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Can't Catch Me
14 Nov 17 13:10
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Date Joined: 02 Apr 03
| Topic/replies: 26,565 | Blogger: Can't Catch Me's blog
Nice to get this forum going again and feels like Cheltenham horses are appearing every week now Happy

Just had a few quid on Next Destination at 16/1 for this race.

Was tempted by the 10/1 any race, but being greedy and going for the extra few points. Supreme is a definite no-no, so looks like the decision will be between the Ballymore and the Albert Bartlett. Considering how late he stayed on in the Bumper, and the fact he is a 3 mile point winner, Im more than hopeful this will be the race. Will obviously depend on what else they have as usual.

Mullins said on Sunday: "He won well at Naas and looks a stayer. I'm not sure where he'll run next but he could go to Navan for a Grade 2 two-and-a-half-mile novice on December 17."

That Navan novice hurdle has been a happy hunting ground for Mullins: he has taken the spoils with Mikael D'Haguenet, Boston Bob, Pont Alexandre, Briar Hill and Bellshill in the last decade.


Showed a remarkable engine to power away at the weekend after kicking the last clean over. Nothing seems to happen too quickly with him. Big bonus that he has some experience of the Festival already.
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Report bluebirdfan November 15, 2017 4:38 PM GMT
White Moon looked very impressive again today, another AB contender
Report shockster November 17, 2017 5:54 PM GMT
On The Blind Side looked a real stayer this afternoon and course form doesn't harm him. Certainly not without a chance and I've had a small bet.
Report shockster December 11, 2017 4:10 PM GMT
OTBS certainly looked a better horse at Sandown than he did at Cheltenham? Difficult to say where he'll end up, but avoiding Samcro may have something to do with it? Still happy with 33s on him.

Fabulous Saga won by half the track yesterday and he may need those conditions to excel, but he didn't stop and was very impressive.  It makes Cracking Smarts performance in beating him look top drawer now if it didn't before.
Report BigField December 17, 2017 1:39 PM GMT
Just backed Blow By Blow 33/1 for this before he runs this afternoon
Report easygold December 17, 2017 2:14 PM GMT
Yeah maybe the better ground will suit him better, but he is a quirky fellow..... they may miss Cheltenham and wait for Punchestown, overall I have been disappointed with a Grade 1 Bumper winner.
Report BigField December 17, 2017 4:19 PM GMT
yeah was expecting a better performance than that despite winning, next destination looks dangerous
Report easygold December 17, 2017 4:32 PM GMT
Yeah, I sure all involved are waiting if Samcro makes it to the Festival, and all will have entries in all of the novice races. If Samcro lines up in the Ballymore many will let their animal run in the Albert Bartlett/Supreme
Report firstimevisor December 17, 2017 6:05 PM GMT
Next destination looks to me more like a Ballymore than a Bartlett type.I'd expect he'd go there and he's capable of putting it up to any of them.
Report easygold December 18, 2017 12:50 AM GMT
Yeah, maybe N.D will take on Samcro in the Ballymore if possible.. there is place money to be won... N.D just hasn`t got the same temperament as Samcro, everything is done easy by him, whereas N.D and On The Blind Side struggle in that area and the old course could well hinter their chance. The new course would suit them better imo so Albert is calling them.
Report impossible123 December 18, 2017 9:27 AM GMT
I think if Samcro runs in the Ballymore/Neptune Next Destination would probably run here; Blow By Blow is Gigginstown owned, similarly Samcro, thus this race would more likely to be his main target. I believe OtBS is Ballymore/Neptune bound, according to Hendo.
Report Arklearkle December 18, 2017 11:06 AM GMT
Samcro or no Samcro I would be pretty certain that ND will run in the Ballymore. Samcro should run in the AB.
Report Can't Catch Me December 18, 2017 11:11 AM GMT
Next Destination into 4/1 and shortest price of anyone for this race with Paddy and out to 8/1 for the Ballymore with them.

A noticeable move imo.
Report Can't Catch Me December 18, 2017 11:15 AM GMT
Much will depend on what else Willie has as usual, and he will split them all up to give them a good chance in each race. I dont think the picture will become clear until much nearer the Festival.

