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20 Dec 17 13:06
Date Joined: 15 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 11,112 | Blogger: sageform's blog
I have looked at all of the Frankel progeny in the RP database that have so far run (in any country) from his 2 crops.
Total to have run: 111.
Of which:
32 won first time out.
17 were second
12 were third
7 were fourth
43 were unplaced.

Many of the ones that didn't win fto have won in subsequent runs of course but they do seem to be good first time. Also worth mentioning that none of those trained by Aiden O' B won and few were placed first time.
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Report Big Black Cat December 20, 2017 1:47 PM GMT
FTO winner over hurdles too sageform (or was that included?)
Report sageform December 21, 2017 8:37 AM GMT
No it wasn't because it ran on the flat a few times and didn't win any of them! I did watch and back the first hurdle runner who looked a real stayer. I didn't differentiate between first and second crop but I get the feeling that the second have been given a bit more time as the pressure on trainers to win with them recedes.
Report kincsem December 21, 2017 9:18 PM GMT
More interesting is the crop sizes.
Report A_T December 23, 2017 10:44 AM GMT
the champion 3yo colt from his first crop. his owners will be delighted.
Report Big Black Cat December 23, 2017 11:42 AM GMT
Pretty good start for Frankel. Two individual G1 winners from his first two crops and lots of well above average but not quite top class animals-including plenty (16) of group winners.

I did see that blurb from Juddmonte about him having more Group winners than Galileo at the same stage-maybe true but his dad had 8 individual G1 winners in his first two crops (according to my research anyway).

Cracksman is a very fine animal, but was his only European G1 winner to date of course, from his first two crops.
Report sageform December 23, 2017 6:29 PM GMT
Eminent could still win a G1 as I see him as a 4yo improver but little else around on current evidence. Nothing really exciting from the 2yo crop. I do think that there a few potential late developers though. Herculean and Wadilsafa were first and second in the same maiden but it is hard to gauge the form while Elwazir and Erdogan are 2 very well bred maidens to watch for once the turf season returns. Cracksman had done little as a 2yo.
Report Big Black Cat December 23, 2017 10:31 PM GMT
Cracksman and Eminent could certainly still improve further-absolutely.  There may be late maturing 3 yo's that we've not seen yet as well.

Cracksman certainly improved throughout the season of course-if he'd been at the same level as he was in the Champion then he'd have probably been a dual Derby winner too.
Report truehoncho December 24, 2017 6:44 PM GMT
Not sure why anyone would think that Cracksman or Eminent are certain to improve. Cracksman has temperament issues and Eminent is not a good looking horse in my book.
Report Big Black Cat December 24, 2017 7:07 PM GMT
Just looking at his current sales returns, then if you've got the dosh, and the mare then he seems a very good option!  His median for both colts and fillies is way above his fee and I'm sure that anyone who has a foal or yearling will hope that will continue.

Obviously Elite are sending MARLINKA (dam of MARSHA) to him in 2018 so you will hopefully have a FRANKEL half brother/sister to her on the ground in 2019. 

Of course, as mentioned earlier, there's nothing of his looking likely to be a superstar in this years 2yo's (at the minute).  He's has Cracksman and Eminent of course, but if he fails to have more G1 winners in the next couple of years, its going to be getting harder and harder to justify the price tags and dare I say it, the fee?
Report duncan idaho January 10, 2018 1:49 PM GMT
truehoncho  24 Dec 17 18:44

Not sure why anyone would think that Cracksman or Eminent are certain to improve. Cracksman has temperament issues and Eminent is not a good looking horse in my book.

What are Cracksman's temperament issues? I havent picked up on them. As far as i'm concerned, he'll be a monster at 4 (in a good way)
Report sageform January 24, 2018 10:01 AM GMT
First hurdle winner now unbeaten in 2 runs. Solo Saxophone showed great resolution in terrible ground.
Report Big Black Cat February 2, 2018 8:32 PM GMT
Will anyone at Juddmonte be getting slightly anxious over Solo Symphony?

Whilst there are other more fancied beasts in the Triumph, would it be a teeny weeny bit embarrassing for all there if Frankel's second grade 1 winner in Europe was a hurdler?

The cynic in me is not surprised at the increase in his fee this year-his sales record is pretty spectacular to be fair, but it doesn't really match his achievements on the racecourse.

If he has another quiet year this year in terms of group winners, and Cracksman either doesn't train on or gets stuffed by Enable, will the bubble start to deflate a bit?

