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SwingingPick
29 Jun 17 17:44
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Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,578 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
Last time Germany held the Grand Depart was in 1987 and it was a 6km Prologue which was won by a Dutchman. Things were different then and Germany was actually called West Germany, there were 25 stages in the race and the first six were held in West Germany. It wasn't till the flat stage 15 that a German actually won a stage, though. Yes, Rolf Golz was a West German. Then when the Tour again visited Germany in 2005, this time for stages 7 and 8, Jan Ullrich effectively won stage 20 since Armstrong cheated. So, Germans win a stage of the Tour when it visits the German country, just not the stages on their actual soil.

It is easily understandible why Tony 'Panzerwagen' Martin is the favourite for the opening stage of this year's Tour. One of the most successful all-time riders in the TT discipline, the German powerhouse is riding on home roads and in front of a crowd with high expectations of a Germany victory. With TdF interest in Germany waning over the years, it can be understood that this might be one way the race organisers have planned to reignite interest in their race amongst the German people -- give them a German stage winner. And for the first time on home soil.

Taking into account Martin's recent Nationals win over a 48km ITT race, one would be ready to order a round of German beer to celebrate the imminent German in Germany stage winner to begin the Tour this year. However, looking closer at Martin's results this season in his pet event, and a different narrative begins to appear, one which suggests there might be value to be found elsewhere, particularly with the MOV entrant, the 30yo ESP rider Jonathan Castroviejo.

Firstly, Tony Martin is a better TT rider than Castroviejo, however this season Castroviejo beat Martin by 4secs in an 18km ITT in the Algarve at the start of the year, and Martin only beat Roglic and Kwiatkowski by 1sec in that race. Martin was then nowhere by his standards in the 14.5km ITT in Paris-Nice which ended on Mt Brouilly. Next, Martin again misfired in the 13.4km ITT in the Belgium Tour when second to Matthias Brandle by 14secs, whilst equalling the time of Wout Van Aert and Sylvain Chavanel. Last start, in the Dauphine, Martin again failed when going off at prohibitive odds over an unsuitably hilly course of 23.5kms, when getting beat by Porte by 12secs, although he did hold down the 2nd-place, comfortably. I remember saying on the Dauphine thread that it was a missed lay opportunity on Martin on that stage, since he was so cheap.

In fact, the only race Martin has won for his new KAT team was the 181km stage 2 in Valencia, when he daredevilled the 6km descent of the final climb, which they had approached twice.
 
The 14km out-and-back, fly-swatter-shaped course of Dusseldorf here, with the majority of the course along the Rhein River, makes the flat and straight road there an advantage for Martin's power-riding characteristic, and I think he should win. Nevertheless, Castroviejo has improved in the last two years in the TT discipline. Moreover, Castroviejo also won his Nationals race in the ITT recently, over what was a 43.1km course, and he did so by over a minute to the next Spaniard -- a dominant performance. 

At 20/1 Castroviejo represents the value in the race. I think Martin should win, since he should be capable of digging down deep in front of a partisan crowd and he does enjoy the big stage, however I think Castroviejo should get onto the podium and in so-doing make both bets successful.

In conclusion; Martin to win and WIN ONLY at 2/1, Castroviejo to shorten on here and podium on an E/W basis at 20/1, which represents sensational value.

Good luck to all,
SP
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Report Cauthenmeister June 30, 2017 7:39 PM BST
If the forecast of rain is correct, this could become a starting time lottery.
Report SwingingPick July 1, 2017 8:01 AM BST
Fastest time wins this race. As CM suggests, there is some weather about. It looks like some wind also, so wind and rain, however the later riders should get the best of the conditions under the current forecast, but that can change, and it can indeed become a lottery.

