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17 Apr 17 19:19
Date Joined: 25 Feb 16
| Topic/replies: 13,841 | Blogger: rl91's blog
Another impressive bumper win today at Fairyhouse

Trying to figure out where he goes but hopefully he will be double digits for the any race market when they become available, I imagine he and blow by blow will be kept apart in either a Supreme/Neptune or Neptune/Albert Bartlett combination
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Report Graeme83 February 7, 2018 12:43 PM GMT
arklarkles post 2 posts ago is what Mullins wants to happen. Many seem to agree getabird and samcro have 2 winners medals reserved already. It would suit WPM for samcro to up in trip. He will fancy having a go at him with ND, having already bagged the supreme.
Report duffy February 7, 2018 3:00 PM GMT
Would have been nice for CM to have booster the form a bit the other day
Report buddeliea February 8, 2018 12:26 PM GMT
Gordon Elliott is still favouring the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival next month for Samcro despite his impressive victory over two miles last Sunday.

The two-mile-five-furlong Ballymore had been viewed as his most likely destination, but he also holds entries in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle over three miles as well as the Supreme over two.

He impressed in winning the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown last weekend, extending his unbeaten run under Rules to six in the process, but Elliott is still favouring the Ballymore above his other Festival options.

"He's good. He'll go straight to Cheltenham now anyway," said Elliott. "Everybody probably knows that the Ballymore is where I'd say he's going to go at the moment. We'll let the horse do the talking and Cheltenham is the plan now."
Report Callisto-moon February 8, 2018 12:41 PM GMT
Is it right the stat in the racing post that this race is usually finished in a quicker time than the supreme?
If so would that be a pos or neg for him?
think 2m where he can call the shots might be best.
Report Callisto-moon February 8, 2018 12:45 PM GMT
My mistake in reading what was said sorry folks.
Report Callisto-moon February 8, 2018 12:46 PM GMT
Stuart Riley, reporter

I would target the Supreme because Samcro looks perfectly designed for the demands of the race. It is in effect a stamina test for inexperienced, young horses and everything connections have said about Samcro suggests his future will be over further.

Altior is the only Supreme winner since the 2012 festival to finish off his race quicker than the Ballymore winner – despite the latter being run over five furlongs further. That is because they go slower through the early stages in the Ballymore and then kick for home harder – usually somewhere between the fourth- and second-last.

Given the way Samcro travels through his races and his ability to keep galloping relentlessly all the way to the line, he is absolutely made for the Supreme. He may still be up to winning a Ballymore but due to the nature of the two races it is leaving more to chance.
Report Forty February 8, 2018 2:09 PM GMT
That suggests the Ballymore is the best race for Samcro imo.

Can’t agree with Stuart Riley’s conclusion.

Report maelduin February 8, 2018 3:17 PM GMT
Samcro is not just a relentless galloper, he also has speed and quickens away from his rivals. Although i'd agree that he would be suited to the Supreme i think he would be better suited to the Ballymore for those reasons.

Some serious pocket talking going on with this horse given there were some decent prices NRNB for the Supreme, to be had, before his Deloitte win.
Report impossible123 February 8, 2018 4:26 PM GMT
Connections have stated his ultimate target is winning the Gold Cup, and the Ballymore/Neptune is a stepping stone towards it. I think the Supreme is unlikely, even less lightly than the Champion Hurdle given the prestige and admiration attached - he has the class and ability, just lacking the experience. And many here, yours truly included, would back him at 3/1 or less; he exudes class, and a future champion.
Report duffy February 8, 2018 5:08 PM GMT
Either the Supreme or Ballymore would not hinder his ultimate path toward staying chaser, this business about running in the Supreme wouldn't be ideal because it would get him used to running too quick, well...LaughLaughLaugh
Report impossible123 February 8, 2018 5:47 PM GMT
Assuming the shoe is on the other foot and you are the lucky owner of Samcro whose ultimate objective is winning the Gold Cup.

