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ImSoLuckyLucky!
07 Oct 17 15:19
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Date Joined: 31 Dec 04
| Topic/replies: 16,957 | Blogger: ImSoLuckyLucky!'s blog
Any thoughts on this fascinating race
14-1  bar at the moment
If you ignore the unlikely Hobbs runner

Wink
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Report eric_morris October 20, 2017 12:04 AM BST
The. most impressive thing about PM so far is how ridiculously short the bookies have made him after a stroll in the park.

The Arkle is not a race to strictly match hurdles form to chase form. It just doesn't work as has been proved time and again over the years. This is what creates the value in this race as the ratings merchants get their slide rule out to compare apples with oranges.

I have a fairly good gut feeling for the race and one horse gives me a similar feel to past winners I have had a good size bet on ante post such as Well Chief, Azertyuiop and Well Chief. Another winner I backed 25/1 Captain Chris was an unusual winner as he stayed the 2 miles exceptionally well and was a bit of a conundrum at the time against horses with more speed who didn't quite stay the 2 miles ... a fine decision when that is the case.
Report eric_morris October 20, 2017 12:06 AM BST
...and Moscow Flyer.
Report unclepuncle October 20, 2017 3:13 PM BST
Epic stuff Eric.Laugh

Petit Mouchoir is also not my idea of the Arkle winner but unless you tell us all who this mystery horse you fancy is, and whether you have actually backed it yet,  your post is a total waste of space.
Report bluebirdfan October 21, 2017 9:14 AM BST
Great post Eric..........but you forgot to name the strong fancy
Report eric_morris October 21, 2017 10:45 AM BST
I need to know more on plans before placing a position on him.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! October 21, 2017 4:37 PM BST
normally  a hurdler with a rating of 150+ has a good chance
Noted Captain Chris mentioned-a 146 rated hoss

How about a lower rated one this year
Saw Shantou rock last week saunter in ,bit of a slow time though
Rated only 129
But unfurnished and probably better as a chaser
25-1 chance?

Wink
Report unclepuncle October 21, 2017 5:29 PM BST
You can still tell us who you are thinking of Eric-  trust me it will not affect the market one iota..
Report shockster October 22, 2017 11:34 AM BST
Capitaine could not be faulted yesterday making it 2 from 2 over fences and looked very impressive.  There has to be slight doubts about him going left handed as he has raced mainly right handed up until now, but there's little doubt that he's already showing a much better level of form over fences.  33/1 still available and worth a small bet.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 25, 2017 11:05 PM BST
OUT WITH IT ERIC Devil
Report Desmond Orchard October 26, 2017 12:44 PM BST
Eric has also forgotten to mention that the last three winners of the race were the top rated hurdlers. In fact top hurdlers have a good record in the race.
But he backed Captain Chris once and so thinks he has cracked the race.
His other aftertimes include a horse that had run second in the Triumph the previous season WC, another that was the top rated hurdler in the race Az, and a 3x G1 winning hurdler MF. Hardly a cast-iron argument about top hurdlers, I imagine the slide rule boys would've had most of them covered.
Not that I'd be backing PM, in novice chases at the festival I prefer to concentrate on those horses that only spent one season over hurdles. Nothing jumps out at present, but Cilaos Emery would appeal if going here.
Report deepingfox October 26, 2017 3:34 PM BST
Desmond, on that basis then Finians Oscar may be high on your list. timeforms top rated Novice Hurdler last year at 155, one year over hurdles, and all the pointers from the stable were that he is a born and bred chaser. Willoughby Court 151p and Barcadys 150+ the others going fencing, close enough to top of the ratings with Arkle potential.
Report unclepuncle October 27, 2017 3:14 AM BST
Well Movewiththetimes backers will know if they have a live one later today.
Report Desmond Orchard October 27, 2017 11:24 AM BST
Quite right deeping, those three would have to be at the forefront of anyone's thoughts, a decent run at the previous years festival being a plus too (Bacardy's can be forgiven, very unfortunate).
Half the battle is finding the horses that will line up though.
I'm not convinced any of the three mentioned will, as suspect all three will be better over further.
That said, if it doesn't look a particularly deep race come March, then I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them turn up in it, rather than take each other on in red-hot RSA or JLT's. And of course being a stout stayer isn't necessarily a disadvantage as MWDS and Tidal Bay proved.
I guess I'm basically echoing everyone's thoughts that it's a very open race.
Report bluebirdfan October 27, 2017 3:16 PM BST
Can’t see an Arkle winner from that race. Petit Mouchoir still the best novice chaser so far imho
Report The Dragon October 28, 2017 8:37 AM BST
north hill harvey. Skelton confirmed arkle is the target best priced 33/1 won yestrday beating  decent horses showed plenty of guts but maybea lack of speed. Intersting at 33/1 though. short as 16 with some bookmakers
Report shockster October 28, 2017 3:04 PM BST
Petit Mouchoir has suffered a slight setback. H de Bromhead hopes to have him back for the Irish Arkle at the end of January.
Report duffy October 29, 2017 1:00 AM BST
^
and so it beginsSad
Report simdog84 November 9, 2017 3:23 PM GMT
River Wylde looks the most solid at this stage for me, So many horses in the top dozen in the betting that might not run.

