Cheltenham 2015

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12 Nov 13 23:04
Date Joined: 30 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 48 | Blogger: splinterboy82's blog
Entered on Sunday (17/11/13) over both 2m & 2m6f....
This beast is the one i'm most excited about this season....Mullins new superstar?
Took 20/1 Neptune - Can see this going off 5/4f after hacking up in Ireland all season prior to March 2014.

Think Moyle Park will end up being Mullins Supreme horse & Briar Hill heading for AB...

No need to wait until March when you can guess in November ;-)
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Report Tory December 6, 2014 3:21 PM GMT
No money waiting to back?!?!?
Report layingisthewayforward December 6, 2014 5:18 PM GMT
In the CH ?  Money to back on my screen.
Report Tory December 6, 2014 7:18 PM GMT
There is now but was zero when I posted this.  Maybe it was a technical thing but just seemed strange at the time
Report Fashion Fever December 7, 2014 4:02 PM GMT
relkeel on saturday could be a good spot ?, hard to see him as a kempton horse
Report Arklearkle December 8, 2014 4:51 PM GMT
Looks like he's for Kempton.
Report bluebirdfan December 9, 2014 7:34 AM GMT
Willie saying he's going to Kempton gives connections of The New One plenty of time to decide not to take him on until March
Report sisyphus December 9, 2014 12:57 PM GMT
What did Ricci have to say about running plans for Faugheen over the Christmas season? "Christmas time is going to be another re-match between Hurrcane Fly and Jezki [at Leopardstown] which I'm fine with, but as a second-season novice do I really want to be taking those guys on?"

He said, "Do I really want to be taking on any experienced hurdlers like Paul's horse [Irving]? The Chirstmas Hurdle seems a good race for us here, but there is a really good alternative at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, the race which Annie Power won last year and he would only have to carry a half-penalty for his Grade One win. We'll see how the race is looking. What he's up against is going to be the most important thing."
If Nigel says he's happy and we know he's happy and he says The New One is going too, then they will go the Annie route. They seem very anxious not to give Faugheen a hard race until its absolutely necessary
Report sj December 9, 2014 5:17 PM GMT
What is Ricci going on about? He's gonna have to face the best in 3 months anyway stop fu ck ballsing around
Report buddeliea December 9, 2014 5:23 PM GMT
I guess they think that's the best way of getting him there in March in the best shape.
long gone it seems are the days when they took each other on during the season.
Report sj December 9, 2014 5:31 PM GMT
The problem with that is the horse thinking whats going on when he's off the bridle and in a battle. If he is to win the Champion I'd expect him to handle Irving no problem
Report buddeliea December 9, 2014 5:44 PM GMT
So would I, if he cant handle Irving he aint as good as we think, and he certainly aint winning a Churdle.
Report sj December 9, 2014 5:45 PM GMT
Fingers crossed buddeliea
Report Arklearkle December 9, 2014 7:14 PM GMT
Agree if he cant handle Irving he should go chasing.
Report SoYouThink December 9, 2014 7:37 PM GMT
To be honest if he doesn't face a decent rival before March, it will just add mystique of the Champion Hurdle. I'm sure he'll be the one horse you can expect will split opinion right up until the race itself.

Irving is an improving horse too. It would be interesting if he developed into a Champion Hurdle contender himself.
Report Arklearkle December 9, 2014 8:01 PM GMT
Agree SYT. Of course most hotly fancied horses at the festival do split opinion which is a good thing in a way as it gives one a choice to back or oppose/lay. If he stays unbeaten but effectively beats nothing of consequence, which is possible, we wont know where he stands until the Tuesday afternoon.
Report Tory December 9, 2014 8:35 PM GMT
He'll run on Boxing Day and Irving won't see which way he goes up the straight. If Irving is going to get anywhere near him it will be at Kempton as he's a flat track bully, but I'm predicting a demolition job. Irving is mediocre at best
Report buddeliea December 10, 2014 6:55 AM GMT
well according to his owner he may run new years day at Cheltenham.

