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wellchief
11 Feb 18 12:15
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Date Joined: 17 Dec 09
| Topic/replies: 3,384 | Blogger: wellchief's blog
We've got five horses now who are 'generally' odds on or evens at best.  I say generally because there are one or two random bookies who may be evens or slightly odds against, but the general market of high street bookies and big online players are odds on.  Five, at this stage of the season seems a lot to me, although that's just a hunch, no idea if we normally have this many at this stage.

I suppose my question is would you take these on or back them?

FOOTPAD - I'd take him on at the prices.  I think this race has good strength in depth at the top of the market, and whilst Footpad has been really impressive, I don't think it'd be the biggest shock in the world if he got beat.  Looks a completely different horse over fences, but beaten twice at the Festival now over hurdles.  Thoroughly deserves to be favourite, but he's far from over the line imo.  I'm taking him on with Saint Calvados.

BEVEUR D'AIR - Impossible to oppose but I can't take 1/2.  He hasn't really had a race since last year's Champion Hurdle, but nothing at all has come out of the woodwork to take him from last year's novices and although Faugheen is in the line up now, he looks a shadow of his former self.  Barring an injury or something happening in running, it'd be the shock of the festival if he didn't win - I'll be sitting back and watching with no bet in this race.

APPLES JADE - Probably my banker of the meeting, and whilst I wouldn't back her in a single at 4/6 (not my style) she'll be the centre of most of my multiples.  Reigning champion and last year's race was much stronger than this years, and she has improved again.  By far the best of her sex, this is her optimum trip, perfect prep and has had Supasundae behind twice this year.

SAMCRO - Not a race I've focussed on too much, but similar to Beveur D'air, his presence makes this a no bet race for me.  I've missed all the fancy prices (I've been taken in with hype horses in the past before they've run so stayed clear this time), so those on at a nice price, well done, but I can't back him now at evens and 4/5.  I'll watch, hope he wins well, but makes the race a non starter betting wise for me.  I can't really find anything to take him on with, especially if Next Destination goes for the longer race, so he maybe I should be backing him big, but most likely (like Apples Jade) to be in the odd multiple.

ALTIOR - Clearly looks like a two horse race between himself and Min, it'd be a huge shock if one of those two didn't win.  Altior clearly back to his best after yesterday, but as others have eluded to, there is the worry of the bounce factor, plus his underwhelming Arkle performance sticks in my mind.  He is quite rightly favourite, but I'll probably take him on with Min at the prices, even though, again, I've missed the 'ew banker' prices of around 4/1.  Min's had his own injury problems but seems to be over them now, and back to his best last time out.  The fact that Altior beat Min in the Supreme doesn't play on my mind too much, a lot of water under the bridge since then.

So overall, I'll  be taking Footpad and Altior on, will make Apples Jade my banker in most multiples and will sit back and hopefully watch Samcro hose up in the Ballymore and see if Beveur D'air can make it back to back Champion Hurdles.
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Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 11, 2018 12:53 PM GMT
RUBY will do your money FACT Devil
Report DontBeSakhee February 11, 2018 1:14 PM GMT
You would usually expect a couple of the shorties to get turned over, but it's not blindingly obvious who this year.

For me bankers are Apples, Buveur D'air and after yesterday Altior.

I'm taking on Footpad, who of the above is probably the weakest odds on, but that's not to say I'm in any way confident he will get beat, just take-onable.

The problem with the others is who will beat them. I suppose the hype may turn to dust around Samcro on the day, or Faugheen returned to Cheltenham suddenly takes off again.

The other two though, the mares division is as uncompetitive as ever and unless Douvan returns totally as before I can't see Altior getting beaten even by Min.
Report duffy February 12, 2018 12:09 AM GMT
Apples Jade and Samcro are bankers in my book

BD not because of the Faugheen factor(unlikely I know) or dare I say it Yorkhill!!! tin hat deployed

Altior not because of the Douvan factor because if he turns up and at his best simply wins (unlikely I know), plus maybe, Min does present a decent level of opposition, and dare I say it, Yorkhill!! tin hat deployed...again!!!

Footpad not because PM definitely presents a decent level of opposition, as does Saint Calvados...if they have to swim the 2 milesDevil
Report duffy February 12, 2018 12:15 AM GMT
Douvan 99% looks like he's not going to run though doesn't itSad shame, both BD and Altior could do with real quality opposition against them.
Report impossible123 February 12, 2018 12:39 AM GMT
Of all the shorties eg BD, AJ, Altior, Samcro, Footpad and Getabird (getting progressively shorter and rightly so if Samcro is absent) the one that could be surprised the most is BD - if the real Faugheen and/or Yorkhill turn-up (very big if). And in order of as certainty goes I'd have Samcro, Altior, Footpad, AJ, BD and Getabird.
Report duffy February 12, 2018 1:02 AM GMT
imp,

We're going to get annihilated in the morning for bringing Yorkhill upGrin
Report buddeliea February 12, 2018 7:02 AM GMT
Got to be some serious bias against BD,or pocket talk,to say BD is not a banker on the strength of yorkhills season.

