Cheltenham Festival

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07 Feb 18 12:57
Date Joined: 23 Apr 12
| Topic/replies: 135 | Blogger: maam8mandingo's blog
I can't get away from this horse for the Gold Cup. Looking at the field, all the runners have a question mark surrounding them in some shape or form. I thought Killultagh Vic was running a huge race on Sunday and feel he has plenty of improvement in him. I think he's worth an each way poke even if he has a few flaws himself! Thoughts?
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Report BigField February 7, 2018 3:30 PM GMT
I completely agree but I'll probably just do win only on here, just not sure whether to do it soon in case it gets backed in or wait til the day
Report duffy February 7, 2018 3:36 PM GMT
Watch the horse through the early part of the race, he jumped very poorly indeed, he must retain some engine to get where he did, but on quicker festival ground at a faster pace, he'd be in a heap of trouble early on, love the horse but not for me in a GC.
Report maam8mandingo February 7, 2018 6:47 PM GMT
@ bigfield I think at 10/1 12/1 NRNB he’s a very backable each way price and I can see him being much shorter on the day particular if Mullins has a good festival! @duffy I agree his jumping does need improving and he is prone to mistakes (very novice like) at a few of his fences which is a concern especially round Cheltenham but surely he’s worth a punt at the given prices!
Report BigField February 7, 2018 8:12 PM GMT
my thoughts exactly! but will be playing win only because that's how I do it :
Report BigField February 7, 2018 8:12 PM GMT
Report maam8mandingo February 7, 2018 8:15 PM GMT
Bigger returns! Bigger profits!
Report BigField February 7, 2018 8:29 PM GMT
Bigger heartache when it comes 2nd haha
Report maam8mandingo February 7, 2018 9:35 PM GMT
Hahaha that’s very true! I’ll be happy mind!
Report firstimevisor February 7, 2018 10:53 PM GMT
He has a proper chance in the Gold Cup, assuming he's recovered from the fall, and all things being equal he really should learn an awful lot from the experience of the Irish Gold Cup.

He's a novice in all but name and that was some performance at the weekend to come back from 2 years off and running over fences for only the third time in his career. Yanworth and Finians Oscar, to put that into perspective,have each run 4 times over fences.

I don't understand how he appears to be still so underrated. When he won the Punchestown novice hurdle he beat Thistlecrack fair and square, and they pulled well clear of Shaneshill, Sub Lieutenant, No More Heros etc and he has shown beyond doubt now that he's as good as ever,probably better than ever, jumping fences.
Report easygold February 8, 2018 1:13 AM GMT
That looked a very weak contest on Sunday, and although I love the horse to bits I feel it could be a next year horse for Gold Cup. If they put headgear on the horse I may have a token bet, because the quirks he showed on Sunday certainly won`t be tolerated at Cheltenham.
Report buddeliea February 8, 2018 7:50 AM GMT
Possible he could be suited to the Gold Cup,was certainly running well other day.
Looking at his form though I have my doubts,lot of soft and heavy at distances a lot less than 3m2f.Had his problems as well.Gut feeling is he would struggle with the conditions of a Gold Cup.
Good bit of form over 3m hurdles though.
All in all 14 does not get me tempted, but hes one that could prove me wrong, and may be wise to keep an open mind.
Report Ramruma February 8, 2018 1:53 PM GMT
@maam8mandingo -- I think at 10/1 12/1 NRNB he’s a very backable each way price and I can see him being much shorter on the day particular if Mullins has a good festival!

Wrong question imo, or right question but wrong timeframe. For me, the question is not will Killultagh Vic be shorter on the day but will he be shorter the week before -- by that time, we will have a much clearer idea of the likely fields for the Gold Cup and the Ryanair, and the going, but the price will not have been affected by acca's running on from the first two or three days.

Now almost all the books are NRNB (and even the ones that aren't are often the same sorts of prices) there is not much scope for many horses to shorten so in most cases, including KV's, I'd rather wait till March. Yes, he might come in a couple of points but equally he might be pushed out a couple of points on the day.
Report duffy February 8, 2018 3:34 PM GMT
Watch to the first mile the other day before you back him would be my thoughts.
Report duffy February 8, 2018 3:36 PM GMT
Plus, would you really want to be backing a horse that just want ar5e over t1t the race before...not me.
Report buddeliea February 8, 2018 8:49 PM GMT
Well someones backing him price 10 now !!!

