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irishone
12 Jun 18 10:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Sep 06
| Topic/replies: 40,325 | Blogger: irishone's blog
Broken my post cheltenham promise not to bet until jan 1st 2019 . Pat Kelly has one race in mind for this horse according  to those in the know at rossie last night. 6\1 is well worth a punt at this moment in time top up as the others fall away , it wont be 6\1 on the 15th march 2019 and you can still lay it off for profit
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Report impossible123 December 28, 2018 6:09 PM GMT
It is not uncommon to have differing opinions on horses, and it's healthy too. Nevertheless, I'll stick to mine regarding Monalee; his trainer might think differently. Then again the top flat trainer a Mr Aiden O'Brien did admit he got Saxon Warrior wrong running him in The Derby. 

Monalee is no Grade 1 3 miler in Ireland or here. But the unlucky horse was Road To Respect who managed to get within 1/2l of Monalee despite many lengths behind after the stumble two fences out; Monalee just plodded on at the same pace.
Report FOYLESWAR December 28, 2018 7:39 PM GMT
david mullins said " we went very very   slow and even when we took it up we still went slow ,every thing went to plan really and we just had to let him go .nothing took me on ,he jumped really well and ther is plenty to improve on  he could be a proper horse
Report FOYLESWAR December 28, 2018 7:42 PM GMT
of kemboy ^^
Report irishone December 28, 2018 9:27 PM GMT
Perhaps thats the difference between ejits who know feck all impossible and people  in the game who can admit their mistakes.
Monalee has earnt plenty from grade one chases in uk and ireland as well as grade 1 hurdles, winning over 220000
What planet are you on ?
Report impossible123 December 28, 2018 10:49 PM GMT
Is that how you respond whenever someone has a differing opinion to you ie throw the baby out with the bathwater?

Monalee had only won 1 Gde 3 hurdle race. And once he'd been beaten by Penhill over 3m I'd always laid him including the RSA - I backed him for the JLT - and had been doing so ever since including today. The horse clearly is no Gde 1 3 miler unless it's a walkover.

You may choose not to reply. However, if you do, and not reply in a civil manner I'll put you on 'ignore' as your opinions and behaviour are not appreciated by me as they do not reflect the purpose of what a forum is for.
Report irishone December 29, 2018 1:14 AM GMT
It's not called ignore it's called BLOCK

....but that's a factual statement the likes of which you keep ignoring !
Report cyclops December 29, 2018 8:50 AM GMT
Have to disagree about Native River, budd. I was amazed to see him shorten for the Gold Cup after a display that could charitably be called laboured.

Always something of a showboat, he's getting slower with age. While Kempton was never likely to be ideal, he was struggling to go the pace even going to the first and was never on the bridle.

No-one can take away a Gold Cup - won in fantastic fashion - but, while accepting it was a great race, it may still have been a substandard one. The heavy ground allowed Native River his one chance of a Gold Cup and he took it brilliantly but such conditions are most unlikely to recur. With Clan Des Obeaux and Kemboy both hugely impressive, there's a real chance that a new era is beckoning and Native River will struggle to compete against what seem to be much classier animals. And we still have Percy to stake a claim as well.
Report Hibore December 29, 2018 10:00 AM GMT
Much classier animals ? Clan Des Obeaux has been beaten in his last 4 races by horses including Native River and Thistlecrack ! It is far too soon to think he’s superior. He seemed suited by Kempton’s ground and track and probably improved 5lb -7lb on his Haydock 4th. Thistlecrack probably ran his race again and Native as expected found things happening much too quickly and ran a good stone under his rating.

The Gold Cup is a totally different test. Which on all evidence we have Native River is best equipped as he won last year and ran on strongly when totally outpaced on Weds.
Clan will need to run uphill for another 60 secs after the line at Kempton to put it into perspective.

