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potentialmillionaire
29 Sep 16 13:56
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Date Joined: 17 Mar 10
| Topic/replies: 2,547 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
Some good some bad this year. As ever. Seems to be okay though for them one way or another.

In other news,

Posh Paddy, can I breathe out now? Wink[:wink
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Report Posh Paddy September 29, 2016 7:35 PM BST
Well what do you know, I finally made a couple of quid !  Can't believe you've been holding your breath on my part PM but thank you.

While not a fortune, a €16k increase in value from foal to yearling is a great result in the current climate and fair (ish) value.

Yet again this one goes to a breezer.

I am still of the opinion that the sales picture at this end of the market is gloomy.

We are in a part of the cycle where supply exceeds demand and it appears it is going to get worse.  While it initially looked to be a "Part 2/Silver" problem I believe we are now seeing the effects in the "Part 1" sales.

According to the Irish Field at Fairyhouse: "Allowing for a figure of €10,000 on top of the initial purchase price, there were 54 profitable pinhooks from 211 offered".  That's 25% - hardly champagne time and from a quick look at today's Pinhook table I think that the figures for The Sportsman are at the same percentage.

The breezers that tend to shop at these sales know that with so many unsold lots that a fair few of these are going to be coming to their already saturated market place and they are being very disciplined.

It was amazing to watch the bidding on my colt as there were about 4 or 5 going for him and the bidding rattled along until it hit a certain figure and then they all stopped dead. Queue a nerve racking minute and then a couple of others pushed him on for a few more thousand.

With an even bigger foal crop coming up for sale I am extremely nervous about having a crack again, (sadly I can't afford to play in the more insulated Orby/Book1 category) although not being one to shirk a challenge I will have a go but will have to be very disciplined as those down the line will surely be.  I am fully prepared to come back empty handed.

However I will not dwell on the impending bloodstock apocalypse. Today is a good day and I will enjoy this little victory not just for the small financial reward but also the smug self satisfaction that after last years disaster, this time at least (thanks to good advise from you PM and other forumites, a good prep team and a slice of luck) I got it right.
Report potentialmillionaire September 29, 2016 9:25 PM BST
The Racing Post had 73 of 126 pinhooks in the Orby as successful Posh, I've decided to hang onto that stat if you don't mind. I'm hoping that those profitable ones made a good stab at paying for the lesser lights too so everyone is happy.
I've decided to gloss over the 'other' sale, what was it called Pixiehut or some such? likewise.
There, if one is discriminating with one's recollections everything becomes much more warm and fuzzy.

I'm delighted it went well for you this time and I hope you have isolated a few things you can perhaps improve upon if you go again.

It struck me that as your page was okay, you had the right sex and were pretty good on sire too, your exercise was perhaps an indication that sire power isn't everything. It's lovely when you land on them but I think it's too expensive to chase them in the present, ie when a quick turnover is the aim, or to chase them for the future, when it's impossible to predict.

Breeding or pinhooking I think we aim to procure some strength scope and quality then that is available for all to see come sales time and should cushion us against the worst of the market.

Good choice of sale, well done on that too.
Report Capt__F September 30, 2016 11:05 PM BST
test
Report Posh Paddy November 17, 2016 5:00 PM GMT
Well PM I think I'm going to be testing your theory next year having gone for a cool sire this time. He has some nice paper albeit not overly precocious with the odd hint of National Hunt but he is a smashing sort with a good bit of timber, a good walk and looks more forward than his page suggest he would be.

I was at Goffs for one day only - yesterday - and found it very hard going.  It was even more polarised than I thought it would be and getting close to 2yo types was very difficult. Some were making too much in my opinion - Dandy Man and Camacho in particular.

I gather it was very soft earlier in the week but yesterday seemed strong even if the figures don't quite bare that opinion out.

Feast or Famine looks to be the order of the day I'm afraid.