But Cracking Smart was fav for the AB before yesterday and I thought he ran a good race. ND beat him out of sight over 2m4f on heavy ground at Navan, which is comparable to 3m on spring ground in my view. He would have this race at his mercy and as a 3m point winner by Flemensfirth, who can switch off as well as he does, I think he would have this race at his mercy. They will have to be very brave to not go for it imo.

Samcro, If the Cap Fits, On The Blind Side, Getabird all look Ballymore bound... and that looks the hottest novice race of the week to me.

I also think Getabird and ND are Willie's two best novices and will be split up.
Report unclepuncle December 18, 2017 11:26 AM GMT
Just watched his win yesterday and the AB looks the more suitable race assuming normal ground conditions at Cheltenham.
It's just such a hard race to weigh up, even on the day - a mixture of favourites and real long shots have won it and it's the first time the young horses have had to run a really hard 3m with a big field and strong pace as oppossed to the usual small field slowly run graded races leading up the Festival.

Good shout @ 16/1 either way CCM.
Report Can't Catch Me December 18, 2017 11:37 AM GMT
Cheers uncle you're much more sensible on this part of the forum Laugh

I have an ew trixie ND at 16/1 for this, Mengli Khan at 25/1 for the Supreme and Hollowgraphic at 33/1 for the Bumper to win a life changing sum. Starting to get pretty excited about it!
Report Can't Catch Me December 18, 2017 12:11 PM GMT
whereas N.D and On The Blind Side struggle in that area

easy. I know you are Samcro's number one fan, but ND doesnt struggle in any dept.

Travels, hurdles well, picks up, stays. The horse has the perfect temperament.
Report firstimevisor December 18, 2017 2:37 PM GMT
That's a cracking bet CCM and I would love to see you land it and the very best of luck.

I really fear for the ND part of the bet as I cannot see him going the Bartlett route.That race has to be the toughest of all at the festival given that its for novices. The typical profile of AB winners is all against Next Destination. Mullins eventually cracked it this year after having quite a few inexperienced hot pots turned over in previous years. Penhill was a battle hardened horse who had run in 6 hurdles and before that was a decent,seasoned flat handicapper. Unowhatimeanharry had run about 20 times and had won some good handicaps that season.Past winners such as Berties Dream,At Fishers Cross and Martello Tower were all tough battle-hardened campaigners when they won.

WPM has a different perspective on the race now and I couldn't see him running ND here on the back of maybe 3 hurdle runs.He's very much a creature of habit when he finds a winning formula. He'll have other options for this race which fit the profile much better. Ben Button is the one I'm drawn to. He's run 12 times over hurdles and since joining WPM he's improved from a mark of 109 to 136. His current mark at this time of year puts him right in the picture and I would imagine there's plenty more improvement to come.
Report Can't Catch Me December 18, 2017 3:12 PM GMT
Cheers ftv.

I must admit I would have agreed with you 24 hours ago! And I accept all those points are more than valid. But PP have a very impressive history of getting it right with Mullins runners and their targets, and their change of heart with his odds today is really striking for me... and they have given me my confidence back!

Obviously much can change, but as I posted, I am convinced Getabird and ND are his two best novices, and they will be split up at all costs. If Reel Steel and Sayar dont prove up to the Supreme, then there is every chance Getabird will be dropped back in trip for that race, and ND will go for the Ballymore, but if they do prove up to making the Supreme, then I will be more than happy tbh.

And to be honest, more than all of that, I just think he's the perfect type for the race. He's just stuffed the horse that was antepost fav for the race, so why complicate matters and move him to the hottest novice race of the week instead?

Of the other Mullins runners, Brahma Bull would be the other one I like for the race. Inexperienced as well, but a 6yo, and looks perfect for the trip.

I like trends I must admit, and these are what I have in my notes from the excellent Gaulstats for the race:

Summary

Race Distance - about 3 miles. Going 12 years. Winner to be 6 or 7 years old. Has won hurdle race over at least 2m 4f. May not have already run over 3 miles. Al least 3 runs over hurdles. 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class. Hasn't come from the Flat. Irish trained have recently punched above their numbers. Course winner or Graded course form if given the chance. Irish Bred. Any price. Not beaten favourite last time unless placed in Graded shorter trip.

