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SwingingPick
16 Jul 17 12:07
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Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,578 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
Typical traverse through the Massif Central with its relatively high elevation and plenty of undulating roads of significant climbing difficulty. This one looks a lot harder than stage 14 in the 2015 edition. It's slightly longer, and whilst it also contains four categorized and additional uncategorized climbs, they are much more difficult on this occasion. The cat.1s, one at the start and one nearer the end look particularly challenging, especially the cat.1 with 40kms to-go since it's 8.3kms @ 7.4%, with a 1.8km section in the middle at 14%. Then that's followed with an 18km section of descending where a lead might be consolidated by the rider who was to attack on the 14% section, however output would have to be measured very finely indeed, on account of a deceptively tough cat.4 soon after with 1.9kms @ 6.8%. Which is then followed by an uncategorized bump which is similar in nature to that one late in stage 9, where Barguil finally cracked and Bardet went past him. I think the key to this stage from my analysis is its conclusion; the uncatgeorized bump which -- on paper looks like it -- will decide the winner.

It is highly likely that this stage will be one of those "transit" stages where a big breakaway group is permitted to go up the road and the peloton just switch off completely after being satisfied with its composition, effectively giving themselves an early Rest Day. It's going to be hot and sunny, they've just had some tough stages and the Rest Day cannot come soon enough -- might as well start today for the majority.

Warren Barguil has a handy lead in the KOM competition and with the climb beginning soon after the start and offering 15 points, it is correct anaylsis to expect him to want to protect his lead over De Gendt, Landa and Roglic, and therefore I would expect him to be involved in the early clashes as the riders seek to form the day's breakaway group. Barguil was involved in the two big breakaway stages 8/9, and finally won a stage from the breakaway when having the strongest and smartest kick in a 4-up sprint on stage 13. Incidentally, he moved into the Polkadot jersey on stage 9 and confirmed his intentions to protect it into Paris with that stage 13 ride to win. With Voeckler being the last FRA rider to win the Polkadot jersey in 2012, Barguil knows the significance of winning it as a FRA rider and he should be fighting for it today, which will consequently see him make the break, perhaps along with Bling but more like Geschke since this stage is too hard for yesterday;s stage winner. Barguil was installed as the 12/1 second favourite at SP and has shortened into 10/1, with some E/W value. He is still being matched on here at 11/1 and better, with 13/1 representing fair value given his climbing talent and therefore the ability to make an attack on the steep part of the final cat.1 climb.

I also like Lilian Calmejane for the breakaway. With teammate and mentor Voeckler having been involved in failed breakaways on stage 5/9/14 and conversely Calmejane winning stage 8 from a breakaway after showing his impressive potential in the breakaway on stage 3 when pressing forward after Hardy, De Gendt and Perichon had given up -- he has the youthful enthusiasm and talent to want to be involved today, and respresent's DEN's best chance for the stage win. 

Steve Cummings won the 2015 stage 14 from a long-range breakaway, beating two much better climbers and whilst I understand him being installed as the favourite for this stage, I question if he has recovered from his solo attempt on stage 12. He tends to need a longer timeframe to recover from such heroic rides, and unless he is on good sensations I think this stage might be too early for him.
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Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 1:31 PM BST
This stage might have been quite easy to solve -- and gone quite differently -- if it wasn't for TFR missing getting Mollema into it, and then complicating things by forming this massive second chase group.

Barguil in the lead as expected, he has both Bling and Geschke in the chase, and they are contributing on account of the Intermediate Sprint points for Bling. Calemejane in the chase group, also.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 1:35 PM BST
The chase group are getting a lot closer and I think they may rejoin, soon.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 1:37 PM BST
That will make it 28 riders, and the highest-placed is Caruso at some 11mins, so SKY will never just switch off as I would have expected they might.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 1:59 PM BST
Over 5mins for the breakaway, looking good for them.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 2:12 PM BST
Composition: 28 riders
LTS
Benoot
Gallopin
De Gendt
SUN
Barguil
Bling
Geschke
KAT
Panzerwagen
Lammertink
Kiserlovski
BMC
De Marchi
Roche
Caruso
Moinard
DEN
Sicard
Calmejane
COF
Navarro
Luis Mate
UAD
Ulissi
Durasek
FVC
Perichon
Hardy
---
Mollema TFR
Bakelants ALM

Break have it, I believe.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 2:14 PM BST
Pauwels
Grmay
Van Baarle
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 2:15 PM BST
Pinot
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 2:18 PM BST
Roglic
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 2:22 PM BST
SKY not switching off as expected, but probably this is just to keep it at around 5mins to prevent other GC teams panicking and causing chaotic scenes on the front of the peloton. Still with the break, I believe.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 2:28 PM BST
Market is all over the place.
Will be interesting to see if after winning the imminent Intermediate, Bling drifts back into the peloton, I think he might.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 2:31 PM BST
Easy!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 2:34 PM BST
Doesn't look like it. I guess they'll want to see where Bling is on the final cat.1 climb and maybe using him as a counter for Barguil, however they risk pushing him too far when he is in such good form, so that could backfire down the road with his condition.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 2:41 PM BST
This climb is 11.5 @ 3.5% -- uncat -- but probably a cat.3 normally.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:18 PM BST
Firstly: Break home.