Are the Banstead Manor team raking in the cash now just in case he turns out to be a bit of a dud at stud?
Report A_T February 7, 2018 9:37 PM GMT
there must be some very stupid breeders out there if they're paying an increased fee for an underperforming stallion
Report potentialmillionaire February 8, 2018 1:48 PM GMT
Good grief A_T I can't remember a sire that has made a better start any time recently. If you think that is underperforming then what on earth does successful look like?
You might have ideas in your mind's eye but the failure rates for all new sires- regardless of your expectations- is pretty massive.
Report Big Black Cat February 8, 2018 7:13 PM GMT
I see another winner over hurdles for Frankel today.

The RP seem to be spinning this as something positive however.  Call me a bluff old traditionalist here but isn't this a bit of a PR disaster for the team at Juddmonte?  A stallion who's fee has just gone up to £175K has now bred the same number of G1 flat winners as he has juvenile hurdle winners?

Now of course, both his granddad and dad have produced top class winners over jumps-nothing wrong with that.

But they had a zillion G1 winners to their credit at the time. No 1 son/grandson doesn't.
Report potentialmillionaire February 8, 2018 8:52 PM GMT
BBC exactly what was Galileo's ratio of good flat horses to hurdles? I note that his best hurdler the Grade 1 winner Celestial Halo came from his second crop but if anyone expects any stallion to get near to Galileo's record, I think a little lesson in managing expectations is called for!
Report Big Black Cat February 8, 2018 10:03 PM GMT
PM previous research shows that Galileo had 8 individual G1 winners in his first two crops.  I didn't know about Celestial halo so that makes it 9 Grade one winners!

Galileo has had around 70 group one winners and his catching his dad up.  He has a number of top class hurdlers (SupaSundae the latest of course) but his top class flat horses comfortably outweigh his top class hurdlers. As did his dads.

Im a little incredulous at the spin being put on this to be honest.  if I was charging £175k a pop I wouldn't want to be talking about winners of maiden hurdles.  I'd be wanting to concentrate on Cracksman...

No ones paying £125k to breed a maiden hurdle winner are they? I'd be crying my eyes out to be honest.
Report Koo.... February 9, 2018 12:05 AM GMT
If he sired a 3 day event winner they'd dress it up as a story without it having to be positive or negative.
Report Eont February 9, 2018 10:05 AM GMT

If you look at those statistics you can see how far he is ahead of the competition. Those sort of percentages are amazing and does not take much a little bit of luck really to convert the grade 1 winners to a much higher level. Imagine if a certain trainer in Ireland had a virus this year like they did in France in 2016 Frankel will have a season beyond belief with hardly any Galileo's around.

As for the jumps it is another cheap shot at second rate journalism. Though is relevant because it makes a Frankel rated 83 at the horses in training sales much more desirable than say a Kodiac rated 83. That Frankel could just be a Cheltenham horse and we all know how much national hunt horses sell for at the top end of the market. This makes Frankel a better investment as your potential loss on initial outlay is likely to be less on average.
Report Big Black Cat February 9, 2018 7:44 PM GMT
Eont-lets put this into perspective-Frankel has had lots of group winners(12)and 44 black type horses so far in addition to his 2 G1 winners.

But he should be successful based on the mares he covered! In his first croup, he covered 36 G 1 winners, 14 G1 placed horses, 17 sisters/siblings to G1 winners and 27 dams of G1 winners.  so that's 94/133 mares he covered had some G1 connection in their pedigrees.

So outside of his dad, who spends most of his time covering Coolmores broodmares, he's has had by far the best chance of any other stallion around to produce black type horses.  Without look at anyone elses book, I'd find it hard to believe that any other stallion has had such a stellar book of mares to cover?

So 2 G1 winners out of 94 mares who have a G1 connection in their his first crop.

Frankel was a great racehorse.  No argument at all. There's no point talking about 'luck' or hoping APOB gets a virus, because the truly great stallions are judged by their number of Group 1 winners, like his dad and granddad.

Frankel could still reach something approaching those giddy heights.  We shall see.

BTW you're right, his hurdlers could be top class over timber, but I cant see that his connections would be overjoyed at the prospect given they are selling their colt as a potential classic winning sire?
Report sageform February 9, 2018 8:08 PM GMT
My perception so far is that the first crop were rather forced into action by some trainers who were impatient to show what they could do but the best ones like Cracksman and Eminent were more backward and given time. This year the 2yo's were less prominent but there could be plenty of sleepers ready to show their hand as 3yo's. I would not be surprised if Frankel's progeny turn out more like Sadlers Wells than Galileo.
Report A_T February 10, 2018 1:34 PM GMT
@ potentialmilloinaire I was being sarcastic there seem to be people who are determined to paint Frankel as a failure as a stallion. With the champion 3yo colt in his first crop his owners muse be delighted and the idea that a good horse over hurdles somehow diminishes him is wishful thinking.
Report Big Black Cat February 10, 2018 1:45 PM GMT
I suspect the breeders are paying the money because at the minute he's pretty much a cast iron certainty to make you money at the sales.  The numbers stack up.

