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Posh Paddy
05 Apr 18 20:22
Joined:
Date Joined: 24 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 376 | Blogger: Posh Paddy's blog
Little worrying to see a Not Sold/ Vendor Buyback rate of 50% from the first Breeze Up Sale of the year at Ascot today.

As the clock was effectively null and void due to conditions does that mean buyers were less confident to part with their money without the clock to hang their judgement on.

Anyone there, got the inside track?  Should we be concerned?  There must be a reason for the clear mismatch between Vendor and Buyer expectations or do we shrug our shoulders, sure it’s only Ascot....
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Report potentialmillionaire April 6, 2018 7:33 PM BST
All of the above Posh?

I'm afraid the fashion of the game shows a singular lack of imagination by so many of the main protagonists. This has to lead on to the proliferation of the clock watchers because it offers them yet another get out like the first season sire. Who could know the sire would be useless? Well I bought you the fastest there?

If clock is to be everything then I can't see any alternatives to all weather breezing really because the lemmings won't be bright enough to decipher a slog through mud.

How goes the yearling?
Report Somerset Sam April 7, 2018 8:26 AM BST
Are the Breeze Ups all that generally? Should we even have this type of format of sales in the UK?

Souped up baby animals running for their lives over, what 3 furlongs perhaps? Does the whole experience and occasion leave a physical and mental scar on a high proportion of them?

By all means show them at a trot or in slower paces but what's the point of showing them at a pace they'll never be using in competition or in training?
Report Posh Paddy April 7, 2018 11:31 AM BST
The yearling is doing fine, a gentleman to deal with by all accounts.  Still correct and moves well.  The weather hasn’t done us any favours and the sooner he can get out on the spring grass with the sun on his back the better but everyone is in the same boat.  He would be a bit leggy at the moment but he’s got plenty of time to fill out everywhere else.

The half brother made it 2 from 2 the other day which was nice, funnily enough the same night my 2nd Pinhook got his nose in front, so Posh’s Pinhooks now stand at 2 runners 2 winners.  As you can imagine I was unbearably smug that evening.

Apparently there are an extra 400 breeze up lots this year so overproduction is an issue, along with the predictable spike from new players wanting a piece of the pie that comes with good breeze up results last year.  The bottom of the market (is clearly saturated and when you add in a curve ball like bad weather then it appears the wheels really fall off.  Maybe Doncaster will be better, although conditions look likely to be similar.....

As for the merits SS of the format itself, I think it has it’s place, some purchasers love them and they appears to produce plenty of winners.

Anyway PM, how goes it with you?  Have all your foals arrived safe and sound?
Report potentialmillionaire April 8, 2018 12:07 PM BST
What a lovely day at the races Posh. Those sort of days can lift the spirits for sure when everything else has a habit of going wrong.
I have got an interest in one in training at the moment and as I assumed it had all gone horribly wrong I rang the trainer the other day, which is something I have done only about 3 times in all the time I have known him. To be told that the creature is well and not far off a run kept me going for days!
Simple pleasures.

The stud season is as trying as ever. 2 foals, late, gender challenged and nothing yet in foal either.

The weather is pants for sure and I can imagine there are yearlings everywhere looking like welfare cases. Hopefully the sales company's, who must be doing their rounds by now can spread some soothing words.

I think that the press for the breeze up guys is probably as good as it has ever been nowadays. After all you find out very quickly indeed if they have spoilt their charges and it cannot be a format that will survive if it doesn't deliver I would imagine SS.
Report Posh Paddy April 8, 2018 8:21 PM BST
Best of luck with your racing prospect PM.  Fingers crossed she does the business for you in due course and upholds the family tradition. I have to say I subscribed to the “no news is good news” when I was riding the ownership rollercoaster.  If the trainer’s number ever popped up on the phone it would fill me with dread as it was inevitably bad news.

By all accounts everybody this side of the Irish Sea are struggling with late foaling too, with mares slow even to show signs of wanting to be covered let alone go in foal.  Hopefully those mares you have left make it worth the wait and deliver strapping colts.

SS, I have to admit to a vested interest as the Breeze Up market are a significant market for yearlings, indeed two of my former Pinhooks went onto Breeze so their success or failure each year will likely impact what I’ll get for this years offering hence my alarm at the results from Ascot. Hopefully Doncaster will be better....
Report Deltâ April 10, 2018 12:57 PM BST
best so far @ Donny off a 12,000 euro covering


Toronado (IRE) x Miss Mediator (USA)
Ch.F    Consignor: Oaks Farm Stables | E274
Purchaser: Blandford Bloodstock    £210,000
Report kincsem April 10, 2018 5:13 PM BST
^
are you sure you didn't add a zero by mistake. Devil
The dam was rated 75 and her foals Galahad (2014) was rated 67, Peace Prevail (2015) rated 66.
Am I doing it wrong?
Report Deltâ April 10, 2018 8:46 PM BST
Lot 31: ch f Toronado - Miss Mediator (Consolidator)

This filly did by far the fastest breeze according to some reports, so it's no surprise to see her assume top billing as Richard Brown of Blandford Bloodstock fends off David Redvers at £210,000.