ND fares very well there... The only negative is that I have also made a note that WPM has a dreadful record in the race. But maybe he's determined to put that right?! I dont think he is the type of trainer to dodge the race because it hasn't gone well for him previously. Last year might have turned the corner for him!
Report easygold December 18, 2017 5:27 PM GMT
Hi. C.C.M, he is just not in the same league as Samcro.... if Samcro goes injury free then he will take some beating.... But I agree that`s only one horse in a race and things happen in races that we all know that can go wrong.

If he avoids Samcro he has a good chance in A.B but I would rather OTBS of those two.....

Best of Luck with your bet.... Take Care
Report Can't Catch Me December 18, 2017 6:49 PM GMT
OTBS will be going for the Ballymore though.
Report MuayThaiClyde December 30, 2017 2:29 PM GMT
Had a little bit on Ravenhill Road
Report buddeliea December 30, 2017 2:36 PM GMT
Taken 33 Kilbricken Storm.
See how he gets on today.
Report buddeliea December 30, 2017 3:39 PM GMT
Well not great,but at least Jockey says hes looking forward to riding him in the AB.
Should get a run at least.
Report Arklearkle January 3, 2018 3:27 PM GMT
Betting for Naas suggests Samcro giving Next Destination a swerve
Report impossible123 January 7, 2018 3:28 PM GMT
Next Destination won workmanlike at Naas earlier today. And despite his trainer Mullins nominating the Ballymore/Neptune as his likely Cheltenham target - he's also entered here - I think he'll more likely end up running here instead. Then again, previous winners of Mullins' eg McKinley and Bellshill had run in a handicap race and the Supreme at the Festival respectively.
Report Can't Catch Me January 7, 2018 4:35 PM GMT
I can see them trying Getabird over 3m then devising. But as we stand I'd fancy Ruby's rides are likely to be Sharjah in the Supreme, ND in the Ballymore and Getabird in the AB assuming he looks ok at the trip. If not they could switch the last two around.

I do think Cracking Smart looks perfect for this race. Backed him after ND beat him last time and he got pushed out to 20's but have topped up at 10's today.
Report buddeliea January 7, 2018 5:28 PM GMT
Not sure which race Next Destination will be in at the festival, but whichever race it is,his jumping should not let him down.
One of the best displays of jumping i have seen from a novice hurdler for some time.
He looks to me like a horse that will relish the ground we normally get at the festival.
Maybe they should go for the race with the most hurdles!!Laugh
Report Can't Catch Me January 7, 2018 5:51 PM GMT
Haha. Totally agree Budd. For a big strong staying type, I was amazed at how slick and economical he was at his hurdles. A huge asset for Cheltenham for sure.
Report buddeliea January 7, 2018 5:57 PM GMT
Yes it is a huge asset mate,
Hes a big player in his chosen race for sure.
Not got a bet on him,but will be keeping a close eye on things.
Report Flemenstar January 8, 2018 4:19 AM GMT
Might Next Destination go to the Supreme? Similar to Champagne Fever and I think they might try and dodge Samcro
Report buddeliea January 8, 2018 7:58 AM GMT
Maybe, but I don't think they need to dodge any horse.
Gut feeling is he will end up in the Neptune.
Report impossible123 January 8, 2018 10:35 AM GMT
I think the Supreme is unlikely for Next Destination given Sharjah whose owner is the principal patron at Closutton stable. Similarly, despite what his trainer Mr Mullins had alluded to the Neptune is also less likely, in my opinion, given the presence of Samcro who, I believe, would eat him for breakfast, if so. But, he'd have more of a winning chance in the Albert Bartlett, I think.
Report Can't Catch Me January 8, 2018 10:53 AM GMT
You're saying he won't run in the Supreme because RR owns Sharjah? Complete nonsense.

Can you please find me a single year where Willie hasnt had runners for multiple owners in the Supreme please... even when RR has had a market principal?

Its beyond argument they like to be mob handed in the big races.
Report Can't Catch Me January 8, 2018 11:44 AM GMT
Sky are 14/1 about ND and that's NRNB. Seems a no brainer to anyone who can get a bet on with them.