Crazy price imo
Report firstimevisor February 8, 2018 10:38 PM GMT
A little surprised at some of the comments. That wasn't a weak contest by any means. Edwulf was a shock yes but he's probably a far better horse than we realize. Outlander has loads of top class form, especially around leopardstown. Djakadam. Minella Rocco, Our Duke and Valseur Lido are all proper Grade 1 horses and Annibale Fly is now too good for handicaps. Has there been a deeper quality 3 mile chase run this season? And to my eyes KV was about to win convincingly.

Yes his jumping was novicey but that's because he is a novice and it was noticable how it improved as the race went on, until the last which he cleared ok but made a classic novice mistake on landing. All the headgear in the world wouldn't have changed anything and he won't be wearing any headgear in the future because he doesn't need any.

He doesn't need soft or heavy ground,its just that that's usually all he gets and he'll be just fine on good if that's what we get in March.

Other than Might Bite( who is more than capable of beating himself), there's nothing much to fear but I would like to see him get another run before Cheltenham.
Report easygold February 8, 2018 10:59 PM GMT
Opinions are great to have.
Report easygold February 8, 2018 11:26 PM GMT
Hey Firstimevisor " ur early Samcro comment" 6-1 or upwards and you have a decent bet. Anything under 5-1 at this stage is absolutely bonkers. LOL
Report firstimevisor February 8, 2018 11:42 PM GMT
Easygold, the celebrations are a little premature are they not. He still has to get there, run in that race and then win it, which is something Denman didn't manage to do.

I hope he does run in the Ballymore for the sake of those on at fancy prices.

PS nice use of quotation marks there.
Report Quevega06 February 9, 2018 12:13 AM GMT
For me Killultagh Vic wont last past the first circuit. The horse should be running in the world hurdle
Report Quevega06 February 9, 2018 12:13 AM GMT
His Jumping of a fence is shocking
Report easygold February 9, 2018 12:43 AM GMT
You do know the trading button is PINK..... I have nothing to worry about if he runs or not..... Laugh the kiddies corner is over there.
Report duffy February 9, 2018 1:46 AM GMT

Completely agree re: World Hurdle, I requested him to be added to the race after the race on Sunday.

He didn't make a novice mistake either, he completely twisted his rear end in mid air, which is something he did at one earlier in the race too.

He's a big fav of mine, in fact I'm claiming forum ownership of him after I put a thread up tipping him up before the Martin Pipe, it's back there somewhereSilly and the way he got himself into the race shows just what an engine he's still got.

I'd be all over him for the WH but the stable need him desperately for the elusive GC.
Report easygold February 9, 2018 2:14 AM GMT
His hurdling was poor too on debut.
Report duffy February 9, 2018 2:35 AM GMT
True, but on balance he's probably got a better chance of coming back safely over the smaller obstacles, quicker ground faster pace he'd be in real bother in the GC.
Report buddeliea February 9, 2018 7:42 AM GMT
Yeh have to agree re jumping, and that goes for any horse in this years Gold Cup.
The way Might Bite runs, a horse is gonna have to jump well,otherwise far too much ground will be lost during the race.
If one is gonna take a chance on a novice than bigger odds than 10 are needed imo.
Nowt wrong with taking a chance with odds that reflect that though and fair play to those that have,but current odds no way reflect that imo.
I backed Rocco for this and he can jump rather dodgy at times but he was 25, plus he has ran well in this race before.
Definitly Red is bigger odds,a good jumper and lto imo as impressive as any Gold Cup contender I have seen recently. To me hes a bigger danger to Might Bite than KV.
Report HaylingBilly February 9, 2018 8:06 AM GMT
Of the outsiders I have a fancy for Bachasson at 50/1 NRNB. Might go Ryanair but if they put him in here he has the sort of profile that might just work in a Gold Cup.
Report buddeliea February 9, 2018 8:26 AM GMT
Yeh ive had a bit of that as well....never know,unexposed improving type at big odds.
Report duffy February 9, 2018 1:30 PM GMT
Rocco will always catch my eye at bigger odds because he's run very well in the race before and also because there is that ongoing thought with him that there is something that there is a stack of untapped potential waiting to be unlocked with him if they can only find it!!! earlier in the season Jonjo was very bullish about his chances for the GC this year.
Report buddeliea February 9, 2018 1:34 PM GMT
Yeh,and hes drifted since his last run,so gonna top up.
Bizarre run last time I thought,far too close to the pace than he normally is.
Report buddeliea February 10, 2018 9:13 AM GMT
Just watched Irish Gold Cup again.
KV definitely a bit iffy jumping early,which he cannot afford at Cheltenham.
He did jump better as the race progressed,aside from the last of course.
Would not like to say what would have happened had he jumped the last ok,looked like he and Edwulf were going fairly similar at the time,maybe KV going slightly better,but certainly no given he would have won.
Not sure re the quality of the race as it panned out,Djakadam not the horse he was,Our Duke made a race ending mistake,and Outlander although good round Leopardstown is not Gold Cup class imo.
Still cant believe the current price to be honest.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 10, 2018 9:21 AM GMT
When is the last time a horse won the Gold Cup that fell in their race prior?

