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SwingingPick
08 Jul 17 05:18
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Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,589 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
The Tour finished atop the Station des Rousses on stage 7 in the 2010 edition when covering some 166kms. There were exactly twice as many categorized climbs on that occasion, and it was FRA rider Sylvan Chavanel who went clear with Rafael Valls from a 5-man breakaway, whilst solo leader Pineau was up ahead of them on the road, hunting KOM points successfully. Chavanel and Valls went past Pineau, and then Chavanel attacked Valls at the foot of the final climb to solo for the victory.

If judging this stage simply by the rating of the categorized climbs then it gets progressively more difficult over the 188km distance. The last of which being the cat.1 climb over the Cote de la Combe de Laisia-Les Molunes, which is some 11.7kms long @ a gradient of 6.4% and with no really steep ramps at 9% or over. Once the climb is negotiated the riders will still have a 12km section of largely undulating road to the finish-line, and I think this will be a heavy burn for the riders involved in going for the win, and therefore I think it might have a semi-classics feel to it, especially if there's a suitable group involved.

On the basis of it coming down to a select peloton group summiting the cat.1, together and in the lead, then I think Dan Martin (16/1 at SP into 12/1) stands out as the clear favourite on account of the somewhat LBL-flavoured finale. However, with 1.) two hot days in the saddle over the past two stages, and 2.) the next stage 9 being much more important for the GC contenders, and 3.) BMC learning from their mistake from the other day of leading the peloton when Porte was not in Yellow, and essentially giving SKY an armchair ride up until the foot of the final climb -- we are far more likely to see a good-sized and talented breakaway group of pirates being permitted to go. I would also add; the breakaway being permitted to fight for stage honours as SKY switch off and give the peloton an easy ride, however I don't recall the last time they did that and so therefore I think it's more likely that they monitor the situation as they keep the breakaway within their sights, at least to some extent, and especially if one of the breakaway riders is the VL on GC on the road.

DEN have had a breakaway rider represented on every stage except stage 4, so I would expect Voeckler to become involved today, however I don't think he can possibly win and 80/1 at SP seems short. Moreover he has come in overnight, now 66/1. I would prefer that they use the promising rookie Calmejane instead, however at 33/1 at SP and presently, he is much too short, also. Given the Chavanel connection to this stage it might very well be the case that both riders find themselves in the break. If that is the case than Calmejane showed on stage 3 how hard he can be, whilst Voeckler might give a bit of his customary performance, and customarily drift back into the peloton.

It is interesting to note that both Wellens (18/1 at SP into 16/1) and Gallopin (22/1, steady) were installed above De Gendt (25/1 into 18/1) on the boards, so clearly De Gendt is not going very well, which supports some of the observations of his riding on stages 3 and 5 when in both breakaways, and whilst he might get into the breakaway nevertheless on this occasion, I cannot hold much confidence in a combatative performance from him to win, and that price is ridiculous when he was available at three times that on stage 5. Moreover, Gallopin's foot is reportedly still the size of a bloody grapefruit after his crash in the opener, so it's just weird that he should be in double digits at all; I would've thought backers would be writing their own ticket for him.
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Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 1:26 PM BST
WTF? Confused
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 1:55 PM BST
Gap coming down to the main peloton/Froome group if the leaders only have 2mins by the final climb than I'm not sure it will be enough. Froome in the 40s might be a nice bet.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 2:26 PM BST
Gap stable at 2:30/51 between Froome and leaders, still think 2mins won't be enough.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 2:35 PM BST
This is precisely the time for SKY to really drop the hammer and pick up the pace wit this really steep section approaching, close the gap down to under 2mins, but they're slowing down for bidons...
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 2:40 PM BST
SKY look to have fluffed this and nearly lost Froome in the process.
Report marychain1 July 8, 2017 2:42 PM BST
I'm on Pinot 33/1 and Gesink 66/1 today. Good to see Gesink getting into the front group. If it comes back together you're Dan Martin pick looks handy.
Report marychain1 July 8, 2017 2:42 PM BST
Pauwels in the front group means the peloton can't relent here.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 2:44 PM BST
The impetus looks to have gone, and they might welcome giving the Yellow away for a day, at least.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 2:45 PM BST
Gesink looks good mate. I've been getting matched on Froome, so want Froome to make it interesting but it's not going to happen, I don't think.
Report sofiakenny July 8, 2017 2:47 PM BST
howdy mary..where you been hiding?
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 2:48 PM BST
If Valgren can somehow not get dropped on the climb, which is unlikely, then he can sting them on the plateau to the finish. Gesink is all animated and when he rides like this you know he has bury-mode in store,
Report marychain1 July 8, 2017 2:50 PM BST
I was really impressed with how Gesink rode Talanksky and Calmejane of his wheel when bridging to the front group. I can see him attacking on the final climb and winning solo. Pauwels is the only one likely to be able to stay with him in the front group. Not sure they have enough of a gap from the GC group though.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 2:55 PM BST
If the gap is under 2mins then it's game on!