Tour de France stage 1 time trial start times
#    Rider Name (Country) Team    Start time (CET)
1    Elie Gesbert (Fra) Team Fortuneo - Oscaro    15:15:00    
2    Marco Minnaard (Ned) Wanty - Groupe Gobert    15:16:00    
3    Sonny Colbrelli (Ita) Bahrain-Merida    15:17:00    
4    Nathan Brown (USA) Cannondale-Drapac    15:18:00    
5    Perrig Quemeneur (Fra) Direct Energie    15:19:00    
6    Thomas Leezer (Ned) Team LottoNl-Jumbo    15:20:00    
7    Nacer Bouhanni (Fra) Cofidis, Solutions Credits    15:21:00    
8    Laurens ten Dam (Ned) Team Sunweb    15:22:00    
9    Tim Wellens (Bel) Lotto Soudal    15:23:00    
10    Marco Haller (Aut) Katusha-Alpecin    15:24:00    
11    Rüdiger Selig (Ger) Bora-Hansgrohe    15:25:00    
12    Fabio Sabatini (Ita) Quick-Step Floors    15:26:00    
13    Mark Renshaw (Aus) Dimension Data    15:27:00    
14    Mathew Hayman (Aus) Orica-Scott    15:28:00    
15    Mickael Delage (Fra) FDJ    15:29:00    
16    Kristijan Durasek (Cro) UAE Team Emirates    15:30:00    
17    Andriy Grivko (Ukr) Astana Pro Team    15:31:00    
18    Danilo Wyss (Swi) BMC Racing Team    15:32:00    
19    Koen De Kort (Ned) Trek-Segafredo    15:33:00    
20    Imanol Erviti (Spa) Movistar Team    15:34:00    
21    Alexis Vuillermoz (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale    15:35:00    
22    Luke Rowe (GBr) Team Sky    15:36:00    
23    Florian Vachon (Fra) Team Fortuneo - Oscaro    15:37:00    
24    Pieter Vanspeybrouck (Bel) Wanty - Groupe Gobert    15:38:00    
25    Grega Bole (Slo) Bahrain-Merida    15:39:00    
26    Simon Clarke (Aus) Cannondale-Drapac    15:40:00    
27    Yohann Gene (Fra) Direct Energie    15:41:00    
28    Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) Team LottoNl-Jumbo    15:42:00    
29    Nicolas Edet (Fra) Cofidis, Solutions Credits    15:43:00    
30    Nikias Arndt (Ger) Team Sunweb    15:44:00    
31    Thomas De Gendt (Bel) Lotto Soudal    15:45:00    
32    Maurits Lammertink (Ned) Katusha-Alpecin    15:46:00    
33    Emanuel Buchmann (Ger) Bora-Hansgrohe    15:47:00    
34    Gianluca Brambilla (Ita) Quick-Step Floors    15:48:00    
35    Scott Thwaites (GBr) Dimension Data    15:49:00    
36    Michael Albasini (Swi) Orica-Scott    15:50:00    
37    Olivier Le Gac (Fra) FDJ    15:51:00    
38    Manuele Mori (Ita) UAE Team Emirates    15:52:00    
39    Andrey Zeits (Kaz) Astana Pro Team    15:53:00    
40    Alessandro De Marchi (Ita) BMC Racing Team    15:54:00    
41    Markel Irizar (Spa) Trek-Segafredo    15:55:00    
42    Daniele Bennati (Ita) Movistar Team    15:56:00    
43    Axel Domont (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale    15:57:00    
44    Christian Knees (Ger) Team Sky    15:58:00    
45    Romain Hardy (Fra) Team Fortuneo - Oscaro    15:59:00    
46    Yoann Offredo (Fra) Wanty - Groupe Gobert    16:00:00    
47    Borut Bozic (Slo) Bahrain-Merida    16:01:00    
48    Patrick Bevin (NZl) Cannondale-Drapac    16:02:00    
49    Thomas Boudat (Fra) Direct Energie    16:03:00    
50    Paul Martens (Ger) Team LottoNl-Jumbo    16:04:00    
51    Luis Angel Mate (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits    16:05:00    
52    Roy Curvers (Ned) Team Sunweb    16:06:00    
53    Tiesj Benoot (Bel) Lotto Soudal    16:07:00    
54    Reto Hollenstein (Swi) Katusha-Alpecin    16:08:00    
