Cheltenham Festival

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12 Nov 13 23:04
Date Joined: 30 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 14,454 | Blogger: splinterboy82's blog
Entered on Sunday (17/11/13) over both 2m & 2m6f....
This beast is the one i'm most excited about this season....Mullins new superstar?
Took 20/1 Neptune - Can see this going off 5/4f after hacking up in Ireland all season prior to March 2014.

Think Moyle Park will end up being Mullins Supreme horse & Briar Hill heading for AB...

No need to wait until March when you can guess in November ;-)
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Report timtin January 24, 2016 4:16 PM GMT
Was 6th spot trending on Twitter in the last hour, now 7th spot. Not his usual 1st but horses rarely get into general discussions over there.

@duffy I've been describing that before CH win(proven right when McCoy said it was mistake attacking him so early) and also few posts above when talking about NC. Its about time people start to accept it Happy
Report trigger3 January 24, 2016 4:23 PM GMT
Where does he sit among the great hurdles? For me he was already better than Hurricane Fly before today and if he wins the CH again this year he is capable of elevating himself up among Istabraq and some of the other greats that won multiple CHs. Visually his cruising speed is massive and he simply burns off other horses often leaving permanent scars if they try and stay with him.
Report Mooono January 24, 2016 4:58 PM GMT
Makes you wonder how many mars bars Willie fed Faugheeen before the Morgiana hurdle, disgusting!
Report Autocue January 24, 2016 5:07 PM GMT
Marvellous performance today but again Ruby was given a soft lead. Presumably the other stable jockeys were riding to instructions. The only chink in Faugheen's armour is his jumping (took the last on all fours). I doubt anyone will be brave enough to try and put it under pressure at Cheltenham. I suppose Peace & Co might for half a lap regardless of what his jockey wants him to do Grin
Report timtin January 24, 2016 5:51 PM GMT

Jan 24, 2016 -- 10:23AM, trigger3 wrote:

Where does he sit among the great hurdles? For me he was already better than Hurricane Fly before today and if he wins the CH again this year he is capable of elevating himself up among Istabraq and some of the other greats that won multiple CHs. Visually his cruising speed is massive and he simply burns off other horses often leaving permanent scars if they try and stay with him.

I've defended Istabraq form so many times but Faugheen's better, and more talented as well, a pointer who won a now G2 race over 3 miles to have the pace to achieve so much over the minimum trip is speechless. He was designed for GC this horse, not for CH and yet he defies his pedigree and puts up 180+ performance over 2 miles with Ruby stopping him in the last 100 yards. All periods with their champions though and Faugheen needs to continue his winning run... until his first race next season Laugh

Report buddeliea January 24, 2016 5:55 PM GMT
Don't let's have another debate that can't be proven either way,it' always involves needless criticism of great horses.
Let's just enjoy Faugheen.
Report timtin January 26, 2016 10:43 AM GMT
Its pointless @budd but from the RPR ratings point of view Istabraq only has 2 performances that are rated higher than Faugheen, one was in the Punchestown CH beating a G2 horse Decoupage by 3 lengths giving him 5 pounds, and the other was in a `99 Tipperary race beating Limestone Lad by 7 lengths who burned himself out trying to make all from the front on a muddiest mud ground.

