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SwingingPick
21 Jul 17 11:19
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Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,587 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
If the last two stages were near improssible to pick, this 223km-long stage could be just as difficult. It is one of the last opportunities for teams to salvage something for themselves from the Tour, and tactical plans will play a key role.

There are some nine teams who will consider that they have genuine chances in a bunch sprint situation after Kittel's abandonment. Of those, I think only SUN, DDD and DEN may attempt to get riders with legitimate stage winning chances into the breakaway, in order to excuse themselves from having to pull on the front all day to bring back the breakaway.

That leaves six teams to pull on the front and that is enough to bring back a breakaway containing some six riders, however should we get another big breakaway group of some 28-54 riders than a bunch sprint will be made much more difficult, and in fact half of those six sprint teams may try and get riders into the breakaway also, if they see others trying for a similar tactical plan. Which would leave three outright sprint teams having to do the lion's share of the work. 3 versus 30 does not compute.

Nevertheless, the six teams are LTS for the Gorilla, BHM for Colbrelli, TFR for Degenkolb, TLJ for Groenewegen, KAT for Kristoff and COF for Bouhani.

I think the clear pattern this Tour has set, is for massive groups in the breakaway, and so with so many teams desperate for a last chance result, another big break is very much expected.

I believe Arndt will be in the breakaway for SUN, Quemeneur (400/1 steady) for DEN and Cummings (66/1 into 22/1) or RJVR (300/1 steady) for DDD. BMC will push for a big presence in the breakaway, as they have on previous stages, since they have nothing to show for their Tour and the pressure is on for a stage win for such a heavily-funded WT team, and whilst Kung should be their best rider I feel they will go with GVA again, on account of the cat.3 climb being an enticing staging point for a selection by him with 45kms to-go. I think possibly Nasesen (50/1 steady) will be in for ALM, Laengen (400/1 steady) for UAE, Keukeleire (125/1 into 66/1) for ORS and Castroviejo for MOV.

It's a bit of a convoluted dartboard approach for this one at ante-post, however I have pinned-down two hopeful riders: GVA (14/1 at SP and steady but much better on here) is highly-likely to make the break and will be respected by the market, and Arndt is quite speculative but the speculation is anchored to some inside knowledge, and he represents very good E/W value at 300/1 SP, should he make the break.

Hot day forecast with increasing winds.

Good luck to all.
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Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 12:17 PM BST
Tough start.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 12:24 PM BST
Arndt is in the breakaway -- I would appreciate it if SKY were to close down the course here now, please.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 12:26 PM BST
Thank you SKY -- closing down the course -- allowing dropped riders to get back on the back -- 2mins already.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 12:31 PM BST
De Gendt has been in the breakaway on 11 occasions. He will do a lot of the heavy-lifting here. 3mins and I would expect some 7mins by the back of the climb.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 12:33 PM BST
There's actually no reason for SKY to hold this group...
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 12:56 PM BST
6mins, not 7mins, but with SKY on holiday it will be no surprise to see the sprinters teams to begin to form some cohesion on the front of the peloton. Not convinced they will do that with the cat.3 at some 45kms to-go, having bitten their respective sprinters legs. This might just be it for the breakaway.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 12:58 PM BST
*having been bitten already with the tough start, I should say.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 1:06 PM BST
Nice cohesion by the breakaway -- most riders coming through ti take a pull -- not going hard yet, though. Good!
Report Desmond Orchard July 21, 2017 1:13 PM BST
Great write up as per, SP. Although I do take exception to the view that yesterdays stage was near impossible to pick, some smart-ar5e posted, this before the start Cool

I wonder if Barguil might try and cap an excellent Tour by jumping off the front of the GC group today on the final climb. He has shown himself perfectly capable of riding with them and then attacking for mountain points and has a clear appetite for stages. The downside is that having secured the polka dots by then that he might rest on those laurels. He's a fair each way price, in my view, as even if not winning, he could easily pick up the pieces behind a dominant performance if other protagonists have exploded.

On to today, I fancied it would be a sprinters stage (no kittel meaning there would likely be more collusion between their teams) and favoured Matthews, given his form, to outsprint the specialists - decent EW value at 8/1 I thought. That looks sunk and favourite backers can breathe a sigh of relief as EBH has got himself into the break, giving himself two ways of winning. However, I'm not interested in 2/1 IR, as no doubt some of the strongmen will try and jump off the front of the break on the last climb and I'm not convinced he will be able to cover that move. Bakelants would've appealed had he not worked so hard for Bardet yesterday, as it is I'll probably lick my wounds and sit it out from here.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 1:34 PM BST
8mins/134kms -- the sprinters teams nowhere to be seen on the front -- very likely that the breakaway will fight it out along the cat.3 with 45kms to-go.

Will be cheering on my 300/1 shot with Arndt, but hope to solve the likely selections.

Composition of the 20 riders in the break:
Hardy
Mollema
Molard
Gallopin
Calmejane
Bakelants
Chavanel
Kiserlovski
Perichon
De Gendt
Brambilla
Keukeleire
Sicard
EBH
Swift
Gesbert
Arndt
Albasini
Bennati
Simon
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 1:39 PM BST
I might not have been as clear as I intended Desmond, I meant it was near impossible IR, certainly I agree that a rider in any stage is possible to pick, and clearly I might have done well and indeed served this forum well by reading that individual, agreeing with much of his analysis. Blush
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 1:52 PM BST
EBH will require things to go his way. Riders will not want him in a sprint. I anticipate attacks before the cat.3 and whilst he should have no trouble with handling the gradient of 4.1% on the cat.3, the 5.8kms distance will rapidly fatigue him if riders decide to attack him and force him to close down gaps. His 2/1 price suggests he is already involved in a sprint, and there is a lot to happen for him to be involved in a sprint.