I too think hes a lot better than irving,but if he goes to Cheltenham without facing him or any other ch horses,than we wont know till march.
Report buddeliea December 10, 2014 6:57 AM GMT
I find it interesting :

do we want clashes during the season? or do we want that mystery going into the festival??
Report harry callaghan December 10, 2014 11:31 AM GMT
i think he will run in the christmas will be a bit of a cop out if he were to dodge the new one and irving...the irish horses aren't shirking the issue, so why should he?
Report Arklearkle December 10, 2014 12:44 PM GMT
I want mystery going to into the festival. Disastrous if its all sorted out in advance. Imo Irving is not a real contender for Cheltenham and if he beats Faugheen it will tell us that Faugheen is not as good as some people believed rather than Irving being a world beater. But hey I've been wrong before - many times!
Report harry callaghan December 10, 2014 1:30 PM GMT
personally i want to see him put some form in the book against proven types at 2 miles... beaten or not he will learn from it...he will learn nothing against slower horses in the relkeel hurdle imo whereas if he has to battle in this at speed we will see what we have got and the horse will learn plenty

nothing is going to be sorted out in advance arkle, good horses always meet in the christmas hurdle and this horse needs the experience and the punter wants to know whether 2-1 is a realistic price about a horse who hasn't faced a fast horse yet
Report bluebirdfan December 10, 2014 2:35 PM GMT
Hopefully it's Faugheen v Irving on Boxing Day and we can see how he deals with a proper 2miler on a sharp track, more of a speed test than he's had previously
Report harry callaghan December 10, 2014 3:20 PM GMT
am i missing something, all the talk is without the new one?? i thought the plan was both races for the new one??? or have connections said different??
Report Can't Catch Me December 10, 2014 4:44 PM GMT
Would surely be too much to ruin this weekend and Boxing Day harry?
Report harry callaghan December 10, 2014 4:46 PM GMT
how do you mean catch me?
Report buddeliea December 10, 2014 4:59 PM GMT
They ran him in both races last year Catch me.
And would have won both had he not missed the last in the Xmas race...imo
Although they may have a rethink on that of course.
Report harry callaghan December 10, 2014 5:18 PM GMT
ruin isn't the word i'd use catch me...this weekend we have a good match with the young horse getting 8lbs off the new one and who wants to see faugheen at 4-9 on boxing day? i want to see him tested and irving isn't what i would call a test would you? the new one on the other hand would be a great race and why not?
Report Smart Predator December 10, 2014 5:29 PM GMT
I think Catch Me meant to write run not ruin. And I also think he meant it'll be too much to run in both races after the extra race at haydock. Am I right CCM?
Report harry callaghan December 10, 2014 5:36 PM GMT
Laughah i see thought it was a strange one...

in answer to first question - well i suppose you could say that both are good prizes but i do see what you mean

personally i think he is in for a hard race saturday so tend to agree but if he wins easily again i think they will go
Report buddeliea December 10, 2014 5:36 PM GMT
Ah, that's a good point SP, I forgot he ran at Haydock.
Think it likely he wont be running 3 races in fairly quick succession.Especially if Xmas looks like being a tough one.
Report Can't Catch Me December 10, 2014 10:44 PM GMT
Spot on SP. That's exactly what I meant... Sorry that wasn't clear lads.
Report bluebirdfan December 16, 2014 12:12 PM GMT
The New Ones jumping is getting better, as NTD said the other day he expects Faugheen to be in front at the last in the Champion Hurdle and then it's whether The New One or Jezki can tap him for toe coming up the hill
Report Arklearkle December 16, 2014 1:01 PM GMT
NTD doesnt appear to be aware that Faugheen won a 2 mile race at Punchestown and that he slaughtered about six horses who were not that far behind in Vautours race in Cheltenham. In truth TNO is the horse which needs further and should have gone chasing last season.
Report alleged22 December 16, 2014 2:31 PM GMT
^^^ he beat them about the same distance except sgt reckless who he beat a bit further, but he ran at Aintree and it may have been 1 race too much
Report buddeliea December 16, 2014 4:18 PM GMT
Be very wary of using end of season form for the following seasons festival.    As for. TNO going chasing this you really think a horse that's virtually guaranteed to be 1st,2nd or 3rd in the CHurdle should be chasing? Especially one that has the best 2 mile form over hurdles along with Jezki. He has a serious chance of winning the race this season and talk of chasing is imo complete nonsense.
Report Harvester December 16, 2014 7:18 PM GMT
Agree with Budd. Also, i was very critical last season of TNO and STD.. but this season he seems to be really getting to grips with how to deliver these horses at the business end of the race, and TNO's jumping has been spot on which leads me to think that he may well be able to tail Faugheen and get him on the hill.. and no-one knows how F will react when put under that kind of pressure..
Report alleged22 December 16, 2014 7:26 PM GMT
I really hope the new one skips Kempton as when he beats faugheeen he,s really going to shorten, and I want big green opening day of the festival Happy
Report cufcno1 December 16, 2014 8:24 PM GMT
The new one has jumped better because it has being going at its own pace against inferior horses,as soon as it faces a decent horse,it will start demolishing them again !
Report buddeliea December 16, 2014 8:29 PM GMT
Maybe, maybe not. Talking of jumping...I don't think Faugheen is any better than TNO on that subject.

