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willie the milk
12 Jan 14 15:57
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Date Joined: 16 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 631 | Blogger: willie the milk's blog
I believe Sir Tom is putting up one for the Gold Cup on Tuesday.
We all know he will not put up anything in single figures so take out Bob, Conti & CC.
Will he tip up FL or AF at 12s? Doubtful. He will want a bigger priced selection.
I think he will be tipping either Dynaste at 33s or Lord Windermere & Triolo DAlene at 40s.
Thoughts?
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Report almera January 12, 2014 6:23 PM GMT
Does anyone think it could be Lyreen Legend? Was still looking good 2/3f from home in the Lexus and appeared to be in process of running a big race before blowing up in what was his seasonal reappearance. Ran well in RSA last year so know acts on the course and should come on loads for that run. If he was to put in a winning performance in the Hennessy then the 50s on offer now will look big.
Report FOYLESWAR January 12, 2014 6:33 PM GMT
its still more open than it appears on paper inmo,bobs worth is a worthy fav ,but think he is not easy to keep right ,had a few niggling probs the last few seasons and hendos body language a few weeks ago suggested he is still quite fragile. worse bets than triolo at the prices and im talking my self into going in on him e.way nrnb.
Report FOYLESWAR January 12, 2014 6:35 PM GMT
why not bally ? on an upward curve ,won the hennesy well and handicappers do progress to win this a la synchronised !
Report GI MAC January 12, 2014 6:37 PM GMT
Triolo has won a recognised GC trial, he is young, progressive, and a thorough stayer, likes a decent surface he has plenty going for him, needs to improve but no reason why he can't. Only neg is course form, but at 40/1 NRNB it's worth a pop.
Report ACStafford January 12, 2014 7:33 PM GMT
As has already been suggested, Triolo D'alene and Lyreen Legend are strong possibilities. Dynaste, Rocky Creek and Al Ferof are the others. I reckon he will pick Triolo D'Alene, but Al Ferof could be a big price NRNB if he won the Denman Chase.
Report jasey January 12, 2014 7:43 PM GMT
Pricewise is a ****g disease.
He will pick a non runner.
Report alleged22 January 12, 2014 7:46 PM GMT
lol synchranised ive just had to remind myself what he beat TGB knockara beau burton port, time for Rupert and long run

personaly I think trilo has masses to find to even think of lining up..
Report buddeliea January 12, 2014 8:17 PM GMT
Rocky Creek beats him at the weights....strictly.
So if its Triolo,then maybe its Rocky creek.
Personally think if he picks either of them hes worse than I thought he was!!
Report FOYLESWAR January 12, 2014 8:25 PM GMT
the other he could put up is vino griego big price but a lot to find !
Report Graeme83 January 12, 2014 8:34 PM GMT
It's not that hard to guess. In my opinion it may either be Rubi Ball or Dynaste.
Report Ramruma January 12, 2014 8:37 PM GMT
Triolo looks more of a National type so maybe the one he beat: Rocky Creek 33/1 though I guess that is slightly a punt on the weather so a repeat of last year's rain would not go amiss.

Paul Nicholls says on Betfair: "Hennessy runner-up Rocky Creek is fine after his little setback after Newbury and goes for the Argento at Cheltenham on January 25, and he will get an entry for the Gold Cup as well as the Grand National."
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/paul-nicholls-exclusive-my-running-plans-for-2014-030114-9.html

@almera may be right about Lyreen Legend, especially as Sir Tom does like to look across the Irish Sea.
Report Ballydoyle January 12, 2014 8:41 PM GMT
Personally I think there are better ante post players on here than this "Sir" Tom. But each to their own. If he picks a couple of those mentioned above then good luck with that
Report Ramruma January 12, 2014 8:44 PM GMT
Strictly on value grounds, Cue Card at 8/1 is big if you take the view Kempton is not his track.