55    Rafal Majka (Pol) Bora-Hansgrohe    16:09:00    
56    Julien Vermote (Bel) Quick-Step Floors    16:10:00    
57    Serge Pauwels (Bel) Dimension Data    16:11:00    
58    Jens Keukeleire (Bel) Orica-Scott    16:12:00    
59    Thibaut Pinot (Fra) FDJ    16:13:00    
60    Matteo Bono (Ita) UAE Team Emirates    16:14:00    
61    Dario Cataldo (Ita) Astana Pro Team    16:15:00    
62    Michael Schär (Swi) BMC Racing Team    16:16:00    
63    Michael Gogl (Aut) Trek-Segafredo    16:17:00    
64    Carlos Betancur (Col) Movistar Team    16:18:00    
65    Cyril Gautier (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale    16:19:00    
66    Mikel Nieve (Spa) Team Sky    16:20:00    
67    Eduardo Sepulveda (Arg) Team Fortuneo - Oscaro    16:21:00    
68    Andrea Pasqualon (Ita) Wanty - Groupe Gobert    16:22:00    
69    Yukiya Arashiro (Jpn) Bahrain-Merida    16:23:00    
70    Pierre Rolland (Fra) Cannondale-Drapac    16:24:00    
71    Adrien Petit (Fra) Direct Energie    16:25:00    
72    Robert Wagner (Ger) Team LottoNl-Jumbo    16:26:00    
73    Florian Senechal (Fra) Cofidis, Solutions Credits    16:27:00    
74    Albert Timmer (Ned) Team Sunweb    16:28:00    
75    Lars Ytting Bak (Den) Lotto Soudal    16:29:00    
76    Rick Zabel (Ger) Katusha-Alpecin    16:30:00    
77    Peter Sagan (Svk) Bora-Hansgrohe    16:31:00    
78    Matteo Trentin (Ita) Quick-Step Floors    16:32:00    
79    Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg (RSA) Dimension Data    16:33:00    
80    Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Orica-Scott    16:34:00    
81    Jacopo Guarnieri (Ita) FDJ    16:35:00    
82    Darwin Atapuma (Col) UAE Team Emirates    16:36:00    
83    Bakhtiyar Kozhatayev (Kaz) Astana Pro Team    16:37:00    
84    Nicolas Roche (Irl) BMC Racing Team    16:38:00    
85    Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Trek-Segafredo    16:39:00    
86    Jesus Herrada (Spa) Movistar Team    16:40:00    
87    Ben Gastauer (Lux) AG2R La Mondiale    16:41:00    
88    Vasil Kiryienka (Blr) Team Sky    16:42:00    
89    Laurent Pichon (Fra) Team Fortuneo - Oscaro    16:43:00    
90    Frederik Backaert (Bel) Wanty - Groupe Gobert    16:44:00    
91    Javier Moreno (Spa) Bahrain-Merida    16:45:00    
92    Alberto Bettiol (Ita) Cannondale-Drapac    16:46:00    
93    Angelo Tulik (Fra) Direct Energie    16:47:00    
94    Timo Roosen (Ned) Team LottoNl-Jumbo    16:48:00    
95    Julien Simon (Fra) Cofidis, Solutions Credits    16:49:00    
96    Ramon Sinkeldam (Ned) Team Sunweb    16:50:00    
97    Jurgen Roelandts (Bel) Lotto Soudal    16:51:00    
98    Robert Kiserlovski (Cro) Katusha-Alpecin    16:52:00    
99    Jay McCarthy (Aus) Bora-Hansgrohe    16:53:00    
100    Jack Bauer (NZl) Quick-Step Floors    16:54:00    
101    Jaco Venter (RSA) Dimension Data    16:55:00    
102    Damien Howson (Aus) Orica-Scott    16:56:00    
103    Rudy Molard (Fra) FDJ    16:57:00    
104    Marco Marcato (Ita) UAE Team Emirates    16:58:00    
105    Dmitriy Gruzdev (Kaz) Astana Pro Team    16:59:00    
106    Amael Moinard (Fra) BMC Racing Team    17:00:00    
107    John Degenkolb (Ger) Trek-Segafredo    17:01:00    
108    Andrey Amador (CRc) Movistar Team    17:02:00    
109    Jan Bakelants (Bel) AG2R La Mondiale    17:03:00    
110    Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Team Sky    17:04:00    
