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tyco161
12 Mar 17 22:30
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Date Joined: 03 Dec 04
| Topic/replies: 3,183 | Blogger: tyco161's blog
Ok looks like this one will not be weather interrupted. Maybe a few lingering showers on wed morning. We have had a lot of rain in the last 2 days (60mm where I live 45km north of wellington) so the pitch may be on the fresh side. Lay of the draw for me at 4's to start with.
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Pause Switch to Standard View NZ v South Africa 2nd Test in Wellington
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Report DAN1974 March 17, 2017 12:03 AM GMT
Have South Africa got something booked for monday ? they seem in a rush to get this game finished.
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 12:06 AM GMT
I'm in a sticky position here and have resorted to averaging! :-(
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 12:09 AM GMT
Have backed Saffers as high as 3.25..........but can't hold onto that or I'm in maximum loss territory if more wickets fall quickly!

We Saffer backers are not doomed, parity is still doable!
Report pxb March 17, 2017 12:09 AM GMT
I got a couple of draw lays in, and have a small all green.

Might be a bit of weather action tomorrow.
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 12:13 AM GMT
My Scratch Price ( being Redless) is now 2.14 Saffers and it's not that far away!
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 12:43 AM GMT
For the position they are in Saffers are very short, this market love for them can pull my chestnuts out of the fire. C'mon 25 more runs might do it!
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 12:46 AM GMT
As with previous test, market becomes gappy after lunch as brits head to slumber.
Report pxb March 17, 2017 1:13 AM GMT
I'm starting to like SAF for the win.
Report Foinavon March 17, 2017 1:15 AM GMT
Have cashed out, will see what tomorrow brings.
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2017 1:19 AM GMT
looks like any lead may be minimal.........
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2017 1:20 AM GMT
Would have liked to get some of that flash draw 20s price
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2017 1:28 AM GMT
tired bowlers going for some
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 1:33 AM GMT
Saffer got matched at 2.5 seconds ago!
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 1:34 AM GMT
That 7K at 1.98 wish it would hurry up and be eaten or buzz off!
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2017 1:37 AM GMT
60 odd in ten..........Grin
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 1:42 AM GMT
It;s finally gone :-)
Report ayt March 17, 2017 1:42 AM GMT
what a legend de **** is...
Report ayt March 17, 2017 1:43 AM GMT
de Cockk
Report ayt March 17, 2017 1:50 AM GMT
Temba show me ur Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 1:57 AM GMT
QDK has done me a right good turn here, if he fell cheaply I was BURIED!...as it is I'm sitting pretty!
Report peckerdunne March 17, 2017 2:06 AM GMT
Cool
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 2:13 AM GMT
Pakistan in particular should Go To School on QDK approach when in a hole, they badly need some of that, though of course QDK's don't grow on trees!
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 2:54 AM GMT
Just got home from my daily walk & as I walked through the day, the radio said 40/1.
Stomach dropped,then I realised it was NZ domestic cricket.
Turned on the computer and Love
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 3:03 AM GMT
Chance of showers tomorrow and getting windy. Never easy to bowl in Welly when it gusts.
Apparently Wellington has gale force gusts over 200 days per year!
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 3:17 AM GMT
maybe chance showers but what I am seeing today... no rain tomorrow whatsoever. That said, Wellington weather can change dramatically. But I do not think they are going to lose any time tomorrow or at worst half an hour or so. Wind aids in drying of outfield etc as well. Forecast for Sun and Mon is good too. So we should have a result but NZ can bat well in their second dig as the pitch is playing better and the draw is not out of it yet.
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 3:18 AM GMT
I exited at 1.68 an hour ago!
Report Cardinal Scott March 17, 2017 3:21 AM GMT
A|ll the gelatine in the midget gems I've been scoffing has probably made me more awake than I should be at 3.20am so will be looking for some India Aus action for the 1st time this series.
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 4:03 AM GMT
All the liquidity suddenly sucked out of the market!
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 4:15 AM GMT
De K and Bavuma - both batted well, but two more poor shots
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 4:17 AM GMT
Along with duminy and Faf. So 4 bad shots amoung the top batsmen. Should have had so much more runs on what is a very good batting pitch. THis game could still have NZ get say 400 in their second dig and put SA under pressure.
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 4:22 AM GMT

Mar 17, 2017 -- 5:17AM, tyco161 wrote:


Along with duminy and Faf. So 4 bad shots amoung the top batsmen. Should have had so much more runs on what is a very good batting pitch. THis game could still have NZ get say 400 in their second dig and put SA under pressure.


