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12 Jan 18 19:32
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Date Joined: 26 Jan 03
| Topic/replies: 7,343 | Blogger: If Dolphins Were Monkeys's blog
The MNF offering has tempted me to get involved in some of the games Goal mkts. This season has seen the emergence xG, Expected Goals etc  from the Analytics Hipsters enter the mainstream.  There's no doubt it can be a valueable tool to have in the punting amoury, although the meticulously styled facial hair & skinny jeans are deffo uneccesary.

I've read a fair bit of stats citing Utd were outperforming  their expected goals tally and i suppose those authors will be smugly sat sipping their latte's with the slight correction that occured over the busy december period. Taking a more  old skool look at the figures combined with a less scientific view of how the game may pan out i'm backing Utd to heap more misery on Stoke.

Some vitals :

Stoke have conceeded more than anyone to date..47, away they've shipped 27 in 11 scoring 10.

Their away defeats include ..7-2 City, 5-1 Spurs, 5-0 Chelsea & at home they've been on the end of a -2 hcp,  0-4 Chel, 0-3 Liv & 0-3 WHam.

Utd have scored a respectable 45 goals to date...25 at Home from 11, with only 5 conceeded in the process.

If we drill into Utd's record it shows an obvious trend in putting away the 'lesser' opponents especially before the fixture pile up.

PL Home victories of 4-0 against West Ham,Palace,Everton & 4-1 Newc. On the road 4-0 Swansea, 4-2 Watford & cup wins of 4-1 versus Burton & CSKA.

The title is gone for Utd, not even Devon Loch ridden by Kevin Keegan could throw it away.  Stoke was dubbed 'the Brexit Capitol of Britain' after the Referendum. The blue passports they valiantly fought for at the ballot box will not be required by their support next season.  For Utd & the rest of the so called big clubs they all have to at least save face & qualify for the CL, potential humiliation awaits for 2 of the 5 Managers who miss out.

On paper Stoke's visit to Old Trafford should be the perfect way for Utd to start the 'new' campaign on the right note.  A ten day break at this stage was a godsend for Mourinho, the 5 day warm weather trainiing in Dubai and it's rays of Vitamin D should see them re-energised enough to produce the type of 'Flat Track Bully' performance so evident early doors.

So far i've gone with Utd -2 on the Hcp @15/8, although that's with Sportsbook & they only let me have £13.80... i'll be topping up elsewhere & Utd to score  4 or more @11/4 Slybet & Sportsbook

Any football gambling i do till the end of the season is gonna have a positive outcome & not just for the cream-cookies.  It's been bl00dy cold in Mcr recently & even the predicted warm front from burning Coutinho shirts drifting down the East Lancs didn't bring any respite.... @Coffee4Craig are a local charity dealing with the worsening homeless situation, they recently appealed for sleepingbags & with a positive expectancy of a result on Mon i've paid it forward with a donation. I'll be more than happy sending them a fiver on top for every goal Utd manage.
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Report thelatarps January 12, 2018 10:09 PM GMT
Bold
Report mega88 January 12, 2018 11:03 PM GMT
Anyone seen GTFI lately ?
He's had his tent robbed by the looks of it ...
Report If Dolphins Were Monkeys January 13, 2018 11:34 AM GMT
thelatarps

Bold


Staying with the Goals theme, todays 7 fixtures in the Premier League when glanced at without any research screamed sellable. My immediate instinct was the backers on the Daily Goals mkt on here were being ahem..very bold trying to buy a few quid on the short odds
on prices & i put up a few lays which have been taken overnight. The outcome won't really trouble my balance that much either way but as an interest today it will do. I deffo wouldn't want to be sweating on Spurs v Everton at 5.30 to provide a hatfull.
Report peter the butcher January 13, 2018 12:46 PM GMT
Superb write up.
Report thelatarps January 15, 2018 7:44 PM GMT
Had a look at that stoke team
Stephen Ireland???, joe allen and darren fletch in midfield.
Choupo-moting, shaqiri and crouchy up top.
Yikes
I see niedzwicki of the old regime under sparky was picking the side.
Looks like something of a suicide note to me.
Think Dolph is spot on in his write up
Report Can't Catch Me January 15, 2018 8:40 PM GMT
Good start dolph.
Report thelatarps January 15, 2018 8:51 PM GMT
Fly me, what a save from shaqiri by de gea right at the death there.
Thought that was unstoppable.
Report Lucky Sod January 15, 2018 9:05 PM GMT
If only liverpool had de gea Excited
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