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splinterboy82
12 Nov 13 22:04
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Date Joined: 30 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 49 | Blogger: splinterboy82's blog
Entered on Sunday (17/11/13) over both 2m & 2m6f....
This beast is the one i'm most excited about this season....Mullins new superstar?
Took 20/1 Neptune - Can see this going off 5/4f after hacking up in Ireland all season prior to March 2014.

Think Moyle Park will end up being Mullins Supreme horse & Briar Hill heading for AB...

No need to wait until March when you can guess in November ;-)
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Report delsie777 February 14, 2015 5:24 PM GMT
I quite like AF actually. Backed him eachway at big prices before pricewise nailed him. Think he's improving all the time, will have conditions to suit and will probably be ridden quietly. That said, I guess I wouldn't want to back him at 16/1
Report timtin February 19, 2015 10:21 AM GMT
its a plane! .. its a rocket! ... no!! he's Nicholls banker Faugheen Laugh... was shocked to hear that on ATR that from all Cheltenham runners his banker is The Machine! well not that surprised..
Report delsie777 February 19, 2015 10:36 AM GMT
I think he was trying to be funny tt - Chapman asked him 'what are you putting the mockers on?'
Report timtin March 2, 2015 9:00 PM GMT
great observation from Steve Mellish on RUK preview http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/33477/champion-hurdle-2015-video-preview: "The sexy thing to say at the moment is that Faugheen hasn't beaten anything so far" referring to bloggers, columnists, etc. looking at this forum the sexy trend continues, apparently it makes you look shrewd when saying it Cool It also makes Timeform, BHA and other handicappers look like complete fools when they say Faugheen has the best form this season Grin

Jezki has the best chance because... well .... he won last year .... so all conditions will be met again to win again.... including a perfect ride from McCoy(or was it BG hmm nvm...) .... if a horse wins one year then surely he'll win it again next year when all previous conditions are met again which are: 1. Get well beat a couple of times in the winter so that everyone will HOPE Spring is your time to bounce, 2. Make big jumping mistakes when the pressure is applied so that everyone will say you're unlucky(oops this also applies to TNO in the Christmas hurdle 2 seasons ago so I'm now confused)

TNO has best chance ... well... because he was runner up to MTOY 2 years ago on boxing day.. and we know MTOY is a complete all time monster who of course got beat over hurdles twice since meeting TNO on boxing day so that looks particulary STRONG form.. and TNO beat the TOP CLASS Vaniteux by 4 lengths this season when giving him 8 LBS WOOOW can he do that to such a fantastic horse like Vaniteux ??? don't think its allowed.... he was also unlucky last CH, surely if a horse is unlucky then the Karma returns the favour and will award him the CH next time.... he also gets the proverbial excuses which makes his form looks even more appealing: 1. He hates heavy ground so forget Haydock runs when he almost got beat by an 150 horse.. 2. he only makes jumping errors and jumps way of to the right in less 50% of his races so guaranteed he won't do anything of that sort in the CH because when running there in the past he didn't made any mistakes so he surely won't make them this time around it would be crazy to think such nonsense... well he's my selection very confident about TNO chances he should be evens and Faugheen who's form beating an 150-160 horses by '__' (fill in with how many digits Walsh wanted to ask him for) is sooo weak in comparison...


....

Seriously now, financially I hope Faugheen wins but in a weird way I wish he loses so Mullins sends him chasing next season as he'll make a great GC horse... and also Mullins already talks about Nichols Canyon about being the next big hope for Champion hurdle (unlike Faugheen which wasn't even talked about until he won at P'town(after winning the Neptune) and even after that Mullins always downplayed him, I mean in almost every interview he talks trash about Faugheen and mentions Arctic Fire and Fly so at least Nichols Canyon(plus Douvan, plus others) gets Mullins respect without winning anything...) so he'll have plenty horses to fill that spot, he won't need Faugheen over hurdles anymore .. but yea look above those two TNO and Jezki fill your mind with great confidence Wink
As for THE FLY respect he's one of the true greats of hurdles scene but don't think he has met a horse of Faugheen's calibre in his career.
Report brassneck March 3, 2015 12:53 AM GMT
but the fly meets faugheen every day,and surely when they are out together for a little trot and Annie is not about they have a race to see who is second best in the stable.Wink
Report maelduin March 3, 2015 10:48 AM GMT
"It also makes Timeform, BHA and other handicappers look like complete fools when they say Faugheen has the best form this season"

The Fly had the best form going in to the last 4 CHs and he managed to only win 2 of them. Nothing Jezki did last year would have told you he would run the fastest CH ever, yet he did. It's all relevant and makes anyone backing Faugheen at these prices look like a mug.


"Seriously now, financially I hope Faugheen wins but in a weird way I wish he loses so Mullins sends him chasing next season as he'll make a great GC horse..."

Ha Ha Ha so you already have an "out" if he losses. Comical stuff.
Report timtin March 3, 2015 11:43 AM GMT
yes it is comical, horses shouldn't be able to lose at the festival, they should all win, especially as they always replicate their best form. More explicitly, I hope Faugheen doesn't turns up with his best form(especially as he's not had a prep run for months) and loses so that Mullins can finally send him over fences.