agree ,time for KW to go big, he can do on this deck as he will not give his wicket away

Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 4:29 AM GMT
Another terrible shotSad
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 4:32 AM GMT
Yep but admittedly a tail ender so I can forgive him for that. NZ batting again tonight could be interesting few overs.
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 4:34 AM GMT
No need to play extravagant shots, the pitch is a beauty. Just make the bowler bowl to you. Angry
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 4:38 AM GMT
Like Bavuma did about all his innings till he got this brain fart. Or like Nichols did for NZ. No need to chase the ball.
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 4:54 AM GMT
If the tail can bat like this against the new ball then surely the top order needs to do so much better.
Report PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH March 17, 2017 4:19 PM GMT
Saffers may well win the test match but not for me at current levels 1.54, might get showers today and think NZ will bat reasonably well in the second innings Happy
Report fatboy March 17, 2017 4:49 PM GMT
I thought the same i see there are some on the forecast and everytime they don't look much and they seem to hang around and i end up doing my money and now the 1.51 looks low!
Report nigel no idea March 17, 2017 7:06 PM GMT
wellington pitch  third day should be a chance for big runs draw drifted to 7.2  some value to back then lay i hope. cannot c the weather helping
Report Fatslogger March 17, 2017 8:31 PM GMT
I've followed the draw up even getting some 7.6, although the 6s look less good. I'm not in too much danger of a big loss as if Kiwis bat welll my draw green will come into play and I'll get the red off them, mostly at least. I'm close to level on SA so a few more runs from the last wicket to bring them and draw in would be lovely.
Report pxb March 17, 2017 8:44 PM GMT
I think there is a decent chance we will see the draw go to 5 today. Not that I expect a draw.
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:15 PM GMT
draw from 5.9 overnight to almost 10s
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:36 PM GMT
Hoping to see some measured batting
Report Fatslogger March 17, 2017 10:36 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2017 -- 11:15PM, jucel69 wrote:


draw from 5.9 overnight to almost 10s


I know. I've been buying it all the way up and it just keeps climbing. All that happened was a tailender was out and it went from around 8 to 10. My relatively safe position is now vulnerable to SA taking wickets because a comedy £23k draw green won't do me much good if Kiwis are 3 down by lunch and I'm very definitely not green on SA any more. There's even a nightmare scenario whereby SA takes wickets regularly enough that the draw never makes it down at all but they get enough runs to threaten to win. It's the usual business of never thinking a game will be drawn (well, not since the Kiwis fell apart early on) but still potentially losing piles backing the draw.

Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 10:38 PM GMT
i got some draw at 9's, hoping nz apply which will see draw down to 4-5
Report Fatslogger March 17, 2017 10:38 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2017 -- 11:36PM, jucel69 wrote:


Hoping to see some measured batting


Measured batting and the odd bowling injury would suit nicely. If the South Africans could avoid taking any stunning catches, ideally taking any catches at all, that would also help.

Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:40 PM GMT
God, Latham is crap!
Report Fatslogger March 17, 2017 10:40 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2017 -- 11:38PM, tyco161 wrote:


i got some draw at 9's, hoping nz apply which will see draw down to 4-5


If the draw gets down to 4s I'm quids in but Latham of course gets out like an idiot.

Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 10:41 PM GMT
Latham was not really factored into my calcs... I am only giving him a 15 run start at the moment.
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:42 PM GMT
Why on earth would an opener play that ballCrazy with 4 slips
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:43 PM GMT
Latham's wicket hasn't moved the market muchLaugh KW's will send it to orbit!
Report Fatslogger March 17, 2017 10:43 PM GMT
Oh on bright side, my lay at 8 after I failed to resist some 9.8 was taken just before the wicket.

Market has just remember it was only Latham out. Firm push at a ball outside off going across him doesn't look any better the more often you see it.
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:46 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2017 -- 11:43PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Oh on bright side, my lay at 8 after I failed to resist some 9.8 was taken just before the wicket. Market has just remember it was only Latham out. Firm push at a ball outside off going across him doesn't look any better the more often you see it.


a number 11 shot, he needs to be sent packing. In home conditions, inexcusable!

Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 10:46 PM GMT
Latham needs to go back to domestic cricket and find his mojo. A year ago he was looking very good.
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:47 PM GMT
Morkel has never bought a ball back in his life so he can leave those all day ffs
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 10:53 PM GMT
ouch for NZ
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:53 PM GMT
Game over
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:55 PM GMT
no hotspot or snicko?
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 10:56 PM GMT
there was a hotspot
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:56 PM GMT
yeh just a little nick
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 10:56 PM GMT
a very tiny one but I could see it on my 50 inch screen
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:56 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2017 -- 11:56PM, tyco161 wrote:


there was a hotspot


I'm listening on the radio in bed so they weren't sureCrazy

Report Fatslogger March 17, 2017 10:57 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2017 -- 11:53PM, jucel69 wrote:


Game over


Just what I was about to say. I've turned a very useful position into a grand loss this game. Without Williamson the market will refuse to believe in the draw even if there's a big stand (which there probably won't be without him) so there's even the potential disaster for me of the Kiwis sneaking up to a lead of a couple of hundred and defending it. Don't really see it though.

Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:57 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2017 -- 11:57PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Mar 17, 2017 -- 10:53PM, jucel69 wrote:Game overJust what I was about to say. I've turned a very useful position into a grand loss this game. Without Williamson the market will refuse to believe in the draw even if there's a big stand (which there probably won't be without him) so there's even the potential disaster for me of the Kiwis sneaking up to a lead of a couple of hundred and defending it. Don't really see it though.


you got a massive NZ red?

Report Fatslogger March 17, 2017 10:58 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2017 -- 11:57PM, jucel69 wrote:


Mar 17, 2017 -- 10:57PM, Fatslogger wrote:Mar 17, 2017 -- 10:53PM, jucel69 wrote:Game overJust what I was about to say. I've turned a very useful position into a grand loss this game. Without Williamson the market will refuse to believe in the draw even if there's a big stand (which there probably won't be without him) so there's even the potential disaster for me of the Kiwis sneaking up to a lead of a couple of hundred and defending it. Don't really see it though.you got a massive NZ red?


Well I'm past the days where I call just under £5k massive but pretty large, yes.

Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 10:58 PM GMT
rabadaba hasn't bowled yet either!
Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 11:00 PM GMT

Mar 17, 2017 -- 11:58PM, Fatslogger wrote:


Mar 17, 2017 -- 10:57PM, jucel69 wrote:Mar 17, 2017 -- 10:57PM, Fatslogger wrote:Mar 17, 2017 -- 10:53PM, jucel69 wrote:Game overJust what I was about to say. I've turned a very useful position into a grand loss this game. Without Williamson the market will refuse to believe in the draw even if there's a big stand (which there probably won't be without him) so there's even the potential disaster for me of the Kiwis sneaking up to a lead of a couple of hundred and defending it. Don't really see it though.you got a massive NZ red?Well I'm past the days where I call just under £5k massive but pretty large, yes.


Saffers would chase even 300 easily imo,but I know how the minds play tricks when the money is on the table!

Report Fatslogger March 17, 2017 11:03 PM GMT

Mar 18, 2017 -- 12:00AM, jucel69 wrote:


Mar 17, 2017 -- 10:58PM, Fatslogger wrote:Mar 17, 2017 -- 10:57PM, jucel69 wrote:Mar 17, 2017 -- 10:57PM, Fatslogger wrote:Mar 17, 2017 -- 10:53PM, jucel69 wrote:Game overJust what I was about to say. I've turned a very useful position into a grand loss this game. Without Williamson the market will refuse to believe in the draw even if there's a big stand (which there probably won't be without him) so there's even the potential disaster for me of the Kiwis sneaking up to a lead of a couple of hundred and defending it. Don't really see it though.you got a massive NZ red?Well I'm past the days where I call just under £5k massive but pretty large, yes.Saffers would chase even 300 easily imo,but I know how the minds play tricks when the money is on the table!


I'm genuinely not that worried. I'd be very happy to lay NZ at 6s if I didn't already have a pile on. They'd need another 250 runs even to think about being able to defend their total barring absurdities and even 250 would be a vey very gettable chase on this against a not particularly terrifying attack.

Report jucel69 March 17, 2017 11:04 PM GMT
yeh and there is a very good chance they don't even get 300 runs in the second dig
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 11:05 PM GMT
Can NZ claw back from here. It has been a new ball pitch and if NZ can get through the first 30 overs then there are some runs to be had...
Report pxb March 17, 2017 11:15 PM GMT
I've been very cautious on this, and am all green for less than 100.
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 11:27 PM GMT
can someone convince me not to lay nz and back the draw as a "risk free" strategy?
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 11:27 PM GMT
i understand if nz get rolled for 250 and that leaves a tricky 150 for SA to get but even then...
Report Fatslogger March 17, 2017 11:29 PM GMT

Mar 18, 2017 -- 12:27AM, tyco161 wrote:


can someone convince me not to lay nz and back the draw as a "risk free" strategy?