Apart from offloading him to the highest bidder which race would you run him in? For me, and without a moment's hesitation I'd go for the Ballymore/Neptune; if not, I'd go for the Champion Hurdle rather than the Supreme, why? If it was the Supreme then the following year I'd be very tempted to go for the Champion Hurdle after winning the Supreme - just as good a chance and a short price fav too - which is not the normal progression for the Gold Cup, I firmly believe.
Report BigField February 8, 2018 6:00 PM GMT

Feb 8, 2018 -- 5:08PM, duffy wrote:

Either the Supreme or Ballymore would not hinder his ultimate path toward staying chaser, this business about running in the Supreme wouldn't be ideal because it would get him used to running too quick, well...

Is it really that illogical? Horses can be animals of habit, his last run was around the 2m trip as is the supreme, why risk having the horse not settle in the future when it's furute target is over 3m2f?

Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 8, 2018 6:14 PM GMT
Samcro will run in the Ballymore (imo), I've no doubt about but the utter sh1te being posted on here about this crap the Ballymore - Gold Cup horse being the natural progression is utter bull. FFS go back to 2000 and I'd say there is a fair chance more Gold Cup winners have ran in the Supreme than the Ballymore if my memory is correct (Best Mate, Kicking King, War Of Attrition, Sizing John). As far as I can remember only Denman and Imperial Commander ran in the RSA/Neptune/Ballymore Hurdle and went on to win the Gold Cup, the same number that actually ran in the Albert Bartlett (Bobs Worth and Coneygree) and went on to win the Gold Cup.
Report duffy February 8, 2018 6:30 PM GMT
It's a wonder that the likes of Faugheen, Hardy Eustace and Istabraq won a CH after being taught to run too slow in their novice season and My Way De Solzen must have been a super horse to win a Stayers before an Arkle.!!Grin
Report HaylingBilly February 8, 2018 6:39 PM GMT
My view. Its totally irrelevant and complete b0ll0x for anyone to suggest running Samcro in either the Supreme or Ballymore makes the slightest difference to his Gold Cup potential 2-3 years down the line. What a load of tripe being spewed on here on this topic. Elliott is clear he wants to run him in Ballymore. O'Leary has suggested Ballymore. Supreme its is then !!!!
Report maelduin February 8, 2018 6:48 PM GMT
99% of the time horses aren't racing competitively so surely they would pick up bad habits on the gallops doing fast canters etc... There can be various reasons why a horse doesn't settle in a race and pace might be one. Sometimes a horse gets worked up or is fresh.

MTOY could never settle regardless of how fast they went. Total Recall couldn't settle last Sunday because he was clearly fresh and wanted to race early.

Anyhow that's how i see it. GL
Report BigField February 8, 2018 7:13 PM GMT
Stick to your opinions chaps and I'll stick to mine! Really doesn't bother me either way, the horse will run in the Ballymore and p*ss up, everything else is rather irrelevant in the grand scheme of things
Report impossible123 February 8, 2018 7:25 PM GMT
Does not bother me either. Got any race at 2/1 with Footpad at 5/1.
Report BigField February 8, 2018 7:37 PM GMT
cheeky, big time bet?
Report impossible123 February 8, 2018 8:44 PM GMT
Only for £20 each doubles/trebles: with Faugheen; with Faugheen and Footpad; with Might Bite (King George); with Might Bite and Footpad. Footpad was a pure punt solely because of the owners otherwise would abstained from Mullins/Ricci antepost post Vautour Ryanair debacle. Hoping all turn up, but looking to lay Faugheen on opening day, come what may.
Report BigField February 8, 2018 8:56 PM GMT
some nice looking doubles and trebles there mate, best of luck with them!
Report firstimevisor February 8, 2018 9:23 PM GMT
Footpad was a pure punt solely because of the owners otherwise would abstained from Mullins/Ricci antepost post Vautour Ryanair debacle.

But you backed Faugheen!
Report impossible123 February 8, 2018 9:47 PM GMT
But Faugheen at 13/8 and 15/8 and Might Bite at 5/2 and 11/4; Footpard was the asture one (as above) and £2 trebles with Clemmie (1000G) and either Saxon Warrior or Pentagon (both Derby).

Samcro and Footpad will make or break my Festival, and a consolation if either Sizing John or Might Bite wins the Gold Cup.
Report bluebirdfan February 19, 2018 3:20 PM GMT
Eddie O’Leary today “Samcro runs in the Ballymore and that’s final”
Report Forty February 19, 2018 8:07 PM GMT
Excellent news of plan.  To be fair they have always said the Ballymore since day one.