If he stays sound he'll line up on the day a single figure price, maybe even fav if he builds on his good start the last week.
Report unclepuncle November 10, 2017 10:07 AM GMT
I wasn't totally disheartened by Movewiththetimes debut run so haven't torn my virtual ticket up yet - though I wonder if he might be plotted up for the Grand Annual?
Report shockster November 10, 2017 10:34 AM GMT
Footpad, who twice finished close to Petit Mouchoir last year, once when running 4th in the Champion Hurdle & the other beaten a length in the Irish Champion, has 2 entries in Ireland this weekend. He's 33/1 for the Arkle, however it's entirely possible he could go up in trip, but 16/1 any race with PP seems very fair for the level of form shown.  Same owners as Sceau Royal too and they could be split come March.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! November 12, 2017 3:28 PM GMT
Footpad wins well
14-1

Wink
Report shockster November 12, 2017 6:16 PM GMT
After FOOTPADs win, trainer Mullins said “it was a good performance; he is a very natural jumper at home and he did the same here. He's as good as novice as I've seen schooling at home and I thought it was a good performance for a first time out novice.

“I'd imagine we'll look at the Drinmore; the way he was going there I'd be happy to stick at two miles but the Drinmore is two-and-a-half so we'll look at that. He has no problem going two-and-a-half as he was a two-and-a-half mile hurdler.

“He is so well balanced jumping and is a complete natural.”
Report Can't Catch Me November 13, 2017 11:06 AM GMT
Thought Footpad jumped as well as any novice Ive seen for a long while.

Doesn't scream Arkle type to me though, more of a JLT type.

Anyone with 16/1 any race should be very happy imo!
Report Can't Catch Me November 13, 2017 11:07 AM GMT
Well done shockster, superb shout mate
Report bluebirdfan November 16, 2017 11:49 AM GMT
Movewiththetimes goes in the longer race this weekend so we can tear up our Arkle slips
Report shockster November 17, 2017 5:56 PM GMT
I put CAPITAINE up on here earlier so looking forward to his run at Cheltenham on Sunday.
Report buddeliea December 8, 2017 7:05 PM GMT
Could be the race of the festival.
Be great to have a top 2m Chase with up to half a dozen strong fancies,something we don't get much anymore.
Report duffy December 9, 2017 2:04 PM GMT
Brilliant round of jumping from Sceau Royal there.
Report houseofpain December 9, 2017 4:41 PM GMT
How bad was the petite mouchoir injury, is there any news.
Report harry callaghan December 9, 2017 5:33 PM GMT
Anthony Bromley, racing manager to Munir and Souede, said: "We have history before of running two in a Cheltenham race. If they both keep going as they have been up to now we couldn't keep them apart because we're talking about the Arkle."