It's no time risk free but I don't see it going wrong.

Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 11:30 PM GMT
I know its not risk free but I think its a good trade.
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 11:30 PM GMT
cheers Fatslogger
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 11:32 PM GMT
right layed plenty NZ at 5.4 and got on the draw at 15. time will tell
Report tyco161 March 17, 2017 11:34 PM GMT
already well in the money. Time to take some soon.
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 12:06 AM GMT
Surely the coaches should have a word with Raval about ducking the ball. Why try and play balls you can duck under? The bounce is consistent. The mind boggles sometimes
Report tyco161 March 18, 2017 12:38 AM GMT
what is happening in the market? NZ go out and draw comes in  over lunch. Surely not rain in the air? forecast for .2 mm but that is nothing and plenty of wind to blow it away.
Report tyco161 March 18, 2017 12:45 AM GMT
comms just saying the clouds to the south are a bit darker and threatening looking... must have spooked the market.
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 1:01 AM GMT
3 wickets to wide balls, been a very poor display from the Kiwis
Report tyco161 March 18, 2017 1:03 AM GMT
yeah ruined a nice book but oh well :)
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 1:22 AM GMT
Becoming embarrassing now tbf
Report tyco161 March 18, 2017 1:26 AM GMT
this is just not even funny. Might have the afternoon off after all.
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 1:26 AM GMT
What a handjob Neesham isLaugh
Report tyco161 March 18, 2017 1:30 AM GMT
raval must be just shaking his head at the other end. He is the only one with any sort of application.
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 1:33 AM GMT
Raval has going at sr of 50 & he's just picking off the loose balls. Neesham bottled that imo
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 1:34 AM GMT
*is
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 1:34 AM GMT
That's why Neesham will never succeed, weak as piss
Report tyco161 March 18, 2017 1:38 AM GMT
Neesham really needs to go. Watling at least has some battle and bottle.
Report the whizz kids March 18, 2017 2:07 AM GMT
3 things certain in life, Death, Tax/Premium charge and losing a trade on New Zealand batting. N.Z have cost me sh1t loads in the past when batting as I kept on thinking they will get it right. Thankfully I never got involved in this match.
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 2:28 AM GMT
Making the two spinners look like Ravi & Sir J on an absolute Tina.
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 2:37 AM GMT
Looks too cold to drink beer, need a nice glass of red or a drop of brandy
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 3:24 AM GMT
Another thing the batsmen should be aware of is the forecast is better tomorrow re clear skies. Should just be trying to get through the next few hours.
Report jucel69 March 18, 2017 3:52 AM GMT
Simpleton Southee does it againCrazy
Report Fatslogger March 18, 2017 10:46 AM GMT

Mar 18, 2017 -- 3:07AM, the whizz kids wrote:


3 things certain in life, Death, Tax/Premium charge and losing a trade on New Zealand batting. N.Z have cost me sh1t loads in the past when batting as I kept on thinking they will get it right. Thankfully I never got involved in this match.


Yep, this was a urinating your cash away thinking that the Kiwis might make something of a flat deck groundhog day. I was a bit ill disciplined getting quite as much on the draw as I did but could have worked very nicely indeed if Williamson hadn't got a good ball early on or if Latham weren't a useless excuse for an opening batsman. The latter was a known position though so what I ought to have done, if insistent on backing the draw high, was wait for the SA innings to end and Latham to get out. All looks so obvious in retrospect.

Report pxb March 18, 2017 7:41 PM GMT
I have a fault, which is when I go all green early in a Test, I rarely take any risks, even when the outcome is pretty obvious, as with this match.
Report Foinavon March 18, 2017 7:54 PM GMT
Made a decent profit on this game, didn't expect to be paid so early! Happy
Report Fatslogger March 19, 2017 1:13 PM GMT

Mar 18, 2017 -- 8:41PM, pxb wrote:


I have a fault, which is when I go all green early in a Test, I rarely take any risks, even when the outcome is pretty obvious, as with this match.


I have lots of faults. I've largely eradicated that one, although here if I'd just tried to stay green on SA, always the likely outcome, I'd have been good. I overtraded a game that was too far developed for me to have a good chance of getting my position back if it went wrong. Hopefully lesson learned, although I though that that the several previous times I made a similar mistake.

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