To me the shorties look really strong,only doubt for me would always be a novice,but this years one does look rather different!!

Do the bet though.you can bet one at least will get beat!! It always happens.
Report impossible123 February 12, 2018 8:50 AM GMT
Opinions, opinions, opinions, that's what horse racing is all about. Until BD beats something still in its ascendancy eg Samcro/Getabird my opinion of him will remain.

I was hoping Defi Du Seuil could sock-it-up to him but been disappointing to say the least, and I hope Yorkhill could take up the baton (if sound); the presence of Yorkhill in exchange for 1/2 the present field will be a more credible opposition than without. Maybe Ruby could do the oracle, otherwise another easy race for BD...
Report Mystic Wind February 12, 2018 8:57 AM GMT
Rule #1 : Just because something is a short price doesn't make it poor value - offer me 11/10 about 'heads' on a coin toss and I'll bet with you all day long.

Rule #2 : There is no obligation to bet in EVERY race, in fact it can be quite good for the soul to watch a race for the pure sporting spectacle, without a financial interest.

Rule #3 : Always bet on the basis of YOUR judgement of a horse's ability/form/fitness etc. Following hype leads to the poor house in the long run.

FOOTPAD : Deserves to be favourite but not this short and Saint Calvados should be a 4/1 shot tops imo (even shorter if it turns up soft) so he's the bet for me.

BUVEUR D'AIR : Obvious chance, a watching race for me. Would love to see MTOY get his head in front.

APPLE'S JADE : Impossible to oppose. Arguably a fair price even at 4/6 but no bet for me in this.

SAMCRO : Some substance to his form but price based a lot on hype. Not for me. Next Destination needs to run in this as this is his trip - he'd be a solid e/w bet if he does. There are also a few dark un's that are interesting, especially Vinndication.

ALTIOR : Not the sort of prep that would encourage an odds on bet from me. Watching race.

A couple of other shortish ones look worth opposing to me : Getabird (hype) and Apple's Shakira (form over-rated). Kalashnikov and We Have A Dream instead for me.

Good luck everyone.
Report buddeliea February 12, 2018 9:10 AM GMT
Like I said........

Got to be some serious bias against BD,or pocket talk,to say BD is not a banker on the strength of yorkhills season.
Report impossible123 February 12, 2018 9:40 AM GMT
I do not bet in every race - I'm very selective and only do Group/Grade races but no handicap except big ones eg Schweppes, Tolworth with a good success record, now and again. No interest in all-weather whatsoever unless 'laying' to gather info and stats for a bit of time-killing and/or fun. My last horse bet was Kalashnikov on predicament (3 shoes), name and success last renewal in single, trebles and accas with Altior, Samcro and Footpad only for £2 each (fun bets).

Have Faugheen in the CH post his triumphant return at 15/8 doubles with Samcro, but have backed Yorkhill at big prices (here) for a small stake, and any race; just cannot have BD (not held in high esteem by me) because I believe he's susceptible to a Yorkhill gatecrash; have AJ in the Mares and Stayers prior to her victory over the ill-fated Nichols Canyon; MB, SJ, OD and NR (after the Denman) running for free (very lucky) in the Gold Cup similarly Getabird at 5/1 and (7/2 (nrnb).

As I said many times before horse racing is a game only, and mainly opinion based; backing winners is not scientific more luck and (form), all things being equal thus do not subscribe and/or kowtow to so-call racing junos/experts feeding from bookies' troughs expounding their wares on racing media.

Never forget one is only as good as one's latest win, and no more. And, one is only kidding oneself if aftertiming - it does not improve one's wealth if so.
Report woodmanchester February 12, 2018 9:46 AM GMT
Why all the talk of no-hoper Yorkhill? Something obviously amiss there. You should really be putting up My Tent Or Yours and The New One as each-way alternatives, imo
Report buddeliea February 12, 2018 9:50 AM GMT
Like I said......
Report woodmanchester February 12, 2018 9:52 AM GMT
How many runners do you reckon will actually be going to post, Bud?
Report impossible123 February 12, 2018 10:24 AM GMT
I believe there were comparable arguments about Yorkhill prior to his victory in the JLT last Festival eg propensity to jump left, which race, etc, and allowed to start at 6/4 (much bigger only days earlier/superior formlines to any) even in the absence of Buveur D'air, the long time 2nd fav. And he excelled in the race.

