Cheltenham Festival

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15 Dec 17 17:01
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 12,563 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
last years 1-2 nicholls canyon and unowhatimeanharry  are at the head of the market but unwimh is a 9 yo and its probably fair to say we know how good he is hard to see him improving at his age ,nichols canyon will have every chance but one i have never taken to, a fair price but one who interests me is hendos thomas campbell ,who looks to have improved for  the step up to 3 miles ,has won 2 staying handicap hurdles this season and is an up and comer at  decent price around 18/1 on here and 16s with the books .
now officially rated 158 with improvement anticipated he could be a fair bit shorter come march . entered in the long walk hurdle at ascot over christmas he appeals at the prices .
selection stayers hurdle ....thomas campbell 1 point each way 16s or better ............around 5s -6s a place on here for buttons but worth taking the crumbs imo..good luck sand as ever input and opinions welcome .
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Report joevalue147 January 10, 2018 12:06 PM GMT
In actual fact Colin Tizzard is quoted by saying something along the lines of that he'd like to win a race with more prestige than the JLT with Finian's at the Festival.   Says it all really.
Report harry callaghan January 10, 2018 12:22 PM GMT
hopefully by these comments, you can talk tizzard into changing his mind joevalue to suit the bet you have struck

at the end of the day the horse can't jump and it is the right decision to go back hurdling, hell have a chance to win one at aintree
Report Desmond Orchard January 10, 2018 12:28 PM GMT
It's the usual nonsense from Imp, CCM.
After Yorkhill gets tired towards the end of his seasonal debut in a G1 3m chase, he's nominating about 8 other options for it - including the Champion Hurdle! Yet Tizzard should stick to the plan with FO Crazy
Anyway, there's far too much written about both FO and Yorkhill (mainly by that clown) on here, so I'll leave it at that.
I do agree, however, that the Stayers looks wide open - however, one with a touch of class is TNO and he is apparently targeting it. The only concern would be if there are any further injury news regarding the champion hurdle market leaders, they might decide it's worth one last shot.
Report unclepuncle January 10, 2018 2:50 PM GMT
Presuambly they will aim TNO at the Haydock Park Champion Hurdle Trial race he has won for the last 3 years - even though he always makes incredibly hard work of it.

Then I guess his Cheltenham target will depend on the ground - genuine soft and I bet they go for the CH, good'ish and it will be the Stayers.

With all these new potential runners the Stayers will end up far more competitve than the races the connections are switching them from.Crazy
Report impossible123 January 10, 2018 4:49 PM GMT
'joevalue', you are correct. Finian's Oscar was outstayed by Bacardy in Ireland despite looking like the winner. The former might win a weak RSA eg without Yanworth or Monalee but would struggle to win the JLT because of the anticipated quicker pace and his none-too-confident jumping.

Thistlecrack should never have been targeting the Gold Cup last season when he was head and shoulders above the rest, and got injured as a consequence. Otherwise, he'd have bagged another Stayers title, I firmly believe.

I'd like to see Yanworth here more than any present fencers given his owner's other once gold prospect ie Unowhatimeanharry has been proven rather mediocre this season. Yanworth would have a chance 2nd to none, I believe.
Report buddeliea January 10, 2018 5:03 PM GMT
Yes,agree re Yanworth, and at 10 nrnb, a decent price imo.
Report Desmond Orchard January 10, 2018 5:15 PM GMT
I understand what people are saying about Yanworth, but he's just won a dipper (beating the fav for the JLT in the process) and despite the chat, I can't see him reverting to hurdles.
They're given a year as novices for a reason and that's to improve and sharpen up their jumping without having to compete against slicker more battle-hardened rivals.
He's always looked a chaser and from his bumper days the yard thought they had a Gold Cup horse on their hands - I personally was surprised that they didn't send him over fences straight after his novice hurdling campaign, but then they probably thought the champion hurdle had an easier look to it, I suppose he did start favourite.
Nonetheless, I'd persevere, he will improve and could yet have his day in the sun.
Report DontBeSakhee January 10, 2018 8:59 PM GMT
In terms of pocket talk, then personally I'd have rather seen FO run over 3m over fences as I have an AP ticket for the TAX. However, removing personal greed from the equation then given FO's jumping his last few races this is probably the safest option.

