Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
SwingingPick
19 Jul 17 11:41
Joined:
Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,589 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
This is the first time in the Tour's past three editions where the Col d'Izoard has been used in the finale or as the summit finish to the stage. Both in the 2014 177km stage 14 edition, and the 200km 2011 stage 18 edition, the Izoard had been used in the middle of the three categorized climbs, not at its conclusion. 

In 2014 Majka won what was regarded as the queen stage, when he attacked the remaining riders of the early 17-man breakaway with some 10kms to-go. The race for 4th-place was won by Pinot when he came home stronger than Bardet after a tough fight between the two FRA riders.

In 2011 Andy Schleck attacked on the Izoard out of the select peloton and with some 60kms to-go, to solo to victory, using satellite teammates up the road. It was a magnificent tactical move by Leopard Trek, and it was a dream day with brother Frank finishing in 2nd-place.

I think it is expected that a large breakaway gets off the front, which is very likely to include Bling as he seeks to cut his difference to Kittel in the Points classification to only 9 points. Barguil was 8/1 at SP and has gone into the outright favourite at 6/1. This is based on his likely involvement in the breakaway for the considerable KOM points on offer, particularly on the summit finish, although perhaps not defending his lead against De Gendt and Roglic so much as neautralizing GC contenders KOM involvement. The GC contenders like in 2011, 2013, and 2015, were involved in the KOM competition, even in 2014 when Majka won it they were involved. GC involvement whilst not surprising, nevertheless can cause a flurry of movements on the classification table and Barguil/SUN are aware that by winning these stages with double points on max points summit finishes, will allow a rider like Froome, upon winning the stage, to close the gap to Barguil to 42 points.

Attacks are likely to be launched by Bardet and Aru, so SKY will maintain a high tempo to prevent attacks from forming. If ALM have a plan it's likely to be the similar approach of their stage 9 ride, with forward satellites for Bardet. This would also match what Leopard-Trek did, so ALM may feel inspired. I think Bardet is looking strong coming into this portion of the race and SKY know it, so am expecting all hands on deck, and hard riding from SKY to give the young FRA rider a tough outing. From Aru I can only envision a very late attack for a handful of secs on the final climb, so whilst a threat, less likely of one than Bardet. I don't see Uran as a major threat at all, although he is riding in career-best form. We may not have seen much from Froome off the front and plenty to suggest some weaknesses, however on the stage 15 where he suffered from his mechanical, the ride to rejoin was impressive and if it was conducted off the front it would have been race-winning, under the right conditions.

In conclusion; the breakaway's chances are less likely on account of SKY monitoring the situation and giving Froome's GC rivals a hard ride. ALM may have something up their sleeve and Bardet should be strong, however I'm convinced Froome is strong-enough to defend any attacks and he will go close, also. Froome to win (9/2 favourite at SP into 7/1) from Bardet (6/1 at SP into 8/1) unless ALM get something big organised for the stage win.

Good luck to all.
Share |
Pause Switch to Standard View TdF 2017 Stage 17
Show More
Loading...
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 2:24 PM BST
Mollema pulling out time on UAE & Kiry. That surprises me, going to be nearly 4 mins at the climb.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 2:28 PM BST
Pantano gone.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:30 PM BST
Gave very fine service...
Very impressed by the teamwork in this year's tour.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 2:30 PM BST
Contador changing his bike again.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:31 PM BST
Yes, it's gone the other way, not 2:40, but 3:40, but they are taking it very hard here, and the Galibier bites!!
Report bb66 July 19, 2017 2:33 PM BST
another dubious bike change by AC
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:36 PM BST
Here we go, let's see what kwiatkowski has got here?
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:38 PM BST
The market is suggesting there is only one rider in the breakaway -- there have been a lot of riders who have done no work and if it's a TT flats cooperation situation it's up for grabs for the remaining riders.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:41 PM BST
It doesn't look like there will be much action in the peloton before the Galibier.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:42 PM BST
Bertie will attempt an attack out of the breakaway group on the Glibber, too.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 2:42 PM BST
Hope they check these bikes Contador is discarding before and after climbs. There really is no need for it and it's constant with him.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 2:43 PM BST
Mollema looks like he's nearly done so Contador will have to go when he finishes.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:45 PM BST
The situation isn't really a terrible one, the Galibier is where the gaps will be opened or closed -- for the GC battle winner it is going in the wrong direction presently, though.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:46 PM BST
Goig before the Galibier would be a mistake for Bertie.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:49 PM BST
Kwaitkowski hasn't closed anything so far,
looks like he is being kept in check,
for at least a good part of the Galibier.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:52 PM BST
4:40 for the Bertie breakaway could be enough by the start of the Galibier, I believe.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 2:53 PM BST
If the timing is right.. Over 5mins now.. Going out at a ridiculous rate.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:54 PM BST
Wow -- that was quick -- more like 4mins -- I thought.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:54 PM BST
This will be an alarm for SKY, surely.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 2:58 PM BST
Timing must have been wrong. Went up stupidly quickly and now coming back at the same speed. Down to 4' again.

