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jucel69
19 Mar 17 21:46
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Date Joined: 03 Aug 12
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Current forecast is for rain, rain and more rain.
First four days look horrific.
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Replies: 2,994
By:
tyco161
When: 19 Mar 17 21:57
Im taking that with a grain of salt so far. The NZ 10 day forecast always has rain in it and is so unreliable its not funny. Anyone offer me sub 2's on the draw and I will be laying it with my house.
By:
pxb
When: 19 Mar 17 22:26
The rain is partially confirmed by other forecasts, but NZ is like the UK and forecasts 5 or 6 days out are unreliable as Tyco says.

I did some hoovering of early prices and now a case of keeping an eye on the forecast.
By:
DAN1974
When: 19 Mar 17 22:55
i feel like i need to get involved with this rain play but i dont want to make a huge mistake, perhaps a medium sized lay of SA is the way forward.
By:
pxb
When: 19 Mar 17 23:03
If we get a result in 3 (full) days of play, which isn't uncommon in Hamilton, I'd expect it too be a SAF win.
By:
DAN1974
When: 19 Mar 17 23:08
yes, i agree with that but if the forecast is wrong it would be easier for me to get out of a SA lay without much damage.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 19 Mar 17 23:36
Had a lucky escape from leaving a big draw lay up around 4 at a point when the forecast looked good. Checked a different forecast with NZ Met just in time, although agree that it's very unreliable indeed this far out. May just wait now, with a few pounds of draw lay I got taken.
By:
DAN1974
When: 20 Mar 17 00:39
ive layed SA at 2.36, that will do for now, if the forecast is wrong i will just red out for a loss and then look to claw it back.
By:
tyco161
When: 20 Mar 17 01:44
Taylor out, Boult might be in. NZ have same squad as for Wellington test. Does not bode too well for NZ. Batting will look just as fragile.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/cricket/90610342/ross-taylor-ruled-out-of-third-test-trent-boult-likely-to-return-as-black-caps-name-unchanged-squad-for-hamilton
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Mar 17 04:37
If the forecast stays the same and comes to fruition, it's a straight 1.01 train & I want to be on board.
Worth the risk imo
By:
pxb
When: 20 Mar 17 05:55
If the forecast stays the same and comes to fruition, it's a straight 1.01 train & I want to be on board.
Worth the risk imo


That's my view as well. If the forecast improves, I'll just have to scramble, but I have done well in recent weeks.

I'm a bit surprised the draw is holding at 2.7.
By:
tyco161
When: 20 Mar 17 06:02
A matter of watching the forecast and acting accordingly. I might have a nibble at the high 2's after all and like pxb says... scramble if needed. Again it is worthy to note NZ 5 days and over is unreliable as a European poll.
By:
tyco161
When: 20 Mar 17 06:03
from the metservice: Forecasts and temperatures for days 1-5 are produced by MetService meteorologists. Forecasts and temperatures for days 6-10 are automatically generated by MetService's computer weather modelling system.
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Mar 17 11:18
Just been updated, still looks the same
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Mar 17 11:54
Draw on the move
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Mar 17 11:58
All of a sudden 10k comes in to stop the freefall
By:
DAN1974
When: 20 Mar 17 12:20
Someone thinks the forecast is wrong.
By:
pxb
When: 20 Mar 17 12:37
I think the forecast is wrong, but not by enough to produce a result probably.
By:
DAN1974
When: 20 Mar 17 17:04
still rain forecast for all 5 days on metservice
By:
Fatslogger
When: 20 Mar 17 17:11
I've stuck a load down at 2.6, twice. If it's overcast and swingy but no rain on day 1 we could see a lot of wickets and a very high draw price (Hobart Aus SA test being a recent example of not nearly rain affected enough to stop a result test) so could be regrettable getting on now but think it's worth the risk.
By:
Steam
When: 20 Mar 17 17:40
Starting with a lay of Saffers , yes they won it on a canter but not before NZ had them in all sorts of trouble. Little scared to lay draw with that weather forecast.
By:
jucel69
When: 20 Mar 17 18:57

Mar 20, 2017 -- 11:11AM, Fatslogger wrote:


I've stuck a load down at 2.6, twice. If it's overcast and swingy but no rain on day 1 we could see a lot of wickets and a very high draw price (Hobart Aus SA test being a recent example of not nearly rain affected enough to stop a result test) so could be regrettable getting on now but think it's worth the risk.