There is going to be a classics-style fisticuffs stage for the breakaway, and teams with multiple riders are in the big advantage. For instance, Gallopin will have De Gendt to go out for him and cause fatigue in those riders froced to close, and he looked very sharp on yesterday's stage.

It's going to come down to who will work with who, who will close attacks, this is not a done deal for EBH.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 2:14 PM BST
Some of these riders are already soft-pedalling...
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:01 PM BST
What's this then exactly, SKY begin to pull after the Intermediate. Bit too late lads. Cool
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:06 PM BST
Trying to beat the forecast thundersorm home -- the thunderstorm will be at the base of the Col du Pointu! Cool
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:16 PM BST
I really enjoyed the two LTS teammates, countrymen and Belgian-speaking on Belgian Day riders of Gallopin and De Gendt plotting their tactics at the back of the group, earlier.

Belgian riders are so smart and to have two Belgian hardmen together discussing their plan against the 18 other riders -- you just know they have something clever in store.

Whether it will work is another thing, but I think their best plan -- and a lot of it comes down to an honest appraisal of their sensations -- will be for De Gendt to admit he is willing to reach out "bury mode" when not expected by the other riders on the final climb, or soften them up with a couple of accelerations, and have Gallopin stay on EBH's wheel, unless he EBH covers the attack by De Gendt, in which case it might be for Gallopin to counter.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:27 PM BST
Kooks going long here, he matched GVA in GW in Flanders Fields in the spring, when just getting beat. Very strong rider, but this is still a long way and he has opned anything here as yet.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:28 PM BST
He hasn't opened up anything as yet in terms of a gap.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:29 PM BST
Back in the group...
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:33 PM BST
Kooks obviously wanted some of the other riders disadvantaged by the climb, to go with him and build a gap until they get there, but nobody came to the party and he drifted back in.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:36 PM BST
Arndt, Swift, and a couple of these others might take that move by Kooks as an idea of a good plan. Unless they hope to work together in their own group after hostilities erupt on the climb, and the stronger riders on this gradient distance them.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:40 PM BST
Here we go two attacks -- already!
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:41 PM BST
Versatile riders need to get rid of the sprint-fast riders.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:41 PM BST
Gallopin sitting on the back as predicted.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:42 PM BST
De Gendt is going to go long here, I believe.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:44 PM BST
Gallopin could be hurting from yesterday -- I would have thought he looked very sharp and would have something good to show.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:45 PM BST
Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:47 PM BST
Mischief
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:51 PM BST
Gallopin bridges -- very strange for him to be at the back, then attack, and then be struggling to get back on.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:52 PM BST
Mollema had a little dig on the descent, he looked very good the other day when he won on the flats in that TT-style, I think he will be willing to do that again today, but he needs to time it perfectly.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:54 PM BST
Head-wind all the way to the finish -- attackers disadvantaged!
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:57 PM BST
Looks like it might be a surprise attack in the final 2kms by one of these not wanting a sprint. Mollema, Kooks, Bakelants, De Gendt, Brambilla, Calmejane...
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 3:58 PM BST
Kooks or Mollema for mine.
Sitting on Arndt but he is pretty fast.
EBH is getting an easy ride so far and he could surprise with his own late attack.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:01 PM BST
Can someone tell these guys they are racing each other and not the peloton -- why are they combining??
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:03 PM BST
There's no way 20 riders are coming to the line together! No way!
Report bb66 July 21, 2017 4:04 PM BST
Gallopin is French, not Belgian
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:04 PM BST
Someone here is feeling on good sensations and will sense the moment to go "bury-mode".
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:04 PM BST
Belgian team. Blush
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:05 PM BST
What are you doing here with your picks, bb66?
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:06 PM BST
They both speak Flemish! Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:07 PM BST
I'll be very happy with a podium here from Arndt and collect place terms, but if he comes into a sprint he has a very good kick!
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:08 PM BST
Waiting on your thoughts here bb66...
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:09 PM BST
No way anyone attacking on this straight road...
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:11 PM BST
Okay bb66 mate, hope to hear from you after the finish line. Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:15 PM BST
You know there is one guy who is going to panic -- hope it is not Kooks.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:18 PM BST
Bruising affair. Love
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:19 PM BST
19kms to-go...
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:22 PM BST
Three groups.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:23 PM BST
Front group have it, I think.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:27 PM BST
Yes, front group, home.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:28 PM BST
De Gendt looks really good.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Chavanel is a Frog!
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:32 PM BST
Sitting back and enjoying this now.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:33 PM BST
If Arndt wins this he will be the biggest winner I have ever posted!
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:35 PM BST
Bruising... Love
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:38 PM BST
EBH home -- distances Arndt.Sad
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:39 PM BST
Arndt riding for a podium -- come on my son!
Report padlock July 21, 2017 4:39 PM BST
Couldnt play stage today,any fireworks?
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:40 PM BST
Arndt 2nd! Love
Report padlock July 21, 2017 4:42 PM BST
Wow great pick SP
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:42 PM BST
Grin
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:44 PM BST
Arndt was in front, but EBH went over the top of him and looked like the winner.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:46 PM BST
Absolutely loved that, but feel a bit deflated to get so close to the win on an outright bet.
Report padlock July 21, 2017 4:49 PM BST
300/1 each way Silly amazing result
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:50 PM BST
Had Kooks for 3rd too, but only for loose change.
Report SwingingPick July 21, 2017 4:51 PM BST
125/1.
Report padlock July 21, 2017 4:59 PM BST
I picked the wrong day to be busy Angry
Report johnnythebull July 21, 2017 10:57 PM BST
WD..SP..u da man!
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