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Can't Catch Me
06 Dec 17 10:37
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Date Joined: 02 Apr 03
| Topic/replies: 26,755 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog
Always one of my favourite races this and always keen to see what WPM has for it.

Can barely believe Hollowgraphic was available at 33/1 and is still 25/1 (Paddy have always been noticeably short at 14/1) He’s Willie’s only entry in a Bumper at Punch on Sunday, in a race he’s won several times with some really good horses, and could be a short priced fav for the Festival if he wins.

Has only run once and battled on really well to just be denied in the Goffs Bumper at the Punch Festival last season. Some nice types were behind him that day, including Early Doors and the form looks pretty solid to my eyes. Patrick has given him a few positive mentions and they have said he was a big baby last year but has really matured this season. I think it’s telling they’ve kept him back for Bumpers this season.

Think 25/1 looks a complete rick considering Willie’s record in the race and also when you consider the amount of horses Gigg have and take out if the race.
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Report Catch Me ifyoucan December 17, 2017 4:21 PM GMT
RHINESTONE is no cowboy Devil
Report Can't Catch Me December 18, 2017 12:07 PM GMT
Fat jockey Confused
Report unclepuncle December 27, 2017 6:27 PM GMT
Hugely impressed by Noel Meades Brace Yourself at Down Royal yesterday.
Knowing Meade he will take it softyl, softly and miss Cheltenahm but he looks a future star to me.
Report Can't Catch Me January 2, 2018 10:46 AM GMT
Nice boost for Hollowgraphic's form yesterday. No idea how strong that form will be, but Dunvegan did it pretty easily.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 3, 2018 12:35 AM GMT
DUNVEGAN did it pretty easily...nice looking grey Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 3, 2018 12:41 AM GMT
The winning grey kept up the gallop from over a furlong out and at the line the front-runner had six lengths and two lengths in hand over Clinton Hill (WPM/PW Mullins) and Bugsy Siegel (Meade/Nina).
Trainer Pat Fahy said afterwards: "He's improved at home from the last day, and just the way he was walking around I knew he was in great form. He might have one more run this season, and go hurdling next season. "He was ready to go point-to-pointing, schooled and all, but didn't get there last season."
Report the bloob January 21, 2018 10:33 PM GMT
I've had a brief look at the race and not many have form that has been franked yet, apart from Hollowgraphic. I doubt it'll be that much shorter on the day but 7/1 nrnb is too good to turn down
Report Quevega06 January 21, 2018 11:01 PM GMT
I've taken a chance on Bullionaire,think it was far 2 keen lto
Report Quevega06 January 21, 2018 11:02 PM GMT
Hollowgraphic form is getting cranked everywhere though.
Report irishone January 21, 2018 11:25 PM GMT
greened on holowhraphic was 33\1 on here before last run, not confident at all, probably go for ntd s now, not cos i was impressed by its runs , just know ntd will have it ready and it lives up the road , shirley  got to place anyways
Report DontBeSakhee January 22, 2018 10:35 PM GMT
A race that has been generally unkind to me down the years. Moonracer the only CB winner for me.

Have thrown a few pennies at Thebannerkingrebel who won well at Warwick, but being from an unfashionable stable is available at 40/1.

The others I like, but haven't backed (yet) would be Didtheyleaveyououtto and Good Boy Bobby. It's suicidal backing GB horses in this, but just can't find an Irish one I like, bar a couple of the Gigg horses, who almost certainly won't run!
Report unclepuncle February 1, 2018 11:33 AM GMT
Mouth watering bumper at Leopardstown on Saturday.

The good ones don't usually take each other on before Cheltenham, which in a way is what makes it one of the best races of the Festival (imo).
Clearly an impressive winner on Saturday will become a firm favourite for Cheltenham.

While I put up Brace Yourself further up the thread his win hasn't worked out that well. Will be fascinating to see how the market goes.
Report Desmond Orchard February 1, 2018 12:06 PM GMT
I love this race too.
I was also very taken by TBKR at Warwick, he could hardly have done it more impressively. I immediately stuck a few pennies up at 75 on here and got matched a week later. I've also stuck him in my retirement Yankee at 40/1.
Having watched his debut, all I could think was that I'd hate to have missed another Cue Card! No doubt he will get balloted out Laugh
Report DontBeSakhee February 1, 2018 10:31 PM GMT
Lol.

Cue Card in the CB was a farce for me. Our racing crew split that day. I went to Huntingdon with a couple, while the rest went to the pub. One of the pub goers really fancied CC, but only told one of the Huntingdon goers. He forgot to tell us and so none of us backed it.

