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VardonVoo.
17 Feb 19 18:40
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Date Joined: 21 Dec 01
| Topic/replies: 4,285 | Blogger: VardonVoo.'s blog
This is a thread to keep track of instances in cricket matches where 1.01 was either fully or half-gubbed (i.e. traded at evens), plus times when the odds recovered to a useful level, say 1.2 upwards.

For Test and 1st Class matches we should also include outcomes that traded at 100+ (for more than a token amount) then came in below, say, 6s,

In addition let's keep a track of matches that flip-flopped one or more times having traded significantly away from evens between flips.

Once we have enough data, plus a count of how many BF markets there were for that format, or perhaps by tournament, we might gain some useful insights.

Just detail of the matches plus any comments in the same post - let's not lose the actual numbers amongst a load of chit-chat.
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Report detraveller February 27, 2019 9:54 PM GMT

Feb 26, 2019 -- 10:54AM, VardonVoo. wrote:


So that Windies v Eng game was a CMM "Yes" 1.02 gubbing, wasn't it? Also Victoria 1.01 vs Queensland (4-day game) got turned over. Got a decent piece of that myself, for a change.


Yes the CMM was a definite gubbing. I saw 1.05 when they said there was a delayed start.

Report VardonVoo. March 5, 2019 10:12 PM GMT
Afghanistan v Ireland 3rd ODI today (in India).

I'm sure I saw the Afghans trade as low as 1.04. Not sure how many flip-flops there were but it might have been back 'n' forth a bit befre Ireland won.

What's been happening with the PSL, anyone?
Report peckerdunne March 7, 2019 7:20 PM GMT
Just now Cobra 1.12 in first innings

Lions chase it back to 1.12 second innings

2 balls remaining it's evens the pair

Market collapses Cobra win

4 required off last ball, no dice.
Report peckerdunne March 7, 2019 7:26 PM GMT
Poor Pretorius died on the last ball on 99 jeez
Report VardonVoo. March 8, 2019 7:26 PM GMT
Momentum One-Day Cup - Titans v Warriors just multi-flipped having been Titans 1.08 then above evens, down to 1.5 then up to 4.5, down to 1.5, up to 3 down below evens, up to 500, then they only went on to win didn't they!!

That's another turnover involving the The Titans in this tourney.
Report VardonVoo. March 8, 2019 7:33 PM GMT
Let me emphasise that - 8 sizeable flips across evens and the winner had traded as high as 500 for £20 each side (£100 each side above 200).

Sadly for me I didn't bet this one! Hopefully at least one of you lot got a piece.
Report peckerdunne March 8, 2019 10:00 PM GMT
looks like i am locked out of here now also..........

i am weary as fcuk with this shi t.
Report the whizz kids March 9, 2019 8:28 AM GMT
India Girls, 3rd t20, over 1 million done at 1.04 and lower, 350k done at 1.01. I was on the wrong end of the gubbingCryCry
Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2019 3:50 PM GMT
SA vs SL 3rd ODI CMM Yes 1.02 to No 1.08 currently hovering around evens.
Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2019 4:02 PM GMT
India vs Aus 4th ODI India 1.05 gubbed.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 10, 2019 6:01 PM GMT
£18 matched at 1000 Karachi Kings, and £116,000 matched at 1.01 Quetta Gladiators.

Extreme gubbage.
Report peckerdunne March 10, 2019 6:01 PM GMT
£18 matched at 1000 Karachi.
Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2019 6:02 PM GMT
Karachi Kings vs Quetta Gladiators

In the final over with 5 needed off 6 balls a boundary was intercepted and Karachi briefly traded at 1,000 then traded below 4s after two Quetta wickets fell in two balls. Next thing I see is Karachi below 1.5 as another wicket falls on the fifth ball, then finally below 1.3 with 3 runs neded off the last ball - they only scored a single. The Gladiators ought not be glad about losing that one.

Some poor soul is out by £9,000 if he didn't trade out.
Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2019 6:04 PM GMT
Anyone get a piece of that? I actually cancelled a resting 1.01 lay cos I didn't want to get hooverd by a boundary.
It's aways the bet you miss that flips.
Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2019 9:10 PM GMT
West Indies v England 3rd T20 first innings runs

WI 75+  1.01
WI 80+  1.01
WI 85+  1.01
WI 90+  1.02
WI 95+  1.03
WI 100+ 1.04
All traded in reasonable size and then gubbed.

I think another one of these matches had a low score only a few days ago.
WI probably don't care cos they won the far more important Test series.
They got the HGV licence but failed the cycling proficiency test.
Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2019 10:20 PM GMT
IMPORTED! Wink
Report wisewords March 11, 2019 6:17 PM GMT
great thread, keep up the good work.
Report VardonVoo. March 13, 2019 6:17 PM GMT
I hope we can keep this thread updated often enough to gathere sufficient data to be useful to every one.

