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unclepuncle
21 Mar 18 14:45
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 13,952 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Not so much a thread for next years antepost bets but more for the upcoming Aintree and Punchestown festivals.

What horses, espeically those that were well beaten, did you put in your notebooks.

Two for me:

The Worlds End - ran well for a long way in the Stayers (finished 7th) and given he won at Aintree last year hopefully he can follow suit this time. Was hoping there might be some juicy double figure prices available now before Yanworth and Supasundae pull out but alas not.

Felix Desjy - only finished 6th in the Bumper so may be slightly underestimated next time (though he is Elliot/Gigginstown so maybe notLaugh).
He went through the race like a class act, taking it up as they staightened for home, before weakening in the last furlong.
Be keen on him in the Punchestown Champion Bumper, but again only if the price is right.
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Report duncan idaho March 21, 2018 7:56 PM GMT
Voix du Reve- off 20 mnths before this season & all 3 runs over too far, refusing to settle long way Coral Cup; didnt look short of speed when fell last in 2016 Fred Winter (hit 1.22 IR) & surely a 2miler

Seddon- gave up outside to no-one in bumper but trav well long way and beat more than beat him

Bacardy's- unexposed beyond 2½m and looked to have plenty left when tumbling last in muddling Stayer's

Theinval- real favourite who just found soft ground blunting him at business end in GA; remains 3lb lower than when leading over final fence in last year's valuable Red Rum at Aintree
Report duffy March 22, 2018 3:19 AM GMT
Voix Du Reve for sure, I wrote the equivalent of war and peace and stuck it on the forum as to why he was a bet at the festival further down the threadCry.

He's a keen goer and consequently I was gobsmacked when the jockey had him right on the outside of the field which just served to light him up even more. His relative class still saw him right there until two out before his exertions told.

Back down to 2 miles, I reckon he's very well handicapped, he'll be dropped again now most probably too.
Report nocturnal March 24, 2018 10:29 PM GMT
Voix Du Reve......Totally agree with this one.Same trainer/owner won the last race on national day 2016,with Ivan Grozny,conditional jockeys over 2m,interested to see where they go with this lad.
Report GI MAC March 25, 2018 12:41 PM BST
Discorama, exaggerated hold up tactics in the MP hurdle backfired, stormed up the hill, only been put up 2lb to 138. This mark wont stop him winning, should stay 3miles also.

Redician will be better back on a flat track

chesterfield, good ground is key to this one, ran well in the mud, only up 1lb

Paloma Blue, still progressing and could pick up a decent novice hurdle this season, I can see this one winning nexts years Arkle/JLT, all over a chaser.

Petit Mouchoir, I'm hoping he goes to Aintree, ran well there before. Sh!t ride at Cheltenham, and not ran much this season.

Topofthegame, Now up to 155, he could run well in the 3m novice hurdle at Aintree, would love to see him in that on decent ground. If back chasing next year I can see him going well in the RSA.
Report johnslad March 25, 2018 4:41 PM BST
The eye's of a pocket talker
Report irishone March 25, 2018 9:07 PM BST
MITE BITE was my eyecatcher
henderson should get the fear of the cul de sac out of him as he gets older and we wont see ground like that again for a while. he sought a lead up the hill and got it , he had loads in the tank and the ground fecked him.
Report duffy March 25, 2018 11:14 PM BST
What do you mean he had loads in the tank?Confused...the ground fecked him because he was tired come the end and when he needed to find he had nowt left.
Report irishone March 26, 2018 8:25 AM BST
doesnt go in heavy
plenty in the tank
get yerself a horse and live with it
Report irishone March 26, 2018 9:28 AM BST
i can get you a nice shetland mare for 100 euros
she will teach you all you need to know my friend
Report GAZO March 26, 2018 9:54 AM BST
he seemed to go in heavy for most of the race
Report irishone March 26, 2018 10:53 AM BST
dont you. believe it
hes a low striding horse
he coukd have picked native river up and carried him on his back on half decent ground
watch the replays
flicking his ears ten yards from the line
you dont often see one on his toes at the end of a gold cup
watch when the jockeys are shaking hands
mitebite almost kisses native river
"thanks for the ilead mate"
Report impossible123 March 26, 2018 12:57 PM BST
'irishone', I hope you're right. I'm in heavy on him for the King George and Gold Cup, and hoping for better ground.
Report duffy March 26, 2018 1:42 PM BST
So...irish is implying that it is the horses action ( low striding) that prevented the horse from picking up despite having loads leftConfused

