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AndrewMat
13 Aug 12 15:47
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Date Joined: 05 Jul 12
| Topic/replies: 6,403 | Blogger: AndrewMat's blog
I have been thinking about such a system for a while now. Let me explane you. You choose a match with participation of a team (or both teams), which tend to score very few goals in the first half (statistics are always available). You make a bet at Un2.5 a minute before the start (so that you don't depend on the market moving). You wait exactly 5 minutes and then you green out. Five minutes without a goal will give you 3-4%, sometimes even 5% profit. If there is no goal during those, you just get out of the market, but you need to be disciplined and do it exactly after 5 min, not 5,5, not 6 etc.
Now, if a goal is scored in those 5 min, you have 3 options.
1. You can immediately red out, loosing about 50% of your bet, but if you choose matches carefully, that goal won't happen too many times, and even with those red-outs you may still have little overall profit.
2. You can wait for another 10-15 or even 20-25 minutes, in order to minimaze you loss or even go out with the same odds and loose nothing, or even gain 1-2%, but this is quite risky consudering another goal. But, again, if you choose the matches carefully, teams that normally have, lets say, 0.8 goals in the first half, will rarely score 2 goals. So the wait can still be profitable in the long run.
3. You can put a much larger sum (lets say 5 times bigger) on Un3.5, wait for another 10 minutes and than trade out both of your stakes, the bigger one with 7-10% profit and the smaller with 20-30% loss, but the bigger profit will compensate the smaller loss and you will be in green zone. If (unlikely though) the second goal comes, you will have the 3 options again, but if you want to stuck to the system, you should put even larger sum (25 times bigger than the first one and 5 times bigger than the second one) on Un4.5, wait for another 10-15 minutes and trade out all three of them - and you will still have profit. If the third goal comes, the fourth and the last bet 125 times bigger than the first one may be put on Un5.5 and traded out with all others in halftime.
Of course, you need a big bank for this, and your profit will be very small comparing it to the bank itself, but no betting game will make you a millionare suddenly, you need to be stubborn and self-controlled. I wonder if somebody tried something similar, and if yes, I am curious about the results, and if no, I am curious what some for think about such a system. If you choose teams and matches correctly and carefully, there is very slim chance of having 4 goals in the first half with clubs that normally have less than 1. And even with 4 goals scored you can still snatch a win, as normally after a high scoring first half we have a much less scoring second.
Thoughts?
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Report Tez82 August 13, 2012 3:56 PM BST
iv done exactly this on my under 6.5 challenge thread. Except i never did any of that putting extra bets on the higher unders markets if there is a goal. i simply laid the over 2.5 goals again at the new much lower odds, usually for alot more than my original lay but with a lower liability due to the lower odds. This brings down the average odds at which you have layed in total giving you less time to wait for the odds to rise again in order for you to trade out level or for a profit.

iv been caught a few times on my thread and i have managed to get out all but a couple of times using this method. it is risky but it works for me most of the time.


Good luck.
Report AndrewMat August 13, 2012 3:58 PM BST
Thanks, Tez, interesting idea. Also this system may be used starting with Un1.5 and if there is a goal you will need to put the next bet that is not 5, but just 3 times bigger than the first.
Report starfish and coffee August 13, 2012 4:02 PM BST
Providing you're not fishing I'll offer my opinion.

Forget about option 2 and 3 straight away., you will go skint.

That leaves option 1. Here is what will happen - You will have a long period of winning bets then as sure as night follows day 2 or 3 early goals will come along in each game one after another and you will go skint.

Do not mean to be a pessimist but trust me the end result will be the same.
Report Tez82 August 13, 2012 4:03 PM BST
duno where you think people are going to get thier money from to put all these 5, 25 and 125 bigger bets than the 1st, 2nd and 3rd goals mate. so if i put a bet of £200 on and there is a goal i then have to bet £1000 on the 3.5 market??? why not just lay the overs again at the lower price giving a much less liability and wait for the odds to rise like you would anyway using your system??
Report EnvyMyGreen August 13, 2012 4:05 PM BST
Looks solid to me. I don't see where this can go wrong tbh.

Goals in the first 5 minutes are exceptionally rare.
Report Tez82 August 13, 2012 4:05 PM BST
and starfish is right it will get ya one day its just when i reckon.
Report EnvyMyGreen August 13, 2012 4:06 PM BST
I might adopt this strategy to my own mass exchange deployments.
Report AndrewMat August 13, 2012 4:10 PM BST
Tez, of course I'm not talking about $200 first bet, you need to start with 10$ to be safe. Very small profit, yes, but safety is much higher. And again, you should look for the stats thoroughly, in that case the chance of having 2-3 goals in the opening half an hour of 2-3 matches in a row will be extremely slim
Report EnvyMyGreen August 13, 2012 4:12 PM BST
Exactly. It would be a perfect storm scenario.
Report Darlo Bantam August 13, 2012 4:12 PM BST
Option 3 sounds like chasing and has poor staking strategy.
Report AndrewMat August 13, 2012 4:17 PM BST
Darlo, it is chasing, but every chase should be controlled. For example, you decide, that you will spent a part of your bank for this strategy and nothing more. You will count all your profit and if there is need to red out all the stakes, you will do it, trying to balance the profit/loss delta in your favour. Risk is always there with betting, no matter what strategy you use, it is a question of controlled risk.
Report Tez82 August 13, 2012 4:18 PM BST
Are you going to be hedging the profit over both the unders and overs when you lay off?? if so this reduces the profit in half as you are splitting it in half over the 2 markets. £10 will take a long time if your only planning on 2 or 3 ticks hedged. but best of luck
Report AndrewMat August 13, 2012 4:22 PM BST
Thanks, Tez, I may make a public experiment with this strategy some time later, when I will have a bigger bank, this was just a try to share and discuss the idea.
Report tobermory August 13, 2012 4:24 PM BST
Your assumption that the price will drop in 5 minutes is wrong.