at last no nonsense, there is only one arkle chase and fair play to bromley for making these comments...they are 2 high class novices, at least he has put the usual nonsense we have to deal with to bed
Report impossible123 December 9, 2017 7:03 PM GMT
With the disappointing runs of Finians Oscar (why connections down trip despite needing every yard to win over 20f last time beggars belief), Brain Power and North Hill Harvey today those with antepost vouchers for Footpad and very possibly Petit Mouchoir (a little setback of an issue with a joint but the vet is happy with it), and if returning for the Irish Arkle in early February could be in the money come Cheltenham, I think.
Report buddeliea December 10, 2017 8:15 AM GMT
Think they did a bit too much in front and set it up a tad for SR.I expect come March on a different track and ground things could well be different.
I certainly would not rule out BP and NHH,FO has to step up though,hes patently not a 2 miler.
Report Desmond Orchard December 10, 2017 11:14 AM GMT
I agree Bud, I think the stable were surprised by SRs performance and part of that might be down to Sandown bringing the best out of the horse. He's never looked at his best at Cheltenham and it wouldn't surprise me at all if either BP or NHH (who towed him into the race and were hammer and tongs at each other up front) could reverse that form in an Arkle.
It's still a very open race, which is a refreshing change
Report cvbyrne. December 21, 2017 11:04 AM GMT
I can't see Footpad running in the Arkle. Regardless of the fact Sceau Royal won well there Mullins was already talking about the Drinmore post Footpads win and talking about 2 & 1/2 miles. I'd expect him to go up in trip for the JLT
Report impossible123 December 21, 2017 6:29 PM GMT
Footpad could be Mullins' new Douvan; he is 8/15 in the Racing Post Novice Chase over 2m 1f at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.
Report HaylingBilly December 21, 2017 8:34 PM GMT
Contrary to cvb I can only see Footpad running in the Arkle. Entered in the Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1) over 2m1f at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. Not sure what the significance of the Drinmore is/was ? A Triumph Hurdle 3rd in 2016 and a Champion Hurdle 4th in 2017 and jumps a fence like a stag - quick and accurate - screams Arkle to me. Am I losing the plot ?
Report Arklearkle December 21, 2017 10:42 PM GMT
Yes Hay almost certainly Arkle
Report buddeliea December 22, 2017 12:13 PM GMT
Probaby go right to the wire.
50/50 imo
Report impossible123 December 22, 2017 1:54 PM GMT
Footpad is still a young horse, and the Arkle, if successful will lead to a decent crack in the Champion Chase the following year. And post this could cement his standing over 2m similar to Douvan; plenty of time to up trip, if necessary.

On the other hand, winning the JLT is a lesser achievement than winning the Arkle, I firmly believe.
Report cvbyrne. December 23, 2017 9:46 PM GMT
I think Mullins will send Koshari to the Arkle. Footpad to JLT and Invitation Only for RSA. With Ruby on them

Al Boum Photo, Bacardys, Saturnas all will fit in there somewhere too.

Don't see why the owners would have Sceau Royal and Footpad take eachother on. People bring up Peace & Co and Top Notch but they were Juveniles and there is only 1 race for them. Different with these two.

Anyway worth baring in mind if you fancy Footpad that he may not run in the Arkle.
Report Can't Catch Me December 23, 2017 10:12 PM GMT
Anthony Bromley, racing manager to Munir and Souede, said: "We have history before of running two in a Cheltenham race. If they both keep going as they have been up to now we couldn't keep them apart because we're talking about the Arkle."
Report shockster December 24, 2017 9:01 AM GMT
If Footpad and SR were kept apart then Ruby wouldn't ride as Jacob would be on both as retained rider.
Report cvbyrne. December 24, 2017 9:56 AM GMT
I now remember why I stopped posting anywhere other than the tipping comp thread
Report eric_morris December 24, 2017 10:07 AM GMT
Yeah you’re way too smart for here bet you have 5 degrees.
Report eric_morris December 24, 2017 10:09 AM GMT
tipping thread comp rotflmfao (backwards)
Report buddeliea December 24, 2017 10:18 AM GMT
Not sure what the problem is CV?
Owners have said its the Arkle and said they could run both,and Jacob is their jockey so would ride if available.
Why you getting upset?
Report buddeliea December 24, 2017 10:22 AM GMT
Also CV,either P&C or Top Notch could have run in the supreme,so Triumph was not the only race for them.
Report cvbyrne. December 24, 2017 2:19 PM GMT
betfair forums has matter of fact statements for things that are inherently uncertain. Like where a horse will run, or who will win a race etc..