However, it's that low striding action that tires the horse out because it necessitates the horse to come into contact with the gluey ground more often than a typical soft ground horse with a higher action . MB wouldn't have been as able to propel himself out of it as well, he did it well enough but the cumulative effect took its toll come the end.
Report irishone March 26, 2018 3:29 PM BST
the number of horses i have seen bottle it on the cul de sac.

hendos post race comments exposed those fears "he didnt turn right, he didnt shirk it, he didnt duck out he didnt shirk it"  why have that in the back of yer head ?

mite bite is a great horse without a doubt on a round course with decent ground, but he sh1ts himself running into the cul de sac. i saw denman do it, long run and one of j ps
Report buddeliea March 26, 2018 4:47 PM BST
I guess Hendo was referring to the fact that he did turn right last year.
This year he did'nt.

I think the jurys out on Might Bite until he runs against NR in decent ground.
Only then will we know for sure.
My take on it,MB would definitely have a better chance on decent ground,but i am unsure whether he would beat NR on any ground in a Gold Cup.I hope he can,i love the horse,but NR is a class act imo, who won a Welsh National.
Report duffy March 26, 2018 5:03 PM BST
I would be holding fire on my judgment about MB's errant tactics, he was ok this time, but he was tired, would he be inclined to go wandering off under this circumstance, I don't know of course but I'd have thought that putting one hoof in front of the other in a straight line would be more appealing than anything else.
Report johnslad March 26, 2018 5:21 PM BST
Don't bite
Report impossible123 March 26, 2018 6:26 PM BST
MB nor his jockey did anything wrong in the Gold Cup. I firmly believe he just got outstayed by a tough and thorough stayer on that atrocious ground; MB was going the better against NR coming to the 2nd and last fence. He was odds-on 'in-running in the Exchange until a few strides after jumping the last; he looked the likely winner from two out, and he did not shirk it either.

But I'm more than hopeful MB will avenge his defeat in the next renewal on better ground, and I'm longing for the day to arrive. He'll again be a major player in the King George come x'mas time, all being well.
Report firstimevisor March 26, 2018 8:11 PM BST
Might Bite ran a cracker, travelled like a dream and would have been an impressive winner without Native river. I can't see the point in blaming the ground for him not winning. It was soft ground,much the same as they were
racing on all season.If they ever meet again it will be a different day and a different race but there were no hard luck stories in the GC.

Who knows what the ground will be like for next year's Gold Cup but whatever it is its not as if its already shaping up into a 2 horse race again. Its 500-1 that the same 2 horses will fight out the 2019 GC. You have to go back to Lord Windermere to find the last horse to make the lineup the next year. Might Bite will be 10 and may not be quite as good as he was this season.

At this stage there are probably 30 horses who could win it next year and it will take about 9 months from now until the race even begins to take shape.


)
Report irishone March 27, 2018 8:42 AM BST
the fact you believe the cheltenham official going is naieve,  at best it should have been soft heavy in places.

as for no hard luck stories. edwulf was hampered ...did you see the race ?

as for your line on lord windermere wots the relevance of that ? loads of horses like djackadam, native river came back after being placed.
Report wondersobright March 27, 2018 9:18 AM BST
irish...native river was the 1st gold cup winner since bregawn in 83 to improve on a previous placing in the race
Report firstimevisor March 27, 2018 10:07 AM BST
There are some I can think of since Bregawn -The Fellow,Desert Orchid,Kauto Star,See More Business,-there may be more, who improved their position next year. Lord Windermere was the last winner to make it back the next year.The relevance is that there is absolutely no guarantee we will ever see a rematch in the future.

So do we believe the official going or do we believe your version? Either way what does it matter. Native River won whatever the going was. Its a winter sport.There is no divine right to have good ground in early March so that doesn't make Might Bite an unlucky loser. As for claiming he doesn't go on the ground(he clearly did) and he had plenty left in the tank(he clearly did not) that's just as bizarre as claiming Edwulf was a hard luck story. WTF!! He was beaten about 50 lengths and the "interference" 3 out cost him,at best,a half a length. And I've seen the race at least 10 times.
Report impossible123 March 27, 2018 11:13 AM BST
I think it was evidently clear Might Bite (MB) was matching stride for stride with Native River (NR) until after the last fence, and the heavy going could have exposed the stamina limitation of MB who'd never run beyond 3m prior, but one cannot be sure.