If the game looks more open at the start the Unders price will lengthen . The 1st 5 minutes are the time when goals are least likely to be scored so 0-0 does not change anyone's view much.

Often prices at 0-0 are much the same after 15 minutes never mind 5
Report Tez82 August 13, 2012 4:26 PM BST
take a look on the my thread, iv been doing if for the last 2 weeks and it has been successful until i hit a loser and lost alot of my bank, so now im more cautious. it can be a good way of bank building and if you place your bets alot earlier, like 2 hours or more before KO you can even trade out before the game even starts iv done it for 10 ticks before now which is even better as there is no risk whatsoever.

good luck
Report Darlo Bantam August 13, 2012 4:27 PM BST

Aug 13, 2012 -- 4:17PM, AndrewMat wrote:


Darlo, it is chasing, but every chase should be controlled. For example, you decide, that you will spent a part of your bank for this strategy and nothing more. You will count all your profit and if there is need to red out all the stakes, you will do it, trying to balance the profit/loss delta in your favour. Risk is always there with betting, no matter what strategy you use, it is a question of controlled risk.


I agree. Unfortunately I've put similar principles into place - controlled yes - but if your control also goes wrong you back yourself into a corner that takes a longer time to recover from.

If the strategy works with even staking, then I'd simply red out for the loss you incur.

Report undern August 13, 2012 4:30 PM BST
Don't forget OP there are many 5min periods in a game of football ... Wink
Report AndrewMat August 13, 2012 4:30 PM BST
tobermory, that is way you need to choose fixtures carefully. If two teams do not tend to score more than 1 goal in the first half, it means that they don't play open football (at least at the beginning of the match).
Report AndrewMat August 13, 2012 4:31 PM BST
Yes, undern, but you know, I'd better put my stake on not having a goal in the first 5 min than on not having a goal in the last 5 Laugh
Report Darlo Bantam August 13, 2012 4:31 PM BST
If you're picking teams who don't tend to score much, then the unders price will be lower and won't drop that much in five minutes. I like the idea of it but think it needs some paper testing first.
Report Boozle August 13, 2012 4:37 PM BST

Aug 13, 2012 -- 4:31PM, Darlo Bantam wrote:


If you're picking teams who don't tend to score much, then the unders price will be lower and won't drop that much in five minutes. I like the idea of it but think it needs some paper testing first.


This. The market doesn't move at a linear rate, especially the first 5 mins of a half can often see no movement. And when you spot a game on form that looks like it won't have many goals, the odds can be very slim at best.  I much prefer watching a match/looking at the stats of games in-play and betting according to them. I've made some nice profits backing unders on games when it appears it will be high scoring on the form coming in, but the match stats have actually shown it to be very cagey.

Report tobermory August 13, 2012 5:04 PM BST
Waht i meant is if it looks an open game then the unders price will lengthen at 0-0 5 mins . It don';t mean it will fall in 5 mins if it is a dull opening as that will be factored in anyway

i very much doubt you have ever followed the price movements on matches while 0-0 first half .
Report Biscuit1979 August 13, 2012 5:12 PM BST
AndrewMat 13 Aug 12 16:30 
tobermory, that is way you need to choose fixtures carefully. If two teams do not tend to score more than 1 goal in the first half, it means that they don't play open football (at least at the beginning of the match).





Ok let's take Swansea v Aston Villa for example. Neither side score many, and rarely do they take a hammering. But the pre match price will reflect this and the market won't be expecting many goals. So the market isn't going to move much in the first 5 minutes if it's still 0-0.

As Darlo says, you should paper test this first. Do it across the first premier league weekend and see how it goes.
Report AndrewMat August 13, 2012 5:37 PM BST
Right, but I don't want to do this while there are less than 10 rounds played in a championship, because last season's statistic may be misleading. I'll try to do in with Japanese and Argentinian leagues for a while on paper Happy
Report donut2 August 13, 2012 6:03 PM BST
i think you have to be braver and wait 15 minutes, then the price will fall enough to make a profit.
if there's a goal in the 1st 15 minutes then just red out for what ever the lose is, hopefully no more than 50%, depending when the goal was in the 1st 15 minutes.
watching the minutes go by hopeing for no suspension will **** with your head if you do for to long.
if you can do this without fuking with your head then wait till you can lay of @ same price and get out of the game.... if another goal comes b4 this then wait again and do the same unless the 3rd goal comes in then the bets over and youve lost

only betting with £10 will take forever to make any money, you might as well work or do overtime. with the amount of hours it will take to see any profit....