He will continue to be well supported by Juddmonte as well and will continue to cover lots of very high class mares.  He is very much the Golden Goose at the minute.

But at the end of the day, he's going to be judged by G1 winners, and he's not got very many yet!  Despite some incredible opportunities.

There comes a point where the rumbling will begin if the Group 1's don't come.  Lots of absolutely stellar racehorses have gone to stud and achieved very little.  Dancing Brave? Ironic isn't it?

His horses over hurdles have won a couple of maiden hurdles-that doesn't make them good horses yet! And as I keep saying, you're not sending a top mare to him to breed a hurdles winner!  I'd still be crying my eyes out.
Report A_T February 10, 2018 2:11 PM GMT
Dancing Brace didn't sire the champion 3yo colt from his first crop.
Report proxygene February 10, 2018 2:32 PM GMT
13076    160    Dubawi
10731    68    Frankel
10329    133    Galileo
9511    39    War Front
8940    19    Scat Daddy
Report Big Black Cat February 10, 2018 2:50 PM GMT
Dancing Brave didn't sire much of note at all, did he?
Report sageform February 11, 2018 1:02 PM GMT
The hurdler (Solo Sax.) runs again today at Exeter 2.30 in a better race so we will see how good he is.
Report Big Black Cat February 11, 2018 1:25 PM GMT
sageform-Solo Saxaphone could be a really good horse, as could the other one.  I've no doubt that over time Frankel will sire grade one winners over jumps.

But I would think its unlikely to be prominent on his adverts at Banstead Manor.

They want Cracksman's and Eminent's, not Solo Saxaphones eh?

Good luck to his connections today.
Report Eont February 12, 2018 12:07 PM GMT
BBC he only needs one more grade 1 winner from his first crop to out preform statistics. Grade 1 dams only produce grade 1 winners at 2.44%. The list you give with grade 1 connections throws at a lower % though is conversion rate is 2.12% at present from those 94.
Report Big Black Cat February 12, 2018 2:38 PM GMT
Interesting numbers EONT

Presuming the conversion rate is similar for non G1 dams/connections?

His best chance would seem to be Elarqarm this year of getting that second winner.  Of course there are sure to be a lot of unraced promising types lurking around.
Report Big Black Cat February 18, 2018 1:02 PM GMT
First winner for Frankel in the UAE yesterday-Immortalised in a 10f dirt maiden.

The horse was previously a maiden with Karl Burke (5 runs, 1 placed) and had run 5 times in the UAE prior to his victory yesterday.

The horse was sold for G37K at the July sale last year. He is a half brother to Temps Au Temps who was 4th in the French Guineas.
Report Big Black Cat February 21, 2018 12:27 AM GMT
RP now reporting that Frankel has two sons at stud-in Cyprus and Pakistan.

Straight Shooter won a maiden for A. Fabre by 7L, but was injured and had to retire.  He has a nice new job in Cyprus. He is a Half brother to Grand Criterium winner Naaqoos

Tango Fire was a thrice raced maiden, sold for G4K and is now in Pakistan.  His dam was G2 placed and is from the family of L'Ancresse and Moonstone.
Report sageform March 18, 2018 11:47 AM GMT
Solo Saxophone ran on well to be sixth at Cheltenham.
Report sageform March 24, 2018 12:50 PM GMT
1/4 shot beaten at Dundalk last night. They don't like the AW any more than Galileo's do.
Report sageform April 14, 2018 3:55 PM BST
Nelson a Group 3 winner for Frankel at Naas.
Report Big Black Cat April 14, 2018 10:36 PM BST
Certainly bred for the job.  3 parts brother to US Army Ranger.
Report sageform April 19, 2018 1:33 PM BST
Two more promising daughters of Frankel appeared recently. Zarkamiya out of Zarkava could be very good but had to work to win at Longchamp today. Qazyna had experience and won easily at Newmarket yesterday.
Report sageform April 19, 2018 2:34 PM BST
Surya out of Sariska not nearly as promising in the Wood Ditton as the 2 fillies above.
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