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Cardinal Scott
08 Mar 18 10:17
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Date Joined: 18 Jul 08
| Topic/replies: 3,908 | Blogger: Cardinal Scott's blog
Plenty of cricket going on in various part of the world at the moment but Test Match Cricket is the trading GOAT and must take precedence.
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Report Cardinal Scott March 10, 2018 10:06 AM GMT

Mar 10, 2018 -- 3:58AM, VardonVoo. wrote:


Anyone else get RSI problems from constant use of the mouse? I've had to become ambidextrous lately.


Surprised I have not got that with all the endless clicking I do.

Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2018 10:07 AM GMT
Well all these free web-cam girls don't help!
Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2018 10:15 AM GMT
Seriously though, I've had burning sensations in the back of the hand, then this last year or two I stopped using a mouse, relying on the scratch-pad instead and I'm in the habit of holding down one button for lengthy periods while scrolling with another finger. I was getting an ache in my bicep and elbow which I assumed was to do with reaching up to use velux windows, but I used a public library computer the other day (which had a mouse) and my hand killed me later on,  then I connected the dots. Gonna use the other hand as much as I can from now on and see how things go. May pop to the docs after this Test.

Draw will probably drop rather quickly post-lunch now that they've made it there without the usual last-over wicket. I can see Aus and draw heading for a swap while SA odds grind down only a little.
Report Fatslogger March 10, 2018 10:32 AM GMT
The prospect of SA getting a big lead and then being able to put pressure on Aus ought to keep the draw from dropping too much, as once they get enough that the Aus win goes long, there shouldn't be much more scope.  Market sentiment is a different beast though and it will regard a really long SA innings as indicating a flat deck. Course, even though it is fairly flat, Aus could easily still skittle SA if they can find some reverse.
Report Fatslogger March 10, 2018 10:33 AM GMT
Oh and not all that much you can do about RSI / overuse tendonitis other than rest it and take pain killers when it hurts.
Report Fatslogger March 10, 2018 10:59 AM GMT
Starc, Hazelwood, Cummins and Lyon is a seriously vinegar attack, isn't it?  It's doing a bit for Lyon and he keeps it tight. O
Report Fatslogger March 10, 2018 10:59 AM GMT
... nly thing really missing is a decent fifth bowling option.

May struggle to keep my posting up as the baby is now awake and attacking the Macbook at intervals.
Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2018 11:04 AM GMT
I've always been a bit loathe to use painkillers - not out of martyrdom, just cos I prefer to listen to what my body's trying to tell me. Stupid of me to mishear for months though. Saying that, I did recently buy a smoke alarm with a snooze button for those lie-in days.

You've just reminded me of that clip with the news correspondent reporting live from his home-office when his baby kid walks in followed by his nanny.
Report Fatslogger March 10, 2018 11:10 AM GMT

Mar 10, 2018 -- 5:04AM, VardonVoo. wrote:


I've always been a bit loathe to use painkillers - not out of martyrdom, just cos I prefer to listen to what my body's trying to tell me. Stupid of me to mishear for months though. Saying that, I did recently buy a smoke alarm with a snooze button for those lie-in days.You've just reminded me of that clip with the news correspondent reporting live from his home-office when his baby kid walks in followed by his nanny.


It's his wife - think it was both his children too.

Report Fatslogger March 10, 2018 11:17 AM GMT
It's been a very pro draw start to this session for the draw to have notched up slightly, hasn't it?  Would have expected a drop to the high 8s by now. As my last few lays were above current price though, I don't think I can back it (obviously I could but it's against my method).
Report Cardinal Scott March 10, 2018 11:27 AM GMT
Dharmasema needs to be demoted
Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2018 11:29 AM GMT
Almost as funny as the clip with the Aussie anchor interviewing the Dalai Lama and trying to tell him the Dalai Lama/pizza joke.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlIrI80og8c
Report Fatslogger March 10, 2018 12:02 PM GMT
I missed on the review again but did get some 12s in the aftermath so further slight improvement in position, although still need a proper draw crash, really.  Funny that the draw price is same as over lunch despite most of a session with no wickets and very few runs.  Course the reverse does loo rather threatening and has reminded the market that SA will probably bowl Aus out a second time for far too few runs to keep the draw in play into day 5.
Report Cardinal Scott March 10, 2018 12:11 PM GMT
Deficit under 100 with only 1 of top order fallen.........this Aus price has to burst.
Report Cardinal Scott March 10, 2018 12:16 PM GMT
Draw coming back into equation can aid that too!
Report Cardinal Scott March 10, 2018 12:19 PM GMT
I got matched on Aus at 5.5 at 11.12am took another hour for my 5.6 order to be filled coz of the spectre of reverse swing! Plain
Report Cardinal Scott March 10, 2018 12:21 PM GMT
Elgar & Hash a draw traders wet dream going along sub 40 strike rate.
Report detraveller March 10, 2018 12:35 PM GMT

Mar 10, 2018 -- 3:47AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Do you know what happened to pxb FS?


