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Eeternaloptimist
24 Mar 16 14:48
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Date Joined: 28 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 38,237 | Blogger: Eeternaloptimist's blog
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A new King has been crowned. Will he remain on his throne in a year's time?
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Pause Switch to Standard View 2017 gold cup you decide.
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Report ReaseHeath February 13, 2017 3:37 PM GMT
at the risk of repeating myself, it won't be an extra furlong for Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup - only an extra 42 yards.

Assuming the Gold Cup is run over the advertised distance, unlike the Cotswold Chase.
Report maelduin February 13, 2017 3:52 PM GMT
Thanks ReaseHeath i wasn't aware of that. Was it widely documented?
Report ReaseHeath February 13, 2017 4:06 PM GMT
it's a shambles really, maeldun.

It was relatively widely reported but is poorly documented. If you just look at the headline results you will only see the advertised distance, you have to look into the detail to see that the distance of the race was increased by 192 yards. Why they can't document the results to reflect the true distance is beyond me.

This obviously happens on a regular basis but when it's a key Gold Cup trial and the additional distance is as much as 192 yards, it matters.
Report ReaseHeath February 13, 2017 4:10 PM GMT
in fairness, bha website does capture it in their results section:

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/race-info/fixtures/results/fixture-results/#!/2017/630
Report ZenMaster February 13, 2017 4:17 PM GMT
Zen ...we get it, you're a Thistlecrack fanWink


Of course but i also backed Native River throughout last season and have opposed him this season, i can't give up now!Cry
Report ZenMaster February 13, 2017 4:19 PM GMT
The 4 miler will never leave me from last season, i really did think he had it all for the 4 miler, but to get outpaced, well.....i can't forget that.
I was on him quite heavily. It was a frustrating day.
Report jasey February 13, 2017 6:33 PM GMT
Zen
don't let the past cloud your judgement for the future.
Report impossible123 February 13, 2017 6:52 PM GMT
Thistlecrack is presently 2/1, and assuming Vautour is still around and heading for this race what price would Vautour be? Shorter or longer than 2/1?

Vautour can jump but was caught by Cue Card in the King George (KG); Thistlecrack did not jump as well in the Cotswold as he did in the KG but was also caught by a proven stayer up the Cheltenham hill. Of these two horses which would one back, Thistlecrack or Vautour?

Personally, I'd back Vautour (4/1 last year) over Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup especially so if Thistlecrack is 2/1.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2017 7:01 PM GMT
So what is your point? Thistle price is too short??
And why compare with a horse that connections thought would not stay well enough to win a Gold Cup???
Report impossible123 February 13, 2017 7:20 PM GMT
buddelia,
Yes, at 2/1 Thistlecrack is far too short as he needs everything to go right for him on race day ie ground, jumping and stamina (all three) - the ground he very possibly will get but the other two requirements, unlikely; I believe he would be prone to making the same mistakes he made in the Cotswold in the Gold Cup once again.

The connections of Vautour are interested in winning only even if it means in a much less competitive and prestigious race - they are just too scare of defeat. I believe if Vautour was still around he'd be Gold Cup bound with/out Djakadam.
Report buddeliea February 13, 2017 7:32 PM GMT
Well I think hes too short as well,but just did not really understand the point in going on about Vautour.

They seem obsessed with winning the Gold Cup,if Vautour had convinced them he would stay the trip he would have run in the Gold Cup and Djak would either have joined him or ran in the Ryanair.

Anyway Vautour is sadly gone,not much point in this really.
Report impossible123 February 13, 2017 7:53 PM GMT
I agree, Vautour is sadly history but I do have this inclination his connections could be rewarded (finally) in this race when they least deserve it.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 13, 2017 10:52 PM GMT
Thistlecrack will not now be any shorter than 2/1 on the day, in fact if your looking for anything bigger i would put my shirt on Baldys offering something like 3/1 or even 10/3 as one of his pushes at 10am on the Friday morning. Even 4 weeks out am pretty confident this will happen. Ok max bet is £100 with him and if your a bigger player or are restricted/closed down not much point but well worth waiting till the day now and taking chance this happens.
If like me you can get to 3 or 4 shops in the car within the half hour these offers last for and get on online, well sorted Wink

It's what i plan on doing again this year as i do every year. Miss juicy antepost price, gone too short? Wait till the day where you then have the race conditions staring you in the face then look for the offers Excited
Report ZenMaster February 14, 2017 10:47 AM GMT
don't let the past cloud your judgement for the future.