If Kwiato can get to the bottom of the Galibier. Nieve and Landa could drill the Galibier from the start if Froome is feeling good.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:59 PM BST
We know that maintaining the gap on the Galibier will not be as easy for the breakaway as it is here.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:01 PM BST
ThThis stage is going to crumbs of a win... Cry
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:04 PM BST
3mins by the start -- not enough!
5mins by the start -- enough!
...but then you have the TT cooperation along the flats situation to solve. And you need composition information for that.
So what do we know?
Bertie is all-in for the win -- team have done a lot of work -- he is expected to perform -- he is on good sensations and fighting.
Bloody short price -- no value.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:08 PM BST
So who can beat him from the breakaway?
Depends on where they are...
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:09 PM BST
Riders from the breakaway may gain favourable conditions by forming alliances to form a strong TT group along the descent/flats...
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:11 PM BST
Roglic is a very strong TT rider, but will he hold this climb?
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:11 PM BST
He rode well on the climbs in the Crit Dauphine.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:12 PM BST
My apologies, that was Romandie, 3rd on GC.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:12 PM BST
...And won the TT.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:14 PM BST
I think he will be capable of sticking with Bertie, but gap finally coming down as expected on the climb that bites back.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:16 PM BST
Pauwels is there for you CJ, hope you have that in a handy way?
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 3:16 PM BST
Roglic probably a similar strength climber to post-ban Contador in France I'd say. He was Lotto NL's GC hope before he came down in that first TT.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 3:17 PM BST
Have no money on anything as I have no connection today. Basically struggling to load text Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:18 PM BST
Pauwels is such a diesel, just requires his own pace and rhythm...
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:18 PM BST
Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:19 PM BST
Bertie at evens, now...
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:21 PM BST
Gap has stabilised/come down, and it's not even the steep stuff yet.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:22 PM BST
That's Frank and Atapuma and Frank looks better, Bertie looks to be hitting his limits now. Pauwels setting the diesel pace.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:23 PM BST
Yes, Atapuma is cooked!
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:25 PM BST
Well, at least boiling over if not cooked entirely.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:26 PM BST
Group compositions on the descent/flats is going to be an issue -- this is not easy!
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:27 PM BST
A solo attacker on the climb just prior to the descent will be rought back by a group combining together behind.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:28 PM BST
*brought
Report padlock July 19, 2017 3:28 PM BST
Wtf are the gc guys gonna attack,dont they want to win this race ? Annoying stage
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:29 PM BST
Gap still coming down and 9kms still to climb, it's going to be decided on the group compositions on the flats -- it's very annoying. How slow are they going that Navarro has come across so easily?
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:30 PM BST
Pace too high and climb not steep enough for anyone to attack the SKY train, padlock.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:31 PM BST
If there's going to be GC attacks it'll be nearing the top, but that won't mean anything if there is no support on the flats...
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:31 PM BST
If they begin attacking each other that won't help their chances... Grin
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 3:32 PM BST
Can't see Bardet & Aru taking time on Froome in this descent? Maybe Uran could take time from Froome descending? Don't think it's technical enough for Bardet & Aru reminds me of Schleck.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:32 PM BST
... the breakaway, that is.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:33 PM BST
No mate, I've said it from the outset, it eventually becomes that power descent which advantages a group combining together well. Certainly not a steep, daredevil descent where they fall rocks!
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:34 PM BST
Navarro cannot win -- sorry CJ!
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:35 PM BST
Yates should respond to Dan martin!
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 3:36 PM BST
Martin goes, that might put the nail in the coffin of the break. Roglic drops the rest of them.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:36 PM BST
Not really, only Yates has an interest in Dan, I think.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 3:39 PM BST
Landa on the front. Now it gets interesting.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:40 PM BST
Roglic is a TT rider and they will not catch him on the descent, unless they combine together nicely.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:41 PM BST
... and even then it'll be hard.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:46 PM BST
Atapuma will not bridge solo to Roglic on the descent/flats, Roglic very  hard rider in the TT discipline.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 3:47 PM BST
Aru is dead here. If they work together they can end his podium ambitions.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:49 PM BST