Her sale continues a fine association between her immediate family and the breeze-ups; her dam, the winning Miss Mediator, cost 160,000gns as a 2yo and is a half-sister to Tattersalls Craven Sale-toppers Great White Eagle as well as the exciting Kings Shield. The latter, which Redvers knows well as a Qatar Racing colour-bearer, retained his unbeaten record in fine style for John Gosden at Kempton on Saturday.

"She was the one we wanted most," said Brown. "I think she's a filly that really wouldn't have enjoyed that ground yesterday, she's got a low, long stride but she went through it very well. It's not all about the clock but she blew that apart - she was outstanding. It is, afterall, a breeze-up sale so you have to put a lot of emphasis on the breeze.

"I've bought another Toronado filly as a yearling so I like the sire too. It was top whack - we were stretching - but you have to do that on the ones you really like and she was top of the class as far as we're concerned. She'll be trained by William Haggas."


Her sale represents a great result for vendor Mark Dwyer of Oaks Farm Stables and his partner Willie Browne given they paid just £27,000 for the filly at last year's GoffsUK Premier Sale. She is also an excellent advert for her first-crop sire, for whom she is the sole representative today.
Report Deltâ April 10, 2018 8:47 PM BST
STATISTICS

It's the same story - there is plenty of money for the good stuff but the lesser horses are harder to shift. As Mick Flanagan remarked in a recent bloodstock jury, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig. It's a selective market that holds no prisoners, making it tricky going even in the middle market. Having said that, there was a good buzz here throughout with plenty of international activity (13 sold to Scandinavia) to complement a solid showing from domestic owners and trainers.

Offered: 182

Sold: 138 (76%)

Aggregate: £5,528,000 (+25%)

Average: £40,058 (-11%)

Median: £25,500 (-13%)

No. six-figure lots: 13 (2017: 12)


TOP FIVE LOTS

111) b c Kyllachy - Westerly Air, bought by Michael O'Callaghan from Bansha House Stables for £220,000

31) ch f Toronado - Miss Mediator, bought by Blandford Bloodstock from Oaks Farm Stables for £210,000

89) b c Showcasing - Sunrise Star, bought by Cool Silk PS/Stroud Coleman BS from Brown Island Stables for £200,000

173) b c Kodiac - Ermine Ruby, bought by Michael O'Callaghan from Tally Ho Stud for £180,000

5) b c Kodiac - Knapton Hill, bought by P. Harper/Almohameidya Racing from Tally Ho Stud for £160,000



TOP THREE BUYERS

Michael O'Callaghan, 4 bought for a total of £535,000

Blandford Bloodstock, 4 bought for a total of £388,000

Cool Silk PS/Stroud Coleman BS, 2 bought for a total of £305,000



TOP THREE CONSIGNORS

Mocklershill, 12 sold for a total of £669,000

Tally Ho Stud, 14 sold for a total of £638,000

Knockanglass Stables, 8 sold for a total of £298,000
Report blackbarn April 11, 2018 9:14 AM BST
Good reporting Delta, very interesting.
Report potentialmillionaire April 11, 2018 12:47 PM BST
Posh, it's official you're cr@p!

I've finished foaling and unless I'm very much mistaken, water coming out of the back end does not a colt make.

100% fillies is not my idea of a good joke but I daresay there are plenty who will say I had it coming!

At least they've arrived without incident.
Report truehoncho April 11, 2018 8:28 PM BST
Well done PotM. I'm sure they will look great and do you proud come December. It'll be all colts  next year!!
Report Posh Paddy April 12, 2018 10:32 AM BST
Oh PM I am sorry that my powers of positive thinking have failed so miserably.  At least they are well and hopefully by sires that fair well with the fairer sex.  As TH said, hopefully it will be colts all round next year.

It was good to see more positive results at Doncaster this week with a degree of normality returning to the sales ring.  It was also nice to see Goffs make a concerted effort to bring in foreign buyers and their efforts with the Scandinavians in particular appeared to be worthwhile. 

Interesting to read the TDN lay the blame of Ascot squarely at the feet of the vendors and what they had bought to the sale which seemed a little harsh.

