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FredRescue
03 Sep 18 12:56
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Date Joined: 07 Jul 12
| Topic/replies: 20,098 | Blogger: FredRescue's blog
Predict England's top 3 in the batting order here:
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Pause Switch to Standard View Sri Lanka v England, 1st Test, Galle,...
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Report Fatslogger November 8, 2018 11:52 AM GMT
Anyway, near flat on the draw now having played around with it a bit and had lays at 10 thinking that’s where it would stall at CoP. Still a bit red on SL, who seem a very good lay at 20s for me! Although given I think draw and SL both short, an England back is the play. That’s already where I’m £1.7k green though.
Report Fatslogger November 8, 2018 11:54 AM GMT

Nov 8, 2018 -- 5:50AM, trader pj wrote:


DRaw price will trade somewhere between 3.0 and 5.0 tomorrow as the market gets freaked by prospect of rain, it hap[pens every single time


Really? I think it will be out at 13s if it’s clear at start of play tomorrow and SL could be all out before any real rain scare.

Report trader pj November 8, 2018 11:55 AM GMT
the markets get spooked like horses, especially in Sri Lanka in November, I have seen it before
Report Whisperingdeath November 8, 2018 5:05 PM GMT
I have seen it before too. I have not looked at the weather. I did think yesterday that 20's might be a a good price to buy the draw but thought I did not want to chase further from a winning position. In hindsight perhaps I could have at least covered the draw red. SL cannot win this. I think the pitch will explode soon enough, maybe after much. The seamers will also get uneven bounce.

I have to say I am a little shocked to see the draw at 6.2. We used to trust in The Great Rangana in the good old days, now we trust in God, biblical epic's are over!
Report Fatslogger November 8, 2018 6:58 PM GMT

Nov 8, 2018 -- 5:55AM, trader pj wrote:


the markets get spooked like horses, especially in Sri Lanka in November, I have seen it before


The market is very spooked indeed. I hadn’t anticipated it at all but you called it.

Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 7:03 PM GMT

Nov 8, 2018 -- 5:55AM, trader pj wrote:


the markets get spooked like horses, especially in Sri Lanka in November, I have seen it before


QUALITY Beforetiming!

Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 7:26 PM GMT
I clearly remember pxb stating the closer to the equator the more difficul forecasting becomes, must be a weather play this remarkable draw crash but based on what?   This ground must be closer to equator than any other test match ground on earth.
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 7:28 PM GMT
"Thunder & Liggtning tonight in Galle"
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 7:35 PM GMT
https://twitter.com/Aggerscricket/status/1060558598768652289

A shame this couldn't be delayed 10 hours Sad
Report EUGENE KRABS November 8, 2018 8:03 PM GMT
Blimey ! At this rate the draw will be odds on by midnight !
Report Fatslogger November 8, 2018 8:10 PM GMT
The fact that it’s hammering it down now doesn’t even mean a delay to the start! I’m now very red on draw though and taking more on so hoping I’m right.
Report EUGENE KRABS November 8, 2018 8:11 PM GMT
https://twitter.com/TheBarmyArmy/status/1060588978573783041
Report Whisperingdeath November 8, 2018 8:30 PM GMT
That is a lot of water! There are still two whole days to go assuming it may stop raining! This is not going to make batting any easier! Nice and steamy tomorrow morning. I don't want to go back in but England are 1.32 at time of writing!