Rules in aus changed and he said he was going to stop. I havent been on much since september so im not sure when exactly and for what exact reason he stopped but he did say it was the end. He also made a thread for it as far as i remember.

I think the rules were something like only being able to place bets on phone or something...but im not sure.

Report detraveller March 10, 2018 12:35 PM GMT
Now I remember. He said he wouldn't be able to bet in-play anymore.
Report detraveller March 10, 2018 12:39 PM GMT
I see he was still creating threads for tests in january. SO must still be betting.
Report Fatslogger March 10, 2018 12:42 PM GMT

Mar 10, 2018 -- 6:21AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Elgar & Hash a draw traders wet dream going along sub 40 strike rate.


It's still not really done as much as you'd expect for a whole session of wicketless stagnation but the reverse is the thing, obviously.

Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2018 12:54 PM GMT
I think they changed the rules so that you couldn't even bet in-between days, or something. Lord knows how they think that such restrictions protect people vulnerable to gambling problems - it simply removes their best chances to reduce losses or make a profit.

Price-swap approaching a lot more slowly than I thought it would. SA stable - tempted to lay in the unlikely case of a Wicket McFlurry, but may just continue to drip-back Aus and keep my modest green on SA. Given back half of my draw green already, so won't lay any more unless it goes silly-short.
Report VardonVoo. March 10, 2018 12:56 PM GMT
Worryingly, the UK Gambling Commission were considering blocking gambling at certain times of night - I hope exchange-trading would be excepted, but you can never trust politicians not to mess things up.
Report Cardinal Scott March 10, 2018 1:58 PM GMT
This evening session not doing me any favours! Sad
Report Cardinal Scott March 10, 2018 2:43 PM GMT
AB is still great, where everyonr else struggles he shines.
Report Cardinal Scott March 10, 2018 3:33 PM GMT
I had one goal for the day to get myself redless and after a terrifying period just after tea I have managed that thx to the 3 Format GUN AB de Villers. Excited
Report Cardinal Scott March 10, 2018 3:36 PM GMT
I layed Aus as low as 2.14. in that session. Excited
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 7:47 AM GMT

Mar 10, 2018 -- 9:36AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


I layed Aus as low as 2.14. in that session.


They’d have been odds on if they’d got AB early. SA to bat last on this too: right now I’d rather back than lay Aus at 3.1. Course there’s still scope for a decent first innings lead though so Aus will fly out with a good start to the morning for AB and Big Vern. I’m wondering where to look to go green. At the moment I’ve got a lot of rather unrealistic draw lays in, that will leave me big if the draw gets back to the 7s and massive if it ever get to the 3s. I’m pretty sure I should be less ambitious but how much less?

Report Cardinal Scott March 11, 2018 8:04 AM GMT
Saffer bat until lunch, that is the summit of my ambitions here.
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 8:12 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 3:04AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Saffer bat until lunch, that is the summit of my ambitions here.


That would do nicely. I missed my last draw back at 15.5 having laid quite a bit off at 14.5 at close, which is a shame as wanted to take more advantage of the no wicket first over and a half draw crash but still a lot better than if there had been a wicket. Now it’s hit a couple more lays I’m actually green on SA to the princely tune of £15, £150 red Aus and £8.6k draw green, which is a lot, lot less comedy than after I last chased the price up on a wicket, when I had well over £20k.

Report bemb29 March 11, 2018 8:23 AM GMT
How low do SA go in this innings?
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 8:29 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 3:23AM, bemb29 wrote:


How low do SA go in this innings?


Will continue falling until the lead well over 100 and especially so if scoring quickly, which they will if they keep batting. Could see 1.25 if they get past 100?

I’ve now got a bit irritated with myself for taking too many lays at 14.5!

Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 8:30 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 3:04AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Saffer bat until lunch, that is the summit of my ambitions here.


Where do you go green?