Good luck with your draft next week, not that you'll need it I'm sure.
Report truehoncho November 17, 2016 5:09 PM GMT
Well done Posh Paddy. He who dares...........
Report Posh Paddy November 17, 2016 5:50 PM GMT
Cheers TH, at least I didn't spend a fortune so I won't have a long way to fall if the wheels fall off.
Report potentialmillionaire November 17, 2016 6:18 PM GMT
Now look here Posh. I noted your purchase and was quite convinced you would be spending your spare cash next week and I know just the foals you should be majoring on!
I am currently at the stage where my foals are littered with quite irreversible faults and won't garner a bid between them.
Your fellow forumites need you - and your cash Cry
Report Posh Paddy November 17, 2016 7:23 PM GMT
Oh no PM, Christ things must be bad if you need the likes of me and my miniscule pot of gold.

Your stallion selection looks great and even your gamble going 3rd season on one looks far from a bad.  The pre-sale gitters of which I am an equally guilty sufferer are a terrible affliction.  I wish you a speedy recovery.  Cigarettes & Alcohol are known to provide some temporary relief.

Best of luck, I'm sure you will be fine.
Report Formtwist November 17, 2016 8:13 PM GMT
Good luck Posh, hoping cool is as the grandchildren describe things, not we breeders....
PM, mine are faultless, but all seem so intent on inflicting gbh on each other that I'll be lucky to get any to the sale at all....
Report Big Black Cat November 17, 2016 11:37 PM GMT
Congratulations PP-delighted you are keeping the wolf from the door

Best of luck to PM and everyone else too.

BBC
Report Posh Paddy November 19, 2016 1:06 PM GMT
Cheers BBC.

FT I'm afraid it's cool in the breeding sense, and cool is being positive. I know JM is not a fan at all.  Still on a budget something has to give.....
Report Big Black Cat November 20, 2016 11:22 AM GMT
Again a question if I may?

When you are looking to pinhook, what are you looking for?  Is it mainly conformation/looks/pedigree/commerciality in your price range or do you look for things like siblings in training (could give you a nice upgrade/price boost) plus other factors too (sex being important of course)?

TIA
BBC
Report Posh Paddy November 20, 2016 1:39 PM GMT
I can only speak from a personal perspective and as someone with limited experience, this latest purchase is just No3 but I'll give you my 2 pence worth.

It must have a nice loose walk, if it can't walk forget it, end of story.

It's generally a numbers game.  Most pinhookers buy 10+ foals and they will be a mixture of commerciality, sire, pedigree, sex and potential updates.  It goes without saying that the more money you have the less compromises you have to make.

I think the less foals you buy the less chances you can take on the future and more you have to buy what is already there iro sire, pedigree and confirmation.

My first pinhook was all about chasing an update which I didn't get in time.  This is now bottom of my list so now I buy offspring out of older mares that have already bred a few winners. This was an expensive lesson to learn but an important one.

On my limited budget I am compromising, It could be on size (my last one was small but was a late foal), confirmation (if they turn one foot out slightly that a farrier and broadening out through maturity can correct), pedigree or sire.

As I said I won't compromise on walk and I also will not buy a filly (had too many crazy ones).  After that's it's a juggling act between sire, pedigree (I generally like a bit of paper too), forwardness, size & confirmation.

Then after all that you have to get value and buy well.  If you pay too much you are at a disadvantage from the start.

This year I've got the best paper I've ever bought, he's the biggest and strongest so far and I've spent the least but it's the dodgiest sire wise.

It's going to be a long 10 months.....again.
Report Big Black Cat November 20, 2016 2:58 PM GMT
Thanks PP

That's actually a very useful insight.  Of course (doh) how an animal walks around the ring is going to be important...A good walker more likely to be a good galloper?

Interesting point about buying foals from winning producing mares-that's obviously going to provide you with pedigree evidence that you may well be buying a decent and potentially winning sort-on paper.  I guess unless you have a very solid distaff race record then a first foal from a mare would be a risk (and more expensive as well!)?  Is this a consideration for first season sires too-would you/do you buy foals from first seasoners? Or would that be too much of a risk?

Do you have a number in your head in terms of profit you are aiming for? Obviously I'm not asking for actual numbers but maybe in terms of percentage (Ok I know it would be a 1000% but realistically...)

