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LQDM
30 Nov 16 15:23
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Jul 15
| Topic/replies: 33 | Blogger: LQDM's blog
Whether we agree with the market or not there are a few stallions who are not in demand anymore.

Nathaniel, Born to Sea, Bated Breath, Canford Cliffs, Casamento, Makfi, Dream Ahead, Excelebration, Harbour Watch, New Approach, Power, Sepoy? ...

Brazen Beau, Night of Thunder, Ivawood, War Command and Ruler of the World's returns are disappointing as well

On the other hand, Dandy Man, No Nay Never, Garswood and Toronado are doing quite well.
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Report truehoncho November 30, 2016 7:33 PM GMT
Power, Casamento, Bated Breath are surly not binned yet are they. Power is doing ok and the other two must have a little life in them.
Report Johnny_Mustang November 30, 2016 8:17 PM GMT
You can add Pour Moi, Lilbourne Lad, Roderic O'Connor to that list. They were 4th, 7th & 8th respectively on the list of Leading European 2nd season sires by winners.
Report ovalu November 30, 2016 9:49 PM GMT
Ivawood??? He hasn't had any foals yet!
Report Formtwist November 30, 2016 10:02 PM GMT
Now, LQDM, I can see logic to many on your list, but Brazen Beau and Night of Thunder haven't even foals on the ground so presumably you have based your judgement on some catalogued mares covered by these sires. Such a small sample of the 109 and 144 mares covered is inconclusive at best and much more likely to reflect weakness of individual mares themselves.I personally have no vested interest , but I recall I think PotM planned to use Brazen Beau. How can you label - or should that be libel - them as binned before next year's foal sales test that market?
Report neill d December 1, 2016 1:46 PM GMT
Presume Coolmore are going to flog theirs to the Chinese.
Report LQDM December 1, 2016 4:16 PM GMT
JM, those three are already gone and not standing in Europe next year, are they?

Ok, I was stretching my judgement a little bit. A lot of this has to do with expectations and vibes, so this is just my opinion.
Darley only managed to book 109 mares to BB and as it turns out quite a few belong to them and have been included in their dispersal. I think he is cold although I really like him.
Power has covered a lot of mares this year so it is not binned yet but needs to come with something good soon.
Jury still out on Bated Breath
New Approach surely has to sire something decent soon, shouldn't he? He has got a lot of chances.

Others in trouble are Paco Boy, Bungle Inthejungle and Gale Force Ten
Report Formtwist December 1, 2016 7:13 PM GMT
A quick analysis of the return of mares, ignoring unregistered mares suggests 88 or so of the 109 Brazen Beau had were not Godolphin owned. It makes perfect sense that their mare dispersal would be those in foal to the inexpensive sires rather than the expensive ones in the majority.
Report Johnny_Mustang December 1, 2016 7:57 PM GMT
I was a little surprised they sold Folk Opera this week. She's a Gd1 winner in foal to Golden Horn. Ok, she hasn't thrown much but has a Shamardal and a Dubai yet to race.
Report Formtwist December 1, 2016 9:26 PM GMT
Well, Johnny-M, we can only conclude that the yet to race pair look less than promising types.
Report jockeyhunter December 2, 2016 2:54 PM GMT
i think bated breath is still worth a chance, Power has thrown a few good/potential 3 year old improvers. Not very impressed with Sepoy.
Disappointed with the results of casemento as some of his offspring looked great at the sales. Foxwedge offspring have seemed to improved at 3 in Australia so might be worth keeping an eye on some late developers. to much of the similar profile of stallion
Report Posh Paddy December 2, 2016 8:22 PM GMT
Given my latest purchase it was only a matter of time before I got involved.

I too think it's too early to cast aside the likes of Bated Breath and Casamento as their stock should improve from 2 to 3.

Also they both covered roughly the same number of mares in their 1st and 2nd Crops so there is nothing to say there won't be a 2yo superstar to come for them next year.

However if they don't have better years next year they will find themselves heading to Siberia and clearly commercial buyers would rather not take that risk.

However what is done is done and they have clearly been "binned" (maybe a year too early).