Seeing Native River get outpaced over 4 miles at Cheltenham last year is a hard image to lose, especially when he was struggling to get away from 150 rated animals this season on g/s.
He has been elevated to GC status due to his form on soft ground, his form on g/s is way short of GC class.
Report cyclops February 15, 2017 2:32 PM GMT
Completely agree Zen Master.
While NR's style has been impressive, his substance has not.
Does anyone believe Le Mercurey would not be pulled up a long way from home in a Gold Cup?
An irrelevant piece of form in my view.
He can't be dismissed but, on all evidence so far, it would need to be a very weak Gold Cup for him to have the class to win. Perhaps it might be just that, but he's short enough for me.
Report GAZO February 15, 2017 5:30 PM GMT
le mercurey ran many clouds to pretty much the same distance before he beat thistlecrack,so looks like the top two in the market might struggle
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 15, 2017 5:39 PM GMT
So what wins then if the top two in the market can'tConfused

The record in the race of previous beaten horses is, well, for all to see so i can't have Djackadam/Cue Card winning, though they are sure to run well.

In fact scrap what i was going to say, this years renewal is shaping up to be a similar one to that when Lord Windermere won. All them at the head of the market were much of a muchness, in other words easy to pick holes in, we all latched onto one or two and up popped the previous years RSA winner at 33/1ShockedWink

I know it was Blaklion, and it was a poor renewal, but wasn't we all saying the same about Lord Windermere as we are about BlaklionConfused
Report duffy February 15, 2017 5:44 PM GMT
I agree, along with the CH, the GC is absolutely wide open IMO.
Report impossible123 February 15, 2017 7:30 PM GMT
Don Cossack was a better horse than this lot including Thistlecrack; Djakadam finished behind him despite falling and cutting himself in his prep race before Cheltenham. Could this be Djakadam's year (3rd time lucky) considering the wretched luck his connections have had recently?
Report Graeme83 February 17, 2017 2:49 PM GMT
I'm not a back to lay punter. If i was i'd say the 33/1 nrnb on BDM is worth taking on bfair sportsbook. Not even left in the ryanair.
Report impossible123 February 17, 2017 4:27 PM GMT
33/1 (nrnb) for BDM is an enterprising bet; he'll trade shorter towards race day especially if soft ground is anticipated, with Thistlecrack going the opposite way.
Report buddeliea February 18, 2017 4:07 PM GMT
Cue Card looking like regression aint happened yet.
Report impossible123 February 18, 2017 4:46 PM GMT
Far from it from that performance; he beat a horse rated 156 by an easy 15 lengths. Cue Card is reaching his prime.....in the Gold Cup next month, and he will atone for his mishap in the race last year!
Report Jb23 February 21, 2017 12:41 PM GMT
NEWS: Timico Gold Cup favourite Thistlecrack has been ruled of for the remainder of the season with a slight tendon tear.


This festival is testing new limits
Report Graeme83 March 3, 2017 3:31 PM GMT
Any other more of that fans out there ?
Report Lady Margaret March 3, 2017 4:21 PM GMT
Kevin Blake said he More of That was of interest at the Betfair Preview on Weds
Report FOYLESWAR March 3, 2017 4:42 PM GMT
see  minnela rocco thread ,horse has had more problems than linsey lohan but he has had a wind op since his last run apparantly and he has bwon a stayers a beating annie power a subsequent champion hurdle winner ,talent is their if he can come back to his best form plus spring ground has a fair chance imo,have backed him about a week ago around 33s good luck
Report duffy March 3, 2017 5:40 PM GMT
Funny that he's had the wind op after his last run because I've thought that he had been showing a lot more of his old sparkle in his last two runs.
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 4, 2017 7:39 AM GMT
What you need is a 2nd season chaser chaser with not too many miles on the clock. Maybe winning a reputable G1 like the Feltham last year and running well in the KG.