This season Yorkhill has been repeatedly messed about - intentionally or not I'm not sure - but messed about he was eg running in a 3m chase 1st outing, then 2m chase. Assuming he is sound and Festival bound he'd be going to either the Ryanair or the Champion Hurdle, nowhere else. And, no doubt Ruby will have a say which.
Report Cash Is King February 12, 2018 10:34 AM GMT
You can add Laurina in the Mares Novice Hurdle to the list of "shorties" as she's currently hovering around the even money mark. Like the other "shorties" she looks a worthy favourite.
Report Desmond Orchard February 12, 2018 11:52 AM GMT
Ignore it Bud, as usual it’s pocket talk from him.
How anyone can think a novice chaser yet to face two very credible rivals and is priced at around even money, has more chance than the reigning wide margin champion hurdler who has won every race since with his c0ck out and is generally 1/2 - I don’t know?
“But he finished third in a race two years ago, so must be rubbish” *stamps foot
I’m not saying the one will win and the other won’t, I’ve actually backed against both and will probably lay them on the day if they go crazy short, but one appears bomb-proof and the other has questions to answer.
I thought Altior looked mustard on Saturday and find it very hard to see him beat; him, BD and Apples Jade are the ones with the fewest questions to answer.
Report buddeliea February 12, 2018 12:14 PM GMT
Yes Des, I know I should ignore it, but just annoys me when people try and knock a champion that won his championship race impressively, and had done nowt wrong since, winning impressively every time.
But pocket talk can encourage that sort of comment I guess.

Woodman
Not going to be many I imagine, probably somewhere between 6 and 10.
Guess it really depends how many connections will try to grab some prize money.
Report woodmanchester February 12, 2018 12:56 PM GMT
Doesn't look like The New One will go now, 140.0 Daq. Neither My Tent Or Yours, 52.0?
Report woodmanchester February 12, 2018 12:57 PM GMT
Well, that's according to Oddschecker anyway. Wouldn't be the first time they've messed up! Laugh
Report Callisto-moon February 12, 2018 1:22 PM GMT
no big move on here
Report duffy February 12, 2018 2:31 PM GMT
budd,

Let's try and clear the BD issue up, I don't think anyone is knocking the horse per se, TO CONFIRM, BD IS A GOOD HORSE.

That's it though, it is very fair to question if he's worth any higher elevation because he's not running against Grade 1 horses.

I for one believe he's lucky not to be around in a stronger era as to me he doesn't look top drawer, he's good but that's it.

There are people who would still question Istabraq (not me) on much the same issue, and if it's good enough for that great horse then it most certainly is good enough for Buveir D'air.


BD is a good horse but is unquestionably around at a time when the premier 2 mile hurdling division is absolutely on its knees.

Imagine if BD missed the race, it would still be won by something, would people come on here then and criticize others for claiming that the likes of John Constable isn't a decent CH winner!!!, no, of course not because it would be a valid point. Now BD is higher up the food chain than him but the principle is much the same
Report buddeliea February 12, 2018 4:51 PM GMT
Well a lot rave about Faugheen,yet he posted the same time as BD when he won his CH.
Both ridden to the line.Similar ground.
My opinion watching both horses is that they are both perfect CH horses,as was Istabraq.
None of these 3 have faced great opposition in their respective Churdles.
When i see a horse jump,travel and finish off Churdles as these have,i have no problem saying they are darn good ones.
I aint watching the opposition if they are getting beat easily.Just the one that is clearly very good.
Report buddeliea February 12, 2018 5:04 PM GMT
Basically the only way anyone can say anything against BD being a very good Champion,is have a pop at his opposition.
All that does is highlight the horses he is running against as not being that great,but it cannot prove BD is not better than just a good horse.Not unless he is struggling to beat them.
He never struggled in his Churdle and has not struggled in any other of his 2m hurdle races at senior level.
Report duffy February 12, 2018 5:30 PM GMT
It is true that it's hard to guage just how good he is because as he's running against horses that aren't up to the true grade  you have to go on the perception you get from seeing him during his races.

For me he doesn't possess that wow factor that would suggest that although he's beating up on lesser horses you could see there is a lot more layers there should he'd need them, I don't get that feel from him. It may be because he does not possess that turn of foot that Faugheen had so to the eye it doesn't excite you as much. Perhaps if he was up against a top class 2 miler he'd show just what he could do, I wouldn't rule it out, but I wouldn't bank on it myself.

Heavens sake, it is a general perception afterall, there's a "mere" novice about at the moment that plenty would make fav. in the CH itself should it ran in it....and that really shouldn't be the case if we're dealing with an established and well regarded reigning champion.
Report buddeliea February 12, 2018 6:03 PM GMT
I think all your your last comments highlight is how much people go overboard about some horses,although of course he could already be simply a better horse than BD is,for all we know.But its all just talk as the horse aint done anything to give anyone substance in saying he would be fav in the CH.

You are correct in saying its hard to gauge just how good he is,and because of that i accept i may be overrating him,but at the same time,because of that, its also possible people could underrate him.
Like you Duffy i am going on the perception i get from seeing him, and basically i have a different view.
To me he does have a turn of foot,and he showed it in his CHurdle,he oozes class in my eyes.

Maybe something will happen at some time to prove conclusively which of us was right to say what we are saying now.
Report wellchief February 12, 2018 6:14 PM GMT
I think he's a cracking little horse, Beveur D'air; I'd certainly back him over Altior if for some reason Altior ever ended up in the Champion Hurdle....I know he won't btw, just hypothetically.  He's improved so much since his Supreme run, I personally think he's the best 2 mile hurdle Britain has produced in 10 years, easily...in a division recently dominated by the Irish.