Maybe the auction houses could offer a contribution towards the shipping costs to encourage more buyers from the more obscure markets to try and bolster the trickier end of the market?
Report Too Easy April 18, 2018 7:09 AM BST
Tattersalls opening words from last night's report on Craven Sale are "Solid Trade"....looks like a bloodbath to me!
Report Posh Paddy April 19, 2018 7:55 PM BST
After the positive signs from Doncaster it appears things have got a bit sticky again. 

34% not sold over the two days, although it was very much a sale of two halves with Day 1 - 42%. Day 2 - 26%

When the spokesman for the Breeze Up Consignors Association states at the UKs premier Breeze Up sale that “there’s very little depth to the market....Trainers have no orders, it’s been a nightmare” then it’s worth taking note.

In the short term Goresbridge could be very tough and there will undoubtably be an impact on the lower and middle market at the yearling sales and then the foal sales.  Worrying times.Sad
Report Big Black Cat April 19, 2018 8:17 PM BST
Some pretty big numbers at the top end.  Scat Daddy always going to be very popular though given he's not around any more and has produced some very smart and fast horses.
Report Eont April 20, 2018 2:39 PM BST
I think trainers are there own worse enemies and many talk people out of buying a horse from these sales. Wait to the yearling sales then have longer time frame to keep income flow.
If they have a bad one from the breeze ups blame it on the breeze up process not there skill and judgement. Buying a bad horse is easy wherever you go.
Report Posh Paddy May 2, 2018 1:36 PM BST
The show heads back to Tatts this week where no doubt we will see more of the same softening in the middle market.

Interesting to read Luke Lillingston in the TDN today - “"I have met several people in the last year who won't invest in racing, who won't participate, because they feel that if they walk in there they'll be eaten for breakfast," he says. "And, in some cases, they would be. And that's awful.”

Anyway on a more jovial note, congrats PM, a rather taking performance from your one in training the other day.  Hopefully you made the journey to watch her and enjoyed the hospitality accorded to winning connections.  I’m sure she’ll continue to improve and win more races.  Delighted for you.
Report potentialmillionaire May 2, 2018 8:04 PM BST
I do hope that this investigation into 'sharp practice' shall we say, Does have some positive impact because we could do with it. A few things out in the open might help and if people realise that their behaviour is noted and could just bite them one day then maybe there will be some improvement. Mind you Narvick International still seems to do a lot of business. Perhaps it is all above board now? (Naive, moi?!)

Thank you Posh for your kind words. I can't quite believe that the ridiculous caper could actually prove worthwhile. Unfortunately as you well know what comes next is even greater folly. High entry fees, no real chance and a massive chase for that third place. But we all know how it works!
Report Posh Paddy May 16, 2018 1:41 PM BST
Fingers crossed in your hunt for some black type, hopefully lightening can strike twice for you and her family.

My yearling is being inspected by the green team today which should be enlightening given the recent tasty update and current market conditions.
Report sageform May 16, 2018 5:13 PM BST
Charming Kid looked a good advert for breeze ups even at 105k.
Report workrider May 28, 2018 3:22 PM BST
A downturn on the way lads...?.
Report Posh Paddy May 29, 2018 7:58 PM BST
A downturn, correction, whatever you want to call it is undoubtably on the way.

It is worth remembering though that while figures from the breeze ups are down, they are still I believe the 2nd best on record.  Therefore I think a return to 2016 levels is on the way, however increasing selectivity will undoubtably make things trickier for vendors.
Report workrider May 29, 2018 10:58 PM BST
Posh, it couldn't possibly have lasted much longer surely, crazy money for poor horses these last few years, overproduction the result, a few vendors will get badly burnt this year I'd say, hopefully not your good self...
Report Big Black Cat May 30, 2018 11:42 AM BST
Elite have been active at the Breeze ups this year buying 3 horses.  A colt for the Owners Group (In the Cove) in training with Richard Hannon.  A filly who's going to AXOM and a Charm Spirit filly for Elite itself (as yet un named and going to Mr Fanshawe). 50K, 48K and 30K.

The Charm Spirit is very interesting as her third dam was also the dam of none other than HASILI......