If only I could find a horse to back at a nice price for this race, the search continues.

Time for a cup of tea.
Report buddeliea March 4, 2017 8:29 AM GMT
Laugh
Ive had a couple of bob on here,and will probably have a small e/w on the day.
Form stands up with NR and Cue Card,albeit right handed though.
Still there are worse at far shorter odds imo.
Report Paterson92 March 4, 2017 9:59 AM GMT
Does anyone know if Minella Rocco is an intended runner?
Report Graeme83 March 4, 2017 10:53 AM GMT
Yes paterson. He is an intended runner at this moment in time.
Report FOYLESWAR March 4, 2017 11:32 AM GMT
already had some of that ,maybe time for more of that !
Report wellchief March 4, 2017 11:47 AM GMT
More of That is about as reliable as an 80's Rover imo - he's never been the same since his World Hurdle win - he was a very lightly raced 6 year old in such a big race, don't know if that has anything to do with it, but since then the wheels have come off.  Apart from beating up novices in small runner fields, he's broke a blood vessel, been pulled up and beaten 20 lengths in his next two races.

He did show more promise last time out but 20/1 for the blue riband event wouldn't interest me, but good luck mate!
Report dunlaying March 4, 2017 3:32 PM GMT
If you are looking for a flutter at a big price , what about Smad Place?
Look back at his Hennessy and you will find enough form there to give him a serious chance of winning. His form with the late Many Clouds can be interpreted to give him a great chance also. 50/1 NRNB might not be value but it is tempting.
Report buddeliea March 5, 2017 8:52 AM GMT
Not for me but If he gets his ground he may well give you a run for your money.
Report That is all March 5, 2017 9:23 AM GMT
Smad Place will give you a run for your money as he'll probably bowl along in front... suspect he'll be cruised past 4/5 out however by a couple of these & fail to make the frame as per the previous two years imo...
Report buddeliea March 5, 2017 10:57 AM GMT
Funny horse in a way......you look at his best form hes right up there,his Hennessey run with Native River puts them very close at level weights.And he was very impressive when he won the Hennessey.
He has not got close in his efforts in the Gold Cup though,and he did have good ground last time.
All in all maybe an e/w squeak if he gets decent ground and can get into a rhythm out in front.
Report Jb23 March 5, 2017 11:13 AM GMT
More of that is winning the national Laugh
Report shockster March 5, 2017 12:39 PM GMT
Everybody talking about Definitly Red yesterday for the National after his easy win. What it certainly is, is another boost for Bristol De Mai's Haydock demolition job. Otago also came out and franked that form in great fashion also.  It would appear BDM was not right at Newbury and would be 10/1Ish if he hadn't run. 25/1 is still value and I've added him to Champagne West & Minella Rocco.
Report teewyre March 5, 2017 1:58 PM GMT
Like the look of Outlander at decent odds. Has been improving with every run this yr and wasn't stopping at the end of the Lexus.
Report ReaseHeath March 5, 2017 2:33 PM GMT
I like Bristol De Mai and will definitely be backing him at some point.

Other factors are that he was absolutely hammered in the betting at Newbury and went off favourite - although that might partly have been down to the late jockey change on Native River.

Also they took him out of the Ryanair after Newbury I think - whereas NTD used that as a stepping stone before Imperial Commander graduated to staying chases.

His festival run last year suggests he's not particularly ground dependent - in fact better ground might well compensate for the extended trip. Looked a thorough stayer at Haydock but had enough speed as a juvenile to win two Grade 1 hurdles at around 2 miles.