Report Cardinal Scott March 11, 2018 8:34 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 3:30AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Mar 11, 2018 --  8:04AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:Saffer bat until lunch, that is the summit of my ambitions here.Where do you go green?


I already did last night but then went back in with some Aus lays around the 3's mark.

Report bemb29 March 11, 2018 8:37 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 3:29AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Mar 11, 2018 --  8:23AM, bemb29 wrote:How low do SA go in this innings?Will continue falling until the lead well over 100 and especially so if scoring quickly, which they will if they keep batting. Could see 1.25 if they get past 100?I’ve now got a bit irritated with myself for taking too many lays at 14.5!


Started my lays off at 1.45. Look comfortable at the moment

Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:00 AM GMT
Market thinks SA batting on means it’s flat. It is a bit flat but both sides have got reverse and very hard for Aus to bat out for a draw having been bowled out with so much of day 1 left.

Wicket now. Not going to chase up too much but got lots of my smaller lays picked up so have room to trade a bit.
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:04 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 3:37AM, bemb29 wrote:


Mar 11, 2018 --  8:29AM, Fatslogger wrote:Mar 11, 2018 --  8:23AM, bemb29 wrote:How low do SA go in this innings?Will continue falling until the lead well over 100 and especially so if scoring quickly, which they will if they keep batting. Could see 1.25 if they get past 100?I’ve now got a bit irritated with myself for taking too many lays at 14.5!Started my lays off at 1.45. Look comfortable at the moment


Surprised that SA haven’t shortened further but as i say, market thinks flat surface so draw has come in a lot more. Clearly my nominal 1.25 was miles off though.

Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:12 AM GMT
Lol, didn't call that review either. Seemed a surprisingly big move even if he had been out!
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:14 AM GMT
Also missed the draw then bafflingly blipping up to 10s. Oh well, can’t hit all the right notes.
Report bemb29 March 11, 2018 9:16 AM GMT
1.4 for 100 lead seems crazy
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:17 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 4:16AM, bemb29 wrote:


1.4 for 100 lead seems crazy


Could still be 150 plus though.

Report bemb29 March 11, 2018 9:23 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 4:17AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Mar 11, 2018 --  9:16AM, bemb29 wrote:1.4 for 100 lead seems crazyCould still be 150 plus though.


Yeah that’s what I meant. I think 1.40 is big. With how tired Aus look and how the balls been reversing. Plus the amount of time left in the match

Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:25 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 4:23AM, bemb29 wrote:


Mar 11, 2018 --  9:17AM, Fatslogger wrote:Mar 11, 2018 --  9:16AM, bemb29 wrote:1.4 for 100 lead seems crazyCould still be 150 plus though.Yeah that’s what I meant. I think 1.40 is big. With how tired Aus look and how the balls been reversing. Plus the amount of time left in the match


Ah, in that case agree. The favourite is often too long in this sort of situation, partly because there’s too much belief in the draw.

Report jucel69 March 11, 2018 9:26 AM GMT
ABD is the goat of my generation. Slated him in recent years with his approach to test cricket and I still can't understand why he wouldn't want to shine at the pinnacle of his sport. Forget this T20 sludge this is where legends are made, not in the pleb's version of cricket
Report jumper3 March 11, 2018 9:26 AM GMT
Don't come here much to post but the draw has now become the value bet. Hoping SA can at least eke out a 150+ lead. The Aussies won't have enough time to build a declarable lead. This time tomorrow the draw is edging towards favourite.
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:29 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 4:26AM, jumper3 wrote:


Don't come here much to post but the draw has now become the value bet. Hoping SA can at least eke out a 150+ lead. The Aussies won't have enough time to build a declarable lead. This time tomorrow the draw is edging towards favourite.


Lol, I’m just trying to get my draw green off at 8 thinking we get a wicket to put it up or SA carry on quick scoring and it doesn’t drop much for that reason.

Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:30 AM GMT
I’ve been wrong a lot before mind you. Problem with a draw back is that Aus wickets go and there’s no way back.
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:31 AM GMT
Starc’s ton up.
Report Cardinal Scott March 11, 2018 9:33 AM GMT
This could alter the whole series this AB knock, Hazelwood looks ordinary again.
Report bemb29 March 11, 2018 9:36 AM GMT
Just under 4 figure green on everything. Now what will be my next move to turn it all red haha
Report jumper3 March 11, 2018 9:37 AM GMT
Just cannot see SA knocking over the Aussies twice in the one test. Next hour of play is crucial
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:39 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 4:37AM, jumper3 wrote:


Just cannot see SA knocking over the Aussies twice in the one test. Next hour of play is crucial


Why on earth not?