All handicappers have taken a hell of a conservative view on Sunday run but that was the best 2 mile performance I've seen and don't think any former champion hurdlers would've better it. Remember Walsh could've forced Faugheen to go even further in the last half furlong but never asked him any serious questions.
Report Autocue January 26, 2016 10:58 AM GMT
You have to take account of the opposition. How many championship races have Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire won in open company?
Report timtin January 26, 2016 11:30 AM GMT
there's only 4 championship races in the calendar, only 1 over 2 miles hurdles. AF would've been champion by 5 lengths from 2 former champions HF and Jezki last year without Faugheen. What is certain is that both are proper G1 horses.
Report Autocue January 26, 2016 5:38 PM GMT
That's a very Anglocentric response.
Report timtin January 26, 2016 6:00 PM GMT
Thats where the best horses meet, its the of "Royal Ascot of jump racing" as a newspaper in the 1910s described it, its where Ireland gain momentum over the decades and started to come over and conquer England, its where France AQPS horses used to come over and compete(Le Paillon was even second in the CH before winning the Arc de Triomphe the same year) before they began selling to Irish or English owners most of their quality jump horses in recent times. Its the world cup of football and its where Arctic Fire showed he's a G1 horse in the main championship event of 2 mile hurdles of the season. AF then confirmed his G1 quality at Aintree when travelling all over Jezki before falling at the last. NC won all the important novice races outside of Cheltenham and he beat IT in the Leop'town Ryanair Hurdle last month, who in turn IT won the England's G1 Fighting Fifth, therefore NC is also a proper G1 horse even though he didn't win a race at the festival. I can't be anglocentric by defending NC or IT race records outside of the festival, or Faugheen (IRE) for that matter, can I?
Report SoYouThink January 27, 2016 10:29 AM GMT
I see Faugheen received an OR of 176 from the Irish handicapper. Do people think he'll improve on that again in the Champion Hurdle? Personally I think he ran his Champion Hurdle last Sunday and it's more likely he'll to run to something like low 170s in March (faster ground, bigger field, contested lead - all these things considered I think conditions will be that little bit less favourable). Not that there's anything to beat him. My Tent or Yours and Arctic Fire are the only ones close to him on the figures. I think if you're like me and you like to oppose such short-priced favourites, My Tent or Yours is the obvious one. It would certainly make the race exciting if you could tell after a furlong or two that he had settled.
Report timtin January 27, 2016 11:05 AM GMT
I think P&C has an entry this Saturday and he may reach bigger ratings than what MTOY will be capable after being sidelined for almost 2 years. As for Faugheen he's improving with every run and that 176 is highly conservative view, beating an 166 animal, admittedly not at his best by 15 lengths, with a further 13 lengths back to an 160 one, again not at his best, but eased off and not extended would be a crime if Faugheen would run in handicaps. I think Phil Smith of BHA would take a fairer view on that performance because he's not afraid of being ridiculed by Istabraq legions. I hope Top Notch would be up there and give P&C and MTOY the chance of settling and give Faugheen th chance to replicate or improve last Sunday performance.
Report duffy January 27, 2016 11:38 AM GMT
If I knew MTOY's had learned to settle I'd be backing him as a credible opponent to Faugheen, however I read a quote somewhere a few weeks back where Hendo hinted that he was still very keen, in that case he'll pull his chance away as even Faugheen won't set a strong enough pace early on for him.
Report SoYouThink January 27, 2016 12:15 PM GMT
It certainly is in Henderson's interests to have a fast pace and also hopefully something gives Faugheen a bit more hassle for the lead, if only for the first mile. It's stating the obvious that it's hard to see Faugheen getting beat but hopefully they go out and try and race him for as long as they can rather than letting Ruby have it his own way. Also on that point, I often wonder if a lot of these young jockeys are intimidated by Ruby. Bar Geraghty, I'd nearly say he'd have everyone else half-afraid to make life awkward for him.
Report duffy January 27, 2016 1:29 PM GMT
good point that one, he deffo comes across as being an abrasive type character, no surprise that many in the weighing room are probably intimidated by him.
Report FOYLESWAR January 27, 2016 1:34 PM GMT
I said something similar regarding the intimimidation factor on the un de scaux thread
Report impossible123 January 27, 2016 2:25 PM GMT
Just give MTOY a few doses of Kalms before the race - it gives humans the desired effect!
Report wellchief January 27, 2016 5:13 PM GMT
The tactics of the Champion Hurdle running will be fascinating.  I think barring an injury or a fall, it's very hard seeing Faugheen getting beat, but it's how the others run that interests me.