As the market has clearly become more polarised with one day at Tatts being referred to as a "feeding frenzy", has the value now been bid out of the "commercial" market?

There are only so many nice DarkAngel/Kodiac/Showcasing/Iffraaj/DandyMans to be had and I think there is a real danger that certain pinhookers may have overpaid in their desperation to buy a "commercial" prospect.

We will find out in 9 months time but could it be that ironically, the so called commercial is becoming uncommercial?
Report LQDM December 2, 2016 10:03 PM GMT
It could well be the case PP.

For me the challenge is to predict the next bunch of fashionable sires. Numbers will certainly help the likes of Dragon Pulse, Elzaam and Requinto in the future, but I am not sure they have showed enough yet.
My money (literally..) is on Helmet. At the risk of becoming the next Zebedee (one horse wonder) I think Thunder Snow is a serious horse and providing Helmet's second crop produces a couple of nice juveniles, he should be on track....time will tell.
Report potentialmillionaire December 3, 2016 3:53 PM GMT
Part of this phenomenon drives me mad as I hope it does all right thinking folks. Part of me thinks though that it just saves time!

Most stallions end up useless so one can see how it happens.

The Sepoys of this world though, I mean really? Second leading first crop sire in most categories and more 90 plus horses than all bar Frankel. But cold he is and PP, I think  you've done the right thing to buy a lovely foal by a horse who has been judged a failure before he can actually be classed as one.

A lovely horse is always a nice thing to have at the sales. Chasing the current big thing can be ruinously expensive and the list of them will not remain the same in 12 months, it never does.
Report Posh Paddy December 3, 2016 7:09 PM GMT
I'd also like to add Nathaniel to the list. Did anyone seriously expect him to get 2yos?  At least give him until the end of next year before casting him aside.

Zebedee has cooled considerably LQDM but I'd say he'll be back in 2018. He has covered large books and picked up a good few when Kodiac got too expensive and also when G Force failed to fire.

I quite agree PM, Sepoy has not done bad at all with a whole host of black type performers.  It makes you wonder what a sire has to do, they can't all be/do a Zoffany in their first year.

Having sold a yearling this year by a now hot sire it did surprise me to see a carbon copy of him make x4 as much as I paid for mine as a foal.  You could argue x2 or x2.5 but x4 is plain lunacy.

We still have a major overproduction issue which has been glossed over as Tatts reduce their foal sale by a day and Goffs proposed December Foal sale has not materialised.  Presumably these foals will turn up somewhere (Open/Mixed/Ascot) or is overproduction going to be fixed by simply not providing vendors the opportunity to sell?

Still, the fascinating and exacerbating aspects of this industry never cease to keep me enthralled.
Report truehoncho December 3, 2016 7:31 PM GMT
It seems that the overproduction mantra hasn't reduced stallion fees. I see it very differently. There is plenty of demand at a price, if that price is less than required to make you a profit then it's our costs you should look at. The market at top end is flying and there is a lot of money for the right foal/yearling. Breeders are using first season stallions knowing full well that many won't make money but the one that does makes up for it and some more. One good one every few years keeps breeders in business. That's the model many breeders are working on. The attrition rate is just the cost of doing business. Overproduction is a myth propergated by bigger breeders to try and thin the competition.
Report potentialmillionaire December 3, 2016 8:12 PM GMT
So how are we to explain the zillion horses that can't find homes truehonch?

Are their potential buyers just deciding to go without because they cannot afford the Dark Angels?
Report Posh Paddy December 3, 2016 9:42 PM GMT
"Overproduction is a myth propergated by bigger breeders to try and thin the competition" - Wow, that's a statement and a half TH.

Not sure I agree with this (conspiracy)theory as it's the auction houses that have raised the alarm having seen with their own eyes the number of unsold lots.  Still anything is possible in this game.

Having said that the cyclical nature does mean that while the majority are buying breeding stock, you should be be selling and conversely when everyone is dumping their stock you should be buying. So I can see how when others are not breeding it could be argued that you should be but I don't think there is a myth being propergated so others can line their pockets when the good times roll around again.

