pond February 13, 2018 9:50 PM GMT
Good call on Plymouth. WD.
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 10:09 PM GMT
A pleasing but confusing thread at times!!
Report Whisperingdeath February 14, 2018 12:37 PM GMT
It is very strange when you see a pre match price like this. After wow my reaction is normally what is wrong? moreso on Johnny Foreigner markets particularly in South America but sometimes you just have to grab your cajones in your handS and jump in. Unfortunately I do not know enough about Plymouth but for those who did I hope you backed the courage of your convictions. The market does get it wrong and when you spot that it is the time to take your chance.
Report FOYLESWAR February 14, 2018 3:51 PM GMT
yeah plymouth seem to have been underestimated by the layers/compilers on a few occasions this season the plymouth  bury match was another example picked up by green army, dragon  and a few others on here,also a while back in the national league solihull looked way too big  around 4/1  away  to barrow iirc  and although i had a few quid on i didnt take full advantage as i knew little about the teams and went in with caution due to that, when gut instinct told me the price was out of line and solihul duly won the game .
Report The Dragon February 14, 2018 4:40 PM GMT
yes great result and worth following to win at the weekend when they take on out of form Oxford . they are rapidly coming one of my fav teams LOL!!!!
Report The Dragon February 14, 2018 4:46 PM GMT
2.92 on betfair 7/4 with 365 oxford lost 4 in 5 and plymouth won 4 in 6 and yet Oxford are favs crazy!!!
Report roache February 14, 2018 4:54 PM GMT
Odds compilers will now cotton on to Plymouth as they are just outside the play offs and on a great run
Report The Dragon February 14, 2018 5:05 PM GMT
dont seem to as yet as they are a decent price against an out of form oxford
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