If some go off with the intention of trying to beat Faugheen (ie Nicholls Canyon the other day) then they'll probably be cooked turning for home, and could easily be unplaced.

However, if they go off, and kind of accept that they can't live with Faugheen, there could be a brilliant race in behind.  Arctic Fire's run the other day was a lot more of a patient ride, and the jockey didn't really go after him, but he was there to mop up the pieces after Nichols Canyon had burned himself out.

Therefore, there may be a strange placing or two, because if P&C, MTOY, Nichols Canyon etc go for the win and take Faugheen on, it could easily be one of the forgotten ones (ie The New One, Identity Thief) who could pick up the places going past beaten horses up the run in.
Report duffy January 27, 2016 5:30 PM GMT
You could easily see Top Notch being the sacrificial lamb for P&C with MTOY's being an added beneficiary, not sure how long he'll stick with Faugheen but could mess him up a bit, however if P&C pulls like he did the other day he might end up having to be let loose and that'll help MTOY's too.

That was really strange how P&C pulled like that the other day, it was as bad as I've seen in a long long time.
Report duffy January 27, 2016 5:34 PM GMT
The crying shame and an unfulfilled talent is MTOY's because as much as he pulls, he still finishes his race off pretty well considering, if he had settled he'd have already been a supreme and CH winner IMO, looking forward to seeing him back, hopefully he gets there.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 15, 2016 1:53 PM GMT
Dunno if this is news, or someones just made a fairly sizeable mistake with the lay button but, he's just been matched at 1.98 Shocked
Report Desmond Orchard February 15, 2016 2:02 PM GMT
There's next to nowt waiting to back him, but not looked at the market for a while, that could be the usual state of affairs.....
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 15, 2016 2:03 PM GMT
Nope, it's been one of the stronger ones in the market with plenty backing him and laying him for weeks now. Especially after peace n co got beat last time he hardened even further.
Report Desmond Orchard February 15, 2016 2:10 PM GMT
Somebody just had a decent bit on Arctic Fire taking all the 12.5 too. Probably nowt in it though.
Report mincer11 February 15, 2016 6:39 PM GMT
Big rumours about him this evening, and theres rarely smoke without fire.
Report stevo1 February 16, 2016 12:04 AM GMT
Rumours from who? This happens every Festival im afraid.
Report Quevega06 February 16, 2016 12:54 AM GMT
Bookmaker on oddschecker, net bet or something went 7/4 from 7/1 on Artic Fire for the champion
Report Quevega06 February 16, 2016 1:00 AM GMT
Must be reading the betfair forum Happy
Report stevo1 February 16, 2016 1:29 AM GMT
Most probably took a tenner on it,never heard of them?
Report mincer11 February 17, 2016 1:36 PM GMT
Now stevo1 , them rumours are no longer rumours.
Report Desmond Orchard February 17, 2016 1:36 PM GMT
No smoke indeed.
Terrible shame for the race of course
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 17, 2016 2:04 PM GMT
Def not smoke, im on these markets like a fly is on **** and i spotted the ripples as early as 2 days ago

SEATHESTARS....NO1 15 Feb 16 13:53 Joined: 04 Oct 09 | Topic/replies: 3,758 | Blogger: SEATHESTARS....NO1's blog
Dunno if this is news, or someones just made a fairly sizeable mistake with the lay button but, he's just been matched at 1.98 Shocked

