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Cardinal Scott
06 Oct 18 11:44
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Date Joined: 18 Jul 08
| Topic/replies: 13,885 | Blogger: Cardinal Scott's blog
All the armchair analysts seem to think Aus represent bad value here but a poor Lanka swept Pakistan here a year ago and it wasn't all spin that did it.

This armachair analyst might be laying Pak if Aus bat 1st
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Report ayt October 11, 2018 12:25 PM BST
what,s u backing here bj
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 12:27 PM BST
50 mill incoming
Report bobweenit October 11, 2018 12:27 PM BST
AYT talking Bj's Laugh couldnt make it upLaugh have a day off sonWink
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 12:28 PM BST
Laugh
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 12:28 PM BST
444444
Report bobweenit October 11, 2018 12:28 PM BST
Timmy has Cooper recovered from the fluLaugh not sure how he catches the flu when he don't leave the house
Report Fatslogger October 11, 2018 12:28 PM BST
Gone £4K Aus red. They won’t be chasing this, let alone get it.
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 12:29 PM BST
He's been eating contaminated pizzas
Report sonofshinner October 11, 2018 12:29 PM BST
can oz do it.
Report Fatslogger October 11, 2018 12:30 PM BST
I did wonder about waiting for more tempting prices though. Should have done.
Report ayt October 11, 2018 12:30 PM BST
BACKING ROGER FEDERER BIGGGGGGG
Report BJT October 11, 2018 12:35 PM BST
So we have 90 minutes left right, so minimum overs wins out right? 86 minutes left but need another 24 overs?
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 12:41 PM BST
thats me out...dentist timeCryCry
Report BJT October 11, 2018 12:46 PM BST
2:30 already?  Crazy
Report bobweenit October 11, 2018 12:50 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 6:30AM, ayt wrote:


BACKING ROGER FEDERER BIGGGGGGG


Cool LET'S GO ROGERCool

Report bobweenit October 11, 2018 12:55 PM BST
AYT you just won me Wonga!
Report Hamlin October 11, 2018 12:57 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 4:08AM, ayt wrote:


collapsoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo


Whoops

Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 12:58 PM BST
114 balls
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:04 PM BST
There must be some who are gonna be ROASTED with a draw.  Where are they?
Report Hamlin October 11, 2018 1:08 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 7:04AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


There must be some who are gonna be ROASTED with a draw.

Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 1:08 PM BST
Lets have an early handshake sarfraz Cool
Report Hamlin October 11, 2018 1:08 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 7:08AM, Hamlin wrote:


Oct 11, 2018 --  1:04PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:There must be some who are gonna be ROASTED with a draw.


This

Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:10 PM BST
**********Below 100 balls to face **********

I'm still not out of the woods!
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 1:11 PM BST
if they get to 30 mins left with no wickets lost they'll shake hands i reckon
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 1:12 PM BST
watch for signals from Sarfraz towards the dressing room and the draw price plunge Wink
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:13 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 7:11AM, tomtimtum wrote:


if they get to 30 mins left with no wickets lost they'll shake hands i reckon


Really? knowing Aus collpased like they did 1st innings.

Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 1:15 PM BST
Sarfraz looks like he's had enough already
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:20 PM BST
Keep a lid on reverse sweeps please!
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 1:20 PM BST
I've been keeping quiet, didn't want to jinx this. The monster is about to pour into my BF acc.
My biggest by a distance and feel a bit shaky to be honest.
Laid off at 1.1/1.11
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:22 PM BST
Everything has changed!
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 1:22 PM BST
What an effort over 5 days
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 1:26 PM BST
Saul GoodmanCool
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:26 PM BST
Why would you take the run....what is the upside?
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:29 PM BST
78 balls feels like a huge number now.
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 1:29 PM BST
Surprised
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:30 PM BST
Siddle should have been in before him!
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 1:30 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 7:26AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Why would you take the run....what is the upside?


yeh it's cost a wicket

Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:32 PM BST
If nothing happens for 40 balls I'll start to believe again
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 1:33 PM BST
OUT
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 1:33 PM BST
prize plumb
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 1:34 PM BST
pakis involved in another 1.1 gubbing. It's normally their batsmen who do it though!
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 1:39 PM BST
Aus need Graham Onions!!
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 1:40 PM BST
Grin
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:40 PM BST
I dont know about Holland with bat.
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 1:41 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 7:40AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