I don’t really have a handle on Kemboy but he looks the best of the Irish by a nose from Road to Respect. Presenting Percy needs to strut his stuff before we can make a judgement but could be better than both of them.
Report irishone December 29, 2018 10:13 AM GMT
Spot on hibore.
Amazing how many people look at winter racing and take what they learn and apply it to spring racing.
Ranks alongside taking form from a flat galloping track onto an undulating roller coaster like cheltenham
Report buddeliea December 29, 2018 11:25 AM GMT
Cyclops
Yes its possible we have a new pecking order so to speak,but 2 runs by CDO and Kemboy aint enough for me to actually think that.
Yes history tells us to take notice of the KG and Lexus winners when looking at the Gold Cup,but also horses that run some of their best races at Cheltenham like NR who is still plenty young enough.
I know a lot subscribe to the fact the ground was in his favour and maybe not others(MB in particular)and no argument from me there,but I genuinely feel looking at his form that he would still have won on better ground.As I have said before I don't think he is ground dependant as much as people make out.He has some nice form on decent ground.
Just think hes a proper stayer with a touch of class and speed that enables him to dictate races at the right distances on the right course.
3 and a quarter miles at Cheltenham is perfect for him to do just that.
Haydock and Kempton over 3m are not.
Report irishone December 29, 2018 12:56 PM GMT
its his action budd , it shows you what a class horse he is winning on good and soft when he pounds the turf in front of him
Report duffy December 29, 2018 1:24 PM GMT
Neither CDO or Kemboy give me the feel that they'll be winning a GC.
Report impossible123 December 29, 2018 8:48 PM GMT
I think on the performances of Kemboy and CDO I'd side with the run of CDO in the King George as the more progressive and reliable because Thistlecrack (a good yardstick) ran above his chasing form jumping the best he'd in the past. Also, the run of anther solid yardstick in Native River gave further credence to the merit of CDO's performance.

I think Kemboy could still feature prominently in the Gold Cup, but the muddling pace of the Savill Chase and the troubled run of Road To Respect made me question his superiority somewhat; 8/1 is just too skinny.
Report irishone December 30, 2018 12:41 PM GMT
obviously a few good stayers about now monalee, delta work, road to riches, percy , blow by blow ….. but theres only one that loves cheltenham
Report irishone December 30, 2018 12:42 PM GMT
*respect obviously ….
Report duffy December 30, 2018 1:54 PM GMT
Imagine how many replies this thread would get if the fooker actually ran in a race.Grin
Report bigH December 30, 2018 8:33 PM GMT
Laugh
Report The Dragon December 31, 2018 3:06 PM GMT
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report impossible123 December 31, 2018 4:54 PM GMT
Presenting Percy (PP) and Laurina (L) both ought to get a room together; more chances of getting a sibling from them than seeing them on a racecourse at the moment. And I know PP is a gelding; immaculate conception!
Report foxy January 4, 2019 5:06 PM GMT
Irishone

Blow by blow LaughCrazy
Report irishone January 13, 2019 8:19 AM GMT

Nov 8, 2018 -- 3:41PM, Hibore wrote:


I think Irishone has had his fishing rod out.


No need to apologise lads !

Report irishone January 13, 2019 8:22 AM GMT
shockster • November 7, 2018 4:15 PM GMT

Does anyone know where/when Percy is going to start this season?


irishone • November 8, 2018 12:22 AM GMT

3 mile hurdle
Late jan early feb
Gowran
Report irishone January 14, 2019 10:15 AM GMT
Percy taking similar route as last year
Report irishone January 14, 2019 10:16 AM GMT
Irish gold cup  after gowran hurdle
Report foxy January 14, 2019 12:47 PM GMT
didnt run in the irish gold cup last year he raced against our duke in the red mills at gowran.
Report irishone January 14, 2019 6:33 PM GMT
Yes mate and it was a grade two in the guise of a grade one ,two and half in hvy at gowran is three at leppardstown.... So its a similar prep not a
Report irishone January 14, 2019 6:33 PM GMT
L
Report irishone January 14, 2019 6:34 PM GMT
Soz ...on train ..... Realise its not exactly the same
Report Hibore January 14, 2019 7:58 PM GMT
Really ? The Lord Lucan of racing misses every possible opportunity for the last 16 weeks and then runs twice in 2 weeks ?