Has it happened before? (sure it must have but I cannot remember any since 2000 anyway)
Report GI MAC February 10, 2018 10:59 AM GMT
I just watched the race again and followed KC around. His early leaps just looked very exuberant to me and not so much dodgy, he was on a very tight reign early doors, and looked to me like a young horse who just wanted to get on with it. I wouldn't be inclined to view it negatively, it was only his third chase start, and his fencing improved as the race went on.

I'm sure if the race was run again Paul Townend would do it diferently at the last and make the horses mind up, not sure this was his finest moment. The horses inexperience and this fall are big negatives for winning the Gold Cup; the current price of 10/1 is poor value considering you can back RTR at the same price. However the horse is class, is a festival winner and will have Ruby on board come March. Trainer has reported the horse to have recovered well from his fall.
Report firstimevisor February 10, 2018 11:00 AM GMT
Most Gold Cup winners have had falls at some stage. Not all were perfect jumpers. Kauto Star had 3 or 4 and also caused quite a few heart-stopping moments where he somehow stayed on his feet.Moscow Flyer fell regularly but that didn't stop him being one of the best 2 milers we have seen. I'm almost certain Mr Mulligan fell in a KG prior to his GC.

Yes it is a concern that KV's confidence may be affected by the fall but he had only run twice over fences before that and when he got into a rhythm, jumping upsides the old pros, his jumping was good and he really should have learned an awful lot from that experience. There's a possibility he could run in the Ryanair but wherever he turns up he'll be going there with a live chance. I don't see much wrong with his GC price,he's entitled to more improvement than any other GC horse, and I'd struggle to see how the likes of Djakadam or Minella Rocco are going to turn things around with him from last weekend, though I could see Our Duke improving a lot for the run.
Report firstimevisor February 10, 2018 11:48 AM GMT
Just remembered Dawn Run. How could i forget - my all time favourite horse - she fell prior to the GC . Actually there are quite a few similarities with her and KV. They both got injuries as novices, both fell on their third run over fences. Dawn Run won a GC on only her fourth run over fences and KV(hopefully) will try the same trick.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 10, 2018 11:53 AM GMT
Cheers, before my time she was so didn't realise she did.
Report buddeliea February 10, 2018 12:37 PM GMT
Well Rocco has had only one race in mind all season,and this trainer does that.
Not sure why he was up near the pace this time, but i would think and hope he will be back off the pace for the race hes being trained for.
I expect  him to reverse the form.......if he dont fall!! Think he is suited to the Gold Cup as his run last year proved,not so sure KV is,plus KV is still inexperienced at this level.
As i said before though,i will keep an open mind,cos these sorts can prove one wrong,but for me his price aint big enough at the moment.
Agree re Our Duke though,big player if error free imo.
Report impossible123 February 10, 2018 2:11 PM GMT
Did Don Cossack not fall in the King George and won the Gold Cup? Or did he have a prep race prior?