People were complaining when Faugheen was 9/2 at the start of the season, they then complained when he was 9/4, now 5/4. Don't think though you'd have this price if Faugheen had beaten TNO in the Christmas Hurdle or Fly/Jezki on Irish CH, so anyone backing him at these prices knowing that Faugheen only needs to show this season's form(and maybe his last year P'town form) to win it could look like a value bet in hindsight, if he even improves(doubtful without a prep run) then he's sure to take it easily.
Report alleged22 March 3, 2015 12:49 PM GMT
bookies should start paying out now on this cert LaughSilly
Report trigger3 March 3, 2015 4:22 PM GMT
Almost everyone agrees that the price is much too short and yet the bookies have left this horse largely unchanged at a best priced 5/4. Is it pure cowardice on their behalf because of the hype or does Faugheen really merit being so short given the strength of his rivals? Most people on here are likely talking through their pocket and their opinions will be guided by this. My own take on it is that Faugheen faces his first real test as a 2 mile hurdler and at the price I couldn't justify backing him. There are better examples of much better 5/4 shots practically every day of the week. That said you have to respect the market which in a race as high profile as the CH should ordinarily represent his true chances of winning, with one important caveat. And that is the number of hotpots that Mullins saddles up on day one. If the race was run in isolation I don't think you would see Faugheen so short in the market. I'm fairly sure that if Douvan and UDS for instance win their races preceding the CH then Faugheen may well go off odds on. On the other hand if either or both are beaten I'd expect him to drift in the market to represent a truer price independent of the other races. Anyone hoping for closer to 7/4 on the day (specifically before racing) will be disappointed imo as the bookmakers are frightened of a Mullins bloodbath on day one.
Report maelduin March 3, 2015 6:37 PM GMT
"Almost everyone agrees that the price is much too short and yet the bookies have left this horse largely unchanged at a best priced 5/4. Is it pure cowardice on their behalf because of the hype or does Faugheen really merit being so short given the strength of his rivals?"

The turnover now is pittance compared to the day itself so no point in offering extended prices now. The bookies are quite happy to leave him at 5/4 until the big money comes. I'd be very surprised if you could not get 7/4 with one of the bookies on the day. Definitely lots of 6/4 going to be around. imo.
Report timtin March 3, 2015 9:59 PM GMT
"Faugheen is "spectacular" and "probably better than Istabraq" (which raised some murmurs). 5/4 looking very tempting." https://twitter.com/Timeform1948/status/572843859564228610
Report geoff m March 3, 2015 10:15 PM GMT
anyone who thinks 5/4 is tempting needs their bumps feeling.
When you will get 7/4 plus before the race.
Report brassneck March 3, 2015 10:37 PM GMT
think rich ricci has 4 horses that he thinks can win four big races,and when grouped together can return a tidy sum of money,
the four are douvan,Annie,faugheen,champagne fever,and he also adds djacadam for the Canadian bet,so its not surprising that the books are holding the prices at the moment,because you can be sure the irish at Cheltenham will get stuck into them.
Report timtin March 3, 2015 11:24 PM GMT
Bookies aren't charities and if you think they're so plain stupid to make him back to what he was before the Boxing day you'll be dead wrong. Of course offers of limited stakes(10 quids) you'll see those no doubt but those are irrelevant to them only attract new customers.

5/4 looks decent for what most of his followers seen of him and his competition until now, if he also improves than it will loook like a no brainer afterwards. I have a feeling that most will wait till the morning, the price will be odds on and will back him at even shorter odds than now. You either think he has a bigger winning chance than 5/4, or you don't think he has that many chances and you'll never back him, even if its 2/1 or 9/2 so whats the point of complaining when the lay button has enough liquidity.
Report Steamship March 4, 2015 12:05 AM GMT
I don't think I will be having a bet on the race, but I think Faugheen's price of 5/4 is right.  He realistically has two opponents Jezki and The New One neither have covered themselves in too much glory this season. Hurricane Fly doesn't run to his best here and its possible that Arctic Fire may get a place.

