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19 Sep 17 08:53
Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 7,682 | Blogger: pxb's blog
I think this could be a competitive downunder Ashes and end up 2-2 or 3-1. As always, England's biggest challenge is to avoid going down to defeat at the Gabba. It's possible the weather might help them out as Brisbane prone to storms.

Aus have better bowling, but prone to injury, while England's batting line better IMO.

Markets have Aus at evens for the first match, which seems pretty generous to me, given their history at the Gabba. Been 40 years since Eng won here. Although they have managed a couple of draws since.
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Report peatysandy September 19, 2017 8:03 PM BST
Strongly fancy England. Deep batting and more match winners. Gabba is obv concern but get a weather assisted draw there and we are on the way.
Anyone know who is showing highlights as ckearly not gonna see too much live.
Report Injera September 21, 2017 4:58 PM BST
Possibly the hardest Ashes to call for many years.

England consistently flawed in their batting despite looking great on paper with unrivalled depth. Starc very dangerous IF fit. Not sure about Hazlewood yet.

Eng heavily reliant on Jimmy who doesn't get the swing in Oz. In 2010-11 it was Bresnan and Tremlett who made big impacts. Who could it be this time? Wood or Woakes perhaps.

Two 5-0 drubbings in the last 3 trips down there. Wretched record at Brissy and Perth. Beaten up badly for 3 days at the Gabba then saved by Trott and Cook's heroics. Butchered at Perth but still won 3-1.

There's no doubt when Eng lose there they capitulate on and off the pitch.

Oz look decidedly average to me and should be there for the taking but all of the above means I haven't a scooby what will happen.
Report Cardinal Scott September 21, 2017 5:29 PM BST
Wade needs to be to be someone better than him down under.
Report FatherMaguire September 21, 2017 5:32 PM BST
I think England would have to be significantly better than Australia to beat them on their own patch, they aren't and will struggle - 3-1 to Aus for me. Can't see Anderson being particularly effective, and Wood might get the nod at the back end of the series
Report mafeking September 21, 2017 7:43 PM BST
gotta manage wood properly even if he is fit. he just cannot play back to back tests
Report Try My Best September 21, 2017 8:46 PM BST
Report Whisperingdeath September 21, 2017 10:11 PM BST
Hard one to call this pxb

Both sides have brittle batting and look vunerable. I think a fit Aussie bowling line up is stronger than Englands.

I think if Root does not have to bat against a new ball then they have a chance. Much will depend on Cook to defend Root. If we don't get blown away early we could make some decent scores and if it comes down to attrition we can spread the bowling load wider.

It could be an evenly balanced series but Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood could cause serious damage if fit.
Report Try My Best September 21, 2017 10:39 PM BST
It is for you.
Report pxb September 22, 2017 12:21 AM BST
I don't see these 2 teams drawing without a fair amount of rain.
Report pxb October 1, 2017 12:11 AM BST
Stokes hasn't done me any favours in the series market. Aus now 1.46 to win the Ashes.
Report rosebowl October 1, 2017 9:33 AM BST
The Stokes situation is a big blow to England and much as I would like to see them win I think Aussies must be favs.England teams tend to unravel quickly in Aus and many careers have ended quickly.Last tour Swann, Trott and Peterson all met the exit door.Aussies batting is fragile but so is Englands and I think the Aussie quicks will be the difference. Hope its a tight tense 5 game battle but a first game defeat for England could see an England tour collapse.
Report Whisperingdeath October 2, 2017 6:05 PM BST
I think it could be a bit up and down rosebowl. On a flat wicket this England tean can score runs if they don't lose more than 4 wickets to the new ball. As long as 2, 3 and 5 are the ones out early we are still in the game as we will have only lost one batsman!Laugh!

If there is nothing in the pitches out attack looks a little powder puff particularly without a 4th decent seamer to keep the pressure and attrition going. The choice of Crane looks even more ridiculous now. Moen will be facing chin music and if he gets injured things are going to get beyond Monty Python and more like Keystone Cops. Then we will have the selectors saying how could we have forseen this eventualityAngry?

Foresight not hindsight! No chance! Lock them up and free the Bristol 2!
Report Injera October 4, 2017 4:33 PM BST
I can't see any situation where Crane would come in for Moeen. Pretty sure he's there for experience and possibly to play at Sydney.

If Mo got injured they would get someone from the Lions squad. Crane can't bat so we would lose a batter as well if he plays.

Why no Plunkers in the squad? We MUST have pace and a bit of fire. Tremlett the gentle giant shook them up in 2010.
Report King of Dubai October 4, 2017 4:44 PM BST
They will probably fly in Gareth Batty if Moeen gets injured.
Report hologon October 4, 2017 4:45 PM BST
Pattinson out of Aus team
Report mafeking October 4, 2017 6:20 PM BST
foakes is a ludicrous selection as well. if they really wanted him in the squad surely he should have played some sort of cricket for england this summer. buttler had to be there if bairstow goes down the day before/morning of the match
Report Fatslogger October 5, 2017 8:10 PM BST

Oct 4, 2017 -- 6:20PM, mafeking wrote:

foakes is a ludicrous selection as well. if they really wanted him in the squad surely he should have played some sort of cricket for england this summer. buttler had to be there if bairstow goes down the day before/morning of the match

I'd say that Foakes is likely to be a far better test batsman than Buttler, with a rather strong FC record, as opposed to Buttler, who barely plays any longer form cricket. I agree that it's a bit of a punt taking him in the context of no international experience though. 

