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Cardinal Scott
06 Oct 18 11:44
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Date Joined: 18 Jul 08
| Topic/replies: 19,144 | Blogger: Cardinal Scott's blog
All the armchair analysts seem to think Aus represent bad value here but a poor Lanka swept Pakistan here a year ago and it wasn't all spin that did it.

This armachair analyst might be laying Pak if Aus bat 1st
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Replies: 572
By:
DAN1974
When: 06 Oct 18 12:14
There's been a lot of runs scored in Dubai with only 2 draws. Draw back to lay looks a no brainer to me.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 06 Oct 18 16:43
It’s a hideously bad Aussie side. The bowling looks over reliant on Lyon, who’s okay and Starc, who’s good. There is frankly nothing good to say about the batting. I’d be very anxious having any money on the Aussies to do other than subside abjectly. Away from home they were routinely doing that even with Smith and Warner.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 06 Oct 18 18:15
Shaun Marsh is not a waster and has done well in Lanka so should do well in the desert.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 06 Oct 18 21:36

Oct 6, 2018 -- 6:15PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Shaun Marsh is not a waster and has done well in Lanka so should do well in the desert.


He’s okay but he’s certainly not great (test average 37, FC 40). He’s probably their best batsman though. That’s parlous. Obviously even dubious batting sides sometimes get runs, especially on flat decks but again, you’d not want to be relying on it.

By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Oct 18 06:18
If Pak win toss I'm going straight back to bed with no entry
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Oct 18 06:31
Looks like Pak bat! AngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngry
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Oct 18 06:32
That was soley based on watching the market about 30 seconds ago.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 07 Oct 18 08:23
Missed the good draw prices around 6s (oddly children didn’t get me up before 7am) but did get 5.7 down to 4.9 laying off from 4.7 to 4.2 so reasonable although not exciting position now.
By:
jucel69
When: 07 Oct 18 14:02
These pakis are pure scum
By:
TerryHurlock
When: 07 Oct 18 14:09
thought i would swerve this on as not on telly,regret it now though
By:
TerryHurlock
When: 07 Oct 18 14:10
365 stream just gone down as i typedCry....fk it
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Oct 18 14:27
I have to wait until Aus bat before I try and extract something.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 07 Oct 18 14:50
Have an okay position but bit surprised the draw didn’t get back low again so have too much green there.
By:
stokergoinup
When: 07 Oct 18 14:56

Oct 7, 2018 -- 2:09PM, TerryHurlock wrote:


thought i would swerve this on as not on telly,regret it now though


It's on ch 729 if you have Sky

By:
jucel69
When: 08 Oct 18 07:47
what a grind this is
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 08 Oct 18 08:01
Just layed Pakistan at 1.55....that is my entry if you discount a bit of tick nicking!
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 08 Oct 18 08:05
Not even sure Aus will be batting today, like the poor run rate and dont want to see it improve.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 08 Oct 18 08:23
That wasn't a great entry but Inwill live with it!
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 08 Oct 18 08:32
Captain Grumpy is on comms
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 08 Oct 18 08:57
Holland is no good!
By:
jucel69
When: 08 Oct 18 08:59
yeh he looks poor, but there is no turn at the moment . Looks very flat
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 08 Oct 18 09:58
New ball has brought a slowdown from pak.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 08 Oct 18 10:03
They’re grinding it out pretty slowly. I’ve got a lot of Pak green and just trading the draw plus the original backs of Pak and an Aus lay yesterday (sadly at 13, not in the 3s). Really don’t see Aus holding out very often even on a flat deck but could be some very low draw prices later if they make a decent start. Can’t easily call price moves from here but generally teams do speed up as the first innings wears on.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 08 Oct 18 10:16
Both of those out there want their tons...there will be no accelaration
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 08 Oct 18 10:33
This is disciplned from Aus, wheels are not coming off.
By:
jucel69
When: 08 Oct 18 10:41
I'd like to see the pak layers come back. When will they get itchy feet regarding rr and declaration
By:
jucel69
When: 08 Oct 18 10:41
Aus's odds haven't changed for ages either
By:
Fatslogger
When: 08 Oct 18 10:47
Prices very fixed. I suppose the go slow means that Pak may potentially need to offer a tiny carrot in a declaration although I can’t really see it being that keeping the Aus price down.

I think a grind is probably priced in. We’ll see. I still think there’s somewhat of an acceleration due.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 08 Oct 18 10:53
A very successful PC mitigation effort on the 0-0 in the Liverpool City game yesterday (won £13.7k on under 0.5 goals, losing £11.9 on the 0-0 on correct score market - I’m not sure this is methodologically sound) has got me to the brink of the £400 cash race prize but there’s next to nothing to bet on for the remaining 3 days. Manufacture some action on the international football? Need to swing about £7k (losses included) for a £250 reward, effectively.
By:
tomtimtum
When: 08 Oct 18 10:55
How is the draw price holding up so well, amazing!
By:
tomtimtum
When: 08 Oct 18 10:55
Decided to give this test a miss and I'm glad I did, just looking at the scoreboard and it looks a dire game
By:
Fatslogger
When: 08 Oct 18 10:56

Oct 8, 2018 -- 10:55AM, tomtimtum wrote:


How is the draw price holding up so well, amazing!


Seen the Aus batting line up?

By:
jucel69
When: 08 Oct 18 11:00
bananaman will put the skids on
By:
tomtimtum
When: 08 Oct 18 11:10

Oct 8, 2018 -- 10:56AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Oct  8, 2018 -- 10:55AM, tomtimtum wrote:How is the draw price holding up so well, amazing!Seen the Aus batting line up?


I have but if the pitch is flat as a pancake then even they should be able to bat out time/runs

By:
Fatslogger
When: 08 Oct 18 11:38

Oct 8, 2018 -- 11:10AM, tomtimtum wrote:


Oct  8, 2018 -- 10:56AM, Fatslogger wrote:Oct  8, 2018 -- 10:55AM, tomtimtum wrote:How is the draw price holding up so well, amazing!Seen the Aus batting line up?I have but if the pitch is flat as a pancake then even they should be able to bat out time/runs


They might. It will probably turn at least a bit for Shah even today. As I said, we could see some very low draw prices but I rather doubt the Aussies will see a draw out.

By:
jucel69
When: 08 Oct 18 12:05
Safraz won't hang about
By:
jucel69
When: 08 Oct 18 12:25
Just noticed you can get 3.95 on smarkets. I haven't got an account unfortunately
By:
jucel69
When: 08 Oct 18 12:30

Oct 8, 2018 -- 12:25PM, jucel69 wrote:


Just noticed you can get 3.95 on smarkets. I haven't got an account unfortunately


same as BF now anyway

By:
cricguru_19
When: 08 Oct 18 12:40
There is no sense of the current odds of Pakistan 1.37 against the Aussies as Pak performance was too bad in Asia Cup and Aus team is known for playing good cricket.
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