8/1 may be too short, this far out, for Pricewise ante-post but I'd expect him to be the selection if prices are unchanged on Gold Cup day.
Report stevo1 January 12, 2014 9:06 PM GMT
Most of his ante-posts last season were non hopers or non runners, if i remember correctly. If second guessing First Lieutenant only logical choice without top 3 in market.
Report Ballydoyle January 12, 2014 9:07 PM GMT
No brainer who he should pick at this stage

First Lieutenant or Al Ferof are the only value left in race at present
Report PeteTheBloke January 12, 2014 9:16 PM GMT
It'll be First Lieutenant IMHO
Report Glossy January 12, 2014 11:04 PM GMT
I reckon he'll pick Dynaste.
Report GI MAC January 13, 2014 6:01 PM GMT
You can understand why people get p*ssed off with Price wise, around 9 different horse being shortened by various bookies in preparation of his selection.
Report Graeme83 January 13, 2014 6:06 PM GMT
The RP is funded by bookmakers. They scratch each others back. All they have to do is ask the RP who it is, but the mock suspense is free adverts for both of the pricks.
Report ronnie rails January 13, 2014 6:19 PM GMT
no blue at all but take it from me its al ferof
Report GI MAC January 13, 2014 6:21 PM GMT
Eh? plenty of blue on odds checker, but not Al ferof.
Report Nighthawk January 13, 2014 6:30 PM GMT
Katenko is one not mentioned, hopefully would only run on soft,
on a NRNB basis 50-1 looks value. I'm on that, Rocky Creek and last Instalment
all non runner no bet all at 50's
Report willie the milk January 13, 2014 6:52 PM GMT
Plenty of blue with Dynaste and a little with Rubi ball
Report CheltenhamRoar January 13, 2014 7:06 PM GMT
Will hardly be Rubi Ball,He's as exposed as they come,wont be good enough,
Also doubt it will be FL as he was blatantly outstayed in the lexus over a shorter distance than the GC,
Reckon it will be Rocky Creek or Trilo D'alene
Report ronnie rails January 13, 2014 8:15 PM GMT
I did say there was no blue for this horse but it would be the pricewise hope it was helpful for some of you.

trouble is already layed it to my max so its the worst loser in my book
Report BJG January 13, 2014 8:18 PM GMT
Al Ferof is PW
Report foolsgold123 January 13, 2014 8:27 PM GMT
Best price is the morning 16/1?
Report BJG January 13, 2014 8:41 PM GMT
Al Ferof
Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup
1pt win at 16-1 with William Hill and Ladbrokes
Report buddeliea January 13, 2014 9:10 PM GMT
Ballydoyle
     12 Jan 14 21:07
No brainer who he should pick at this stage

First Lieutenant or Al Ferof are the only value left in race at present


Yep but I thought he would pick FL,as hes more likely to line up imo.

Well done Ronnie, you knew mate.
Report buddeliea January 13, 2014 9:13 PM GMT
Glad ive already backed him ages ago.
Hes a horse I like a lot as most on here know,but 12/1??? he should only be that price if he runs a big race at Newbury.
Report foolsgold123 January 13, 2014 9:43 PM GMT
Still think Ryanair will suit him better.
Report ACStafford January 13, 2014 10:50 PM GMT
This is the correct selection, but only with NRNB. It's a bit of a nuisance, as I was planning to back Al Ferof NRNB, but forgot to do it prior to this announcement, so will have to try get on in the morning.
Report alleged22 January 13, 2014 11:36 PM GMT
no way will Ryanair suit it better..

I admit I was wrong when I argued 2 yrs ago that arkle was best choice (pocket talking) when he should have gone Jewson.