TNO wont run again at Kempton surely, 3 runs is enough before the new year I would have thought.
Report cufcno1 December 16, 2014 8:32 PM GMT
Nor jezki,they should have the bumper after the champion hurdle,save the groundstaff some work !
Report buddeliea December 16, 2014 8:33 PM GMT
Report duffy December 17, 2014 1:46 PM GMT
If faugheen makes the same mistakes as he did in the neptune going at CH pace he won't be in the lead at the last as it will cost him twice the amount of ground each time.
Report Paterson92 December 17, 2014 8:36 PM GMT
Willie Mullins expects "huge improvement" from Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.

A stunning winner at Cheltenham and Punchestown in the spring as a novice, the six-year-old leapt to the head of ante-post lists for next year's Champion Hurdle with a brilliant return to action in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot last month.

He will return to Grade One level on December 26 and Ireland's champion trainer believes his charge will strip much fitter with a comeback run under his belt.

Mullins said: "There must be huge improvement in Faugheen as he was pretty fat going to Ascot.

"Last season Faugheen was fit and scrawny and I was wondering where the improvement was coming from, but he must have come back in from grass 100 weight heavier."
Report Paterson92 December 17, 2014 8:38 PM GMT
“I’m not sure I agree with those prices,” he says, in reference to the Champion Hurdle market (Faugheen 2/1, Hurricane Fly 14/1). “Let’s just say I don’t think Hurricane Fly would’ve had any trouble beating the horses that Faugheen has beaten.”

Yet it’s hard to dampen enthusiasm for a horse like Faugheen. You can say he was an average point to pointer, you can say he was run over longer distances as a novice to avoid the ‘apple of my eye’ (Vautour – ‘he still is, he’s an oil painting of a horse to look at’) and you can say he hasn’t got the pedigree of a Champion Hurdler.

But you can’t argue with a seven from seven record, achieved in the style of a potential National Hunt great. And, despite his best efforts, Mullins can’t hide his excitement either.

“I was really worried about him going over to Ascot, could he win with his size? Ruby said he’d never sat on a horse as fat in a race like that before. So if he can do that with that sort of condition on him there must be loads of room for improvement for the rest of the season.”

Talk of The New One, though, sparks a strange reaction from Mullins.

“I didn’t see the (The New One’s) race,” he says, doing his best Arsene Wenger impression. “I hate looking at reruns. I didn’t look at it. I might sometime. There will be time enough to find out all that when we meet at Cheltenham. If we meet before, well, it looks unlikely.”

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Unlikely, maybe. But what if The New One does turn up at Kempton, Willie?

“We’re going to Kempton, whoever arrives there we have to take on. It won’t stop us, that’s our plan and we’re happy with that.”

Over to you, Nigel. You said you weren’t scared…

But, enough of that. Let’s say The New One stays in his box as planned. Who then will be the toughest opponent Faugheen has to face on December 26? Mullins nominates Paul Nicholls’ Fighting Fifth winner Irving.