If you are happy to smash into horses at these prices then Faugheen looks as good as it gets
Report brassneck March 4, 2015 12:32 AM GMT
When I started working in a bookies shop many many years ago one of my first jobs was to sweep the floor after racing.
I was amazed to see so many crumpled up losing copies of bets lying on the floor.so I said to my boss "a lot of losing dockets on the floor boss"
And he replied with a grin"yes, and they were all racing certainties three hours ago"Plain
Report geoff m March 4, 2015 9:43 AM GMT
Timtin if you think Faugheen will be odds on, on the morning of the race they you dont understand betting imo.
That will mean The New One and Jetski will need to be pushed out and @ 1/4 odds a place would be a nightmare for the layers.
Annie Power was trading around 11/8 ante post (MUllins certainty winning in hack canter beating nothin of note including Coral Hurdle .Who does that remind you of?)
9/4 on morning of race was available to good money.
I will be amazed if yer canna get 7/4....15/8 on early morning prices to good money.
Report trigger3 March 4, 2015 10:47 AM GMT
I would be amazed if 7/4 or 15/8 is available on the morning of the race for good money. I wouldn't be surprised to see price rushes to restricted stakes or offers to attract new customers, but offering close to 2/1 to good money will not happen imo. If and when Ruby Walsh announces that he will ride Faugheen, the bookies PR reps will have another reason for maintaining the skinny price or even shortening. The only way I can see those prices become available on the day is if one or both of UDS or Douvan get turned over in the preceding races.
Report firstimevisor March 4, 2015 11:17 AM GMT
He's already priced up on the assumption that ruby rides. If ruby opts for the fly, unlikely I know but not impossible, then Faugheen will be closer to 3s
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 4, 2015 12:17 PM GMT
Think in fact i fully expect there to be some surprised faces on here in 6 days time Plain


I fully expect to see at least 7/4 morning of the 10th March at least some where, prob billies, maybe lads but more than likely sid james who sponsor the race and were miles shorter than anyone else all winter! Been saying it since his Xmas hdl win still saying it now.


Them saying he will be odds on dont have a clue about betting and overrounds. For him to even be touching 10/11 the layers would have to make TNO 10/3 min and Jezki a 4-9/2 chance, at 1/4 odds the offices will be crying up and down the country and will shorten tno and jezki up not to mention fly and AF, this will invariably get Faugheen out to a 5/4 sp on a 108-110% overround if 8 run! Another reason why Faugheen will be available at close to 2/1! Best book on oddschecker Tues morning i suspect will be approx 101-102% Wink
Report trigger3 March 4, 2015 12:43 PM GMT
So basically what your saying is that it is due to the fact that there are 8 or more runners as to why Faugheen's price will drift. What if there are less than 8 runners?
Report brassneck March 4, 2015 12:52 PM GMT
Faugheen will drift in price if any of the mullins horses lost in the first two races,but if both win than we will have a different story.
Report cricketnut2 March 4, 2015 1:30 PM GMT
I don't think either of the 1st two will win, but I do fancy Faugheen to win.
Report timtin March 4, 2015 2:18 PM GMT
I'm so clueless that Faugheen price just got hammered evens with most firms and 11/10 with some, only 5/4 with PP who most punters can't place bets with anyways... good luck if you're a trader on CH market, I know you expect to secure a profit but you better get out now... don't worry there's still hope if Ruby will ride Fly you'll have a shot to get a guaranteed profit when Faugheen drifts into 2.6-2.7 but I wouldn't bet on it if I were you there are plenty other markets and if Ruby confirms the ride you'll be on a guaranteed lose as the price will steam into 2.1-2.2, get out when you still can Wink
Report geoff m March 4, 2015 2:33 PM GMT
timtin • March 4, 2015 2:18 PM GMT
I'm so clueless that Faugheen price just got hammered evens with most firms and 11/10 with some, only 5/4 with PP who most punters can't place bets with anyways.

This is classic bookmaker tactics.How do you take more mug money @ the wrong price. Shorten it
Report trigger3 March 4, 2015 2:35 PM GMT
The bookies have now used the declarations to cut the prices further, the confirmation of Ruby Walsh as jockey will give them another excuse to shorten Faugheen. This horse won't be trading much bigger than 5/4 on the day, talk of 7/4-2/1 is off the mark.
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 4, 2015 2:43 PM GMT
I'm coming to the conclusion Faugheen is either a bad win bet or place LAY!

He will either win or come nowhere. Devil
Report delsie777 March 4, 2015 2:45 PM GMT
Have to agree - new custom is one thing, but only to small stakes - getting stuffed by big punters backing a gift horse is another. They are beginning to run scared now the rolling stone is gathering momentum. Haven't heard anyone tipping up anything else for the last few days - except Nigel Twiston Davies. We even have Nicholls and Henderson placing their charity bets on Faugheen now! I think he will win and by Wednesday morning even the biggest TNO fans will be able to spell... Faugheen!
Report geoff m March 4, 2015 2:49 PM GMT
Australia certainty for Derby evens/11/10  ante post in run up to Derby.
9/4 on morning of race to good money.
The high street gang want you in their shops on festival opening day at evens 11/10 anyone with 1/2 a brain wont even get out of bed for that.
But then again..........................................................................
Report timtin March 4, 2015 2:56 PM GMT
"This is classic bookmaker tactics.How do you take more mug money @ the wrong price. Shorten it "

