Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
SwingingPick
04 Jul 17 08:28
Joined:
Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,587 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
LUX start but the riders soon enter FRA, and cover rolling grounds, with only the one cat.4 climb coming some 37kms from the finish, which surprisingly is 1.9kms long at a gradient of 7.4%. The short rise in the final 5kms is about 2.5% and much less than that in the 1km finale.

The categorisation appears to be a little deceptive on account of the fact that the Mur de Bretagne is 2kms @ 6.9kms, and that is a bloody difficult climb for sprinters being as it is categorised as a cat.3. Nevertheless, this climb is likely to be a staging point for an attack or a counter-attack, or even an opportunity for teams such as BOH and BMC to attack the sprinters' teams.

In 2015 on the Mur, the first sprinter to come in over the line was Kristoff, who finished 5:42 back, 6:12 for the Gorilla. If the sprinters were to tail out on this climb with only half of those kind of losses, and remember there will be some 4% sections in the lead-up which build the lactic acid burn in their big legs, then I am willing to think that the teams might abandon them or they may just put up the white flags of their own volition for being involved in a bunch sprint scenario. Yes, 37kms to-go should be enough to cover some 3mins, however after a tough finish yesterday I am not convinced they will want a hard ride and may fold on the climb, leaving it to the likes of the versatile sprinters such Sagan, Bling and Demare, who looked very good yesterday.

Will come back to this, but am not convinced this is going to be easy for the sprinters.

Good luck to all,
SP
Share |
Pause Switch to Standard View TdF 2017 Stage 4
Show More
Loading...
Report casemoney July 4, 2017 2:03 PM BST
Nice write up SP ..
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 2:54 PM BST
Cheers casemoney, good to hear from you at this time. How are you travelling mate? Hope you are backing a few winners. 

Just in relation to this stage: I am looking at this climb and I am just not convinced the sprinters are going to cope with it. The sprinters teams can wait for them and bring them back into the race, no doubt, however I am not convinced that will be the case. I think BMC and SUN would like another crack at Sagan in the finale, and that essentially means signalling their domestiques to come to the front and ramp-up the speed to really hurt the sprinters and make them crack on the climb.

I'd be definitely more confident if I could find a nice profile of that section, but it seems that a lot of people are asleep for this stage and the data is unavailable, and I just don't have the confidence to pull the trigger on a big position on those three mentioned.

GVK out alone the way he is, more importantly that no one really wanted to join him in the break getting into the breakaway, suggests that a lot of riders on good sensations are going to want to have a crack on the climb, but that won't be enough, I believe we really require a coordinated and combined effort by the versatile sprinters teams to hurt the outright sprinters since they would be capable of forcing the pace for the remaining 37kms, which is a fair distance. I mean, it's enough because we see those types of breakaway distances in the cobbled classics, but you need manpower, and it would help if some of the sprinters just put up the white flag of surrender. I'm not convinced that will happen, but the climb, on paper, is a tough one, I believe.

My main bet is Sagan as I backed him on the slide. He opened at 9/1 on the third line with the Gorilla and the Manx Missile.
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 3:21 PM BST
Here we go, climb coming up...
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 3:23 PM BST
The idiots have put it into the book incorrectly, it's 1.9kms @ 4.7% -- not 7.4%!!!
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 3:52 PM BST
...Never mind -- bunch sprint -- Sagan is still a legitimate contender, the road will be quite narrow and tight, and the drag to the finish will give him a slight advantage, although we've seen the Gorilla win on such a slight gradient to the finish, 2016 stage 5 into Benevento, which admittedly was steeper.
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 4:15 PM BST
Demure in the FRA jersey -- maganifique!
Report Angela Rebecchi July 4, 2017 4:17 PM BST
Sagan just slapped Cavandish into the barriers. Brutal.
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 4:17 PM BST
Another thrilling finish -- the final 3kms were as exciting as you're likely to see anywhere -- chopping and changing. Top ride by Sagan, he could've won that if not for the Manx Missile being an idiot as usual.
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 4:18 PM BST
Sagan did no such thing -- his elbow was used to balance him, the Manx was trying to go through a gap which didn't exist, and he has been a worse offender in the past!
Report Angela Rebecchi July 4, 2017 4:19 PM BST

Jul 4, 2017 -- 4:18PM, SwingingPick wrote:


Sagan did no such thing -- his elbow was used to balance him, the Manx was trying to go through a gap which didn't exist, and he has been a worse offender in the past!


Oh, okay, I was just repeating what the commentator said on the replay.

Report Angela Rebecchi July 4, 2017 4:20 PM BST
Incredible finish to the race. Sagan runner up, so close to bringing your bet in. Whatever happened to Kittel?
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 4:20 PM BST
Very happy for Demare, but Sagan was a 13/1 pop with good liquidity within those final few kms -- extraordinary! I was beginning to doubt myself, but he was all value, and didn't disappoint with a very close go!
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 4:22 PM BST
I've learned not to listen to those idiots, Rebecca.