NR is an out-and-out stayer and also excels on easier going, a ground he did not get when beaten by Sizing John (SJ) last year; whether NR had improved or not is unclear given the absence of SJ and a drastic change in going this year compare to last year.

Unless one is sceptical about the assertion of Hendo - the trainer of MB - that MB is a better horse on good ground one cannot be certain MB was inconvenienced by the heavy going, but MB was clearly outstayed by NR; if good going is encountered next year and the same scenario prevails eg NR and MB in unison at the 2nd or last fence, and the same result prevails then one can safely conclude NR is a better horse over 3.25m than MB on better or easier ground.

However, if MB beats NR in the King George (KG) over 3m given the same scenario (all things being equal) and the going is heavy then one can safely conclude that 3.25m was a stretch too far for MB given the ease MB was going 2 and 1 fence out in the Gold Cup; if MB beats NR convincingly in the KG on better going (all things being equal) then one can safely conclude the better going certainly has helped MB to cement his victory over NR - the nature of Kempton Park could have been a factor but only to a far lesser one than the reduction in distance, one can safely infer I firmly believe.

On the topic of who's posting or not on this platform, this is a public forum and anyone is welcome to contribute, I believe, provided one is not rude, threatening, abusive or behaving in an infantile and immature manner to other posters which is contradictory to the purpose of this platform which is to share and exchange knowledge or info; this is not a platform to exhibit or inflate one's ego or "superior" knowledge on horse racing.

Horse racing is not nuclear physics, so try and keep it simple; it is a sport of opinions with many factors determining the eventual result. Any disagreement or differing views accepted (or not) could be marginalised at the touch of the 'ignore button' to nullify any ill-feeling and unsavoury climate on this forum. But  the views of any poster, far fetched or not, should not be stifled. If anything, go against the herd, that is the (rewarding) motto.

Personally, I can assure anyone I've used the 'ignore button' regularly and will continue to do so should I feel necessary.
Report GAZO March 27, 2018 11:48 AM BST
i am sure i heard the jockey of might bite say if he had tried to kick on sooner he would have got beaten by farther which suggests to me it was stamina.
Report impossible123 March 27, 2018 12:01 PM BST
^^It looked that way and MB was still over 8l infront of the 3rd horse Anibale Fly; NR is a thorough stayer and on easy going is certainly the one to be on next year, if he turns up which has not been the case the last 3 years eg Coneygree, Don Cossack and Sizing John; I do hope Sizing John makes a 100% recovery and makes it to the gig next March.
Report duffy March 27, 2018 1:48 PM BST
I'd never use the ignore button, you wouldn't be able to see what people are writing. It would make for a very disjointed "experience" I'd have thought, seeing peoples replies to posts you can't see yourself would be a bit confusing.
Report duffy March 27, 2018 1:58 PM BST
"staying" is relative, without NR, MB would have been a good winner and we'd all be lauding his stamina.

However the presense of NR saw the level of performance regarding the stamina side of things raised to an even higher level than that of what MB could achieve.

MB ran an incredible race but ultimately the race has put a ceiling given certain circumstances as to what MB is capable of.

On better ground the crucial thing would be for MB to force NR to go a stride or two quicker than what he'd want to earlier on and to break him up, he'd then be able to settle into a lead and get home better.

All that before you even bring in the likes of PP and SJ to mention just a couple...who I'd want to personally be with anyhow.
Report duncan idaho March 27, 2018 3:00 PM BST
i have no doubt that had MB run exactly the same race without NR in the field, the shrewdies would be insisting he was merely idling as Anibale Fly closed up late  Mischief
Report impossible123 March 27, 2018 6:19 PM BST
The only known form of NR on good going was in the Gold Cup (GC) won by Sizing John. Maybe NR could be excused of eating too many pies before the GC gig. Hopefully, NR goes to the King George (unlikely I understand), but if so, my money will be on MB with a smaller amount on NR...with a free ride on both (hopefully).