My reading of the situation is similar to Waiting Patiently where the trainer is too scared to run in case the bubble bursts. WP could be the real deal as shown true Graded form but PP has it all to prove.
Report impossible123 January 14, 2019 8:15 PM GMT
PP beat a non-stayer in Monalee, and also started at 5/2 for the RSA; receiving 7lbs and beaten by Our Duke who was an out-and-out stayer over 20f; beaten by Jury Duty. His present price of 9/2 is outrageously short with no gain if winning his 1st outing, but implode if not. Yet, a racing journo still reckoned he could be value - is he for real?

I think PP is a fake fav, all things considered.
Report foxy January 15, 2019 9:08 AM GMT
dont wont to be picky hibore but there is 23 days between the two races not two weeks,

is elegant escape a non stayer ?
Report Hibore January 15, 2019 9:54 AM GMT
Isn't the Galmoy Hurdle on the 24th January and Irish Gold Cup on the 3rd Feb ?
Report foxy January 15, 2019 10:07 AM GMT
thats correct but i was referring to the galmoy and the red mills crossed wires somewhere.
Report Hibore January 15, 2019 10:24 AM GMT
irishone 

14 Jan 19 10:16 
Joined:   22 Sep 06      Irish gold cup  after gowran hurdle

Irish is the man in the know apparently....
Report foxy January 15, 2019 10:48 AM GMT
Don’t want to be picky hibore but that would be 10 days not two weeks Wink
Report Hibore January 15, 2019 11:47 AM GMT
That is being very picky. Laugh


Really ? The Lord Lucan of racing misses every possible opportunity for the last 16 weeks and then runs twice in 2 weeks ?
Report foxy January 15, 2019 12:24 PM GMT
The forecast for Gowran over the next 9 days doesn’t show much rain
Report sageform January 16, 2019 1:23 PM GMT
Just checked the 14 day forecast for Ireland and as you say, not much rain. So Why did Gary Moore just say they are expecting 50mm?
Report foxy January 16, 2019 1:31 PM GMT
Must admit sageform I thought the same perhaps he has a forecast on the days immediately prior to the fixture ,but as far as Gowran is concerned hardly any rain ,unthinkable for that fixture not to be run on at least soft ground.
Report foxy January 16, 2019 9:25 PM GMT
Sageform coc lorcan wear says he is expecting 40/50 mils rain over the next ten days
Report irishone January 17, 2019 12:16 AM GMT
Cant predict irish weather lads
Report irishone January 17, 2019 7:20 AM GMT
PP
whats he got to prpve.
Hes a dual cheltenham winner
Fact is
If he was at willies or gordons he would be much shorter
If he was at hendos hed be the second coming

You were given good info last november lads and mocked it
Report Hibore January 17, 2019 7:43 AM GMT
Irish, he’s still the same bonkers 6/1 as he was when you put the thread up. If he misses the Hurdle and Irish Gold Cup he’ll probably drift.
Report irishone January 17, 2019 10:24 AM GMT
over 5 g laid off on here at under 5's hibore CoolLaugh


wont miss gowran hurdle
Report irishone January 17, 2019 10:25 AM GMT
over 5 g laid off on here at under 5's hibore CoolLaugh


wont miss gowran hurdle
Report irishone January 17, 2019 1:50 PM GMT
Gowran would be a great indicator if the likes of any from willies stable like Bachasson ,Bapaume , Bleu Berry, Coquin Mans , Killultagh Vic , Limini or  Shaneshill fulfil their engagements.
Report impossible123 January 17, 2019 4:37 PM GMT
PP: Only Irish money, I believe. No sane person would back him at 9/2 or 5/1 (here); beaten nothing of note eg Monalee (33/1, 46 here); beaten by Our Duke receiving 7lbs; fake fav of the highest order. I only backed him because I knew Monalee (10/3) was a not stayer; 5/2 in a 10-runner race, was that a good thing especially the 2nd fav (a not stayer) was 10/3?