We are all grown ups who are capable of doing our own research and whether you decide to breed to a certain mare is your own business. Although I would urge those continually breeding crooked, spindly horrors with no paper to seriously consider taking a pull.
Report truehoncho December 3, 2016 9:44 PM GMT
I appreciate they don't all get sold at the sales PotM, but that doesn't mean they don't find homes. Some are raced by their breeders, some are sold privately and some are given away. There are lots of races available for horses of all grades and the model of funding racing requires lots of racing which inevitably means low grade racing. I realise that you are a lot more sales savvy than most of us which is why I appreciate your views on stallions but some breeders think  that if they can't sell at the sales it's somebody else's fault. I have horses that I bring back from the sales (too many) so I have to put them in training or sell them privately. The problem is that some people breeding don't have the resources to take one home and as far as I'm concerned they shouldn't be breeding horses. You shouldn't just rely on the sales. Of course we then get the issue of just breeding sales horses without a consideration of  the pedigree or the confirmation and then that just makes things even worse.
Report Prima Donna December 3, 2016 9:46 PM GMT
Truehoncho, after reading your latest insights into the bloodstock economy I am left wondering if in fact you are the global warming adviser for Donald Trump Crazy


The attrition rate is just the cost of doing business

This statement should not forget that we deal in live animals, not manufactured goods. The attrition rate is something that needs very serious thought, we are not naive enough surely, to believe that these unsold foals go and live in a nice green field until they are broken in at 4yo to be hunters.

I would be very interested to understand at what price point there is such demand as you state..........
Report Posh Paddy December 3, 2016 9:57 PM GMT
All is forgiven TH, I see your comment was just a bit of bait to tempt Prima Donna out of retirement GrinDevil. Worked a treat. Bravo!!!

PD I trust you and SNS are well.  Nice to have you back.
Report Prima Donna December 3, 2016 10:14 PM GMT
Thank you for your greetings PP, we are both well thank you.

I do keep tabs on the threads on here, and there have been a few occasions when i have almost been tempted to rely. However, tonight I really couldnt help myself..............Devil

Good luck with your recent foal purchase, I have been reading your posts with interest.
Report truehoncho December 3, 2016 10:23 PM GMT
By attrition rate I mean failure to sell at sales not any other type of animal abuse I can assure you. However I am a complete global warming skeptic and applaud Mr Trumps stance on the matter (although I think he is softening now he has won). Welcome back PD.
Report potentialmillionaire December 3, 2016 10:26 PM GMT
Uh oh.

I can feel a b0ll0king coming on.

I've got broad shoulders Prima!

I ageee though that the consequences of a horse not reaching its intended field of function are welfare sensitive to say the least.
If everyone that doesn't have a very good business model or solid contingency plan cut back production then we would solve the problems.
Just giving away a foal -even colts I gather at Goffs- or not having a pretty good idea of a medium term destination for something one has bred is not good enough I think.
Report truehoncho December 3, 2016 10:43 PM GMT
Then there wouldn't be enough horses for the endless AW racing that funds the sport. I'm not sure of the ethics but I understand the finances. What needs to happen is financial support to breeders putting horses in training although I admit I don't know what that would look like.
Report Prima Donna December 3, 2016 10:57 PM GMT
No Pot'm, no b0ll0cking, from me at least! Congratulations on your sales last week, a white knuckle ride from the start I'm sure, but pulled one out of the bag at the end.



What needs to happen is financial support to breeders putting horses in training although I admit I don't know what that would look like.

Truehoncho, what this would look like is improved prize money in the UK. Seemingly the answer to so many issues and problems affecting the sport, yet very little progress made in sorting it out. Of course if there had of been a tote monopoly................
Report truehoncho December 3, 2016 11:00 PM GMT
So we agree, there is no overproduction then.
Report Prima Donna December 3, 2016 11:38 PM GMT
truehoncho    03 Dec 16 23:00 
So we agree, there is no overproduction then.


Another example of Truehonco's unique take on things...!

To be clear Truehonc, No, I don't agree. I think there is a looming crisis of overproduction, of which we have seen the first tremors in the last few months. Sorting out prize money would go a long way to solving the problem, but as there is no big deal on the near horizon I don't think that is going to help short term.