In the context of this years festival, I think he fully justifies his current really short price, I just don't back at those prices.

I personally think anyone who would back Samcro over Beveur D'air in a 2m hurdle this year is bonkers, and even without his dodgy season this year, I don't think Yorkhill would get near him either.
Report wellchief February 12, 2018 6:17 PM GMT
Ps: Just for the 10 year reference above, my first Cheltenham was 2007 (not long ago I know), and since then I haven't seen a better 2m hurdler in Britain than him.

Binocular, Rock on Ruby, Punjabi, Peddlers, Katchit etc would all lose to him imo and we know MTOY and TNO already have.  Ones like Spirit Son and Darlan may have, but unfortunately we'd never know.
Report impossible123 February 12, 2018 7:02 PM GMT
It is refreshing to see posters are prepared to put their head above the parapet or nailed their colours to the mast about their opinions. But I'd side with Yorkhill and/or Samcro should either run in the Champion Hurdle any time, any day, why? I value and appreciate the quality of the winner more than the winner of a walkover achieved against vastly inferior oppositions.

But as I've said many times before,...it is just me and my opinions which horse racing is all about, nothing personal.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 12, 2018 7:08 PM GMT
I value and appreciate the quality of the winner more than the winner of a walkover achieved against vastly inferior oppositions.


what the fack has Yorkhill ever beaten over hurdles to suggest it would win a Champion Hurdle ??
Report buddeliea February 12, 2018 7:16 PM GMT
Chief

I have just chucked a tenner on all the shorties,for a bit of fun

Altior,Buveur Dair,Apples Jade,Samcro,Footpad,Lauluna

Just over 35/1

Bit daft doing it now i suppose,but ive never done an antepost acca with six horses.
Report impossible123 February 12, 2018 7:47 PM GMT
Yorkhill won the Tolworth easily; he went 3l clear between the 2nd and last hurdle in the Neptune beating Yanworth who'd won every hurdle race prior, and who also started 2/1 fav in the Champion Hurdle which BD (5/1) won the following year.

I think one could safely deduce Yorkhill would be a serious CH candidate if Yanworth started fav in that race.
Report Can't Catch Me February 12, 2018 7:51 PM GMT
What has Yanworth's price got to do with anything? He ran a poor race and clearly isn't ever going to go close in a CH. Form is all that matters,not prices that now look like they were incorrect.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 12, 2018 7:54 PM GMT
Yanworth was stuffed in last years Champion Hurdle, so you're making a comment like I reposted yet then using a horse Buveur D'air demolished by 13 odd lengths in last years champion as he liked as a reason that Yorkhill could win a Champion as he beat the same horse in the Neptune (by far less).

The tolworth hurdle, absolutely pmsl. O O Seven, Agrapart, Welsh Shadow and Cyrius Moriviere. What was it you said about winning walkovers against vastly inferior opposition ??

Show some consistency ffs.
 
And who cares what prices they went off for last years Champion? Buveur D'air had been chasing until he ran in the Contenders Hurdle hence not having shown his hand over hurdles.
Report Can't Catch Me February 12, 2018 8:04 PM GMT
Yorkhill doesn't have a single piece of worthwhile form over 2m. Any 2m wins were against Stayers.

He would be absolutely run off his feat in a Champion imo, just like he was against Min last time.
Report impossible123 February 12, 2018 8:11 PM GMT
I understand BD had been chasing until he ran in the Contenders Hurdle. I also understand Yanworth was disappointing in the Champion Hurdle (CH) which BD won, but he still started at a shorter price and fav against BD which clearly indicated his form and chance.

By the way, I was only using using Yanworth to cement the potential and chance of Yorkhill should he run in this Festival the CH, all being well, whether he wins or not is another matter; he was also a short price contender for last year's CH which Mullins chickened out despite the absence of Faugheen.

Assuming he runs, he'll be my selection with/out BD and/or Faugheen.
Report Desmond Orchard February 12, 2018 8:51 PM GMT
Blah,blah,blah - I’ve backed Yorkhill at monster odds and am hoping some sucker will follow me in and so I can trade out. A two seasons ago Tolworth, ffs Laugh

BD is bang up to scratch as a Champion Hurdle winner, there’s plenty already mentioned who did little before and nothing afterwards to be worthy of the name - this fella has gone about proving he’s the best since and in all likelihood will again next month. Not every CH has the competition of the Hardy, Harchi and Inca years - most don’t. I reckon he’s as good as top notch Faugheen or Annie Power and significantly better than the sublimity, Katchit and Punjabi’s of this world.
Report ReaseHeath February 12, 2018 9:42 PM GMT
Going back to the original question, I'd be least keen to oppose Apple's Jade and Buveur D'Air - both basically been asked to repeat what they did last year and both with form since which suggests they may have improved - Buveur D'Air has the advantage of a probable small field in opposition which arguably looks no better than last year's renewal at this stage whereas Apple's Jade will probably have plenty of opponents but they look like being weaker than last year overall.