He's a solid jumper with nothing worse than a 3 in his form figures - albeit the 3 at Newbury was last of 3! I think the excuses for his run at Newbury are plausible and he was probably jumping around there on 3 good legs.
Report dunlaying March 5, 2017 3:16 PM GMT
I already had him in and can easily envisage him seeing off Native River.
Report Can't Catch Me March 9, 2017 4:15 PM GMT
Cue Card weak today. Out to 5.7...
Report stewarty b March 9, 2017 4:26 PM GMT
Cue Card weak today. Out to 5.7...




Aye, now why would that be?
Report Can't Catch Me March 9, 2017 4:32 PM GMT
I dont know stewarty.

Perhaps some think because the ground is drying out. Im not sure that's a factor myself as Native River is shortening, and Id fancy he would be more inconvenienced by better ground than CC myself. CC has plenty of good form on spring ground at Cheltenham.
Report stewarty b March 9, 2017 4:37 PM GMT
I'm on CC at 7/2 ante-post and it's still 3/1 with most books. Providing all is well with the horse I will be dipping my toe in the water again.
Report stewarty b March 9, 2017 4:39 PM GMT
If the ground really dries out and they decide to water the course I hope it's no worse than good to soft. Looked the winner last year until Brennan bottled it. (IMHO)
Report stewarty b March 9, 2017 8:32 PM GMT
9/2 on here now but still 3/1 with most books????
Report stewarty b March 9, 2017 10:42 PM GMT
Cue Card being backed again as I type...
Report ReaseHeath March 10, 2017 2:39 PM GMT
Don Poli out...I wonder if Empire Of Dirt may now turn up here after all...
Report firstimevisor March 10, 2017 2:41 PM GMT
very likely now
Report duffy March 10, 2017 2:45 PM GMT
Elliott says that they may well now shuffle the pack, EOD a very likely runner now I'd have thought. Backed it at 20's on here as soon as RUK announced it.
Report impossible123 March 10, 2017 3:30 PM GMT
Ya, EOD will be here bound if Elliot's musing was a guide. I think EOD is 2nd best of the Irish after Djakadam, and is improving; the trip will suit better than the Ryanair too, and 18/1 here (now) is value, I firmly believe.
Report Can't Catch Me March 10, 2017 3:46 PM GMT
Elliot has been trying to get EoD in the GC for ages. Bet he's made up with this!
Report asparagus March 10, 2017 4:15 PM GMT
Whilst no question Elliott as desperate for the switch i think it's far from certain he will persuade the O'Leary's. After all Outlander has always been considered as the Gold Cup first string rather than Don Poli. If Empire of Dirt switches it only leaves them Sub Lieutenant in there own race.
Report impossible123 March 10, 2017 4:26 PM GMT
Elliot will fix it....done the 1st bit (???).
Report impossible123 March 10, 2017 4:26 PM GMT
Elliot will fix it....done the 1st bit (???).
Report impossible123 March 10, 2017 5:15 PM GMT
Post Don Poli's injury Outlander is friendless here. Could he be Ryanair bound instead?
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 10, 2017 5:24 PM GMT
123 strikes again

It would be quite difficult for a horse to run in a race he's not entered in
Report ReaseHeath March 10, 2017 5:32 PM GMT
Eddie O'Leary's quotes on Racing UK site after the Don Poli news broke are worth repeating:

"We'll run the horses in the race we feel they have the best chance of winning.We're just getting over this news and we don't need to be making any definite plans for the other horses just yet."
Report impossible123 March 10, 2017 5:35 PM GMT
Why not, just pay a supplementary fee even though he was taken out just a few days ago? John Gosden did with Golden Horn.
Report marychain1 March 10, 2017 5:57 PM GMT
God I hope they swap Outlander and EoD round.
Report Graeme83 March 10, 2017 7:37 PM GMT
MOT blue. Maybe got tipped up. I'm a small stake punter, but if he stays around 14's i'll see if i could go back in.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 10, 2017 8:17 PM GMT
Cos am pretty sure the supplementary day was today. I'm sure u can't just add a horse to a race whenever u want to
Report the bloob March 10, 2017 10:48 PM GMT
Outlander not declared for Ryanair, I think they will leave them both where they are. I can't believe how short Empire of Dirt is given that it is a likely non-runner
Report Jb23 March 11, 2017 7:39 AM GMT
Same Bloob. I keep loading up on Sub Lieutenant whilst his price is pinned to Empire to Dirt under the false assumption they'll both run. Bit of good weather and decent ground, SL could easily go off 9-2/4-1
Report trigger3 March 11, 2017 5:15 PM GMT
Djakadam 7/2 is a ridiculous price, it's a lay all day long. Can't have Cue Card either you'd have to imagine a more progressive animal will beat those two. Native River I wouldn't rule out and can certainly picture him in the frame staying on up the hill.
Report easygold March 12, 2017 12:02 AM GMT
Some fish got there.. or are u guys for real
Report impossible123 March 12, 2017 4:20 PM GMT
I think this is looking increasingly like the year for Djakadam. He is more experienced and matured; very likely will encounter his ideal ground; a good prep, and the opposition is not that great either.
Report Angela Rebecchi March 12, 2017 7:18 PM GMT
Has Cue Card regressed? Can't have Djakadam having improved and Cue Card would have beaten him last year.
Report impossible123 March 12, 2017 7:34 PM GMT
I agree CC would have beaten Djakadam last year the manner the former was going. But Djakadam has an easy and an uninterrupted prep this compare to last year eg falling and cutting himself; Djakadam will most likely get his ground (good) as opposed to CC (softish).
Report Angela Rebecchi March 12, 2017 7:57 PM GMT
Being 11 you could argue he is going to have to have regressed but CT think's he is as good as ever. Djakadam put his best performance in when he was 6 on the soft ground I thought, I couldn't be backing either with any confidence as I can make a solid case for them both and Native River let alone the outsiders, so at the prices it's not for me. Djakadam was 6/1 after Thistlecrack was withdrawn, not sure I'd want to be backing him now at 7/2 though I think that's still a fair price/.
Report impossible123 March 12, 2017 8:10 PM GMT
You are right Djakadam was 6/1 after the scratching of Thislecrack; Djakadam and Cue Card were 10/1 (have bets as proof) at one time without Thistlecrack soon after they were beaten in their races.

I think now both are priced fairly given their prices in last year's Gold Cup and the present calibre of the other Irish contingent. It may look an open race however, I'd not be surprised if the winner wins handsomely similar to Don Cossack last year.

