Cheltenham Festival

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18 Mar 18 16:55
Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 5,016 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
The forum would much appreciate if a member of the press ask Tubby Elliott which race Samcro will be going for at next years Festival.

We can all back the sht out of it antepost to spoil his price come the day.

Thanks in advance.

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Report eric_morris March 18, 2018 4:07 PM GMT
Champion Hurdle is the target i understand.

6/1, 7/1, 7/1, 8/1 current prices.
Report eric_morris March 18, 2018 4:16 PM GMT
“In this game, you have to get up every morning and start fresh again,” Elliott said. “We had a rough day yesterday. And horses like this, there’s a lot of hype, a lot of pressure. But we can enjoy it now.”

Were Elliott given free rein, one senses he’d be inclined to keep Samcro to the smaller obstacles and aim at the Champion Hurdle next year.
Report eric_morris March 18, 2018 5:04 PM GMT
After reading the Cheltenham forum Gordon Elliott has announced Samcro as firmly on target for the RSA Chase next year.
Report eric_morris March 18, 2018 5:41 PM GMT
Expecting no ducking and diving on targets..

Elliott said: "Jack is 18 and Davy is 38. The two of them get on well and I'm very lucky to have the two of them riding for me. They fight their own corner and that's the way it is.

"There's no hiding place in Ireland, it's very competitive and you can't duck and dive."
Report unclepuncle March 18, 2018 6:08 PM GMT
Would be utterly pointless at this stage - probably won’t know until the 5 day stage next March.

Look at Monalee this year - trainer was still umming and arring until the declaration stage and then still made the wrong decision.
Report eric_morris March 18, 2018 6:11 PM GMT
The decision of hurdles or fences will already have been made uncle.
Report unclepuncle March 18, 2018 6:17 PM GMT
Even if it has they don’t have to say now - it can change between now and next November.

I’ll be amazed if the intention isn’t to go chasing but that doesn’t really help in having an antepost wager.
Report eric_morris March 18, 2018 6:19 PM GMT
He will be in the Champion Hurdle imo.
Report unclepuncle March 18, 2018 6:21 PM GMT
Want a bet.Laugh
Report unclepuncle March 18, 2018 6:23 PM GMT
Also if that is your opinion then back it now - isn’t that what it’s all about.
If Elliot were to come out and announce the CH is next seasons target his price will collapse. Can’t have it every which way Eric.

Maybe wait until nrnb.LaughDevil
Report eric_morris March 18, 2018 6:25 PM GMT
No it isnt what it is all about imo.
Report eric_morris March 18, 2018 6:28 PM GMT
When this becomes part of the makeup of highest level races it is probably time to bet on other sports .. which incidentally is what the young are deciding to do. Who can blame them?
Report geoff m March 19, 2018 10:57 AM GMT
Long term goal is surely the gold cup. A champion hurdle campaign aint the way to go to achieve this. They clearly consider him a stayer with a turn of foot(only chance of him going supreme was if it was heavy) and it was and they still didnt switch with a young progressive horse so cant seem em coming back in trip with the prospects of ground as soft as this year virtually zilch.
Report cyclops March 19, 2018 11:16 AM GMT
He's already six so very unlikely he will be campaigned over hurdles after this season.
All they've said about him indicates they believe his true merit will be shown once fencing and I'd be very surprised if they give a second thought to continuing his hurdles career.
Report Ramruma March 19, 2018 4:57 PM GMT
Not much point asking Elliott as whatever he says, Eddie O'Leary can overrule him at any time.
Report HaylingBilly March 19, 2018 4:58 PM GMT
Chasing next season seems most likely from what has been said previously. My two-penneth, take it or leave it, is Arkle 2019 and Gold Cup 2020.
Report firstimevisor March 19, 2018 6:02 PM GMT
There is not a snowball's hope in hell of Samcro remaining hurdling next season. O Leary has zero interest in hurdling other than to give budding chasers some racecourse experience.
Report geoff m March 19, 2018 7:50 PM GMT
Eddie O'Leary will vote for Samcro to begin his chasing career next season when discussions take place in late summer, but Gigginstown's racing manager stressed that no decision will be made on the future of the brilliant Ballymore winner before then.

Samcro is currently ante-post favourite for the Arkle, JLT and the RSA at the 2019 Cheltenham festival, as well as second favourite behind Buveur D'Air for the Champion Hurdle, but it might be wise to wait until next autumn to get involved in any of those markets as no definite decision has been made on what route he will take.