Jesus, first you call me clueless cause I said Faugheen is more likely to shorten than get bigger, now when I'm slightly proven right you you call me mug as I'm for a horse which price is so big because of the circumstances of Mullins keeping him apart from Fly in the Irish scene and TNO being kept apart from the most prestigious hurdle race in the early part of the NH season. If he had met any of those 3 and most likely beat them his price now would really be unbackable. Currently he's decent price because he meets them ALL 3 in the same event so if he's as good as he shown till now then will take this easily.
Report trigger3 March 4, 2015 3:18 PM GMT
The Australia analogy does not mean that Faugheen will do similar. There may be gimmicky promotions on the price to small stakes but I'd be amazed if we see a similar drift. You have stated earlier that the price on Faugheen will get a lot bigger because of the each way terms on the other horses. Now that there are 8 horses confirmed for the race nothing much has changed in price terms, if anything there has been another shortening by a few. Anyone waiting for a bigger price on Faugheen is also taking the chance that there are no no runners (thus reducing the field to 7 or less), no adverse stories about other horses and other unforeseen factors. If you fancy the horse now you could be best taking the 5/4 now NRNB when you can get it.
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 4, 2015 3:55 PM GMT
lol timtin, very funny pal
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 4, 2015 3:58 PM GMT
Ming_the_Merciless 04 Mar 15 14:43 Joined: 22 May 09 | Topic/replies: 2,929 | Blogger: Ming_the_Merciless's blog
I'm coming to the conclusion Faugheen is either a bad win bet or place LAY!

He will either win or come nowhere.



Said this very thing myself a few times over the last couple weeks, got shot down the first time but i think this could well be the case even more so now.



As for the pretenders thinking that the bookies wont throw out some too good to be true offers morning of the festival, the biggest and strongest betting jungles in the world is absolutely clueless about betting and needs to stop!!! Faugheen is sure to be included in at least one of them offers, if he isn't then i will be surprised!!!
Report geoff m March 4, 2015 4:12 PM GMT
When you have the fastest ever Champion Hurdler Jezki(Istabraq eat your heart out) trading @ 5/1 likely to met exactly same conditions as last year with Kitten Rock as a pacemaker and Faugheen trading @11/10 5/4 in a place .
Ask yourself which is likely to shorten and which is likely to drift
If you come down on the side of Faugheen . Good Luck and thanx.
Report Graeme83 March 4, 2015 4:20 PM GMT
Agree geoff. Jezki never gets the credit he deserves, probably because he doesn't always turn up until cheltenham. He ran a very good race last year, but some folk always pick holes in the form.  I'd rather have saw bg on the horse because of how handled the horse last year. If faugheen doesn't win, jezki will.
Report timtin March 4, 2015 4:23 PM GMT
good luck @Geoff, but I have a feeling we're following different sports, horse racing is not about overall times, not over flat and certainly not over jumps. Good luck as well with Jezki he was a good price last year based on his form till then, but now he's too short for what he achieved on form(worse than last year), hopefully he returns to his best on better ground but @ 5/1 its not worth the risk
Report trigger3 March 4, 2015 4:27 PM GMT
Surely your not trying to compare Jezki with Istabraq? Remains to be seen if he is as good as he was last season as he has only run against one horse of note all winter and has yet to win this season. You can pick holes in them all to varying degrees but I don't think 5/1 Jezki is any value no more than 5/4 is about Faugheen.
Report maelduin March 4, 2015 8:03 PM GMT
Listening to Preview Night from Leopardstown on RTE2FM radio right now w/ Ted Walsh, Gordon Elliot, Davy Russell and that guy from Boyles. They all think Faugheens price is crazy and that of all of WPMs runners on Tuesday he's the most likely to get beat. They think Jezki is the best bet at the prices. GL
Report trigger3 March 4, 2015 8:22 PM GMT
Most people seem to think his price is crazy and yet it has held firm at around evens for weeks on end with no sign of drifting. The PR guy from Spoilsports (presumably Blanche) saying it is a crazy price yet representing a firm that is joint worst price on the horse is laughable.
Report maelduin March 4, 2015 8:38 PM GMT
"The PR guy from Spoilsports (presumably Blanche) saying it is a crazy price yet representing a firm that is joint worst price on the horse is laughable."

Yes it was him and no it didn't say anything while they were discussing his "crazy" price. My bad. He did say he would give an enhanced price of 15/1 on the 4 WPM hotpots winning on the Tuesday. Thought Ted was going to have a heart attack. Laugh
Report trigger3 March 4, 2015 9:00 PM GMT
@maelduin Is there a podcast of that show available anywhere?
Report maelduin March 4, 2015 9:29 PM GMT
Not sure. It was on at 7pm today. Definitely worth a listen if you can find it. .
Report timtin March 5, 2015 1:10 PM GMT
"Listening to Preview Night from Leopardstown on RTE2FM radio right now w/ Ted Walsh, Gordon Elliot, Davy Russell and that guy from Boyles. They all think Faugheens price is crazy and that of all of WPMs runners on Tuesday he's the most likely to get beat. They think Jezki is the best bet at the prices. GL"

is this the one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_gp-xUNTCs ? Because the only references to Faugheen price were:

Boyles Guy: "We're going push him out tonight to 5/4" => reality: still evens price as we speak.
Boyles Guy: "Its whether you're a favourite backer and want to take 5/4 Faugheen that's the big question you got to answer"; at the end he again makes the point: "Its your own decision if you want to back a horse at 5/4" => the question is why would a bookie give us advices against backing a horse ?

