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GoldCupWinner
11 Mar 18 20:15
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Date Joined: 16 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 3,352 | Blogger: GoldCupWinner's blog
I think Shantou Flyer is a solid place bet in this race. Seems to run very consistently at Cheltenham and the soft ground is also in his favour. James Bowen takes off 3lb which effectively puts him back on his last winning mark. Also tends to be staying on over 2m 5f and I am hopeful the further distance can bring about improvement. He has won over 3m here in the past staying on at the end, albeit that was on good ground. I once read that you need 10lb in hand to win this race and whilst I don't think he will improve that much I do think he is a very solid bet to place.
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Report lordnoise March 11, 2018 8:25 PM GMT
Agree big time but Coo Star holds all the Aces. Like Casse Tete at a big price too ...
Report Hibore March 11, 2018 8:45 PM GMT
I’m very sweet on Vintage Clouds in this race especially with the forecast soft/heavy ground. It’s a race always run at a very fast pace and in recent years being able to travel and jump we’ll have been at a premium. However, I can see this race become an extreme stamina test with many of the field crying enough before they come to the straight. You would at first thought think that the 4 miler would be the race for this strong staying chaser but his run last year in this race when falling 2 out really caught my eye on the reruns. He’s a much more professional horse this year and improved with his racing. His run in the Welsh GN and 2nd to Ballyoptic are strong pieces of form on very soft ground and near the bottom of the weights on Tuesday he is still probably value at 12/1. He also has the assistance of the excellent Danny Cook who I’m sure is looking forward to riding a positive near the front ride.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 11, 2018 8:47 PM GMT
Had backed Gold Present early on at 10s but the ground for him now ??

Took some 28 on here yesterday on Vintage Clouds as well with how the ground is likely to ride
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK March 11, 2018 9:00 PM GMT
Heno took gold out
Twice this year
On bad ground issues
Could @@@@ his national bid
Running him on heavy ground can’t see him running
Report Deptford March 11, 2018 9:01 PM GMT
PWise will tip Vintage
Report Jb23 March 11, 2018 9:12 PM GMT
Agree with Hibore on all of that. I have a very very basic model spreadsheet for all of the handicaps at Cheltenham based off the last 11 years and the 2 it has thrown up are Vintage Clouds and Coo Star Sivola.

Average Age - 8.08   
Average SP -14.38   
Average OR - 141.78   
Average Weight 10-13/11-0   
72%    have won this season
67% have won or placed at Cheltenham

Probably all completely redundant information, but half the fun for me. I always do a tricast of the three by model likes the most and those 3 are: Coo Star, Vintage Clouds & Beware the Bear.


Good luck all :)
Report Deptford March 11, 2018 9:15 PM GMT
Gutted about the rain, fancied Gold for ages
Report convict99 March 11, 2018 10:21 PM GMT
same here...all over gold present but rain might of killed his chances...thought beware the bear could run a nice race at the prices but the jockey has me terrified
Report unclepuncle March 11, 2018 10:34 PM GMT
For the sake of having a bet I’ve gone for Cogry @ 25/1 - course and going no problem, just hope he gets a decent early position and gets into a nice rhythm.
Report leoptown March 11, 2018 11:02 PM GMT
Best chance of an English winner
Report deepingfox March 11, 2018 11:05 PM GMT
Uncle, agreed, really keen on COGRY, low weight, 3lb claimer (one win from losing claim), loves soft ground, won last two trips to Chelters.
Report marychain1 March 11, 2018 11:12 PM GMT
Really couldn't find a bet I really liked for this and spent ages on it. Shantou Flyer and Vincente the two I'm likeliest to come down on at this stage.
Report Gordon63 March 12, 2018 7:48 AM GMT
was on mossback at 33s but now runs in NH chase - so switched to vintage clouds, may even do forecast with stablemate wakanda
Report dunlaying March 12, 2018 9:55 AM GMT
Eamon An Cnoic e/w
Coo Star Sivola win
Report Autocue March 12, 2018 7:13 PM GMT
Shantou Flyer for me as well. Looks like this was the target.
Report Deptford March 12, 2018 7:28 PM GMT
I reckon he will scratch Gold Present
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 12, 2018 7:31 PM GMT
I thought he would too Deptford but surely he'd have done it by now?