Thanks PP

Tough game this-and scary.  I am not a breeder but I recently gave up a full time job with a guaranteed monthly income to become self employed with a variable and partly seasonal salary-so I kind of understand your anxiety.....
Report truehoncho November 20, 2016 4:35 PM GMT
PP. I used a pin hook a few and although I never set the world alight I did make money, certainly more than I have done breeding to date. One of the first things I was told was that you can teach a horse to walk. I promise you it is absolutely the case. The thing is, you cannot do it on a walking machine and you can't do it 6 weeks before a sale. You need to get your yearling on a rope 3 or 4 months before the sale and get him on the road (a hilly one if you can. Get him walking as fast as he will walk for as long as he can without breaking into a trot. The last 2/3 weeks before the sale he should be managing 4/5 even 6 miles without any trouble. Large breeders just don't have the time for this sort of handling but if you only have one or two, I promise you you will see the benefit. Also a bit of long reigning really helps as well. Since I have been breeding (about 5 years) I just can't find the time myself but I have 2 foals for next year that I will be making time for it.
Report Posh Paddy November 21, 2016 8:54 AM GMT
TH, thanks for that, I have to admit I did not know you could "teach" a good walk.  I knew you could improve a walk but I thought you had to have a half decent one to start with.

It is not me who does the prep though, I leave that to the experts but I will definitely get their views on it.

I wish you the best of luck with your foals.

BBC I have not bought one by a first season sire, generally you are paying a premium for them and with so many of them in recent years I couldn't be certain of landing on one of the popular ones come the yearling sales. It is an added element of uncertainty I can do without.

There are plenty of pinhookers who love them though and I would very much be in the minority.

In respect of the distaff side, it's just another part of the puzzle.  At the Sportsman this year there was a Requinto colt stabled close to us that had been bought for €10k as a foal.  He was a second foal, there was no black type under either 1st or 2nd Dam and the 2nd Dam had only bred a couple of modest winners in Italy but he was a stunning individual and made €40k+.

As I said - sire, pedigree, forwardness, size, confirmation - different people attach different weight to each of these.  Most wouldn't touch the one I bought because of the sire but pedigree, strength and price outweighed that for me although it is a concern.  Still if I got one with a better sire I would have to compromise on something else and generally speaking if you've a nice animal you will get rewarded.

Do I have a number in mind in terms of profit?  Answer - any gratefully received.  If you buy well you have half a chance.

This is a hobby for me and a way to be involved in the sport/industry I'm interested in. I know my break even number (sales price +€8k) and I hope to hit that. Anything above that is a bonus.  It is a gamble though and the old adage applies - don't bet what you can't afford to lose. I do insure mine iro wind and mortality though, just in case....

Those that do this full time as their sole source of income are brave souls indeed and have my full admiration.  I am just an enthusiastic amateur.
Report Big Black Cat November 21, 2016 12:31 PM GMT
Thanks PP

I used to think I was an enthusiastic amateur-but now you have decreed yourself so, and are actually doing it for real, I will downgrade myself to a mere 'enthusiast'.

I'm very lucky-I pay £150 a year for my racing entertainment and everyone else takes the risks and makes the tough decisions.  Probably a good thing to be honest.

Elites Racing Manager and a few others decide on the coverings, and  I can sit back, add the cross on TrueNicks and see what the results are!

We very much sit at the top table too, or very close to it.  The club spends (I assume spends) a lot of money on decent stallions.  Exceed and Excel, Acclimation, Cape Cross, HRE, Pivotal, Dansili and Speightstown are the sires of some of out HIT-and they're not cheap. 

We did use Galileo once too, High Chapparal and Oasis Dream (all for Soviet Song....

I too have much admiration for those of you taking the risks and making the decisions and compromises....its not like you can afford to make a few mistakes like The Godolphins/Coolmores of the world...
Report Posh Paddy November 25, 2016 2:04 PM GMT
BBC I wish you the best of luck with Elite, they certainly don't scrimp on their stallions which makes them all the more interesting to be involved with.

On another note, well done PM.  Glad to see you made it out in one piece with a few quid in your pocket (albeit leaving it late to hit the home run).

How did you find the market?
Report potentialmillionaire November 25, 2016 9:04 PM GMT
Thanks Posh.