Very open looking Supreme this year and he'd probably be fav if they opted for this race... his hurdling is so slick and he isnt short of pace.
Report firstimevisor January 8, 2018 12:14 PM GMT
Agree CCM that's a cracking bet for anyone who can get on.
Report Can't Catch Me January 8, 2018 12:18 PM GMT
Next stop Deloitte for him perhaps ftv?

I think he's their number one novice now.
Report buddeliea January 8, 2018 12:24 PM GMT
14's......very interesting!!
Report shockster January 8, 2018 1:39 PM GMT
Next Destination is now 10/1 with Skybet.

Getting back to the Albert Bartlett, Cracking Smart is going to take a lot of beating and can see him powering up the hill.  8/1 is still a fair price when you look at the potential opposition.  Next D. OTBS and Samcro unlikely to turn up on what's been said. So it's 20/1 bar Cracking Smart. Seems a good EW bet still.

Of the others 50/1 looks too big for Jetz.  Harrington has said he stays for ever and don't think he wanted to lead yesterday.  Stayed on really well previous race at Navan behind ND and Cracking Smart.  Can't see any other race for him so I've had a tickle at 50/1. Probably finish behind CS but I doubt he will be far behind looking at the Navan race.
Report Can't Catch Me January 8, 2018 1:45 PM GMT
Agree with everything you've posted there Shockster... CS looks absolutely ideal for the race, and think Jetz has improved no end this season.
Report unclepuncle January 9, 2018 10:30 AM GMT
Not a race I like to back a short one in so I've backed Jetz @ 50/1 e/w on the Sportsbook.

Been behind Samcro and then Next Destination / Cracking Smart on his last few runs but the step up to 3m at Cheltenham will help. He is related to Jetson who twice ran really well in the Pertemps final so hopefully the track and ground will suit and Jessica Harrington is a dab hand at priming them for the big day.
Report unclepuncle January 9, 2018 10:31 AM GMT
Oopps - just seen Shockster posted much the same.Cry
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y January 13, 2018 2:40 PM GMT
was very impressed with Chef Des Obeaux earlier today at Kempton and he is still available at 25s for this (with vc mind) and that would have to bring in Santini on the Newbury run when he beat Chef Des Obeaux over 2m 4f and the further he went the better he went, is the same price as well with them
Report Arklearkle January 13, 2018 2:46 PM GMT
Elliotts good novices getting scarce.
Report duffy January 15, 2018 3:59 AM GMT
Mr. Whipped was impressive I thought on Saturday, travelled all over them right through the race and although he didn't win by far I thought he just idled in front (did the same at Newbury)and was value for a lot further, he looks like the further the better and how he travels would be a big asset in the AB.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! January 21, 2018 2:41 PM GMT
Dortmund Park impressive at Thurles

Still available at 20-1

Gigginstown hoss
Not sure if he is their no 1 hoss

Wink
Report deepingfox January 21, 2018 7:27 PM GMT
Couldn't agree more re DORTMUND PARK for the ABOVE. 20/1 NRNB for the race is massive.
Report Quevega06 January 21, 2018 8:38 PM GMT
Gigginstown paid quite a few pound for it. Not sure it will go to the AB after Elliott's comments. Personally I think he'll keep it for the Martin Pipe as he still has cracking Smart
Report bluebirdfan January 22, 2018 2:24 PM GMT
Does Dortmund Park need that heavy ground? Travelled beautifully on it yesterday
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y January 27, 2018 3:08 PM GMT
roll on this with Santini now, as at Newbury doing his best work at the finish
Report impossible123 January 27, 2018 5:13 PM GMT
Henderson on Santini: "He'll get an entry in the Albert Bartlett, and if you're not in you can't run, but unless we change our minds I think we are all leaning against it at the moment. I think he wants another year and come back as a chaser."
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y January 28, 2018 9:47 AM GMT
Wow absolutely shocked by Henderson's quote and it makes zero sense to me, I will probably be ate for this post and asked along the lines of "how many festival winners have I trained?" or told I am pocket talking as I have quite a few quid on him for the festival but here goes.