Next would be Altior - he looks different class but there are one or two potential opponents who could give him a race at their best plus his performance in last year's Arkle was one of the least impressive in his portfolio (harsh admittedly given the standards he sets).

Samcro looks the real deal, I'd be far less keen to lay him than most of the other novice shorties in recent years but he's got to deal with the travelling and the occasion which will both be new to him and he's got to handle the track. There are currently about 3 times as many entries in his likely race as in the races any of the other shorties will contest (plenty of 'em are probably no good but there will likely be one or two massive improvers also).

Footpad just looks like he's going to be in a competitive race.

Also worth noting that 2 of the 5 races these shorties are likely to contest were won by horses who started at double figure odds last year.
Report wellchief February 12, 2018 10:28 PM GMT
Good luck with that Budd, everyone should get on the 'forum shortie plunge' Laugh

Hard to disagree with any of that Rease.  I'd never lay Samcro, but I'm not getting too carried away at the minute - I'm reserving judgement until 2 mins after the Ballymore before I hail him the second coming.

This year is a bit weird for me because haven't got involved in antepost at all (speculative bet on Bacardys for the Stayers a few months ago but that's it), and at this point I'd normally be having some juicy prices about those listed above.  I suppose when you haven't backed them at big odds you evaluate their chances a lot more critically and look for holes that you normally wouldn't because its a much bigger risk backing them at their current odds.

Wish I did have the nice prices as usual, but I know I'd probably have chucked away loads on non runners by now, so can't have it both ways.
Report duffy February 13, 2018 3:25 AM GMT
Chief

You can't deduce from what he's done since the Supreme that he's improved to any degree, I'd argue that he only needed to run to that form to achieve what he's done, Altior absolutely drilled him by the way.... best 2 mile hurdler in Britain for the past 10 years, that's some statement, the likes of Binocular would have way too much toe for him.

Des

As good as a top notch Faugheen and Annie Power!!!, That's a wind up..right?Shocked
Report duffy February 13, 2018 4:06 AM GMT
CCM,

Yorkhill's last run is not one to judge him on, in every race he runs he always takes a strong hold, on this day he was flat and Townend had to niggle him to get to the first fence!!!, he was clearly not himself, when he's right he has bags of toe, if he was right he would tank through a 2 mile race IMO.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2018 6:31 AM GMT
Same time as Faugheen did,and MTOY gives a reason to say that BD is on a par with Annie.

If you want to use the formbook,its all there.

Faugheen beat Arctic Fire a length or so ridden out and 11 year old Hfly.
No better than last years CH imo.
They ran both in the same time on similar ground both ridden to the line,so we know BD can match Faugheen.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2018 6:49 AM GMT
Having said that though, i do actually think that Annie Power with her allowance would have won every Champion Hurdle going back probably as far as Istabraq.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2018 6:59 AM GMT
Duffy
In the context of the Champion Hurdle.......which races should we judge Yorkhill on?
Report Can't Catch Me February 13, 2018 8:04 AM GMT
Duffy. I know you aren't on your own with that viewpoint and I know his style of racing suggests so, but strictly on the formbook, what piece of form suggests he has any chance against a 2m specialist in a Championship race like BD?
Report Desmond Orchard February 13, 2018 9:29 AM GMT
Not a wind up Duffy. All three won CH of similar quality in a similar fashion and showed a high level of form away from Cheltenham, winning races with contemptuous ease.
Faugheen and AP won a CH each which BD has already achieved and by mosts reckoning will win this one.
If you can explain to me, rather than just expressing incredulity at my view, why you think they are so far ahead of BD, I may change my opinion.
BTW, I already know that he ‘only’ came a fast finishing third in the hottest Supreme since the classic that Al Ferof won.

As for Yorkhill, I’d be surprised given the season he has had if he were to turn up at Cheltenham at all. It requires a monumental leap of faith and complete disregard for the form book to think he would be competitive in a champion hurdle. Someone mentioned that he would be sub-3/1, now that’s a wind-up, Shirley?
Report firstimevisor February 13, 2018 10:41 AM GMT
Agree with dessie re yorkhill - there's obviously a problem with the horse and it wouldn't matter whether its 2m or 3m, hurdles or fences, I can't see him turning up next month.

Race times tell us nothing other than the pace a race was run at, no more than that.Nichols Canyon's third place finish would have won him most Champion Hurdles if you judged it on times.

I would argue that the best 2 British trained 2m hurdlers of the last 20 years, at least since Rooster Booster, are MTOY and The New One. In their prime they were miles ahead of the rest and for five seasons now they have been in the top 3.In their prime they were in an exceptional era of elite 2 milers. Buveur D'air has to stay at the top for a few more seasons to be considered a great but he's not there yet.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2018 12:16 PM GMT
Yes agree re race times, I was just using them as a way of saying that BD has shown he can get from start to finish as quick as Faugheen can,and so can be compared to a horse a lot consider to be great.As some are saying BD is far from that, I think in the context its a valid point.