However as has already been said, CT has not done his rep any good. Bar running the horse over 4m and the flat it's going to have run over every NH distance and over both obstacles. To my mind that cannot be a good thing for the horse in terms of winning at the big spring festivals. At least with Buveur D'Air, despite changing codes last year, he ran over the same distance. It's a bit amateurish from an outsiders view.

Perhaps more importantly, getting back to my pocket. What will happen with Supasundae? I've got 16 for the Stayers and think he has (had?) a reasonable chance! With both the Potts dying (RIP) it's unclear now how things will work. I suspect CT would have been kicked up his backside were they still alive.
Report DontBeSakhee January 10, 2018 9:08 PM GMT
For TAX read RSA. Bloody autocorrect.
Report maelduin January 10, 2018 9:37 PM GMT
Supasundae is the Potts #1 for the Stayers at the moment. Can't see FO doing anything to change that. Even if he wins the Cleeve i see no reason why they would switch Supasundae. He's a really tough genuine horse and still looks to be improving rapidly. Well done taking the 16/1.
Report impossible123 January 10, 2018 10:55 PM GMT
As long as Cooper is not on Supasundae (Power/Harrington) your 16/1 voucher looks pretty solid  more so if Yanworth is an absentee.
Report DontBeSakhee January 11, 2018 5:05 PM GMT
I got 16, as once we hit Xmas, usually, if I'm having a bet I'll cover it with an AP for the Fes. Means I get a fair amount of crap AP bets that go down, but I do end up with a few that are reasonable. I did Supasundae in the Christmas Hurdle and he ran a stonker against AJ so the price collapsed.

Not worried about the jockey, will be Robbie Power regardless if it runs.
Report impossible123 January 11, 2018 6:00 PM GMT
Have you seen the Aintree race over 3m between Yanworth and Supasundae? The latter was moving better yet found little after jumping the last almost in unison.
Report impossible123 January 12, 2018 2:38 PM GMT
Something could be amiss with Unowhatimeanharry - he's been matched at 34 here with more on offer at 24, 25 and 26. Yanworth induced perhaps.
Report penny1939 January 22, 2018 1:03 PM GMT
You could be spot on with The New One... E.Gold..
Report impossible123 January 22, 2018 6:39 PM GMT
The money is pointing Yanworth this way, and Unowhatimeanharry is drifting like a barge. Is it related?
Report easygold January 22, 2018 7:42 PM GMT
Maybe Penny.... I couldn`t believe they have waited this long to have a go.... Grumpy Nigel finally gives in...
Report BigField January 22, 2018 7:50 PM GMT
Beer Goggles still looks value at around 16/1, with the horse due to run this weekend probably worth backing now as if it wins it'll go a good deal shorter
Report wellchief January 22, 2018 10:16 PM GMT
My long shot in this, Bacardys, entered back over hurdles (3m) this week. Holding out hope he runs and wins before a tilt at the stayers.
Report BigField January 22, 2018 10:29 PM GMT
Good shout that with Bacardys, definitely has the profile of one that could be in with a chance and there's no standout candidates so surely a year where an improving horse will be in with a big shout, especially for connections that won the race last year.
Report impossible123 January 22, 2018 10:35 PM GMT
Beer Googles is a mega 7/1 for saturday's Cleeve Hurdle and 38 (here) for this race. I think his win over Unwhatimeanharry in the Long Walk Hurdle has yet to be fully appreciated as he is not from a top stable. Finian's Oscar is 3/1 fav but was beaten over 20f in Ireland by Bacardy; Wholestone (4/1 2nd fav) finished behind Beer Goggles in the Long walk Hurdle. I think L'Ami Serge who has another engagement at Doncaster is an unlikely runner.
Report BigField January 22, 2018 10:40 PM GMT
Yeah was just looking through the Cheltenham odds on here and was shocked Beer Goggles was so big, was actually about to check the RP to see if he'd been injured or something lol thought it'd be 20s at the most on here!
Report BigField January 22, 2018 10:41 PM GMT
And definitely agree about the odds being so big because he's not from a top stable, also the fact that not many people knew of the horse (or knew much about him) - when a horse wins out of nowhere the general mindset is to say 'well must have been a bit of a fluke' rather than accepting one didn't do their homework fully.
Report impossible123 January 22, 2018 10:51 PM GMT
I think Beer Goggles has a similar profile and improvement as Sam Spinner yet his price is 7x bigger than the latter. How peculier?
Report DontBeSakhee January 22, 2018 10:53 PM GMT
Have added TNO to my growing portfolio in the Stayers this year. Was going to back him on the day, but on Saturday realised he won't be priced up anything close to 16 or 20.