Meanwhile in the pub they'd been drinking  £1.50 pints of Guinness it was St Patrick's day) and had got so drunk the person who fancied forgot to put his bet on.

Meanwhile I was given a red hot tip in the Huntingdon bumper and so backed heavily on that, not backing a horse I'd picked out that morning called Theredballoon. That promptly hosed up at 100/1.

It was 10 minutes of utter farce that still burns now!
Report unclepuncle February 2, 2018 1:39 PM GMT
Very surprised by the early betting on the Leopardstown bumper. Looked a very competitive race to me but they have a hot favourite in Rapid Escape @ 5/4 with Blackbow @ 3/1.
Was expecting them to be about 11/4 joint favs myself with a few others between 5/1-10/1. I might even lay the fav if he is around Evens on the exchnage.

Expected Brace Yourself to be about 5/1'ish so will defintiley be having a bet at more than double that.
Report unclepuncle February 2, 2018 1:43 PM GMT
And Dunvegan doesn't have much to find with the favourite (who had the benefit of experience when they met in November). He also looks a fair e/w price at 12/1 though his front running style may make him a sitting duck.
Report unclepuncle February 3, 2018 11:01 AM GMT
Market is now exactly as I predicted.
Whoever came up with those opening shows for some of the bookies yesterday need firing.
Report RozelKid February 4, 2018 8:36 PM GMT
Does anyone have any opinions on some of these Fergal O'Brien entries?

Mercy Mercy Me
Herecomestheboom
Strong Glance
Time To Move On
Report DontBeSakhee February 4, 2018 10:15 PM GMT
Des - TBKR entered up for a Bumper on Friday at Bangor.

Rozel - Personally I'd steer clear of Boom and SG. Doubt they'd turn the form round with Didtheyleaveyououtto. Also horses that weren't first or second last time out in the CB are a no no.

The other two do bear closer inspection.

'Mercy' won quite well and second in his bumper (Classic Ben) has gone out and won twice since. Owned by Malcom Denmark, owns some good horses.

'Time to Move On' won very well and by a good margin (10 lengths) and fifth has won since. Owned by the Rooneys so owners who want to do well and will pay for good horses.

I don't think I'll back any of them personally, but wouldn't put anyone off backing those last two.
Report RozelKid February 5, 2018 8:00 PM GMT
Thanks Sakhee for your opinions.

I really like Mercy Mercy Me out of all of them.

I like the way he picked up Classic Ben off a quick pace and then went away whilst at the end whilst also looking a bit green.

OBrien & Denmark have Mercy entered in that Listen Bumper at Newbury this Saturday  https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/36/newbury/2018-02-10/692537 - they actually have 3 entered .
Report Mystic Wind February 6, 2018 8:27 AM GMT
Well I like Time To Move On! Won nicely in a decent time at Exeter and entered there again this Saturday. Good-looking half-brother to the connections' Barney Dwan.

PUBLIC WEALTH WARNING : I have a poor record in the Bumper. Caveat emptor.

0.5pts Time To Move On @ 16/1 NRNB
Report jakeybeany89 February 6, 2018 10:55 AM GMT
when asked o'brien said biggest disappointment of the season so far was Herecomestheboom getting beaten at Ascot, the form of is bumper win is not working out to badly with Ainchea showing some smart form already over hurdles
Report irishone February 6, 2018 1:42 PM GMT

Feb 1, 2018 -- 10:31PM, DontBeSakhee wrote:


Lol.Cue Card in the CB was a farce for me. Our racing crew split that day. I went to Huntingdon with a couple, while the rest went to the pub. One of the pub goers really fancied CC, but only told one of the Huntingdon goers. He forgot to tell us and so none of us backed it.Meanwhile in the pub they'd been drinking  £1.50 pints of Guinness it was St Patrick's day) and had got so drunk the person who fancied forgot to put his bet on.Meanwhile I was given a red hot tip in the Huntingdon bumper and so backed heavily on that, not backing a horse I'd picked out that morning called Theredballoon. That promptly hosed up at 100/1.It was 10 minutes of utter farce that still burns now!


when cue card trotted up at 40's you could hear a pin drop

Report Quevega06 February 6, 2018 3:52 PM GMT
Anyone heard anything about Mags Mullins horse - Downtown Gateway. Really impressive at Fairyhouse and Pipe bought the second who won the other week.
Report Can't Catch Me February 6, 2018 4:51 PM GMT
He was bought for an astronomical fee and sent to Henderson Quevega.