Anyway, runs did bring the draw in and a wicket didn’t push it out much so ignore me!

Report bemb29 March 11, 2018 9:41 AM GMT
Aus would have to bat 5-6 sessions. Don’t see it personally
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:48 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 4:41AM, bemb29 wrote:


Aus would have to bat 5-6 sessions. Don’t see it personally


It’s certainly very possible for the draw to trade a hell of a lot lower but just looking at outcome value this price isn’t a back. I’m on it I need the 8s for trading only, looking for a quick trade back.

Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:49 AM GMT
In, not I need, obviously.
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 9:56 AM GMT
Don’t think you should be taking risky second runs fourth ball of the over but it was a stunning bit of fielding, to be fair.
Report detraveller March 11, 2018 10:30 AM GMT
Draw is a risky back imo. The game could be over in a session.

Rabada for one would be fired up for his last innings of the series.
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 10:35 AM GMT
Agree. Early wicket equals draw price of 11 plus and could easily never recover. It’s not an awful trade but I try not to trade the third innings hard, especially when the side batting third is so far behind.

Backing draw after the last wicket was a good move but I was too greedy and missed.
Report bemb29 March 11, 2018 10:51 AM GMT
Jumped on the draw in the innings break with green
Report Injera March 11, 2018 11:13 AM GMT
That draw plunge into 6s was extraordinary. It's only Day 3.

Certainly got me (partially) out of a big hole.
Report Cardinal Scott March 11, 2018 11:21 AM GMT
I have got on draw after that Warner wicket, draw doubled which can't be right...Trading With Green
Report Injera March 11, 2018 11:26 AM GMT
15 more minutes and we're only at half way point in the test!!

I have a theory that when matches start on Fridays draw plunges can occur on Sundays.

I was staggered an hour into the morning session to be able to lay the draw at 6s (and shift some SA red)
Report VardonVoo. March 11, 2018 11:35 AM GMT
A draw back seems so vulnerable though - Aus won't be priced as completely out of this as long as they look like reaching parity with enough wickets left to possibly put on a decent lead, but a couple of quick wickets followed by sporadic ones could easily finish the draw off. I think I'd rather wait to back it in the 20s hoping for 10s then back it now hoping for 5s.
Report Cardinal Scott March 11, 2018 11:41 AM GMT
Erratic Bancroft and (homer) Khawaja not natural friends of draw here, should have waited for Smithy
Report Injera March 11, 2018 11:45 AM GMT
That Rabada over to Warner is as good as we'll ever see. Shame he's gonna get banned!
Report Cardinal Scott March 11, 2018 12:06 PM GMT
Past 1/2 way and 19 wickets needed
Report VardonVoo. March 11, 2018 12:10 PM GMT
I'm trying to work out what's more likely, 5 dropping to 3 or 9 coming in into 5.
Report VardonVoo. March 11, 2018 12:12 PM GMT
Got a few more overs to ponder that one now.
Report Cardinal Scott March 11, 2018 12:12 PM GMT
SadSadSad
Report VardonVoo. March 11, 2018 12:22 PM GMT
5 to mid 6s was less damaging than 9 into 16. Draw already the riskier back IMHO and will only get worse on further wickets.
Report Cardinal Scott March 11, 2018 1:05 PM GMT
Going to be over tonight!
Report VardonVoo. March 11, 2018 1:09 PM GMT
This game is nothing but a heartache.
Report VardonVoo. March 11, 2018 1:18 PM GMT
This is where you need a partnership  - so your bet of 100s+ on the draw comes into 20s and triples your money, despite having almost no chance of happening. Non-exchange punters never seem to grasp this idea (nor do wives and girlfriends, unfortunately!).
Report Injera March 11, 2018 3:11 PM GMT
There's your 20s and below VV!
Report VardonVoo. March 11, 2018 3:20 PM GMT
Got matched all the way up to 150! Started laying back at 32 down to 18. Decent green on everything now, weighted much more to Aus. Aiming to keep my SA green to at least 3/4 of the "Auto-Mug" quote.
Report VardonVoo. March 11, 2018 3:22 PM GMT
Question:- What must a lot of us remember to do at stumps?
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 3:27 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 10:22AM, VardonVoo. wrote:


Question:- What must a lot of us remember to do at stumps?


Go for a wee? Talk to our wives and girlfriends? Change the baby? Lay the draw?

