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thehoffisback
18 Dec 13 16:12
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Date Joined: 22 Jun 09
| Topic/replies: 922 | Blogger: thehoffisback's blog
I backed Sizing Europe for this race last year ante-post with the belief that he had more chance of winning this than beating Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother.  I have always loved Sizing but always knew he wasn't going to beat the mighty Sprinter Sacre, i thought he should of went for the Ryanair where i felt he had solid winning credentials.  I see him in the betting this year for the Ryanair but i think connections have made a big blunder here because he could of won this last year and this year I think he may be too old now to win at the festival.  I can't see Sizing Europe lining up in the Gold Cup so surely this is his only realistic option for the festival.
I really like the Ryanair and for me is one of my favourite races of the festival.  At the moment I am unsure who I should be siding with and for the moment am gonna keep my powder dry.
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Report duffy December 18, 2013 5:53 PM GMT
That's a pretty under whelming opening salvo to be honestLaugh
Report thehoffisback December 18, 2013 7:42 PM GMT
Plain
Sorry to disappoint you Duffy, were you hoping for a 100-1 tip?
Report ACStafford December 18, 2013 7:58 PM GMT
There could be some real value antepost in this race, as the top six in the market all have question marks about whether they'll run:

Cue Card - will surely run in the Gold Cup now, after winning one of the top trials
Simonsig - Henderson might be tempted to run him in this, but will the owners be more interested by the more prestigious QMCC
Dynaste - Gold Cup looks more likely
Flemenstar - will he go to Cheltenham?
Arvika Ligeonniere - needs to go right handed
First Lieutenant - maybe the Gold Cup?

Therefore finding a definite runner will surely result in a value price. I'd be very interested by FL if connections decide to go down this route.

Fwiw, I doubt Sizing Europe would have beaten Cue Card last season.
Report foolsgold123 December 18, 2013 8:14 PM GMT
I'm on Al Ferof 20/1 Sizing Europe 20/1 and Simonsig 5/1 all NRFB. Simonsig surely goes off short priced favourite here he won't go queen mother with sprinter sacre. Was hoping Al Ferof goes here but he looks like a gold cup horse now.
Report brandyontherocks December 18, 2013 10:42 PM GMT
Out of the 6 you mention I can only se Simonsig  and First Leu running.
Simonsig will not take on the aeroplane unless there are problems with Sacre. That's if we see Simonsig this season.
Report neill d December 18, 2013 11:17 PM GMT
I could see Simonsig running in the Gold Cup, especially in light of Long Run's decline and Bobs Worth's recent blow-out. He is a better race-horse than Bob's Worth to me and if he stays this trip there is only Cue Card who has comparable innate ability. It is the big one after all.
Report brandyontherocks December 19, 2013 12:16 AM GMT
I agree Neil, Simonsig could be a Gold Cup horse, but not having a run before Christmas is a huge negative.
Report ACStafford December 19, 2013 12:16 AM GMT
I missed out Al Ferof. I'd be surprised if he wasn't aimed at the Gold Cup now. Does anyone know if First Lieutenant is an intended runner in the Lexus? If he were to win, then he would surely run in the Gold Cup too (a big if, he only seems to show his true form in the spring). There's so much doubt about all the principals and their running plans regarding Cheltenham that I'm tempted to back Benefficient, even though I don't particularly rate him. It wouldn't be the first time that a horse showed massively improved form at the festival and came back and did it again the following year.
Report Fabulous December 19, 2013 1:32 AM GMT
Quite like Baily Green for this, and have had a very small go at 44's and 46's. Should have put more on, but got him in a few multis, and with him having had a setback, thought that'll do for now. I'll wait and see how he looks on his comeback. Certainly think the step up in trip will suit him.
Report buddeliea December 19, 2013 7:55 AM GMT
Like the Al Ferof 20/1 nrfb.
Probably be heading for the Gold Cup, but its possible that could change after the King George.
Hope not personally,and don't think it will, but its a good bet all the same.
Report sintonian December 19, 2013 12:58 PM GMT
I can't believe people are talking about the Ryanair for First Lieutenant again. He should have been in the Gold Cup last year and will most likely be this year, fitness and form permitting.
Report ACStafford January 3, 2014 5:29 PM GMT
With Sir Des Champs injured and out of the Gold Cup, I'm guessing that O'Leary will want First Lieutenant in the Gold Cup. Nicholls has stated that Al Ferof will run in the Denman Chase over 3 miles. If he wins that, there would have to be a good chance he will run in the Gold Cup. There's question marks about where Cue Card will be running, with this race being one of three possibilities now that their is doubts over Sprinter Sacre participation in the Champion Chase. There must be some good value somewhere. Benefficient is hard to make out; he has some very good form but some performances which are well below standard.
Report unclepuncle January 9, 2014 10:17 AM GMT
Obviously a lot depends on where Cue Card and First Lieutenant run, with both quite likely to go for the Gold Cup.