Quetta Gladiators today traded at 1.03 and rebounded to 1.5, but they did actualy manage to hold on to their advantage this time. I was half expecting a load of wides and free hits in the last few balls but I guess that would have been too obvious so soon after the other day's performance.

If they start losing suspiciously again I think we should dub them "The Quitta Gladiators"
Report VardonVoo. March 15, 2019 3:01 PM GMT
UAE v USA CMM "No". Don't know how low "Yes" traded but the match only got to the fourth over of the D-L reduced second innings of 13 overs. First innings was the full 20 overs, I think.
Report drever March 16, 2019 7:08 PM GMT
inappropriate forum i know but needs mentioning 6 nations rugby England v Scotland England leading 31-0,in first half finished 38-38
£70 matched draw @ 1000 £153k matched England @ 1.01
Report peckerdunne March 16, 2019 7:14 PM GMT
LaughCool
Report VardonVoo. March 18, 2019 1:30 PM GMT

Mar 16, 2019 -- 8:08PM, drever wrote:


inappropriate forum i know but needs mentioning 6 nations rugby England v Scotland England leading 31-0,in first half finished 38-38£70 matched draw @ 1000 £153k matched England @ 1.01


HMoF!

That's two reported gubbings of 1,000 on this thread already in less than a month.

And all I can report is a mere 1.06 turnover.

UAE vs USA UAE traded below 1.1 in size down to as low as 1.06 for £70 or so.

Report VardonVoo. March 18, 2019 5:04 PM GMT
Afghan vs Ireland - after Ireland had a shockingly bad start a last-wicket stand brought them back into the game. The Hounds then got comfortably ahead, Ireland later caught up but only managed to put on a modest lead, which got knocked off with ease.

At one point the Afghans had shortened to about 1.04 only to come out to above 3s before coming back down again and going on to win. So that counts as a "semi-gub" for anyone that would have cashed out a short-odds lay at evens.
Report VardonVoo. March 19, 2019 1:35 PM GMT
Lanchashire vs USA in Dubai - Lancashire traded in size down to 1.06 quite early on then went as high as 3.0 before coming back down. At time of writing they'd been below 1.2 again. Can't find a score anywhere though.

Looked to be a semi-gub when I went out but I've come back to find USA now at 1.01 so it got fully gubbed after the above evens then sub 1.2 flip-back.
Report VardonVoo. March 19, 2019 2:54 PM GMT
The Lancs 1.06 got fully gubbed, I meant.
Report Cardinal Scott March 19, 2019 3:38 PM GMT
I saw this game and was contemplating trading it, probably would have been on Lancs
Report Cardinal Scott March 19, 2019 8:05 PM GMT
2 million+ matched at SA 1.01 in T20 v Lanka. Flippage occurred and ultimately game was a thai
Report Cardinal Scott March 19, 2019 8:05 PM GMT

Mar 19, 2019 -- 9:05PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


2 million+ matched at SA 1.01 in T20 v Lanka. Flippage occurred and ultimately game was a thai


Followed by a super over which SA won

Report VardonVoo. March 20, 2019 7:24 PM GMT
That must really hurt! All that green voided!  I guess that's when you go for the (Thai Green) "Curry" bet as insurance, if you remember to in the heat of the moment.


An additional point to note - the 1.01 gubbing here would have also resulted in a low odds gubbing of Thai "No".
Report VardonVoo. March 23, 2019 4:03 PM GMT
IPL 1st match Chennai vs RCB @ MA Chidambaram Stadium (average 1st innings score here is 163)

1st Innings Runs  (RCB)
90   1.01   £8,141
95   1.01   £337
100  1.01   £1,031
105  1.01   £200
110  1.03   £3663
120  1.02   £873
130  1.04   £769

1.01s were matched at other lower levels down to 65 runs.
Report VardonVoo. March 23, 2019 4:04 PM GMT
RCB only managed 70, by the way.
Report VardonVoo. March 24, 2019 2:22 PM GMT
IPL Match #2 KKR v Sunrisers   Sun 1.1 got overturned after a broken-floodlights delay.
Report VardonVoo. March 25, 2019 6:12 PM GMT
IPL Match #4 Rajasthan Royals vs King's XI Punjab

5 significant flips across evens, 7 if you include what looks like a brief spike
on the graph - I think it was when RR scored a six by followed by a catch.

RR really looked like chasing this but caved in quite spectacularly at the death.