I hope they all get their chance to prove who is the best next friday.
Report Angela Rebecchi March 12, 2017 8:12 PM GMT
Spot on. For all the talk of outsiders, just like last year until CC fell, you'd not be surprised to see the front 3 in the market be the ones battling it out 3 out. I just have a funny feeling Native River is going to grind the victory out.
Report Angela Rebecchi March 12, 2017 8:13 PM GMT
Smad Place and Don Poli were smashed on last year.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 12, 2017 8:14 PM GMT
Djackadam was 14s str8 after Lexus.
Report johnn March 13, 2017 9:49 AM GMT
Djakadam was 16s on Sportsbook after the Lexus. They kindly let me have £5.23 each way at that very price.
Report trigger3 March 13, 2017 12:20 PM GMT
The drying ground will go against Djakadam, by Friday it could be borderline good ground which will give the race a different complexion. Of the 3 principals in the market I'd favour Native River but it wouldn't be at all surprising if none of those 3 won the race. More of That is the interesting one for me, he obviously has ability but his soundness can be questioned but at a decent price he will be my selection as they wouldn't be running him if he wasn't going without a chance.
Report impossible123 March 13, 2017 4:37 PM GMT
I think connections of Djakadam would prefer good ground for him. If so, Djakadam could very well start fav on race day.
Report trigger3 March 13, 2017 5:09 PM GMT
I seem to remember Mullins and Walsh thankful for the rain for Djakadam on the morning of the Coneygree GC win which I believe was Djakadam's best performance to date. I thought that he would have to have won an ordinary Lexus to stand a chance in this years GC. He is still young enough in years and has course form in a substandard year. However like many French bred, its hard to see the improvement in him and he may have peaked early.
Report Angela Rebecchi March 13, 2017 10:34 PM GMT
Spot on trigger.
Report CheltenhamRoar March 15, 2017 12:09 AM GMT
Bonkers that they're not running empire of dirt in the GC, he's an absolute perfect horse for the race and Elliot knows it too
Report Graeme83 March 16, 2017 10:27 AM GMT
Coleman - mot
Fehily - m rocco
Report CheltenhamRoar March 16, 2017 3:12 PM GMT
I suppose that can be seen as a good prep for the gold cup tomorrow (empire of dirt)
Report lewisham ranger March 16, 2017 4:36 PM GMT
I think cue card is more than just a sentimental selection and my spidey senses are telling me he wins Shocked
Report ReaseHeath March 16, 2017 5:10 PM GMT
Tizzard stable form is horrible, has to be a concern.
Report Shrewd_dude March 16, 2017 6:02 PM GMT
Yeah. 13 runners at the meeting and 6 pulled up. When did he last have a winner?
Report impossible123 March 16, 2017 7:48 PM GMT
Crunch day tomorrow,...who will win this race? Certainly it won't be Empire Of Dirt as he has been scratched. Will it be Djakadam, the bridesmaid for the previous two runnings?; Cue Card, to atone for his unfortunate fall 3 out last year?; Native River, the young pretender who has won every prestigious chase this season perhaps? Or could one from across the sea gatecrash and steal it from under their noses?
Report bagnall82 March 16, 2017 9:25 PM GMT
I think jonjo could well have the winner here and with fehily on board im going to siding with minella Rocco but can also see MOT running a big race
Report Graeme83 March 16, 2017 9:34 PM GMT
M Rocco needs a strong pilot in the finish if he's still standing or in touch. Is Fehily that man, i genuinely don't know. Some armchair jockeys would put him and Jacob down as not strong finishers. If they are right it might be a national prep for rocco...at best.
Report buddeliea March 17, 2017 5:36 AM GMT
I have revived my Bristol de Mai bet now with the amount of water they put on the track.
Lively outsider.
Think Cue Card will do it though.
Report wellchief March 17, 2017 8:23 AM GMT
My pocket desperately wants Sizing John, but heart and head will be screaming for Cue Card.
Report impossible123 March 17, 2017 8:40 AM GMT
I have 3 running for me here so hope one hits the bullseye otherwise this Cheltenham is not of fond memories despite anteposts on Altior, Might Bite and UDS; I could do with Death Duty winning too.
Report wellchief March 17, 2017 8:49 AM GMT
Completely unoriginal but I would be amazed if one of the top five in the betting didn't win this.

Sizing John is the unexposed one stepping up in trip whose form ties in really well with Sub Lieutenant; Outlander has beaten Djakadam over 3m (which to me is a much more important piece of form than their 2.5m race) and Outlander is in the Sizing John category; Djakadam been there and done it, Native River just finds more improvement with every run and Cue Card is Cue Card.

Really looking forward to this. Luckily I go into this day with a marginal profit for the week, even if I lose every bet today (only have 3 bets today), so I can enjoy the race without worrying about money.

Good luck all (and mainly to Cue Card!)
Report dunlaying March 17, 2017 11:53 AM GMT
Cue Card but I hope Champagne West wins for Hank.
Report lewisham ranger March 17, 2017 11:56 AM GMT
after great analysis I've narrowed it down to

CUE CARD

NATIVE RIVER

JACKADAM

SIZING JOHN

OUTLANDER

TEAFORTWO

One of these will win Cool
Report Goretski March 17, 2017 12:40 PM GMT
Place lay Djakadam

Sizing John in what I think will be an awesome performance!
Report alanc1 March 17, 2017 3:24 PM GMT
Native River or Minella Rocco . Both backed antepost and still confident
Report impossible123 March 17, 2017 4:14 PM GMT
Sizing John is a well deserved winner. I just hope he comes back to defend his crown next year; Djakadam was outstayed by Native River for a place after jumping the last in 2nd place - I do not think he stays the Gold Cup trip either.
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