I do agree that KV would be better served running in the Stayers - he's the only horse to beat Thistlecrack over hurdles, I believe.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 10, 2018 2:12 PM GMT
Don Cossack won the Kinloch Brae in between the King George and Gold Cup
Report cyclops February 11, 2018 4:53 PM GMT
A horse who has run in 3 chases, fallen in the most recent and all but fallen in the one before is not one I could back to win a Gold Cup, even in a poor year. Particularly when you look at some less than convincing leaps throughout Sunday's contest. Add to that an unknown trip and the fact that 152 Edwulf might have beaten him (had not been asked for his effort when KV fell) and I think he is the worst value in the race at present. And I don't think the stable has spoken of whether he has recovered from his fall or not. From the Mullins yard, that news may take a while to seep through.
Report unclepuncle February 11, 2018 5:06 PM GMT
Mullins said: "Killultagh Vic is fine and came out of the race remarkably well.

"He isn't back riding out yet but hopefully he will shortly."

He is defintiely one of the possible winners so 10/1 is about right.
I can see him going off shorter, maybe 2nd fav, espeically if Ruby / Mullins have a half decent Festival.
Report buddeliea February 11, 2018 5:56 PM GMT
Well if hes 2nd fav, theres a lot of mad punters around!!
Report buddeliea February 11, 2018 8:26 PM GMT
Looking at that last run,KV and Edwulf should be about the same price,and certainly that price should not be 2nd fav!!!
Edwulf was available at 30 on here earlier today,imo they should both be around 20's.
Report cyclops February 12, 2018 3:40 PM GMT
Thanks for the info, uncle.
However, it seems he's missed a week and may miss longer. On the old rule that every day of missed work equals two days needed to get back to where you were, time may get very short for him.
Agree with budd that he and Edwulf should be similarly priced.
Report wellchief February 12, 2018 6:49 PM GMT
For Killultagh Vic's small owners, a runner in the Gold Cup is probably a once in a lifetime event, so good luck to them, but I personally think he'd have a better chance in the Ryanair.

I was all over him for the JLT before he got injured, and I know he beat Thistlecrack as a novice over 3m, but I think a fast pace 2.5m would suit him down to the ground, knowing he'll have stamina reserves up the hill.

Don't get me wrong, nearly everyone would run in the Gold Cup, but at 10/1 nrnb for both races, I'd back him quite heavily in a Ryanair but wouldn't touch him at that price in a Gold Cup.
Report firstimevisor February 12, 2018 11:45 PM GMT
10-1 NRNB looks very generous to me, not saying he's a good thing but he's certainly one of the more likely winners in a weak looking Gold Cup.

Last years GC form has completely fallen apart, it was a poor renewal and while SJ could again have a big say, the next 4 home Rocco, Native River, Djak and Saphir have done nothing since. The egg and spoon race NR won the other day didn't really tell us anything other than he's healthy.

Might Bite is a contender but I'm not nearly convinced about him at this stage. The King George was an awful race. He was all out to beat Double Shuffle a length with Tea For Two close up behind. Had Whisper run his race we would know a lot more but right now MB's GC price is based on beating Whisper twice as a novice and then beating 2 decent handicappers in the KG. I can't see how MB can be 7-2 when DS is 50-1.

Thistlecrack was a novice last year and I cant remember what his GC price went to after winning another weak KG but I think it was 2-1 or even less. If Killultagh Vic had negotiated the last in the Irish GC he would have achieved more at the same stage. He is a proper horse with a serious engine and there are no stamina or ground issues with him. If his jumping holds up, and there's every chance it will, then the 10-1 could look huge.
Report duffy February 13, 2018 3:32 AM GMT
There's every chance it won't too, 10's is too short IMO, his jumping was very poor early on, when you consider a quicker pace on likely quicker ground, he'll be too far back and under pressure far too early.

The horse has a habit of twisting his rear end at some fences, he did it earlier in the race, it throws his balance off...not for me.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2018 6:22 AM GMT

Worst priced horse in the race imo.
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