Secondly: Gaps in the GC due to positioning factor going into this final cat.1 -- could be more bad news for Aru.

Thirdly: The best climbers in the break will need to bust it up the final cat.1 climb and then combine well together to prevent the possible regroup by the chasers. The climb is hard-enough and long-enough for them to open a big-enough gap, and the fact that this is such a big group will force attacking riding and the majority will crack I think, and so therefore I think htere is little chance of a regrouping.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:23 PM BST
Panzerwagen did this sort of thing in the 2014 edition of the Tour, when on stage 9 he beat Spartacus, GVA and Dumoulin + others by 2:45.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:28 PM BST
Panzerwagen will probably require some 3mins by the bottom of the final climb to stay with the climbers -- of Pinot, Caruso, Calemjane, Barguil, and Mollema -- once they catch him. But if they do and he sticks on, he will come into calculations in a very big way with the long run-in into the finish.

1+min lead now for thePpanzerwagen. Still 15kms to build it to 3mins.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:29 PM BST
Good tactics by KAT -- breaking it up by Kiserlovski!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:39 PM BST
1:30 is impressive for the Panzerwagen, however he requires 2mins to a minimum and 3mins more comfortably -- 5kms to-go -- see how he goes, but he is nowhere near home yet.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:42 PM BST
4 v. 1 -- still gap opens.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:47 PM BST
Bardet -- local knowledge!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:48 PM BST
Two races! Love
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:49 PM BST
1:24 Panzerwagen.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:50 PM BST
Porbably not enough -- see who begins the fireworks in the chase and how hard they go.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:50 PM BST
Geschke gone!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:51 PM BST
Froome -- mechanical!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:54 PM BST
1:07 for Panzerwagen -- not enough to hold with teh climbers as they bridge across to him, I believe.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:56 PM BST
What a race! Love
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 3:58 PM BST
Steep stuff for the Panzerwagen...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:00 PM BST
Climbers busting it up now -- mainly Barguil, though!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:03 PM BST
Climbing nicely is Barguil...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:03 PM BST
Panzerwagen cannot stick as expected and will probably crack completely now!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:04 PM BST
He never cracks though, always keeps hmself within himself. Blush
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:05 PM BST
Calmejane could be a future Tour prospect -- no doubt!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:06 PM BST
Sad stuff!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:06 PM BST
...Froome being booed....
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:08 PM BST
Had Pauwels on the short list but the favouritism of Cummings prevented me from firing...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:08 PM BST
Barguil needs him though, still a long way to go once they summit...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:12 PM BST
See the composition here...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:13 PM BST
Mollema can go all the way...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:13 PM BST
He has been working very well and staying positive, but it's still a long way and solo will be that much tougher.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:14 PM BST
Just want him to rediscover that exceptional form he showed at the tail-end of last season.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:19 PM BST
Just not an easy one at all...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:20 PM BST
16secs is not enough, obviously, but want him to win.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:22 PM BST
21secs... he is all in!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:22 PM BST
Calmejane rejoining!ExcitedLove
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:24 PM BST
Expect a counterattack on teh cat.4 -- but the regroupin with the chasers suggests they are going slow -- come on Mollema!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:24 PM BST
It's a big ask -- but I'm with him!
Report casemoney July 16, 2017 4:24 PM BST
1.43 Froome is too Short IMO he has looked Vulnerable on a Couple of Occasions
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:25 PM BST
You just feel that by winning a stage like this is what he needs to go with it at this level -- next progression for him -- stuff!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:25 PM BST
Not even looking at that today case, sorry!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:26 PM BST
Nice rhythm by Mollema -- extending the gap...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:26 PM BST
38secs...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:28 PM BST
43secs...
Report casemoney July 16, 2017 4:29 PM BST
u On BM   Sp ?
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:29 PM BST
He's feeling it -- good boy -- stuff!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Mainly green with him mate -- just want him to be a contender and this is the win he needs to become next level! Belief!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:32 PM BST
He signalled it on San Sebastian -- in places in teh Giro -- held his condition well -- could finally gain the belief he needs to become a GT contender or classic specialist!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:33 PM BST
45secs...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:33 PM BST
20secs -- make that!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:34 PM BST
Lost half of his lead on that climb -- so Barguil and Roglic could bridge to him on the up coming bump with 13kms to-go.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:35 PM BST
Add Ulissi to that!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:35 PM BST
And Gallopin!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:35 PM BST
18secs...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:36 PM BST
That bump is going to be -- as predicted -- the race...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:36 PM BST
Still looks good on the flats for Mollema...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:36 PM BST
That bump though...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:37 PM BST
10kms to go --
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:38 PM BST
20secs...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:40 PM BST
Okay enough GC thanks --
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:40 PM BST
Nice by Yates, btw.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:40 PM BST
Again accelerates Yates.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:41 PM BST
Bumo time -- good going -- good boy!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:41 PM BST
Come on Mollema!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:42 PM BST
The chase group is hurting their chances -- Mollema just needs to keep it going!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:42 PM BST
Looking around! Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:42 PM BST
Mollema is going great guns -- love this -- come on my Mollema!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:43 PM BST
Love
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:43 PM BST
Cool
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:44 PM BST
I like the look of him -- he has some reserves...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:46 PM BST
Not working! Laugh
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:46 PM BST
He's home -- Mollema -- is going to win this!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:46 PM BST
Love
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:47 PM BST
No signs of slowing --
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:47 PM BST
Wow -- this is going to be so good for him -- wow!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:48 PM BST
No mistakes, now...
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:48 PM BST
MOLLEMA! Love
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:49 PM BST
I am so happy for this guy, he has been trying after getting a good sniff last year -- so happy!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 4:52 PM BST
Let's remember that TFR made this a much harder race to solve after they refused to get off the front when in pursuit of the break at the start of the day.