I missed the 20, but took 16 AP and just hope that NTD doesn't change his mind again!

Given I've backed for every Champion Hurdle and most races he runs in, I'd kick myself if he won and I wasn't on. Mugs betting, but sometimes you just have to follow them.
Report sageform January 23, 2018 7:32 AM GMT
I know a lot of people discount horses from small trainers but I take more note of owners than any other factor and the owners of Beer Goggles also have Sykes and Ossie the Oscar so must have the resources to buy good horses. They have had 40 winners in the last 5 years.
Report easygold January 23, 2018 12:55 PM GMT
The form of that Beer Goggles race is poor enough.... and I hope he runs, he could easily force Sam Spinner to race faster than ideal and set it up for someone else like TNO
Report buddeliea January 23, 2018 2:00 PM GMT
To me this race hinges on Yanworth running.....or not.
Report Desmond Orchard January 23, 2018 2:52 PM GMT
Not so sure about that Bud. I've been a huge fan of the horse since his bumper days, but he's been really well backed at the festival 3 times and not managed to get his head in front. I'm starting to accept that he might not be good enough at the top level. Whilst the stayers is a race for slow horses, it usually gets won with an impressive performance and I'm not sure Yanworth has that in him. Something will win it and win it well.
Despite thinking all that about Yanworth, I quite fancy TNO Crazy
Report easygold January 23, 2018 3:14 PM GMT
I will say TNO will be a 7/1 shot on the day.
Report sageform January 23, 2018 3:30 PM GMT
Everything now up in the air after the sad death of Richard Woolacott. Will Beer Goggles run on Saturday?
Report impossible123 January 23, 2018 4:20 PM GMT
Very sad news regarding the trainer of Beer Goggles (BG) Richard Woollacott - he was only 40 yrs old (RIP). It puts everything into perspective. I've backed BG for saturday, run or not, that's secondary now.

I cannot have The New One (tough horse but well past it), and anything else apart from Yanworth (1st class chance); Penhill (if sound) and the unknown 7lb allowance mare La Bague Au Roi. Beer Goggles is a big price (here) and could easily run into a place.
Report buddeliea January 23, 2018 4:44 PM GMT
I just think hes a 3m hurdler,and could well prove to be a darn good one.
If hes given the chance i think he will prove me right.
Report impossible123 January 24, 2018 7:53 PM GMT
Unowhatimeanharry is still drifting like a barge (50 here) with Yanworth coming into port at 12.5 - race plan made perhaps.
Report foxy January 24, 2018 8:20 PM GMT
hope yanworth does run in the stayers.
Report BigField January 25, 2018 12:10 AM GMT
Tomorrows race at Galway could be very informative, had the intentions of backing Bacardys for the Stayers Hurdle before the off tomorrow but with the weight he's carrying it'll be tough to win, and even if the horse does win, with that weight on his back and the likely harsh ground just 6 weeks out from the festival it could be a tall order.

However, I'll probably still back it for the stayers hurdle before the off tomorrow because if he does put up an impressive showing carrying all that weight then he'll probably be 3/1 fav by the evening and much shorter on the day
Report BigField January 25, 2018 12:13 AM GMT
Alpha Des Obeaux only failed to Thistlecrack at Cheltenham 2 years ago and its his first run back over hurdles for a long time having won this race 2 years back, 7/1 seems a decent price for tomorrow, wanted to back him for the stayers incase he runs a big race but cant see a price on here :(
Report BigField January 25, 2018 12:17 AM GMT
Diamond Cauchois another that might be worth backing for the Stayers at a big price but no odds on here :(
Report foxy January 25, 2018 9:33 AM GMT
good morning big field

i think you mean gowran Crazyagree a very interesting race i was looking at diamond cauchois  as a possible long shot for the stayers however he is not entered.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y January 25, 2018 10:11 AM GMT
Also took the 18s Bacardys (and the 5s today at Gowran).