THIS IS THE WAY I'D DO IT.... 
but i probably get bored of it before i made any profit tho Crazy
Report addrian August 13, 2012 6:13 PM BST
this strategy will be better in the last 10-15 min as the price for the goals drops a lot faster than the first minutes
Report Darlo Bantam August 13, 2012 6:15 PM BST
That's because there's more goals in the last 10 to 15minutes.
Report NyronNosworthy August 13, 2012 7:18 PM BST
There is definitely value in the unders markets, but under 2.5 is too risky and volatile for my liking.

Generally speaking though you rarely get two goal-filled halves - you tend to either get a tight, cagey first half followed by a more open second, or one team scores a couple of early goals then takes their foot off the gas in the second half. For example - Crewe were 4-0 up at half time at the weekend, but didn't score again until the last minute. I seem to have most of my success here - not that I'm claiming to be an expert.

Blanket backing strategies are rarely profitable, speaking from experience.
Report dreambrother09 August 13, 2012 7:29 PM BST
Not smart at all, I'm afraid. At 3-5% Profit means that you'd break even by winning 24 out 25 / 32 out of 33 matches. No decent stats will tell you that you'll go that many games without a goal in the first five minutes. That's to break even. So to profit any amount that is worth the bother would take a considerable amount of luck - something that a good strategy shouldn't rely on.
Report G1_Jockey_4 August 13, 2012 7:49 PM BST
i use this as one of my money makers.

dont use the stats though as they yend to be priced in.

you have to look for games where the odds are reasonable high but then take into account the highly likely scenario of tactical plans by one of the sides.

im sure you can work out what it is.

reason.
market makers are genuinely pricing up the likelyhood over the 90 mins  but such tactical plans make it harder early on.
Report Pootle August 13, 2012 8:17 PM BST
Wasnt it the case that neither United nor City conceded in the first 15mins of any premiership game last season?
Now both of these are high scoring teams, but if you factor in they are high scoring but with a strong defence, there could be some chances to spot.
Report superroger August 13, 2012 11:33 PM BST
You should place your bet after the kick-off to avoid the surprise of the game suspendes and dont go live for technical dificulties.
Report thecookiemonster August 13, 2012 11:36 PM BST
unfortunately you cant guarantee no goals in first 5 mins. it does happen and it takes a while to make up losses. I would play with early half time to 50min mark where the price drops faster than first 5 mins of match.

Best of luck.
Report superroger August 14, 2012 12:27 AM BST
i think in the 5min of the 2nd half we can have more goals then in the 1rs
Report pumphol. August 14, 2012 12:39 AM BST
AndrewMat     13 Aug 12 16:30 
tobermory, that is way you need to choose fixtures carefully. If two teams do not tend to score more than 1 goal in the first half, it means that they don't play open football (at least at the beginning of the match).


To be fair if you come across these games you have as much chance of nicking 10 spots in the 12 hours before the game starts as  you have in the first 5 min after kick off.
In fact if there has been a solid movement downwards before kick off there is a good chance there  wont be much movement in the first 5 minutes imo.
Report gnashersblackpool August 14, 2012 12:50 AM BST
goal line often dont move much over for first 5 mins, so not much profit.
chances of a goal in first five mins is around 1 in 11 games.
Report superroger August 14, 2012 1:35 AM BST
why dont you try "pre-live" trading? less but mutch secure profit
Report AndrewMat August 14, 2012 9:06 AM BST
Pre-live is secure, but you can't garantee the market will go your way.
Report Biscuit1979 August 14, 2012 10:45 AM BST
AndrewMat 14 Aug 12 09:06 
Pre-live is secure, but you can't garantee the market will go your way.




You cant guarantee there won't be a goal in the first 5 minutes of the game either
Report Biscuit1979 August 14, 2012 10:52 AM BST
Pootle 13 Aug 12 20:17 
Wasnt it the case that neither United nor City conceded in the first 15mins of any premiership game last season?




I know that only one side (Sunderland) scored against City in the entire first half of games at the Eithad last season.

In fact if the OP traded unders in City home games it would've been very profitable. City scored only 17 and conceded only 2 first half goals in 19 home games. But scored 55 and conceded 12 in total by full time. Or if you backed overs at half time.
Report G1_Jockey_4 August 14, 2012 5:02 PM BST
problem is prices always catch up quick relating to stats.

you will need better thinking .
Report malky1 August 14, 2012 5:08 PM BST
good thread andrew hope you stay with your thoughts and the most important ingriedient disipline is what you need.
Report starfish and coffee August 14, 2012 5:19 PM BST
Discipline won't turn a flawed system into a winning one.
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