Report buddeliea February 19, 2018 8:25 PM GMT
All he has to do now is beat On the blind side.....dont think that will  be easy.
Report unclepuncle March 5, 2018 10:30 AM GMT
Been shortening rapidly for the Supreme on here this morning.
Report Fistfulofdollars March 5, 2018 12:08 PM GMT
Surely unclep this is only precautionary measures on fancy prices (bet365 14/1) which are now NRNB so punters who may have big ante post vouchers can risklessly hedge their ante posts for the Ballymore? This given the hype about heavy being in the description for day 1 I suspect has set punters diversifying their risk?
Report ACStafford March 5, 2018 12:23 PM GMT
Sounds about right Fistful.
Report Forty March 5, 2018 12:49 PM GMT
Gigginstown House Stud's Eddie O'Leary has spoken on the market move for Samcro in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
He said: "Switching Samcro from the Ballymore to the Supreme is something we’re not even thinking about. It doesn’t interest us that his price for the Supreme has shortened.
"Unless the ground becomes brutally heavy - and I hope for everyone’s sake that won’t be the case - it isn’t something we’ll even consider.”
Report equine flew March 6, 2018 2:46 PM GMT
Given "it isn’t something we’ll even consider.”...

It will be interesting to see if the horse is still in the 5 day declarations for the Supreme at 11.00am tomorrow.
Report Fistfulofdollars March 6, 2018 3:04 PM GMT
Based on Elliott's (or Gigginstown's) u-turn on the NH Chase and RSA targets nothing would surprise me from that camp.
Report unclepuncle March 6, 2018 8:34 PM GMT
Well Claisse has said that if they get the forecast rain it will be heavy in places by the end of the week. With most forecasts suggesting further showers on Monday/Tuesday their caveat about the ground may well cone into it.

I certainly wouldn’t want to be laying it for the Supreme and I’m tempted to lay it for the Ballymore at odds-on as very soft ground, a strong pace and a stiff track may make him vulnerable, like Death Duty in the AB last year.
Report impossible123 March 9, 2018 12:57 PM GMT
If Samcro goes for the Supreme anyone thinks Getabird will run in the Ballyore/Neptune instead? I just cannot see connections of the latter would want to take on Samcro at this stage.
Report Can't Catch Me March 9, 2018 1:53 PM GMT
Why would Willie run his two best novices against each other in the same race?
Report ACStafford March 9, 2018 3:40 PM GMT
They're not going to run scared of Samcro.
Report impossible123 March 9, 2018 3:52 PM GMT
I think they'd be otherwise why declare Getabird for both races? Not incase he falls at the 1st, surely? If so, I'd rather connections save him for either Aintree and/or Punchestown.
Report ACStafford March 9, 2018 3:59 PM GMT
They always do this with their novice hurdlers.
Report impossible123 March 9, 2018 4:04 PM GMT
Mullins/Ricci do it all the time. In the Ryanair Mullins is responsible for 7 of the 14 remaining most of them are Ricci owned; just taking the Michael.
Report charwell. March 9, 2018 9:37 PM GMT
I am very much thinking they will switch Samcro to the Supreme. They won't want to bottom him out over 2m4f on very soft ground. Kicking myself for not doing the 14/1 NRNB on him with £3.65 when it was available Angry
Report Steamship March 9, 2018 10:24 PM GMT
I'm beginning to think that Samcro goes for the Supreme
Report ACStafford March 9, 2018 10:29 PM GMT
I reckon there's have to be a fair bit more rain than forecast, otherwise he'd have drifted further in the Ballymore.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 9, 2018 10:31 PM GMT
Periods of rain ending after midnight; additional rain can lead to flooding problems
Report windsor knot March 9, 2018 10:42 PM GMT
there is a wider picture here in that now there are so many alternatives it really is difficult/ pointless to take such a strong opinion  on many races until the final decs . it has become bloated .
Report deepingfox March 9, 2018 10:48 PM GMT
I've got the 14/1 NRNB for SAMCRO in the Supreme, but I think the weather and going are now favouring him not being a runner in this race.
Report sewter lives again March 9, 2018 10:50 PM GMT
yes windsor add to that the effect of multiple ownership.