it will defo be GC this year
Report Steamship January 14, 2014 8:07 AM GMT
I did tell you all on the 8th Jan that Al Ferof would go for the Gold Cup and that I thought Pricewise would pick him. Its just on the other thread called Gold Cup. Hope you got on before the price collapsed
Report alleged22 January 14, 2014 8:12 AM GMT
yes mate I got 16,s before the KG and 25,s after Wink
Report Ballydoyle January 14, 2014 11:10 AM GMT
Erm he hasn't been confirmed for the Gold Cup yet though. he is running in the Denman to see whether he runs in the Ryanair or the Gold Cup. stable has the 2nd fav for Gold Cup and nothing for Ryanair which he is holding still at around 7s.
Report Ballydoyle January 14, 2014 11:13 AM GMT
Pricewise ain't no Patrick Veitch either is he?lets be honest.
Report robbo69 January 14, 2014 12:26 PM GMT
Good old Tom doing his bit for the bookies profits again another tip in a race it wont run in. He's a star!!
Report Nighthawk January 14, 2014 6:40 PM GMT
Looks like Ladbr0kes has put two fingers up to Tom by holding the 16's
Report willie the milk January 14, 2014 7:34 PM GMT
Need to be honest and say, it didn't look like a Gold Cup winner in the King George
Report Ballydoyle January 14, 2014 7:52 PM GMT
Better chance in Ryanair than Gold Cup.
Report alleged22 January 14, 2014 7:59 PM GMT
too early to say bally only 1 attempt at 3 miles in a grade 1 against fully fit rivals, then theres the bounce factor, the denman will tell us where he,s heading, 16,s could look very big or very small after that race..
Report Ballydoyle January 14, 2014 10:26 PM GMT
And the 6-1 Ryanair NRNB could look massive
Report ACStafford January 14, 2014 11:11 PM GMT
Pricewise is about finding the best value in a race. I haven't seen the Racing Post today, so apologies if I've got this wrong and he has suggested using the NRNB, but surely 14/1 NRNB is far better value than 16/1 with antepost rules. I'd argue that two months before a race, with the potential for injury, they are fairly closely matched valuewise. But when the horse has three entries for the festival, and is yet to win over further than 2m5f, taking the shorter price with the safety net is clearly far better value.
Report Ballydoyle January 14, 2014 11:19 PM GMT
Absolutely.90% of my pre March is NRFB or NRNB then back in big when all NRNB
Report robbo69 January 15, 2014 8:31 AM GMT
ACS 
I agree with you on the NRNB part but surely tipping horses that are at best 'unlikely' to run in a race is no value. Check out his tips for the big races at last years chelt festival
CH Cottom Mill did not run
Champ Chase Wishful Thinking did not run
World Hurdle Sorry cant remember but did not run
Gold Cup Captain Chris did not run
Add to that Grand National Tidal Bay did not run.
Looks like a pattern forming to me!!
Surely him putting up a horse that is really likely to run in the race would give his army of followers ( as you will see im not one ) a bit of interest.
Im sure if he'd put up say Hurricane fly when 6/1 or Bob Worth at 6/1 a couple of weeks early would represent much better value???
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 8:37 AM GMT
Should have went for First Lieutenant IMO as guaranteed starter barring injury, better chance and similar odds

Annie Power another put up eh? More likely to go in World.
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 8:39 AM GMT
Looking at the selections from last year....Cotton Mill, Wishful Thinking, Captain Chris....all poor selections to be honest
Report jasey January 15, 2014 8:47 AM GMT
You forgot last years King George jokewise put up Sizing Europe that did not run.
Tidal Bay got injured like his Welsh national tip Le Beau Bai which is bad luck really.
Report Arklearkle January 15, 2014 10:55 AM GMT
They probably sell or hope to sell extra copies. TS obviously a good tipster but all these NRs in the big races tell us whats important. Cant think of any other reason.
Report Tory January 15, 2014 11:45 AM GMT
Wishfull thinking finished 3rd in the queen mother last year
Report Steamship January 15, 2014 11:58 AM GMT
His 10 Ante Post selections in 2013 produced one winner Solwhit   advised at 16-1 World Hurdle
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 11:59 AM GMT
Yeah 25l behind Sprinter Sacre. I mean let's be honest even Forrest Gump wouldn't be stupid enough to bet Wishfull Thinking to beat Sprinter Sacre last year.
Report Steamship January 15, 2014 12:04 PM GMT
Ballydoyle he went for Williams Wishes in the Queen Mum it was a non runner

Segals National tip in National was Cappa Bleu e/w 25-1 finished 2nd.

Any Ante Post losers were well paid for by Ruler Of The World 33-1 for The Derby

Its alright having a go at the guy but get the facts right to start with
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 12:10 PM GMT
Steady now Tom...i keep no record of what this guy picks cos I'm not that interested. I wouldn't even know but poster above said Wishful Thinking. So he tipped Williams Wishes?jeezo Williams Wishes to beat Sprinter Sacre???
Report robbo69 January 15, 2014 12:24 PM GMT
Sorry steam
You are correct it was Williams wishes.
His first AP GN tip was Tidal Bay though he might have tipped Cappa Bleu nearer the race.
My point is that alot of his AP tips dont give you a run for your money, I take your point about the derby but im not really a flat player.
Report Steamship January 15, 2014 12:39 PM GMT
robbo you dont have o apologise to me if he went for Tidal Bay then he got injured.