Report VardonVoo. March 11, 2018 3:27 PM GMT
Answer:- PHONE YA MUM!!!!
Report Cardinal Scott March 11, 2018 3:29 PM GMT
Mitchell Marsh is clearly a frontline batsman now who can bowl a bit.
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 3:29 PM GMT
Have a bet on the toss in the PSL?

Sadly my mum is beyond the reach of phone calls. She’d have been so excited to spend the day with her grandchildren and see how keen on art my daughter is. Not to be.
Report Fatslogger March 11, 2018 3:30 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 10:29AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


Mitchell Marsh is clearly a frontline batsman now who can bowl a bit.


His FC stats are much more the other way around my. Couldn’t believe he was ever batting at 6 in tests. He’s done well this stint in the side though, have to say.

Report Cardinal Scott March 12, 2018 7:44 AM GMT
Getting on the draw yesterday was a bad move but there is still time to salvage something by drip backing SA at every price as they rise.   All the way to evens if necessary
Report Cardinal Scott March 12, 2018 8:29 AM GMT
I only got some 1.13, 1.14 & 1.15 Plain
Report detraveller March 12, 2018 8:39 AM GMT
Well done Rabada.
Report detraveller March 12, 2018 9:09 AM GMT
ffs Rabada charged again for Warner send off. He is going to ruin the series
Report VardonVoo. March 12, 2018 11:06 AM GMT
Remember this? :-

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2017/07/07/

huge-blow-south-africa-kagiso-rabada-banned-second-test-foul/
Report VardonVoo. March 12, 2018 11:07 AM GMT
(Obviously you need to concatenate those into one link).
Report detraveller March 12, 2018 3:51 PM GMT
Yes I remember. And I think this ban should be a bigger lesson for him as its the last series v aus for many in this team. and of course theyve never beaten aus in sa since readmission.

But the series stands ruined. If there is no one to reverse it for them, SA aren't winning.
Report Injera March 12, 2018 5:51 PM GMT
Match Ref having 24hrs to think on it.

If he's banned for the last 2 tests, Oz must be odds on.

He's different gravy.
Report Fatslogger March 12, 2018 7:49 PM GMT
Think he has to be banned. They’re normally pretty firm on stuff that’s on camera. Morkel is hardly a bad guy to bring in but no Rabada. I’m trying to lay SA fairly hard at 2.56, in fact.
Report Injera March 13, 2018 4:08 PM GMT
Banned for next 2 matches. SA drifted to 2.68/7.

It's the length Rabada bowls that sets him apart. Constantly hitting top of off at serious pace.

To make this much impact at such an early age is incredible.

Very few of Morkel's balls hit the stumps, which has stopped him from being one of the greats imo.
Report Fatslogger March 14, 2018 9:58 PM GMT
Agree Inj. You can leave Morkel five balls an over a lot of the time. Rabada is always at you. He goes for runs but he’s a constant threat.
Report detraveller March 15, 2018 7:40 AM GMT
Very few of Morkel's balls hit the stumps, which has stopped him from being one of the greats imo.
Does he ever hit the stumps?
But I think his role in the team is also one of softening the batsmen up and hence bowling short. But i'm glad he's going.

Rabada might play the next game with the appeal. Lets see how that works out for them.
Report Whisperingdeath March 15, 2018 1:25 PM GMT
Morkel is more effective with Steyn in the team as you say.

He coulda shoulda been more prolific. He bowls too short for me. Kwality player though and on his day and the right pitch a monster.
Report detraveller March 20, 2018 8:28 AM GMT
RABADABADOOOOOOO!!!!!
Report anxious March 20, 2018 11:22 AM GMT
South Africa 27-20 Draw 4-1 Australia 27-20   365
Report Whisperingdeath March 20, 2018 11:23 AM GMT
Booooooooooooooooooooooooom tick tick Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom

Convicts to pay I suggest with Controlled aggression. 'aving it back I suggest and they won't like it up 'em!

Keep a close eye on Smudge if Aussies are on the rack or he doesn't score too many runs. I also suggest he may expload!
Report Whisperingdeath March 20, 2018 11:23 AM GMT
I forogt to add

Are you ready for this!
Report Injera March 20, 2018 4:01 PM GMT
Just shows how toothless the ICC are when it comes to discipline.

6 hour hearing as well!!!!!!!
Report Fatslogger March 20, 2018 7:59 PM GMT
That’s weak as piss and quite irritating for me after I hadn’t a large SA lay. Still plenty of chance for it to go okay for me.
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