Somebody is going to make a killing!
Report jucel69 November 8, 2018 8:37 PM GMT
This is purely English punters/twitter on the ground getting carried away with seeing a tropical downpour.
Often see 100mm of overnight rain. Never normally moves the market as it drains so quickly, but there are a lot of English in Galle and they have caused a panic
It can pour down at night where I live but by the morning you can hardly notice it has rained!
Report jucel69 November 8, 2018 8:37 PM GMT
You can see it moving through even on the accu weather radar
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 8:49 PM GMT
Lankan grounstaff know that Eng are in driving seat here, how about one of them in  moment of patriotic fervour decides to slash a hole in the cover with his penknife.
Report Whisperingdeath November 8, 2018 8:51 PM GMT
the pitch would still dry out...hot sun tomorrow. Classic Sticky Dog! No worries here!
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 8:55 PM GMT
The draw love is UNSTAPPABLE its heading sub 4s ShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShockedShocked
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 8:55 PM GMT
Unstoppable!^^^^ ffs my typos are an uter disgrace.
Report jucel69 November 8, 2018 8:55 PM GMT
Been pouring outside my house all night and now I have the frog orchestra to keep me awake. However when I go out about 7am for my morning constitution I'm certain it will be dry as a bone! Fairly similar here to Sl but I'm in a sub tropical country and SL is tropical. Main difference is I get seasons, while SL has no defined seasons
Report tino147 November 8, 2018 8:56 PM GMT
what country you in Juice?
Report jucel69 November 8, 2018 8:57 PM GMT
Thailand
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 8:57 PM GMT
I will be glued to this market  from now until play starts ( & hopfully it doesn't)
Report jucel69 November 8, 2018 8:58 PM GMT
The only way they won't start on time is if it's raining in the morning
Report Whisperingdeath November 8, 2018 8:59 PM GMT
Shaun Marsh was ruled out of the opening ODI against South Africa due to requiring minor surgery on a buttock abscess.


I don't think I need to say any more.

I shall wait eagerly in anticipation of Try My Best's confirmation that Australian Cricket has finally hit bottom. The only way is up for them now!
Report jucel69 November 8, 2018 9:00 PM GMT
Still more than 7 hours til play starts, totally irrational market!!
Report tino147 November 8, 2018 9:00 PM GMT
I was in Krabi 2 weeks ago and I no what you mean about the weather ...it rained hard but within 15 mins it can be boiling hot sun and dry out
Report jucel69 November 8, 2018 9:01 PM GMT
the whole ground is covered too
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 9:01 PM GMT

Nov 8, 2018 -- 2:58PM, jucel69 wrote:


The only way they won't start on time is if it's raining in the morning


Yeah that is what my head says, draw was 1.8ish the night before day 1

Report tino147 November 8, 2018 9:02 PM GMT
If draw goes 1.88 again I will be in heaven
Report trader pj November 8, 2018 9:04 PM GMT
4.4 tonight? wow!
Report jucel69 November 8, 2018 9:13 PM GMT
Purely driven by Eng supporters in Galle.
The draw takes longer to die in SL anyway as the threat of rain is always there.
It can literally rain at any moment & at a moment's notice.
Completely unforcecastable too!
Report jucel69 November 8, 2018 9:15 PM GMT
I've completely missed all this, but had a few sovs on Eng now at 1.33 as a trade. Looking for 1.2 at the start of play
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 10:12 PM GMT
4.1 matched on draw just now. Shocked
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 10:13 PM GMT
Been staring at market for 2 hours, thank the lord for spotify!
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 10:19 PM GMT

Nov 8, 2018 -- 4:13PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Been staring at market for 2 hours, thank the lord for spotify!


Worth it though as been doing some choice tick nicking! Excited

Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 10:27 PM GMT
A shot of all my tick nick trades last 2 hours.Grin

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1baqQeLOU7R-em466qfWrSlkgDR8CZFyf
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 10:36 PM GMT
WOW look what just happened...draw matched at 3.80 Shocked
Report jucel69 November 8, 2018 10:40 PM GMT
Key thing will be what will happen when people go to sleep and close their positions.
Got to be crazy to go to sleep with open draw backs in play with two days left to play.
There's hardly any upside to holding a draw back at these levels.
It would have to rain all day to see sub 2s
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 10:45 PM GMT
That plunge down to 3.8 undid some of my good work Sad
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 10:45 PM GMT

Nov 8, 2018 -- 4:45PM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


That plunge down to 3.8 undid some of my good work


I was on the lay side at the time Cry

Report Fatslogger November 8, 2018 11:06 PM GMT
Looking for a final draw lay at 4 for a grand to go to £8.7k red. Prepared to stand the loss if I have to but there are 2 days left here! This is a market suggesting half a day or more lost to rain.
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 11:29 PM GMT
Blighty has reached sleep o clock and Indians are yet to wake, this is where money disappears from the ladder and sometimes very strange things happen.
Report Cardinal Scott November 8, 2018 11:31 PM GMT
I'm still in a hole btw but its not as deep now which is great.
Report Fatslogger November 8, 2018 11:33 PM GMT
Missed it.
Report jucel69 November 9, 2018 12:48 AM GMT
I'm out at 1.33, same as entry