These are just burns though -- the descent/flats would allow Aru to rejoin Froome group, especially if he gets into a cooperative group.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 3:50 PM BST
Aru can't descend. If he's not on the wheel of that leading group he's losing time here.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:50 PM BST
Market says Roglic and I cannot fault the market -- very strong in the TT discipline and the chase group are not very string so even if they combine he should hold them off -- barring crash/mechanical.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 3:50 PM BST
Yeah unless Roglic has a problem it's his stage now.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:51 PM BST
Aru can descend well-enough and this isn't a rock-dropping descent and turns to power-descent flats riding by the conclusion -- Aru in no trouble in my view.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 3:52 PM BST
Power descent will hurt Aru more than a technical if he's not in the wheel. Each time he gets dropped he's only with Meintjes who will have the same problem.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:53 PM BST
Roglic looks fresh, considering, even if Atapuma makes it across prior to the descent he will not beat Roglic in a sprint, and may get dropped early on the descent.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:53 PM BST
Whilst we have been talking his part of the group, anyway.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:54 PM BST
This steep section approaching, is not long enough for Aru to suffer a great gap.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:57 PM BST
Roglic, the former ski-jump junior world champ -- will he fly for home?
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:58 PM BST
Bertie caught by Froome group -- reached evens at one point!
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 3:59 PM BST
Okay, 18secs for Aru, I think he will rejoin, I take it you don't, CJ?
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 4:00 PM BST
If the GC group are pushing he won't get back on, if they are just sitting he'll get back.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:00 PM BST
This bit is a bit technical, but it'll flatten right out later.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 4:01 PM BST
Bardet pushing, I'll say he's got no chance of coming back.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:02 PM BST
Fair enough.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:06 PM BST
Top-tube riding from Roglic -- Froome style.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 4:06 PM BST
Landa back on, so Aru might also get back. Think you maybe right there.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:08 PM BST
If they are pedalling along a descent it is a power-descent. Sure there is also a lot of aero -- but look how it's flattening out here...
Report padlock July 19, 2017 4:09 PM BST
Bardet supposed to be superior decender so why isnt he going flat out? Bizzarre
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:09 PM BST
Actually that's a lot of aero-tuck there from Roglic -- might need to put more work into my descents understanding.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:10 PM BST
Padlock, Bardet like other top descenders are daredevil descenders, they require technical, steep descents where they drop like rocks.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:12 PM BST
This is the section where they require combing, and they are combining, and the fact that Roglic is top-tubing and pedalling suggests the resistance is just not right.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:12 PM BST
Now that Aru didn't make it across on the steeper section, I think he might not make it across now -- Frrome getting a lot of help.
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 4:13 PM BST
What SP said. On this sort of descent it's more TT ability that counts rather than descending, so Bardet might well be the worst out of this group.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:16 PM BST
Good call CJ, Aru was in small trouble on the climb and he has turned it into a disater for the GC, Such a small error by not closing that 12secs on teh steep portion of the descent, has allowed the gap o open right up on this flatter sections and he is gone -- game over for Aru in the GC.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:16 PM BST
Apologies for the spelling, am watching and typing! Plain
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:17 PM BST
Actually, I understood this descent quite well, thank you very much -- this is flats riding as far as I'm concerned.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:19 PM BST
You can quite easily see that a bigger group combing, and chasing a solo rider could do a fair amount of damage in these final 8, 5, now 4kms...
Report CJ70 July 19, 2017 4:20 PM BST
Aru losing a minute here even though he's riding with Martin and Meintjes. Landa did so well to get back on as Aru was right behind him at one point.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:21 PM BST
Yes, like you said on the climb, CJ.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:24 PM BST
Roglic has developed here, he had a good Romandie ride, but I didn't expect him to go before the summit and thought he might get distanced if an attack were to have occurred prior -- but he was the one to have attacked so he has performed better than he has before and therefore must have developed in this ride.
Report saddlers hall July 19, 2017 4:31 PM BST
test
Report saddlers hall July 19, 2017 4:33 PM BST
anyone else finding this tour boring?  Lack of mountaintop finishes is making it too boring 4 me  #vuletafarbetterimo
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:35 PM BST
Well, it wasn't the most entertaining stage, but a breakaway rider won, and one who did no work whilst Pantano and Mollema were driving it for Bertie.