Kittel was out of position for a very long way, and the narrow roads prevented him from moving up, plus those couple of ramps seemed to bite him and he lost his teammates.
Report casemoney July 4, 2017 4:22 PM BST
Going OK SP I bet Sagan Myself and Kristoff .Kittel's mob got that all wrong ,too far off the Pace ,Looked Like Peter Decked Cav Not sure what Cav was doing He was in Prime Position 200 meters back Plain Hope cav Not too badly Hurt  ,Chris on the Deck Twice already Shocked
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 4:23 PM BST
Sorry, Angela, not Rebecca. Blush
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 4:31 PM BST
Good to hear mate.

Sagan was a 13/1 pop in the final kms, as I said, and I was seriously doubting my understanding, but after such a successful cobbled classics campaign I just held my nerve and kept the bets in-play. Glad I did. Nothing special mind, but pleased it finished the way it did. Will give me more confidence to hopefully dig out a nice price on something else later, hopefully with a full form guide approach. Picking small things IR, but haven't really put a rider up with a proper stake.

Danger is always there in the frantic show which is a bunch sprint. We'll see how Froome pulls up -- should be okay, hopefully.

The Manx has been a great offender in the past in bunch sprints and it seems like he was delaying for too long before going for clear air, and yeah, a gap that wasn't there. At least we know he won't blame Sagan for anything -- just cop it as fast racing!
Report Angela Rebecchi July 4, 2017 4:44 PM BST
Griepel just said Sagan isn't his friend anymore.
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 5:08 PM BST
The Gorilla, despite pernicious moniker, is a real gentleman of the WT, so he can definitely be a bit sensitive on occasion. Don't know what he is going on about if that's the case though, and I haven't seen the post-stage quotes for myself as yet. Clearly, the Gorilla was in the best position of all of them, sitting in behind teammate Rolland's doing all the work for him, and he still managed to drift into and bump Bouhani -- losing his power -- lol -- it was comical! Gorilla is attempting to distract from his very poor ride, I think. Bravo -- Roelandts -- a fantastic ride to lead out the sprint for so long!
Report geoff m July 4, 2017 5:08 PM BST
Rose tinted glasses Swinging. In the words of Jim Royle balance my @rse. Downright blatant elbow to ensure Cav wasnt going thro the gap only the barriers
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 5:12 PM BST
Geoff mate, have a good bloody look at it, there was no gap, and the Manx almost elicits the bump.
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 5:14 PM BST
*Roelandts. Blush
Report geoff m July 4, 2017 5:31 PM BST
So why have Commisars placed Sagan last in his group Swinging. Have they got it wrong as well?
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 5:33 PM BST
Sorry mate -- didn't mean to imply you hadn't looked at the footage of the contact. The tree branches and their leaves are in the way for the overhead shot, but I've now studied it from basically all "official" angles and it is clear that Manx makes contact, Sagan protects himself from that contact, and at that speed people forget it's a way for the rider to protect himself.
Report geoff m July 4, 2017 5:33 PM BST
Placed 115 th on stage
Report geoff m July 4, 2017 5:38 PM BST
Sergeant said that he had spoken with his sprinter André Greipel, who placed 4th on the stage, and the German had told him that Sagan had already irritated his fellow sprinters with his riding in Monday’s intermediate sprint.

“I asked André. He was quite pissed by the attitude of Sagan, making some moves which he shouldn’t make. Yesterday it was the same thing in the intermediate sprint, he gave an elbow to André and he was a little bit pissed yesterday already. Twice in a row is too much,” Sergeant told Eurosport.

“Greipel was saying, ‘He isn’t my friend anymore from now on.’ That was 20 metres past the finish line.”
Report geoff m July 4, 2017 5:38 PM BST
Sergeant said that he had spoken with his sprinter André Greipel, who placed 4th on the stage, and the German had told him that Sagan had already irritated his fellow sprinters with his riding in Monday’s intermediate sprint.

“I asked André. He was quite pissed by the attitude of Sagan, making some moves which he shouldn’t make. Yesterday it was the same thing in the intermediate sprint, he gave an elbow to André and he was a little bit pissed yesterday already. Twice in a row is too much,” Sergeant told Eurosport.

“Greipel was saying, ‘He isn’t my friend anymore from now on.’ That was 20 metres past the finish line.”
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 5:40 PM BST
...behind Kiserlovski and ahead of Lammertink. lol. In my opinion, of course they have got it wrong, but we know the Tour loves a bit of controversy. No one rider is above the rules, and the "biggest thing" in pro cycling is not above them either, but the commissars have forgotten what it is to ride in a bunch sprint at high speeds and what it takes to protect one's line and person. Shocking decision. Terrible stuff. It does support your opinion, so congratulations on that score.