The race Santini won yesterday is the best Albert Bartlett trial won in the past by Wichita Lineman, At Fishers Cross and Henderson's own Bobs Worth (went on to then win an RSA and Gold Cup). The horse clearly wants a step up to 3 miles as he has been doing his best work at the end and hit the line hard in both his races at Newbury and Cheltenham. In my opinion he would be the one they all have to beat stepping up to the 3 miles and the form of his debut win over Chef Des Obeaux could hardly have been franked more by the second.

Granted I do agree he looks to have everything you want to make a top class chaser and the way he jumps hurdles suggests he will take to fences it puzzles me why you cannot take this years festival in along the way, it didn't harm Bobs Worth or loads of other horses for other stables down the years.

And now to the biggest mystery of all to me, if the plan was always to skip the spring festivals and put him away for the year they why in gods name did they run him yesterday on bottomless ground when they have already admitted they did not think he would like the ground, well that makes me scratch my head in bewilderment.

If he doesn't race again this year it will be a pity (for me especially) but he is going to be one really exciting novice chaser to look forward to new season.
Report the bloob January 28, 2018 12:03 PM GMT
come on, we all know not to believe a word that comes out of Henderson's mouth!
Report Quevega06 January 28, 2018 4:46 PM GMT
I think Henderson is right to leave Santini until Spring or next year. The AB is naturally a hard race and i can't remember the last horse to win it having just two runs. Chef des obeux would definitely be a contender after the Kempton run.
Report duffy January 28, 2018 6:34 PM GMT
I think Henderson's Mr. Whipped would be a big player in the AB...super impressive in that good Warwick festival trial I thought.
Report Desmond Orchard January 30, 2018 1:53 PM GMT
Yeah, when Hendo really likes one for the future he will prefer to miss the festival.
I remember that he didn't want to run Sprinter in the Supreme, knowing that he was one for the future and that he was just a shell of what he would become. He may well feel the same about Santini, who is a tall type with a fair bit of filling out to do. It's exciting to think that there's one that highly thought of at Seven Barrows.
As others have pointed out, Hendo isn't short of ammo in the novice hurdles anyway. I've backed Mr Whipped for both AB and Ballymore, with bigger prices the latter - so would prefer he went there, but will be happy with a run either way.
Report duffy January 30, 2018 2:32 PM GMT
Apparently Mr. Whipped is another chaser in the making also.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 1, 2018 6:19 PM GMT
hoping Nicholas has had a change of heart "Mr Whipped, who along with Santini would be my most interesting ones for the Albert Bartlett"

didn't mention Chef Des Obeaux in regards to the race though
Report DontBeSakhee February 3, 2018 10:31 AM GMT
Have followed others here and added Mr Whipped for the AB at 10 NRNB and also Carter McKay at 14 NRNB. Plus have covered Carter McKay NRNB for the Ballymore at 33.

If CM wins today he'll shorten massively for both and would have a live chance in either and boost Getabird's form at the same time. Same with Mr Whipped, if he wins well tomorrow, he could be joint fav.
Report unclepuncle February 3, 2018 12:57 PM GMT
Jetz not entered in the AB - another antepost bet bites the dust.
Report DontBeSakhee February 3, 2018 4:03 PM GMT
Cashed out the Carter McKay Ballymore bet and hoping to do the same with the AB one.

Shame Jetz isn't entered ran well today.
Report DontBeSakhee February 3, 2018 4:19 PM GMT
CM AB bet cashed out. Strange that B365 allow you to cash out bets to the same stake with no penalty.
Report shockster February 3, 2018 4:24 PM GMT
More unbelievable that JETZ never got an entry!!!!!!
Report Can't Catch Me February 12, 2018 6:23 PM GMT
Paddy have cut Next Destination to 3/1 fav and pushed out Cracking Smart.

Looks like this could well be the race!
Report Quevega06 February 12, 2018 8:55 PM GMT
Not surprised Mullins is avoiding Samcro tbh
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 17, 2018 4:41 PM GMT
Grin c'mon Nicky, with Santini and Chef Des Obeaux you've some hand, run both please!!
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