unfortunately the top horses have become concentrated by both owner and stable leading to multiple entries and less competition

oh and some top jockeys obviously want a top ride in every race
Report ping the last March 10, 2018 10:01 AM GMT
Big drift on Exchange for Samcro in Supreme
I noticed down to 5something on here earlier this morning
Now 16 offered
What have I missed?
Has there been a further statement of intention to run in the Ballymore in the last few minutes?
Report layingisthewayforward March 10, 2018 10:08 AM GMT
elliott has said ballymore regardless of the ground
Report marychain1 March 10, 2018 10:11 AM GMT
Chapman on Morning Line said he spoke to the man Elliot personally and he confirmed Ballymore whatever the ground
Report Forty March 10, 2018 11:47 AM GMT
Signing of the forum until after Cheltenham now so I wish everyone good luck.

I would also like to thank rl91 for highlighting Samcro win or lose.  I have had a few quid on as mentioned previously and the journey to say the least has been exhilarating.  My preferred race appears to be the one they are now going for (not discounting a change by the time the declarations are made tomorrow).

Enjoy and don't forget a weatherproof coat.

Report impossible123 March 14, 2018 1:47 PM GMT
Very, very, very good horse; nearly came down after clipping a heel of the horse infront. Interesting where he goes next year; only 4/1 JLT, 6/1 eah for the Champion Hurdle and RSA.

Spare a thought for Bryan Cooper though.
Report unclepuncle March 14, 2018 1:59 PM GMT
Good performance by the winner.

As a massive e/w backer of Next Destination can I just say what a ride by Ruby - could easily have given up but gave it everything to snatch 3rd on the line.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 14, 2018 2:01 PM GMT
Winner was brilliant, thought the tactics on Next Destination where poor tbh but looked like he was in the wrong race there
Report buddeliea March 14, 2018 5:06 PM GMT
Runner up good as well
Report DECALEC March 14, 2018 8:18 PM GMT
Winner was different don't kid urself forget the rest
Report buddeliea March 14, 2018 9:12 PM GMT
Samcro best horse in the race,but imo not by as much as some are saying.
I am just saying that the runner up ran very well,which he did.Missed the last as well.
Report duffy March 15, 2018 12:46 AM GMT
I'll go on record now and state that IMO Samcro won't stay the GC trip, I wouldn't be surprised if by this time next year he's running in an Arkle, or dare I say it, a CH.

I don't think he was idling after the last I thought his stamina was ebbing away.
Report resner not lesnar March 15, 2018 1:01 AM GMT
Inclined to agree with you duffy, but the stamina for the Gold Cup may come with age and more racing experience. I’d presume they will go RSA next year if they think he stays, that’s where Don Cossack went anyway.

Also agree with PF that Next Destination was in hindsight probably in the wrong race, not sure if tactics had much to do with it though, never looked to be travelling, so either struggling to keep up or possibly an off day, but stayed on well up the hill to snatch 3rd suggesting the former.
Report eric_morris March 15, 2018 5:47 AM GMT
I must have been watching a different race. The incredible roar from the crown here in the stands as he jumped the last is an atmosphere you cant create anywhere else.
Report buddeliea March 15, 2018 6:03 AM GMT
Gut feeling is JLT or Arkle next year at Cheltenham for Samcro.
Not convinced at all he will be a Gold Cup horse from what i have seen so far,but hes still got some improving and as resner says,he may gain more stamina.
Report unclepuncle March 15, 2018 3:30 PM GMT
He wasn't breathtaking but he went the long way roud all the way and arguably kicked too soon - presuambly they were so confident he would win they thought the only way he could get beat was if he were brought down or unsighted at a hurdle so they took that out of the equation.