Pattinson out injured for the foreseeable is quite a loss for Australia, in that while it's still a very fine pace attack if they can play Starc, Hazelwood and Cummins, all three of them are at least somewhat injury prone and it promotes Coulter-Nile, who's fine but hardly great, to first reserve and I'm not even sure who goes to second reserve. Bird?

Report mafeking October 5, 2017 10:34 PM BST
they're banking a lot on starc, hazelwood and cummins who has only played 5 tests 2 of which were against bangladesh. hardly concrete form in the book

england have 3 or 4 holes in the side but it's very ordinary australian team
Report Fatslogger October 5, 2017 10:45 PM BST
I think if the decent quicks stay fit they’ve got enough to cover for some slightly dodgy batting and still be at least a notch or two better than England but I do agree that it’s not like Hazelwood, Starc and especially Cummins have exactly proven themselves as consistently top class test performers just yet. More importantly, all of them are made out of balsa wood and we could easily see a rather makeshift looking attack out there.
Report Injera October 6, 2017 6:24 PM BST
How many of their team get into ours?

Starc, Warner and Smith are the only 3 I can come up with.
Report mafeking October 6, 2017 6:50 PM BST
bit harsh that, injera. i would go cook, warner, smith, root, khawaja, handscomb, stokes, bairstow, moeen, starc, anderson

handscomb has made a very decent start to his test career albeit from a small sample of games. khawaja has done well recently in australia. that said i wouldn't fancy either of them to get a run if it was in england but it isn't. lyon's not so superior as a spinner that you can leave moeen out. in any event he's one of england's top 3 players in my book
Report Injera October 6, 2017 7:01 PM BST
4 bowlers?

I'd go

Report Try My Best October 6, 2017 10:25 PM BST
Injera you are a moron and your post about who would get in the english side proves that beyond doubt.
Report Whisperingdeath October 9, 2017 8:40 AM BST
I would have Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins in front of any England bowler in Aus/

I hope someone comes to their senses and Stokes flys out. At least someone in the Police should have the intelligence to sort this out for the greater good of the nation. A thug got beat up BFD! Let the games go on FFS!

I do think this series could be hard to predict and will swing back and forth within matches.
Report pxb October 9, 2017 8:53 AM BST
While I initially thought this would be quite an even ashes, without Stokes it's definitely advantage Aus.

I watched Starc play in a domestic one dayer. He was good, but not the Starc of old.
Report Whisperingdeath October 9, 2017 10:13 AM BST
Well Starc is the real spearhead for me. If he is not at his best England have a chance of getting runs and attritionalising the Aus attack. Bird and Coulter-Nile are playable.

The fourth seamer for both teams is a problem. The workload for three fast bowlers I suggest will be too much even against two batting units with huge holes!

Personally I think the England batting is long enough to accomodate Finn or I would rather hope Wood by dropping 2,3 or 5. Finn or Wood will probably score as many runs as the dropped batsman!
Report Injera October 9, 2017 3:51 PM BST
Starc in Australia:

17 Matches. 74 wickets at 29. Economy 3.46.

Hazlewood in Austraila:

15 Matches. 65 wickets at 25. Economy 2.71.

Cummins has played 5 Tests, all away. 21 wickets at 25.
Report mafeking October 9, 2017 4:33 PM BST
this fearsome aussie pace attack definitely being overrated. done nothing recently to suggest they are a particularly formidable proposition even on home soil. got outbowled by philander, rabada and kyle abbott Laugh only last winter

with home advantage they've still gotta be favourites but not by so much. england are clearly the better side
Report pxb October 10, 2017 10:25 PM BST
Aus down to 1.81 for the 1st Test. It's still not clear if Stokes will tour or not.
Report Fatslogger October 12, 2017 10:47 AM BST
I’m not wild about England’s prospects this Ashes but 1.8 or so seems a rather tight price for an Aus side with its own weaknesses. I’d back Aus happily at that price with Stokes missing (which now looks very highly likely)and all of Hazelwood, Starc and Cummins fit but based on their injury histories, that’s not especially likely. The drop off in quality to Bird or NCN would be quite significant I think, especially in a four man attack, where the weakest link is still pretty critical. I really rate Hazelwood but his miserly style works better if the other bowlers are hard to attack.

Anyway, have got an early lay in at 1.8 and will look to trade the draw in due course.
Report pxb October 12, 2017 10:53 PM BST
I wish the cops would decide one way or the other on charging Stokes. Whether he goes or not will move the markets significantly.
Report mafeking October 12, 2017 11:00 PM BST
already moved more than 10 ticks since the news broke. pretty much assumed already he won't be travelling
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