I hope Sizing John comes back 100% in the winter and makes the GC - he's of the same age as NR. Nevertheless, one must not underestimate the severity of a pelvic injury to a horse.

The use of the 'ignore button' is a last resort, and only to those with a history/propensity of belittling or 'shouting down' or 'hunting-in-a-pack' with their forum mates eg those old fashioned, antagonistic and cantankerous, on any poster whose views are not conducive to theirs; these posters like to think of themselves as the aficionados of horse racing. Personally, horse racing is a game to be enjoyed; if it creates stress I'd eradicate this stress by not reading their posts - usually bland and non-informative. So far, this practice has not been a disadvantage, and unlikely to be in the future either given the depth of new posters, their opinions (creative or otherwise), enthusiasm, etc - they give a new approach and richness to horse racing and betting/punting, period!
Report unclepuncle March 27, 2018 6:57 PM BST
impossible123
27 Mar 18 18:19

usually bland and non-informative.


I couldn't have described your input to the forum any better myself.

This is a thread, that I started, asking for people to put up horses that were well beaten at Cheltenham and so might have been missed by the market/media with a view to being some value in races in the coming weeks at Aintree and Punchestown.

Instead you come on here saying you are backing Might Bite, Native River and Sizing John for next years Gold Cup. Wow thanks for the insight.Laugh
If I ask you for a dark horse you'd probably think I was referring to Black Beauty so little so do you know about racing and betting.

Please refrain from posting on any threads that I start in future or I'll ask Betfair to remove them like you did with the Arc thread last year.Angry
Report unclepuncle March 27, 2018 6:58 PM BST
If someone can copy and paste that I'd be grateful becasue the dumb tw*t probably has me on ignore and won't see it.Crazy
Report firstimevisor March 27, 2018 7:42 PM BST
Grin
Report irishone March 27, 2018 8:42 PM BST
mite bite is a monster
but he doesnt do chelteham
Report irishone March 27, 2018 8:54 PM BST
hendo has got a year to get the horse to run into a cul de sac
with massive crowds either side
if there is one trainer in your country who can do that its him
the chances of it coming up heavy again must be at least 10/1
horses are very sensitive i have three of them and if they dont fancy anything
it doesnt matter what i do they wont have it
best of luck to hendo .... he is different gravy
Report ReaseHeath March 27, 2018 11:31 PM BST
good thread - until imp decided to make it about him (he forgot to mention that he also blocks you if you correct any of his multiple factual errors).

Anyway I concur about The Worlds End (still got reservations about his form figures of 8447 after winning 5 of his first 7 races - is he going to be good enough at Grade 1 level in open company over hurdles?), Topofthegame (3 mile novice at Aintree is a good shout, nothing to lose assuming he'll be novice chasing next season) and particularly Chesterfield (can't think that even his connections were expecting him to run that well on that ground).

Would add Moon Racer (best effort for a long time in the County Hurdle, dropped 3lbs since) - assuming he's sound, he could be one for the 2m 4f handicap hurdle which opens Day Two of the Grand National meeting, I think he'd prefer nicer ground too.

In fairness, you could have similar reservations about him to the ones I expressed about The Worlds End but he will be running in a handicap.
Report buddeliea March 28, 2018 7:38 AM BST
duffy
     27 Mar 18 13:58 
"staying" is relative, without NR, MB would have been a good winner and we'd all be lauding his stamina.

However the presense of NR saw the level of performance regarding the stamina side of things raised to an even higher level than that of what MB could achieve.

On better ground the crucial thing would be for MB to force NR to go a stride or two quicker than what he'd want to earlier on and to break him up, he'd then be able to settle into a lead and get home better.