I dont know about Holland with bat.


dogsh1t

Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:41 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 7:40AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


I dont know about Holland with bat.


averages 15 in 1st class.  Not bad

Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 1:45 PM BST
Pakistank time wasting Laugh
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 1:45 PM BST
54 balls
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 1:46 PM BST
Surprised they took Shah off with Lyon on strike
Report ayt October 11, 2018 2:01 PM BST
oh my,that lady in BLACK
Report Fatslogger October 11, 2018 2:06 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 7:20AM, jucel69 wrote:


I've been keeping quiet, didn't want to jinx this. The monster is about to pour into my BF acc.My biggest by a distance and feel a bit shaky to be honest. Laid off at 1.1/1.11


UFO landing, match abandoned, no result!

How much? Over £20k?

Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 2:08 PM BST
i missed the carnage
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:09 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 8:06AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Oct 11, 2018 --  1:20PM, jucel69 wrote:I've been keeping quiet, didn't want to jinx this. The monster is about to pour into my BF acc.My biggest by a distance and feel a bit shaky to be honest. Laid off at 1.1/1.11UFO landing, match abandoned, no result!How much? Over £20k?


add another 10+ if it's a draw & 5 if it's a paki win. Had another cheeky bet when Sid got out

Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 2:09 PM BST
Bilal wtf!
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 2:10 PM BST
disappointed in you terry, a true pro would have battled through the toothache!
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:10 PM BST
Who is going to do the Shannon Gabriel????????!!!!!!!!Laugh
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 2:10 PM BST
Grant would have removed the teeth himself
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 2:11 PM BST
LaughLaughim a wimp
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:11 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 8:10AM, tomtimtum wrote:


Grant would have removed the teeth himself


only because he's housebound

Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 2:12 PM BST
well done juce...although it makes me feel like a peasant punter seeing the amount your on for
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 2:13 PM BST
where is the KING ffs
Report ayt October 11, 2018 2:13 PM BST
i need 2 runs
Report ayt October 11, 2018 2:13 PM BST
pls make those 2
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:14 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 8:12AM, TerryHurlock wrote:


well done juce...although it makes me feel like a peasant punter seeing the amount your on for


I do have some big losses though Tel.
It's weight of numbers that keeps me comfortable

Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 2:14 PM BST
ooooh
13 balls
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:15 PM BST
Thought he'd snicked that
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 2:16 PM BST
draw layers in the crowd praying
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 2:16 PM BST
Thought that was out
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:16 PM BST
'orrible paki cheatsAngry
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 2:17 PM BST
Sarfraz relieved
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 2:17 PM BST
fielders seemed genuine
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:17 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 8:17AM, tomtimtum wrote:


fielders seemed genuine


no such thing as a genuine paki

Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 2:17 PM BST
Laugh
Report Hamlin October 11, 2018 2:19 PM BST
Whats the point in running 2?
Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 2:19 PM BST
last over DRAMA
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:20 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 8:19AM, Hamlin wrote:


Whats the point in running 2?


good for the averages!

Report tomtimtum October 11, 2018 2:20 PM BST
wtf are they doing ! almost got stuck with a single
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:20 PM BST
imagine a run outLaugh
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:21 PM BST
MINDLESS ****ERS
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 2:21 PM BST
4 day tests.....yeah right
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 2:21 PM BST
WTF is he looking for runs for?
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:22 PM BST
the finest test ever in the filthiest of countries. I fcuking hate Dubai and everything it stands for
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 2:23 PM BST
YESSSSSSSS
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:23 PM BST
paki backers taken to the cleaners. YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Report Cardinal Scott October 11, 2018 2:24 PM BST
*********************THE BEST F***ING 7 PENCE WIN I HAVE EVER HAD AND WILL EVER HAVE**********


YOU F***ING BEAUTY ExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcitedExcited
Report TerryHurlock October 11, 2018 2:25 PM BST
party time in thailand
well done CS,
paid for my hampsteadsGrin
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 2:26 PM BST
CoolLaughGrin
Report Injera October 11, 2018 5:46 PM BST
Incredible effort by the Cons. Hats off etc.
Report Charlie October 11, 2018 7:00 PM BST
Don't mince your words Juce! Very well done. Pleased for you.
Report Fatslogger October 11, 2018 7:33 PM BST
Makes me feel winning a grand is very small beer! Well done jucel.
Report Whisperingdeath October 11, 2018 8:02 PM BST
Well played Juce!