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/sat_img.php?area=ha5

Still a lot of cloud about, which may or may not be rain bearing

If you go to the 'sandwitch' option or 'heavy rainfall potential areas' then it's not worth the risk at the moment.
I was hoping it would have cleared by now, but it doesn't look great.
Not going to back the draw either. Keep the powder dry, there is a lot of good cricket coming up!
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 12:54 AM GMT
Draw love has ran out for time being, superficially that is bad for me but it does mean my Lanka green comes into play.
Report jucel69 November 9, 2018 1:20 AM GMT
Wonder why there aren't rain radars for SL/India? I'd be willing to pay a decent amount for access to them!
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 1:38 AM GMT
Lots of price movement in last 30 mins but not much money being matched so hard to know whats going on.
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 3:02 AM GMT
Draw drift 3.8 - 7.8
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 3:23 AM GMT
Make that 3.8 - 8.8
Report ltfc fan November 9, 2018 3:24 AM GMT
Incredible DP movement  all the way in to 3.8 from 12 at COP now back to 8s. That's something to learn from. Held my nerve (don't want to throw away large result greens), but I'll learn from this crazy overnight move. traderpj called it perfectly. Can escape scot free at 3s, so hopefully will be rewarded for ignoring all the overnight shenanigans...
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 3:52 AM GMT
Draw coming in again in very short order 9.4 - 6.2
Report ltfc fan November 9, 2018 3:56 AM GMT
seems little rhyme nor reason to the movement - surely at this late hour, if there were serious danger of delays the DP wouldnt have moved out to 9s...
Report ltfc fan November 9, 2018 3:57 AM GMT
....and as i speak heading towards 8s again...
Report jucel69 November 9, 2018 4:15 AM GMT

Nov 8, 2018 -- 9:56PM, ltfc fan wrote:


seems little rhyme nor reason to the movement - surely at this late hour, if there were serious danger of delays the DP wouldnt have moved out to 9s...


light trading, easy to manipulate

Report jucel69 November 9, 2018 4:17 AM GMT
It had rained overnight, but the great news is we haven't had rain for about two hours now and the groundstaff have done a stupendous job in ensuring the arena is fit for a prompt start.
Report jucel69 November 9, 2018 4:19 AM GMT
As I said earlier it was just England fans and England twitter videos (showing heavy rain) that moved it.
If SL had been playing any other team then there wouldn't have been hardly any action on the draw
Report jucel69 November 9, 2018 4:25 AM GMT
classic case of buy the rumour and sell the news
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 4:51 AM GMT
No movement in market, waiting for spin I assume
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 5:23 AM GMT
Droppage!
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 5:25 AM GMT
Absolute dolly it was too, 1st real chance of day.
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 5:32 AM GMT
This is no Spitting Cobra!
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 5:37 AM GMT
Wicket!
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 5:41 AM GMT
Good line from Manners saying Lanka's approach to reviews is *First Come First Served* Grin
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 5:50 AM GMT
2 soft and unecessary wickets, useless tw*ts
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 5:57 AM GMT
666666666666666666666
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 6:33 AM GMT
Useless Twa*s a jucel wicket overturned and then out next ball.   Can you F**king believe it?
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 6:35 AM GMT
Wicket in last over of session = jucel wicket.
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 6:36 AM GMT

Nov 9, 2018 -- 12:35AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Wicket in last over of session = jucel wicket.


or a drinks break

Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 6:38 AM GMT
I have had a good though halved my red through sheer dedication...but was starting to believe I could be redless. Sad
Report jucel69 November 9, 2018 6:39 AM GMT
looked a bit iffy that did. If at first you don't succeed ......
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 7:34 AM GMT
I want 250 runs+ from the threesome of Kusal Mendis, Angelo Matthews and Chanders....not much to ask for is it?
Report Fatslogger November 9, 2018 8:08 AM GMT
Draw just collapsed but SL price held. Very odd. Anyway, having done some unnecessary trading today, worked nicely for me.
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 8:09 AM GMT
These Lankans are utterly f***ing braindead
Report Fatslogger November 9, 2018 8:09 AM GMT
Wicket puts the draw back where it was about 15m ago. V strange. Anyway having increased green slightly and reduced red, I’m very happy.
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 8:10 AM GMT
All 3 wickets have been unecessary!
Report Fatslogger November 9, 2018 8:10 AM GMT

Nov 9, 2018 -- 2:09AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


These Lankans are utterly f***ing braindead


They really ought to have been hanging on for rain and only taking easy runs.