Given that the one I really like at the prices is Lyreen Legend (I've got a few quid on at 3 figure oddsCool) - just hope they aim him for it and not the Gold Cup.
Report BJG January 9, 2014 12:15 PM GMT
The Ryanair Chase
Grade 1, 2m 5f, £275,000. Thursday, March 13th.

Form  Horse    Age Owner    Trainer
343/1-13 AL FEROF (FR)  9 John Hales    Paul Nicholls
1213P-4 ALDERWOOD (IRE) 10 J P McManus    Tom Mullins IRE
FP1-113 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE (FR) 9 Susannah Ricci   Willie Mullins IRE
32P4-25 BAILY GREEN (IRE) 8 Adam Scott    Mouse Morris IRE
411P-41 BENEFFICIENT (IRE) 8 A Shiels/Niall Reilly   Tony Martin IRE
2/11FF-1 BOSTON BOB (IRE) 9 Andrea & Graham Wylie  Willie Mullins IRE
110-012 CANTLOW (IRE)  9 J P McManus    Paul Webber
11151-3 CAPTAIN CONAN (FR) 7 Triermore Stud   Nicky Henderson
251-02U CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 9 Mark Boothright   Martin Keighley
103-101 CLOUDY TOO (IRE)  8 Formulated Polymer Products Ltd Sue Smith
112-312 CUE CARD   8 Jean Bishop    Colin Tizzard
4123-23 DAYS HOTEL (IRE)  9 James Treacy         Henry de Bromhead IRE
1121-25 DYNASTE (FR)  8 John White    David Pipe
F25-615 FAGO (FR)   6 Andrea & Graham Wylie  Paul Nicholls
213-342 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud  Mouse Morris IRE
6F-2132 HIDDEN CYCLONE (IRE) 9 Mrs A F Mee & David Mee  John Hanlon IRE
P23413- HUNT BALL (IRE)  9 Atlantic Equine   Nicky Henderson
1P0P-55 KAUTO STONE (FR) 8 Robin Geffen    Paul Nicholls
4520-10 KID CASSIDY (IRE) 8 J P McManus    Nicky Henderson
3P1111/- LAST INSTALMENT (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud  Philip Fenton IRE
2F423-5 LYREEN LEGEND (IRE) 7 Lyreen Syndicate   Dessie Hughes IRE
13F2-21 MARITO (GER)  8 Susannah Ricci   Willie Mullins IRE
132234/- MEDERMIT (FR)  10 The Dunkley & Reilly Partnership Alan King
13P22-P MENORAH (IRE)  9 Diana Whateley   Philip Hobbs
F114-24 MODULE (FR)  7 Simon Clarke    Tom George
4141-U4 MOUNT BENBULBEN (IRE) 9 Barry Connell    Gordon Elliott IRE
1/12-300 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 11 Andrea & Graham Wylie  Willie Mullins IRE
F1011-5 RAJDHANI EXPRESS 7 Robert Waley-Cohen   Nicky Henderson
042-111 RATHLIN   9 Gigginstown House Stud  Mouse Morris IRE
P/646-1U RIVERSIDE THEATRE 10 Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership  Nicky Henderson
1-F21P2 ROI DU MEE (FR)  9 Gigginstown House Stud  Gordon Elliott IRE
3112-12 ROLLING ACES (IRE) 8 Paul Barber, Ian Fogg & David Martin Paul Nicholls
30-3626 RUBI LIGHT (FR)  9 Bill Hennessy    Robbie Hennessy IRE
21F1-1F RUPERT LAMB  8 Andrea & Graham Wylie  Willie Mullins IRE
122-124 SIZING EUROPE (IRE) 12 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead  IRE
606F0-1 TATENEN (FR)  10 The Stewart Family   Richard Rowe
FP1-332 THEATRE GUIDE (IRE) 7 Jean Bishop    Colin Tizzard
5145/4-4 TIME FOR RUPERT (IRE) 10 Littlecote Racing Partnership  Paul Webber                     
111221 TONER D'OUDAIRIES (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud  Gordon Elliott IRE
1241-11 TWINLIGHT (FR)  7 M L Bloodstock Ltd   Willie Mullins IRE
224121- UPEPITO (FR)  6 Andrew Brooks   Venetia Williams
133-662 WISHFULL THINKING 11 Diana Whateley   Philip Hobbs
10-1112 WONDERFUL CHARM (FR) 6 Robin Geffen    Paul Nicholls
43 entries, 20 Irish-trained.
Report BJG January 9, 2014 12:15 PM GMT
Cue Card features among 43 entries for the £275,000 Ryanair Chase, to be run at Cheltenham on Thursday, March 13th.

