When I got quite interested in sirelines a dozen years or so ago I soon realised the vast majority of sirelines came by then from the Darley Arabian. The Byerley Turk line was being kept going in GB by Lorenzaccio,who defeated a probably stale Nijinsky in the Champion Stakes. He came from a French line and sired Ahonoora who in turn had two quite successful sons in Indian Ridge and Inchinor,but I'm not clear that either of those had sons who stood at all successfully. The Godolphin line was represented over here by Warning and his sons,quite a few of who went to stud but again I don't think any of them have established a line. Warning himself was a son of the Gns winner Known Fact a representative of a line long-established in the US previously unknown over here I think. It's possible that line is carrying on in the States through other sons of Known Fact's sire In Reality but I haven't noticed any recently. Are we close to only having Darley sirelines ?
It shows the rise in some sire lines and the disappearance of others. With an exercise like this you must pick a starting point. I picked around 1920 and counted the number of offspring from that sire line by decade. The data is from my database of about 382,000 horses.
You will see some sire lines e.g. Nearco (b 1935) increase every decade thanks to Northern Dancer (b 1961) and others. The Peter Pan, Chaucer, Sunstar, The Tetrarch and other direct descent sire lines have disappeared. It is rapidly becoming obvious that the only surviving sire lines are Northern Dancer (from Nearco) and Mr Prospector (from Sickle).
All Sire Lines__________243,861 = 65565_49616_34871_26035_20284_20973_13115_7343__3675__963__52
Sire lines from the 1850s to today
name_________________dob__sireno___total__2010__2000__1990__1980__1970__1960__1950__1940__1930__1910__1900__1890__1880__1870__1860__1850__1840 BEADSMAN____________1855__BEA_____440_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____7_____48_____71_____181_____111_____19_____1_____0 KING TOM_____________1851__KIN_____629_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____1_____3_____40____36_____91_____207_____135_____88_____19_____0 LEXINGTON____________1850__LEX_____520_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____1_____7_____25_____42_____104_____149_____158_____30_____0 NEWMINSTER__________1848__NEW__31301___20__2093__4583__4185__024__3464__3673__2842__1708__721___731___920_____668_____366_____153_____28_____1 ORLANDO_____________1841__ORL____5508_____0____81___123___345__730___661___753___588___480___258___157___270_____256_____171_____170_____92_____8 OXFORD______________1857__OXF____13701____23__630___975__1085__1767_1941_2079__1691___909___647___665___475_____220______55______17______1_____0 RATAPLAN_____________1850__RAT_____700_____0_____0_____0_____0_____2_____14_____6_____19____50___98______96____109_____95______66_____69_____10_____0 STOCKWELL____________1849__STO__173407_1309_58939_39955_24398_13936_9254_8521_5357_3250__1916___1445___1046____733_____436_____248____63_____1 SWEETMEAT____________1842__SWE_____566_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____10_____26_____64_____163_____208_____57____34_____2 THE FLYING DUTCHMAN__1846__THE_____9265____6__1636__1305__709___967__1068__1714__712___369____103___117____107_____95_____56______64_____51_____1 THORMANBY___________1857__THO____2216_____0_____0_____0_____0_____9_____76___270__242___513_____236___121____86_____69_____34______35_____1_____0 TOXOPHILITE___________1855__TOX____1579_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____4_____18___139____251____287___253____229_____103____27_____5_____1_____0 VOLTIGEUR_____________1847__VOL___25691____0___437__1182__2762_3641__3117___3424__1863__1641___2194__1746____851_____279___93_____65____35_____1 WEST AUSTRALIAN______1850__WES____9646____10__1303___872__891__815___984___1321___889___782_____334___238____208____196____120____67____25_____0 WILD DAYRELL__________1852__WIL_____933_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0______2______2_____13____32_____105___126_____174____210____117____82____10_____0 YOUNG MELBOURNE____1855__YOU_____150_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0_____0______0______0________3_____10_____15_____22_____59_____37_____4_____0
Northern Dancer and Mr prospector are descended from the Stockwell sire line.
Mr Prospector - Native Dancer - Polynesian - Unbreakable - Sickle - Phalaris - Polymelus - Cyllene - Bona Vista - Bend Or - Doncaster - Stockwell
In 2012 Dr Mim Bower published DNA evaluation that showed that Bend Or was really a stallion named Tadcaster. That means that every pedigree with Northern Dancer is wrong.
The pedigree expert Harold Hampton (d. 1998) mentions in his book The First Scientific Principles of Thoroughbred Breeding Part 3 that the sire of Native Dancer (ancestor of Mr Prospector) is probably not Polynesian as generally accepted but is more likely to be Challedon who stood at the same stud.