“We’re going to Irving’s home ground,” Mullins says. “A flat, right-handed track will suit him, but Faugheen’s in good order and he’s going to have to pass that test.”
Report Paterson92 December 18, 2014 10:47 PM GMT
Great point made by Robbie McNamara on a podcast I was listening to earlier. Regarding a point that was discussed early on in this thread about Faugheen being run over 3 miles and the last Champion Hurdle winner that won over 3 miles previously. Willie's 3 novices last season were Vautour, Faugheen and Briar Hill that of course were to be separated between the 2m Supreme, 2m5f Neptune and 3m Albert Bartlett. Looking back on it now, Vautour was always aimed at the Supreme but looks now as though he had a problem seperating Faugheen and Briar Hill. Briar Hill had obviously won the 2m Champion Bumper and had consistently been run over 2m4f over hurdles in Ireland. Faugheen had of course won his bumper impressively over 2m in Ireland and won over 2m4f, 2m6f and 3m before a decision was made regarding Cheltenham targets. When put like that, the 3m win at Limerick is nothing significant.
Report splinterboy82 December 26, 2014 2:53 PM GMT
When the tapes go up on Tuesday 10th March 2015 - what price will he go off at? Champion in waiting!
Report sj December 26, 2014 3:04 PM GMT
Already a general price of 6-4
Report unclepuncle December 26, 2014 3:36 PM GMT
Can't see him being odds on unless he goes for the Irish Champion and thrashes HF and Jezki.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 7, 2015 2:00 PM GMT
Looking rather weak in the market this morning Shocked last price matched 2.9 Scared

Could be a good job i've laid off half my stake
Report Mr Eboue January 7, 2015 2:02 PM GMT
Perhaps people finally realising he's yet to beat a decent 2m hurdler?
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 7, 2015 2:20 PM GMT
Maybe, just been suggested to me that hes been trading too short for ages and hes just getting out to the right price for betfair now.
Report mrglovesthosetins January 7, 2015 5:38 PM GMT
Should be odds on - its different gear, forget about TNO getting stopped last year it got completely out paced - it wont get near a sniff of Faugheen !
Report harry callaghan January 7, 2015 5:56 PM GMT
worryingly weak in the market today
Report harry callaghan January 7, 2015 5:57 PM GMT
in fact the past 2 days he has been weak
Report Wicketd January 7, 2015 6:53 PM GMT
very weak indeed...tno cut across the board.

i remember vautour being very weak prior to supreme so not too worried yet
Report mrglovesthosetins January 7, 2015 6:58 PM GMT
Let it drift it - should be odds on !
Report Mr Eboue January 15, 2015 3:44 PM GMT
Straight to Cheltenham Ricci just said. Unsurprising really.
Report bluebirdfan January 15, 2015 4:38 PM GMT
I thought theyd have had a prep run somewhere tbh
Report harry callaghan January 15, 2015 4:47 PM GMT
hate stats but just 1 winner since 1993 had not run in same calendar year
Report Tory January 15, 2015 5:10 PM GMT
Yep, very much not delighted with this. Only ROR I think didn't run that year!! This is the issue with WPM having so many top class horses - their preps are getting more and more compromised
Report timtin January 15, 2015 5:16 PM GMT
i hope fitness wise he turns up better than ascot.. shame they don't run him in the irish ch it would boost their racing alot seeing faugheen and fly taking on each other on home soil for the first time..
Report harry callaghan January 15, 2015 5:20 PM GMT
he has been very weak on here tory for a few weeks, maybe he isn't pleasing them...not ideal though if your on
Report Tory January 15, 2015 6:41 PM GMT
I'm on and I'm on quite heavy - in lots of winning doubles prior to his Boxing Day saunter. Know this sounds stupid but I've been a massive fan since his bumper win and he won me a packet in the neptune so he owes me nothing, I just want him to get there with the best possible chance and the best possible preparation. This is not it
Report Tory January 15, 2015 6:43 PM GMT
Regarding his weakness, I'd imagine a decent amount of that has been people laying off their AP bets and reinvesting with the NRNB. You do lose some of the value but at least you won't lose if he doesn't turn up. I thought about it but haven't done it yet
Report harry callaghan January 16, 2015 10:23 AM GMT
Rich Ricci on Faugheen
Speaking on At The Races, Rich Ricci said: "I'm not sure he'll run again before Cheltenham. I don't think he needs to. He's still got a bit of condition on him and he'll improve from the run at Kempton."

surely if he has condition on him, a run would be beneficial?
Report Paterson92 January 16, 2015 10:40 AM GMT
Would have preferred a run but I'm not too bothered in all honesty. He's in the best possible hands and surely all the travelling to and from Britain must take a bit out the horse? We know he's not gonna run him against the fly, at least not until Punchestown in April perhaps but Mullins will have him in peak condition come March, he knows what it takes to win a Champion Hurdle. Ignore the weakness on the exchanges, it's more money in our pockets at the end of the day! Roll on March until we see the machine!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 16, 2015 1:54 PM GMT
What weakness in the exchanges? He is still too short in the market given the next 3 in in the market! If Faugheen is to be shorter than 5/4, what price do you make TNO JEZ AND HF?