No smoke without fire indeed, didn't back him apart from a few multis which were nrnb anyways and he coming out makes my book look mighty but have to feel sorry for anyone whom had him as their banker of the entire meeting and who was antepost
Report Satrus_Froot February 17, 2016 2:07 PM GMT
At least it's not a massively serious injury. 9 weeks rest so will be back raring to go ready for next season (fingers crossed).
Report Desmond Orchard February 17, 2016 2:29 PM GMT
It was a good spot STS, very well done. Disappointing that it took 48hrs to be in the public domain though.
While we were talking I put a little lay up to bridge that gap, but it wasn't even nibbled at so after an hour I took it down and followed the money by having a bit on Arctic Fire instead at 11.5.
I don't really like the horse for the race though and so will trade out for a free bet when the market re-opens.
Not too sure what wins it now, I couldn't have AP after her prep and is NC quick enough? Could fall to an outsider.
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 2:30 PM GMT
Step forward The New One....youll have have a better chance lad.
Report Desmond Orchard February 17, 2016 2:39 PM GMT
If TNO wins Howdi, there will be no better demonstration of the overall weakness of this generation of 2m hurdlers.
Now, MTOY, I could get behind that one.
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 2:44 PM GMT
I agree pal but lets be honest its a champ hurdle in name only, this year. The shortest price fav ever to miss a race in my 25 years of following the sport
Report jasey February 17, 2016 2:45 PM GMT
Annie Power will fill the void left by the machine
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 2:47 PM GMT
Douvan currently in talks with Captain Mullins about going for the double. Plain
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 2:51 PM GMT
For what its worth I think ARTIC FIRE should be fav and I think he'll win
Report simdog84 February 17, 2016 2:53 PM GMT
providing there's pace in the race, could go a bit of a crawl with no machine.
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 2:54 PM GMT
Alan King if you are reading this.....Have a good think pal young Yarnworth could be worth an entry (as could Min) Cool and before I get lambased...remember Coneygree
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 2:54 PM GMT
* lambasted
Report shockster February 17, 2016 2:55 PM GMT
Coneygree wasn't supplemented he was entered.
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 2:58 PM GMT
piss off back to twitter :)
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 2:58 PM GMT
Yes but my point they had bollox to run
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 2:58 PM GMT
Two much dodging match ups in recent years lets reverse the trend #growapair
Report shockster February 17, 2016 3:00 PM GMT
No.  Totally disagree, they should've entered her. They didn't so hard luck in my book.  However my book won't get read.Sad
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 3:01 PM GMT
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 3:02 PM GMT
Im not disagreeing shocky just saying we know the rules - now they should think about an entry or two
Report gnashersblackpool February 17, 2016 3:25 PM GMT
chappers bigger up yanworth getting an entry.
Report shockster February 17, 2016 3:28 PM GMT
Yanworth to the Champion would royally stuff me too.  I feel sickTongue Out
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 3:34 PM GMT
Report Desmond Orchard February 17, 2016 3:39 PM GMT
FFS, noooooo. Not Yanworth.
After the horror show of Ar Mad getting pulled, I don't think I could recover from Yanworth getting pulled from the Neptune.
It's my own fault, I smugly stated around a week ago that so far I had been unaffected by any major upheavals. Despite touching wood and crossing fingers, I should've kept schtum Cry
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 3:43 PM GMT
Mr King currently in with the owners #standby
Report ReaseHeath February 17, 2016 3:44 PM GMT
I know he ran Binocular in Supreme as 4yo but I don't think this is really JPM's MO - he has MTOY and, to a lesser extent, Hargam in the Champion Hurdle with enhanced chances and he soon nipped the idea of More Of That going for the Gold Cup in the bud.

'Course, if MTOY flops on Sat...Shocked
Report Howdi February 17, 2016 3:45 PM GMT
For once we are faced with bizzare situation that Champ hurdle could be weakest of all of 'em. Now who fancies a go?
Report Desmond Orchard February 17, 2016 3:45 PM GMT
JP has MTOY, I'm hoping that's reason enough not to run.
Yanworth not yet added to the betfair market and AP is, although not entered. I'm hopeful Kingy and JP see sense on this one - what's the rush?
Report impossible123 February 17, 2016 4:36 PM GMT
Another one bites the dust! How many more 'good things' before race day?
Report simdog84 February 17, 2016 5:00 PM GMT
Got to be mad to run Yanworth in this years champion, he's a chaser all over for starters who looks like a strong stayer! If they thought he was better over 2 miles theey woul be running him in the supreme not the Neptune surely!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 17, 2016 5:01 PM GMT
impossible123 17 Feb 16 16:36 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 335 | Blogger: impossible123's blog

Another one bites the dust! How many more 'good things' before race day?