I am not sure I can comment on the market as I only had a few foals and I think it's best to Trickledown and the likes to comment on such things when they have the volume to create a reliable sample.

I had a foal by a current stallion and it really is amazing how much effort they make to like them! That probably worked in my favour. My most popular foal was referred to as the nicest foal by the sire by a number of viewers but it was early on so may have acted as a pathfinder for the others. You can't have it all though.

I also had a pushing lovely filly by a sire that they weren't beating doors down for and she only had 12 shows. Not enough page admittedly and she was liked by those that looked so it was nice to get her moved.

They were purchased by proper people so I must be doing something right.

I was tickled by one foal buyer who asked me who had bought the yearling half to one of my foals so I told them the trainer (top) which didn't help so I told them the owner (wealthy) and that wasn't what was required.
Turns out they wanted the agent involved. Presumably so they could crack an early deal for next year.
Bless their crooked cotton socks. . .
Report Big Black Cat November 26, 2016 7:50 AM GMT
Thanks PP

Elite are just about to announce our matings for 2017 so I will post when I know myself.

Glad you and PM have made a few quid and are ahead of the game....

All the best
BBC
Report Posh Paddy November 26, 2016 8:14 AM GMT
PM I noted the purchasers of your foals. A veritable who's who of pinhooking royalty no less.

In respect of your final anecdote, it never ceases to amaze me how certain practices are just accepted as being part and parcel of doing business in this industry which if discovered in any other, would (to put it politely) be very much frowned upon.
Report truehoncho November 26, 2016 9:26 AM GMT
Well done PotM, it seems by PP post you had a good sale. I was there for the first few days and bid for a couple of fillies but didn't get a look in. I thought it was a good sale and as you say, if it was the right stallion an odd fault (sometimes more than that)was being overlooked. There has been a lot of doom and gloom about the market, but if you use the right stallion (not one you think is should be the right stallion) there is plenty of opportunity to make money.
Report Johnny_Mustang November 26, 2016 9:31 PM GMT
Cracking result PotM, well done.
Report potentialmillionaire November 27, 2016 11:49 AM GMT
Thank you JohnnyM, bit curate's eggy I'm afraid and I was partially disappointed.
However, live to fight another day and partially delighted also!
Report workrider November 28, 2016 4:58 PM GMT
What a brilliant thread,well done PM,great to see people discussing things in the open and helping each other .
Report Posh Paddy February 9, 2017 4:23 PM GMT
Well what do you know, the financial disaster that was my first pinhook has only gone and blimmin won - albeit at the 14th time of asking and off a handicap mark in the 40's.  Still I will not dwell on these negatives as the little lady has clearly given a lot of joy to her persistent connections and is obviously tough as teak to take so much racing having been on the go since May last year!

So Posh's Pinhooks now read- 1 runner 1 winner!  The Milky Bars are on Meeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!LaughGrinCool
Report Posh Paddy August 30, 2017 9:07 PM BST
Those selling at Doncaster at the Goffs Premier Sale seemed to do well as by my numbers there were 103 profitable pinhooks (purchase price + 10k) out of 181 = 57%.

Again the market looks top heavy with those with the bigger wallets scrambling for Kodiac & Dark Angels which has raised the average from last year by 15%.  The Median however did rise by 9% which is positive.

Will be interesting to see how the Silver Sale goes tomorrow which has 20 lots less than last years sale (12%).

Any forumites in attendance?
Report potentialmillionaire August 30, 2017 10:07 PM BST
I was there today Posh. Not tomorrow though but if you need any info from today I can certainly discuss the coffee or the comfort of the bench seats in the ring (lack of)

Is your yearling prep currently on track?
Report Posh Paddy August 31, 2017 5:04 PM BST
Hi PM I saw a couple of ones you bred where sold on again, hopefully you're happy with their prospective new homes?

How did you think trade was?  From the outside looking in, it looked good, although you never really know what is going on behind the scenes.....

The figures from the Silver sale today are up from last year with the Median back up to its 2015 year level which is encouraging.  By my numbers there were just 9 profitable pinhooks (purchase price + 10k) out of 37 = 24%.

Yearling prep is going well.  I went and saw him 10 days ago and I'm happy with how he's going.