This was on his Unibet Blog the weekend before last:

Any chance we will see DOWNTOWN GETAWAY and LUST FOR GLORY any time soon? Have they both pleased you?

Yes, they have both pleased me and will be working tomorrow (Saturday) morning when we’ll learn a lot more about them. Lust For Glory is quite well forward and I have the Mares’ Bumper at Aintree in the back of my mind for her as she’s quite smart. Dowtown Getaway is coming along nicely too and will also probably start off in bumpers. They’re very nice prospects.
Report Can't Catch Me February 6, 2018 4:52 PM GMT
Sounds like Cheltenham might come quite soon to me... as Id be surprised if NJH were to run an expensive purchase in it on only its second run max.
Report Deptford February 6, 2018 5:59 PM GMT
Ascot race which Didtheleaveyou looked a very good race beforehand, was very impressed with this one
Report Quevega06 February 6, 2018 8:24 PM GMT
Cheers Can't Catch Me,great to know. Yes I think you might be right but if it was to run it would be a serious contender
Report Quevega06 February 6, 2018 8:24 PM GMT
Deptford I would be willing to give Bullionaire another chance in a faster run race.
Report RozelKid February 7, 2018 3:10 AM GMT
I have a story about Cue Card when winning the Bumper at 40/1 - Colin Tizzard spilt the beans the night before ...does anyone remember that?
Report maam8mandingo February 7, 2018 1:03 PM GMT
Herecomestheboom to bounce back vs the Irish Brigade!
Report irishone February 7, 2018 2:04 PM GMT
deptford i got severe reservations about the trainer , but jees that horse is different gravy
Report Cash Is King February 7, 2018 2:53 PM GMT
It looks as if the British contingent will be led by Didtheyleaveuoutto and I agree with others that have posted that the Ascot bumper that he won is the best bumper run in Britain to date (although Newbury's upcoming listed bumper is always a decent contest and this year's race is shaping up nicely). That said, I wouldn't trust Nick Gifford to post a letter so that dampens my enthusiasm for his ability to train a Cheltenham Festival winner.

The only other serious contenders are Acey Milan, Crooks Peak, Good Boy Bobby and Time To Move On (with Bullionaire likely to be aimed for a repeat win of the Goffs UK Spring Sales Bumper at Newbury in late March).

It'll be interesting to see how Acey Milan gets on in the listed bumper this weekend in light of Anthony Honeyball's comments after his win at Cheltenham on 1st January: "Acey Milan surprised us with how much he had come on for his first bumper when he rattled home at Wincanton, and he's showed gears and he's showed stamina. He's a handy horse and we'll make the most of him in bumpers. I think we can go to the Newbury Listed bumper against older horses and if he were to win there we could put him away or have a month before Cheltenham".
Report Ramruma February 7, 2018 3:05 PM GMT
Just for fun (at this stage) I checked the RPRs (Racing Post Ratings) for bumper horses and the top four are the first four home on Saturday at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Blackbow 142
Rhinestone 140
Minella Encore 136
Brace Yourself 132

(There are a couple of others also on 132, including Hollowgraphic.)

This leaves Blackbow a stone clear of the first British-trained bumper horse (not yet committed to Cheltenham) who is Good Boy Bobby on 128. Didtheyleaveuoutto is on 124.
Report DontBeSakhee February 9, 2018 5:09 PM GMT
Thebannerkingrebel hoses up again. Far cry from the best form on offer in Ireland, but hopefully will run and put in a decent showing. Either way, it won't be 40/1 again for the CB.

Happy with that.
Report Ramruma February 10, 2018 8:38 AM GMT
Thebannerkingrebel has hosed up because he is running in Mickey Mouse class 5 races at gaff tracks where he has picked up less than £5,000 in prize money after two wins. Obviously we do not yet know what the official handicapper will make of yesterday's race but I'd be concerned Thebannerkingrebel would be balloted out (assuming he will be entered in the first place) unless he takes on some decent opposition in the next couple of weeks.
Report Desmond Orchard February 10, 2018 11:36 AM GMT
That’s a little unfair Ramruna. There aren’t the number of quality bumpers in the UK that they have in Ireland and ‘only’ winning low class bumpers didn’t stop Cheltenham or Cue Card from following up.
We are talking about a horse that people have north of 40s on here - not a 5/2 jolly. They’ve very right to be pleased with the way things are going, although the balloting out potential would be a concern.
Report Mystic Wind February 10, 2018 1:01 PM GMT
We should know a bit more about the British challenge after today's Listed race at Newbury. The expensive Brewin'Upastorm is interesting but I think the market may have over-reacted to the collateral form involving Portrush Ted and I would not at all be surprised to see Nestor Park running a big race at a big price today. He looks a galloping sort with a roundy action, so more rain shouldn't bother him; I've backed him e/w for today's race.