I'd mark him up a few lengths and reckon a Gold Cup on normal going should be fine for him in a couple of years.
Hopefully he goes the RSA route next year.
Report impossible123 March 15, 2018 6:21 PM GMT
I do not think his stamina was ebbing away at the end. Also, I think he'll be aimed at the RSA but will need to prove he stays that trip prior otherwise the Champion Hurdle or the JLT, the former more likely given the prestige.
Report easygold March 17, 2018 2:39 PM GMT
Champion Hurdle next year imo.
Report unclepuncle March 17, 2018 3:01 PM GMT
8/1 for the RSA with Billies?Shocked
Report FOYLESWAR March 18, 2018 11:47 AM GMT
given its gigginstown  cant see it being champion hurdle ,straight over fences next season rsa seems logical !
Report buddeliea March 18, 2018 12:32 PM GMT
Dont think he will be stepped up until following season.
Arkle would be my guess,or JLT maybe depending on ground.
Report buddeliea March 18, 2018 12:35 PM GMT
Meant to add....if he is stepped up.
My gut feeling at this early stage is hes a non stayer at Gold Cup distance.
Think he just about stayed last week.
Report easygold March 18, 2018 3:13 PM GMT
All about opinions, imo I don`t think the horse is ready for a chasing career just yet.... could be wrong..... but if I owned him I would wait another year.
Report impossible123 March 18, 2018 3:48 PM GMT
I just cannot see him popping hurdles or fences over 2m, why? His 2m Deloitte ran was ground induced. I think he'd most likely be going over fences in the JLT as he ran in the Neptune and not the Albert Bartlett unlike No More Heroes. Whether he'd be a contender for the Gold Cup the year after will hinge on that performance eg easy and stylish win in the JLT the Gold Cup will be more likely, I believe.
Report Jack Bauer '24' March 18, 2018 7:51 PM GMT
He's too good to be running in the JLT. I don't believe he was running out of stamina at all and would make him hot favourite for the RSA. He would probably win the Arkle too as he has so much natural pace.
Report equine flew March 19, 2018 8:44 AM GMT
I cannot see the Champion Hurdle being an option, especially with these connections.   Not the most fashionable but I really think the JLT will be the perfect race for him
Report easygold March 19, 2018 9:16 PM GMT
Many people analyse racing different as this thread showed a long time ago. When is there value for example. Mischief you show them Sammie.
Report eric_morris March 19, 2018 11:59 PM GMT
He doesnt look an Arkle horse to me but could still be. He may be a horse who doesnt have a championship trip in him (2m, 3m2f) on quicker ground which would be a shame. Running in the 2m5f division  doesnt add you to the list of greats.
Report cufcno1 March 20, 2018 2:48 PM GMT
Samcro got the trip well enough in that horrible ground,won't have any problem staying 3 mile next year IMO!
Report Govan Spoonful March 20, 2018 4:39 PM GMT
In October I backed Samcro each-way at 6/1 on Paddy's any-race market, which sometime after my bet was adjusted to become win only. Upon going to the shop to collect my winnings, the confused assistant had to phone head office for advice and was instructed to pay out on the complete stake as a win bet. Don't get that kind of service very often, do you? It was St Patrick's Day, though!
Report impossible123 April 17, 2018 6:23 PM BST
No Buveur D'Air in the Irish Champion Hurdle and Elliot struggling to stay ahead of Mullins in the Trainers' Championship Samcro will probably line-up, according to his owner and airline boss. Does that mean connections are "confident" of beating the likes of Melon, Faugheen and Company? I'd think so. Now, what price is he for the race?
Report equine flew April 17, 2018 9:13 PM BST
Ryanair said, he wants to keep Samcro to novice company but MAY consider running in champion if Gordon needs the cash.
Report impossible123 April 18, 2018 12:13 AM BST
O'Leary: "I'd lean in favour of the novice - I think that is the race for him - but I wouldn't rule out having a pop at the Champion if Buveur D'Air (BD) does not show up and Gordon needs the help."

From the above, will BD show up? Very unlikely - it is not Hendo - and My Tent Or Yours is. If BD does not show up and Elliot needs help it would be more likely than not as it would also tell connections Samcro's most likely discipline for next season. For instance, if Samcro underperforms and/or beaten fairly (by Melon) then a campaign over hurdles would be extremely unlikely for next season, I'd have thought.

