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Charlie
06 Jan 18 07:47
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Date Joined: 01 Dec 01
| Topic/replies: 25,677 | Blogger: Charlie's blog
Melbourne Stars (Playing XI): Ben Dunk, Luke Wright, Kevin Pietersen, Glenn Maxwell, Peter Handscomb(w), Marcus Stoinis, James Faulkner, John Hastings(c), Adam Zampa, Jackson Coleman, Michael Beer

Melbourne Renegades (Playing XI): Marcus Harris, Aaron Finch(c), Cameron White, Brad Hodge, Tom Cooper, Dwayne Bravo, Mohammad Nabi, Tim Ludeman(w), Jack Wildermuth, Kane Richardson, Brad Hogg

Melbourne Renegades have won the toss and have opted to field
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Report Charlie January 6, 2018 7:49 AM GMT
Can the Stars finally get their act together after losing their first three games? I'm starting with a back of them but was hoping for a bigger jump in odds when they lost the toss.
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 7:52 AM GMT
They've lost twice to the Heat who are top of the table and also to Scorchers who are second. They look a good all-round team to me but so do Renegades.
Report Cardinal Scott January 6, 2018 7:57 AM GMT
Might have a crack at this while I wait to see if Pujara can pull me out of the mire, getting on Stars,,,,,i'm in recreational mode for this which means cutting my stakes right back.
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 7:59 AM GMT
Much the same in the test.
Report pxb January 6, 2018 8:01 AM GMT
Stars have been mediocre so far.
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 8:02 AM GMT
Should be a big crowd, just said 80,000 expected.
Report Joel January 6, 2018 8:12 AM GMT
Should be a cracking game
Report Cardinal Scott January 6, 2018 8:14 AM GMT
Its galling having to root for KP when I can't stand him.
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 8:18 AM GMT
Don't know anyone who does like him apart from himself.
Report BJT January 6, 2018 8:19 AM GMT
I do.  :)
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 8:19 AM GMT
Laugh
Report Cardinal Scott January 6, 2018 8:22 AM GMT
12 of 13 where is the old Luke Wright?
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 8:23 AM GMT
Top up at 2.26.
Report BJT January 6, 2018 8:27 AM GMT

Jan 6, 2018 -- 8:22AM, Cardinal Scott wrote:


12 of 13 where is the old Luke Wright?


Can't play off spin, and won't learn how to.

Report Charlie January 6, 2018 8:30 AM GMT
Forgot to say very well done on yesterday's game BJ your analysis of run chase was spot on.
Report BJT January 6, 2018 8:31 AM GMT
Cheers.  Just need to learn how to convert that to money.  lol...
Actually, made a bit yesterday, but well down for the tourny even though I feel I have read the majority pretty well.  Playing with scared money...
Report BJT January 6, 2018 8:36 AM GMT
Very early, but on average, at least from the stats I have so far (limited), run rate at 5-6 overs is around 100% of total.  Meaning on average, 165 is scored from here.
Report BJT January 6, 2018 8:38 AM GMT
Sorry, not rr, but projected score.  Pretty close to rr, but adjusted slightly... 

Over    Wickets        ExpTotal
1    0    4    96
2    0    14    152
3    1    18    127
4    1    27    143
5    1    37    156
6    1    50    174

156-174, average, 165...

Just making noise for now...
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 8:43 AM GMT
Do you ever bet on runs based on your predictions?
Report ayt January 6, 2018 8:44 AM GMT
Aytttttt
Report ayt January 6, 2018 8:45 AM GMT
On Mel R lay from start...free wongaaa
Report BJT January 6, 2018 8:48 AM GMT

Jan 6, 2018 -- 8:43AM, Charlie wrote:


Do you ever bet on runs based on your predictions?


Mainly trade the odds.  Spreadsheet is a work in progress, that I have as a rough guide, constant tweaking.  Don't have the bank to do much more than try and grab small market moves for now, especially on cricket, which is my most volatile sport by far.