"We've not discussed it yet and that might not take place until Galway time in late summer," O'Leary said on Monday evening.
Report duffy March 19, 2018 10:53 PM GMT
brilliant Ballymore winner? I'm being pedantic of course...he was a good winner, in truth in a lot of peoples eyes I think he's a slightly less budding superstar post the festival than pre.....I think so anyway, don't think he'll stay 3 miles personally.
Report eric_morris March 19, 2018 11:54 PM GMT
In reality it would have been better to see him on normal Cheltenham ground to gauge his ability. The soft ground leaves question marks over his speed in a hustle and bustle quick championship race. He can out-travel them on soft but we have seen plenty of potential champions taken off their feet on quicker ground. The forst time he is amongst the best of his peers on good or good/soft is when we learn more about him.
Report johnslad March 20, 2018 9:56 AM GMT
Forst time u have an Irish accent all is not lost ye will probably start punting Irish trained and maybe make a few quid it hasn't stopped me ExcitedLaugh
Report eric_morris March 20, 2018 12:33 PM GMT
It was meant to be Norwegian.
Report johnslad March 20, 2018 1:10 PM GMT
So an Irish alco another wee gin
Report eric_morris March 20, 2018 1:25 PM GMT
The Ballymore is a funny old race that doesnt seem to produce top class staying chasers. It does produce top class 2m hurdlers however.
Samcro is more likely to be a top 2m hurdler who gets two and a half than an RSA and Gold Cup horse. Possible Ryanair in the future?

1997    Istabraq    5    Charlie Swan    Aidan O'Brien
1998    French Holly    7    Andrew Thornton    Ferdy Murphy
1999    Barton    6    Lorcan Wyer    Tim Easterby
2000    Monsignor    6    Norman Williamson    Mark Pitman
no race 2001 [1]           
2002    Galileo    6    Jason Maguire    Tom George
2003    Hardy Eustace    6    Kieran Kelly    Dessie Hughes
2004    Fundamentalist    6    Carl Llewellyn    Nigel Twiston-Davies
2005    No Refuge    5    Graham Lee    Howard Johnson
2006    Nicanor    5    Paul Carberry    Noel Meade
2007    Massini's Maguire    6    Richard Johnson    Philip Hobbs
2008    Fiveforthree    6    Ruby Walsh    Willie Mullins
2009    Mikael d'Haguenet    5    Ruby Walsh    Willie Mullins
2010    Peddlers Cross    5    Jason Maguire    Donald McCain, Jr.
2011    First Lieutenant    6    Davy Russell    Mouse Morris
2012    Simonsig    6    Barry Geraghty    Nicky Henderson
2013    The New One    5    Sam Twiston-Davies    Nigel Twiston-Davies
2014    Faugheen    6    Ruby Walsh    Willie Mullins
2015    Windsor Park    6    Davy Russell    Dermot Weld
2016    Yorkhill    6    Ruby Walsh    Willie Mullins
2017    Willoughby Court    6    David Bass    Ben Pauling
2018    Samcro    6    Jack Kennedy    Gordon Elliott
1 The 2001 running was cancelled because of a foot-and-mouth crisis.
Report eric_morris March 20, 2018 1:30 PM GMT
RSA and Gold Cup winners do not come from this race.
Report duffy March 20, 2018 2:11 PM GMT
Exactly..... I'd be far more excited with Summerville Boy going forward with what he did. He'd be up there as performance of the week for me, to lose all momentum and lengths at the worst part of the race and to get it all back was a bit special.

He has tactical speed and looks to be laden with stamina too.
Report eric_morris March 20, 2018 2:38 PM GMT
The two mile novice hurdle promotes speed with stamina which might explain why Gold Cup winners like Best Mate and Kicking King come from it.

The two mile 5 novice hurdle may contain those that dont have the speed for the 2 miler so hope to win against slower horses while seeing out the trip perhaps not that well. So the irony is that the longer race has weaker stayers overall who also lack speed.

At this Festival the slow ground muddies the water a bit which is why seeing Samcro on good ground against peers is going to be very informative.
Report eric_morris March 20, 2018 2:40 PM GMT
Speed with stamina is emphasised by the hill at Cheltenham. Weak 2 milers may do better elsewhere where speed is enough.
Report eric_morris March 20, 2018 2:42 PM GMT
There is no pure speed test at Cheltenham due to the hill. Horses winning good 2mile races elesewhere may flop when then extra stamina is needed on the hill.
Report eric_morris March 20, 2018 2:50 PM GMT
There are anomalies to this when horses go on to win the Champion Hurdle, perhaps they are the ones who would also have had the speed (without staying levels of stamina) to win the Supreme

The two mile 5 novice hurdle may contain those that dont have the speed for the 2 miler so hope to win against slower horses while seeing out the trip perhaps not that well. So the irony is that the longer race has weaker stayers overall who also lack speed.
Report eric_morris March 20, 2018 5:44 PM GMT
Consensus is Champion Hurdle. I think the trainer had the Champion Hurdle in mind when choosing the Ballymore over the Supreme personally.