I'd not back PP with free money or a free bet.
Report Quevega06 January 17, 2019 7:14 PM GMT
Road To Respect seems the more sensible bet at this stage around 12s
Report irishone January 17, 2019 10:22 PM GMT
Monalee won over 2m 5f in hvy at clonmel .....
Report irishone January 17, 2019 10:25 PM GMT
Hasnt the non staying monalee beaten that we lsh national winner elegant escape ?
Report impossible123 January 17, 2019 11:15 PM GMT
A horse could beat any other horse if the horse it beat made a bad mistake at the crucial moment eg Might Bite in the Feltham.

Monalee does not stay a competitive Gd 1 chase in any country over 24f let alone 26.25f with an uphill finished; the Clonmel race was a Gd 3 hurdle.

Let me reiterate: Monalee does not stay a truly run Gd 1 3m chase let alone 3m 2.25f; he ought to have run in the JLT last season.
Report irishone January 18, 2019 9:11 AM GMT
Perhaps you could be kind enough
To explain
Exactly what barry ,his owner, and henry de bromhead
Have missed then
Because for some reason they keep entering monalee
In grade one staying chases ?

Obviously you have a briliant in depth knowledge of the sport and this horse in particular ExcitedLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report foxy January 18, 2019 10:58 AM GMT
18 entered for thursdays galmoy hurdle including presenting percy Happy
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 12:51 PM GMT
Monalee has had 7 races since going chasing.
4 of those over 3m, 3 over around 2 and a halfm.
He has won 2 out of those 7,both around 2 and a half.

Reading the form book suggests to me that Monalee could well be one that can stay 3m but is more comfortable at 2 and a halfm and that the lesser distance gives him more chance of winning.
Connections may well be seeing if they have a potential Gold Cup horse....fair enough,but I think they will end up with a Ryanair horse.

Ceratinly think the formbook shows enough for Impossibles comments not to be laughed at!!!
Report firstimevisor January 18, 2019 1:41 PM GMT
The form book shows that Monalee's best performance over hurdles came over 3 miles in the Albert Bartlett where he was 2nd to Penhill and ran to a mark of 153, his highest over hurdles.
His best performances over fences have been in the RSA when he was 2nd to PP and again when 2nd to Kenboy in the Lexus. Again,both of these came over 3 miles and he ran to a rating of 163 both times, his highest over fences.

How anyone can say he doesn't stay 3 miles is bizarre to say the least. He may have a better chance of winning a Ryanair but that's purely because the opposition won't be as strong, and has nothing whatsoever to do with him not staying 3 miles.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 1:55 PM GMT
Well its still fairly early days for his optimum distance to be found out for sure.
Yes his ratings I get, but a horse can get a higher rating running against better rated horses,but that don't mean that's his optimum distance.
We can read formbooks different to how others read them.
My feeling going forward is that Monalee will have more success running over his most comfortable distance,that distance where he produces his best and gives him his best chance of winning the best races at that distance.
I happen to think that will be around the 2 and a half m distance.
Hope I am wrong though, the more Gold Cup types the better imo.
Report firstimevisor January 18, 2019 2:00 PM GMT
So what's his best distance then - his best chance of winning or where he gives his best performances but may not win?
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 2:11 PM GMT
Laugh
Good question!!
For me its the best chance of winning.
I think given a bit more time,when connections know more,the horse will have both,or at least get the chance to have both......best chance of winning and giving his best performances.
Report firstimevisor January 18, 2019 2:15 PM GMT
But for now his best chance of winning and his best performances are over 2 different trips. Ok!!
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 2:25 PM GMT
Well yes, the formbook has his best rating at 3m over fences,and his 2 wins at around 2 and a halfm over fences.
Hes a horse just out of nov racing this season,they are running over different distances trying to find out about the horse, is how I see it.
Report firstimevisor January 18, 2019 2:39 PM GMT
I see it entirely differently.As with most horses, they run to more or less the same level whether the distance is 2m 4 or 800 odd yards further. The prestige distance is 3 miles so they will try him at that distance. If he comes up short of the very best at that distance, seeing as there is only room for so many at the top table, they will lower their sights a little and drop down to a distance where its easier to compete purely because the opposition isn't quite as strong.