I think one of the horses dropping back from chasing to hurdles will win the race so have ended up on:

Finians Oscar 50s
Yanworth nr-nb 10s
Bacardys 18s
Report foxy January 25, 2018 12:36 PM GMT
Barcardys non runner today
Report easygold January 27, 2018 8:18 PM GMT
The Impossible Dream....
Report impossible123 January 27, 2018 10:26 PM GMT
Unless Sam Spinner improves further and Unowhatimeanharry is rejuvenated after a long break this race looks increasingly open. Let's hope Yanworth does turn up otherwise this year's renewal could turn out to be a non-event for the future.
Report easygold January 27, 2018 11:03 PM GMT
A non-event sure Cole Harden won it and the event goes on..... there is always some improver every year.... Strange negative comment
Report easygold January 27, 2018 11:05 PM GMT
The value in this event is gradually going I`m on TNO  at nice odds..... it will be around 7/1 on the day
Report buddeliea January 28, 2018 7:20 AM GMT
Not sure TNO is value,we dont know well he will stay 3m.Fair chance if he does though.
Report buddeliea January 28, 2018 7:45 AM GMT
If you think he will be 7 on the day, then yes current odds could be seen as value. And it sounds like you have bigger than current odds,so fair play.

To me a horse that has spent most of his long career mainly over 2m,tells me that although he has form over 2 and a halfm,they wanted to use his stamina to get home well over 2m rather than see him struggle to get 3m.
They have had plenty of time to run him over 3m during his career and declined to do so,and this could well be a hint of desperation,kind of last chance saloon if you like, as he gets towards the end of his career.

Then again,Solwhit and Nichols Canyon stepped up and won this race.
Report easygold January 28, 2018 11:52 AM GMT
Yeah, the the risk Bud, we know that... but it`s the way the race is going to be run... hopefully Sam and Beer line-up that will make the gallop for him and his class should see him well positioned turning for home and we know he battles on a track he loves.Plenty of form over 2m5f-2m4f so yes if he stays he should be going close to winning it`s as simple as that. The public will see this clearly closer the event but the value could be gone by then.
Report ReaseHeath January 28, 2018 12:18 PM GMT
Lil Rockerfeller appears to be completely overlooked. He has one decent win under his belt this season and would n't have liked the ground at Wetherby - you have to overlook his Long Walk effort but I think his stable was in one of their cold spells then. And he's still only 7.

Even if you don't fancy him, I'd love someone to explain to me why all the NRNB firms have him at longer odds than Finian's Oscar even after yesterday - just shows the impact hype horse versus unfashionable grinder has on the market.
Report sageform January 28, 2018 2:14 PM GMT
I would be surprised if Finians runs after yesterday. Looked a non stayer at 3 miles and not even good enough to beat those at any distance.
Report Deptford January 28, 2018 2:30 PM GMT
I have fancied Supersun for a while but its a conundrum until we know who runs, I hope Yanworth runs, think it would win it
Report Quevega06 January 28, 2018 4:50 PM GMT
SuperSun for me also. Think he'll improve alot for the ground.
Report impossible123 January 28, 2018 6:31 PM GMT
The trainer of Yanworth is very adamant it is either the RSA or the Stayers, but he'd need to know soon so that the beast could be prepared for it; the betting is suggesting more likely the Stayers is 14 (has been 12), the RSA was last matched at 38. Great chance if the final destination is here.
Report lewisham ranger February 3, 2018 5:54 PM GMT
supersundae now resembles banker material to me. good enough to beat faugheen, albeit a horse who is probably past his best. and his advantage over sam spinner is that he's also proven at cheltenham.