Report Fatslogger November 9, 2018 8:10 AM GMT

Nov 9, 2018 -- 2:10AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


All 3 wickets have been unecessary!


It’s 4!

Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 8:12 AM GMT
All 4!...cut me some slack FS I'm sleep deprived!
Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 8:12 AM GMT

Nov 9, 2018 -- 1:34AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


I want 250 runs+ from the threesome of Kusal Mendis, Angelo Matthews and Chanders....not much to ask for is it?


Its still doable!

Report Fatslogger November 9, 2018 8:19 AM GMT

Nov 9, 2018 -- 2:12AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Nov  9, 2018 --  7:34AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:I want 250 runs+ from the threesome of Kusal Mendis, Angelo Matthews and Chanders....not much to ask for is it?Its still doable!


Not trying to be rude CS and I think you’re a good trader but I reckon you should be looking for value rather than hoping for the unlikely here. To me the draw is a solid lay here, despite being at 16 or so. Mind you, each time I think that it trades back I need single figures but these are final knockings now, likely enough.

Report Cardinal Scott November 9, 2018 8:34 AM GMT
Yeah I'm done with this now, I'm working on the 1 dayer now.
Report FredRescue November 9, 2018 10:42 AM GMT
The 1990's are over CrazyCry
Report jucel69 November 9, 2018 11:11 AM GMT

Nov 9, 2018 -- 4:42AM, FredRescue wrote:


The 1990's are over


20th century is now GONESad

Report Whisperingdeath November 9, 2018 2:19 PM GMT
Well done to England. Well played to the management, Selectors, Captain and players.

We won't know how important that toss was but batting first gives you confidence in the sub continent. It looks like they had a game plan and stuck to it.

Foakes was not a surprise to me. He had been talked of before and was regarded as a decent batsman too then YJB emerged as a batsman and there seemed no point.

Jennings was a big plus. I knew he had the attitude and fortitude even if prior to the match I would not have played him! He did not look good this summer but I am glad he came through in this match and he can build on his success. I sincerely hope young Hameed's poor form gets over looked and they put him on the A Tours and he too comes good.

No 3.  Moen useful as he is is not the answer to No 3. I do not know who is. Ideally Root would move up to fit others in but if he wants to bat 4 he should. I do not see how Denly gets a chance at 3 but that would have been my preference.

Wicket Keeper. Foakes is the best keeper and he should play if he continues to score well.

YJB...sorry chum but you don't fit into the side at the moment. You better hope Butler loses form.

3 Spinners. No reason why they should all not play next week. They worked well together. They will not all play in Blighty, Aus, NZ etc but this is the sub continent so play them

Broad...sorry pal but not required in SL. If they want to play an extra seamer then give the new kid a go. He has pace and height and will offer an option. There is no point in smashing up Stokes knee. I do not know who to drop to accomodate an extra seamer next week.

England have a very good Test team but as said before need a top spinner, a fast bowler, a number 3 and maybe an opener ( Burns looked worth continuing with ) but apart from that we have a very good team!
Report Injera November 9, 2018 5:18 PM GMT
I think the selectors/ management got lucky. Foakes drafted in late. Jonny would have played if fit.
Root's stubborness in not wanting to bat 3 is a real headache. He came in 10-2 first dig anyway.

Once again we start to play from Jos downwards. Brilliant contributions from Curran and Rashid.

Jennings wouldn't be on this tour if Cook was still there. They couldn't pick 2 new openers and KJ's form in India helped him. He batted well, of course but survived drop chances and a missed review when on 60 yesterday. Just the sort of luck he needs and good for him.