Douvan please Devil
Report delsie777 February 17, 2016 5:09 PM GMT
Yeah mate that's right - we don't want any class at Cheltenham do we? FFS forget your pockets and think about the quality of the racing
Report RBoyd86 February 17, 2016 5:10 PM GMT
WOW just got in and SEEN this! I feel gutted and I'm not on ante post or anything, absolute sickener for those that are.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 17, 2016 5:10 PM GMT
Laugh Feck that am in it to win money not lose it jeez Crazy
Report impossible123 February 17, 2016 5:14 PM GMT
Douvan is already a 'non-runner' in my book because of Faugheen; if anything untoward happens to either of these three ie Min, Nmh and Dc, I'm doomed, the Festival is over!
Report impossible123 February 17, 2016 5:28 PM GMT

Your wish could materialise if Douvan (same ownership as Faugheen) is rerouted to the CH - I believe Douvan was entered in case Faugheen cannot run, and now Faugheen is definitely out Douvan could be supplemented; if so, mayhem in the Arkle ensures.
Report mincer11 February 17, 2016 5:35 PM GMT
What a shower of headbangers on here, rerouting Yanworth, Min and now Douvan, the only one ye havent rerouted at this stage is frankel.
Report Arklearkle February 17, 2016 5:42 PM GMT
Dont always agree with you Mince but have to go along with you here. They probably would have to geld Frankel first. Although the procedure would'nt be lost on a few here - it might bring them back to their senses.
Report shockster February 17, 2016 5:52 PM GMT
Frankel is allowed to run as no restrictions on entries. Has Mr Abdullah been informed.
Report shockster February 17, 2016 5:52 PM GMT
Entires. Ffs
Report Arklearkle February 17, 2016 5:55 PM GMT
I wasnt thinking of the rules on entires Shockster.
Report timtin February 18, 2016 12:42 AM GMT
๏̯͡๏ ̃๏̯̃๏ ๏̯̃๏
Report Desmond Orchard February 18, 2016 10:40 AM GMT
Might just lift the mood....
Report Mooono February 19, 2016 4:42 PM GMT
Stanley James are trying to lighten the mood to! Pricing him up at evens to win the 2017 champion
Hurdle! Rancid c**ts
Report timtin March 13, 2016 11:32 PM GMT
His owner is clueless.. Chapman finally found the balls to tell him that Faugheen should go chasing and aim for the GC due to his background and loads of stamina and RR dismissed it because Faugheen didn't jumped the hurdles swiftly.. so he'll stay over that discipline Crazy ( the pearl of wisdom: ).. didn't Mullins told him enough times that F doesn't respects the hurdles and putting him over fences makes more sense, he already jumped them in his P2P.. clueless RR I don't know why they bother interviewing him, the man does what Mullins tells him anyway..