Report Charlie January 6, 2018 8:51 AM GMT
Left a lay of Stars at 1.79 and back of Renegades at 2.3 up while cooking breakfast. I'd have moved them if I had remembered.
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 8:52 AM GMT
Also now laid at 1.59 to go green on both.
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 8:55 AM GMT
Good timing!
Report BJT January 6, 2018 8:55 AM GMT
Good job.  I had a few sprinkle lays starting at 1.54, so just missed for me....
Report BJT January 6, 2018 8:56 AM GMT
6    1    50    174
7    1    54    163
8    1    61    164
9    1    72    173
10    1    82    177
11    2    89    174
12    2    90    161
Report pauliow January 6, 2018 8:56 AM GMT
I layed at 1.59 too! Great mindsWink Market didn't move quite as much as I'd expected though
Report BJT January 6, 2018 8:57 AM GMT
That 12, is obviously an over in progress.....
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 8:58 AM GMT
Nor for me paul, i intended to go back in if a wicket but odds shift wasn't big enough.
Report pauliow January 6, 2018 9:00 AM GMT
I'm sitting tight for a bit now Charlie
Report Cardinal Scott January 6, 2018 9:04 AM GMT
A 2 trade game for me, on Stars at 2.12 and off them at 1.64 Grin
Report BJT January 6, 2018 9:04 AM GMT
Tough to gauge this so far.  Hodgey saying grease up a little later to make batting easier.

Happy to lay around a little at these odds as I don't think they are going to go too big from here.
Report Cardinal Scott January 6, 2018 9:04 AM GMT
Typical that when you use smaller stakes you nab a stress free win.
Report BJT January 6, 2018 9:06 AM GMT
Not out.  Shirley..
Report BJT January 6, 2018 9:07 AM GMT
Not enough camera angles to see it apparently...
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 9:10 AM GMT
Wasn't watching had a shave.
Report pauliow January 6, 2018 9:12 AM GMT
I really want to lay the Stars here, will do so if they hit a few boundaries to bring the odds down a bit
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 9:12 AM GMT
Same for me was looking to lay around 1.5 but that seems a fair way off.
Report BJT January 6, 2018 9:13 AM GMT
Yeah, my sprinkle lays are 1.46 to 1.67 now..
Report pauliow January 6, 2018 9:16 AM GMT
Same here Charlie but I'm not sure we'll get that now. Need a flurry from the Big Show!
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 9:18 AM GMT
Going for 1.6 now.
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 9:21 AM GMT
Never noticed those stripey stumps before. Do they always use them?
Report pauliow January 6, 2018 9:26 AM GMT
Think I've missed the boat now. Off for a shower and I'll come back later and have a look at the Renegades innings
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 9:26 AM GMT
Green slowly disappearing.
Report BJT January 6, 2018 9:33 AM GMT
I jumped in at 2.02 for my lays.  Getting a little off now, but think Stars big unders now.  Most looking for 2.30s+
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 9:37 AM GMT
Not to be. Going to trust to pure luck and leave bets as they are and go out for about an hour. GL all.
Report BJT January 6, 2018 9:38 AM GMT

Jan 6, 2018 -- 9:37AM, Charlie wrote:


Not to be. Going to trust to pure luck and leave bets as they are and go out for about an hour. GL all.


Haven't had a good luck, but feel is even though I think they are short of par, this is no straight forward chase, and Stars likely to trade short.

GL..

Report BJT January 6, 2018 9:39 AM GMT
lol.  Haven't had a good *look* not good luck..  :)
Report BJT January 6, 2018 9:57 AM GMT
Tough one here.  The 40% mark is hit at 9 runs an over. 
However, 13 is the highest score.
4 lowest.

Don't think this is set in stone, however, if any grease around, should get over the line the Renegades.

Odds about right for now, so out of any position atm.
Report Cardinal Scott January 6, 2018 10:25 AM GMT
Looks like I got out at the right time ages ago, the Stars imploded.
Report GRANTCKING January 6, 2018 10:45 AM GMT
Cool
Report Charlie January 6, 2018 10:47 AM GMT
Trusting to luck didn't do much for me.
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