4 or 5 years ago I'd be doing it myself. Hurricane Fly, Kauto Star etc.. Where Mullins horses would certainly run at Cheltenham. Since then I've focussed more on improving my betting and put my time into analysis rather than typed words.

Throw in standard internet trolls like eric morris and the like who feed off replies in an unmoderated forum. I've no interest wasting my time like I might have years ago.
Report Can't Catch Me December 24, 2017 2:33 PM GMT
Cvb. How did you get annoyed between your 21.46 post last night and your 09.56 post this morning?

I posted a quote I thought might be useful if you were considering backing Footpad for the JLT and then shockster posted another reasonable point to add weight to the argument both might run in the Arkle?
Report cvbyrne. December 24, 2017 2:48 PM GMT
I'm not annoyed, it's not anyones replies to my post. People have one opinion someone else has another. The back and forth repeating of same is just something I'm not into anymore. That's all
Report Can't Catch Me December 24, 2017 3:21 PM GMT
But that doesn't explain why you made a perfectly reasonable post, which was followed by two more perfectly reasonable posts, only for you to then say you remembered why you stopped posting anymore?
Report impossible123 December 24, 2017 3:56 PM GMT
cvbyrne...sleep easy, 'eric morris' is one of several of mine on permanent ignore; the poster has little to contribute that is conducive for this forum.

Merry X'mas!
Report eric_morris December 24, 2017 9:29 PM GMT
Unfortunately cvbyrne and i have disagreed in the past re the training and campaigning methods of certain jumps horses which has now become commonplace in the top grade. It takes a while for people in racing to accept change and new ideas. His idea of trolling is being proved wrong. I stopped posting as you can only prove people wrong so often before they follow you around trying to cause trouble. Others like impossible123 are blocked by me for the same from uears ago. People are too touchy when they get things wrong on here.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! December 26, 2017 2:26 PM GMT
Footpad impressive win by

20 lengths

Wink
Report impossible123 December 26, 2017 2:29 PM GMT
Footpad won at Leopardstown earlier beating Death Duty and is as short as 7/4 for this.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! December 26, 2017 2:50 PM GMT
Betfred going 5-2

Thats the same price Sprinter was a the same point in his career

Laugh
Report eric_morris December 26, 2017 2:52 PM GMT
Any thoughts now?

cvbyrne. 21 Dec 17 11:04 Joined: 23 Sep 16 | Topic/replies: 372 | Blogger: cvbyrne.'s blog
I can't see Footpad running in the Arkle. Regardless of the fact Sceau Royal won well there Mullins was already talking about the Drinmore post Footpads win and talking about 2 & 1/2 miles. I'd expect him to go up in trip for the JLT
Report eric_morris December 26, 2017 3:33 PM GMT
Very very short for the Arkle at this stage at 2s, 6s for the JLT. May as well bet nearer the day a novice at that price. Best Mate was 4/6 antepost fav before foot and mouth for the Arkle will he shorten further?
Report wellchief December 27, 2017 10:35 AM GMT
Footpad without doubt the one to beat in the Arkle (I think there'd be an outcry if he went the JLT).