speaking of which, if he doesn't win the GC even this year I wonder will he realize his best chance is sending Faugheen chasing or will he let him do the same pony tricks over the same distance over and over again because its easier or will he want to take the hard route and find out if he can win a GC and try to do the double like his father with Dawn Run.. I wonder..
Report ACStafford March 13, 2016 11:44 PM GMT
Getting a bit late in the day for that. No chance of him ever jumping a fence competitively now.
Report timtin March 15, 2016 1:39 PM GMT
You've just seen Faugheen biggest challenger to date. Glad we've got it and hopefully we'll see both in the CH next year!
Report timtin April 15, 2016 10:29 AM BST
Mullins says 'Big Possibility' for Faugheen or Annie going GC route: Given that AP is below top class over 3 miles, it makes sense for them to send Faugheen instead, that if he gets back well from injury.
Report impossible123 April 15, 2016 11:04 AM BST
I'd take with a big pinch of salt, why? Faugheen has never jumped a fence in public - presently injured - and Annie Power is just too fragile to begin over fences; I believe Vautour would have more chance of running in the Punchestown Gold Cup later this month and the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup than either Faugheen or Annie Power going the GC route.
Report Paterson92 April 15, 2016 8:17 PM BST
I thought it was public knowledge that Faugheen had back trouble and was also given as a possible explanation for his awkward jumping at times.
Report Paterson92 April 15, 2016 8:19 PM BST
Was also led to believe that contributed to Vautour being sent over fences instead of him after their novice hurdle wins at the festival in 2014.
Report Paterson92 April 15, 2016 8:21 PM BST
Specifically remember Patrick Mullins mentioning this on a podcast a while back.
Report timtin April 15, 2016 10:15 PM BST
when a horse has back problems it doesn't matter what he jumps, they will be inconvenienced by the hurdles just as much. I imagine Mullins knows best Faugheen conditions and when he says 'he's a good jumper' and there's a 'big possibility' I think he would mention the supposed back problems. I'm not sure if these weren't invented by RR so he can have an excuse for keeping his horses separated when some interviewers asked about F over fences, namely Matt Chapman in early October last year and the presenter at the Irish awards in December. What excuse will he find now with Annie? Its in his best interest to send Faugheen chasing and as soon as he realizes and tells Mullins this summer the better for his chances to win a CH and GC at next years festival. Otherwise avoiding a clash with AP means he'll send him for the World Hurdle which would be a shame. Decisions decisions... Grin
Report trigger3 April 16, 2016 9:52 PM BST
In the last 2 years Mullins has began to send a lot of his best horses down the chasing route, it makes sense given his lack of success with chasers relative to hurdlers. I'd take his comments with a pinch of salt as he perversely likes to string the public along on occasions. Problem is that both horses are probably at or will be getting past their peak and would likely have to go straight into open company in their novice season for it to be of any benefit. I'd love to see Faugheen over fences but I can't see it happening.
Report timtin April 16, 2016 11:56 PM BST
the back problems and past their peaks issues are as influential over hurdles, so given that Faugheen jumped fences before and he tackled staying trips before, the only thing that'll matter if he's capable of going against one of the best staying chaser from at least the last decade in Don Cossack. Vautour was supposed to be going that route 2 years ago and he hasn't even tackled it, its time for the big gun to take over if Mullins wants to have a chance of winning a GC until he's retiring :) The prospect of seeing the best horses around from their disciplines and meet is making me take all of his words with no salt at all so with a bit of imagination we might see it happen who knows.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 18, 2017 8:28 PM BST
Trainer Willie Mullins reiterated his desire to run Faugheen in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown in November. The 2015 champion hurdler has been absent since January 2016, but the brilliant nine-year-old is likely to return to the fray this autumn.
Mullins told the Irish Times: "It will probably be the Morgiana. "That's the point we're aiming to start him off in. "We had him fairly fit before he went out so I think he will be fairly forward by the time the Morgiana comes around."