Yeh and if I remember correctly, there were quite a few chances to get out with minimal losses throughout the match.
Even when Aus were 3/4 down in the first inns the odds were slightly over evens, & then when a day was wiped out it traded in the 2s again.
14/15 wickets fell on the first day too!
The looming threat of rain always keeps the odds down, even if a result looks a distinct possibility.

By:
tyco161
When: 20 Mar 17 20:03
Im a little surprised at the price action. Woke up to see the rain on Saturday confirmed and the next 4 days looking just as bleak. So to see the draw higher than 2.60 is interesting in itself. For me the closer to the test and the current forecast is confirmed then the draw should come in. Time to nibble again and back the draw.
By:
pxb
When: 20 Mar 17 20:10
A lot will depend on how wet Saturday is. I currently think we will get some rain, but wouldn't like to say how much. Significant rain and the forecast for Sunday and Monday staying wet, draw will go very short. We would have to see quite an improvement in the forecast all 3 days for the draw to roar out. But I've seen NZ forecasts go from wet all day to dry all day the night before, and took a major bath in a Test at Hamilton or Auckland (I forget which) when that happened.
By:
DAN1974
When: 20 Mar 17 20:13
I'm amazed the draw is'nt lower TBH, ive got more on the draw now as well, i'm up to the point where it will be complete panic stations if the forecast is wrong. there is obviously a lot of people who dont trust the forecast
By:
tyco161
When: 20 Mar 17 20:15
gee you are up early there pxb. I know what you mean about the forecasts. Anything more than 5 days out I do not trust here. That is why for me when things get confirmed within the 5 day time frame it gives some comfort. That said, even within the 5 days NZ forecasts are notoriously dodgy.
By:
pxb
When: 20 Mar 17 20:19
gee you are up early there pxb.

Betting on Test matches will give you odd sleeping patterns.
By:
tyco161
When: 20 Mar 17 20:23
I know what you mean. I do all nighters with the French open and Wimbledon. 2 weeks in a row and a wreck afterwards.
I am tempted to go to Hamilton for this test with all the water around and in the forecast but other commitments may thwart that. On the draw initially and will see where it goes. I am comfortable on the draw at this stage. ANy hint of water around and the draw should fail to go above 5 initially anyway. So its the risk/reward I like in this trade.
By:
detraveller
When: 20 Mar 17 20:27
Just checked the last 5 games at the ground.

Only 4 scores of 300+. Fast bowlers taking wickets(except a Narine 6fer). With overcast conditions, shouldn't the bowlers get even more help?

Only 1 of those 5 tests got to day 5, because of rain. Should have been a draw(hit 1.1) but it was Pakistan batting last. 2 games ended on day 3 and 2 on day 4.
By:
tyco161
When: 20 Mar 17 20:41
The WI one though could have easily been a draw, but as the WI are bound to do they collapsed like a sack of empty potatoes.
By:
DAN1974
When: 20 Mar 17 20:46
most of those games involved a 2nd innings collapse, the first innings scores were decent enough. As long as we dont get something silly like 15 wickets on the first day and that big block of rain hits the draw will go very low, surely !?
By:
pxb
When: 20 Mar 17 20:57
Tyco, do you know what the drainage is like at Hamilton?
By:
tyco161
When: 20 Mar 17 21:20
Hi pxb, not off the top of my head no, but I do think its pretty good. Nothing springs out that its not good if that makes sense.
By:
tyco161
When: 20 Mar 17 21:22
looks like they had an upgrade in 2005 to fix drainage issues: http://www.seddonpark.com/47/about/history/upgrades-at-seddon-park
By:
pxb
When: 20 Mar 17 21:31
Thanks. I've been killed a couple of times this year by wet outfields. Not that I anticipate going red on the draw.
By:
Steam
When: 20 Mar 17 21:57
Wasnt it Hamilton recently which was deemed not fit for test?
By:
pxb
When: 20 Mar 17 22:10
It was Napier where a match was abandoned due a wet outfield. An ODI I recall.
By:
pxb
When: 20 Mar 17 22:12
Saturday looking overcast, but not too wet. But Wednesday now looking pretty wet. But a long way off.
By:
Steam
When: 20 Mar 17 22:16
Possible 3 days of wash out with the current forecast but still far off ..
By:
DAN1974
When: 20 Mar 17 22:17
it depends which website you look at PXB , metservice has showers on friday afternoon and rain saturday, sunday and monday.
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