As far as Cheltenham is concerned, I'm hoping Time To Move On enhances his credentials with a good win tomorrow.
Report DontBeSakhee February 10, 2018 4:12 PM GMT
Ram - TBKR is a bit of fun. One of those 'find an AP horse at a massive price and see how it goes' kind of bets.

I very much doubt he'll win the CB, were he to run, as outlined above, in that his form is miles off the Irish.

Briar Hill had only won just shy of €5000, beating a measly 4 rivals at Thurles, of which only one ever went on to win a race, before winning the CB.

The great thing about the CB is you just never know, as there is very little form to go on.

Think it's a bit disrespectful to say Warwick is a gaff track mind! Watched the future winner of the Grand National win the Classic Chase at Warwick last year! The Kingmaker attracts good horses as well.
Report Ramruma February 10, 2018 4:28 PM GMT
So far the top British bumper horse is Good Boy Bobby -- 16/1 for the Festival. We'll know more in 15 minutes after the Newbury Listed bumper.
Report DontBeSakhee February 10, 2018 4:34 PM GMT
I backed him last night at 4/1 for today (gonna have a R4 applied) and just added Good Boy Bobby at 14 NRNB for the CB.
Report Ramruma February 10, 2018 4:51 PM GMT
GBB only third behind Acey Milan.
Report DontBeSakhee February 10, 2018 4:54 PM GMT
Yep, won't be winning the CB. Nothing for TBKR to worry about there! Laugh
Report RozelKid February 10, 2018 5:18 PM GMT
Interesting race at Newbury there - make you wonder how good the Christian Williams horse "Volcano" actually is.

On the 16th January Ollie Murphy said that Brewinupastorm was the best horse he has got in his yard ..wonder if he still thinks that after being hammered by almost 14 lengths.Confused
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 10, 2018 5:18 PM GMT
CARE TO PICK YOUR TOP THREE:-

Blackbow
Hollowgraphic
Didtheyleaveuoutto
Rhinestone
Colreevy
Acey Milan
Time To Move On
Carefully Selected
Downtown Getaway
Stay Humble
Good Boy Bobby
Brewinupastorm
Mercy Mercy Me
Clinton Hill
Thebannerkingrebel
Crooks Peak
Danny Kirwan
Dorrells Pierji
Empreinte Reconce
Herecomestheboom
Report RozelKid February 10, 2018 5:19 PM GMT
is that an official list of entries CMIYC?
Report RozelKid February 10, 2018 5:34 PM GMT
I have to stick with initial thoughts - Mercy Mercy Me at 33/1  looks to have a big shout in a fast run Champion Bumper.
Report DontBeSakhee February 10, 2018 5:35 PM GMT
CCM:

I'd go:
Carefully Selected (seems to be under the radar for some reason looking at its price)
Blackbow
Didtheyleaveuoutto.
Report Cash Is King February 11, 2018 10:15 PM GMT
Further to my post of 7th February, one can now strike a line through Good Boy Bobby (not good enough), Time To Move On (won well enough at Exeter earlier today but beat nothing and looks too green to win a Grade 1 Festival bumper) and probably also the impressive winner of yesterday's Listed bumper at Newbury, Acey Milan (given an unduly hard race by Brian Hughes and connections must be sorely tempted to wait for Aintree to give the horse more time to recover from his exertions and the poor ride he was given).
Report Cash Is King February 11, 2018 10:19 PM GMT
I'm not sure I'd want to attach too much weight to RPRs in the bumper (or any of the novice championships) given the rate of improvement some horses are capable of showing at this formative stage of their careers.
Report muzza88 February 13, 2018 10:40 AM GMT
Anyone got any update on hollowgraphic?
Last update was it was due to run in the leopardstown bumper..have heard rumours of injury and slight drift to 8/1 on here..
Report Cash Is King February 26, 2018 7:50 PM GMT
In Willie Mullins' Cheltenham stable tour he issued upbeat bulletins about both Blackbow and Hollowgraphic. Carefully Selected and Tornado Flyer likely to join them on the boat. Patrick's pick likely to be Blackbow.
Report Can't Catch Me February 26, 2018 7:55 PM GMT
Got everything crossed that's what he does CiK and leaves Ruby free for Hollowgraphic.
Report Can't Catch Me February 26, 2018 7:57 PM GMT
I believe Mullins was quoted today as saying that what Hollowgraphic did at Punchestown was 'extraordinary' Grin
Report Cash Is King February 26, 2018 9:58 PM GMT
This is what WPM said about Hollowgraphic earlier today:

"I’ve always thought Hollowgraphic was a fair sort. To me, what he did at Punchestown was a huge performance. We’ve been minding him since then with a view to Cheltenham, it was always the intention to go straight there."