I really think he could absolutely dot up.
Report buddeliea February 3, 2018 6:01 PM GMT
Faugheen is certainly past his best,but still a good run to win over 2m for a  stayer,and has to have a big chance.
Bl00dy awful race for a Champion Hurdle though i thought.
Report easygold February 3, 2018 7:41 PM GMT
I think the 3m on the New Course will find Supa out.
Report impossible123 February 3, 2018 8:30 PM GMT
I was very surprised Supasundae was able to go with Faugheen from the off and then beat him in a 2m race, but clearly that was not the Faugheen we all knew. Surely, after Leopardstown today King and McManus must realise they have a star that had beaten Supasundae in the Liverpool Stayers last season and would have an excellent chance of winning this race than the RSA if given the opportunity.
Report buddeliea February 3, 2018 8:45 PM GMT
Lets hope so Imp.
Report Deptford February 3, 2018 9:23 PM GMT
They would be stark raving mad not to run Yanworth
Report GAZO February 4, 2018 11:55 AM GMT
Would be surprised if yanworth doesn't go for the stayers as the trainer said he entered him on his form at Liverpool and the horse he beat is now the favourite for the stayers
Report wellchief February 6, 2018 8:27 PM GMT
I have the stamina concerns for Supasundae too.  I'm not too convinced that Apples Jade is a 3 miler and he couldn't get passed her, and he also couldn't beat Yanworth at Aintree - does look to be improved though.  I personally think he's a 2.5 miler but we'll see - if he stays 3m then he probably wins.
Report BigField February 6, 2018 9:18 PM GMT
looking forward to this race the more I think about it, have backed beer googles before he lost LTO but really have no idea at all who's going to win! Won't have any more bets on the race and just watch with intrigue
Report wellchief February 6, 2018 9:33 PM GMT
Definitely mate, an intriguing race. Hasn't got the star names running through it, but it's definitely competitive.
Report BigField February 6, 2018 9:37 PM GMT
exactly and sometimes it's a race like this that makes a star, or one that throws out a random result......we may not know til Cheltenham 2019 :D
Report The Dragon February 7, 2018 9:25 PM GMT
penhill seems to be the quiet one here . won in style at 3m last year and available at 13.5 on bf . my money is down
Report impossible123 February 13, 2018 12:10 AM GMT
A bit of bite for Yanworth into 10 here from 17 yesterday. Decision soon or made perhaps.
Report HaylingBilly February 13, 2018 6:38 AM GMT
Alan King stated it was either Stayers Hurdle or RSA.
Report buddeliea February 20, 2018 12:11 PM GMT
Connections have confirmed Yanworth will run in the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival next month.

Nice one.
Report Cash Is King February 20, 2018 12:17 PM GMT
impossible123 - good call. Well done.
Report impossible123 February 20, 2018 12:38 PM GMT
Thanks. Have some juicy 10/1 and 7/1 all nrnb singles, doubles and trebles with Footpad, Yorkhill (Ryanair, nrnb) and Native River or Sizing John. All I need now is for either Yorkhill to run in the Ryanair or Champion Hurdle (without BD).

Yanworth ought to be competing for favouritism given he started fav for the Champion Hurdle and 2nd in the Neptune, and owned by JP renowned for taking on the bookies.
Report Cash Is King February 20, 2018 3:07 PM GMT
A word of caution before everyone steams into Yanworth in the Stayers: horses that have previously run in the Champion hurdle have a shocking record in the Stayers.
Report duffy February 20, 2018 3:26 PM GMT
But horses that have a touch of 2 mile class which Yanworth has ISH don't do bad, Solwhit and Nichol's Canyon recently.
Report duffy February 20, 2018 3:29 PM GMT
and both ran in champion hurdle prior to Stayers Hurdle ain't a bad record recently after all really!!
Report duffy February 20, 2018 3:44 PM GMT
and of course, Annie did it the other way aroundSilly
Report impossible123 February 20, 2018 3:48 PM GMT
The present bunch, apart from the young improving pretender Sam Spinner, is much of a muchness eg Supasundae the fav who was 2nd to Apple's Jade and beat the aging, issues ridden and declining Faugheen. I think this is the race with the best chance of a win for Yanworth at this Festival after a couple of false dawns in the past.

If Harry Fry is proven right a rejuvenated Unowhatimeanharry (Uno) could be the one to beat as he said said Uno was not right in his last run. The other could be Sam Spinner an improving youngster who won well last time, but I do not rate L'Ami Serge who always flatters to deceive in his races.
Report wellchief February 20, 2018 6:19 PM GMT
Not sure Yanworth deserves to be fav Imp having been novice chasing (not particularly impressively) all year and not even ran in any of the big trials over hurdles. Sure he beat Supasundae last year, but a year can be a long time in racing and Supasundae has been nothing but impressive this year going into the race in the form of his life.