Noteworthy dodginess  - a no-ball free hit gift was fluffed then another donation was made immediately on the next ball.
Report Charlie March 25, 2019 8:38 PM GMT

Mar 24, 2019 -- 3:22PM, VardonVoo. wrote:


IPL Match #2 KKR v Sunrisers

Report Charlie March 25, 2019 8:43 PM GMT
I hate it when it does that. I'll try again.

I think you need to record more info for the thread to be useful. Such as who was batting and bowling, how many did the chasing team need (if that's when the odds flipped) how many overs were left and how many wickets. State of pitch, lots and lots of stuff.

I do realise that's a lot of data to be recorded especially in-play but to be useful that's what you need. And I'm not volunteering to do it.
Report Cardinal Scott March 26, 2019 2:38 AM GMT
That is too much work charlie, we are all sofa loafers here.
Report VardonVoo. March 26, 2019 2:49 AM GMT
I'm recording these mainly to see how frequently they seem to occur, but I agree extra info would be useful.
Plenty of posters put such detail on the match threads and would be welcome to add summaries here.
But I'm grateful for any contributions to the cause (rattles tin).

Anecdotally from memory I have a feeling the IPL is more volatile than other T20 tournaments, whether through dodginess
or the quality of players. But I'd like to see if the numbers bear this out.

Apologies for the double-spacing earlier.
Report jucel69 March 26, 2019 9:07 AM GMT

Mar 25, 2019 -- 9:43PM, Charlie wrote:


I hate it when it does that. I'll try again.I think you need to record more info for the thread to be useful. Such as who was batting and bowling, how many did the chasing team need (if that's when the odds flipped) how many overs were left and how many wickets. State of pitch, lots and lots of stuff.I do realise that's a lot of data to be recorded especially in-play but to be useful that's what you need. And I'm not volunteering to do it.


Just post a link to the game . It's easy to piece together in your mind from reading the commentary

Report VardonVoo. March 26, 2019 6:46 PM GMT
Match #5 Delhi v Chennai

Before the final over, with two runs needed, Delhi traded at 1,000, then a wicket and two dots later they traded below 100 - that's a ten-bagger!

Chennai began slightly odds on and crossed evens convincingly four times before going on to win.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1175360

"Rabada comes back on with CSK needing just two. I'd have used him in the 19th and tried to swell the last-over target as much as possible.

It was always going to be about that one ball, wasn't it? Dhoni knew he'd get one in his slot, and he knew he'd hit it for six.

RISHU: "Why Mishra when 1 each of rabada and Paul is left? Interesting choice by Shreyas."

19.1  WICKET!!
Rabada to Jadhav, OUT, a wicket. Back of a length wide of off, extra bounce, and Jadhav gets a thin edge to the keeper as he reaches out to steer to third man
KM Jadhav c †Pant b Rabada 27 (34b 2x4 0x6) SR: 79.41

19.2 DOT
Rabada to Bravo, no run, ooh, there's that pace and bounce again. Short outside off, and extra bounce beats the flashing square-cut
Dwayne Bravo walks in.


19.3 DOT

Rabada to Bravo, no run, and again. Another short, rising ball outside off. Wide enough to cut but too fast and too bouncy for the new man, who still hasn't got a measure of the conditions. He goes hard at it, but can't make contact

19.4 FOUR

Rabada to Bravo, FOUR runs, and Bravo finishes stylishly. Shortish, closer to off stump on this occasion. Steps across and then whips it into the gap between square leg and long leg, with front leg up in the air
Wow. Two to get, three balls remaining.



This game seemed to be done and dusted half an hour ago, but CSK have huffed and puffed their way to this target. They never seemed under undue pressure, but taking it so deep and losing a wicket at an inconvenient time left a new batsman facing the pace and bounce of Kagiso Rabada. They've done the job in the end, though, but their net run rate might become an issue if it comes down to that. Won't come down to that if they keep winning, of course."
Report Charlie March 26, 2019 7:35 PM GMT

Mar 26, 2019 -- 10:07AM, jucel69 wrote:


Mar 25, 2019 --  8:43PM, Charlie wrote:I hate it when it does that. I'll try again.I think you need to record more info for the thread to be useful. Such as who was batting and bowling, how many did the chasing team need (if that's when the odds flipped) how many overs were left and how many wickets. State of pitch, lots and lots of stuff.I do realise that's a lot of data to be recorded especially in-play but to be useful that's what you need. And I'm not volunteering to do it.Just post a link to the game . It's easy to piece together in your mind from reading the commentary


I disagree Juce but perhaps I didn't explain it very well.

If you're going to gain useful insight into why gubbins occur then it needs to be clear. At a guess I'd say most occur when a team is chasing and it doesn't look like they will get there but do. I do know of counter-examples though.