But I think Elliot would be ok for the Trainers' Championship against Mullins, and Samcro will run in the novice race.
Report unclepuncle April 18, 2018 5:34 PM BST
The Irish Champion Hurdle is run at Leopardstown and was won by Supasundae. ****Angry
Report impossible123 April 27, 2018 8:36 PM BST
Which race will connections go with him next season? Champion Hurdle despite the slip-up today or one of the novice chase eg JlT or RSA? He was right up there with Melon when the mishap happened.
Report DECALEC May 4, 2018 2:56 AM BST
Thick skinned he must be
Report joevalue147 May 4, 2018 12:39 PM BST
No way Willie Mullins would have ran Samcro in that race whether they were chasing the trainers championship or not.
Report penny1939 May 15, 2018 4:38 PM BST
Fair play Easygold. you new all along he would win and which race he would run in, I did listen to you and took the 5/1 when told. Different gravy you are to these guessers.
Report buddeliea May 19, 2018 5:54 AM BST
We are all guessers............some we guess right, others we don't.
Report penny1939 May 22, 2018 10:21 PM BST
Hi Bud, i don`t agree with that comment at all, if you look at his comments on this Cheltenham forum for the last three years. Un De Sceaux, spot on, Tully East spot on and now Samcro spot on. I agree once but I don`t think this fellow is guessing. He knows more than most of us and is willing to share his opinion. I`m nowhere near in the same league as him but I love when he comes on.
Report firstimevisor May 24, 2018 11:13 AM BST
Lol I've seen it all now!!

What is the link between Easygold and penny1939?

Are they (A) twins
         (B) lovers
         (C) same person, pre/post transgender op
Report Quevega06 September 2, 2018 10:25 PM BST
Champion Hurdle winner 2019!!!
Report irishone September 7, 2018 11:02 PM BST
Fecking chesnut ....pains in the r s
Report foxy September 11, 2018 10:42 AM BST
Report Quevega06 September 12, 2018 9:50 PM BST
The money is coming.....
Report Quevega06 September 12, 2018 9:50 PM BST
O Yes
Report Catch Me ifyoucan September 15, 2018 8:49 PM BST
Samcro is likely to make his eagerly awaited return to action at Down Royal in early November — be it over hurdles or fences.

Elliott’s stable star lit up the novice hurdling division last season, winning his first four starts including an impressive victory in the Ballymore.
His fall three flights from home in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle muddied the waters in terms of plans for this season, with Elliott and owners Gigginstown House Stud still considering whether to keep Samcro over the smaller obstacles or pursue a career over fences this term.

Elliott told At The Races: “There’s no decision made yet, to be honest. I’ll have to talk to Michael and Eddie (O’Leary) over the next couple of weeks and make a decision on what we’re going to do. “I like to start a lot of my horses off up in Down Royal, ground permitting, and that’s where he’ll start off, over hurdles or fences.”
Report geoff m September 18, 2018 5:35 PM BST
News awaiting????
Report Magic__Daps September 22, 2018 6:47 PM BST
Last price matched 4.5 - for Champ Hurdle
Report Quevega06 September 23, 2018 8:37 PM BST
How much for though?
Report Quevega06 September 23, 2018 8:37 PM BST
Money for Melon in the Arkle also
Report irishone September 24, 2018 10:16 PM BST
Eddie is the judge
And he knows
You cant trust chestnuts
Report geoff m October 4, 2018 4:20 PM BST
someone keen to lay it@ 8.8 for a chunk
Report stan246 October 4, 2018 9:20 PM BST
^ that got matched as well didn't it? Back fine again but that would have to be a concern.
Report deepingfox October 9, 2018 11:00 PM BST
Gordy wants a crack at the Champion Hurdle, but it’s up to the boys. With a Down Royal in the offing soon, we will all know the first step soon enough. Maybe it could be over hurdles, see if he wins in a a canter, before deciding whether to stick or twist.

He is a 6yo, and if he runs in the Champion a Hurdle at 7yo, then. Novice chase career into 8yo, that would make him a 9yo when a 2nd season chaser trying for the Gold Cup. (Unless he tries the Champ H, and skips a novice chase campaign).

For me, I’d love to see him go Novice chasing this year, and being ready for the a Gold Cup, when he is an 8yo, in 18 months time.

A wonderful dilemma for the owners to have,
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