Re the 2m point, it's a very good one but personally don't think Yanworth has anywhere near as much class as Solwhit or Nichols Canyon, who were top draw 2 milers; I'm afraid Yanworth wasn't.
Report buddeliea February 20, 2018 6:53 PM GMT
He should'nt be fav i agree Chief,and he werent top drawer at 2milesSad,but he may be now hes running where he should be.
Big player in this stayers hurdle.
Report impossible123 February 20, 2018 7:20 PM GMT
I'd not swap Yanworth with any other runner for this race. He could emulate Buveur D'Air as he's the class and stamina to usurp the present fav, and probably Sam Spinner (my biggest worry). I'm glad connections have taken a leaf out of Hendo and Co and postpone his aspiration into a Gold Cup horse (eventually).

To me Yanworth is definitely my 'silver bullet' for this race. Now, I just hope he gets there in one piece and reaps just reward and atones for the disappointments suffered by supporters in past Festivals.
Report GAZO February 20, 2018 7:30 PM GMT
He has only run one poor race in two seasons and has been crying out for three miles,the favourite won't stay and the rest of the field is pretty average,will be favourite come the day and the biggest worry is Barry holding him up until over the last
Report wellchief February 20, 2018 8:12 PM GMT
Just can't take to this horse sorry. I'd definitely despute the 'only one poor race' comment myself. Can see the argument that he needs a trip but can just see there being one or two too good for him.  It'll come down to Yanworth hitting a flat spot (he always does in his races) and then what can find after that against really good up and coming ones like Supasundae and Sam Spinner.
Report HaylingBilly February 20, 2018 8:14 PM GMT
I agree Yanworth is in the right race but I think life has moved on since he last raced over 3m hurdles and there are better stayer hurdlers than him. I have been all-in on Supasundae since October and he has just got better and better since. Delighted with last race winning over 2miles. I genuinely think he is the real deal and have no doubt he will stay over 3m. And for once its not pocket talking .......yet !!!!!
Report sageform February 20, 2018 8:23 PM GMT
unowhatimeanharry the forgotten horse. Announced a def. runner today by Alan King. Last years running looks an awful lot better than the current lot and he wasn't beaten far.
Report wellchief February 20, 2018 8:31 PM GMT
Paddy Power and Betfair have Yanworth shorter than Supasundae; I'm amazed by that tbh
Report impossible123 February 20, 2018 8:36 PM GMT
Uno could do a Treve, and JP gets his 1st and 2nd. Here's hoping.
Report buddeliea February 20, 2018 8:56 PM GMT
Yanworth has beaten Supasundae over 3m,and Supasundae has never won over 3m. So it should not be that much of a surprise Chief.
Not saying either will win or not,both have a fair chance imo.
Out of the two i would be fairly confident that Yanworth would get home better,but of course its possible that Supasundae is now a better horse than Yanworth.
Im just glad hes now in the race he imo should always have been in.
Fav should be Sam Spinner,and i think he will be.
Report wellchief February 20, 2018 9:24 PM GMT
I am honestly surprised Budd.  Yanworth has been plodding along in novice chases this year, not performing particularly well over middle distances.  I know those are probably over too short a trip, but I expected him to perform much better than he did.  I'd be much more inclined to support him if they pulled stumps on the chasing a while ago and actually put him over a hurdles race as a prep.

I am not reading too much into last year's Aintree run, although I'm not ignoring it as it is Yanworth's best run to date imo.  There was only a length in it, and Supasundae has really kicked on since then - Yanworth hasn't imo.  Yanworth's flat spots would be a concern to me too - the best of them have had them (Big Bucks springs to mind in this race), and he's vulnerable to one who can ge him off the bridle and out of his comfort zone early.

I've not got a bet in this now (laid off my Bacardys bet for a small profit because concerned he hasn't ran for ages - been entered but declared a non runner), so viewing this race with an open mind.
Report GAZO February 20, 2018 9:42 PM GMT
Considering he has run poor over fences his actual form puts him very close and arguably in front of the favourite for the jlt
Report wellchief February 20, 2018 9:54 PM GMT
More due to the JLT looking like a poor renewal, with a weak favourite rather than good performances by Yanworth though. If Yanworth is a true 3 miler (he must be if he's in this) he'd get nowhere near the principles in the RSA imo, which looks a strong renewal.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 20, 2018 9:57 PM GMT
He'd struggle to get near the RSA principles as he doesn't jump fences well enough, surely that's obvious. It's clear from his runs over fences the engine is still there and fine as he gave away so much ground at the fences in his chases.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 20, 2018 9:59 PM GMT
When was Bacardys declared a non runner? I know he was pulled out at Gowran in January over nasal discharge but I didn't hear anything since and he was entered up last weekend.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 20, 2018 10:03 PM GMT
Sorry well chief, misread about Bacardys.