The eight-year-old sauntered to the widest-margin success seen in the history of the race when beating First Lieutenant by nine lengths in last year's renewal, but trainer Colin Tizzard is now harbouring Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup ambitions following a decisive four and a half-length success in the Betfair Chase and a close second in the King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day.

A record 20 Irish-trained entries include the Tony Martin-trained Benefficient, who belied his odds of 20/1 to win last season's JLT Novices' Chase over two and a half miles by three and a half lengths from Dynaste.

Martin reported: "We have entered Benefficient in both the Ryanair Chase and BetVictor Champion Chase. We will just see how he is and what the ground is looking like nearer the time before making a decision.

"Everything seems OK after Leopardstown and it was a good performance. It looked a strong race beforehand, but he always seems to run well around Leopardstown and I thought he was in really good form going there.

"He had probably done a bit too much before he ran at Wetherby and, in hindsight, it was a mistake to send him there.

"We will see how Benefficient is later in the month before deciding whether or not he will run before The Festival."

Timeform Ratings for the Ryanair Chase (weight-adjusted)
191 CUE CARD
182 DYNASTE
181 FIRST LIEUTENANT
180 MENORAH
178 AL FEROF
176 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE
176? MEDERMIT
173 CHAMPION COURT
173 RIVERSIDE THEATRE
Report chief dan January 9, 2014 5:38 PM GMT
I like the looks of marito,the race is going to cut up an think the 20s available now is a good price just hope mullins puts her in this raceWink
Report brandyontherocks January 9, 2014 7:12 PM GMT
Agree Chief. I think he will be aimed at the race and was running a fine race in last years Jewson.
Report chief dan January 9, 2014 7:21 PM GMT
yea was running good race last year an would of deff been in mix if hadn't fallen,cue card,flight lieut will run gold cup arvika lige runs champ chase so its bound to shorten had a dabble on it today as can see going of single figures
Report brandyontherocks January 9, 2014 7:43 PM GMT
16's top price now
Report shockster January 14, 2014 9:45 AM GMT
With Cue Card now being talked of as 85% certain to go for the Gold Cup and Pricewise tipping Al Ferof for the GC.  FL and Dynaste almost certainly going for the GC also.  Surely Benefficient at 8/1 NRFB has to be a play. He may go for the QMCC but I doubt it as he won the Jewson LY beating Dynaste.  He has also won 3 other G1 races and will be a lot shorter in March.  Marito would have been behind him IMO when it came down in the Jewson also.  The opposition is pretty thin when you go through them.  Sizing might be worth a play also.
Report Fabulous January 14, 2014 10:00 AM GMT
I've added Toner D'Oudairies to my Baily Green bet.

