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value bet
14 Jun 18 00:06
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Date Joined: 12 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,285 | Blogger: value bet's blog
It had to happen, some 8 months since last pay out, but I am kicking myself.

How I slipped my guard:

I know one of the owners of a horse having its 1st start for Chris Waller and won like a real nice horse.

Their pockets will be lined with her in the future, Bubbles N Troubles.

Why?

Firstly they are talking Listed or Group racing in the spring.

That puts her value up to nearly a million, this is if offers have not come in the last 24 hours.

Then any yearly will be worth $500k - 1 million plus easily if she wins a Group  race.

Then if she goes into the brood mare sale when say 4, she will be sold forl over a million.

With only 5 owners, there is their house paid and stilll money left in the bank.

So with all this happening, 10 minutes later I let my guard down and got caught on a 50/1 lay after 8 months.

Cost me $6,500 or 3,200 pounds, but I put my head down and keen to keep my 6 months win record in tack.

We finished the day $4,000, 2,000 pounds up for the day 30% ROI.

A big lesson learnt as wanted to get to 1,000 straight lays.

Stats now 775 lays for 772 winners, strike rate 99.61%.

I hate losing!

James
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Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:33 AM BST
Exotics returned $AU18,300  9,150 pound

Cost because of the lay pay out was larger, $AU14,300, 7,150 pound

Proft was $AU4,000 or about 2,000 pound.

91% of top line fitter horses won.

Great profits if you did not do the lay?

FYI


I do not know who these horses were, but rated for members for free.

They sent me photographs from on course and from the stables.



Horse photos sent in yesterday from MOBILES live on-course, no one knows the horses,

not even me, except the punter.



On-course Fitness Ratings, photos sent via mobile for free assessments.



13-06-2018



·       1345  94%  MR

·       1346  96% MR

·       1347  98% MR

·       1348  98% MR

·       1349  92% MR

·       1350  98% MR



·       1111   98%                  Bruno

·       1112   90%                  Bruno

·       1113    98%                 Bruno

·       1114    96%                 Bruno


I have also been sent fitness photos of horses from USA.

You make up your own code for each horse and for easy find, add a name.

I post up on my web site.

A great edge for thoroughbred or harness or dogs anywhere in the world.

James
Report value bet June 15, 2018 1:10 AM BST
As I said I rarely bet unless see big overs in exotics and an unfit favourite.

If I bet all day, I would not have a system, probably the best ever seen.

Example:

I was happy my friends have a million dollar horse and got wrapped up in all the excitment with sms's coming through.

What happens next.

I call the 9 a lay at 50/1

Emotions got the better of me and interferred with my work.

thanks
Report value bet June 18, 2018 1:07 AM BST
I can't remeber when we last lost, it would be sometime in 2017.

I keep finding that big odds horse in the exotics, like one race on Saturday with a 4,000 pound return.

2 weeks ago I got the trifecta all at 20/1 - 20/1 - 20/1 all from my inside fitness edge with the Chris Waller stabe (WINX) that ran 1-2-3 then also found the 7.

It paid 18,000 pounds!

We don't lose.

I get offers each month from punters/investors wanting to stake me for 50%, they put the cash up, but that is not fair as I see it.

I do all the work and they take it easy even though they stake me; with a 90% chance of winning, so 1st week I could set up years of work for yours truly.

Run as a 5 day business, my returns are 45,000 pounds per week, with a less that 50% betting costs (Over heads) and tax free.

That is a very good business module.

On only a few days a week work I am nearly 1 million pounds in sales (returns) and that can double.


Between now and Christmas I have a few business plans on the go and this will see my site close down and I will go the punt.

Pushing up to 70 now, so I am no spring chicken.

My movie cowboy script is very good and heading to Hollywood, it will turn out a trilogy, then I have 4 others half done.

Such is life.


James
Report value bet June 18, 2018 1:38 AM BST
How The Science of Fitness wins.

There had to be an easier way of winning on the punt?

I won many dogs races because my dogs were fitter.

The multi-million dollar pro punters are now training up spotters around the world to get a fitness edge from the yard.

Fitness on your next bet is not in worldwide form guides and punters betting without this information is down at least 70%
of the information you need to win consistently.

Yet, only a hand full of people in the world know how fit a horses, don’t answer trainers because 90% don’t even know.

We have not had a losing day since 2017 and I really need to knuckle down and go the punt soon.

Your speed maps are wrong and are made up of fitter horses making the pace, or fitter horses running all over the top.

What our tips and see how many are leading!

I would say that just about everything ever writing for punters in the last 400 years is 70% wrong because they do
not have fitness ratings to include in their stats to get it right and never will have.

What is punting really all about?

Winning on the punt is not about backing 1 horse, it is not about backing 3 horses,  it is about using fitter horses as commodity numbers
to return a profit with the right strategies.

You can hedge though my first 3 fitter horses and possibly return a profit.

You can definitely lay my unfit horses with a win strike rate of 99.62% and 96.32%, but that is every bodies cup of tea and I think some of Betfair’s
How to Use information needs a more simple lay-man’s videos for new punters.

They take it for granted that new punters understands the terminology, they don’t so give it away.

Martingale punting on fitness works, win or place.

Running doubles or quadrellas work using fitness as a leg up in the first legs.

But the real big slice in the pie is the exotics of trifecta’s or Pick 4’s

I continually find that long prices horse that sometimes blows these dividends out of the water.

You just need the right strategies.

With a 86% top line 5 fitter horses winning and another 10% of my next best 2 fittest winning, that equated to 96% of fitter horses winning.

And that information is not in your form guides.

I continually call my first 2 fitter horses as best chances and this stands up nearly all day with both bankers or either one your leg up to in cheaper exotics.

My service caters for all punters, Quinella or place bets they can show a profit.

So that’s just about it punters and no need to ask what a fit horse is as I cannot explain to you.

Cheers

James
Report The_KAMIKAZEE_DRINKING_MACHINE June 23, 2018 2:41 PM BST
Do you really expect me to believe you have a 99.61% strike rate?
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