Flip-flops are ten a penny and I'd guess they occur in well over 50% of games although again that's just a guess. As you know I virtually always back the team batting first if over evens but I have no record of whether they actually get to less than evens most of the time. I think they do but no evidence and I'm far too lazy to record those sort of things.

You once asked me if I'd reached the cantankerous stage, I think I have now!

VV
I'm pleading being cantankerous but don't see the worth of your post apart from interest, a commentator trying to make things sound interesting and a few mad bettors.

Report detraveller March 26, 2019 11:55 PM GMT
I agree with Charlie. Some days ago I was going to suggest that we make separate threads for Tests, T20s and the domestic games. A month from now this thread is going to be full of posts that are going to read the same. And the only conclusions we will be able to draw would be, 'Oh I never knew this happens so often...'.

I also think FLIP FLOPS are not relevant for T20. They happen too often I think. Plus they don't offer any value in such a short format. Flip flops can happen on a 20 run over. They are more relevant for tests imo where there are three possible results.

For both tests and T20s, I suggest we devise a system or a template where we can insert info about the match such as team names and link to the scorecard. Then maybe write some text as to how, when and why the odds moved. Use a particular text color when making such a post so that they can be differentiated from opinions or commentary from others. Plus use different colors for odds that move from 1.1 to 1.5, 1.1 to 2 and 1.1 to a full gubbing. That way there'll be some consistency.

There are 60 games in the IPL and this thread will be a useless mess by the last game. It is better that we invest some time in creating a particular format for posting, and stick only to serious gubbings.
Report detraveller March 26, 2019 11:59 PM GMT

Mar 26, 2019 -- 7:46PM, VardonVoo. wrote:


Match #5 Delhi v ChennaiBefore the final over, with two runs needed, Delhi traded at 1,000, then a wicket and two dots later they traded below 100 - that's a ten-bagger!Chennai began slightly odds on and crossed evens convincingly four times before going on to win.http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1175360"Rabada comes back on with CSK needing just two. I'd have used him in the 19th and tried to swell the last-over target as much as possible.It was always going to be about that one ball, wasn't it? Dhoni knew he'd get one in his slot, and he knew he'd hit it for six.RISHU: "Why Mishra when 1 each of rabada and Paul is left? Interesting choice by Shreyas."19.1  WICKET!!Rabada to Jadhav, OUT, a wicket. Back of a length wide of off, extra bounce, and Jadhav gets a thin edge to the keeper as he reaches out to steer to third manKM Jadhav c †Pant b Rabada 27 (34b 2x4 0x6) SR: 79.4119.2 DOTRabada to Bravo, no run, ooh, there's that pace and bounce again. Short outside off, and extra bounce beats the flashing square-cutDwayne Bravo walks in.19.3 DOTRabada to Bravo, no run, and again. Another short, rising ball outside off. Wide enough to cut but too fast and too bouncy for the new man, who still hasn't got a measure of the conditions. He goes hard at it, but can't make contact19.4 FOURRabada to Bravo, FOUR runs, and Bravo finishes stylishly. Shortish, closer to off stump on this occasion. Steps across and then whips it into the gap between square leg and long leg, with front leg up in the airWow. Two to get, three balls remaining.This game seemed to be done and dusted half an hour ago, but CSK have huffed and puffed their way to this target. They never seemed under undue pressure, but taking it so deep and losing a wicket at an inconvenient time left a new batsman facing the pace and bounce of Kagiso Rabada. They've done the job in the end, though, but their net run rate might become an issue if it comes down to that. Won't come down to that if they keep winning, of course."


You are already posting in detail so if we have a system it will only make it easier for you as well as the rest of us to make posts.

Report detraveller March 27, 2019 12:37 AM GMT
Why are we using the term Gubbing here by the way?
Gubbing or getting gubbed is when a bookmaker bans you from free bets and bonuses.
Report jucel69 March 27, 2019 4:44 AM GMT
In my eyes a gubbing is 1.01-1.05.
Agree flip flops are irrelevant.
Virtually all gubbings are by the batting side coming from nowhere.
Very rare a team bowling goes over 20's and then wins.
I know that PSL game was one but it's rare compared to the chasing side coming from the bowels of hell.

Another good one is chasing 10 or less in the last over.
Again, very rarely does the bowling side win from my recollection
That would make a good thread. Runs required at the start of final over, odds at the start of that over & through the over + final result.
Report VardonVoo. March 27, 2019 3:09 PM GMT
See how many anecdotal insights we've already generated?