I would agree with the plan to go Champion Hurdle, Arkle then Gold Cup for a few years to age 11.
Report geoff m March 21, 2018 7:35 AM GMT
Which Cheltenham Festival race would you go for next season?

Gigginstown love their chasers and I would imagine the Arkle has to be strong favourite for where he will be aimed next year,

Gigginstown are all about chasers, though, so I'd imagine it's fences,

from 2 journos who suggest champion hurdle.
Report eric_morris March 26, 2018 2:53 PM BST
Gordon Elliott will wait until nearer the time before deciding which race Samcro will line up in at next month's Punchestown Festival.

The much-vaunted six-year-old maintained his unbeaten record with a clear-cut win in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham almost a fortnight ago and is likely to be a warm order in whichever race he contests in County Kildare.

Elliott said: "He's in great form, so he is. He came out of the race very well.

"We were hoping he'd win, but it is Cheltenham and things don't always happen there. Thankfully everything went well, he looks a very good horse and we're very lucky to have him.

"The plan is to go to Punchestown with him, all being well. He'll have a couple of entries, so it's not just finalised which race he's going to run in. We'll make up our minds a bit closer to the time."

Asked whether Samcro would remain over hurdles or embark on a career over fences next season, the trainer told At The Races: "It's still all up in the air. We're still toying with the idea of training him for the Champion Hurdle next year, but nothing is set in concrete yet.

"I'll have to talk to Michael and Eddie (O'Leary). We'll get Punchestown out of the way and make a plan then."
Report foxy March 26, 2018 4:44 PM BST
There are only 2 dangers to him not winning the next 3 champion hurdles injury and brexitExcited
Report buddeliea March 26, 2018 4:51 PM BST
And the current Champion and the runner up,plus the supreme winner......if he stays hurdling.
Report foxy March 26, 2018 4:58 PM BST

He would eat those
Report duffy March 26, 2018 5:10 PM BST
and Laurina...she won't be running in any mares...they've got BDD to take AJ on again in that one....Mullins needs a CH horse and she'll be it.

She'd have been right in the mix in the Supreme IMO....and SB was a very good winner.

Yes she beat not much but visually she just looks like a bit of a machine, I spent long enough knocking Annie Power, I'm not making the same mistake again.Excited
Report buddeliea March 26, 2018 5:24 PM BST
Samcro still has to prove hes up to the level required.
Winning a Neptune is a stepping stone,and he looks a goodun.
Thats it thus far.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 26, 2018 7:00 PM BST
Eddie O’Leary.....The unbeaten Samcro will bring his season to an end at Punchestown and O’Leary indicated he is likely to run in the two and a half mile novice option.
“He’s in them all (novice races) but I would imagine it will be the two and a half. Or maybe he’ll go for the three mile, depending on the ground,” he said.
Samcro’s trainer Gordon Elliott also said no decision on whether the horse will go over fences next season or remain over hurdles.
“It’s still up in the air. We’re still toying with the idea of training him for the Champion Hurdle next year. But nothing is set in concrete,” he reported.
Report eric_morris March 27, 2018 2:26 PM BST
Yeah O'Leary is right lets try him at 3 miles ... go for it.
Report geoff m March 30, 2018 2:09 PM BST
User foxy • March 26, 2018 4:44 PM BST
There are only 2 dangers to him not winning the next 3 champion hurdles injury and brexit
theyve got 1 even faster in Farclas.
Report foxy April 1, 2018 5:57 AM BST
i am not really one for historical stats geoff but the triumph hurdle winners record is pretty poor down the years with a view to the following seasons champion hurdle ,even though only 9 runners i do think it was a decent race this year,and as you clearly know the spring juvenile at leopardstown where he was 2nd was a very good time,of course the 4th horse that day had beaten him at christmas giving him 3lb taking those two runs at face value he is clearly progressed to win the triumph,not sure he would beat the runner up if they met again at an easier 2 miles,like detroit city the champion hurdle course may not suit farclas.
Report duffy April 1, 2018 3:14 PM BST
Farclas looks like he's a 3 mile chaser in the making...he's Tiger Roll!!
Report foxy April 1, 2018 6:27 PM BST
Quite possibly duffy
Report duffy April 1, 2018 7:01 PM BST
Mr. Adjudicator had a stack of experience from the flat, since the spring juvenile Farclas has in effect progressed, caught up and gone past, I'd expect Farclas to move away from the 2nd horse going forward, he looks a strong stayer.
Report deepingfox April 2, 2018 7:58 PM BST
Absolutely, Duffy, I would expect FARCLAS to grow in ability from his first few races, and be a lot better than the other Triumph runners. 4yo into 5yo season is always tricky, for moving into Champion Hurdle or into Novice Chases, but he will probably give it a good go.
Report foxy April 28, 2018 6:02 PM BST
It’s seems like farclas didn’t improve after all to beat mr adjudicator on an easier track.
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