Yes I would say MTOY is up there for recent ones,and had he settled better would have a better race record and at least one Churdle to his name.
Not so sure about TNO though.
Report duffy February 13, 2018 7:03 PM GMT
If MTOY's settled better a few years back that he does now he would undoubtedly be a CH winner, a horse you will not find in recent years that did not fulfill his huge potential down to ruining his chances time after time, such a shame Hendo and his team couldn't nail that, no fault there though, it was an impossible job.

Des,

BD's run in the Supreme was in my book the best piece of form he's produced, an excellent performance in a very hot Supreme, I certainly wouldn't, and have not called it "only" 3rd, however all 3 probably aren't world beaters, and any of the other 2, should they have carried on hurdling would have expectedly probably defeated the same opponents as BD has.

Imagine if Altior was given a hurdling campaign the season after, it's fair to expect that he would have destroyed BD in much the same way he did in the Supreme and people wouldn't be saying that BD is the best hurdler for the past 10 years!!!! Altior very much might have been though!

Altior was sent chasing as it is viewed that he could achieve anything, but BD, very much the bridesmaid was, also sent chasing which was ultimately aborted and he has simply filled a void in the hurdling division quality wise, which being 3rd in a very good Supreme allows him to do as there is a void in the open hurdling division.

Annie Power and particularly Faugheen travelled at such a strong pace and then quickened off of it, BD has shown us that when in a race that produces those conditions he is caught out, Altior left him for dead with BD staying on in third, this was BD running in the best quality race he has yet to encounter and showed the horse he is, a good horse but vulnerable to something that can proper quicken up at the end or keep up a searching gallop throughout, in short, a real top class 2 mile hurdler.

In BD'S CH he did not quicken up at the end, he outstayed the field, he ran past PM a short runner!! over 2 at Cheltenham, certainly over hurdles.

budd

I for one aren't really interested in race times on judging how good a horse is, how a race is run can be tailored to achieve all sorts of good/bad times, that's why from time to time you hear such things as horse A is track record holder over a given distance....horse who? that donkey!!!

As for what piece of form I can point to of Yorkhill's over 2 miles to show why he could win a CH, or CC for that matter, there is absolutely none, but as I say, I pretty much judge all my punting ideas on feel and impression and some performances stick in my mind.

Although Yorkhill's Neptune can be picked apart with regards Yanworth, I believe sometimes you can just isolate a single horses performance and just see something special, the race was over further than 2 miles, true, but he absolutely pulled Walsh's arms out the whole way and still really quickened up like a top class animal off the home bend, that showed me a star to be honest, that over 2 miles on that day would have suited him even better.

It's no surprise that after the race Walsh was producing comments in much the same way that he did with regards to Faugheen and Vautour before. I accept that Yorkhill is a tricky horse to figure out and something is not right, but before it's too late I hope they get him to the race course over 2 miles again when he's right so he can show his true capability.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2018 7:28 PM GMT
well we have to agree to disagree re BD,
I think hes improved and has shown a turn of foot in his Churdle victory.
Altior was a better novice hurdler,probably simply a better horse,maybe time will tell us hes one of the best we have seen.
I have no problem with that,but no way does it mean BD is not a real good Champion Hurdler.On that time will tell as well i hope.

As for Yorkhill,i hope one day he proves you right with the belief you have.
Report impossible123 February 13, 2018 8:46 PM GMT
Should Faugheen and Yorkhill head to the Champion Hurdle (CH) it is no foregone conclusion Walsh will choose Faugheen over Yorkhill given that Faugheen is lacking sparkle at present, and aging with issues; if he chooses Yorkhill (Melon is not in contention even if running) the market will respond positively hoping that Ruby might be able to work the oracle with Yorkhill.

I think connections of Yorkhill have made a catalogue of errors regards the running plans of Yorkhill this season. Firstly, starting off in 3m chase 1st time out, then to 2m very soon after despite the horse breaking a bone in his previous race; nothing to lose if he pops over hurdles again if heading to the Festival. Here's hoping.
Report sageform February 13, 2018 8:49 PM GMT
I laid Apples Jade and Footpad a month ago on the basis that a lot could go wrong in 2 months but as the Festival gets closer, I'm not sure it was a good idea. I'm happier with the Footpad bet despite the recent win because if it is good ground at Cheltenham they will go very fast which makes any novice about a 1 in 5 chance to fall or make a serious error.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2018 9:08 PM GMT
Not sure it really matters which one Walsh chooses.
He will know hes likely to be placing at best.
Report wellchief February 13, 2018 9:42 PM GMT
Duffy, the 10 year comment related to British runners only, no way do I think BD is the best hurdler in 10 years.

Since 2007, the British winners or placed in Champion Hurdles are: Katchit, Punjabi, Osana, Celestial Halo, Kyber Kim, Zaynar, Binocular, Peddlers Cross, Rock on Ruby, Overturn, Countrywide Flame, My Tent or Yours, The New One, Beveur D'Air.

