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maelduin
09 Jan 18 15:19
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Date Joined: 23 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 2,030 | Blogger: maelduin's blog
Thought i might start this one off myself now that NRNB is in full swing.

B365 - Gwencily Berbas @ 33/1 (1/4 odds first 4) 2m4f Novice Handicap Chase

Same combination that plotted Tully East in the Grand Annual last year. Has been running over 2m but all his decent form is over further. Decent hurdler and 2nd to Our Duke over 2m4f. Would prefer soft ground but i'm willing to take a chance at the prices. GL

Another one was Squouateur but not backable at current prices.
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Report easygold January 9, 2018 4:53 PM GMT
Hi Maelduin, it was the Close Brothers event last year, if you check out this thread last year you might see somebody landed on this fellow by luckExcitedCool
Report easygold January 9, 2018 5:00 PM GMT
Gwencily Berbas..... is more than likely going to need help by the BHA to get in
Report simdog84 January 9, 2018 5:08 PM GMT
Tycoon Prince if given anything around 140 for the Close brothers or the Brown Advisory
Report easygold January 9, 2018 5:26 PM GMT
Hi Simdog, my guess he will be too high in the ratings for the race.
Report Can't Catch Me January 9, 2018 6:10 PM GMT
Agree totally about Squouateur, but the price really is poor.

I thought Demi Sang looked an ideal type for the Novice Handicap on Day One. Nice performance on Sunday as he looke dunlilely to get up approaching the last but won comfortably in the end and I don't think Avenir d'Une Vie was really stopping.

Willie mentioned the Arkle post race, but will wait and see.

Think Movewiththetimes is being plotted for a handicap too.
Report maelduin January 9, 2018 6:21 PM GMT
You're right easygold. My fault. Nice call.

Gwencily Berbas is currently rated 134 in Ireland so you might as well out put him up to 139 - 140 when he goes across the pond. Will definitely be a close call either way. GL
Report cufcno1 January 9, 2018 8:13 PM GMT
Mate of mine convinced movewithetimes being aimed at the novice chase on the Tuesday 2 mile 4
Report Can't Catch Me January 9, 2018 9:16 PM GMT
Me too cufc! Already backed him for it.
Report BigField January 10, 2018 3:02 PM GMT
Le Breuil for me, the ground has been too soft for him this season so far to win a big handicap but the horse certainly has it in him, I reckon Pauling will be targeting one of the Festival handicaps
Report Desmond Orchard January 10, 2018 5:36 PM GMT
The hardest part about the Novices 'cap on the Tuesday is getting into it. I think 3lb covered the field last year, so trainers need to be very clever about their charges campaigns.
For that reason its a NRNB race only.
I like to have a go at the 3 miler on the Tuesday as these horses don't have too many other options to muddy the water, and my pin has come down on Go Conquer. Jonjo is in the doldrums at the moment, but always seems to come good for the Festival. This one ran well in the race last year and has had a decent start to this campaign. Good ground is a bonus for this fella. Rated 151, he's about the right sort of mark to win a race like this. 20/1 NRNB or 25/1 without the insurance.
I'd quite fancy Gold Present as he seems to have all the right credentials for the race but his mark of 155 could easily see him humping 11-12, which despite UTPT's performance last year is never ideal. I also suspect that he's better with a bit of give, which is by no means guaranteed. At the prices he doesn't make much appeal right now.
Singlefarmpayment always goes off favourite, wherever he runs, for some reason, as he seems to never get his head in front. But all the near misses have seen his mark steadily rise and I wonder now if he's in the grip. Readily opposed at around 10/1.
Report Quevega06 January 14, 2018 10:08 AM GMT
I bet Tully East last year and I think he's another good bet for the Browns this year. Hated the Cheltenham ground LTO and sitting nicely rated on 144,with horses finishing behind him at last year's festival all running constantly and rated above him Tully East is still well handicapped.
Report BigField January 14, 2018 8:07 PM GMT
With regards to Le Breuil, think it'd have a superb chance in the Martin Pipe, the horse has a current mark of 139 so would get in, I reckon they'll keep the horse away until then.
If this is the case (and I have no inside info to go with this, just the horse wants decent ground and imo is very well handicapped) then I'll be lumping on
Report DontBeSakhee January 14, 2018 8:11 PM GMT
Bigfield - I hope not as I've backed Le Breuil for the Coral Cup at 33 AP and 20 NRNB. Lol.
Report BigField January 14, 2018 8:14 PM GMT
Would it usually get in the Coral Cup off its mark of 139? It'd have just as good a chance in that one I'd imagine, just know it'd definitely get in the Martin Pipe that's why I mentioned that race
Report BigField January 14, 2018 8:16 PM GMT
I'd be all over 33s but would rather just take 50s on here or bigger at win only, don't think they have the coral cup or martin pipe on here yet though do they?
Report DontBeSakhee January 14, 2018 8:30 PM GMT
Coral Cup is available on here BF, but Me Breuil is second fav on the exchanges.