On the day i fully expect to see Faugheen priced up at around the 2/1 mark. Poss seeing a 15/8 3 9/2 13/2 book. That right there is 90%, in a 8-9 runner field i would imagine that be about right. Can't see the books wanting to price up on a race where they make it filthy each way, a race where the front 4 in the betting will get bet on in equal measure to the chances they each have given its the Churdle and they each have their own fan base!
Report Paterson92 January 17, 2015 9:02 PM GMT
75% of this thread concentrates on Faugheen's jumping .... interesting after today! Roll on March 10th!
Report timtin February 5, 2015 3:26 PM GMT
Looking at Faugheen's evens price I wondered how the short priced favourties(below 5/2) fared in the past 20 years, and also the quality of the first 3 placed using racing post and timeform ratings:

1996 - Alderbrook LOST @ 10/11 - was the current champion, average TOP 3 RPR = 169, TOP 3 TF = 166
1997 - no short price fav, avg TOP 3 RPR = 163, TOP 3 TF = 160
1998 - no short price fav, avg TOP 3 RPR = 163, TOP 3 TF = 163
1999 - Istabraq WON @ 4/9 - was the current champion, avg TOP 3 RPR = 165, TOP 3 TF = 160
2000 - Istabraq WON @ 8/19 - dual champion, TOP 3 RPR = 165, TOP 3 TF = 160
2002 - Istabraq LOST @ 2/1 - TOP 3 RPR = 161, TOP 3 TF = 156
2003 - Rhinestone Cowboy LOST @ 5/2 - unbeaten in 4 starts over hurdles but only participated in low graded events winning by very small margins, TOP 3 RPR = 162, TOP 3 TF = 160
2004 - Rooster Booster LOST @ 11/8 - was the current champion, TOP 3 RPR = 165, TOP 3 TF = 160
2005 - no short price fav, TOP 3 RPR = 167, TOP 3 TF = 163
2006 - Brave Inca WON @ 7/4 - after the 2005 CH in which he came 3rd he then went on and beaten both the runner-up and the winner of the 2005 CH. TOP 3 RPR = 169, TOP 3 TF = 162
2007 - Detroit City LOST @ 6/4 - winner of previous year Triumph Hurdle, his record was showing 8 wins out of 9 over hurdles; Detroit City had beaten the 2004,2005 CH Hardy Eustace in the Bula Hurdle by 1 length while Hardy Eustace subsequently beat the 2006 CH Brave Inca by 3 lenths in the 2007 Irish CH. TOP 3 RPR = 164, TOP 3 TF = 158

2008 - Sizing Europe LOST @ 2/1 - in that season he beat(whilist receiving 6 pounds) 2007 CH runner-up Osana by 4 lengths, in the 2008 Irish CH he beat the former dual champion Hardy Eustace by 8 lengths. TOP 3 RPR = 163, TOP 3 TF = 159

2009 - Binocular LOST @ 6/4 - runner-up in the 2008 Supreme Nov Hurdle and unbeaten since then; last time out he beat the 2008 CH in the Bula Hurdle; TOP 3 RPR = 165, TOP 3 TF = 163

2010 - no short price fav, TOP 3 RPR = 167, TOP 3 TF = 162
2011 - no short price fav, TOP 3 RPR = 169, TOP 3 TF = 168
2012 - Hurricane Fly LOST @ 4/6 - was the current champion, TOP 3 RPR = 168, TOP 3 TF = 163
2013 - Hurricane Fly WON @ 13/8 - won the 2011 CH, unbeaten in 4 Irish G1s since the 2012 CH, TOP 3 RPR = 171, TOP 3 TF = 166
2014 - no short price fav,  TOP 3 RPR = 173, TOP 3 TF = 169

In total 12 short money favourites in the last 20 years, 8 losers and 4 only winners.

