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08 Jan 14 04:53
Date Joined: 29 May 06
| Topic/replies: 704 | Blogger: OzBattla's blog
One draw out of 6 tests here. Last 2 first Inns of tests have been All Out for 99, last one being against SAf, Steyn took 3 and Tahir 5!! Batting second again seems the place to be and losing the toss no disadvantage.

Think a small lay of the Draw might be the place to start.

GL All hope its a great test.
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Pause Switch to Standard View 2nd Test Pakistan v Sri Lanka - Dubai
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Report pxb January 8, 2014 5:02 AM GMT
Market got spooked by the forecast of showers and draw came in from 3.95 to 3.15. Should go back most of the way by play.
Report yashgupta January 8, 2014 5:42 AM GMT
SL win toss and bowl first
Report BJT January 8, 2014 6:19 AM GMT
How is losing the toss not a disadvantage if there is a clear benefit to batting second?
Report OzBattla January 8, 2014 6:35 AM GMT
Because a lot of teams like to bat when win the toss and dont like to send the other team in a stuff it so its taken out of their hands... Agree more a prevalent term to use in Aus and Saf, not in Asia
Report posy January 8, 2014 5:50 PM GMT
222 runs,11 wickets on day 1.......on the face of things a lay at 6.5 seems a good thing however i've no idea of the weather in Dubai.Does rain ever stop play ?
Report OzBattla January 8, 2014 8:07 PM GMT
Bizarrely there has been a little rain in the last week, however its extremely rare. Rain wont be a factor. Pitch may flatten out tho, draw not totally out of play imo.
Report stickon January 9, 2014 12:46 AM GMT
Rain wont be any kind of issue
I layed the draw pre off and  greened up at an average of 7
Trying to back the draw further now at around 8 for trading purposes because  its only day one and if SL go big 1st dig the draw will be much lower
Report pxb January 9, 2014 5:12 AM GMT
Anyone know if an early start?
Report OzBattla January 9, 2014 5:51 AM GMT
I am in the same  position Stickon, and think draw is value at $7... A few big partnership and I think it will trade lower again at some stage...
Report stickon January 9, 2014 9:50 AM GMT
Might have to retract my original comment on the weather.
The forecast is getting worse

Bad light could be more of an issue than the rain. Best keep the Draw well on side for now. Looks like LANKA are looking to very slowly bat PAK out of the game, and I mean very slowly!!
Report yashgupta January 9, 2014 10:20 AM GMT
today see the match and may be SL playing for draw because lankan play very slow
Report slicendale January 9, 2014 1:06 PM GMT
I don't know much about cricket but SL get to the end of the day with a large lead and declare. Provided they bowl Pakistan out before the end of day 4 they should win?
Report stickon January 9, 2014 11:37 PM GMT
Where are we going with this now Oz mate
Im still sat on my DRAW back at around 8 and the weather forecast is pretty grim Sat and Sun

LANKA must surely bat with the intention of only batting once. Could it be the draw trades odds on tomorrow night if the forecast is still poor??
Report pxb January 10, 2014 1:48 AM GMT
Don't have much confidence in the forecast, but enough uncertainty for me to finish with this. Modest green SL and draw, small red on Pak.
Report jucel69 January 10, 2014 4:03 AM GMT
You've got a moderate bowling attack (SL) against a moderate batting (PAK) 3rd innings on a flat deck. I'm pretty much trying to finish with this game after laying SL at 4.5 first innings!! and then almost clawing it all back by backing the draw at late 7's.
Report OzBattla January 10, 2014 4:35 AM GMT
Hey Stick, I am holding tight on big green for draw looking to get out and green up book at about evens, need this partnership to be real big, and then weather on the weekend...
Report peter64 January 10, 2014 7:42 AM GMT
anyone watching this ? hows pitch playing today ? tia
Report posy January 10, 2014 4:02 PM GMT
have just looked at Dubai weather for next couple of days and no suggestion of rain....assuming pakistan don't lose a wicket and score around 40 runs in first hour's play what price will SL be ?
Report Foinavon January 10, 2014 4:58 PM GMT
Can't see this going the distance without rain. That said the only predictable thing about games involving Pakistan is that they are unpredictable.
Green out early is my strategy, would think many others do the same.
Report pxb January 10, 2014 5:22 PM GMT
Foinavon, totally agree. Although I don't always follow my own good advice.

All green on this, but still trading a bit.
Report Foinavon January 10, 2014 7:13 PM GMT
There's still money to be made, but for me, the easy pickings have gone so I've walked away from the table.

During the Ashes series, someone said that it was like making regular visits to the cash-point and it was. This series is a different beast.
Report OzBattla January 10, 2014 8:36 PM GMT
Yeah managed to survive that scare yesterday Pak 3/20, thank god for Misbah and Younis. In saying that cant see them getting out of this match. My book is large Green Draw, Even SL and loss Pak. Happy to sit tight and let this one play out at this stage.
Report stickon January 10, 2014 10:08 PM GMT
Your right boys this is hard work after the Ashes
Ive got decent green LANKA and DRAW and small green PAK.
If I had half a brain I would back PAK at 10 and level my book up and just collect and call it a good weeks work.

The problem is I just cant really see a draw in this. PAK would have to bat another 80 overs tomorrow(allowing 10 for bad light) and they would be around 170 in front.Result one way or the other.  New ball in 30 overs and an England style tail I cant see PAK batting the day out for starters.