Hadn't really considered the 139 getting in, but having checked last year's field Robinshill ran off 139, Scoir Mear 138 and Bravissimo and Sure Reef both 136. It would be touch and go.

I suppose the other way of looking at it is; top of the weights in the MP, bottom in the Coral Cup.
Report BigField January 14, 2018 8:32 PM GMT
Ah fair enough, with Sure Reef getting on off 136 I'd be happy to take the gamble on Le Breuil getting in, will wait til payday to back the horse as I have an expensive week coming up lol
Report DontBeSakhee January 14, 2018 8:37 PM GMT
January is never cheap! Be lucky and however expensive it is, save a few pounds for Cheltenham Laugh
Report BigField January 14, 2018 8:38 PM GMT
Cheers mate you too, not to worry there's 2 paydays before Cheltenham so all is well :D
Report SOULDANCER January 18, 2018 8:13 AM GMT
GOLD PRESENT, Ultima h'cap chase 16-1...10-1 nrnb, strongly fancy this improver, top weight, hoping James Bowen gets the ride.
BEN DUNDEE, Martin Pipe h'cap hurdle 20-1...14-1 nrnb, taking a chance this is the one for Gordon Elliot. He made no secret that he wanted to win this and duly did last year. Though he had 3 runners in it the 12-1 winner a 9-1 and 20-1 so god knows if this is value.
Report BigField January 18, 2018 2:45 PM GMT
Le Breuil entered at both Aintree and Haydock this weekend, hoping it doesn't run!
Report BigField January 18, 2018 3:06 PM GMT
Sorry make that Ascot and Haydock, not Aintree.
Report DontBeSakhee January 18, 2018 9:11 PM GMT
Entered at Fontwell Sunday as well.

Would be staggered if he ran at Haydock. Trainer reckons running him at Aintree on heavy was a mistake.

The Ascot race is a G3 so if he runs and wins that, his mark will jump. Interestingly though the distance for that race is 2m3f.
Report BigField January 19, 2018 8:05 AM GMT
I agree, can't see it running at Haydock especially over the 2m7f trip, wonder what the ground will be like at Ascot, can't see the 2m3f trup being a problem there, fingers crossed he doesn't run! If he does then I hope it's soft going and his mark either remains the same of gets lowered a little
Report BigField January 20, 2018 12:33 PM GMT
Le Breuil a NR for Ascot happy days!!
Report DontBeSakhee January 20, 2018 12:56 PM GMT
Yes spotted that BF. Although it may be ground related, I suspect there may be further entries yet!
Report BigField January 20, 2018 2:03 PM GMT
yes most likely ground related, they're really running out of decent sized/prized handicaps over 2 and a half miles before Cheltenham so here's hoping they wait!
Report DontBeSakhee January 20, 2018 3:34 PM GMT
Agree. Although the smaller the pot the less likely the mark increase. Will gave to see what they do. Had a look the other day and a fair few of the most recent Coral Cup winners ran in Feb!
Report ReaseHeath January 21, 2018 12:44 PM GMT
just for info , the official reason for Le Breuil not running yesterday was a bruised foot...
Report BigField January 21, 2018 3:23 PM GMT
Thanks Rease
Report willie the milk January 22, 2018 8:26 PM GMT
Squouteur in the Kim Muir. Not that original I know but went off 5s for the race last year and was going alright when falling. Only had the 2 runs this season. Elliot will hopefully have it primed.
Report BigField January 22, 2018 8:45 PM GMT
DoneBeSakhee - been looking into both the Martin Pipe and Coral Cup and think you're right in saying Le Breuil should go for the Coral Cup - Pauling would want the best jockey available on this horse and the trip should be perfect for it, also probably more favourable to carry less weight than horses it's (imo) just as good/if not better than instead of more weight than horses it's more than likely better than.
Report DontBeSakhee January 22, 2018 10:27 PM GMT
Indeed BF. LB looks like a horse ahead of the handicapper, whether he's ahead enough to win a race as hot as the Coral Cup is another matter, but in the MP there's bound to be something lurking at the bottom which could scupper him.
Report BigField January 22, 2018 10:34 PM GMT
Agreed, when LB won that race impressively at Aintree last season I thought to myself "that's a horse worth a rating of 145" and would have expected it 12 months later to have improved more to a rating of 150 or so. I know that's just my humble opinion but to me that makes the horse 11lbs well in. I do truly believe the horse is better than it was last year but it just hasn't had the chance to show it. LB jumped well and travelled well on seasonal reappearance (if I remember rightly it blundered the 2nd last?) but that I can put down to the horse being tired. Then on his second race back this season he succumbed to the ground but still ran respectably, but that was all on class. For the first time at Cheltenham Pauling will have the horse fully wound up and the ground to suit, will be the biggest bet I've had in a handicap that's for sure :)
Report BigField January 22, 2018 10:38 PM GMT
Only thing I can't decide whether to back it now with at its biggest price of 25/1 (with 365, though they've limited my account but I've just got a new bank card so will register that and put on a couple losing bets on basketball in order to get a stake on LB) or wait until it hopefully goes bigger on here - I'll be betting win only regardless.
Report DontBeSakhee January 22, 2018 10:43 PM GMT
The Coral Cup has been a pig to me down the years. Kicks for Free being beaten a nose is an albatross around my neck. However I finally broke my duck with Diamond King and then followed up with Supasundae last year, so hoping for the hatrick.