I don't keep records of his tips but they are on Tipsterform.
His record for the year 2013 is 47pts up at Betfair sp. I see these posters knocking him and that they dont follow him yet they are throwing away profit most years and with no travel, most days you dont need to buy the paper.
Report Steamship January 15, 2014 12:42 PM GMT
As for Williiams Wishes to win the Queen Mum then yes it does seem a stupid bet, similar to Newmill winning the same race in 2006 which included Moscow Flyer and Kauto Star. Imperial Commander winning the Gold Cup that had Kauto Star and Denman how ridiculous
Report buddeliea January 15, 2014 12:49 PM GMT
Not a pricewise follower at all, Much prefer to live or die by my judgement, and I think its a big part of the fun trying to pick winners.
Whether we follow him or not, we will still have winners and losers.
Those that do follow him,that's up to them.
Personally think hes a pain in the backside when a horse I want to back suddenly goes a lot shorter, but at the same time he obviously helps people to get a nice priced winner.
Take it or leave it, accept it and get on with it imo. He has a place in this game.
Report cyclops January 15, 2014 12:57 PM GMT
Yes, but he now seems to have a cut-off point of at least 10/1 for all ante post recommendations which, in this case, only two months before the race, compromises his selections. I thought today's reasoning was poor and very woolly. (Al Ferof won the Paddy Power off only a slightly lower mark than Long Run was beaten off the year before he won the Gold Cup, therefore he stands a chance is flabby thinking to put it at its mildest). Looked to be a case of "lets find a price then construct an argument" on this occasion and doesn't seem to have his heart in this selection at all. The far better approach would have been "no bet, folks, I can't see any value" but that doesn't sell papers.
Report Ramruma January 15, 2014 12:58 PM GMT
The problem with Pricewise antepost is that three or four horses get shortened the night before as punters (and forumites) try to anticipate the great man.
Report pedrobob January 15, 2014 2:21 PM GMT
Looked to be a case of "lets find a price then construct an argument" on this occasion

isn't that the basis for all Pricewise selections?
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 3:55 PM GMT
Ok steamship...I'll put it this way.....

Williams Wishes had fooking no chance in a Champion Chase and those who backed it were simply stoopid

Go make your own opinions. Not interested in Sir Tom crap
Report Steamship January 15, 2014 4:36 PM GMT
Why do you get so wound up by it then?
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 5:30 PM GMT
Cos I find it quite sad how people get so excited when he tips something. His record simply isn't that good to be awarded all the coverage.

Nothing against the guy, it's not his fault but why is he at the Racing Post? Whats the point of having him? 47 points to betfair SP I read. So given it's mainly weekends that's 1 point per weekend yeah? An even money shot every Saturday at SP?

Imperial Commander you say? Standout bet if you knew anything about racing. Newmill was good though. No doubt but that was what?2006?

Can't defend a selection like Williams Wishes to beat Sprinter Sacre. No way and the bookies would've loved that let me tell you
Report brandyontherocks January 15, 2014 5:55 PM GMT
I think you need to put into perspective the mans job.
He gets a certain window to give a VALUED tip on a race.
He may not have an opinion on the race but still is contracted to give a tip.
He showed a 40+ pt profit last year. His followers are generally £10 punters so a £400+ profit to them must be good news.

Bally you say you're a pro punter so you understand value.
You've had 4/5 pints on races at chelt. Not because they will win but gives you a value edge.

