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SwingingPick
02 May 17 19:38
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Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 1,224 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
Don't really have the time to put up a big thread for this, although am hoping to be involved in the GC and stage winner markets.

So, thought we might kick it around and see what develops. Haven't looked into it with very much detail as yet, though.

Opening thoughts are as follows: I don't think Nibali is out of this, even though people are questioning his form, and actually his entire season. Quintana is the deserving short-priced favourite, no doubt about it, and he is going for the Double with a start in the TdF also, which means it could be a Triple with the Vuelta if he is on course with the previous two, who knows. I wouldn't mind 12/1 for the Double in actual fact, so might fire off an email to the local Book about it, however I suspect it'd be more like 8/1 with them.

There might be a couple of others who might have a good short if they can get going, early. Of the group: Kruijswijk, Landa, Dumoulin, Zakarin, TJVG -- probably Dumoulin can really show something, he seems to have shifted toward the GC in a GT this season, and he will enjoy the three weeks in terms of an improving ride.

Anyway, will look at it closer as it approaches in the next few days.
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Report sixtwosix May 25, 2017 9:15 PM BST
At least Quintana made an attempt a long way out to try something different......but after that it was the usual token efforts for 200 metres and not a cat in hell's chance of anybody making significant ground.

How the TV can say Dumoulin in not a climber when grand tour winners Nibali and Quntana can only drop him when he goes to the toilet !
Report Cauthenmeister May 25, 2017 9:52 PM BST
TJVG too good a rider not to win races. Agree with SP that he has lacked confidence, and he isn't going to be a serious GC contender. Hopefully he can find some direction for the rest of his career now.
Quintana and Nibali now must be hoping that three weeks of racing will finally crack Dumoulin because he looked stronger than them on the last climb. They have winning form over the distance, he doesn't yet.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 9:59 AM BST
Stage: 19 15km final climb into Piancavello likely to be the key climb and staging ground for another fight between the principals. Nibali is not giving up, Quintana is under pressure, Dumoulin is facing (and so far easily passing) a stiff test to his GT GC aspirations, and Pinot wants a stage victory. Quintana showed he is not fearful to try something early, he went 50 kms out yesterday for the first attempt, however the nature of this stage suggests that the final climb will be where the race will be held for the GC men, and that climb is 15.5 kms long.

...And it is here where I think Quintana will launch another attack, especially in the first half of the climb where he is suited by the steepness, because Dumoulin should easily handle the gradients thereafter, and in fact find suitable to launch his own attacks, and so even if Quintana opens a gap there, Dumoulin has so far shown he can limit losses.