So if he does fare better in a Ryanair than he would in a Gold Cup, it will be because they found the right opposition, not the right trip.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 3:10 PM GMT
Ok, so for you its all about the opposition rather than distance.

So, if you were a bookie and you were pricing up Monalee in two races...Ryanair and Gold Cup,both races NRNB,and both races with exactly the same horses.......you would have both races with exactly the same prices for all horses?
If so i would love to have a bet with you.
Report firstimevisor January 18, 2019 3:19 PM GMT
With most horses yes.Native River no but apart from one or 2 minor adjustments the others would be much the same price.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 3:35 PM GMT
Ok.
Currently NRNB you can get 7 Ryanair for Monalee,25 Gold Cup for Monalee.
How do you think those prices have been determined?
Report foxy January 18, 2019 3:47 PM GMT
I both hope and think he will go for the Ryanair however 25/1 with a run for the gold cup is a very fair price ,if he wins the Irish gold cup and connections decide to go for the gold cup he will be quite a bit shorter,if he fails to stay at the top level at leopardstown and they say Ryanair or even no Cheltenham which is unlikely then no damage done.
Report impossible123 January 18, 2019 4:14 PM GMT
The trainer of Monalee had been reported to say he'd try and convince the owner to run him in the Ryanair Chase; the trainer had also been reported to say he ran him in the wrong race at the last Festival.

In the RSA Monalee led 3 out, ridden and headed when mistake 2 out; just managed to finish infront of Elegant Escape who's an out-and-out-stayer who won the Welsh National over 3m 5f. I backed him for the JLT, but not the Ryanair this year because of Waiting Impatiently and Min. But he could win an egg-and-spoon race in Ireland over 3m though; Cotswold Chase or Gold Cup at Cheltenham - no way, in my opinion.
Report firstimevisor January 18, 2019 4:20 PM GMT
Obviously Monalee would have a better chance of winning the race with the least quality.That doesn't mean its his "preferred" distance.

My point,as I interpreted your 15.10 post, is to take a scenario that  Monalee was in the Gold Cup field and at the last minute it was decided to run the race instead over the Ryanair distance.Apart from the odd exception such as a dour stayer like Native River, the odds on the others chances would remain much the same ,relative to each other.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 4:34 PM GMT
My scenario was based on antepost prices.....eg prices now for March.

Not sure why the bookies are so differing in the price for Monalee NRNB for both races,but I suspect its because they think hes more likely to run in the Ryanair.......for whatever reason!!
Report firstimevisor January 18, 2019 5:01 PM GMT
Its very understandable really. The Gold Cup is a far better quality race than the Ryanair
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 5:25 PM GMT
It is a better quality race, but then its perfectly understandable that some horses have a better chance of winning a race better suited to them.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 5:29 PM GMT
I happen to think Monalee is better suited to winning the Ryanair because hes more likely to produce his best,than he would be over 3 and a quarter miles in a Gold Cup.
It appears I am not the only one if that's true what his trainer said.
Report Nogoody January 18, 2019 6:50 PM GMT
Trainers can be wrong as well. I can't think which trainer it was that constantly ran Sizing John over 2 miles.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 7:18 PM GMT
Yes,trainers can be wrong,especially with novice horses or those just out of novice company,but they are more likely to be right about their horses than we are.
In this case we have a horse that is being tried over 3m to see if it can be a 3 miler in good races and possible Gold Cup horse.
We can all have our opinions,and its good for discussion on here, but to find out whose opinions turn out to be more accurate, we have to wait and see what connections decide.
Report firstimevisor January 18, 2019 7:29 PM GMT
You've lost me now budd. I have no problem, no issue at all, whatever route they want to go with Monalee. Those decisions are not for us but for the trainer to make.