Reading what Nicky is saying it seems he is happy to run him and thinks there is a strip of fresh ground on the rail that's not that bad and will want Nico to be going along that.
Report Deptford March 12, 2018 7:33 PM GMT
I just cant see him in that ground with that weight
Report Deptford March 12, 2018 7:34 PM GMT
Anyway, I am about to open a bottle of Champers and have some M n S Apricot Swiss Roll, good luck mate
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 12, 2018 7:36 PM GMT
Aye good luck and enjoy the week
Report pmt March 12, 2018 10:03 PM GMT
lord noise , my friend owns casse tete . You are a shrewdie. We do fancy him and he is in great shape.
Report ACStafford March 12, 2018 11:34 PM GMT
Will he get the trip?
Report nocturnal March 13, 2018 12:16 AM GMT
Very interesting entry,on the back of a fine performance LTO.

Starting him off over 3m last january suggests they see him as a staying chaser,presumably that knocked his confidence when taking heavy fall.

39/42 winners have been aged 7-10,that is the big negative being 6 yr old.

Whatever happens tomorrow,fine prospect in capable hands,one I will be following.

Best of luck with him PMT......lets hope they ALL come home safely.
Report SOULDANCER March 13, 2018 6:25 AM GMT
GOLD PRESENT by 20 lengths.
Report pmt March 13, 2018 7:06 AM GMT
yes he won by 10 at auteuil on his first chase start on bottomless ground. Has a high action and needs plenty of cut. its his 9th chase start so i wouldnt worry about the age stat, not many 6 year olds run in this. Owner only has one other horse; Baron alco, who only got beat by a Gold Cup horse in the Brown and n=Merribell last year.
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK March 13, 2018 7:56 AM GMT
If he loves the bog so much
Why he been pulled out of other
Engagements I don’t get it how he’s in line up
National on his mind
More bull **** from this yard
Huge fan of this horse drove people potty
All summer about him
Report nocturnal March 13, 2018 9:48 AM GMT
Thanks PMT

Everything looks in his favour today,what a thrill taking a decent one there with a live chance.

Live about a mile from his old stable on the hill.

Hope he does you proud.....GL
Report flux March 13, 2018 9:52 AM GMT
Ramses De Teillee for me E/W - He'll love the ground, sound jumper too. I guess the big field is a question mark for him but not exposed.
Report ReaseHeath March 13, 2018 1:28 PM GMT
another vote for Vintage Clouds ew, missed the 12s but still think 9s is a fair price

also Knight Of Noir ew 33/1 - great profile for the race, bit worried about the ground for him but will chance that at the price...
Report unclepuncle March 13, 2018 3:12 PM GMT
Unlucky on Shantou Flyer - poor jumps at the last two whereas Coo Star was brilliant at both.

Delighted for Lizzie and Nick, just hope they can repeat it in the Fred Winter.
Report Jb23 March 14, 2018 9:55 AM GMT

Mar 11, 2018 -- 4:12PM, Jb23 wrote:


Agree with Hibore on all of that. I have a very very basic model spreadsheet for all of the handicaps at Cheltenham based off the last 11 years and the 2 it has thrown up are Vintage Clouds and Coo Star Sivola. Average Age - 8.08    Average SP -14.38    Average OR - 141.78    Average Weight 10-13/11-0    72%    have won this season67% have won or placed at CheltenhamProbably all completely redundant information, but half the fun for me. I always do a tricast of the three by model likes the most and those 3 are: Coo Star, Vintage Clouds & Beware the Bear. Good luck all :)


1,3,4.

One day I will get the tricast up. One day

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