Someone please talk me down from laying the draw
Report oddduck January 10, 2014 10:42 PM GMT
having a nibble on lanka here, fancy a couple of wickets in the morning session
Report posy January 11, 2014 9:34 AM GMT
woken up to find my overnight back of SL at 2 was small profit draw/Pakistan and even SL....Can't see SL losing this now
Report maxstout January 11, 2014 9:52 AM GMT
Anything could happen guys. I have evened out with a green on all three eventualities of around £1,700.
Report OzBattla January 11, 2014 10:23 AM GMT
Crazy position to be in Max??? In such a great spot surely a bit of thought and opinion you could work your book into a great spot...
Report kt22 January 11, 2014 10:33 AM GMT
Hard going this series.Thanks Misbah and Younis for my green.Was looking down the barrel.
Report maxstout January 11, 2014 11:39 AM GMT

Jan 11, 2014 -- 10:23AM, OzBattla wrote:

Crazy position to be in Max??? In such a great spot surely a bit of thought and opinion you could work your book into a great spot...

Got to agree with you Oz. 99% of the time I am a cautious and steady trader and it has paid well over the long term. Could do much better but since my previous post the anything happens win has gone up to £1,800.

Report OzBattla January 11, 2014 11:45 AM GMT
Nice one mate, book is in a great position. I was a little bit tongue in cheek, but think you could move a little more one way or another to have a bigger fillup, but 99%, including myself would jump at your position.
Report maxstout January 11, 2014 11:51 AM GMT
Thanks for that. Hear what you say and acknowledge that most of us need a kick up the backside at times to get things done and to take chances (as I actually did in business for many years). Having said that, the 1% came into play recently and I lost £16,000 gubbing on the darts - in spite of which I am still in and out of the Premium Charge.
Report mistrzuniu January 11, 2014 8:17 PM GMT
whay draw is up??
Report Butchos123 January 12, 2014 1:08 AM GMT
draw crashed fro 3.4 to 2.9. rain?
Report pxb January 12, 2014 1:11 AM GMT
Bit of rain around the moment but should clear. I've been backing SL.
Report stickon January 12, 2014 1:23 AM GMT
Forecast has changed and  is for scattered showers most of the day pxb but didnt expect the draw to crash at this stage

Im plus just over 1k the draw and plus £500 the other two and was going to back SL to level them two up and disregard PAK

Maybe should be backing the draw

Need sleep soon as well
Report Butchos123 January 12, 2014 1:27 AM GMT
i had a dabble on the draw. +/- draw if Pak hold out for a session it could easily end up that way.
Report Butchos123 January 12, 2014 1:27 AM GMT
* +/- rain
Report stickon January 12, 2014 1:32 AM GMT
Expect to be looking at weather forecast at Headingley and trying to second guess them not chuffing Dubai!!!

This could still finish with either of the three results. If it doesnt rain and PAK add another 60 on they could turn SL over . 20 PAK looks a bit silly!!
Report jucel69 January 12, 2014 1:39 AM GMT
I'm starting to make a pig's ear out of thisAngry
Report stickon January 12, 2014 1:43 AM GMT
This doesnt look that good

Proceed with caution!!
Report jucel69 January 12, 2014 1:47 AM GMT
I'm going draw as PAK are 107 ahead, should be some rain during the day. My mate lives in Dubai so he's going to be giving me updates when he wakes up!!
Report jucel69 January 12, 2014 1:48 AM GMT
I hate backing the draw, it's like torture!
Report jucel69 January 12, 2014 1:48 AM GMT
Every ball becomes an event. Much prefer laying the draw. Just my mindset really
Report stickon January 12, 2014 1:49 AM GMT
Ring him now and ask him to look outside :)

I need to go to bed
Report jucel69 January 12, 2014 1:50 AM GMT
he's lost his phone, waiting for updates on FB. He won't be up yet, he's not arsed about the game!
Report jucel69 January 12, 2014 1:50 AM GMT
any live webcams. I can't find any
Report jucel69 January 12, 2014 1:51 AM GMT
I don't know why I torture myself like this. I also do it a lot on completed matches ODI. They can be really stressful!
Report stickon January 12, 2014 2:01 AM GMT
Ive had a bit more draw at 2.88 and im going to bed shortly
Every forecast looks crap and and Im half expecting a flip flop whilst im in Noddy land
Report jucel69 January 12, 2014 3:51 AM GMT
mate says very wet & grim. Like an English autumn day. Take out of it what u want. He live 5 mins drive from the ground
Report pokeron January 12, 2014 4:22 AM GMT
pakistan have to get runs in the first session too as extra insurance. its a delicate balance. they cant just bat the session and get 20 runs as they can lose 3 for 2 any second. this match is beautifully poised.
Report pokeron January 12, 2014 6:20 AM GMT
i cat see pakistan bowling out lanka on this road. ajmal is looking good batting ffs.

the example they gave where pakistan won bowling out nz for 99 in the fourth nings was in hamilton and no team made over 300 in that match so totally diff to here which is a road.

pakistan looks a good lay right now.
Report mistrzuniu January 12, 2014 8:02 AM GMT
draw crash
Report stickon January 12, 2014 8:59 AM GMT
Opened my eyes at 7am and the draw is 50 so closed them again and an hour later it was 6

Its minus 5 degrees here on the Yorkshire coast stood in the garden doing a rain dance, neighbours thinks Ive gone nuts :)
Report stickon January 12, 2014 9:48 AM GMT
Lesson Number 24
Never trust a Dubai weather forecast
Report slip5 January 12, 2014 11:18 AM GMT
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