No idea if it's a serious target, but he's made the last 2 festivals, so feasible that he'll be coming over again, though maybe not for this. Kind of went under the radar a wee bit, though it may be he's just short of the standard required. I'm always wary of betting these types that go over a variety of trips, but took a chance up to 90's that I'll get a run.
Report brandyontherocks January 15, 2014 6:10 PM GMT
Think its a cracking race to get involved with.

Like, said above, the top few in the betting are very unlikely to run so if you can find a likely runner, who should get plenty of value.
Report Ballydoyle January 15, 2014 6:40 PM GMT
Dynaste 182 and Benefficient with Grade 1s to his name not listed?WALOFS.

Benefficient took care of Dynaste at the Festival last year and is a standout at 8/1 NRFB as is Al Ferof at 6/1. Hidden Cyclone the other.
Report shockster January 17, 2014 6:25 PM GMT
I've found what I think is another interesting runner and put it on another thread but should be on here.  RATHLIN.  He runs in Saturdays Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas. Presumably, as a pipe opener for future races. However, he really came into his own winning his last 3 runs over fences and in some style too over the summer.  The last of which he murdered Hidden Cyclone at Galway (Racing Post comments "easily") and HC really has franked the form since.  Rathlin has had 1 run at Cheltenham which was a creditable effort behind Al Ferof in the Supreme, and the Ryanair is his distance. 20/1 NRFB seems good value to me with the doubt about so many runners taking part and The Ryanair is his only entry, so no need to wonder where he will run.  I have already backed Benefficient for this at 8/1 NRFB and am happy with my current position on this race.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2014 10:54 AM GMT
Cue Card available at 20 on here now,have I missed some sort of announcement hes definitely in Gold Cup??
Report The RealDeal January 18, 2014 11:08 AM GMT
Colin Tizzard said he was 85% likely to go for the Gold Cup a few days ago.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2014 4:16 PM GMT
cheers
Report buddeliea January 18, 2014 5:30 PM GMT
Reckon Hidden Cyclone will end up in Ryannair after that today,they aint gonna want to take on SDG again....let alone have the prospect of Sprinter Sacre!!
Ryannair looks the race for him imo.
Report mary hinge January 18, 2014 8:04 PM GMT
it is difficult finding a definite runner for the race, Menorah and Marito are the plays at the moment for me, both have this as their single entry at the festival and both have run there before so at double figure prices both are value.
Report shockster February 2, 2014 11:47 AM GMT
Rich Ricci on ATR today says Marito has had a setback and not known when he is next out.
Report FOYLESWAR February 5, 2014 7:49 AM GMT
the shark says champ chase will suit h.cyclone better and chelt not sire de grugs track, so likely to go champion ,or words to that effect !
Report unclepuncle February 9, 2014 5:36 PM GMT
Surely Lyreen Legend has to go here now after another patent non-staying effort at 3m today.
Report ThunderRoad February 10, 2014 11:22 AM GMT
You would have to think that Al Ferof will also be aimed at the Ryanair after Saturday's performance
Report BJG February 12, 2014 12:02 PM GMT
The Ryanair Chase
Class 1, Grade 1, 2m 5f, £275,000 Total Prize Fund. Cheltenham, Thursday, March
13, 2014. For 5yo+ which are allotted a rating of 130 or more by the BHA Head of
Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races
run up to and including March 6 - horses which are not qualified for a rating in Great
Britain, Ireland or France may also be entered & such horses may be eligible providing
the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse's racecourse performances up to and
including March 6 would merit a minimum rating of 130 (the decision of the BHA Head of
Handicapping shall be final). Weights: 5yo 11st 9lb; 6yo+ 11st 10lb. Allowances: mares
7lb. Entries closed January 7, entries revealed January 9 (43 entries), scratchings
deadline February 11 (39 remain), £13,750 supplementary entry stage and six-day
confirmation stage March 7. Final 48-hour declaration stage, 10.00am, March 11. Form
figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of
Monday, February 10.

Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
343/1-132 AL FEROF (FR) 9 John Hales Paul Nicholls
1213P-4 ALDERWOOD (IRE) 10 J P McManus Tom Mullins IRE
FP1-1131 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE (FR) 9 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
32P4-2520 BAILY GREEN (IRE) 8 Adam Scott Mouse Morris IRE
411P-41 BENEFFICIENT (IRE) 8 A Shiels/Niall Reilly Tony Martin IRE
2/11FF-16 BOSTON BOB (IRE) 9 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
110-012 CANTLOW (IRE) 9 J P McManus Paul Webber
11151-3 CAPTAIN CONAN (FR) 7 Triermore Stud Nicky Henderson
251-02U26 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 9 Mark Boothright Martin Keighley
103-101 CLOUDY TOO (IRE) 8 Formulated Polymer Products Ltd Sue Smith
112-312 CUE CARD 8 Jean Bishop Colin Tizzard
1121-25 DYNASTE (FR) 8 John White David Pipe
F25-615 FAGO (FR) 6 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls
213-3423 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
6F-21322 HIDDEN CYCLONE (IRE) 9 Mrs A F Mee & David Mee John Hanlon IRE
P23413-6060 HUNT BALL (IRE) 9 Atlantic Equine Nicky Henderson
1P0P-553 KAUTO STONE (FR) 8 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls
4520-10 KID CASSIDY (IRE) 8 J P McManus Nicky Henderson
3P1111/-31 LAST INSTALMENT (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Philip Fenton IRE
2F423-55 LYREEN LEGEND (IRE) 7 Lyreen Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE
132234/- MEDERMIT (FR) 10 The Dunkley & Reilly Partnership Alan King
13P22-P MENORAH (IRE) 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
F114-241 MODULE (FR) 7 Simon Clarke Tom George
4141-U4 MOUNT BENBULBEN (IRE) 9 Barry Connell Gordon Elliott IRE
1/12-3004 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 11 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins
IRE
F1011-5 RAJDHANI EXPRESS 7 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson
042-11153 RATHLIN 9 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
P/646-1U RIVERSIDE THEATRE 10 Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership Nicky Henderson
1-F21P20 ROI DU MEE (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
3112-12 ROLLING ACES (IRE) 8 Paul Barber, Ian Fogg & David Martin Paul Nicholls
30-3626 RUBI LIGHT (FR) 9 Bill Hennessy Robbie Hennessy IRE
21F1-1F RUPERT LAMB 8 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
122-124 SIZING EUROPE (IRE) 12 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead
IRE
606F0-12 TATENEN (FR) 10 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe
FP1-332 THEATRE GUIDE (IRE) 7 Jean Bishop Colin Tizzard
5145/4-40 TIME FOR RUPERT (IRE) 10 Littlecote Racing Partnership Paul
Webber
1112212 TONER D'OUDAIRIES (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
1241-113 TWINLIGHT (FR) 7 M L Bloodstock Ltd Willie Mullins IRE
133-6621 WISHFULL THINKING 11 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs

39 entries remain after February 11 scratchings deadline
18 Irish-trained

THE FOLLOWING 4 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: DAYS HOTEL (IRE),
MARITO (GER), UPEPITO (FR), WONDERFUL CHARM (FR)

Timeform Ratings (Weight-Adjusted)
191 Cue Card
182 Dynaste
180 Last Instalment
180x Menorah
176 Arvika Ligeonniere
175+ Al Ferof
173 Riverside Theatre
172 Twinlight
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