This is what he said about Blackbow:

"He has galloped his way in amongst the pick of our bumper horses. He has been very good in his two starts, particularly his second run."
Report BigField February 26, 2018 10:20 PM GMT
Is the impressive Nichols winner Danny Kirwan not going here? Out to 46s on here (only for pence but I took 23s on here before he won on the weekend!)
Report BigField February 26, 2018 10:22 PM GMT
is antepost betting a thing of the past? sorry to derail but thinking about it I took 25s on We Have A Dream for the Triumph since then he's won 3 times and one of those was a Grade 1 but he's still available for around 9s on here......is there any point betting so far in advance when you're not even getting great odds compared to what's available near the off?
I will obviously continue to bet antepost as it's half the fun, but it's hard to think we're getting true/fair value in these odds months in advance of March.
Report Can't Catch Me February 27, 2018 10:48 AM GMT
DK being saved for Aintree I believe he said after his win BF.
Report RozelKid February 27, 2018 1:16 PM GMT
Today is actually one of the forfeit stages - betting suspended
Report RozelKid February 27, 2018 4:25 PM GMT

Feb 26, 2018 -- 10:20PM, BigField wrote:


Is the impressive Nichols winner Danny Kirwan not going here? Out to 46s on here (only for pence but I took 23s on here before he won on the weekend!)


Its going to Aintree instead.

http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12426/11269475/danny-kirwan-to-miss-cheltenham-for-aintree

Report BigField February 27, 2018 4:50 PM GMT
typical, thanks for the info
Report BigField February 27, 2018 4:51 PM GMT
was cheering him home on the weekend saying "got a live one for the festival!"

nope
Report Ramruma February 27, 2018 9:01 PM GMT
@BigField -- is antepost betting a thing of the past? sorry to derail but thinking about it I took 25s on We Have A Dream for the Triumph since then he's won 3 times and one of those was a Grade 1 but he's still available for around 9s on here......is there any point betting so far in advance when you're not even getting great odds compared to what's available near the off?
I will obviously continue to bet antepost as it's half the fun, but it's hard to think we're getting true/fair value in these odds months in advance of March.


A couple of years back I posted a comparison of the winners' day of race prices and antepost prices some weeks before (sorry, I can't remember the details) taken from the price boxes in the Weekender. The answer was no, there was no point, not in the general case.

