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SwingingPick
22 Jul 17 08:06
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Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,587 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
*** Tony 'Panzerwagen' Martin

I think the Marin wind is going to have some say about the outcome of this rcae. Generally, the prevailing summer Marin increases throughout the afternoon and eases in the evening. However, the forecast is a little contradictory today. I am tending to go with Nature instead of computer models, so my analysis suggests that earlier starters will gain the wind advantage with less to be found on the course, and that the final starters, especially Froome, will face a stiffer wind and as a result more difficult conditions on the course.

In any case, even if the wind is the same for all starters, there will be some gusts up to 18km/h and that will always favour stronger and more powerful riders like the Panzerwagen. There is a short little incline with what looks like a 100m section at 14%, and an average of 7% for 1.2kms, and that will favour Froome and Roglic, however the Panzerwagen won't crack over such a short distance and any losses will be regained on the other parts of the course.

His form in the ITT has been waning of late, and he did only manage a 4th-place finish in the opener, however I like how he looked when going long-range and climbing on stage 15.

Expect a bold showing.

8/1 at SP into 7/1. Would like him to be 9/1, but he is very solid E/W value.
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Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 1:16 PM BST
Have just watched the LaCourse by TdF race won by Van Vleuten, which covers the same course as that which will be used for the ITT. Very hot on course. Wind is picking up. Tight and tricky course. Those mini-cobbles in places. Winding descent off the climb, but a good surface. The 1.2km climb is at an average of 9.5% not 7%, nothing which Martin didn't experience on stage 15 though, so should pose no great problem.

I think whilst Froome will make time on the climb, he will be safe on the descent so may wipe any gains. The Books installed Froome as an odds-on favourite at SP, and clearly they got that wrong, I think.

Roglic will have benefited from his stage 17 win. He has had some good recent results in TT races with some climbing, and I believe he first came to prominence in the 2016 Giro stage 9 ITT around Chianti. He will be in for a big ride here, but he is not unbeatable, and if Martin is on good sensations he is much better E/W value than Roglic, since a top-2 place at 1/3 is likely for him.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 1:25 PM BST
Cummings on course -- might have pushed for a top-5 if not for his crash on stage 17. Maybe a top-10.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 1:43 PM BST
Cummings looks to have cracked -- the crash has impacted on him heavily!
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 1:49 PM BST
Kiryi on course -- looks like he is being underestimated in the market. If he tries he can post a time, but it's difficult to know if he is tired or his condition is solid after driving the SKY train after Knees for long sections. Probably he is tired, I think.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 1:58 PM BST
4 TIME WC -- on course -- come on Panzerwagen!
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:06 PM BST
Surprised that bb66 hasn't popped-in to alert me that the climb average is not 7% but 9.5%. Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:08 PM BST
I've had enough of the aerial shots -- it's a beautiful city -- can the director please stay with the Panzerwagen...
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:10 PM BST
It's not always easy to know how he is going on the course without time checks, but it would help if the camera stays with him to  see if he is flowing and feeling it...
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:12 PM BST
Tracksiders ringing into the market are saying he is down -- odds 8/1 -- might top-up...
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:15 PM BST
On to the foot of the climb -- market doesn't like him, but this is going to be the critical part of the course for him -- let's see how he negotiates it.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:16 PM BST
Passed Sybar but not pulling away...
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:18 PM BST
Sad
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 2:21 PM BST
doesn't look like it's his day SP..this Bodnar dude didn't figure on ur radar?see he was a big price for a few quid
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:23 PM BST
Bodnar is a very hard rider, wherever Sagan has gone he has taken Bodnar, so that says a lot -- but no I didn't expect this from him at all.