That means that 89.9% of the sires in my database born in the 2000s have incorrect pedigrees.
But the influence of a "sire line" is a bit of a fiction. In a six generation pedigree the sire on the sire line in the 6th generation is 1/126 of the pedigree. In a twelve generation pedigree the sire on the sire line in the 12th generation is 1/8190 of the pedigree.
Here is some work I did a while back.It shows the rise in some sire lines and the disappearance of others.With an exercise like this you must pick a starting point.I picked around 1920 and counted the number of offspring from that sire line by decade
Interesting stuff again kincsem. I haven't got anything like your figures but it does look as though Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector will end up as the only sirelines ( the latter is nothing like as evident as ND in the British Isles,partly due to Coolmore,but seems to be developing an edge in the States. There IS still a bit more variety in the US. Some Nasrullah and Ribot lines still have some import. In addition I think Deep Impact who is having a very significant effect in some areas of the world is from a separate Nearco line. I knew DNA studies had caused problems about early Stud Book entries but didn't realise something as relatively recent as Native Dancer was in doubt. Not only is he the founder of the Mr Prospector line but he was also Northern Dancer's damsire so that changes practically everything. I take your point about the influence of one sire but a lot of modern thoroughbreds would have Native Dancer in particular all over their pedigree.
Interesting stuff again kincsem.I haven't got anything like your figures but it does look as though Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector will end up as the only sirelines ( the latter is nothing like as evident as ND in the British Isles,partly due to C
The Harold Hampton book I mentioned (Part 3, publ 1997) was published posthumously. “Harold recorded these chapters on audio tape and barely managed to have them transcribed before leaving us. …. The Levin Breeders Forum (in New Zealand) undertook to oversee the production of Harold’s book”.
The only photo I’ve seen of Harold Hampton (1912-1993) is in the opening pages of the Part 3 book. When I started looking at pedigrees in the early 1990s I bought the pedigree software package TesioPower and also some books from Jack Glangarry (NZ) who was selling TesioPower. I bought among other publications two small booklets by Harold Hampton, The First Scientific Principles of Thoroughbred Breeding. Part 1 was 40 pages, cost 10/6 NZ, published 1954. Part 2 was 56 pages, originally published 1956 (my copy “Reprinted 1993 from an old poor copy by The New Zealand Turf Register”).
The question about Native Dancer’s sire is speculation by Harold Hampton. “What we have to consider is Native Dancer’s racing ability, and that was of the highest class order, winning 21 races out of 22 …. Now we come to the sire Polynesian’s part in this make up of Northern dancer, almost nothing at the 5th generation, very little at the 6th generation …. But you have to go back to the 7th, 8th, 9th generation, and 10th to find any help there…… I do not regard it as strong enough, nor good enough to give Native Dancer such racing ability with his dam’s background accumulation of the Number 8 family of Beeswing. Now while looking around to try to find out what could be wrong, looking up some old magazines of the “Blood Horse” published in America ….. that had the following adverts about a stallion that stood at the same stud as Polynesian; his name is Challedon. By substituting Challedon in the place of Polynesian we get a whole host of what was beneficial to Native Dancer’s racing ability.
My comment: in the past it was very common to have a mare covered by a stallion and later by another stallion in the following month(s), with the result that parentage is often guesswork.
You might think pedigrees are mainly correct, but I have found many errors in the stud books everyone has on their shelves. I wrote to the authorities and they accepted many and rejected some of my observations. Some were real errors, some were printing errors.
Harold Hampton on page 177 of the Part 3 book mentions a New Zealand owner with a business exporting scrap metal to China. One year he went to Japan on this business and left instructions with his wife and with his stud groom for the mating of his 120 mares and of the visting mares to his three stallions - which mare with which stallion. A week after he went on the trip the stud groom, who had all the instructions, left, and his wife employed another stud groom. The owner was delayed in Japan from September to November. When he came back he did not know which mare had been mated with which stallion. All he could do was make stud book returns based on his original list.
Harold Hampton said at another time he spoke to a visiting equine insurance agent. (Part 3, pages 177,178, 179) Hampton said he thought only about 97% of pedigrees were accurate, with about 3% wrong. The insurance agent said “You can make that 11%. Most of them don’t know the pedigrees of the horses they are dealing with. I have to correct them all the time. You can make your percentage 87% correct and the rest very doubtful.”
Is is possible to trace female lines by DNA. Errors have been found, but stud books have not been/will not be corrected.
The Harold Hampton book I mentioned (Part 3, publ 1997) was published posthumously. “Harold recorded these chapters on audio tape and barely managed to have them transcribed before leaving us. …. The Levin Breeders Forum (in New Zealand) underto