My position is consistent - good horses are versatile and have more than one distance. All national hunt horses are stayers. Some stay further than others. It takes a stayer to get 2 miles. Speed doesn't come into it but a change of gear at the business end does help.You can have 20 horses racing over 4 miles, they might all have no stamina issues but only one can win. That's the one with the biggest engine.

You seem hell-bent on putting each horse into a box with a label on it which will say 2 miler, 2 and a half miler or 3 miler,and then placing all these boxes into a neat little row. Un De Sceaux was a 2 miler not 2 and a half.Annie Power was a 2 miler not 3. Supersundae is a 3 miler not a 2 miler. Samcro is neither a hurdler nor a 2 miler(nor a 3 miler either!).Altior is an out and out 2 miler. Apples Jade is not a 2 miler.That's just a small sample from memory.The quality of opposition has never come into your argument until right now. I'm delighted you've finally seen the light.

Nobody doubts that Monalee has a better chance of winning a Ryanair than a Gold Cup.That's obvious but it's because of the opposition and not the trip.When the Gold Cup is done and dusted there will be probably be 5 or 6 trainers kicking themselves,with the benefit of hindsight, for not running in the Ryanair instead.And if you have a Lord Windermere/ Nortons Coin type of GC result then some will be kicking themselves for not running.
Report duffy January 18, 2019 7:38 PM GMT
Monalee is a 3 miler, the problem is that he's not a top class 3 miler, so his best chance is the Ryanair which is littered with the "not quite top class" brigade. He's need to make it a real test at the trip to give him his best chance, he wouldn't be for me though.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 9:01 PM GMT
I think all horse have an OPTIMUM distance.
That's the distance that will give them the best chance of achieving success.
That's winning races at the highest level possible that their capabilities allow.
UDS as an example:
Irrespective of the opposition,i have always said hes best at 2 miles,and I will always say that.
He has won the odd race or two at 2 and a half, and has never won a race at 3m.
Hes won plenty over 2m.
Annie Power won a Champion Hurdle(top level at 2m),yet could not beat More of That over 3m.

As regards seeing the light..........Monalee has the best chance in the Ryanair because that imo will be his optimum distance. Quality of opposition will always count when discussing a horses chances in a race....of course it will,but imo the horse being run at a distance that is not his optimum will put that horse at a disadvantage before the race has started.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 9:06 PM GMT
Coneygree,synchronised, denman, long run,bobs worth, Anibale fly,don poli, native river, lord windermere, on his own, all won or placed in recent gold cups. Not sure how many I would back to beat say cue card or uxizandre or vautour in a Ryan air

Don Cossack beaten in Ryan air with official comment not pace of front two in closing stages. Perhaps it is not me that is guilty of pigeon holing, perhaps we can be guilty of pigeon holing Ryanair and gold cup
Report buddeliea January 18, 2019 9:21 PM GMT
Supersundae is a 3 miler not a 2 miler. Samcro is neither a hurdler nor a 2 miler(nor a 3 miler either!).Altior is an out and out 2 miler. Apples Jade is not a 2 miler.

Don't recall ever saying that about Supasundae,in fact watching his races I would suggest hes maybe best at 2 and a halfm ?,he has won top 2m races though,and none at 3m.

Samcro has now been announced as unwell, so to be fair to the horse, Jurys back out for me.

Apples Jade is all about how shes been campaigned, which was pretty clear in my posts if I remember correctly.

Altior is one of the best 2m chasers I have ever seen,but his trainer seems to think he can step up and be successful,so I await that happening.....if it does.
Report cloone river January 18, 2019 10:09 PM GMT
Don cossack should have won the ryanair.He got a bad ride.
Report duffy January 18, 2019 10:17 PM GMT
firstimevisor 18 Jan 19 16:20 

My point,as I interpreted your 15.10 post, is to take a scenario that  Monalee was in the Gold Cup field and at the last minute it was decided to run the race instead over the Ryanair distance.Apart from the odd exception such as a dour stayer like Native River, the odds on the others chances would remain much the same ,relative to each other.