Out of the 8 losers, 4 of them were going into the race as current champions, the other 3 met and beat in the same season the current and/or former champions.

Out of the 4 winners, 3 of them were former champions while the other decisively beat the current and runner-up form the previous CH.

The top Racing Post ratings for past 20 years CH are:
Year/s Rating
2014 173
2013 171
1996, 2006, 2011 169

The top Timeform ratings for past 20 years CH are:
Year/s Rating
2014 169
2011 168
1996 166

Basically Faugheen is evens shot money and is against the 3 of the first 4 placed in 2014 CH which according to the most respected rating organizations is the best quality field in the last 20 years(the 2014 Champion Hurdle)

Is Faugheen on an impossible mission ? Is he that good to defy the best field in the last 20 years ? Is he worthy of the evens shot ? Will he be bigger on the day ? Thoughts ?
Report tomdeane February 5, 2015 3:44 PM GMT
I think he will be bigger on the day but not by much - I'd guess an SP of 11/8. I also think that he's not worthy of being an Evs shot given the calibre of opposition and his lack of experience at such a level, but I see him as the likeliest winner and wouldn't be surprised if he won it cosily. For me at least, he is a classic example of a horse that I would never back at the price, but whom I wouldn't want to take on too heavily as he does command huge respect.
Report timtin February 5, 2015 6:25 PM GMT
last week on morning line Geoff Banks was adamant that the bookies are happy to take Faugheen on at these prices but also said he'll be likely to go odds-on at SP which sounds a bit contradictory..
Report Arklearkle February 5, 2015 9:30 PM GMT
Tintin it probably says more about Geoff Banks than it does about the chances of Faugheen.
Report gazovic February 5, 2015 10:13 PM GMT
it also tells us plenty about racing post and timeform

a really interesting post though timtin
Report Arklearkle February 5, 2015 11:51 PM GMT
Yes Gaz we have spent the last few years convincing ourselves that this season's champion hurdle was going to be better than the last. With all due respect to Timeform I am not convinced that 2014 was that good.
Report timtin February 6, 2015 10:47 AM GMT
@Arklearkle you don't believe timeform, you don't believe racing post but you must believe the time. 2014 CH has set a new record on GOOD-SOFT ground with 3 seconds faster than Istabraq's 2000 CH ran on GOOD ground. It was that good.
Report gazovic February 6, 2015 10:51 AM GMT
Do you think that was good to soft ground last year timtin?
Report timtin February 6, 2015 11:17 AM GMT
I hope I've made it clear that I took the average of the performances of the first 3 placed just to point out the quality field Faugheen is up against.

For the individual top performances achieved in a Champion Hurdle in the last 20 years TF has 1st. 1995 ALderbrok(174) 2nd. 1998 Istabraq(172+), 3rd. 2011 Hurricane Fly(171+), 4th. 2014 Jezki(170)

@gazovic here are the going stick figures(everything below 7 is considered on the soft side)

11-Mar-14    Chase & H: Good to Soft (Good in places)    C&H: 6.9
11-Mar-14    Chase & H: Good to Soft (Good in places)    Old Course: 6.9
12-Mar-14    C & H: Good (Good to Soft in places)    C & H: 6.9
12-Mar-14    C & H: Good (Good to Soft in places)    C & H: 7.5
13-Mar-14    C & H: Good (Good to Soft in places)    7
14-Mar-14    C & H: Good (Good to Soft in places)    7.3

The Champion Hurdle was ran on 11 March with the ground good to Soft. 3 seconds faster than 2000 Istabraq's Good ground 2nd fastest time.
Report brandyontherocks February 6, 2015 11:19 AM GMT
The time looks very good compared to previous seasons because the new start for timing was moved forward last season.

Horses were in full stride by the time the clock started, where as normally the clock started as soon as the tape went up. Hence so many quick times were posted last season.
Report Arklearkle February 6, 2015 11:31 AM GMT
There is no way it was good to soft. My understanding was that Vautour also broke the course record in the first race that day. While Timeform was very good in days gone by I feel that they no longer have the same advantages they once held over everyone else. If the people working for TF are as good as some have us believe I dont believe they would be working for TF.
Report cufcno1 February 6, 2015 11:33 AM GMT
It was a warm day last year,proper good ground just about !
Report gazovic February 6, 2015 11:38 AM GMT
But timtin, did you think it was good to soft ground last year?