I don't think it's laughable at all that Beveur D'air is at the top of that list.  He won his Champion Hurdle as decisively as any other recently, and is still improving (he was only 6).  Some may call it a weak Champion, but the current top 3 in the Arkle betting were in there so can't be that bad.

I disagree and say he has definitely improved - maybe his best form figure of '3' is behind Altior, but by your own admission about Yorkhill, you use feel and impression to gauge performance and I get the impression that Beveur D'air is a much stronger horse, a slicker jumper and all round better than he was 2 years ago.

Beveur D'air went into the Supreme having only ran in two low key novice hurdles (a maiden and a class 4 novice @ 2/11) - he hadn't been in a battle, Altior had ran in 4 (one where he had to fight to hold off Maputo at Kempton) and ran in a Grade 1 bumper, so not inconceivable that Beveur D'air would improve, he was probably one of the most inexperienced going into the Supreme.

The aborted chase campaign to fill a 2m hurdle void may be true, but irrelevant imo.  Big Bucks is one of the greatest 3m hurdlers of all time and a 'failed' chaser; Annie Power only ended up in the Champion Hurdle to fill a void left by Faugheen's injury; the fact is all three won a Championship race that wasn't their intended target to begin with.

Re the comparison with Altior, the two will always be linked because of that Supreme run.  Don't get me wrong, he probably is the best horse in training (his Supreme win and his demolition of Fox Norton as a novice were fantastic), but he did win an awful Arkle renewal, and imo that is likely not a patch on this years and Beveur D'airs Champion Hurdle was a better run than Altior's Arkle.
Report duffy February 14, 2018 12:47 AM GMT
Chief

Yes, good point regarding the feel and perception that I apportion to Yorkhill, the real issue for me is that I don't get that from BD at all, I don't say too myself "wow, that's impressive, this horse looks to me that he'd beat proper grade 1 horses" when I watch his runs.

I disagree with budd on the turn of foot, I maintain he has not got a real turn of foot, watch from the turn in in the CH, he wears down PM and is going away, but from a beaten horse, he outstayed his rivals. The appearance of a horse going away at the end of the race does not automatically suggest speed or that he's quickened up, the horses behind could be fading and he just keeps going, the best example of this in recent CH's is HF, he absolutely outstayed his rivals who had cut their throats earlier on and he stayed on past finished horses, there was precisely zero acceleration or turn of foot involved

Look at AP, Faugheen and Yorkhill in his Neptune, turning for home when all three clearly  "accelerate" away from their rivals and again the fact that Faugheen only beat Arctic Fire by a diminishing margin, matters not, Faugheen had gone steady, turning in those up with him had the same shot but he stepped on the gas and the race was over, that moment BD would be left behind IMO, it's the rare ability to put that period of acceleration in at a telling moment in the race which instantly wins the race, that's the special bit.

In that list of british horses I'd put both Binocular and MTOY'S clearly ahead of BD, although Tent didn't win a CH, I think the natural ability he possessed in his pomp put him ahead of several horses that did win CH's. TNO too in his pomp, which like Tent was 3/4 years ago, the argument of could TNO win a CH that we all had back then and one that I was firmly against, I think that if he was that horse now, I'd be in the yes he could camp, because what he lacked against that opposition, wouldn't be negated against the current crop. The rest of that list I agree are not great and BD probably would be entitled to be in the argument with them, although Peddlers Cross is one that it's unfortunate we never got to see the best of as he had that special look about him.

Those 4 aside it's not a very impressive role of honour at all really is it, so yes BD would certainly be entitled to be placed nearer the top than bottom but It's not saying much really.
Report buddeliea February 14, 2018 6:33 AM GMT
Chief
Some real good points re his age and how much he looks to,and indeed entitled to improve from a very inexperienced novice season.Dont think theres any doubt hes much stronger and all round better horse than 2 years ago.

Duffy
As i have said before when talking about BD,i simply see a horse that jumps as a Churdler should,travels really well,has a turn of foot and has the engine to get home strong.....in my eyes the perfect Champion Hurdler.
As to where he is in a pecking order of Champions,hard to say,different races,horses,eras, etc etc,but all i have really to go on is his time(yeh i know!!)and the impression i get from watching him.
Maybe sometime soon he will get the opposition that will make him more convincing for others to feel the same.


Anyway Duffy, i take and respect your views, and as i said, we agree to disagree mate,we could go on for ever on this.
Report sageform February 14, 2018 7:44 AM GMT
Top class horses don't always impress during the early stages of a race. Even Altior didn't seem to be going quite as well as Politologue at halfway on Saturday, nor did Native River but like Buveur (who looked in trouble 2 out to my eye recently), they don't pull and only accelerate away when asked by their rider which is a wonderful asset. In contrast, Sprinter Sacre always looked impressive the whole way round in a race so there are plenty of examples of both ways of running. I prefer the non pullers as they often trade at longer than SP in running.
Report wellchief February 14, 2018 8:06 AM GMT
All good discussion, although I still think Duffy is annoyed at me taking his Cheltenham fantasy stable crown off him last year Laugh

Suppose we'll have to agree to disagree on a few things, although I'll roll back the 10 year statement and add the word 'potentially', and I'll judge him in a couple of years once he's ran in a few more CH's and faced different opposition.

