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value bet
20 Jun 18 01:02
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,954 | Blogger: value bet's blog
The Science of Second up Betting.

Our live and free triple headers is on again today around Australia.

Many horses are media favourites, some-times odds on after a good first up performance, only to run poorly 2nd up.

Why?

Let’s put this in lay-man’s terms.

If you are 30-40-50-60 years old and after a long break, you play one of your favourite games, first up.

It may be cricket, soccer, tennis, squash, running or such.

You will surprise your-self and put in a jolly good showing.

However 3-4 days later you practically cannot walk and are sore for many more days.

It is the same with a horse, they run well, but are sore for the next 10 days, go well down in fitness and then need another 10 more days to

catch up and pass their first up fitness levels.

But media jumps in and their prices are way under to their fitness levels.

Bet in between these periods and you are at a bigger risk of losing.

If you use a 2nd up short priced horse as you think “this has to win” as your standout, so you lay another horse; you are in serious trouble.

In  Australia 2nd up horse recover in around 20 days and in the UK it is closer to 30 days plus because of different training programs.

I have explained this science of winning 2nd up to many trainers.

What they need to do is firstly work on re building a horses blood count with Iron, B12/B15 injections and folic acid or

similar type additives they use.

The horse will lose weight after its good first up run, so its strength factors are down, they need to re build that and then start on getting the horse

fitter then after another 14 days.


2yo these rules does not apply when they start racing, they are injury free, it is all new to them and they only just want to run.

I hope this helps your 2nd up betting, best rule is stay out.

The media say it will be fitter, they are wrong, it is less fit.

Regards

James
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Report value bet June 20, 2018 7:57 AM BST
I may be back about midnight for Asoct, see how I feel.

I had internet issues today but did 19 races around Australia live in the mounting yards, with 17 89.50% top line winners.

Spent $6k on exotics and got back $14K: profit of $8k

8/8 lays also in.

See you later?

James
Report value bet June 21, 2018 1:16 AM BST
Hi mouse, re your probable bets I think you banked on an odds on horse 2nd up in a very short time, to walk it and got caught on a lay as it lost.

And other could of been CRAFTSMAN odds on with 1-2-3 horses on 99% fit and winner on 98% fit.

Craftsman never had an edge in fitness yet was long odds on against some other nice horses, but he did have good winning form.

You need a favourite fitter, no as fit as another group of runners.

To me it was a watch race, although he seemed to perform under his ability, but easy to say after the race.

Maybe something in the papers today re his defeat.

Look for value.


Another race the 1, very short, 2nd up and sweating up badly, that was the race that the 3 won easily, the 1 ran near last.

Again 2nd up in a likely high pressure race and folded.

2nd up betting will turn your hair grey and empty your pockets, just stay out.
Report value bet June 22, 2018 12:33 AM BST
I will start in my early mornings, doing some live USA fitness tips, it's a good coverage of up to 10 minutes per horse as race courses

have their own broadcasting networks.

Our free Saturday triple header is Flemington, Randwick and Doomben, over 400 horses to rate in an order of fitness %.

We will win again.

Cheers

James
Report value bet June 22, 2018 12:59 AM BST
I am not an animal,think of the new challenge.

Breakie time USA

Lunch time Australia

Bed time  UK

Would push 1,000 fitness ratings per day.

Now that is really cool.

Off to work soon, wahoo.
Report value bet June 23, 2018 10:19 AM BST
Good afternoon members a tough day today with 19 races I did live from the mounting yards around Australia.

I would of done more but the timing of Melbourne, Sydney and Doomben wasn’t the best, but we got by.

Exotics we invested $10,000  (5,000 pounds) to get back $32,000 (16,000 pounds).

Profit was $22,000 or 11,000 pounds for the day, we sure did get some big ones in.

Our ROI was over 200%

Out lay strike rate on unfit horses as 14/14 for 100%

Our win strike rate fitter top line was 84%

Back again during the week.

3 punters sent in photos from on-course for free fitness ratings, hours before they raced some-where in Australia.

All good, back on Betfair live for a few races tonight.

James
Report value bet June 25, 2018 6:34 AM BST
I did really well in USA live today from 8am  - 10am.

Our coverage is excellent with 2-3 minutes on small fields to work out the fit winners.

Had plenty of views from punters whom were left scratching their heads, wot the f&@# is this bloke all about.

But left my winners to the talking.

Building this up when USA puntings goes open slather more to the world soon.

As they go pretty hard from go to woh, it is not too bad as fitter horses up front as usual.

Easier then Hong Kong, whom have double the numbers and high humidity conditions.

All good for future services when pools are big.

James
Report value bet June 25, 2018 6:56 AM BST
Live only 2 days last week and $30,000 (15,000 pounds profit)

Back on Betfair bed time stories soon.

James
Report value bet June 27, 2018 7:55 AM BST
Back again for some live tips in UK, maybe tonight?


Wednesday 27th June 2018 Summary.

Nice work today Triple 3 states header on 25 big races, 300 horses in a percentage of fitness.

We spent $11,000 and returned a great $38,000, profit $27,000 ($13,500 pounds)

250% ROI

14 lays for 100% strike rate.

Back again Saturday.

James
Report value bet June 27, 2018 8:13 AM BST
Lays

Win  803 / 800 Winners - Strike Rate 99.63%

Place lays

803 / 774 winners - Strike Rate 96.40%

James
Report value bet June 27, 2018 10:30 AM BST
VIDEO SENT FOR FREE FITNESS ASSESMENT SOMEWHERE IN AUSTRALIA.


From: James Conway [mailto:jconway]
Sent: Wednesday, June 27, 2018 7:16 PM
To: 'Jami'
Subject: RE: VIDEO Fitness of our Horse

Thanks Jamien,

•    Fair type, good blood count

•    Good strength factors to assist his muscle build up.

•    His fitness is well done but a good balanced fitness chart to work with.

•    3-4 weeks when fitter a chance in a race he can win and good luck.

•    Rating 96%

James



From: Jami
Sent: Wednesday, June 27, 2018 7:02 PM
To: jconway@
Subject: Fitness of our Horse

Video or our pacer that trialled at Menangle on Tuesday.
Would you be kind enough to assess it?

Regards Jami
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