Hoping the genes have followed through.
Report Formtwist May 31, 2018 8:27 PM BST
Have you thought about these purchases from the vendor viewpoint, BBC? Charm Spirit covering fee £25,000 plus foal rearing, yearling rearing and breeze up prep plus sale entry fees. Your syndicate buys for £30k. This thread is about the financial pain of yearling vendors if the breeze purchasers have lost heavily, and the prospects for forthcoming sales are not encouraging in that regard. Foal sales likewise.
Report truehoncho June 1, 2018 11:54 AM BST
Pain of vendors lol. What about all the owners buying **** and then never coming back. The reason the breeze ups were down is because the quality of the offerings was down. That is not necessarily a result of overproduction but because of poor production.  I saw every horse at Newmarket and the ones that looked like racehorses (even if their breeze wasn't great) sold vwell/well/ok. It was the worst offering in the last 4 years.The problem is vendors think because its a Kodiak and they paid a lot for the cover/yearling they think they are automatically entitled to a return. 3 or 4 years ago you would only have got a Kodiak into the Craven sale if it looked the part, now because of his status the scrawny ones get in as well. But the buyers are wise to this and leave them there/get them cheap. This goes for all of them. Sorry to take a different view but I think the market held up well enough if you had a decent offering. Stop paying stupid prices for moderate stallions and cut your costs of production then when Elite do you a favour and buy your horses you may make a profit.
Report Posh Paddy June 1, 2018 7:08 PM BST
Finally a forumite who actually had eyes on the ground to give us the inside story.

I appreciate your opinion TH - despite being a Vendor guilty of overspending in the past. 

“The worst offering in 4 years” seems a fairly damning indictment. With yearling prices so high, maybe this is the area Vendors wrongly felt they could compromise on when sourcing their raw materials.  This again probably points to increased selectivity come the yearling sales if not a major softening of the market.

On a personal note my Yearling has been accepted into my preferred sale which I’m thrilled with and represents another hurdle cleared.  As to whether I’ll come out unscathed WR......as long as we get there in one piece, I “should” be ok.
Report Big Black Cat June 1, 2018 8:00 PM BST
My apologies Formtwist-you are quite right.  The Charm Spirit was actually 50K so the breeder will hopefully have made a small profit.  The Kodiac was the 30K one.

There is overproduction but you cant have it both ways?  When I was a lad, the number of animals retired to stud were limited to Classic winners, or winners of one or more other big races. There were less stallions and because stallions can only physically cover so many mares in a season, production was lower. Now, a speedy two year old wins a group race and before you can say Bungle InTheJungle, he's off to stud and a cheap source of speed for breeders.

Theres no easy answers of course.  You can't stop people standing cheap stallions with quick pedigrees that cater for breeders with limited budgets, who want speed.  And everyone wants speed, and winning 2 yos?

I know its not as simple as that, but to be fair, its not Elites fault the prices at the Breeze ups are crap. I don't know what their budget was for that sale, but I know what their budget is to buy a couple of dual purpose horses at a HIT sale.
Report truehoncho June 1, 2018 8:31 PM BST
'With yearling prices so high, maybe this is the area Vendors wrongly felt they could compromise on when sourcing their raw materials'. Bang on PP. That's exactly what happened and they got caught out. I predict the lesson will be learned and next years Craven sale (in theory the best in Europe??) will perform better.
Report truehoncho June 1, 2018 8:36 PM BST
Sorry BBC I didn't mean to not reply. I think over production is sometimes an excuse breeders use for not getting the price they want. There are not many nice horses left behind at the sales that's for sure. Slagging off agents can be fun and they probably deserve it but I will give them this, they don't miss many nice ones.
Report Big Black Cat June 1, 2018 9:00 PM BST
No problem TH-thanks for your considered comments.  I'm glad I'm sitting on the fence and watching rather than trying to sell or buy in a difficult market.
Report Posh Paddy June 4, 2018 9:25 PM BST
https://
www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/latest/from-a-vendor-s-perspective-this-year-felt-completely-different-to-last/333980

This seems to back up your comments TH iro the physical.  Looks like my margins may be squeezed if I’ve to get x rays/vetting and be 15% cheaper assuming mine is a target come sales time.  Oh joyCry
Report truehoncho June 5, 2018 4:33 PM BST
Well PP, I lost a colt foal to joint ill this year and as we only had 2 it was a massive blow to us. During the course of trying to save it(nearly £2k vets bills) one thing became apparent. No matter how quick you catch it, the horse will nearly always (if not always) be vulnerable to unsoundness. That's why I think x rays are important, as there is very little chance of picking it up otherwise. The point to this story is that I have been treated superbly well by the stud which is giving me another cover. All breeders should insist off stallion keepers that joint ill foals should be par of a compensation scheme (i.e free cover) from the studs and the TBA should be on this. It costs the suds next to nothing and prevents affected foals from being sold on for racing. Schemes like this help breeders and the industry and there is no excuse for them not happening. As far as looks are concerned, PotM is the man to champion that cause on here. Many of those entered at the Craven would have been better in a lesser sale where they wouldn't have been compared against much better types. Just look at Come On Leicester and the next Kodiak to her at the Craven. You would have been gutted following her!
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