Will it hold is the next question...
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:25 PM BST
Let's see if this going to be a pattern with fancied riders -- will Kung falter too?
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:26 PM BST
Hasn't made up any time along the straights for Martin.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:30 PM BST
Btw Bull, I attempted a big price project in the TT opener with Castroviejo -- 20/1 -- did not work then -- hardly ever works in the ITT. Will it today, though?
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 2:32 PM BST
so,have u backed any other than Martin
or waiting to pull another trigger?
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:34 PM BST
Backed Martin outright E/W and on here, got some back, but he has essentially been left in the market. Now just want to find the value to pay for him.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:35 PM BST
Waiting on Kung's sectional to analyse the pattern -- it's hard not having anyone to get on-the-ground info for this stage.
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 2:36 PM BST
so u must be pleased for ur compatriot Matthews..think he may well have overhauled Kittel in any case but Sagan would probably have proved unassailable
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:38 PM BST
Yes mate, very happy, and also that it turned into a profitable project. But I think we were denied a very interesting and entertaining competition which might have developed between Sagan and Bling.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:38 PM BST
Castroviejo. Confused
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:39 PM BST
Kung shot!
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:40 PM BST
Pity for Castroviejo, might have been the next answer to the pattern question.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:42 PM BST
Kwiatkowski would ordinarily be one to watch, but probably needs a shorter prologue-distance course.
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 2:44 PM BST
was impressed with Roglic the other day..looked smooth and strong
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:49 PM BST
Yes, looked very good, but I was more surprised that he could attack on the climb instead of along the flats, but once there he was powering along. If he can repeat that ride today, he will certainly get very close. Market is convinced he will. Kung -- 4th. That suggests there is not much a wind factor, meaning later starters won't necessarily be disadvantaged.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:51 PM BST
Are you British, Bull?
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:54 PM BST
Might be a Polish thing...
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 2:58 PM BST
The climb is the key, I think.
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 2:59 PM BST
yes SP..a resident of this once great now benighted isleGrin
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 3:00 PM BST
F*cked up that time check didn't they? was he a smidgeon up or down?
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:02 PM BST
Down, but Martin hardly brought back anything on Bodnar after the climb, so hard to think Kwaitkowski will.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:05 PM BST
That's the second one today -- the first one they got wrong was Cummings.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:05 PM BST
Now they are saying he is ahead by 1sec -- wtf!?
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:05 PM BST
* was ahead.
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 3:08 PM BST
close but no cigar
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:08 PM BST
The climb is definitelt the key -- I am tending to think that Froome might have his "bury-mode" opportunity on this climb. He did look good when bridging back after his mechanical on stage 15.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:10 PM BST
But Roglic was looking good attacking on the climb.
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 3:12 PM BST
Bodnar's gone odds on
must be all those Aussie dollarsWink
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:13 PM BST
I don't see how Froome/Roglic will be behind by the climb, though.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:13 PM BST
Make that just Froome. Cool
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:17 PM BST
Have to think Froome is going to go better on the climb -- the climb has been the key in the stage -- cannot be wind since Kwiatkowski got close. My bet is Froome.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:23 PM BST
The argument that Froome won't push it in order to stay safe is a valid one, but I just think he will be much better on the climb than Bodnar. That is solid data -- riders are not making time after the climb on Bodnar.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:28 PM BST
That was a dropped chain for Roglic.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 3:39 PM BST
Froome and Kwiatkowski have had some really hard hill climb challenges in training, but Froome wins them when he is all in, so 5-12secs there should equate to 4-10secs on the line, meaning Bodnar gets beat by Froome. The only thing the market is saying, is that Froome will wipe advantage in the corners and the descent because of protecting his lead, but if he goes into the race like that, he brings Uran into calculations, and so he has to go all-in. Froome for mine.
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 4:25 PM BST
Cry
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 4:30 PM BST
laid froome from 2.4 > 1.4
thought i was f*cked
got cold feet and laid bod nar at 1.28
for 50% profit tho it looks like he'll nick it
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 4:35 PM BST
Well done mate, always good to buy insurance, though. I just let my Froome bet stand, so a loss for me on him and Tony Martin at the start. Not a good day.
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 4:36 PM BST
he touched 1.27 SP when it was thought he was flying and deemed to be the winner on the road
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 4:41 PM BST
I don't like to trade in such stressful situations -- someone always has faster pics and/or is closer to the exchange. If I put in bids it's on more drawn-out scenes with time to think things through and set-up value. Bodnar was 200/1 at SP with the Books into 80/1 so people saw value. Still don't know he did it, though. Confused
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 4:42 PM BST
* how he did Bodnar do it...?
Report SwingingPick July 22, 2017 4:56 PM BST
The 1.27 came before the climb I believe, so it was based on confused or incomplete data, knowing that you might have held out for that price instead of 1.4 -- sounds like you have the nerves for it. Still don't know how Bodnar did it, yes Froome likely got the word he had secured his 3-peat, however with Kwiatkowski in 2nd-place I guess I was right that it was a Polish thing.
Report johnnythebull July 22, 2017 5:41 PM BST
SP you know your onions..have you been a pro rider or involved in cycling at a high level?
Report 1st time poster July 22, 2017 6:17 PM BST
the blue ribbon of cycling one by a  bloke not at his best who hasn't won a race all year, think something needs a rejig
Report padlock July 22, 2017 10:03 PM BST
You can still afford champagne for tomorrow SP, appreciate your imput on this tour ,great write ups and logic with superb tips thx Love
Report cruso July 22, 2017 11:07 PM BST
Impressed by Froome the way he came back from the puncture but when was the last time a TDF winner did not win a stage?
Is this common?
Report SwingingPick July 23, 2017 1:49 PM BST
Bull -- cheers mate, thanks for your comment. I had to look up what onions meant online fearing that naming the different vegetable varieties was not what you were talking about, but no, I have no associations with the pro peloton, nor cycling at a high level.

Padlock -- thanks for your kind comment mate.

Hope you both finished with a decent bank.
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