Faugheen has won seven Grade Ones in a dazzling career, but a stress fracture has left him sidelined for 21 months.
His one defeat under Mullins' tutelage came in the 2015 Morgiana Hurdle, when he was defeated half a length by stablemate Nichols Canyon
Report Arklearkle November 28, 2017 9:45 PM GMT
It looks like he's very much back
Report impossible123 January 9, 2018 3:01 PM GMT
He could be running in the Irish Champion Hurdle on Feb 3rd, according to Mullins. If so, a possible chance of getting money lost  perhaps.
Report buddeliea February 4, 2018 9:34 AM GMT
No longer has the level required.
Now what?
Report buddeliea February 4, 2018 9:39 AM GMT
Prediction - Runs in the Champion Hurdle and immediately after,Retired.
Report geoff m February 5, 2018 8:32 AM GMT
Istabraq job??
Report firstimevisor February 5, 2018 3:26 PM GMT
Its way too premature to write off Faugheen. By any other horse's standards that run on Saturday was decent enough, and may well have got him placed in a Champion Hurdle.
Fair enough, by his own standards it was a poor run and nothing like what he showed us in November when he looked every bit as classy as in his pre-injury days.
It could well be that he had picked up a virus of sorts and just might be coming back to himself again now. Five weeks is a long time in racing and I wouldn't be in the least surprised if they got him back near his best by then.
Report buddeliea February 5, 2018 3:59 PM GMT
Just cannot see it happening.

Hope you are right though.
Report HaylingBilly February 5, 2018 4:38 PM GMT
I have written him off as a viable betting proposition. Couldn't think about putting money on him after last two runs. Way too many unknowns and negatives. Would love to see him have one more day in the sunshine but cant see it happening and definitely would not put my money on it. In my opinion Buveur D'Air is the real deal nowadays and Faugheen at 10 after nearly two years off the track and two poor runs is no match for him. If he gets to Cheltenham he is running for a place at best. My hard nosed non sentimental side says he runs at Cheltenham, gets pulled up and retires. I hope I am wrong. I hope he runs well, takes a place and goes out on his shield and retires.
Report wellchief February 6, 2018 8:18 PM GMT
Agree with FTV here.

Yes, getting beat by a 3 miler was a disappointment, and do I think he'll win the Champion Hurdle - probably note, but I think he is still a long way clear of the rest behind Beveur D'Air - 7/1 nrnb is a fair price imo.

If you look at the betting he has Melon covered, and by association, MTOY.  Looks like Yorkhill, Apples Jade and Min won't run here, as The New One won't, and he has him covered too anyway.

You're then getting down to the Chtibello's of this world and surely a 50% Faugheen can have him.  Wicklow Brave has ability, but is quirky, ran poorly on the flat and then poor in Australia.

I think 7/1 nrnb is ok, just in case anything does happen to Beveur.
Report BigField February 6, 2018 8:42 PM GMT
wellchief I wouldn't want to put you off a confident selection - just a warning I wouldn't be confident myself that Faugheen has the beating of Melon, quite clear Melon wasn't 100% the other day so couldn't write that one off.
Report BigField February 6, 2018 8:43 PM GMT
having said that, as always my opinions are based on no factual or inside information whatsoever, purely my own guesswork and speculation - so bet on what you want :)
Report wellchief February 6, 2018 8:53 PM GMT
Very true re Melon lat time out Bigfield; just not really convinced of him anyway.  Last year's Supreme looks nothing special this year with the likes of Melon losing 3 races since, River Wylde and Ballyandy not looking world beaters over fences etc.

His form this year isn't much - the race was there for him at Cheltenham and couldn't beat MTOY or The New One - The New One only scraping home against Chtibello since - the 20/1 about Melon seems about right to me.

He might prove me wrong but I fear he'll be an excuses horse, where people have one after every run.
Report BigField February 6, 2018 9:15 PM GMT
yep very true about the Supreme form mate, just because it's the supreme doesn't mean the horse(s) will come on to be world beaters a season later.

if he doesn't prove good enough at cheltenham then there can't be excuses (though like you said people always find them when they want to - horse too keen, horse taken too wide, made a couple of blunders, took too keen a hold, dropped too far out etc etc). My thoughts regarding the horse this year have been that he hasn't been 100% throughout and they've been waiting for Cheltenham for him to be fully wound up, but thinking about what you've stated that would go against what Mullins usually does with his potential championship horses the year after their novice campaign, so on reflection you're probably right about him just not being up to championship level :D
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