...And then this happens!

Sometimes it's just meant to be, as a result, I think we might get another top-class rider at the WT level.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 5:00 PM BST
That race had everything, and was happy that Barguil and Calmejane made it in, although I left a lot of Calmejane out of the market on account of him not getting involved.

Mollema was 33/1 at SP out to 50/1 pre-start, but was matched on here with reasonable liquidity at 100s.

That rights my ship after stage 13 screw-up.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 5:05 PM BST
Not really rights it so much as just wipes it ever happened.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 5:06 PM BST
He's got a unique shape, but he can find his niche now, will be interestng to see where he goes. Good pedigree, too.
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 5:12 PM BST
Special mention for Bling -- he is going top class at this Tour -- to come in 5mins down on climbers after his win yesterday -- am fogetting my previous comments about him being overrated -- he is now RATED to top-class -- no doubt. Word champion material when in this condition. Might need to take another look at Bergen and Salmon Hill, in which case I might put the mining equipment away and reach for a fly rod -- 6.4% average. Mischief
Report bb66 July 16, 2017 5:24 PM BST
Thinking how this stage would have developed with Aru still in yellow?
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 6:09 PM BST
Not really mate -- doesn't pay to solve historical questions, unless they can have some effect on the remaning stages. Are you inferring it does?

I raised the question of how Aru can gain time on Froome when you brought up the ITT matter in terms of it advantaging Froome by about a min, and I didn't disagree, however by not having found a way into that question, I didn't give Aru much more thought afterward, especially when considering how he could -- and did -- lose positioning into stage 15 and lose Yellow.

I thought two races would be fun, but then when it got so fun with Mollema I wished it was only one race. Have to go back to the tape -- all I remember is Froome -- mechanical -- Kwiatkowski like a rock beside him -- work-work-work -- good ride -- job done -- disaster averted -- Bardet at least tried on home roads!
Report SwingingPick July 16, 2017 6:10 PM BST
Laugh
Report Autocue July 16, 2017 8:03 PM BST
Amazing ride by Froome. French crowd booing the yellow jersey as he was clawing it back tells you all you need to know about them. Local boy Bardet only in the hunt because of the Commissaires' lack of transparency when ducking the application of their own rules. Bardet's team had Froome on the ropes but they were impotent when it mattered.
Report marychain1 July 16, 2017 11:01 PM BST
Personally I thought that ride by Froome was highly questionable. Have to be honest and say I can completely understand why he was getting booed. He was riding well above threshold for about 20 minutes - so hard he popped all his domestiques - to chase back on to a Ag2r team going full gas. And then he was able to stay with attacks.

I thought BMC made a right mess of that today. 4 men in the break and although they moved Caruso into the top ten that will be scant consoltation. I'd think they'll be desperate for a stage in the third week. Might be one for Kung on Tuesday?

Brilliant ride from Mollema today.
Report SwingingPick July 17, 2017 4:53 PM BST
BMC must have been smarting by getting beat by Bling on stage 14 when they did so much work for GVA, and hence they threw the proverbial Kithcen Sink at this stage, thinking that greater numbers would improve their chances of getting the win and Caruso was their most likely, obviously.

Stefan Kung was in the breakaway on stage 12 and rode well, he had wanted to get into one on an earlier, I don't recall which one exactly, assume it would have been one of the flatter stages, but was told that he was too strong and the sprint teams didn't allow him to go. That's what they used to say about Spartacus. Laugh
Report marychain1 July 17, 2017 10:15 PM BST
I'll let you do the stage 16 fred SP, but I've scattered a few coins on potential break candidates - Cummings 34/1, Kung 33/1, Van Baarle 66/1, Van Rensburg 150/1 & Senechal 500/1.
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