Perhaps someone who has kept the past few Weekenders can repeat the exercise at the end of this year's Festival.
Report Jb23 February 28, 2018 11:38 AM GMT
http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Final-entries-for-The-Festival-revealed.h...
Report RozelKid February 28, 2018 12:30 PM GMT
ACEY MILAN (IRE) Anthony Honeyball
ARCH MY BOY Martin Smith
BLACKBOW (IRE) Willie Mullins IRE
BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP Mick Channon
CAREFULLY SELECTED (IRE)                                Willie Mullins IRE
COLREEVY (IRE)                                          Willie Mullins IRE
CROOKS PEAK DASHEL DRASHER    4 Philip Hobbs
DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO (IRE)    5    3 JP McManus    Nick Gifford
DOC PENFRO    6            Doc Redemption            Kevin Frost
DR HOOVES (IRE)    5            Gerry McGladery            Lucinda Russell
FELIX DESJY (FR)    5    Gigginstown House Stud    Gordon Elliott IRE
GALLAHERS CROSS (IRE)    6    Grech & Parkin            Nicky Henderson
GOOD BOY BOBBY (IRE)    5    Paul & Clare Rooney    Nigel Twiston-Davies
HERECOMESTHEBOOM (IRE)    6    Walid Marzouk            Fergal O'Brien
HOLLOWGRAPHIC (IRE)    5    Ballylinch Stud            Willie Mullins IRE
JP/TRACK PARKHOMES    4                        Colin Tizzard
KNOW THE SCORE (IRE)    5    The Angove Family    David Pipe
MERCY MERCY ME    6    Malcolm C Denmark            Fergal O'Brien
NESTOR PARK (FR)    5    Mrs S P Davis            Ben Pauling
RELEGATE (IRE)    5    Paul McKeon                    Willie Mullins IRE
RHINESTONE (IRE)    5    3 P McManus            Joseph O'Brien IRE
SEDDON (IRE)    5    McNeill Family                    Tom George
SQUADRON COMMANDER 5                                Willie Mullins IRE
STONEY MOUNTAIN (IRE)    5    Trevor Hemmings            Henry Daly
THE BIG BITE (IRE)    5    N T Griffith            Tom George
THE FLYING SOFA (FR)    5    Galloping    On    Gary Moore
THEBANNERKINGREBEL (IRE)                            Jamie Snowden
TIME TO MOVE ON (IRE)    5    Paul & Clare Rooney    Fergal O'Brien
TORNADO FLYER (IRE)    5    T F P                    Willie Mullins IRE
VOLCANO (FR)    4    Walters Plant Hire Ltd            Nigel Twiston-Davies
Report Desmond Orchard February 28, 2018 3:17 PM GMT
Max 24 runners, anyone know where there's a list of ORs for these? Concerns re-balloting out.
Report baNjackst February 28, 2018 5:32 PM GMT
Mullins looks to have his usual strong hand and the best of his will undoubtedly take all the beating. It normal that no one knows which is the best of his of course. I was in Galway when Gallahers Cross won his bumper, he subsequently was sold to Nickies and although was beaten in the listed race won by Donttheyleaveuoutto I thought NdB wasn't overly hard on him, I took 33's to small money and under a stronger ride and an with an uphill finish I can see him running a big race. If of course he runs (fingers crossed).
Report RozelKid February 28, 2018 8:43 PM GMT

Feb 6, 2018 -- 8:27AM, Mystic Wind wrote:


Well I like Time To Move On! Won nicely in a decent time at Exeter and entered there again this Saturday. Good-looking half-brother to the connections' Barney Dwan.PUBLIC WEALTH WARNING : I have a poor record in the Bumper. Caveat emptor.0.5pts Time To Move On @ 16/1 NRNB


Some clues today that  Fergal O'Brien's Time To Move on will not turn up in the Cheltenham Bumper - The trainer has hinted today that whilst he thinks the horse is good enough to go there he also thinks that Cheltenham will not suit him at this time as he gets worked up before his races as he is very raw - he also added that his time will be in a couple of years.

Report Cash Is King March 1, 2018 6:54 PM GMT
Anyone lucky enough to be holding a 25/1 Hollowgraphic betting voucher must be sitting pretty right now. Hard to believe that excl. Willie Mullins' entries, the Irish have only entered two in this race.

The Bumper, RSA, JLT, Stayers, Albert Bartlett and Gold Cup are shaping up to be great, wide open races.  The other Grade 1 championship races have more of a lopsided look to them.
Report Ramruma March 2, 2018 5:04 AM GMT
@Cash Is King -- The Bumper, RSA, JLT, Stayers, Albert Bartlett and Gold Cup are shaping up to be great, wide open races.  The other Grade 1 championship races have more of a lopsided look to them.

Yes and no. Wide open races perhaps but not necessarily great ones. At Cheltenham I want to see jaw-droppingly great performances from true champions, even if that does mean a "good thing". Are "wide open races" open because all the leading contenders are potential greats, or because none of them are? Let's be honest, even the Gold Cup is often contested by slow old boats.

But we shall see.
Report Desmond Orchard March 2, 2018 8:31 AM GMT
The truth is, you never know. The festival wouldn’t engage us the way that it does if it was as predictable as people on here seem to think that it is, it’s the surprise monster performances that herald either a new superstar or a returning champions final flourish.
You only need go back a couple of years to Sprinter bouncing back and winning the QMCC again, beating the odds on UDS in the process. You couldn’t back him with counterfeit at the price, given the previous couple of years and yet the place erupted.
Report irishone March 2, 2018 8:59 AM GMT
the cold snap at christmas put a few horses off, willies in particular

teh days to cheltenham and we have another cold snap in ireland ... just saying ....

jesses are the same
Report Can't Catch Me March 2, 2018 11:18 AM GMT
Not sure many would be doing serious work at this stage though irishone?
Report irishone March 2, 2018 10:44 PM GMT
no but thats the same before they ran at christmas. ccm
jesse has a few that like the sun
gordons were out today on the gallops AJ led the way
let two of mine out of their stables this morning
and they walked straight back in before i could pick up a rake
they can get awful contrary in a cold snap
and willie had no expanation for xmas dissappointments
Report Deptford March 2, 2018 11:25 PM GMT
They will all need 5 legs to beat Didtheyleaveuout
Report RozelKid March 4, 2018 3:42 AM GMT
The Bumper is not everyone’s cup of tea but I get real buzz out of it.