Very rare a team bowling goes over 20's and then wins - that's the kind of interesting idea that this thread will hopefully validate (or disprove). Let's say it's true - that would mean that by laying 20s only when the high odds are on the bowling team you'd be eliminatng most of the occasions when the 20s might actually go on to win, which would suggest that the value you are really offering is more like only 10s (or that the true odds on your 20s lay are more like 40s). Whichever way you look at it that would be quite some edge.


@ DT https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=gubbed

Your definition does also come up in searches but I've not heard it used on here.
"Banned" or "restricted" seem to serve the purpose clearly enough already.

The original Scottish word "gub" means "gob".

"Derived from 'gub', the Scots word for mouth, 'gubbing' someone originally meant halting whatever was coming out of their mouth by force. However, over time the word's meaning has changed to encompass anything, or anyone, that has fallen into an irretrievable state of disrepair or damage."



Regarding flip-flops being irrelevant - that's an arguable point. Every flip-flop means that bets on both sides of the market when correctly timed would generate a guaranteed profit. So then you have to look at how often they happen and how profitable they are compared to times when the bet loses outright, or wins only a small amount because it was traded off for a hoped-for flip-flop that never came. Multi-flippers give chances to massively multiply profits on both sides of the market. Those opportunity should not be dimissed lightly.
Report VardonVoo. March 27, 2019 3:16 PM GMT
And just to annoy:-

espncricinfo.com/series/18886/game/1174240

Pak v Aus 3rd ODI

Aus 160 runs 1.02 (and a little of my 1.01) half-gubbed, i.e. popped up to evens or higher and back down.
Handy as I got my stake back on all the lower 1.01 lays.
Report VardonVoo. March 27, 2019 3:33 PM GMT
Sorry that was 260 runs.
Report detraveller March 27, 2019 4:05 PM GMT
I am not sure I understand flip flops correctly here. A flip flop is when the odds cross over, right? So teams trading at 1.8/2.24 flip flop to trade at 2.24/1.8, right?

I would be more interested in that if the difference between the odds is big. Say 1.5/3 changes to 3/1.5. The nearer the odds are to even, the lesser the return the flip flop provides. And happens too often.

I still think sub 1.1 to 2.0 is the kind of gubbing i'd like to keep track of.
Report Charlie March 27, 2019 4:21 PM GMT
I still think sub 1.1 to 2.0 is the kind of gubbing i'd like to keep track of.

That's fine but you also have to keep track of how many times it didn't happen. What percentage do teams trading at 1.1 win?
Report VardonVoo. March 27, 2019 4:22 PM GMT
Agreed re. the magnitude, particularly for the first/only flip-flop, but multi-flips are still noteworthy. Let's get people contributing regularly before we start fine-tuning the results.

1.1 to 2.0 is what I call a half-gubbing, on the logic that if odds of evens are "fair" then you should be indifferent to betting on one side or the other, so should therefore green out of a low-odds lay to make a profit regardless of whether or not the gubbing goes onto become fulfilled. In practice momentum often takes the odds well past evens but I usually leave a modest resting bet at evens in case it only touches.
Report VardonVoo. March 27, 2019 4:25 PM GMT
@ Charlie = that's why I suggested people keep a note of how many matches were palyed that day/week, or in that tourny.

Number of non-gubs = no. of matches minus gubs.
Report Charlie March 27, 2019 4:25 PM GMT
Or what percentages do teams go from 1.1 to 1.2, 1.3, 1.4 etc and who won?

Flip-flops are useful for betting and you'll sometimes see my comments of i'll try and back both teams over evens from now on. Recording information of why they happened isn't useful imo.
Report Charlie March 27, 2019 4:27 PM GMT
VV
I can see where you coming from but really think there's too much data for lesser mortals like myself. Of course by all means collect everything and then share it with us!
Report VardonVoo. March 27, 2019 4:31 PM GMT
To be more precise, that's "No. of matches actually played to a match-odds payout outcome (i.e.excluding ties)".
Report detraveller March 27, 2019 4:43 PM GMT

Mar 27, 2019 -- 5:21PM, Charlie wrote:


I still think sub 1.1 to 2.0 is the kind of gubbing i'd like to keep track of.That's fine but you also have to keep track of how many times it didn't happen. What percentage do teams trading at 1.1 win?


I agree.
But since we are all lazy, just keeping track of gubbings only would still give u a good idea of the percentage, as long as we keep separate records for Tests, ODIs, T20s, IPL, BBL, PSL and so on.