I remain hopeful at best.  Every time I start to get optimistic I get bought down to earth with a bump like when one of the breeze up boys saw my paper and chuckled saying cheekily that he'd make "a cracking 5yo" or just yesterday when I mentioned the Stallion mine's by to someone and his comment was bluntly "You're F###ed!" which hopefully was a tad harsh.

Still if he doesn't sell, I've decided I'll race him myself as I'm more than happy with him (through my rose tinted glasses).

Hope all is well with you and that your draft of foals this year are all smashing sorts.

Report proxygene August 31, 2017 8:35 PM BST
Confused
Report potentialmillionaire August 31, 2017 8:55 PM BST
I must say Posh that on the rare occasion I rock up at a yearling sale I nearly always regret it. I find it very hard to get a handle on them and yesterday was no different. Without doubt though there were classier sorts there than was the case in the past but it wasn't always easy to see what was going on! Actually today's sale I think read almost as well as it was a lesser sale with fewer agendas and I thought from the figures it looked quite buoyant.
The 'dead' sires certainly were selling yesterday if the individual was up to it. I get more and more and more angry about the excessive dogma that surrounds the game, this sire's dead, that fault's insurmountable etc etc. Sure it's nice to hit fashion on the nose but you're nothing without a bit of imagination in this or any other game and blinkers never help.
I had a lovely foal last year that didn't make lists, didn't have a trendy sire, had a cold broodmare sire etc etc and duly sold for sixpence. The purchaser stole it from me, couldn't believe he had and has duly reaped his 400% pay day.
A lovely guy to deal with, I couldn't be happier, more fool the naysayers.
The above colt looks a proper lump, I hope he walks well for you too.
Don't be racing him that really is a way to the poor house! Take the profit or the hit.
Report Posh Paddy September 2, 2017 7:42 PM BST
PM, I think you might have "stolen" the Mare initially yourself? Surely you were generously passing on your good fortune?

At least Mr B will hopefully come back and see you in November to see if he can repeat the trick and others will have noted his success as well and duly beat a path to your door too.

I'll find out if my own bit of "imagination" will pay off or not in due course I suppose.  It will be interesting to see if the sales momentum continues, next stop Tattersalls Ireland's new Yearling sale at Ascot, like we needed another Yearling sale.

I do miss the buzz of ownership and if the excuse came to have another go at it, I'm not sure I could resist the temptation even with all the financial headaches it could bring.  The bigger worry would be the displeasure of Mrs PP to be honest!
Report potentialmillionaire September 2, 2017 8:25 PM BST
Posh I've never stolen anything in my life, I pay over the odds for everything!

I never begrudge a profit on my foals because it would be super short sighted if I wanted my customers to lose money. If my mares are able to produce yearlings that can make a bob or two then they are the right mares to own.

Well if you end up keeping your colt then the lure of a big fat sale to Hong Kong I daresay is the way ahead and as they say, the dream continues!

I'm sure you're sufficient a salesman to weave a spell over Mrs PP but I shall hope for a profit later in the month though for now.
Report Posh Paddy September 12, 2017 8:01 PM BST
Cheers PM, fingers crossed for 2 weeks time. Hopefully Plan A is all that is required.

Tatts' yearling sale at Ascot was encouraging with by my reckoning 6 profitable pinhooks out of 23 = 26%

Next up - Tatts Ireland in a week. Hopefully the positive vibes continue.
Report Posh Paddy September 20, 2017 8:27 PM BST
Tatts Ireland Part 1 has just finished and by my numbers 86 out of 171 - 50% of pinhooks were profitable which is excellent.

Day one was notably stronger and buyers weren't hanging about, in the first hour 9 out 12 were making their purchase price + 10k.  Day 1 finished on 57%, while day 2 slipped to 45%.

Will be interesting to see how Part2 holds up tomorrow.
Report Posh Paddy September 21, 2017 8:41 PM BST
Tatts Ireland Part 2. 9 out of 59 - 15%. Back down to earth with a bump - ouch.
Report workrider September 26, 2017 11:35 AM BST
Tatts Newmarket yearlings,must been some sleepless  nights for the pinhookers,massive outlays for foals and needing the market to stay right at its top just to break even.
Report potentialmillionaire September 28, 2017 2:40 PM BST
I'm always a bit wary of a single name that I don't know on a purchasers slip.