It’s a real punters race for speculating with the limited clues available on the overall ability/class of the horses.....based on either their previous runs or other mitigating factors that can only really be subjective.

This years renewal looks a real minefield with these 9 Irish Entries - Mullins

MERCY MERCY ME at 25/1 + EW BOG

I’ve actually spread a decent ew bet yesterday because im of the view that if he turns up , given his interrupted lead up to the race, then it would be a massive pointer as to the owner and trainer’s confidence and overall view on his ability.

I like MMM for several reasons - Its debut run was very impressive imo and I liked the way that he travelled in a fast run race whilst also looking a bit green. It’s not easy to do what he did at Sandown …..and as soon as he eyeballed Classic Ben he briefly idled …but when Paddy Brennan told him to go on he started to pull away – this is what impressed me especially when this was his debut.

When you delve deeper into the form of the 2nd and 3rd (Classic Ben & The Butcher Said) and the horses they have run against, it gives me a further boost as to his potential class and overall ability. The Butcher Said, trained by Warren Greatrex, is very well thought of because of his debut performance at Punchestown in April last year.

https://www.racingpost.com/results/195/punchestown/2017-04-25/674240 - The form of this race looks very good and is working out. The 4th from that race at Punchestown has won a Grade 1 Novice hurdle since.

MMM has had an interrupted run recently so I don’t really know how to evaluate whats going on at the moment  . At the 5 day stage they declared him to run at in that Listed Bumper that Newbury on the 10th Feb that Acey Milan won …but he didn’t turn up, they also entered him this weekend at Newbury but the weather put an end to that.

For those who are old enough to remember the owner of Mercy Mercy Me, Malcolm Denmark,  had a GREAT  horse called Monsignor who won the bumper at 50/1 in 1999 – Mercy Mercy Me is out of the same family. https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/504913/monsignor/form

Monsignor form - win on debut at Sandown and then a run at Newbury before the festival win - Maybe they think Mercy Mercy Me is good enough to try and follow in Monsignor's footsteps ....who knows. It is a long time between runs 12th November –March 14th – then again Silver Concorde won 2014 with no run since 28/12/13 – briar hill won the 2013 with no run since  03/01/13, and Moon Racer hadn’t run since the October the year before.

Im just taking the view that if he runs then I believe it shows confidence from the yard – if not then no skin off my nose as I’ll get my stake back
Report RozelKid March 4, 2018 3:46 AM GMT
Mullins will probably win it

good luck everyone
Report Deptford March 4, 2018 9:25 AM GMT
Mr Denmark, chessboard colours, happy days
Report RozelKid March 5, 2018 2:07 AM GMT

Mar 4, 2018 -- 9:25AM, Deptford wrote:


Mr Denmark, chessboard colours, happy days


Yes, thats the one.

He also owns Next Destination who is the current 2nd fav behind Samcro in the Ballymore on the same day.

Report Jb23 March 5, 2018 8:53 AM GMT
The Flying Sofa lads Excited
Report Deptford March 5, 2018 9:12 PM GMT
Nick rather worried about the going for Didtheyleave, better on good ground
Report equine flew March 6, 2018 7:07 PM GMT
Rozelkid, I came to do a write up but couldn't have done it better than you with MERCY MERCY ME.

The only additional point I would make is that lots of bumper runner get to Cheltenham and the pace is completely new to them and they are all at sea.   the time MMM clocked at Sandown was good and comparable with graded races earlier in the day.  Indeed almost exactly the same time as Marias Benefit on the same day, which is a useful yardstick.
Report RozelKid March 6, 2018 10:48 PM GMT
Marias Benefit was jumping hurdles so i wouldn't take too much notice of the times when comparing them.

The Bumper is one of those races where there are so many things to contemplate in the lead up - In my view if there are any clues with regards to any potential class then its worth its weight in gold. Its a highly speculative race to a certain extent and some of these factors to consider are not so obvious ....and can even come down to a Jockey or Trainer's comment in the lead up to the race.

I remember the 2010 Bumper where i was wrecking my head for weeks going through form , pedigrees, watching replays and looking at times etc .....after weeks of research i was none the wiser in believing i had any edge with speculating on any runner which represented any value -  I had a few horses circled including Cue Card but i couldn't really be confident so i was just going to have minimal interest.