Ted Walsh: "I think its a better price 5/4 than UDS is at 4/7"

Gordon & Davy: didn't mentioned anything about his price...

And only Davy mentioned Jezki in this context:
- "If the ground comes soft it would increase HF chance, it would decrease Jezki's and TNO's and it wouldn't make any difference to Faugheen"
- "Faugheen jumping mistakes doesn't seem to slow him down but the only worry I'd have is if he'd done it in the middle part of the race too many times that one horse who could exploit that could be Jezki"
Report timtin March 5, 2015 1:35 PM GMT
Then here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5AB9JAXp0w the Boyles guy after offering 15/1 for all 4 to come in on the first day, he again emphasizes that Faugheen is not placed in a lot of trebles and a guy from the audience says to him that Faugheen is the probably the one he fancies the most and Boyles immediately changes the subject and starts to talk highly of Douvan and how Mullins said "he was the best he brought to the festival" while Ted said that they've already seen "the second coming of Christ last week in Alisio Ville" and he doesn't believes in those hypes Laugh

the rest of the panel started to pick off Douvan races with Davy making an excellent point about his shady form which is similar to a 20/1 shot and Liam also made a good point about Lami Serge who ran to very high rating 139 and if he rans to that on Tuesday than Douvan would have to improve a lot similar to what Vautour did last year in around 150+ mark.

Basically they all took a shot at Douvan, except the bookie representative, while they neither mentioned Faugheen price at all.


It takes a lot proof to debunk a single false statement but there you go, thanks @maelduin...
Report gamerawins March 6, 2015 4:00 AM GMT
He will win.
Report buddeliea March 6, 2015 7:13 AM GMT
Would have absolutely loved to have UDS in the CHurdle this season,and last for that matter.
Personally think he's the best 2m hurdler full stop. Don't think any of em would get to him.
Think Mullins and Walsh know it as well.
Report buddeliea March 6, 2015 7:17 AM GMT
Still,injury free and barring accidents,he wins Arkle and any numbe of Champion chases.
Guess that's ok for owners!!
Report shockster March 6, 2015 10:43 AM GMT
We both know they missed the boat last year with UDS.

Faugheen this year to me is not IF but BY HOW FAR.
Report maelduin March 6, 2015 11:13 AM GMT
"It takes a lot proof to debunk a single false statement but there you go, thanks @maelduin..."

Trust me when i tell you this, they ALL think Faugheens price is beyond crazy. You will get all the 6/4 you want come Tuesday and maybe some 7/4. Ridiculous hype. imo.
Report timtin March 6, 2015 11:36 AM GMT
"Faugheen this year to me is not IF but BY HOW FAR."

I think it depends on the tactics of other main contenders, if for example Jezki will follow the pace most likely set by Faugheen, and TNO connections said he'll also won't give too much rope to Faugheen, so if you have these 3 in front, one thing we know from previous attempts of following him(except Ascot when Faugheen set a moderate pace) is that Jezki and/or TNO will pay the price at the end and Faugheen will finish at least 10 lengths clear. The best strategy against him if he leads is to stay off the pace but not too far out and try to catch him in the last furlong or so and even then you'll be lucky to get within couple of lengths, but its your best chance of getting placed which is what Fly is most likely to do.

If Walsh/Townend will change the tactics and ride Faugheen from the back then Jezki's and TNO best chances is to steal the start and hope that they have enough stamina/speed to last up the hill but its a risky tactic as you expose your horse even worse to Faugheen's plenty reserves of stamina and speed so they have to judge it to perfection in order to only get beat by 1-2 lengths or maybe even win if Faugheen jumping lets him down at the last hurdles.
Report timtin March 6, 2015 11:47 AM GMT
In case anyone's wondering why the price is again starting to shorten, its confirmed(Faugheen): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YtO7DLhnHE watch till the end
Report alleged22 March 6, 2015 11:48 AM GMT
ive been reliably informed that the Samaritans will be putting extra call centre staff on duty from 3.25pm onwards, on Tuesday for disappointed faugheen fans Laugh
Report shockster March 6, 2015 11:49 AM GMT
LaughLaugh
Report alleged22 March 6, 2015 11:56 AM GMT
the Samaritans

08457 90 90 90 * (UK)
116 123 (ROI)
Report timtin March 6, 2015 11:57 AM GMT
Laugh