Can I have 12/1 Road to Respect then please.Excited
Report firstimevisor January 18, 2019 10:20 PM GMT
Round and round and round we go! I totally agree regards optimum distance being where a horse has its best chance of winning. The difference between us is that you believe that to be a fixed distance where I believe the opposite. UDS is a classic example. The ultimate ridiculously consistent 170 chaser whether over 2m or 2 and a half.You say 2m is his optimum distance I say it doesn't matter, his optimum distance is simply to avoid Sprinter Sacre, Douvan(Pre-injury) or Altior to give himself the best chance of winning.

Cheltenham only comes around once a year,and the good horses tend to only run once that week. If the championship races were spread across the entire season we would see many champions at multiple distances.

Annie Power was a great mare at all distances and yes she did stay.Don't blame the trip just because she didn't win. She was rated 165 entering the Stayers hurdle and ran to a mark of 164. She was rated 162 entering the Champion Hurdle and ran to a mark of 162.

Denman would have easily won just about any Ryanair. Don Cossack,in the form he was in in his GC year would have won most too, but not that same year, as Vautour was that rare species who really was a  superb 2m 4 specialist.
Windermere,On His Own and Anibale Fly I wouldn't have been confident of ever winning again but they may have given Uxizandre a run for it somewhere
Report duffy January 18, 2019 11:19 PM GMT
A horse's optimum distance is the distance that IT can manage to beat the highest calibre of horse at.

If it has a string of 1's next to his name at 3 miles against grade 2 horses but has not been able to beat the very best at that distance, but along the way he has beaten the best at 2.4 miles, then his optimum distance is 2.4 miles, it is all about the opposition, that is the guage to how we judge them by.
Report buddeliea January 19, 2019 8:12 AM GMT
Of course we judge horses by their races,and yes that has to include the opposition they run against.
I have already intimated that earlier.

I watch a horse in his/her races and then try and form an opinion based on that.
I will also look at the formbook... distance and ground mainly,and yes......opposition.
I don't look at ratings,never have. They are someones opinion....I prefer to use my opinion.
I think if I punted relying mainly on ratings I would end up potless.

I am of the opinion that Annie Power would have thrashed More of That over 2m,and the reason she could not do that when they met was because it was 3m.....simple as that,Could not care less what ratings were decided.
UDS ran against Sprinter twice,and simply got beat by a better horse.Same with Altior,beaten by a better horse,although one could say age is playing a part now. Douvan....not sure about him beating UDS in their prime, possible of course but open to question.
UDS has won a lot of money over the years,the majority in 2m races.
Yes he won a Ryanair well....hes a class act,but he also lost one,and I have no doubt he would beat Balko over 2m.
Lord Windermere,On His Own and Anibale Fly would have been distanced had they ran in Uxizandres Ryanair,no doubt in my mind,but don't think Uxizandre could have done that to them in a Gold Cup.
Report irishone January 19, 2019 8:49 AM GMT
optimum distances ?

most of the horses I have will have a different optimum distance everyday.
it depends on hundreds of variables, usually the weather decides whether or not they will come out of the stable ...if i'm lucky
then there's feed, then there's the sun, then there's the ground, tics, colic, then there's me, if i,m happy they are bouncing if I ain't they pick it up.

Sorry lads but trying to work out a horses optimum distance , you're better off looking for rocking horse sh1te !
Report irishone January 19, 2019 9:00 AM GMT
Visor spot on, recognises the inconsistent nature of training horses  and the vagueness of the terms like stayer

As for this ...
"The trainer of Monalee had been reported to say he'd try and convince the owner to run him in the Ryanair Chase; the trainer had also been reported to say he ran him in the wrong race at the last Festival."