Breakaway a very high chance of making it though, I think. The peloton looks quite weak, for instance that dominance we witnessed from MOV last week seems to have fizzled-out for the most part and they are trying the tactic of forward satellites for Quintana, SUN don't want a hard ride for Dumoulin so they won't push the pace, ORS can't do their recent pace-making forever, and so if the breakaway composition is right and they gain 3 mins by the final climb, I would favour the break. Landa laughably short, though. Will assess the situation IR.
Report Badsworth May 26, 2017 12:56 PM BST
It's all kicking off, GC teams attacking when Dumoulin returning to the back of the peleton from a natural break. Looks like the Dutch riders against the rest.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 12:59 PM BST
I cannot believe what we are seeing here...
Report bb66 May 26, 2017 12:59 PM BST
if that's true they used a natural break again, it looks ver unsportmanlikeSad
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:07 PM BST
The Dutch Express versus the Nibali/Quintana Alliance, and there's' a big break out there, too. What a stage!
Report Badsworth May 26, 2017 1:09 PM BST
Now saying there was a split on a descent & Dumoulin was caught out.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:11 PM BST
The source of that is legitimate, so likely to be the case.
Report bb66 May 26, 2017 1:25 PM BST
gap closed
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:28 PM BST
A break to form on the descent and consolidate a gap at the bottom, both GC groups to slow things down, break to build a nice gap and win?
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:30 PM BST
Break forms on the ascent as the rejoined peloton sits up, a bit.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:32 PM BST
I was just wondering where Quintana was, couldn't see him in the peloton, he had gone back to the TC.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:33 PM BST
Peloton not really slowing, but the break looks quality.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:35 PM BST
Break: Rolland, LL Sanchez, Rui Costa, S Henao.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:36 PM BST
...plus a couple of others, was mentioning the quality riders.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:37 PM BST
Why is the peloton still riding, QST are being daft.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:40 PM BST
If the break are given a bit of ground by the super-reduced peloton, they'll come home, I believe.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:43 PM BST
Both groups will fry up to the final climb, and hopefully the peloton will sit up after such a stiff start.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:50 PM BST
See how the break are combining once at the bottom, looks like it might be 6 (in the break) versus one QST rider (on front of peloton). The break so far look comfortable together, and the quality outweighs.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 1:57 PM BST
Break combining nicely, as expected, Shalunov trying to impress, also. Peloton sat up once at the bottom, and that sparked another break to form. Bigger, Landa involved, again.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 2:30 PM BST
Two breaks come together and it's there's, I believe, they have 7mins and will have at least 3mins by final climb.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 2:44 PM BST
break home as expected.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 2:51 PM BST
Some good Spaniards to choose from, but I cannot consider Landa after his tactically-deficient efforts so far.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 3:19 PM BST
If Sanchez can keep his gap on this early part which doesn't him as is too steep, he should be capable of holding on the milder gradients later.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 3:19 PM BST
*suit
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 3:20 PM BST
Rui Costa looks to be struggling for mine.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 3:26 PM BST
Rui Costa attacks and suddenly looks like he'll open a gap. Lol.
Report monarch May 26, 2017 3:35 PM BST
Had Sanchez backed... thought i was looking good
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 3:40 PM BST
are you watching, monarch?
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 3:43 PM BST
Landa a loss for me, first for the race.
Report monarch May 26, 2017 3:43 PM BST
Yep. But only the last 40 mins or so.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 3:46 PM BST
Landa romping home, just thought he was going to do something stupid again, but he is clearly the strongest and has held his condition.
Report monarch May 26, 2017 3:47 PM BST
Back to what i said yesterday. Can't begrudge him a stage win
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 3:52 PM BST
No, definitely not, but the value was never there for him.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 3:57 PM BST
Dumoulin looks to be limiting his losses.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 3:59 PM BST
Landa wins. Cry
Report bb66 May 26, 2017 4:59 PM BST
imagine how close this Giro would have been without the fall of Thomas and LandaCry
Report Badsworth May 26, 2017 5:39 PM BST
Like SP I laid Landa. Sad
Kelderman was also taken out by the police motorbike, he may have been help to Dumoulin in the mountains.
Report SwingingPick May 26, 2017 5:51 PM BST
I think Quintana requires a minimum of 22 secs on Dumoulin on tomorrow's stage. That will only give Quintana a mere 60 secs lead into the final ITT. However, since Quintana doesn't look very strong, I think he requires more like 1:40 to 2:00 minutes lead, coming out of tomorrow. Even if he gains a minute, that gives him a 1:38 lead. I believe that Dumoulin going hard in the ITT can pull that out, without even needing Quintana to have a bad day as he had in the earlier ITT. However, if Quintana does experience a bad day and Dumoulin goes ordinarily, it'll be an extra minute for Dumoulin against Quintana like earlier, and he wins the Giro by a minute, I believe.

As previously stated, Nibali is still in this, but the question comes back to Dumoulin. Will he drift off the back of tomorrow's peloton, like he did today? Much of why he struggled today was because of having to chase back on for a long way, which cost his legs, which he has said he didn't even have at the start of the race. He did maintain his losses on the final climb and in total he lost 1:09. He can again be put into difficulty tomorrow since the Monte Grappa looms early, and there is a lot of riding and the climb to Foza remaining. The descent will allow him some rest and recuperation and if MOV don't begin to inflict some damage on him on Grappa than his prospects improve.

There is a school of thought that Dumoulin's wheels are looking to come off and psychologically the Vuelta is coming back to haunt him. He did look tired today, but there is no way he cracked, I simply cannot agree with such an observation. He was just tired, just didn't have the legs, but limited losses and again comes back to fight another day. Is it getting too much for him, though? Yes, it might be getting too much for Dumoulin, but he will be hoping that MOV don't strike out early on the Grappa, and even if they do, he just has to repeat his limiting losses ride of today on the climb to Foza. Grappa is not an overly tough climb, and he does get a long descent.

On the other hand, if he is given a tough climb on the Grappa, the final climb is tough-enough to crack him, if he again has poor legs. If he cracks he is out, a broken GC GT aspirant, perhaps.

In conclusion, and taking into account that I have bigger green on Dumoulin than on Nibali and Quintana (Pinot is a loss): I still think we are seeing a developing Dumoulin, who is showing us that he can limit losses and stay in the GC race, like never before. Unless he panics or more than two factors combine to conspire against him tomorrow, such as poor legs and a tough ride on the Grappa by MOV, he should lose no more than another minute on the final climb which might be a little harder than today, but is similar in distance and if Quintana leaves his attack late, he won't gain enough.

+1:38 is good for Dumoulin on Quintana going into the ITT, I believe. Nibali and Pinot are different narratives, and since this race is all about Dumoulin, he is who I am concentrating on, but those two are still in it, particularly Nibali.

Finally, Dumoulin to maybe lose contact if MOV ramp things up toward the top of the Grappa, but rejoin on the descent and keep his legs for the final climb in order to limit losses by losing no more than a minute and being 1:38 going into the ITT.