A fool and his money are soon parted backing in handicaps this early, but I do like the look of this one and so given that B365 are out to 25 NRNB, the fool has availed himself again!
Report BigField January 23, 2018 9:34 PM GMT
Fingers crossed!!

Charli Parcs would have a good shout in the County I reckon, that is unless they target the horse for the Betfair hurdle.
Report DontBeSakhee January 23, 2018 10:24 PM GMT
Hey there BF.

I profoundly distrust CP after last year. I was hoping he'd be a NR last year after his fall in the Adonis as I had backed NRNB. Sadly it was not to be and he ran in the Triumph. Could be on a good mark though.

Another I have added is Forza Milan for the Pertemps. Always wary of a Jonjo plot horse and it wouldn't surprise me to see it run in Feb for a penalty and then hose up! Its form is reasonable as well.
Report DontBeSakhee January 23, 2018 10:27 PM GMT
Should've mentioned that at 25 with BillyHills concession (don't see what else it could run in), I'm reasonably happy that I'd get my money back if it doesn't get an entry.
Report BigField January 24, 2018 12:23 AM GMT
I too distrusted the horse having backed CP a few times last year (including at Cheltenham), however my faith in the horse was restored when he ran a gallant second in a good race on seasonal reappearance. His most recent run was just to keep him ticking over and his handicap mark down before whichever big handicap they decide to run him in.

That Forza Milan looks like a decent prospect, certainly one of those "well that's no big surprise" horses should it win at Cheltenham!
Report bluebirdfan January 28, 2018 3:18 PM GMT
Misterton in the County Hurdle
Report deepingfox January 28, 2018 9:51 PM GMT
Bluebird, agreed on Misterton. Kept away from winter ground and workable handicap mark.
Report Quevega06 January 28, 2018 10:40 PM GMT
I'm thinking the same bluebird
Report Quevega06 January 28, 2018 10:40 PM GMT
:-)
Report BigField January 29, 2018 5:29 PM GMT
good shout with misterton chaps
Report equine flew January 29, 2018 9:56 PM GMT
I will be backing HELLS KITCHEN wherever it turns up.  I think it will be the close brothers handicap race  (I did put this up on another thread before it won this season.)
Report bluebirdfan January 30, 2018 10:45 AM GMT
Hells Kitchen been given 145; that handy for the 0-145 race!!
Report Cash Is King January 30, 2018 10:58 AM GMT
Misterton ran well in the Greatwood despite the handicap of being ridden from the front with Tom Scudamore doing the steering. He appears well handicapped but it's rare that front runners win handicap hurdles at the Festival and if he needs to lead to be seen at his best then Aintree or Ayr would probably be better suited to that running style.
Report Jb23 February 13, 2018 12:02 PM GMT
Act of Valour has been given a mark of 136 for the Fred Winter. If he rocks up here, which I assume he will, he surely must have a great chance.