Although the market on here is not promising for him turning up to be honest
Report wellchief February 20, 2018 10:07 PM GMT
Not a non runner in the Stayers, just concerned he's been entered a couple of times recently and hasn't ended up running, not the type of prep I'd like.

Could be right about the fences. It's obvious its me vs the world on this, so I'll leave it for now and just see how he runs in the Stayers and will admit I was wrong if he wins.

I just think he's being priced up on an Aintree race 12 months ago; very risky strategy when taking what could be 3/1 or so.
Report duffy February 20, 2018 10:23 PM GMT
I was a fan of Yanworth's after the festival bumper where I thought he was unlucky (McCoy got caught out IMO), anyway as time went on I went off him and particularly at 2 miles he simply never had the change of gear and got caught out.

However, everything has it's price as it were and the more I think about it the more I like the idea of 3 miles for him, the times that he has been caught out particularly over hurdles have been against quicker horses over shorter trips. In this race he won't encounter that type of opposition and the ability he has to travel through his races will help him greatly, he's completely unexposed at the trip and if you look back to the Liverpool win he wasn't doing a tap in front.

The race looks to lack depth quality wise and I could definitely see him going off fav...I'm quite pleased with myself that I fancy him because I've proved to myself that I'm capable of fancying something that isn't "one of my horses"GrinSilly
Report buddeliea February 21, 2018 6:58 AM GMT
Everything about Yanworth,his form,watching him etc, just screams staying hurdler to me.
Whether he is good enough is another matter,but i am pretty sure this is his best chance of success.
Report buddeliea February 21, 2018 7:51 AM GMT
He was available at 10 nrnb when trainer said they were thinking about reverting back to hurdles.
Agree re 3/1 or so though.
Report firstimevisor February 21, 2018 11:04 AM GMT
Yanworth is a top class hurdler over any trip. His champion Hurdle run last year was just too bad to be true, he ran no race at all and finished well behind too many horses he had already beaten easily . It wasn't the trip it was just an off day and its just wrong to pigeonhole him as a 3 miler.

Apart from that one run he is actually otherwise unbeaten over 2 miles, hurdles and fences. This includes a Grade 1 where he comfortably beat the reliable yardsticks The New One and My Tent Or Yours, and had they gone the Champion Hurdle route with him this year I would have expected him to hit the frame, just as I would expect him to win ,or go very close ,in the Stayers Hurdle.
Report woodmanchester February 21, 2018 12:06 PM GMT
Otherwise unbeaten over 2 miles maybe but obvious that's not his trip. Prefer Sundae myself. Although Faugheen wasn't at his best in defeat, Sundae looks the improver. Would be hopeful trip, ground etc all falls into place on the day
Report firstimevisor February 21, 2018 1:26 PM GMT
Well his record over 2 miles is 6 wins from 7. He has beaten supposed 2m specialists like The New One, MTOY, Sceau Royal, Ch'tibello and Charbel over this trip so, no matter what way i look at it, I cannot see how its obvious 2 miles is not his trip. The fact is, his trip is any trip between 2 miles and 3 miles. His owner also owns Buveur D'air so it makes sense that they would run him in the Stayers Hurdle
Report Desmond Orchard February 21, 2018 6:14 PM GMT
I’ve said elsewhere that I thought that they should keep him over fences - but they haven’t and so probably think that this is the more winnable option. They may be right as the RSA looks a pretty hot race, but this one is no walkover either.
I’ve always said that the Stayers is a race for slow horses and it might just be that Yanworth fits the bill there, but it’s rarely won by anything less than a very good performance and I’m not sure he has one of them in him at the Festival. I just think he will come up short for the 4th season running, despite being well fancied in each of those races.
Report impossible123 February 21, 2018 11:44 PM GMT
Has Supasundae improved? He was outstayed by Apple's Jade over 24f who is more effective over 20f, in my opinion; he was also beaten and outstayed by Yanworth in the Ryanair Hurdle at Aintree and adversary here (again). 

I think the improver Sam Spinner would be a shorter price than either Yanworth and Supasundae but for his stable.
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