Report detraveller March 27, 2019 4:45 PM GMT
So we will need to first create a template of storing or printing information here so its easily readable. Then we can modify that to include any future info that we consider relevant.
Report detraveller March 27, 2019 4:47 PM GMT
Writing a program that, for instance, starts recording odds once a team hits 1.1 would be a much easier way. I should be able to write something like that with what I study but im too lazy.
Report detraveller March 27, 2019 4:48 PM GMT
It is shet loads of work if we start doing it manually. Easy to do it in tests but i'd say impossible to store so much info for T20s without investing some time after each game.
Report VardonVoo. March 27, 2019 4:58 PM GMT
Well it doesn't matter too much if we make a total mess of this thread (as long as it doesn't end up being used for general chit-chat) but when there's enough data I'll separate it out and summarise it.
I just think finding the info from individual match threads is a horrendous task, whereas picking out 1.01 gubbings from 1.1 gubbings and flip-flops all contained in one thread should be relatively easy.

Better to have too much raw data than too little. Details of significant match moments can't really do any harm either, if people can be bothered to add them.

Basic info needed is the identity of the match itself, the tourny (if applicable) and then the reason for it being featured here.
Useful extra info is a link to the CricInfo page and a match summary or other relevant details.

If there were more of us forumites then laziness wouldn't be a problem cos there'd always be some smart-arse or other willing to post/boast about their spectacular win.

As it is we keep missing a lot of these gubbings, but I hope people will keep reporting them as they notice them even if they are not basking in glory every time.
Report Charlie March 27, 2019 5:22 PM GMT
Apart from I'm too lazy I'm certain I'd not have time to think about recording data when I'm in one of my frequent fire fighting games. I certainly encourage you and others to do so though!
Report VardonVoo. March 27, 2019 6:15 PM GMT
IPL Match #6 KKR v Lions

In the dying moments Kings lost a last-hope wicket and the odds spiked to 250+ but after a
successful appeal they traded back down and KKR went as high as 1.04, possibly 1.05,
so a possible 10-bagger there for the quick-fingered.
Report VardonVoo. March 27, 2019 6:16 PM GMT
Titans v Cobras Momentum One-Day Cup

Titans traded at 1.04 then must have lost a few quick wickets as they briefly spiked to 5s (which I missed).
I got evens before they shrank lower and went on to chase the total down.
Report VardonVoo. March 28, 2019 6:28 PM GMT
Match #7 Mumbai v RCB

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1175362

Mumbai first innings runs
170 1.01 up to 1.8+
175 1.04 up to 3.0+
180 1.11 up to 6.0+

Mumbai went on to set a target of 187

There were at least 4 small crosses of evens of 0.2 or more in the first innings.
During the chase there were 5 major crosses, the first starting from 1.5 (Mumbai).
Each spike reached to above 3.0 (one touched 5.0) before dropping back to evens,
often dipping appreciably below.

One cross resulted from a first-ball drop of Devilliers.

Mumbai managed to defend despite a fragile spell during their own innings and some clumsy fielding.
Report VardonVoo. March 28, 2019 6:29 PM GMT
188 target
Report peckerdunne March 28, 2019 6:48 PM GMT
What happened here ffs............

If i want a novel i'll buy a bleedin book Grin
Report VardonVoo. March 28, 2019 7:14 PM GMT
What happened here ffs.........

People kept bleating on about wanting more details Cry

It will all be worthwhile in the end, I hope.
Report VardonVoo. March 29, 2019 7:13 PM GMT
Aus v Pak 4th ODI (D/N) espncricinfo.com/series/18886/game/1174241

Pak 1.09 gubbed
Report VardonVoo. March 30, 2019 6:36 PM GMT
IPL Match #10 Delhi v KKR espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1175365

Tied Match "No" overturned. I don't know what lowest odds traded - 1.02?

In the Match Odds Delhi went from 1.01 to upper 1.3s but obviously all that fun went to waste.
Report detraveller March 30, 2019 7:41 PM GMT
No need to record tied games gubbing. If a game ended a tie, its clear No was a very short odds gubbing.
Report detraveller March 30, 2019 7:42 PM GMT
same goes for CMM too, though that can be traded for a long period of time.
Report VardonVoo. March 30, 2019 11:31 PM GMT
I take your point re. ties, but it's still useful to see how often they occur. Bear in mind you may end up trading the tie when a short match-odds potential gubbing is in progress. Though I failed to check it this time, the lowest odds where volume starts to be available would be handy to know even if it doesn't end up being a tie. Also, a "No" half-gubbing that didn't result in an actual tie wouldn't easily be inferred from stats.

CMMs don't always trade in volume at micro-odds if there's already weather in the offing so a short-odds gubbing of "Yes" could mean the weather came as an almost complete surprise.

A short-odds "No" gubbing would be very interesting as the nearly-gubbed "Yes" may have already traded from very low odds and the magnified greens could be quite large.

Probably also useful to get an idea of how often active CMM markets end up having multiple flip-flops.