Still think he's plenty short enough based on what he's beaten so far (Brelade 0/5 in chases and Death Duty not a 2 miler)....but, you couldn't fail to be impressed with how he ran yesterday. Swap his silks to pink and yellow and that could of been Douvan in his novice chase year yesterday.
Report bluebirdfan December 27, 2017 11:21 AM GMT
Very very impressive but what price will he be on the day? He’s short enough now. It’s a shame Petit Mouchoir had the set back, he jumped as well as anything I’ve seen this season on his chasing debut
Still think it might end up a “Western Warhorse” type Arkle this season
Report impossible123 December 27, 2017 2:05 PM GMT
We could have seen the winner of the Arkle in Footpad - he was extremely impressive again; his principal adversary could be his owner's other charge ie Sceau Royal. Regards Petit Mouchior I read somewhere he is expected back in Feb for a race prior to the Festival.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y January 22, 2018 6:30 PM GMT
Petit Mouchoir is clearly the value in the Arkle market and the 8s with hills with their offer (won't run in any other race surely) looks a cracking bet, the differential in price with Footpad is absolutely baffling even allowing for how impressive Footpad has been in both chases to date.

Petit Mouchoir was rated 5lbs higher over hurdles, he finished in front of Footpad 3 times last season, twice when winning at Leopardstown and when running 3rd in the Champion Hurdle and importantly Petit Mouchoir was very impressive on his debut over fences and jumped well.

Of course in saying all that there is no guarantee that Petit Mouchoir will prove to be better than Footpad over fences but then on the flip side on what we have seen so far I don't think their is any evidence that Footpad has improved past Petit Mouchoir for the switch to fences and one is 6/4 and the other 8s.
Report impossible123 January 22, 2018 6:45 PM GMT
Petit Mouchoir is certainly value and has a superior hurdling form to Footpad too. I took 12/1 post injury news, now just hoping he makes the Festival,...with/out a prep run prior.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y January 22, 2018 6:59 PM GMT
He is entered to run in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown Feb 3rd
Report impossible123 January 22, 2018 7:11 PM GMT
Oh yes, Footpad is there too! What a comeback race, if so.
Report ReaseHeath January 22, 2018 7:12 PM GMT
First time I've looked at the market today, surprised how short Footpad is...

Anyway I came on the thread to put in a word for Saint Calvados who has impressed in two chases at Newbury now. Difficult to know what the form is worth and he might not be as effective on better ground but we'll hopefully learn more when he runs in the Kingmaker.