But that changed on the night before the race when i went on to the attheraces website and Colin Tizzard dropped a bombshell " Cue Card is the best horse ive ever trained ".

I remember thinking that night.... well ive spent weeks trying to see if there is one horse that represented value , had done nothing wrong in the lead up to the race , and could be coming under the radar at inflated odds , and im left with not being overly confident on anything as you can expect with the Bumper - however here i am the night before the race and a trainer of one of those horses ive circled has just told everyone that his runner was the best he has ever trained.

So that night i put my trust in Mr Tizzards Judgement , I trusted him - i went for it . The Morning of the race a cousin of mine called me and was shouting about his bet of the day "CUE CARD" Bumper - It was just meant to be that day when i think back.

I think the lesson to be learned with this race is to live it in the lead up - pay close attention to everything and be dynamic because in the days before the race "value" might just jump out at you and smack you around the chops.

It would be foolish to say that im really confident with Mercy Mercy Me , but ive speculated because I think he could be a horse that is better than average and should be much shorter if he runs. I also have two others circled which are Tom George's The Big Bite & Seddon , just had minimal interests on those to so far
Report Cash Is King March 8, 2018 1:14 PM GMT
Hollowgraphic scratched from the race.
Report Can't Catch Me March 8, 2018 1:24 PM GMT
I feel sick.
Report unclepuncle March 8, 2018 1:26 PM GMT
He'd been pretty solid on here the last week so that is a surprise.

Bad luck CCM.
Report unclepuncle March 8, 2018 1:41 PM GMT
I have now gone for The Big Bite @ 32
Report DECALEC March 8, 2018 1:57 PM GMT
Why not do the sensible thing get something to  eat or drink during this bookie benefit
Report RozelKid March 8, 2018 1:58 PM GMT
Bad luck CC - Mullins brigade does it again
Report Can't Catch Me March 8, 2018 3:25 PM GMT
This race has killed me the last two years. Getabird was my biggest winner last year and Hollowgraphic this Sad

I've added Tornado Flyer. Form working out well... and he seems to be the big mover. Perhaps he worked wit Hollowgraphic and wet well?
Report resner not lesnar March 12, 2018 8:08 AM GMT
Didtheyleaveuoutto seems a goner judging by the market n here
Report RozelKid March 12, 2018 8:26 AM GMT

Mar 12, 2018 -- 9:08AM, resner not lesnar wrote:


Didtheyleaveuoutto seems a goner judging by the market n here


looks like it

Report resner not lesnar March 12, 2018 8:37 AM GMT
And now it’s gone back to normal, albeit a few points higher than it was. Been a few of these spikes over the past week
Report RozelKid March 12, 2018 9:16 AM GMT
I've had enough on Mercy , still a little bit of 40's on the exchange - he runs and will love the ground ...as Fergal has just live on ATR

Market suspends in 45 mins

HERECOMESTHEBOOM will not run he said if soft or heavy ground
Report Can't Catch Me March 12, 2018 9:33 AM GMT
Didtheyleaveuoutto will be drifting on account of the weather.
Report RozelKid March 12, 2018 12:26 PM GMT

Mar 12, 2018 -- 10:33AM, Can't Catch Me wrote:


Didtheyleaveuoutto will be drifting on account of the weather.


Didtheyleaveuoutto has drifted out to 12/1 with one of the books

Report RozelKid March 14, 2018 8:20 PM GMT
Mercy didn't have enough pace to handle the Mullins crew - anyone have a few shillings on the tricast?

I would take the 2nd "Carefully Selected" as the one with most scope , he lost his concentration on the run in after being on his own in front for the majority of the race - he then ran on again when seeing Relegate on his left and just failed to get back up.
Report unclepuncle March 14, 2018 8:41 PM GMT
Definitely time to stop even looking at the Bumper - total crapshoot.
Report GI MAC March 14, 2018 8:46 PM GMT
Mullins filled the first 3 places, also 5th and 7th place with his 5 runners. It's amazing how he consistently gets good young horses year after year, he will have another good bunch of novice hurdlers next season.
Report DECALEC March 15, 2018 8:00 AM GMT
Why on earth do people get envolved on this race,previous poster's had done their doe on nr's and went straight in again on another selection the record of big odds winner's last 10 years must be leading race of the meeting,I did say get a pint or something to eat or even better still if driving get yourself halfway up the motorway
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