For me this from Duffy makes absolute sense,in particular that last bit about getting NR to go quicker earlier on than he likes to do.
If he can do that he will imo beat NR,if he cannot he wont.
He has to win his race earlier,otherwise NR will simply outstay him every time.....NR is a Welsh National winner with class.
Report geoff m March 28, 2018 9:37 AM BST
Surely if you are going to go a stride quicker than NR would want to in the early stages then stamina is going to be the key @ the end?
Budd you seem to be suggesting the slower they go it will suit NRs stamina. Not that Johnson would allow it to be a steady gallop.
Report geoff m March 28, 2018 10:06 AM BST
Agree GiMac:Chesterfield was a big eyecatcher travelled strong and raced wide.Surely be suited by better ground .Liverpool/Aintree better ground but hardly 1 under the radar.(interstingly Chesterfield and winner Moahayed ran in Greatwood and both kept to the inner where they didnt have a prayer finishing 10and 11th respectivaly)

also Paloma Blue all over a chaser and if he can settle better will make a cracking chaser travels probably needs better ground  another (Special Tiara)


Agree with Rease :Moon Racer certainly 1 under the radar lost his pitch from 2nd last and around 20th turning in but ran on really well to finish 9th. 1 to watch if he can be kept sound .
Another from Pipes Eamon Ca Noic in the Ultima travelled strongly up front over a trip 3m1f well in excess of his previous efforts but stopped as if shot in the straight. Long term plot for the  Bet Victor /Caspian Caviar  next season.
Report GAZO March 28, 2018 10:49 AM BST
another from pipes is kings sock who travelled very well and was always in prime position until dropping away towards the end,maybe a drop in trip or easier track but he has been flagged up a couple of times in post and weekender so probally be short price next time out but one to watch
Report buddeliea March 28, 2018 12:26 PM BST
Geoff, I think Might Bite needs to dictate the pace of the race as the race progresses and get others uncomfortable before their stamina kicks in.
He won the King George that way.
If he cannot shake NR off by the time NR's stamina kicks in he will never beat him in a Gold Cup.
Its clear to all though that NR stays further than MB, so at some point MB has to kick on to gain a big enough advantage to hold on up the hill.
It does look to me though, that NR will be a very tough nut to crack next March, and I see him winning again to be honest.
Report GAZO March 28, 2018 12:34 PM BST
wont happen but would love to see might bite let loose in the ryanair
Report impossible123 March 28, 2018 12:58 PM BST
Might Bite (MB) in the Ryanair 2019? Unless it was heavy going again, very unlikely I'd think, after such a herculean effort this year. If the ground is good connections of MB will deplore a different tactic eg set the pace regardless, to try and draw the sting of NR maybe making a mistake or two in the process.

Whatever, should the two meet in next year's renewal, another spectacle in the offing, I believe.
Report Desmond Orchard March 28, 2018 1:18 PM BST
My worry about Kings Sock is that he was obviously fancied on the day and, like many of Pipe's runners, folded tamely.
Perhaps a shorter trip will help, but I wouldn't be interested at the likely short odds.
I thought Benatar ran really well for a long way in the JLT on unsuitable ground. But for his mistake at the last he would surely have finished closer to the front two, both of whom will go on to much better things.
His mark of 149 has stayed the same and if he is in handicap company next time - perhaps the big 2.5m chase at cheltenham in November (whatever they call it now) if roughed off for the season - I think he would have a great chance, as I suspect he's a good bit better than that.
But I don't know what the plans are and he could ruin that by going close in a G1 novice chase between now and then.
Hardly under the radar as he won the Supreme, but I thought Summerville Boys win was the performance of the week and think it is being undervalued by the markets. I'd like to see him over a fence, he might treat them with a bit more respect and reckon he could be some tool in coming seasons, whatever sphere he is campaigned in.
Report duffy March 28, 2018 2:55 PM BST
On better ground MB could afford to get NR at it earlier, to then get into the lead and set his own pace and rhythm once he's out the way.

There would be a net gain to MB to be able to get NR at it and to break him earlier compared to allowing NR to set his pace and gradually tighten the noose as the race progresses.

MB could afford to do that on better ground as he'd have money in the bank if you like, we've already seen how close MB came on desperate ground so that's your gauge to see how much rope he has to play with.

MB's was a near miss on bad ground with NR having to have things and the fractions to be perfectly nailed to exploit that ( as we've seen) slightest
of frailties.

NR did not go hard early on, on better ground MB would certainly go quicker and expose a horse that is uncomfortable at a quicker pace.

NR has bundles of stamina but it still has to be distributed in the correct way and going a stride harder earlier on would exhaust the reserves he'd have at the end a long way before the end came.

Anyway back to the point of the thread, O K CORRAL in the AB, I know he came 2nd anyway but he's going to be a serious novice chaser IMO, he was keen enough early on but travelled very well throughout, Geraghty let him get too far back and then when he asked him to make ground was very green but finished full of running I thought.