The ultimate question being asked of Dumoulin is: Who is Dumoulin? Is he a fighter with a big heart, or a man previously psychologically-scarred by the Vuelta? After the stage today when surrounded by a crowd of reporters, whilst on the rollers and answering questions, he still looked and sounded confident to me, but his trash-talking before today's stage is not the way he should be approaching his racing, much better to show he has the heart and courage to fight like a lion, and secure his place as a worthy GT contender.
Report Cauthenmeister May 27, 2017 12:45 PM BST
Hot weather not good news for Pinot.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 27, 2017 1:26 PM BST
Looking forward to a great contest today

Hope Dumoulin holds on, toilet stops withstanding

Laugh
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 1:45 PM BST
Trust KAT to ally with MOV...
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 2:15 PM BST
Dumoulin getting a hard ride on the Grappa because of KAT.
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 2:31 PM BST
Don't expect a Nibali attack on the descent, he doesn't have the condition to go long range.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 27, 2017 2:32 PM BST
Dumolin looking COMFORTABLE

Wink
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 2:34 PM BST
Dumoulin might have been stretched a little further on the Grappa, but Zakarin and Quintana didn't press the issue, and Dumoulin can receive a pass mark. So far everything suggests that he is going to lose about a minute on the final climb.
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:32 PM BST
What a race!
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:37 PM BST
Nibali and Quintana cannot bury Dumoulin, the Dutchman just refuses to crack.
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:39 PM BST
Dumoulin winning the Giro by limiting losses and fighting like a lion.
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:41 PM BST
Jungels came through at an important moment for Dumoulin. Good boy!
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:44 PM BST
Dumoulin looking like he is close to empty, the top of the climb cannot come soon enough.
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:45 PM BST
Jungels still helping. Good boy!
Report layingdoesntwork May 27, 2017 3:45 PM BST
he wont lose too much now, only a KM left or so, should be his giro now
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 27, 2017 3:45 PM BST
sPELL BINDING RACE

come on

D U M O L I N

Wink
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:48 PM BST
Jungels needs to work again.
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:50 PM BST
Jungels comes through over the top. Good boy!
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:53 PM BST
Nobody else working!
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:56 PM BST
The lead group are looking at each other because they're near empty, only Quintana and Pozzovivo look strong.
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 3:59 PM BST
Good boy!
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 4:02 PM BST
Nibali stage win...
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 4:03 PM BST
5s!? Nibali. Top price.
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 4:06 PM BST
Pinot. Wins.
Report the swede May 27, 2017 4:09 PM BST
betfair suspend with 1 km left...
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 27, 2017 4:14 PM BST
Well if Dumolin losses by

5 secs,he would be the MORAL

Winner

Considering the toilet tactics of Quintan
And Dumolin helped Quintan earlier

Wink
Report dom888 May 27, 2017 4:20 PM BST
why is doumulin 1.33
38 seconds 29 km that's a walk in the park for him
Report dom888 May 27, 2017 4:22 PM BST
53 seconds but that's not enough at all
Report SwingingPick May 27, 2017 5:06 PM BST
Very good ride from Dumoulin, he will have to be very happy with his performance to again limit losses, and give himself every opportunity to win this Giro in the ITT tomorrow. Jungles was a major help to Dumoulin today, so a very good ride from the young LUX champion, also.

Apart from a mechanical failure on course tomorrow for Dumoulin, and it would have to be an exceptional one, he is going to win this race, comfortably. The course is made to order, and he confirmed just today how good he is on a slight downhill when he was seen bringing himself and his group back into sight of the leaders on that slight downhill section close to the finish. Tomorrow, it's nearly all slight downhill, and once he gets the motor turning and begins to feel the speed he is generating, I would expect him to put significant time into all his rivals.

As I stated earlier, I think Quintana required a minimum 22 secs on today's stage and he only got 15 secs, which puts him at 53 secs ahead of Dumoulin. This gap is nowhere near what Quintana requires on a course like this. Dumoulin should easily have 53 secs over Quintana, and if he is on good sensations and Quintana is solid, he will beat him by 1:40 or more, and therefore win the Giro by some 47-63 secs. Daylight if Quintana is knocking up.
Report sixtwosix May 27, 2017 5:22 PM BST
Quintana could finish off the podium tomorrow , Dumoulin , Nibal and Pinot could all sail by him .He is nothing like aggressive enough in the climbs to make up for his poor time trialling and will see the result tomorrow evening.
Report johnnythebull May 27, 2017 6:00 PM BST
don't think he's the sharpest knife in the drawer
have seen this m.o. in the Tour
don't like having 2 ITTs in a GT
skewed too much for those who excel at it
as opposed to a climber/all rounder
despite that fair play to Doumoulin
and Thibot is deserving of a podium place
the way he's ridden these last 2 days
Report sixtwosix May 27, 2017 8:11 PM BST
Wonder if any rider has started the last stage in 4th place and been favourite to win ....I imagine not.
Report bigH May 27, 2017 8:57 PM BST
Betstars still offering 1.20 on Jungels to win young rider

barring a mechanical, that is a gift
Report bigH May 27, 2017 9:43 PM BST
now 1.08
Report BIG CAT LEON LETT May 28, 2017 12:16 AM BST
c'mon tom.