My gut feeling is it's better to have too much info and filter it out later. Everyone should feel welcome to contribute without over-thinking "does this kind of massive odds-swing qualify"?
Report VardonVoo. April 1, 2019 5:22 PM BST
IPL Match 13 Lions v Delhi


Punjab 160 1.01 to 3.0+

Score reached 166
Report VardonVoo. April 1, 2019 7:22 PM BST
Delh 1.02 Match Odds gubbed
Report peckerdunne April 5, 2019 12:09 AM BST
VV Charles i refer you to general betting, barton bank thread. Confirmation of what i was saying.
Report detraveller April 5, 2019 12:28 PM BST
I am too stupid(and working at low enough stakes for now) to understand some of the problems he has mentioned.
Report VardonVoo. April 5, 2019 7:23 PM BST
Pakistan Cup 4th Match

Punjab v Khyber Pakhtunkwha (D/N)

Punjab 1.02 gubbed - 341 target succesfully chased down under lights.
Report VardonVoo. April 5, 2019 7:26 PM BST
IPL Match #17 RCB v KKR

RCB 1.06 gubbed - 205 chased down in a most unlikely way with 5 balls to spare.

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1175372
Report VardonVoo. April 6, 2019 1:51 AM BST
Also, though I didn't spot the lowest odds, Titans v Warriors

Titans were heavily tipped to be the stronger team and set a target of 217 for a losss of 5 men. I'm sure their odds dipped below 1.10 but I'm not sure what the lowest sizeable trade was. My 1.04 didn't get matched (unless I did something stupid like cancel the bet). Anyway, rain delayed the second innings and D/L set The Warriors a rather easier 57 in 6 overs which they polished off without losing any wickets.

Yet more evidence that the D/L method seems to underestimate the utility value of wickets in hand.

So that's another low odds gubbing - three in one day - a "Betfair  Hatrick" of the day's markets if you exclude the County Cricket four-dayers.
Report VardonVoo. April 6, 2019 1:52 AM BST
For anyone interested - espncricinfo.com/series/8656/commentary/1157224
Report VardonVoo. April 6, 2019 7:44 PM BST
IPL Match #19 Sunrisers Hyderabad v Mumbai Indians

Not as short as I'd normally include but as a lot of people seem to be getting caught up in and caught out by the IPL it gets an honourary mention.

Sunrisers got off to a good start chasing Mumbai's 136 and traded as low as 1.13 before the wheels started to fall off, finally losing the last 6 wickets for a mere 14 runs and falling 40 short of the opposing score.

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178394
Report VardonVoo. April 7, 2019 1:15 PM BST
IPL Match #20 RCB v Delhi Crappy-tools

RCB 150 Runs 1.02 gubbed

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178395
Report VardonVoo. April 7, 2019 2:50 PM BST
RCB also traded in size at 1000 then back down to 100 several times in the last two overs.
Report VardonVoo. April 8, 2019 7:48 PM BST
IPL Match #22 Lions v Sunrisers

Thai "Yes" traded around 50 for most of the match but suddenly shot off to 100 after a productive over followed by a weird stall in the scoring where it dipped below, trading between 55 to 95, then it shot out to 140 for £50 before shrinking all the way down to below 10s before settling on "No" after all.

Meanwhile in the Match Odds during the last few overs Punjab traded in size at 1.01 then eased higher and settled around 1.25ish for quite a while before moving to 1.50/160 even touching the high 1.80s then retreating, pausing to oscillate around 1.50 before King's got really close then finally clinched it with a ball to spare. Not quite a "half-gubbing" but a decent trading opportunity nonetheless.

First time I've observed the Thai for a whole game where it actually got pretty close to happening. Watching the scoring suddenly stall was really strange after it seemed to have only just started to accelerate shortly before. On this occasion I didn't have the radio feed so I was just flying on instruments.

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/scorecard/1178397
Report VardonVoo. April 9, 2019 6:00 PM BST
IPL Match #23 KKR v CSK

KKR Runs

90  101 Reached evens
95  102 Reached evens
100  106 Exceeded evens
108  Scored
110  104 Gubbed
115  106 Gubbed
120  106 Gubbed

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178398
Report VardonVoo. April 9, 2019 8:33 PM BST
Sorry, I missed out the decimal points above - 101, 102, etc should be 1.01, 1.02.....
Report VardonVoo. April 10, 2019 6:07 PM BST
Pakistan Cup - Federal Arreas vs Balochistan (D/N)

Fed 1.09 Gubbed with one major and multiple minor flip-flops.

espncricinfo.com/series/17924/game/1178886
Report VardonVoo. April 10, 2019 8:08 PM BST
IPL Match #24 Mumbai Indians v Kings XI

Kings scored 197

Mumbai 1.01 nearly Half-gubbed. Reached about 1.8ish I think. After losing a wicket in the final over they had to get four runs in as many balls. Down to the wire with 2 scored off the last delivery to win by one run.