Gesink coming back from injury has been dreaming of this moment, he won't want to leave anything out on the course and have regrets later, and he looks nice and trim and I like the way he is riding, too.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 2:56 PM BST
1min has just vanished in the twinkling of an eye -- SKY have woken up again!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:03 PM BST
I cannot believe how easily SKY are bringing this gap down, it looks so deceptive.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:04 PM BST
It's all Kwiatkowski, he makes it look so easy that you think he is doing nothing, but he is absolutely wrecking the gap!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:06 PM BST
On their way to hitting the base of the final climb, I think the peloton looks good, Dan Martin and Froome for mine.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:09 PM BST
Gesink knows he'll have to go soon, I think GVA might animate the break!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:11 PM BST
Nope, not GVA, he looks tired, it was Barguil, Gesink responds nicely.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:12 PM BST
GVA pops!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:14 PM BST
Gesink doing a Hollywood job, looks much better than his facial expressions.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:17 PM BST
Still hard to call between break and peloton -- Gesink could make it easier if he just reaches out with a bury mode effort.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:19 PM BST
Barguil pops!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:20 PM BST
Need Gesink to lift a bit here.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:21 PM BST
Gesink heard me, he makes it back -- good boy!
Report Shrewd_dude July 8, 2017 3:21 PM BST
Backed Porte, Froome and Aru so hope they get caught. Think a few may hang on though. Roche looking good.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:24 PM BST
Gap stable, looking like it might go with the break!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:25 PM BST
Gesink is a diesel, not out of this, I don't think.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:27 PM BST
Come on Gesink...
Report sofiakenny July 8, 2017 3:29 PM BST
great stuff swinger!!Excited
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:30 PM BST
Cheers matey, hoping Gesink just goes over the top and breaks Calmejane, remember that the flat course on plateau really suits the diesel motor of Gesink!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:31 PM BST
Gesink loves a carrot, and a metre-by-metre is bringing back the inexperienced but talented Calmejane!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:34 PM BST
Calmejane finding his second wind, but I think he'll pay for it on the plateau...
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:35 PM BST
Brave effort Calmejane -- come on Gesink!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:36 PM BST
Gesink has stabilised the gap at 11secs and i think he comes into his own on the plateau, but he is looking a bit tired...
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:39 PM BST
Calmejane making a name for himself...
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:39 PM BST
Gesink suffering... Cry
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:40 PM BST
The race will change again on the plateau, let's see what Calmejane has???
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:41 PM BST
Stage 4 Vuelta 2016 comes to mind for Calmejane, and he was in the break on stage 3 here.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:42 PM BST
Calmejane has this now!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:45 PM BST
35secs and full-of-riding for Calmejane.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:46 PM BST
37secs...
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:47 PM BST
Cramps for Calmejane! Shocked
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:49 PM BST
This race has had it all -- amazing race!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:49 PM BST
Absolutely. Amazing. Race.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:52 PM BST
Attacks in the peloton!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:53 PM BST
It's Dan Martin -- who attacks!
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:55 PM BST
Congrats to Calmejane -- he confirms that Vuelta win and makes a name for himself. Describes himself as a breakaway specialist, however I think he can underline that now.
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 3:56 PM BST
Gesink gave it a good go - he was within 50metres at one point, but Calmejane dug deep and found that bit extra, and that's what champions do.
Report sofiakenny July 8, 2017 4:04 PM BST
Unlucky pal..was great fun.Grin
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 4:10 PM BST
No complaints from me matey, wanted Gesink for MC as much as myself, but Calmejane was not a loss for me, thankfully.
Report marychain1 July 8, 2017 4:49 PM BST
Gutted with that tbh. Thought he was going to catch him with about 3km of the climb left. Putting it behind me and already looking at tomorrow. 3 names stand out as contenders for me but think they'll be well on the radar of the bookmakers.
Report marychain1 July 8, 2017 4:49 PM BST
Still I'd take a 66/1 place every day of the Tour...
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 5:23 PM BST
Yes mate, totally, double my best this season when I tipped Kwiatkowski on this forum at 33/1 for MSR, although he did win. Mischief Had a very good classics season actually, x4 wins, x3 thirds, and Sagan for second in MSR, also. Cool Also had Albasini in LFW at 33/1, but Book did not pay on five places. Plain

Big day tomorrow, for sure, very difficult stage.
Report padlock July 8, 2017 5:48 PM BST
Great tipping swingingPick , i backed Calmejane after reading ur opening post this morning on here @ 40 ,thx you know your cycling
Ginna watch highlights as was out allday playing golf Cool
Report SwingingPick July 8, 2017 8:22 PM BST
MC, you know that I don't brag, so I hope that you understand that the above was my attempt to indicate the heavy-lifting I have been doing here in your absence. Grin

Please feel free to get us started for stage 9 with one of your distinctly colourful thread readers of this forum like so much. Love

Cheers padlock, glad you got on mate, and it sounds like you have your priorities sorted; I would enjoy playing golf also, but it's night time in Australia when the races are being run in Europe, and in any case I'd never surrender insights to an overworked t.v. editor who would be more interested in showing parts of the race which have no data for the next stage/s of the race. Watching highlights is like having an ice-cream with a bit of cream melting in drops out of the bottom of the largely-eaten cone. Laugh
Report padlock July 9, 2017 8:35 AM BST
What about stage 9 Mischief
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