good pick SP in post originale
Report bb66 May 28, 2017 8:49 AM BST
My forecast: Tom wins (bar a puncture or other problems) by about 30", 2nd to 4 th within seconds, I put Nibali ahead of Quintana and Pinot, though the French is still somewhat of an unknown quantity. If Zakarin had shown his TT ability from 2015 in this Giro, he would be in the mix too.
Thomas could have won this without the Blockhaus desaster for SKY with the help of Landa.
Report bb66 May 28, 2017 8:55 AM BST
and of course Jungels winning the White Jersey
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 2:26 PM BST
Course looks fast -- cannot perceive any potential changing conditions, and the GC riders will all start around the same, anyway. Interesting to note how different this race might have been if not for the "bog incident". It is what it is, and it is beautifully staged.

Cheers BCLL, very nice of you to say. In all honesty, and as I inferred in the form-guide approach, I thought this would be a procession for Quintana. But Quintana has proved that he has gone a little backwards with his climbing. Yes, he attacked on several occasions, which was more than he has done in the past when that expectation existed in his races to attack and he always left it too late. Not sure I can put my finger on it as yet, as to the problem with him, but evidently his TdF ambitions are not as rosy as his confidence was prior coming to Italy.

Whilst tipped onto the podium, I wasn't entirely confident that Dumoulin could win, simply because he had promise but that promise was undeveloped. That today should end, the promise becomes developed, the potential becomes confirmed. Dumoulin should become a genuine GT contender, today.
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 3:47 PM BST
Here we go...
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 3:59 PM BST
Would really enjoy watching Dumoulin win this stage, actually. Looks primed for it, going only two secs slower than VED.
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:08 PM BST
Good time graphics for the rivals by the host broadcaster.
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:12 PM BST
Jungels does in fact get his White jersey, an important stepping stone for him, and the way he rode yesterday was quite impressive, also.
Report layingdoesntwork May 28, 2017 4:15 PM BST
Shame Time trials allow the weak cyclists to win a grand tour
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:19 PM BST
Laugh
Report dom888 May 28, 2017 4:26 PM BST
Was there different wind conditions because doumulin "only" second
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:27 PM BST
Haven't observed that, sorry.
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:30 PM BST
Love how close the crowd have been permitted to get to the action.
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:32 PM BST
No worries. Dumoulin does the business. GT champion. We have a legitimate GT contender.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 28, 2017 4:32 PM BST
Tom the
#
WINNER


yEHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Grin
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:36 PM BST
Fair call by bb66, ending up being +31secs, I thought it'd be at least 47 secs.
Report dom888 May 28, 2017 4:38 PM BST
for me quintana was under performing in the mountains.
quintana at his best would have easily won
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:42 PM BST
Why though? He had a strong team devoted to him, a good prep, and loads of natural talent?
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:43 PM BST
It's strange that Quintana would choose now to underperform, don't you think?
Report dom888 May 28, 2017 4:45 PM BST
I mean he attacked and riders like reichenbach could close the gap
That's not quintana apt his  best or the former he had last year's tour de france
Report dom888 May 28, 2017 4:47 PM BST
I am swiss maybe I misinterpreted the word underperform
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:50 PM BST
I guess what I'm saying is that unless we can work out why that was, why he under-performed, we will not understand what he needs to do to get back to the Quintana we seen ride so impressively, previously.
Report bb66 May 28, 2017 4:53 PM BST
Nibali was 10" too slowSad

Will be interesting to see if Quintana's preparation works out for the Tour at least, being in better shape then, but I doubt it.
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 4:55 PM BST
Good podium, in the end.
Report SwingingPick May 28, 2017 5:00 PM BST
Big questions surrounding Quintana, I agree bb.
No way is Froome worried about him in the TdF, after seeing this capitulation.
Report sixtwosix May 28, 2017 5:01 PM BST
Quintana did well to hold Nibali off .
However the best man won , but for the shenanigans and very poor sportsmanship by the other  leading contenders Dumoulin would have won easing up.
Quintana looks like he peaked early and does not appear as good as was when first hitting the headlines.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! May 28, 2017 5:04 PM BST
The trophy looks like it was designed by
Damien HURST


Laugh
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