Roglic was 66/1 at SP into 33/1 pre-start, so there was interest on him, definitely. But not by me, I have to admit. Not a loss though, thankfully.

The breakaway never required 10mins, it would have been different without TFR involvement and we never saw much fisticuffs from the GC contender, except for nearing the summit, and SKY's pace was high, but not high enough to close down the 3mins on the final climb proper, however Roglic would always be strong along the flats with some 8kms to-go even if they were closing on him, and so it would have been maybe a closer run thing, but not necessarily a different result, I don't think.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 4:41 PM BST
I sometimes say that it is a boring stage on the bunch sprint stages when a small group is off the fron with no hope, but I don't really mean it, I love being a part of the Tour and enjoy something in it each day, even the rest days. [:laugh:

To answer your question, no I don't find it boring but I accept that there could be more GC excitment with riders smashing each other stage after stage in the mountains. Vuelta is a top GT race, I agree with you on that, though. Being the last of the GTs it seems to be more consistently enthralling, but it's not like the Tour.
Report padlock July 19, 2017 4:44 PM BST
Sky make it a bit dull imo,policing everything , so superior to the other average teams who have infiriority complex
Report saddlers hall July 19, 2017 4:54 PM BST
not really interested in betting on the tour but love the scenery combined with quality racing but finding there are too many sprint finishes and the mountain stages are finishing in the valleys. took today of work and would have expected more fireworks to be honest.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 5:41 PM BST
Well I confused the stages between tomorrow and today, so that was a bit embarrassing, but I think given it is a summit-finish and Froome has won a summit-finish in two of his three Tour wins (last year he didn't technically win on the summit as the ITT had a short descent, and stage 8 was now his famous top-tube descent win) so there is an expectation that the foru main GC men  should fight each other tomorrow on the final climb, and that might make for much more engrossing entertainment. I think that whilst there might again be two races on the road, between GC and breakaway, the final climb should give is a much greater sorting out between the GC combatants since we haven't seen a "bury-mode" attempt by a GC rider, except for Aru's 2.4km effort on stage 5, which wasn't the kind of climb they will be facing tomorrow.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 7:11 PM BST

Jul 19, 2017 -- 7:05AM, SwingingPick wrote:


Bertie can try this type of attack all he likes, however the data supports the fact that his form is not there for such a long sustained effort. The only thing it is doing is animating the pace of the peloton led by SKY and bringing it back toward a GC battle.I think he flounder on the Galibier, but I'm not willing to lay as I respect his pedigree.


I might not have been so respectful of a rider who is unlikely to ever return to career-best form, I believe. He was trading at Evens at one point for limited liquidity.

Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com

New to Betfair?

You need to open an account before you can add content to the forum.

Opening an account only takes a few minutes.

register now