111    Pierre Luc Perichon (Fra) Team Fortuneo - Oscaro    17:05:00    
112    Dion Smith (NZl) Wanty - Groupe Gobert    17:06:00    
113    Tsgabu Grmay (Eth) Bahrain-Merida    17:07:00    
114    Andrew Talansky (USA) Cannondale-Drapac    17:08:00    
115    Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Direct Energie    17:09:00    
116    Robert Gesink (Ned) Team LottoNl-Jumbo    17:10:00    
117    Cyril Lemoine (Fra) Cofidis, Solutions Credits    17:11:00    
118    Mike Teunissen (Ned) Team Sunweb    17:12:00    
119    Adam James Hansen (Aus) Lotto Soudal    17:13:00    
120    Tiago Machado (Por) Katusha-Alpecin    17:14:00    
121    Pawel Poljanski (Pol) Bora-Hansgrohe    17:15:00    
122    Zdenek Stybar (Cze) Quick-Step Floors    17:16:00    
123    Bernhard Eisel (Aut) Dimension Data    17:17:00    
124    Daryl Impey (RSA) Orica-Scott    17:18:00    
125    Arthur Vichot (Fra) FDJ    17:19:00    
126    Vegard Stake Laengen (Nor) UAE Team Emirates    17:20:00    
127    Michael Valgren Andersen (Den) Astana Pro Team    17:21:00    
128    Damiano Caruso (Ita) BMC Racing Team    17:22:00    
129    Jarlinson Pantano (Col) Trek-Segafredo    17:23:00    
130    Jonathan Castroviejo (Spa) Movistar Team    17:24:00    
131    Mathias Frank (Swi) AG2R La Mondiale    17:25:00    
132    Sergio Henao (Col) Team Sky    17:26:00    
133    Brice Feillu (Fra) Team Fortuneo - Oscaro    17:27:00    
134    Thomas Degand (Bel) Wanty - Groupe Gobert    17:28:00    
135    Ondrej Cink (Cze) Bahrain-Merida    17:29:00    
136    Dylan Van Baarle (Ned) Cannondale-Drapac    17:30:00    
137    Romain Sicard (Fra) Direct Energie    17:31:00    
138    George Bennett (NZl) Team LottoNl-Jumbo    17:32:00    
139    Daniel Navarro (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits    17:33:00    
140    Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Sunweb    17:34:00    
141    Marcel Sieberg (Ger) Lotto Soudal    17:35:00    
142    Nils Politt (Ger) Katusha-Alpecin    17:36:00    
143    Juraj Sagan (Svk) Bora-Hansgrohe    17:37:00    
144    Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Quick-Step Floors    17:38:00    
145    Mark Cavendish (GBr) Dimension Data    17:39:00    
146    Simon Yates (GBr) Orica-Scott    17:40:00    
147    Davide Cimolai (Ita) FDJ    17:41:00    
148    Ben Swift (GBr) UAE Team Emirates    17:42:00    
149    Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team    17:43:00    
150    Greg Van Avermaet (Bel) BMC Racing Team    17:44:00    
151    Fabio Felline (Ita) Trek-Segafredo    17:45:00    
152    Jasha Sütterlin (Ger) Movistar Team    17:46:00    
153    Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale    17:47:00    
154    Geraint Thomas (GBr) Team Sky    17:48:00    
155    Maxime Bouet (Fra) Team Fortuneo - Oscaro    17:49:00    
156    Guillaume Van Keirsbulck (Bel) Wanty - Groupe Gobert    17:50:00    
157    Janez Brajkovic (Slo) Bahrain-Merida    17:51:00    
158    Rigoberto Uran (Col) Cannondale-Drapac    17:52:00    
159    Lilian Calmejane (Fra) Direct Energie    17:53:00    
160    Jos Van Emden (Ned) Team LottoNl-Jumbo    17:54:00    
161    Dimitri Claeys (Bel) Cofidis, Solutions Credits    17:55:00    
162    Simon Geschke (Ger) Team Sunweb    17:56:00    
163    Tony Gallopin (Fra) Lotto Soudal    17:57:00    