Ive also been informed there's going to be a charity event for Jezki and TNO's backers who went all-in thinking they're guaranteed to get placed Laugh
Report alleged22 March 6, 2015 11:59 AM GMT
I don,t do the draw tim its win or lose here none of that e/w crap Laugh
Report timtin March 6, 2015 12:05 PM GMT
win or lose of course, but unfortunately its ALL IN with some Jezki and TNO punters have put e/w thinking they're going to get their stake back, there was a thread around with twitter basher, he's the main reason I heard the charity will take place Grin
Report timtin March 6, 2015 12:08 PM GMT
oh and @alleged can I call the line if Faugheen disappointingly wins by only 2-3 legnths ?? I'll be terribly disappointed if that happens... to me it would be like getting beat so can I call those lines if that happens? Excited
Report alleged22 March 6, 2015 12:13 PM GMT
im sure they will accommodate you tim Wink
Report SoYouThink March 7, 2015 12:48 PM GMT
Ruby confirmed to ride Faugheen
Report timtin March 7, 2015 12:57 PM GMT
isn't anyone betting with betfair sportsbook or are they that brave still @ 5/4 Grin
Report buddeliea March 7, 2015 1:08 PM GMT
Would not touch 5/4 with a bargepole.
Report shockster March 7, 2015 1:14 PM GMT
A 5/4 winner is nice Budd Happy
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 7, 2015 1:17 PM GMT
A 7/4 one is even better Silly
Report buddeliea March 7, 2015 1:19 PM GMT
Yes mate, but 5/4 aint a price to take if you aint at that confident it will win Shock.
Report shockster March 7, 2015 1:21 PM GMT
Out of all the short ones I prefer Faugheen more than the others.
Report shockster March 7, 2015 1:23 PM GMT
I'm being greedy in this and backed TNO in the without market at 7/4 on here.  Hoping for the old 1-2 Excited
Report trigger3 March 7, 2015 2:21 PM GMT
This horse has shortened from 2.44 to 2.18 in the last day or two probably as Walsh has confirmed he will ride him. Plenty short enough given the fact he is now being fired into the deep end, I'd expect him to go off around 5/4 - 11/8. May even be a bit of 6/4 in bookies promotions around on the morning but stakes probably restricted. Of the short ones he is the one with the most to prove as he is stepping way up in class.
Report splinterboy82 March 10, 2015 3:28 PM GMT
Woooooooshhh.......Wins the CH for many years if he stays fit......an absolute machine!!!!! Only sad thing is I'll never get 20/1 on him for any race ever again!!!!!
Report timtin March 10, 2015 3:44 PM GMT
"Faugheen this year to me is not IF but BY HOW FAR."

I think it depends on the tactics of other main contenders, if for example Jezki will follow the pace most likely set by Faugheen, and TNO connections said he'll also won't give too much rope to Faugheen, so if you have these 3 in front, one thing we know from previous attempts of following him(except Ascot when Faugheen set a moderate pace) is that Jezki and/or TNO will pay the price at the end and Faugheen will finish at least 10 lengths clear. The best strategy against him if he leads is to stay off the pace but not too far out and try to catch him in the last furlong or so and even then you'll be lucky to get within couple of lengths, but its your best chance of getting placed which is what Fly is most likely to do.

If Walsh/Townend will change the tactics and ride Faugheen from the back then Jezki's and TNO best chances is to steal the start and hope that they have enough stamina/speed to last up the hill but its a risky tactic as you expose your horse even worse to Faugheen's plenty reserves of stamina and speed so they have to judge it to perfection in order to only get beat by 1-2 lengths or maybe even win if Faugheen jumping lets him down at the last hurdles.


Faugheen disappointingly wins by only 2-3 legnths ?? I'll be terribly disappointed if that happens

I have to admit I'm disappointed of AF proximity...... but that may have been because Ruby didn't administered any smacks after the last....
Report Steamship March 10, 2015 3:52 PM GMT
It was a great call splinterboy I hope you have won plenty
Report maelduin March 10, 2015 3:56 PM GMT
Well done lads. Hype justified.
Report sj March 10, 2015 7:48 PM GMT
Monster. I remember getting slaughtered on here for suggesting 3 miles is probably to long for him last year and the Neptune was the correct race well he must be some horse to win the Champion off a slow pace and be able to win a top race over 3 miles.
Great day
Report buddeliea March 11, 2015 5:58 AM GMT
Well those of us who were waiting before hailing Faugheen need wait no longer.

Well done to those who have been belivers all along,hope most of you had nice odds for him.

Looking at last years horses its clear hes a lot better,with only 1 horse getting near him and he did not run in the race last year and has improved immensely.

We have a good champion and be interesting to see what challengers come out of the woodwork.
Report timtin March 15, 2015 3:36 AM GMT
what if R. Ricci came up with the idea of sending Faugheen over fences next season until its too late... would Mullins accept to lose his main hope for next year CH? Or would he say yes straight away as the prize money is much bigger for the top Chase races and he recently complained about that.. or does he have enough chasing prospects on his hand that he'll refuse to send Faugheen as well..
Report Harvester March 15, 2015 9:08 AM GMT
They'll definitely keep Faugheen hurdling now, especially as they have plenty of chase options ... Personally I think douvan will aim for arkle.