Tom gets one tip at a certain date. Not an easy job.
Report brandyontherocks January 15, 2014 5:56 PM GMT
Punts not pints.
Maybe come the day it might be 4/5 pints a day tho Tongue Out
Report buddeliea January 15, 2014 5:59 PM GMT
Laugh
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 6:07 PM GMT
Fair enough I shall leave him alone but as for the pints Jesus if Cue Card wins the Gold Cup it won't be pints I'll need.....it'll be gas and airShocked
Report brandyontherocks January 15, 2014 6:16 PM GMT
I'll give St Johns the heads upWink
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 6:21 PM GMT
You won't need toWink
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 6:21 PM GMT
Unless they're gonna run it over 2m7f at Kempton of course?Silly
Report Arklearkle January 15, 2014 7:30 PM GMT
... and that 2m 7f is really 2m 5 or 6f.
Report jasey January 15, 2014 7:50 PM GMT
40 pts profit on betfair cumon whats the real figure.
Brandy,who does pricewise steel his tips from.
Report brandyontherocks January 16, 2014 5:51 PM GMT
Paul jones I think
Report jasey January 16, 2014 8:17 PM GMT
Ha Ha like it
Report judorick February 8, 2014 4:48 PM GMT
30
Report FOYLESWAR February 8, 2014 5:05 PM GMT
bollax when he tips something ante post  it forces my hand a bit earlier than id like , it also gives the bookies an excuse to shorten everything up ,
Report FOYLESWAR February 8, 2014 6:39 PM GMT
the value has to be with mouse s horse ,been beaten 3 times by bobs but never been beaten far , has the class to win and its a horse race and anything can happen and 1 of these days he is going to turn it around with bobs ! a very consistent horse and available at a double figga price on here  around 16 at the time of posting  looks to have been targeted for this race  jumps travels and as long as its not bottomless he has a very good each way chance imo, runs tomorrow so I will have to get on before !
Report FOYLESWAR February 8, 2014 7:01 PM GMT
actually I am going to wait till after tommorows race and see how he does !^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Report ACStafford February 8, 2014 7:16 PM GMT
He's always better in the spring and on better ground, so I wouldn't be too put off if he got beat tomorrow.
Report foolsgold123 February 8, 2014 7:19 PM GMT
He never wins though?
Report judorick February 11, 2014 12:51 PM GMT
AF now out, another AP bet down for TS
Report stevo1 February 11, 2014 1:05 PM GMT
Fl allegedly going Ryanair now.
Report alleged22 February 11, 2014 1:23 PM GMT
where did you see that judo as you know I am a huge AF fan...?
Report judorick February 11, 2014 1:29 PM GMT
Nicholls said it at GN lunch, tweeted by Racing Post
Report alleged22 February 11, 2014 1:31 PM GMT
im a wee bit gutted Sad
Report judorick February 11, 2014 1:33 PM GMT
Racing Post ‏@RacingPost  45m
Al Ferof is out of Gold Cup. Paul Nicholls says: "He'll run in the Ryanair, but the Queen Mother is an option if it's really testing."
Report judorick February 11, 2014 1:33 PM GMT
never had any chance in the GC sorry
Report alleged22 February 11, 2014 1:38 PM GMT
on soft/heavy I defo agree but good ground I thought he was in with a shout, but now that option has gone...
Report gnashersblackpool February 11, 2014 2:33 PM GMT
al a sea of blue on oddschecker for ryanair as well.
Report buddeliea February 11, 2014 5:02 PM GMT
Way hes ran last 2 races he wont win anything!!
Be better back At Cheltenham on decent ground though.......if he gets it!!!
Report ReaseHeath February 11, 2014 6:34 PM GMT
Good move to run Alf in the Ryanair, he should nearly win that.

Still time for him to come back next year and have a go at the Gold Cup, similar profile to Imperial Commander.

Might have been different without the year off.
Report ReaseHeath February 11, 2014 6:35 PM GMT
I actually did n't think he ran badly in the King George, budd - Sat had to be the ground surely?
Report buddeliea February 11, 2014 6:52 PM GMT
Ground both times Rease,but Kempton he was beat after 2 fences!! Then ran on like a stayer at the end.Had that been 2 and a half Cue Card would have beat him a lot more than he did!!!
They have judged him on 2 runs on soft,the last one on desperate ground.
Would not have won either race over 2 and a halfm.
Its more the ground than the distance imo.

Given decent ground and as long as he aint suffering any effects from that on Saturday,he should run a good race back at the course which imo suits him perfectly.
Report naraic February 11, 2014 7:10 PM GMT
Stevo1

I'm interested to learn the source of your comment....."Fl allegedly going Ryanair now"
Report buddeliea February 11, 2014 7:17 PM GMT
decent ground Gold cup be ok for FL......wont it??
Report stevo1 February 11, 2014 7:42 PM GMT
Naraic page 3 racing post today,more realistic target Ryanair.
Report Ballydoyle February 11, 2014 7:46 PM GMT
Al Ferof should go front run in Champion Chase if S Sacre doesn't turn up...and I don't think he will turn up. I've got him for Ryanair but horse just doesn't look as if he can finish off over longer trips now then you see him in at Ascot FTO over 2m 3f and think the QM is not a bad shout at 20/1 ew
Report naraic February 12, 2014 8:16 AM GMT
Thanks Stevo1

FL was my biggest ap bet - my only silver lining is that I've him NRNB - can't see him figuring in GC at this stage!
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