I once walked a course on the morning of racing with the clerk.
the stick readings would have provided good to firm.
10.something mostly .... 11 in bits.

'I cant put firm in the description' they said to me
'The horse boxes will turn around on the motorway'
Report tomdeane February 6, 2015 12:21 PM GMT
That was not good to soft ground last year!
Report ACStafford February 6, 2015 3:21 PM GMT
It was closer to good to firm.
Report Rathgorman82 February 6, 2015 3:45 PM GMT
Well, the "he smashed Josses Hill 22 lengths" brigade can now stick that in their pipe and smoke it as that "form" means diddley now Laugh
Report Wicketd February 6, 2015 4:31 PM GMT
not really, i'd actually say the bumper is where josses hill performs best as he doesn't have to jump Laugh
Report cufcno1 February 6, 2015 6:50 PM GMT
Rathgorman...this freak smashes everything in sight Laugh
Report timtin February 7, 2015 3:16 AM GMT
@gazovic i fail to see the relevance your story has regarding a championship race in which the readings of the going sticks were 6.9 meaning Good to SOFT for the first day. Its a fact that the ground only gets quicker with each day of the meeting, of course if it doesn't rain.
Report tomdeane February 7, 2015 12:03 PM GMT
timtin - have you considered the likelihood that the going stick wasn't administered correctly? There is simply no way on earth that it was good to soft last year. If it was, Hurricane Fly ran around 40 lengths faster than he ever has done and still couldn't place. Suspicious, no?
Report timtin February 7, 2015 1:01 PM GMT
If we don't trust the data that an organization such as turftrax is putting up, then what will we trust?

I'm not sure of your calculations reg. the Fly but it was an terrible pace set up in front. The point with the overall time is that it doesn't prove anything at all, but sometimes it just backs the form which says that the 2014 top 3 placed horses ran to best figures in the last 20 years and 2 of them will be present this year. If you also take that Hurricane Fly has the 3rd individual performance at a CH then we seriously must consider that Faugheen is up against mountains while he's priced at evens..
Report tomdeane February 7, 2015 2:14 PM GMT
timtin - you seem very confident that Faugheen is an awful price so wonder whether you are laying him for all you can?

I agree that he should be a bigger price, but I don't think it's too far out myself, and expect him to be very hard to beat.
Report timtin February 7, 2015 2:19 PM GMT
he's my banker actually Laugh I just want to know beforehand all the reasons why he can possibly get beat Devil
Report tomdeane February 7, 2015 2:48 PM GMT
Don't put yourself off!
Report ACStafford February 10, 2015 12:45 PM GMT
No entered at the weekend, so straight to the Festival it appears.
Report delsie777 February 14, 2015 4:58 PM GMT
Surprised the bookies haven't taken the chance to shorten Faugheen yet further after Blue Heron's win today
Report timtin February 14, 2015 5:04 PM GMT
there was no need as the Christmas Hurdle placings were simply confirmed. Purple Bay is the one far off his true odds, he should be in the 20s not 50s.
Report delsie777 February 14, 2015 5:10 PM GMT
I know there was no need - but I was surprised that they didn't. Have you backed Purple Bay Timtin?
Report timtin February 14, 2015 5:17 PM GMT
yes I want to get out of the win bet, only need the place part which will still be hard but his chances are much better than all other outsiders. Arctic Fire is a joke @ 16/1 but there you go.. hopefully PB will get shorter on the day.
Report delsie777 February 14, 2015 5:24 PM GMT
I quite like AF actually. Backed him eachway at big prices before pricewise nailed him. Think he's improving all the time, will have conditions to suit and will probably be ridden quietly. That said, I guess I wouldn't want to back him at 16/1
Report timtin February 19, 2015 10:21 AM GMT
its a plane! .. its a rocket! ... no!! he's Nicholls banker Faugheen Laugh... was shocked to hear that on ATR that from all Cheltenham runners his banker is The Machine! well not that surprised..
Report delsie777 February 19, 2015 10:36 AM GMT
I think he was trying to be funny tt - Chapman asked him 'what are you putting the mockers on?'
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