He's be my early idea of an RSA horse.
Report nocturnal April 2, 2018 10:19 PM BST
Voix Du Reve (page 1)

Entered in the 4-10 Fairyhouse tomorrow,dropped back to 2 miles.

Mullins has 8 in the race,VDR has 5 lb claimer booked,14% strike rate for stable.

Plenty guesswork involved,could be a duck egg,or are the others there as the smokescreen ?

Market late on may be the guide,not the easiest crew to work out.
Report BigField April 3, 2018 2:17 AM BST
Getabird was my biggest bet of the festival.......typical ey you have to laugh :D
Report duffy April 3, 2018 5:28 AM BST
Voix Du Reve very interesting today, the lad has ridden him before this season which is good because just like all Wylies it seems the horse takes a strong hold.

I'd just be a bit concerned that on this atrocious ground they go a bit slower than he likes and he ends up pulling his chance away. Definitely one to look at I/R first to see how it's panning out.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 12, 2018 10:19 PM BST
Might Bite - MONSTER (without a cul-de-sac Whoops )

Eamon an Cnoic - 1.45 FRIDAY. Juicy 16's Laddies/Koral Devil

Voix Du Reve - 17th April in €100k 2m hdl in 5.50 Fairyhouse.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 12, 2018 10:24 PM BST
Might Bite stamped his class on the Betway Bowl with a comfortable victory at Aintree.
Nicky Henderson had been agonising over whether to run the nine-year-old after his epic battle with Native River in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, yet he need not have worried.
Bristol De Mai, having his first run since a wind operation, tried to take the sting out of the King George winner and made the running under Daryl Jacob.
Stepping up the pace on the second circuit, only Clan Des Obeaux could keep in touch with the big two, and only then at a respectable distance.
Briefly Might Bite supporters had a little panic with a mistake at the fourth-last, but he was quickly back on the bridle for Nico de Boinville
By the time the front two set down for a battle, Might Bite was going much the better and the 4-5 favourite won by seven lengths, with Clan Des Obeaux just over three lengths back in third.

De Boinville said: "He's a magnificent animal and a joy to ride. He jumped with real panache and gusto.
"The ground is on the soft side and he really does feel that. He's one who will actually die for you. I'm privileged to ride him."
Henderson said: "That was as good a round of jumping as you'll ever see. He was just on it the whole way - he was doing crazy things.
"The horse was just enjoying himself. He's been telling us he's right, but you just can't tell until you run them how much they have left in the Cotswolds (Cheltenham).
"That's obviously it for this season. We'll be a bit braver next year, though, and we might have a crack at the Betfair (Chase, Haydock).
"To defend the King George is the obvious one, but if the ground is reasonable we will think about starting in the Betfair on the way to the King George."

Nigel Twiston-Davies said of Bristol De Mai, who won this season's Betfair Chase is spectacular fashion but did not run at Cheltenham: "We've finally discovered we are not as good as the top one. "He is very good, but we want to win. We will be back for the Charlie Hall and Betfair and those sort of things next season. "Everything was right today, there were no excuses. I thought we might have beaten him and I thought we had, but we didn't. "Well done them, they have the better horse. If we have the third best chaser in him, that's not bad. I'm sure there is another good one in him." Devil
Report nocturnal April 16, 2018 10:50 PM BST
Winner did it well,very likeable type.

However,if there was one to take home,it would have to be Clan Des Obeaux,not seen many better jumping displays from a 6 yr old for a long time.

Never threatening the front two up the straight,he stuck to his task really well,some very highly rated horses in behind,this lad with another summer on his back looks a really nice prospect.

Always plenty guesswork,not too hard on him at Aintree,this will give PFN an idea of where they stand,intriguing which route he will go next season.

With you tomorrow Wink
Report duffy April 17, 2018 2:57 PM BST
You haven't got the 3rd best chaser Nigel
Report unclepuncle April 18, 2018 5:31 PM BST
Clan Des Obeaux might well have been second but for the loose horse (Definitely Red) getting in his way for nearly 2 circuits.

If the handicapper doesn’t hit him too hard then next seasons Hennessey is surely the target - I’ll be waiting for first shows with interest.
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