They will be tempted to drop Rashid for JB but I really hope they don't.
Report mafeking November 9, 2018 7:12 PM GMT
surely long term the only place in the side for JB is to bat number 3. made a shedload of runs opening in one day cricket. know it's not the same but he's gonna have to adjust otherwise where else does he go ?

as always england winning due to their incredible depth in all areas except top 3 batting. we've been saying the same thing for 5 years but hasn't stopped them winning big series home and away. obviously it becomes a problem when par in the first inns is 450+ but when 300 to 350 is a good score they're hard to beat
Report Whisperingdeath November 9, 2018 7:16 PM GMT
I'll go with some of that injera but I think they had a game plan and it worked. True dat about Foakes but now they have a major headache bringing YJB back. there is no room at the Inn as far as I can see and same goes with Broad. Lucky maybe but it turned out alright on the night.
Report sewter lives again November 9, 2018 7:17 PM GMT
i think Stokes is the best option to bat 3
Report Whisperingdeath November 9, 2018 7:34 PM GMT
I agree and so does Mark Nicholas or rather he has the talent to fulfill the role. I would rather see him play freely at 6 though
Report sewter lives again November 9, 2018 7:40 PM GMT
he seems to bat well under pressure at 6 and isnt just the banger some people like to think he is
Report sewter lives again November 9, 2018 7:41 PM GMT
and if he isnt going to bowl so much
Report Injera November 9, 2018 7:41 PM GMT
Root should bat 3. Can't have Stokes there, another leftie. Nonsensical to have 3 lefties (Mo) in the top 3.

I fear for Rashid. He does bowl some filth but also the odd unplayable ball. His googly is a gem. JB may come in for him.

Neither Pope nor Denly will get a game. Stokes ran in like a man possesed so I don't see a need for a 3rd seamer next Test.
Report Whisperingdeath November 9, 2018 8:16 PM GMT
injera,

You talk a lot of sense. I have to agree with that. It is logical that Root bats 3 in this series. We should not be under too much pressure from the fall of the first wicket. A new ball on a lively strip is akin to Russian Roulette and you don't want your best batsman playing that in that game. In SL he could bat 3 safely.

There is no way I would describe Stokes as a banger nor any of the free scoring batsmen we have a plenty but I don't include Hales and Roy in that.

I agree that Rashid may be the stool pidgeon but he should not. I don't think England need a 4th seamer as the current team did well enough.

Broad should not come back or Johnny Bstard. I would like to see Stone get a game  but who do you leave out? I'll throw you a left field and say Butler! I am a big Butler fan btw! I am not over there and have not seen the pitch in Kandy. I thought the existing XL did well enough and have all bases covered sufficiently by moving Root to 3 even though I respect and support his desire to bat 4. Not sure how that works with regard to my argument though!
Report Injera November 9, 2018 9:10 PM GMT
Thanks WD.

The balance is great. 3 quicks, one who's a leftie, one who's a genius and Stokes who can bowl at peoples' heads as well as their stumps.

We took 20 wickets comfortably. Let's hope they don't meddle too much.

The issue is the same as it's been for 2-3 years. The first 40 overs or so when we bat. That hole in the roof is still leaking and needs urgent repair. Let's hope Jennings and Burns can prosper.
Report mafeking November 9, 2018 9:19 PM GMT
buttler's been the best performing batsman since his return to the side. in form of his life this year too. not chance he will or should be left out
Report sewter lives again November 10, 2018 9:28 PM GMT
Foakes should not be dropped for either Bairstow or Buttler.

They are both very good keepers but the difference between them and Foakes was palpable.

I still maintain Stokes has the ability and more importantly the discipline to bat at 3.

Simply swap Moeen and Stokes as I think England will get the same or more mileage out of Stokes at 3 and I'm absolutely certain they will get more from Mo at 6/7

Otherwise the team doesn't need changing!!!!
Report Fatslogger November 10, 2018 11:45 PM GMT
Agree with the above. Ali is doing too much bowling to be at 3 and doesn’t have a great game for the slot in tests either.
Report Whisperingdeath November 11, 2018 8:41 PM GMT
Stokes has stated he wants a go at 3 so let's see what happens. No need to change the team for me. They were just talking about the pitch being seamer friendly but three seamers should be enough imho!
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