Thai "NO" 1.01 Half-gubbed, reaching about 2.25

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178399
Report VardonVoo. April 10, 2019 9:22 PM BST
Several flip-flops in that match too. At least six convincing crossings of evens and a couple more touches.
Report VardonVoo. April 11, 2019 7:56 PM BST
IPL Match #25 Rajasthan Royals vs CSK

RR briefly touched 1.04, trading in the thousands at 1.1 (thanks Pecker) in the last couple of balls of a farcical final over with a 2-run no ball, a free-hit, a wide and a revoked wide involving a just-dismissed Dhoni coming back on to argue the wide, plus two sixes.

The market crossed evens several times during the match, suggesting yet again that backing short odds is not a sure-fire, stress-free route to riches in this particular brannd of T20 tournament.
Report VardonVoo. April 11, 2019 7:57 PM BST
Almost forgot the link - espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178400
Report VardonVoo. April 12, 2019 5:11 PM BST
Zimbabwe v UAE 2nd ODI

UAE 169/8 in a rain-curtailed 35 overs

Zimbabwe early 1.02 Half-Gubbed and then some, due partly to a rain-revised higher target of 210 in 35 overs, 40 runs more than the opposing side scored - not bad compensation to UAE for the rain interruption.

UAE 1.06 Gubbed as Zimbabwe reached the target after all.

A rare short-odds double-flipper of a match.


espncricinfo.com/series/19185/game/1179273
Report VardonVoo. April 12, 2019 7:18 PM BST
That target was reduced to 182 by D/L after bad light cut short the last three overs.
Report VardonVoo. April 14, 2019 1:17 PM BST
IPL Match #29 KKR v CSK

KKR 165 Runs 1.02 Gubbed

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178404
Report VardonVoo. April 16, 2019 5:30 PM BST
IPL Match #32 Kings v Royals

Royals 170 Runs Traded at 1.01 before rising to 1.47+ early in the last over. 182 was scored.

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178407
Report VardonVoo. April 17, 2019 5:20 PM BST
IPL Match #33 Sunriser Hyperbad v Chennai Spacker Kvntz

CSK Runs

135 1.02  Gubbed
135 1.03    "
145 1.05    "

espncricinfo.com/series/8048/game/1178408
Report VardonVoo. April 22, 2019 1:12 PM BST
From Friday 19th April

Warwickshire v Yorkshire ended in a THAI so that was a 1.01 "NO" that got well and truly gubbed.

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167056
Report VardonVoo. April 22, 2019 1:13 PM BST
From Saturday 20th April

1.01 Namibia (v Papua New Guinea) traded above 1.7 before going on to win, so not too far off a Half-Gubbing.

espncricinfo.com/series/8786/game/1174828
Report VardonVoo. April 22, 2019 1:15 PM BST
In the ICC Second Division matches yesterday (Sunday)


1.06 Hong Kong (v Papua New Guinea) totally Gubbed

espncricinfo.com/series/8786/game/1174833


1.06 USA (v Namibia) reached about 2.4 for more than a Half-Gubbing

espncricinfo.com/series/8786/game/1174831
Report VardonVoo. April 22, 2019 1:17 PM BST
From Sunday's Royal London Cup matches

1.01 Somerset (v Glamorgan) reached 4.0 ish during a last wicket stand. Glamorgan came within two runs of winning.
With nearly two overs left Thai "NO" managed to get as high as 1.2

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167063


1.01 Leicester (v Worcesters) reached higher than 1.4 for a potential 40-bagger trade - Leics had set a target of 378 in 50 overs of which Worcester's last pair got within a reasonably respectable 40 runs (i.e. almost within 10%).

espncricinfo.com/series/8335/game/1167066
Report VardonVoo. April 22, 2019 1:24 PM BST
IPL Match #39 RCB v CSK

Teams aren't easily trading as low as one normally expects - people have wised yup to crazy outcomes happening routinely in IPL.
However when it looked almost impossible for even MSD to save the day in the last few overs RCB dipped to 1.03 but then reached 5.5 as Dhoni chose to skip taking singles to stay on strike and whack boundaries every chance he got.

In the end RCB went on to defend the target, avoiding a THAI by one run - close to being a Full Gubbing so I hope every one made some money and or at least that nobody here got roasted.

Thai "NO" briefly touched 1.7 but traded in quantity around 1.3 for long enough to place trades.
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