In some ways the threat of overproduction could be argued to be fueling the very thing this thread was talking about,the rapid binning of young sires. If the market is uncertain it is even more tempting to stick to a formula and that can narrow your choices alarmingly.
Report potentialmillionaire December 4, 2016 10:39 AM GMT
Thank you Prima, I must admit I thought I had a more consistent bunch than that, but I suppose I couldn't be immune from the 'near miss is as good as a mile' situation that we all operate in right now.
A couple of the disappointments should be able to salvage something on the track I think, so as long as I get a reward somewhere down the line!

By way of delving deeper. Prize Money is the one root of the problems of over production - sorry to the deny ers out there - and with the first cousin of that particular problem - the binning of stallions - large book sizes are the other.

If a single stallion is sucking away 200+ mares at the age of 3 from the available pool, then the in between year horses who haven't actually failed but are 'year dodgy' will be the ones to suffer and their chances often dashed for good.

The 200 plussers also have their chances dashed, this time by the slew of slow/difficult  horses inevitable to any stallion arising bang at the beginning of their career rather than spread out through the first few years allowing for a more balanced interpretation by potential purchasers.

I don't know if there is a tiny move towards an increased sanity with this though? Ballyhane obviously, Shadwell always, Cheveley wouldn't be able to charge their always toppy prices in my mind if they covered 150 + and Showcasing certainly wouldn't. Coolmore have their image problems with a perception of a reduced buying bench for their stock also so maybe that might keep their books a little lower.

So, and you know who you are, that just makes the 'family connection' in Ireland as the currently most notably transgressors of Pot'm's guide to ethical stallion management. In my book though they had a chance this year to bump up their headline prices to automatically reduce the books of their marquee horses and they didn't take it.

Good luck to the mares that are fourth covers of the day for these types when the step ladders have to come out just to help them climb on board. . .
Report Big Black Cat December 4, 2016 1:59 PM GMT
Never mind stepladders PM...probably needing splints at that rate?

Of course, if artificial insemination was allowed like most livestock breeders use (Tin hat on) :-)
Report LQDM December 4, 2016 2:16 PM GMT
But surely if prize money were much better and breeders had a greater reward either at the sales or keeping their own unsold horses for racing, that money would be directed to re-invest and breed more stock which would lead to overproduction anyway. The key is to find a balance between what we produce and what the market demands and I believe it has to be regulated somehow.
Report Johnny_Mustang June 3, 2017 4:56 PM BST
Johnny_Mustang
Johnny_Mustang 30 Nov 16 20:17 Joined: 18 Feb 07 | Topic/replies: 11,317 | Blogger: Johnny_Mustang's blog
You can add Pour Moi, Lilbourne Lad, Roderic O'Connor to that list. They were 4th, 7th & 8th respectively on the list of Leading European 2nd season sires by winners.



Still slightly puzzled why they got rid of Pour Moi when he was doing reasonably well last year. They've kept worse stallions longer.
Report The Gotchee June 7, 2017 8:26 AM BST
Which sire will come out on top with their first runners in 2017?


Johnny_Mustang 03 Feb 17 12:35
These are the very same mugs who last year suggested, ahem, Casamento, Bated Breath, Sepoy and Nathanial.

Paul the Octopus could have done better.





https://beta.racingpost.com
Johnny_Mustang 04 Mar 17 08:41
No, can't have Cityscape at all. This year's Nathaniel.
Report kincsem June 8, 2017 12:50 AM BST
truehoncho
Power, Casamento, Bated Breath are surly not binned yet are they. Power is doing ok and the other two must have a little life in them.


I've just finished reading Give A Man A Horse by Dianne Haworth, the remarkable story of Sir Patrick Hogan.
He stood the super sires Sir Tristram and Zabeel.
Their Cambridge Stud stand four sires (website) and Power is one of the four.
Another is Tavistock by Montjeu.  They have more faith in Montjeu than Coolmore / the European market.
Report The Gotchee July 30, 2017 8:38 PM BST
Johnny Mustang got that all wrong.
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