His trainer deserves a decent chaser after what happened with Arzal a couple of years back.
Report Mystic Wind January 23, 2018 8:17 AM GMT
Saint Calvados only raised 7lbs for last win (to 154). Seems pretty lenient to me. The obvious unknown is how he'll handle faster Spring ground (high knee action), but they usually aim for good-to-soft on Tuesday, so shouldn't be THAT quick. Arkle definitely the right target though, I see him as a 2-miler, not a JLT type. I was impressed with him at Newbury and have had a few quid at 25/1 NRNB for the Arkle.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2018 4:47 PM GMT
Fwiw I've backed pm at 3s for this weekend and intend on backing him for the arkle. Hope I don't get egg on my face after posting this and hope Mr hdb don't read this but the intention is to run with eyes firmly on chelters. He just needs to see if after the setback all the ability is still there and if it is he will beat footpad on all known hurdling form! I'm just wondering if wpm won't dodge the race, will be interesting and he has form of doing just that.
Report impossible123 January 30, 2018 6:47 PM GMT
No doubt Petit Mouchoir has the more superior hurdle form but Footpad just glides over fences in a fashion similar to a Japanese bullet train over the rails. But there is a big disparity between prices of the two.
Report maelduin January 30, 2018 8:40 PM GMT
That's a bold statement STS. Footpad has looked exceptional so far over fences. If you rate PM then the 6/1 NRNB (B365) for the Arkle looks great. Going to be a cracker at Leopardstown for sure.
Report charlieptl January 30, 2018 10:14 PM GMT
Il be taking on Footpad with Petit Mouchoir.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2018 10:47 PM GMT
Like I said been given good info that pm is in good form but obviously no one knows till he's on the racetrack and who is the only horse to beat footpad again? Prices are miles out of line and I'm not usually one who looks back on previous seasons or codes and def don't usually back horses coming back off a break but willing to give this one a chance.
Pm jumped well in Oct it's just really unfortunate he had his injury and he did that real easy beating brelade an easy 7L ok 140 rated but he is a 2 miler in his own grade footpad beat 3 milers easily so not really been in a race and was on bad ground both times.
Gl if you wanna play the odds on but not for me!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2018 10:48 PM GMT
Off a injury not break ffs phone
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 3, 2018 2:27 PM GMT
delighted with that from Petit Mouchoir, jumped the first 2 poor but would imagine they'll hopefully jump him off in front at Cheltenham (as over hurdles) now they've got their prep into him
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 3, 2018 2:29 PM GMT
Think they'll fill the same 2 places at Cheltenham anyway whichever way
Report duffy February 3, 2018 2:32 PM GMT
Yeah, lots of encouragement from PM, jumped 2 poorly but was given a very easy time by Russell and still finished close enough, today was a stepping stone.
Report impossible123 February 3, 2018 2:41 PM GMT
That was impressive from Footpad; he jumped slickly and never extended. I think the same result at the festival, and should be odds-on but surprised he is not after this demolition job. A good 1st run back from a training setback from Petit Mouchoir.
Report houseofpain February 3, 2018 2:41 PM GMT
Also thought the seconds run  was full of promise, russell just sat there between 2 and 3 out and the horse came home full of beans..
Report lewisham ranger February 3, 2018 2:52 PM GMT
footpad will be overbet at cheltenham. to be fair to the horse he's looked pretty bomb-proof so far, but 2 miles at arkle pace on good ground will be a lot different than beating up small fields on soft ground in ireland. Of course he deserves to be favourite as you have to question the strength against him, but to me it would be madness to take evens, let alone odds-on as others are claiming.
Report DontBeSakhee February 3, 2018 4:05 PM GMT
As an Arkle PM backer I'd like to have seen a little more, but Davy clearly was giving him a bit of a racecourse gallop style ride so not giving up on him just yet.
Report Mystic Wind February 10, 2018 3:00 PM GMT
Saint Calvados impressive today, it's a long time since I've seen a novice jump so fluently. Game on.
Report the bloob February 10, 2018 3:08 PM GMT
5 year olds don't get any weight allowance in the race these days, no 5 year old has won it since the allowance was taken away (I think? don't quote me on that)

I was impressed, and I am tempted, but think I'll swerve
Report buddeliea February 10, 2018 4:09 PM GMT
Was very good.
North Hill Harvey thrashed out of sight.....he werent at Sandown behind Sceau Royal.
The Irish have competition with this one.
Report houseofpain February 10, 2018 5:35 PM GMT
Looking a real tear up with the front three in the betting like to be handy, you can see sceau royal getting a lovely sit in behind, but is it good enough..
Report Mystic Wind February 10, 2018 7:29 PM GMT
8/1 Saint Calvados looks too big to me, will surely be rated 160+ after today's performance. Footpad looks a formidable foe, but SC should be 4/1 tops imo so I've gone in again (already on for smallish stakes @ 25/1). Shaping up to be a cracking race.
Report geoff m February 10, 2018 7:35 PM GMT
Agree Mystic that was a cracking performance .I thought jumping the last hes going to be a 4/5 to 1 shot for Arkle mullered good horses.
Report wellchief February 10, 2018 8:11 PM GMT
Agree completely with recent posts. Looks a real good one and just placed my second festival bet on him.
Report the bloob February 10, 2018 9:54 PM GMT
if he wins off level weights as a 5yo then he is a seriously good horse, you are talking me into this one, he was laughing at them today. I know the stat around 5yos is bad but there can't have been many this good have a go
Report ReaseHeath February 10, 2018 10:15 PM GMT
A total of 102 runners in the last 10 renewals, only 5 of 'em were 5yo.

His trainer seems concerned - he must have said 'he's only 5!' about 10 times in his RUK interview but I think it's his way of trying to keep the lid on things.