I'm off to bed, it's nearly 3am here.
Report Happybacker July 4, 2017 5:41 PM BST
Got to say sp that Sagan looked way out of line with the elbow no need at all, and seems race judges agree.

Sagan has lost the 80 points gained on the stage plus also 30 second time penalty! obviously the time penalty is of no significance to him, but the points loss is massive to his hopes of winning the green jersey!
Sagan now out to 3/1 3rd fav for points classification!! Certainly makes the green jersey battle very interesting now!
Report bb66 July 4, 2017 5:42 PM BST
Cav has done much worse things in the past, but relegating Sagan to P6 would have been ok, maybe even docking him up to 30 pts, but 50 is way too much. For once appreciate Cav saying that closing the gap by Sagan was no matter to blame him.
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 5:44 PM BST
I mean, let's just play this out...

Who in their right mind, doesn't think that Manx makes some contact with Sagan if Sagan doesn't do anything?

Of course Manx makes contact, and then what -- Sagan goes down, is what, and we've seen the Manx do that on at least two occasions in the past.
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 5:48 PM BST
Everyone is entitled to their opinion and the commissars have clearly spoken in your favour, but it's never such a black-and-white thing, there's never much consistency in them, and the decision is a plain shocking one, and obviously with ramifications for the Green competition as you guys have rightly pointed out.
Report SwingingPick July 4, 2017 5:50 PM BST
Good night, or good evening as the case may be;-)
Report Happybacker July 4, 2017 6:16 PM BST
It seems Sagan has now been disqualifed totally and is out of the order!!
A very big call and maybe a bit harsh but the elbow did look intentional!!
Report Happybacker July 4, 2017 6:17 PM BST
Out of the tour! Not out of the order!!
Report geoff m July 4, 2017 6:18 PM BST
News
By Cycling News  July 04, 2017 5:55pm
Updated: July 04, 2017 5:55pm Race: Tour de France
Peter Sagan disqualified from Tour de France

World champion sent home after causing crash in stage 4 sprint


Stage 3 winner Peter Sagan (Boha-Hansgrohe) (Getty Images)
Peter Sagan (Bora-Hansgrohe) has been disqualified from the 2017 Tour de France. The World Champion was sent home after causing a crash on stage 4 in Vittel. The race jury announced the news at a hastily arranged press conference in the media centre, several hours after the stage had finished.
Report bb66 July 4, 2017 6:26 PM BST
That's madness, measuring that way Cav should have been banned for lifetime for multiple offences!
Report johnnythebull July 4, 2017 6:41 PM BST
when i first saw it en direct i thought dude that elbow was deliberate
then when i saw a few replays  with the toing & froing i thought at the very least he leaned in on Cav
and the elbow(tho' some were saying it's a means of retaining your balance) still looked a bit iffy
would also say that like a few jockeys that try to come thru gaps that really aren't there
thought in real time
Cav you're trying to squeeze thru a miniscule gap there brah
one of these days a sprinter could get killed or maimed or brain damaged in one of these high speed falls
still shocked to find out on le Tour site he had been DQ'd tho'
also of all the bets at the start of the race i thought was more or less nailed on at 2s on
was sagan for le maillot Vert
just shows how dangerous betting is
Report johnnythebull July 4, 2017 7:47 PM BST
https://streamable.com/zfq04

food for thought here

maybe too draconian a decision?tough one
Report bb66 July 4, 2017 9:02 PM BST
I've always been a fan of Sagan and dislike Cav, but I'm not sure you see it the right way. While Cav went for a closing gap and never would hold back and probably would have fallen anyway, Sagan's elbow seems to go out at will bringing Cav down at once touching his handlebars.

Nevertheless this is no reason for DQ given usual punishments.
Report casemoney July 5, 2017 1:33 AM BST
DQ rediculous Elbows Heads the Lot are regular in Sprint Finnishes ,Cav was finnished going for a Stupid gap, Looking at that Replay Cav has gone beyond recall Before the Elbow ,and Looking at his face he Knows it ...

Two of the tours Stars gone a sad Day Sad
Report marychain1 July 8, 2017 5:46 PM BST
By the way - anyone that backed Cav each way (or in a head to head) on this stage and has had their bet settled as a loser should contact customer service.

According to their own rules they should have settled any each way bets as placed and the head to head with Cavendish with a winner.

Their rules on cycling say:

"Where there is a presentation ceremony, markets will be settled on the official result of the relevant governing body at the time of the ceremony, regardless of any subsequent disqualification or amendment to the result"

As he was still in 2nd place at the time of the presentation ceremony, which happened at 4.30, this is how they should have settled it. He was only relegated to 115th position at 5.15 and then only disqualified at 6.00pm (all UK time).
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com

New to Betfair?

You need to open an account before you can add content to the forum.

Opening an account only takes a few minutes.

register now