164    Alexander Kristoff (Nor) Katusha-Alpecin    17:58:00    
165    Marcus Burghardt (Ger) Bora-Hansgrohe    17:59:00    
166    Daniel Martin (Irl) Quick-Step Floors    18:00:00    
167    Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Dimension Data    18:01:00    
168    Esteban Chaves (Col) Orica-Scott    18:02:00    
169    Ignatas Konovalovas (Ltu) FDJ    18:03:00    
170    Diego Ulissi (Ita) UAE Team Emirates    18:04:00    
171    Alexey Lutsenko (Kaz) Astana Pro Team    18:05:00    
172    Richie Porte (Aus) BMC Racing Team    18:06:00    
173    Bauke Mollema (Ned) Trek-Segafredo    18:07:00    
174    Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team    18:08:00    
175    Oliver Naesen (Bel) AG2R La Mondiale    18:09:00    
176    Mikel Landa (Spa) Team Sky    18:10:00    
177    Daniel McLay (GBr) Team Fortuneo - Oscaro    18:11:00    
178    Guillaume Martin (Fra) Wanty - Groupe Gobert    18:12:00    
179    Jon Izaguirre (Spa) Bahrain-Merida    18:13:00    
180    Taylor Phinney (USA) Cannondale-Drapac    18:14:00    
181    Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Direct Energie    18:15:00    
182    Primoz Roglic (Slo) Team LottoNl-Jumbo    18:16:00    
183    Christophe Laporte (Fra) Cofidis, Solutions Credits    18:17:00    
184    Michael Matthews (Aus) Team Sunweb    18:18:00    
185    André Greipel (Ger) Lotto Soudal    18:19:00    
186    Tony Martin (Ger) Katusha-Alpecin    18:20:00    
187    Maciej Bodnar (Pol) Bora-Hansgrohe    18:21:00    
188    Marcel Kittel (Ger) Quick-Step Floors    18:22:00    
189    Stephen Cummings (GBr) Dimension Data    18:23:00    
190    Luke Durbridge (Aus) Orica-Scott    18:24:00    
191    Arnaud Demare (Fra) FDJ    18:25:00    
192    Louis Meintjes (RSA) UAE Team Emirates    18:26:00    
193    Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team    18:27:00    
194    Stefan Küng (Swi) BMC Racing Team    18:28:00    
195    Alberto Contador (Spa) Trek-Segafredo    18:29:00    
196    Nairo Quintana (Col) Movistar Team    18:30:00    
197    Pierre Latour (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale    18:31:00    
198    Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky    18:32:00
Report SwingingPick July 1, 2017 4:47 PM BST
Nice to have seen Castroviejo ride in the European TT Champion jersey, however it would have been nicer if it he made it look close. Seemed to have been going fast, but must have been leaking time in the wet conditions and looked hurt in the end.

Looking for the Panzerwagen to win for the Germans, now. With Kiryienka holding court, it does look better for Martin in terms of it being a power course. Rain having an influence with more than a few slides -- wonder if the GC men will go hard or ease off a little.
Report SwingingPick July 1, 2017 5:33 PM BST
Valverde in hospital...
Report SwingingPick July 1, 2017 5:39 PM BST
Tony Martin was on time coming into the strongest part of the course for him, and died toward the line. Not the way I would have liked to start the Tour, not a loss, but not exactly a win. Sad
Report SwingingPick July 1, 2017 5:54 PM BST
G gets it. I am completely surprised by that, however his Giro TT ride when 2nd to Dumoulin has held up really well. Some landed him.
Report SwingingPick July 1, 2017 6:01 PM BST
40/1 at SP, higher on here but for small amounts.
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