I don't usually bet on Pakistan Tests and didn't on this! What were the best prices on the draw please boys and on what days?
Report jucel69 October 11, 2018 11:12 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 1:33PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Makes me feel winning a grand is very small beer! Well done jucel.


Don't forget I have some stinking losses too.
I tend just to muddle through and hit a few big wins every year.
After a massive March I had a terrible 3/4/5 months .
Only recently have I hit a purple patch with the CPL and the JLT providing rich returns.
Also NFL is back and I'm steady on that through a season. I can read that pretty well
But it's test matches like this that keep me going.
Draw backs at big prices when I feel the odds are wrong. First bet was 5k at 6s ( huge considering the first inns scores here) and when I laid that off I was 5 figs, just before Aus collapsed. That was the lucky part that enabled me to win big
Then I had another 2k at 10s/11s and another 5 hundred at 20s.
Didn't lay any off til 1.11 towards the end of the day so maximised my profit.
I think it's important to maximise profits as I don't believe that any win is a good win.
There are only so many times when you can get things right so make sure you take advantage of when you read the situation perfectly.
That's why I never shy on stakes, nothing worse than under staking and winning. Also nothing worse than laying off too quickly and then winning. I feel I have effectively used my 'luck' and not taken full advantage of it. You can only make so many good decisions , bound to fcuk things up and read things completely wrong at times
Because on the flip when I am losing I don't red out often enough and let it ride, losing 100% of my stake.
Taking a loss is one of the hardest parts of this game. Something I'm still working on!

Report Fatslogger October 12, 2018 12:19 AM BST
Interesting post jucel. Fits with what I know of your style, which is more balls out than mine, which isn’t to say I’m a coward about big reds. A lot of what I do is setting myself up for the next trade though. I don’t wait on the full draw crash before laying off my backs or the full batting collapse before backing the draw when I’m red. I’m not a weakling but you have to be very strong not to grasp at salvation early when a big risk looks to be paying off, because before it’s paid off, it often just looks like you can get out for a small profit which might be snatched away again if you delay (and sometimes that is the case, of course).
Report Fatslogger October 12, 2018 12:19 AM BST
I’m shocking at taking a loss too.
Report Fatslogger October 12, 2018 12:26 AM BST
Flipped straight to Green All Over (making my way through the bible slowly) and immediately saw this quoted:

What stops us from becoming the trader we aspire to be? Why, when we look at the market, do we see all this money available yet fail to extract any on a consistent basis? The answer is fear.

Funnily enough, Cassini then takes this apart, in his usual abrasive style. It is true for some clearly positive EV cricket trades though, that fear is your enemy. I would do better taking bigger risks and some more losses, im exchange for bigger wins.  Better for PC too, especially as I’m now nudging up against Super PC. Just £6 or 7k to go.
Report jucel69 October 12, 2018 12:56 AM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 6:19PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Interesting post jucel. Fits with what I know of your style, which is more balls out than mine, which isn’t to say I’m a coward about big reds. A lot of what I do is setting myself up for the next trade though. I don’t wait on the full draw crash before laying off my backs or the full batting collapse before backing the draw when I’m red. I’m not a weakling but you have to be very strong not to grasp at salvation early when a big risk looks to be paying off, because before it’s paid off, it often just looks like you can get out for a small profit which might be snatched away again if you delay (and sometimes that is the case, of course).


>I don't think it's balls, it's not resting on a green when I've got one. I'm prepared to lose a big green to make a huge one.
It's easy to take a green after a few days, sigh of relief and miss out on all the future possibilities.
I like to be aggressive when I'm ahead, doesn't always work out though!!
Took 10k to zero on the first Eng v Ind test.
That was poor on my part tbf thinking the balls would settle down after 20/30 overs.
I didn't realise at that time that the batch of Dukes for the series were the most swing/seam friendly ever producedLaugh
What changed my mind was when I reflected on my style when I'm deep red.
I get more aggressive when I'm red to get back to scratch/green, so I thought why not do the same when I'm heavily green.
Before I would get a nice juicy green and then sit back with a cigar, missing loads of opps.
Now I take the same attitude to a big green than I do to a big red.
I also try and take into account the mood i'm in. Can affect my trading massively.
I'm at the stage now where I don't tilt. Once I can feel it, I turn off my computer and go for a drink/sleep.
It's amazing how differently you can feel after either or those. It really is important to me
I can go to bed all doom and gloom, wake up reflect & then see an angle/trade that I think will work and be much more pragmatic.
A few years ago I would be straight to the inplay section (after a bad trade/game) looking for random events to get my money back. Betting on football in Timbucktoo etc
Now I calmly turn everything off and start again the next day.