Does it indicate a sale?

I hope so. If so then Posh I am glad you are replenished for this years foals and the hunt for the 'big one' can continue!

Well done.
Potm
Report Posh Paddy September 28, 2017 4:27 PM BST
Thought I'd got out in one piece, albeit disappointed.

Unfortunately things just got complicated Cry
Report yer ma September 28, 2017 5:30 PM BST
If its wind - i've had one changed from a 3 to a 2 on re-exam. Varies vet to vet.  Tricky though  GL
Report potentialmillionaire September 28, 2017 6:45 PM BST
Oh gosh I.I.I.W good luck.

I remember having a make or break yearling sell a million years ago at Tatts and it failed for the purchasers vet so was put up to the panel. Unfortunately they ran out of daytime so it was put off until the following day. If it was to fail I was to go under, simple as. Long long night! Thank God, I'm still here (no comments please) I am sure you will come through by thick or by thin Posh.
Report Posh Paddy September 29, 2017 8:32 PM BST
Well at least I had some insurance for such an eventuality so I'll get something back - 40% of this yrs outlay.

Interestingly the insurers have offered me the opportunity to keep him and take a reduced pay out if we can agree on how much the "salvage" is worth.

Will need to let the dust settle and do further investigation before deciding on whether to take the money and run and throw the pinhooking dice for what would be the final time or rekindle the ownership fire and live the dream once more.

The sensible thing to do would be to take the money and never go near a horse again, but where would be the fun in that....Crazy
Report potentialmillionaire October 1, 2017 7:17 PM BST
Remember the costs of surgeries Posh as it deteriorates whilst in training! Unfortunate case scenario of course but if it's a proper failure then perhaps improvement/fuss about nothing is not a particularly likely scenario. To add even more cynicism to the mix, older mare, sire line with a history, foal sale by an untypical foal seller perhaps are points that would worry me about throwing more money at the issue. Perhaps I'm a pessimist though. . .
Report Posh Paddy November 19, 2017 7:53 PM GMT
Well after failing to come to a deal, with the Insurance company I let them take him away and took the money, although not before thoroughly reviewing my insurance paperwork and realising I was due 85% rather than 40% of this years outlay!

Sadly though, on the very eave of the Goffs Foals sale, I've completely lost my Mojo for it, hopefully it will return, but the thought of turning up on Day 3 which is now Day 1 as a purchaser fills me with dread.
 
Day 3 was my usual hunting ground and with dry powder after everyone else has had 2 days to spend their hard earned I could usually find something.  The fact everyone is now starting off on Day 3 makes me think it will be a complete waste of time as my fellow pinhookers may well completely lose the plot.  Maybe my enthusiasm will return by Saturday, if not I'll keep my dosh safely under my pillow until it does.

Best of luck to everyone who is buying and selling in the coming weeks, especially PM.
Report potentialmillionaire November 19, 2017 8:57 PM GMT
Well done Posh, result. Such a relief to be able to move on and consign a less than satisfactory episode to history.

If you are able to get to the sale then go you must. Examine your Mojo more when you've had time to watch a few and see how you feel.

A horse sale is always a great place to be, except of course when you are trying to sellCry
Report Posh Paddy November 25, 2017 8:03 PM GMT
PM, thanks for the encouragement, it seemed to be the kick I needed.

Got my myself up to Goffs today and after being underbidder on no less than 3 occasions and having petty much given up all hope, I managed to pick up the last one on my list.

Gone for a FSS this time, nice strong early type but had to sacrifice a bit of paper to get him on my limited budget.

The saga continues for another year....
Report Formtwist November 26, 2017 8:22 PM GMT
Congratulations and the best of luck, Posh. Might just get a decent upgrade to that paper given a bit of good fortune.....
Report Posh Paddy November 28, 2017 12:46 PM GMT
Thanks FT, any update would of course be gratefully received although I'm not counting on it. I've already learnt that lesson.....
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