I wasn't a faugheen believer ahead of the Neptune last year but after that race I got him at 33-1 for this year's churdleLaughLaugh
Report Arklearkle March 15, 2015 11:29 PM GMT
Faugheen will definitely stay hurdling. WM has UDS, Vautour, Djakadam, Don Poli and Douvan among others.
Report Harvester March 16, 2015 8:27 PM GMT
just out of interest, they were talking to Dermot Weld about the possibility of Windsor Park going for the Ascot GC and he is currently about 3rd/4th in the betting... which got me thinking, what would Faugheen (or even UDS or Vautour) do in a Ascot GC..??
Report Harvester March 16, 2015 8:28 PM GMT
just out of interest, they were talking to Dermot Weld about the possibility of Windsor Park going for the Ascot GC and he is currently about 3rd/4th in the betting... which got me thinking, what would Faugheen (or even UDS or Vautour) do in a Ascot GC..??
Report timtin March 16, 2015 8:47 PM GMT
Think the obstacles are rather an inconvenience for Faugheen, only need to look at his bumper to see how impressive he was, Racing Post: "As racecourse debuts go, they don´t get much more impressive than this one. It was extremely easy on the eye and the manner in which he devoured the ground inside the final furlong suggests we´ll still be talking about him this time next year. The three who followed him home were all newcomers, so only time will tell what the form amounts to."

Josses Hill went on 2nd in the Supreme so that piece of form tells us everything about how much Faugheen hates obstacles, thats why Mullins wanted to send him chasing so that he'll start respecting them more so he can jump better. Unfortunately he remained over hurdles and still wants to take them home in almost every race so he won't ever achieve his highest potential if they won't fix the issue, over flat might do better but R. Ricci only loves jumps racing so even though Royal Ascot is the biggest horse racing stage of the world he'll never send his horses there.
Report Harvester March 16, 2015 9:54 PM GMT
"Royal Ascot is the biggest horse racing stage of the world"

mmm... Cheltenham for me! ... and i've never heard of the Ascot Roar either!
Report cufcno1 March 16, 2015 9:59 PM GMT
They don't need to spoil the horse by sending it flat racing,this horse could be as good as istabraq,maybe 1 more run then put away until the autumn,it will only get better jumping hurdles and will take a monster to beat him next year !
Report Arklearkle March 16, 2015 10:13 PM GMT
No chance of going flat - flat racing would ruin him - it would only gizz him up.

Royal Ascot is carp. When do you get the drama we experienced last week. In ten years time people will be still asking where were you when Annie fluffed her lines. Whats the most dramatic thing that ever happens on the flat - probably something getting left in the stalls at Chelmsford city. Yuk.
Report Can't Catch Me March 16, 2015 10:37 PM GMT
Great performance obviously, but I thought he looked absolutely knocked after the race and on the walk in to the winners enclosure. Looked like he had had a very hard race to me, and would be wary of backing him next time.

Can't see them doing it, but would be delighted to see him put his feet up from here and be fresh for next season.
Report timtin March 16, 2015 10:38 PM GMT
yep I've meant Ascot for flat, almost all racing countries want to win there. Jumps racing is driven by passion and can't ever be matched by flat which is driven by money with the recent example of their jockeys title..
Report CVByrne March 16, 2015 10:50 PM GMT
He got a cut in the race CCM, could have had an effect.

Ruby gave him a great ride btw. He set a slow/steady pace for the first half and then kicked on to sprint finish. He knew Fly and Jezki couldn't beat him if he did that, and was confident Faugheen was quicker than TNO. I'm amazed JP didn't run a pace maker.
Report Harvester March 16, 2015 10:54 PM GMT
there's a strong chance Faugheen could be largely unopposed next season, especially if Douvan goes chasing (as i think he will)...

CV, do you think PAC could serve it up to him..??
Report wellchief March 16, 2015 10:59 PM GMT
I personally can only see the Triumph ones being a danger to Faugheen next year, and possibly MTOY if back and fit, and staying over hurdles.

Windsor Park looks a stayer to me, as does Vyta Du Roc, and Nichols Canyon could well go the World Hurdle route.  I wouldn't take much from the Supreme for next year's Champion Hurdle.

The big danger could be Annie Power, but.......I'll leave that debate for another day!!!!
Report Can't Catch Me March 16, 2015 11:01 PM GMT
I was surprised they just let Ruby dictate the pace CV. It's his biggest asset as a jockey IMO. I appreciate it's easier when you're on the best horse, but he made the win on Faugheen and UDS look slightly easier than they actually were IMO.

Did it again on Vautour, but he was simply in a different league anyway.
Report Can't Catch Me March 16, 2015 11:03 PM GMT
I'd possibly give a mention to l'Ami Serge as well WC. Think we haven't seen the best of him by a long way, and he didn't get the best of runs in the Supreme. Think he could improve and improve and at least be a contender. If NJH can get the yard back to its brilliant best.

Agee it's almost impossible to look past Faugheen at this stage though.
Report Paterson92 March 16, 2015 11:07 PM GMT
I think it's clear to see that Faugheen is always going to attract criticism. Firstly, it was that he hadn't beaten anything and had only beaten trees. Now here he is a Champion Hurdle winner and it was gifted to him after Ruby was allowed to dictate the pace. Have a day off, he's a machine and a very profitable one at that! I wonder if Nigel Twiston Davies has tried renaming his horse to "The Nearly One" yet? Shame.
Report CVByrne March 16, 2015 11:08 PM GMT
Faugheen, Arctic Fire, Peace and Co, Hargam. It's between those imv. Top Notch would find likely decent ground on the old Course too sharp.
Report Arklearkle March 16, 2015 11:13 PM GMT
Cant Catch I did not see him up closely on the way back in but he did a circuit and a half of the parade ring afterwards and the lad had difficulty holding him the whole way around.