Report jucel69 October 12, 2018 12:58 AM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 6:26PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Flipped straight to Green All Over (making my way through the bible slowly) and immediately saw this quoted:What stops us from becoming the trader we aspire to be? Why, when we look at the market, do we see all this money available yet fail to extract any on a consistent basis? The answer is fear.Funnily enough, Cassini then takes this apart, in his usual abrasive style. It is true for some clearly positive EV cricket trades though, that fear is your enemy. I would do better taking bigger risks and some more losses, im exchange for bigger wins.  Better for PC too, especially as I’m now nudging up against Super PC. Just £6 or 7k to go.


> Is that book worth reading? I know Tom likes to read about psychology of betting etc

Report Cardinal Scott October 12, 2018 1:07 AM BST
Green All Over that is a trading blog...........I stopped reading him when he  added a donate button.
Report Fatslogger October 12, 2018 8:23 PM BST
Green All Over is very good, IMO, although most of the actual sports stuff isn’t directly useful to me as there’s no way I’ve got time to get interested in and do even minimal number crunching for American sports, which Cassini is quite hot on. I’ve been using the Bunderslayga for a few weeks though and it’s worked nicely for me so far (tiny data set but still). He’s good on various peripheral topics though and he’s my kind of pedantic, caustic, sarcastic bloke. Jucel, I suspect you’d like his style too.
Report Fatslogger October 12, 2018 8:29 PM BST

Oct 11, 2018 -- 6:56PM, jucel69 wrote:


Oct 12, 2018 -- 12:19AM, Fatslogger wrote:Interesting post jucel. Fits with what I know of your style, which is more balls out than mine, which isn’t to say I’m a coward about big reds. A lot of what I do is setting myself up for the next trade though. I don’t wait on the full draw crash before laying off my backs or the full batting collapse before backing the draw when I’m red. I’m not a weakling but you have to be very strong not to grasp at salvation early when a big risk looks to be paying off, because before it’s paid off, it often just looks like you can get out for a small profit which might be snatched away again if you delay (and sometimes that is the case, of course).>I don't think it's balls, it's not resting on a green when I've got one. I'm prepared to lose a big green to make a huge one. It's easy to take a green after a few days, sigh of relief and miss out on all the future possibilities. I like to be aggressive when I'm ahead, doesn't always work out though!!Took 10k to zero on the first Eng v Ind test. That was poor on my part tbf thinking the balls would settle down after 20/30 overs. I didn't realise at that time that the batch of Dukes for the series were the most swing/seam friendly ever producedWhat changed my mind was when I reflected on my style when I'm deep red. I get more aggressive when I'm red to get back to scratch/green, so I thought why not do the same when I'm heavily green.Before I would get a nice juicy green and then sit back with a cigar, missing loads of opps.Now I take the same attitude to a big green than I do to a big red.I also try and take into account the mood i'm in. Can affect my trading massively.I'm at the stage now where I don't tilt. Once I can feel it, I turn off my computer and go for a drink/sleep.It's amazing how differently you can feel after either or those. It really is important to meI can go to bed all doom and gloom, wake up reflect & then see an angle/trade that I think will work and be much more pragmatic.A few years ago I would be straight to the inplay section (after a bad trade/game) looking for random events to get my money back. Betting on football in Timbucktoo etcNow I calmly turn everything off and start again the next day.


I’m not too bad for resting on a green, actually. I’m quite prepared to say lay draw heavily from a green and keep going to a big red if I think the value is there. I don’t tend to leverage positions I’ve already got too massively though, which is probably a failing and will often just faff around with another £250 or £500 bet. I only hammer for thousands when I really see a big opportunity. Sadly, I managed to convert two massive positions in the heavily rain affected England India test into fairly flat positions then eventually a big loss, chasing after the draw when it looked like day 4 would be rainy. The immense irritation with that was that I knew backing the draw had terrible outcome value, even if it did rain loads on day 4, because England were then just going to bowl India out day 5 instead. Of course, if the rain had hit with me holding on to huge draw green, I could have made a lot more...

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