Hugely exciting horse...
Report wellchief February 10, 2018 10:17 PM GMT
Footpad is still very much the one to beat, but I think if Saint Calvados was with a bigger trainer he'd be a lot shorter. Reminds me a bit of Flemenstar in his novice chase season for some reason (the way he made it look effortless, jumped and travelled with ease, small fields, small trainer).

The 5 year old stat doesn't bother me to be honest. I'm not getting too carried away and he may well be one of those novices who don't quite live up to a run like that again, but willing to take the chance.

Value in Footpad is gone, Petit Mouchoir tends to flatter to decieve on the big day and I think SC is better than Sceau Royale, so 8/1 is very fair imo
Report the bloob February 10, 2018 10:46 PM GMT
thanks for providing that stat ReaseHeath, it puts things in perspective. A 5yo should have a much better chance over the minimum trip than in a race like the RSA

Footpad has been mightily impressive, but getting a better price on Saint Calvados just to place seems a fair bet, taking 8/1 each way is tempting. My only concern is the course and the likely quicker ground, should I be worried?
Report Quevega06 February 10, 2018 10:52 PM GMT
I'm still happy to take on Footpad with Petit Mouchair and I think the 15/8 w/o Footpad is also appealing. Saint to me the ground is a worry
Report the bloob February 10, 2018 11:08 PM GMT
one horse I can't have at all is Brain Power, unless something comes out of the woodwork it's a 4 horse race
Report ReaseHeath February 10, 2018 11:17 PM GMT
The majority of the big races won by Saint Des Saints progeny have been on softer ground or worse - however, the dam sire is Pistolet Bleu - best horse he produced was Sizing Europe who loved the spring ground.

Not sure that really helps much!
Report buddeliea February 11, 2018 6:38 AM GMT
It all helps Rease.
Report wellchief February 11, 2018 9:36 AM GMT
Re the ground for Saint Calvados, my approach is that unless there is a clear soft ground action, then I just assume they'll be able to go on better (not sure if that's the correct way, but it's just how I view it).

A lot of novices that come over from France do all their running/winning on really heavy ground; eg Long Run won all his races in soft, very soft or heavy, but first time on good ground over here and he smashed them in the Feltham.  Same with the likes of Douvan and Vautour who'd raced almost exclusively in France and Ireland in soft ground but then as soon as they met good ground at Cheltenham they went to another level.  Un de Sceaux was another 'who had to have soft ground' but has won twice at Cheltenham on good now.

Suppose my point is that just because he's done his winning on soft, that is just because those happened to be the conditions on those days, not like they were avoiding good ground deliberately so I am giving him the benefit of the doubt that he'll act on good.  He really is the joker in the pack imo - he could quite easily trail home in last, but at the same time he could easily smash them - makes for a really interesting race!

Agree with the bloob that I wouldn't want to back a 5 yo in the RSA without a weight allowance, Arkle doesn't bother me too much.  I know there were a lot of negatives about Bristol de Mai in the JLT because he was only fiver but ran a great race to finish second on ground he doesn't like and a trip too short, so his age didn't stop him.

Really looking forward to this now!
Report DontBeSakhee February 11, 2018 1:30 PM GMT
Followed in at 8/1 NRNB yesterday. Any SC backers will be pleased to hear that Whittingham in interview said:

"His work rider at home thinks he'll be better on better ground. We'll see."

Coleman said:

"Better ground will be no problem to him."

So if they're right, nothing to worry about... hopefully!
Report isleham February 11, 2018 3:41 PM GMT
does look like a soft ground action though
Report duffy February 11, 2018 11:53 PM GMT
Absolutely has a clear soft ground action, if ground conditions at the festival are soft or worse he has a big chance, on good ground, both Footpad and Petit Mouchoir will be far too quick for him IMO.
Report Quevega06 February 12, 2018 11:15 PM GMT
I think you are spot on Duffy. Hopefully the money keeps coming because Petit will become every more interesting
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