He should come on leaps and bounds for the better ground and being rated 97 on the flat gives him a touch of class. He beat 2 subsequent winners at Newcastle back before Christmas, notably Look My Way who has since come out and bolted up in and egg and spoon race at Ludlow before finishing second to Apples Shakira on Trials day. Look my Way has oddly been made favourite by a couple of firms at around 14-1 off of a mark of 135. Given he has the beating of him and is only rated a 1lb superior at around 20-1, he surely must be a nice angle into the race.

Since his victory at Newcastle, he has since ran behind We Have A Dream, a leading Triumph hope twice. Once on ground much to slow for his liking up at Mussleborough and the other time at Doncaster where he ran flat with the Stewards Report below:

Following the race, A. P. Heskin reported that ACT OF VALOUR, placed sixth, ran flat and the Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the gelding during routine testing failed to reveal any abnormalities.


With Paul Nicholls incredible record in the race it wouldn't surprise me to think he has been laid out for this since his win at Newcastle. He has the beating of the favourite, a nice official rating and will likely see improvement from the better ground. 20-1 to me looks to be a knocking bet each way in this.
Report duffy February 14, 2018 1:12 AM GMT
BON PAPA, in the Close brothers race, A total g1t of a horse who will need some performance from the jockey to coax him home, but a horse that IMO possesses a stack of ability and I'm sure is better than the 139 he is currently rated.

He travels like a dream through his races and was the last horse off the bridal in the Neptune last year before typically sticking his head in the air. In the Flogas the other day, whilst most were concentrating on Monalee and co, bon papa was hacking in behind and was just beginning to make ground on the snaff when he made a blunder that put paid to him.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some form of headgear on him wherever he turns up next, he's awkward but very classy I think.

He certainly does not want to be going anything more than 2 and a half miles so the novice handicap will be perfect where he'll get in nicely, you'll get your money's worth as he'll travel best, the jockey will earn his money at the business end...why did Carberry retire??Grin

A Mcmanus special I think.
Report Cash Is King February 14, 2018 11:32 AM GMT
Year after year this particular thread degenerates into a "spot the JP McManus plot horse" guessing game and a little piece of me dies with each successive post. No idea why people are still so fixated on JP McManus in 2018.

Here are a few horses that have nothing whatsoever to do with JP McManus which I hope will run well in various Festival handicaps:

Close Brothers Novice Chase - Diego Du Charmil & Kalondra
Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle - Nube Negra
Pertemps Hurdle - Calett Mad & Cresswell Legend
County Hurdle - Moon Racer & Divin Bere
Report duffy February 14, 2018 2:40 PM GMT
Whether Bon Papa is a Mcmanus horse or no is beside the point, he isn't being stopped to land a handicap, he's not a plot, he's a tricky ride that IMO is better than his rating, which is the point of the thread, my comment regarding a Mcmanus special wasn't intended as it would normally apply, perhaps I should have been clearer but thought I had pointed out how the horse is tricky, I just mean they may back it because they know they have a horse better than his mark, with no underhandedness involved.
Report Deptford February 15, 2018 6:28 PM GMT
Gold Present down to run Saturday, if it does, dont think it will run in The Ulimate
Report Quevega06 February 16, 2018 8:59 PM GMT
When is the handicaps revealed
Report maelduin February 16, 2018 9:23 PM GMT
I believe entries for all handicaps close on Feb 20th, weights published a week or so later.
Report Quevega06 February 16, 2018 11:01 PM GMT
Thanks alot
Report Deptford February 17, 2018 7:43 AM GMT
Gold Present nr today
Report liberator of the oppressed February 20, 2018 7:04 PM GMT
BigF Le Breuil into 16/1 with 365. On the move.
Report BigField February 20, 2018 7:09 PM GMT
Thanks Liberator, I never did get on at 25s, not sure now whether to take the 16 e/w or wait and hope for a bigger price on here on the day and lump on win only
Report BigField February 20, 2018 7:11 PM GMT
16/1 not a great price to play e/w for me, would rather just back it hard win only and take it on the chin if it loses, just the question of whether to wait til the day or not take that chance incase it gets smashed in a lot more
Report Deptford February 20, 2018 8:37 PM GMT
Gold very doubtful now, may run Saturday, then to Aintree
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