I believe he would have would won the race irrespective of the pace set.
Report CVByrne March 16, 2015 11:14 PM GMT
I agree CCM, they let Ruby have the run of the race and were not going to really have a great chance if they did that. It was a bit complacent by his rivals. NTD is so full of sh1t I'm not surprised he didn't worry about tactics he thought his horse was a world beater. But JP knows racing and he should have sacraficed Kitten Rock or put in a pace maker.

Un De Sceaux won with a lot more in hand than people think. Mullins has managed to train the horse to settle better now as he has a big turn of foot he doesn't need to burn them off, just set a good gallop and quicken. Which he did. He has utterly no rivals for the Champion Chase.

Douvan is 100% going for the Arkle next season.
Report Paterson92 March 16, 2015 11:38 PM GMT
Totally agree about Douvan going the Arkle next season! The only reason Vautour wasn't in the Arkle this year was down to UDS. There's no UDS lurking about this year. Realistically the only other option for Douvan would be Champion Hurdle but let's face it, Faugheen will be back to defend his title!
Report timtin March 17, 2015 12:05 AM GMT
It baffles me how the commentators and others after the race said that they made it easier for Ruby to beat them, while they ignored the fact that he was riding a 3 mile point to pointer. One who knows his racing would say they made it harder for Faugheen to beat them or they maximized their chances because a horse with his profile would normally get outpaced by the top 2 milers with a speedy finish in them. Of course Faugheen as most know from his Ascot reappearance, has a devastating turn of foot as well but the others counted on the fact that their horses will be alot faster at the end, look what NTD said just before the race:"Faugheen looks a grinder, and our horse has the best turn of foot" which is probably what JP thought of Faugheen as well and they hoped they'll catch him right before 3 out which is what McCoy tried but couldn't and instead hindered his own chances in doing so, same with TNO.
Report CVByrne March 17, 2015 12:15 AM GMT
Calling Faugheen a grinder, NTD basically decided he wasn't going to pay attention to anyone elses horses and just go on spounting utter nonsense about how his own horses are absolute world beaters. It was clear from Kempton that Faugheen has a turn of foot, while Ruby has a superb record in making the running on horses. So to give him the run of the race where he could ride the tactics he wanted was a bad decision by JP imv.
Report timtin March 17, 2015 12:37 AM GMT
If we go back in past without knowing the outcome then their line of thinking was correct, in that they thought Faugheen needs further and over 2 miles he needs a strong gallop to see him at his best(which was consequently confirmed by Timeform as he only posted 170+ as opposed to 171+ on Boxing day when the pace was very strong) but doesn't have a powerfull turn of foot like their horses and they knew he was a frontrunner in other races and that its their best chance of catching him late on.

So IMHO they did everything right as you'll never see Arctic Fire finish so close to Faugheen in a strongly run race, it only happened because Faugheen had his first battle with Jezki from 3 out, then used another pack of energy to recover the lost momentum after he blundered 2 out, while Ruby also admitted today that he "only rode Faugheen out to the line, I didn't really get stuck in" and that can be seen as he didn't gave him any smacks in the last 200 yards. Their best chance was catching him for the turn of foot which was what the other jockeys tried to do but because they failed everyone started to say in hindsight that he got it easy out in front. They just need more time to sink in that: if the other jockeys had given Faugheen a stronger pace he would've beat them even further and produce a higher rating than what he achieved on the day.
Report duffy March 17, 2015 6:01 AM GMT
It was fascinating how Walsh rode Faugheen but I also think it gives hope to his challengers next year because I think the tactics perhaps show the concern that they themselves had about his jumping.

As timtin says above, on the face of it the tactics should have made it harder for a horse that stays 3 miles to a win a CH when having to rely on his pace at the end of the race, but I think that prospect was still less of a worry than making him go faster through the race as the concern over his jumping was too great.

Now, if we actually look what happened during the race it actually bears this concern out as through the early and middle parts of the race with no pressure applied to Faugheen he jumped ok but when they got to the business end of the race at the 3rd last when Walsh first starts to ask him he makes a slight mistake and then at the 2nd last when jexki is right upsides him and they are really motoring he makes another worse mistake, however, as he's such a good horse and as he hadn't suffered earlier on in the race he was able to recover and get away from them and win.

On reflection it is reasonable to think that the unusual tactics were borne out of a concern about his jumping and the evidence from the race itself showed that when asked to race properly with horses pressuring him there is a flaw present.

In next years race I would be amazed if there isn't something forcing the pace hard from the word go putting extra pressure on him at each and every flight.
Report cufcno1 March 17, 2015 8:08 AM GMT
The race could have been run in any shape or form and the result would have been the same,an easy win,ccm,I got right beside the horse last year after they came out of the winners circle into the yard and he looked absolutely shagged !
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