Never in a million years, HDB tells owners, end of ! He thought he run him in the wrong race because the ground was too heavy over 3 miles . After the RSA he thought 2 and half in heavy would have been better. 

...and yes I know Claisse says it was good, good to soft in places, but if he mentioned the word heavy in a going desription hendos wouldnt turn up and it would be an irish 27-0 whitewash .....
Report buddeliea January 19, 2019 9:46 AM GMT
Irish
Firstly, apologies for hijacking your PP thread!!

Secondly
Do you know the reasoning behind the thinking re Monalee running in the wrong race?
Report irishone January 19, 2019 10:13 AM GMT
Hdb very self critical, doesnt see it as weakness to say sorry or he got it wrong, very intelligent man and knows all about the vagueries of training horses. Would always put himself in front of the team. Very astute person.
Report impossible123 January 19, 2019 10:16 AM GMT
Re: Monalee. I was merely paraphrasing what I'd read and reported. For a trainer to say "he thought he ran Monalee in the wrong race" was clearly inferring by me that Monalee ought to have run in the JLT - only other option; the additional "because the ground was too heavy over 3 miles" is something I cannot recall. The horse had nothing left after jumping the 3rd last, and the RSA is 2f shorter than the Gold Cup distance. To paraphrase (again) Hendo prior to the Gold Cup regards Might Bite, the ground after the last fence was a concern as it was much softer and could be a slog up the hill.

Again "he'd try and convince connections to run him in the Ryanair instead of the Gold Cup" was another paraphrasing which I'd inferred from the reported article. But he did allude to that not using the same words as I had.

I'd be gobsmacked if Monalee can win a competitive Gd 1 over 3m here even at Kempton. The Gold Cup? Only by default, that's all I'll say.
Report sageform January 19, 2019 10:39 AM GMT
Is the lack of Irish chasers running in England this year just due to the going or has the standard dropped? I expected Un De Sceaux to run today as second prize there is not too shabby but once again Mullins stays at home. Even Elliott is running very few this season, preferring to run 3 or more in races in Ireland.
Report buddeliea January 19, 2019 11:29 AM GMT
Ok Irish
You probably would not know the reasoning....fair enough,why should you really??

Has to one of two imo

He thought Shattered Love and co were easier opposition?

He thought Monalee had more chance of getting home in that ground at the lesser distance?
Report irishone January 19, 2019 8:36 PM GMT
No Budd
Hdb defends his stable , they thought monalee was a certainty, well publicised.
He reasoned what he reasoned before the event.
Fact was ....after the event ....he reasoned differently.
The reason was he was covering the advice of the staff as most big trainers do.
He is a very clever man ...give him that ffs !
Report irishone January 19, 2019 8:39 PM GMT
Sageform ? Have you got stats to back that up.
We had a bad winter last year with floods everywhere and heavy ground everywhere.
Could understand a few more going over for the g to s
BUT THIS YEAR .....

fecking daffodils in the backyard middle of january
Report lockup January 19, 2019 8:43 PM GMT
hoping one runs a big race in the Kinloch Brae tomorrow to promote his Gold Cup chances.
Report irishone January 19, 2019 10:25 PM GMT
not too loud lock up …...
Report foxy January 20, 2019 8:16 AM GMT
irishone

was there a void race at last seasons festivalSurprised
Report lockup January 20, 2019 2:23 PM GMT
that will do nicely Irish another 1/2 mile stiffer track ideal gutsy effort today.
Report irishone January 20, 2019 2:50 PM GMT
Hes quality now that fella
Showed up mouse
Report buddeliea January 21, 2019 7:53 AM GMT
lockup

You not think the Ryanair?
Report lockup January 21, 2019 1:54 PM GMT
budd on looking again at yesterdays race i would say the further he goes the better he is backed him at 16s nr no bet for Ryanair as a saver but would love to see soft ground and Gold Cup.
Report buddeliea January 21, 2019 5:08 PM GMT
Fair points
But for the mistake,would have probably won a bit more.
Interesting one for the festival......whichever race he turns up in.
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