To me, whether a horse wins via a turn of foot or out stays them doesn't matter to be honest, it is the end result that matters. Using 3milers example, Kauto imo had a great change of speed at the end of his races whereas the likes of Denman just galloped them into the ground, hence the tank. Both very different but equally as effective.

After all this, watch T'chibello or something hose up in March!
Report wellchief February 14, 2018 8:19 AM GMT
Re the Supreme angle for judging horses, I know it's the only time BD and Altior have met, so fair enough, but because it's a novice race early in their career with some horses having vastly different amounts of experience in general, I think it's a hard race to judge best horse.

Again, not saying BD is better than Altior but if they did meet again I don't think Altior would have it all his own way. From memory horses like Sprinter, MTOY, Binocular, Darlan and Jezki all lost in the Supreme but we're arguably the best horse in the race (although MTOY and Jezki were in the same race).

Just trying to say that once they are all at a similar level of age and experience, that may be a better time to judge rather than a really early career run.

This post relates to the Supreme generally, not specifically BD and Altior.
Report buddeliea February 14, 2018 8:39 AM GMT
Yes absolutely agree Chief.
Think its what got me going a bit on this thread...the fact that people were judging BD on his supreme performance, which I regard as not the way to judge a Champion Hurdler, or indeed the likes of Sprinter Sacre, who is a perfect example.
As it happens,although he got beat well by Altior and Min, there were some proper horses behind him as well. Think that just proves your point.
Report Desmond Orchard February 14, 2018 10:36 AM GMT
It's interesting that you bring up Binocular Duffy, as he too was beaten in a Supreme. Presumably he was lucky that Capt Cee Bee went chasing? Given the quality of horses he convincingly beat in his Supreme, Nichols was a fool not to keep Al ferof over hurdles, as surely he would've won a hatful?
The goal, when breeding NH horses, is to produce a top class chaser. The best one's go chasing, including some who have won a champion hurdle, like Dawn Run and Rock on Ruby.
I remember after Faugheen won the Neptune, WPM saying that they knew he was good, but weren't expecting that as he wasn't in Vautours league - they sent the better horse chasing. They did the same with Douvan the following year who WPM said could be his best ever (and so one assumes he thought was better than either of the previous years novice hurdle winners?).
I agree that Altior is most likely still a better horse than BD, even allowing that horses mature and improve at different rates. But that was got bugger all to do with whether BD is a decent winner of the CH just like Faugheen. I agree that if Altior had stayed over the smaller obstacles, he would be a world beater - but his name doesn't rhyme with 'machine' and so there would still be those claiming that he wouldn't be in Faugheen's league.
Report duffy February 14, 2018 2:32 PM GMT
but his name doesn't rhyme with 'machine' and so there would still be those claiming that he wouldn't be in Faugheen's league.



Ooh, you b1tch!!
Report Desmond Orchard February 14, 2018 3:49 PM GMT
Ha Ha Ha!!! Fair play, Duffy.
No doubt this will be picked up again in 4 weeks time. But for now, bon chance mon braves!
Report duffy February 14, 2018 4:41 PM GMT
Laugh Good banter respect to all, apart from Well Chief who stole my title off of me last March...g1t!
Report impossible123 February 14, 2018 5:03 PM GMT
BD is not on my shortlist, why? No value (on merit), and the race could be gatecrashed by either Yorkhill or Min or Samcro,...cat amongst the pigeons, I know.
Report HaylingBilly February 14, 2018 7:52 PM GMT
Really i123. Nobody guessed that. Let it go man...............
Report wellchief February 14, 2018 10:28 PM GMT
Haha, not long for you to wrestle the crown back off me Duffy.

Beveur D'air will be my captain Laugh
Report DECALEC February 16, 2018 9:55 PM GMT
Enjoyed the last 61 posts thank God my tablet didn't die will get it charged 4 the next 61 good reading lads
Report wellchief February 20, 2018 6:20 PM GMT
Had a little dabble at the Skybet 11/4 price boost on Apple's Jade and Samcro
Report Deptford February 20, 2018 8:39 PM GMT
They offered me £1 ^ fooking disgrace, false advertising
Report wellchief February 20, 2018 8:41 PM GMT
Let me have £25, maybe you've won too much off them in the past Laugh
Report buddeliea February 20, 2018 8:58 PM GMT
Is it worth it?
Report wellchief February 20, 2018 9:15 PM GMT
Happy with the extra point Budd.  Smallest punting festival for me in 10 years, so happy with any little advantage.  It's one bet I probably would have done anyway.
Report buddeliea February 20, 2018 9:19 PM GMT
Fair enough mate.
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